Desenio Group AB (publ) (STO:DSNO)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 16, 2022

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Thank you very much operator, and welcome everybody to Desenio's Q4 results presentation conference call. With me today, I have our CFO, Kristian Lustin. Presentation materials are available on our website as usual, and in the end, the presentation will follow by a Q&A session. On page two, please. In Q4, let's say it's increased to 25% to SEK 1.227 million for the full year 2021 compared to the previous year, but decreased 5.6% to SEK 390 million for the Q4. We achieve this in a market with lower than normal search volumes. In contrast to the higher than normal activity in Q4 2020.

The difference in search volumes was reflected in organic net sales, which decreased by 30%, excluding Poster Store, which was consolidated from December 16, 2020. However, the conversion rates increased by 13%, while average order value decreased by 5% in the Q4 compared to 2020. Our active customers amounted to 3.8 million, which is up 64% from last year. During the quarter, we improved our operating efficiency, including areas such as marketing. More importantly, high sales volumes for the group compared to Q3 2021 translated into higher profit margins so as we leveraged our fixed cost base. The adjusted EBITDA margin increased to 15.3% compared to 12.2% in Q3 2021.

We also took a few steps in our journey from being a Nordic to lately European and now also North American-based company. The team in North America has started to take form under the leadership of Michael Kolanczyk with the goal to build a full-fledged operation up there. We take this step after having delivered net sales in the last two years of almost $100 million in the USA and Canada without any local presence whatsoever. The business in North America will be fully built on the Desenio's business platforms with its own fulfillment center, which is planned to be established in Q3 2022. Operationally, we took a few important steps in the Q4 with our new logistics center in Bor, Czech Republic, which became fully operational.

This means that we have shorter delivery times and lower fulfillment costs in continental Europe in 2022, while at the same time lowering costs for our continued expansion in Europe. Also, the work on merging our two fulfillment centers in Sweden is expected to be finalized in Q1 this year. Next page, please. Desenio is today the leading online provider of affordable art. We have successfully established ourselves in 35 countries, which shows that our data-driven strategy and unique product offering sets us apart from competition. This expansion has been done while at the same time growing our profits and generating great cash flows. Furthermore, our ability to deliver comparably strong profit and cash flow also in Q4, despite the weak market conditions, creates a good foundation for continued expansion and investments to further leverage our scalable business model.

The key to the success has also been the focus on not only growing our customer base, but also making sure that our customer satisfaction is best in class. We are in a great position to capture growth opportunities that started in Nordics, they're off to Europe, and now also in North America. Next page, please. Page four. Let me now turn more in detail to Q4 performance. Let's say it's decreased 5.6% and 30.2% organically for Desenio only. Gross margins were slightly down year-over-year at 82.4%, and it was the same gross margin now for Poster Store.

Adjusted EBITDA margin landed at 15.3%, which is below the same period last year, but better than Q3 2021, where the margin was 12.2%. Active customers decreased 64%. Looking at the full year 2021, we can conclude that net sales decreased 25.4% for the full year, but organic growth was negative. Gross margins were slightly lower, and the adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.4% compared to 26.7% in 2020. The big difference is mainly explained by the positive COVID effects on revenues in 2020 and the low activity in 2021. Next page, please, and I will now hand over to Kristian.

Kristian Lustin
CFO, Desenio Group

Thank you, Fredrik. On slide 5, we illustrate the development in graphs. I would like to comment especially on the net sales graph. As you see, net sales excluding Poster Store decreased 30%. This is partly due to lower search volumes, but also to a large extent an effect of our strategy to move traffic from Desenio to Poster Store by offering lower price points for the same products. We do this to create a stronger position in certain markets. Slide 6, please. We fully expanded our customer reach as active customers increased by 64% to 3.8 million. This is a sign of strength. However, the number of site visits decreased in line with markets, which was also reflected in the number of orders. But since we increased our conversion rates, our number of orders decreased less than our traffic. Turn to page 7, please.

Our cash flow from operating activities decreased compared to quarter four last year, but is still SEK 37.2 million, which shows how sustainable our asset light business model is even in challenging times. I now hand over to Fredrik on page 8, please.

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Thank you, Christian. Page 8, let us now look closer at available search data in Google Trends. Germany is our biggest market from a net revenue perspective and is of course important for future growth for Europe. This slide shows the index development of brand searches for Desenio, Poster Store for some of our peers and for the keyword poster, which is the most important search word for us in Germany. As you see, search activity improved in November and December, but stayed lower than the same levels in Q4 2020. Next page, please. Page nine. Then looking at index brand search volumes for us and affordable art specialist peers, well, we cannot see any signs of losing market shares in this market. Next slide, please.

In the U.K., Desenio and Poster Store brand search volumes were lower than in Q4 2020. Pretty much in line with the competitors, except for King & McGaw. Next page, please. Page eleven. In the U.K., we see no signs of losing market shares. On the contrary, Desenio has increased its market share since the beginning in June 2021. Next page, please. Page twelve. Our conversion rates have been stable during the last three years, which you can see in the top graph. Again, the search activity has gone down to the same levels as 2019, leading to the same number of sessions on our sites as in 2019. Next page, please. Page thirteen.

If you now look at gross order intake here, we see a positive pattern, and the gross order intake here is pro forma, I should mention. We see a positive pattern with clearly higher order intake during the H2 of 2021 compared to the same period in 2019. The level compared to 2020 is lower and in line with the revenue development. Next page, please. Page 14. Looking forward, we're well positioned to leverage on our dynamic growth model, including our investments in organization, proprietary technical platform, industrialized creative processes, and efficient customer acquisition approach. To take part of this journey, our new COO, Wei Wei Yu, started in January this year. Furthermore, we continue expanding our operations to new markets regardless of short-term volatility in market activity.

An important part of this strategy is our expansion in North America with a local team under the leadership of Michał Cylwik, and that this is of course in addition to growth initiatives in Europe. With that, I would like to conclude my presentation here, and we would now be more than happy to take your questions. Over to you, operator.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we are now ready to take your questions. If you wish to ask a question, please press zero and one on your telephone keypad. The first question is from Johan Roslund, ABG. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Johan Roslund
Analyst, ABG

Thank you. Morning, Fredrik and Christian. Firstly, is there anything to add some color to your outlook statement here and your comments regarding double-digit growth in H2, possible to give some color on the range here between 10% and 99%?

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, we believe that and we can also see that when comparing to historical numbers that the levels we were at in revenue in H2 2021 was below normal level. In our estimations now for 2022, we believe that H2 will come back to more normal consumer behavior and consumer patterns. With that, I think it almost goes without saying that the growth should be double-digit. However, having been quite wrong in our estimation for looking at estimations for 2021, we're careful in you know, pronouncing the estimations for 2022 more detailed. I didn't really answer your question, did I?

Johan Roslund
Analyst, ABG

Fair enough.

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

I think.

Johan Roslund
Analyst, ABG

In general, double digits with a margin at least.

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Yeah, I do.

Johan Roslund
Analyst, ABG

Given the statement.

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Yes. With being careful with forward-looking estimations, if we believed it was 10, we would communicate double digits.

Johan Roslund
Analyst, ABG

Fair enough. Secondly on the gross margin here, you mentioned some different strategies between Poster Store and Desenio with a bit lower pricing in Poster Store. Are these the gross margins you would say are reasonable to assume going forward? Or are all the synergies now taken out from the Poster Store acquisition?

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

In terms of gross margin, yes. We can see now in Q4 that we have basically the same gross margin in Poster Store and Desenio. In theory, that shouldn't really be the case since as you mentioned, the strategy is to price Poster Store slightly lower. There was a negative effect here in Desenio where shipping prices from China actually brought the gross margin for Desenio down slightly. All in all, around this level of gross margin you can expect going forward.

Johan Roslund
Analyst, ABG

Thank you. Lastly, if it's possible to give some color on current trading and sort of the sales growth delta here during the quarter, seems like October was the weakest month in terms of not only absolute terms, which is the seasonal aspect, but also in relative terms? Is it possible to say something about the delta during the quarter in relative terms? Is it correct to say that the January Google Trends numbers are sort of holding up quite well as well? Is that a fair statement?

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

The short answer is, yes. You, you're right that in Q4, October was weaker than normal, much weaker than normal. The development was stronger in November, December, and that development has held up going into Q1 so far.

Johan Roslund
Analyst, ABG

Do you believe that this is an effect of the Omicron outbreak, or do you think that this is more, you know, a more normalized consumer behavior?

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

That's a very good question. This is an area I think where we have gone wrong a couple of times, trying to estimate in 2021. What we've learned so far during the pandemic is that the longer time has gone in the pandemic, so the more restrictions or lockdowns and lockups and so on, for every lockdown and lockup, the effect on our revenue has been smaller. It was stronger in the first set of lockdowns, and now we can't really see any immediate reactions in the customer behavior to restrictions. With that, I

What I'm trying to say is that we don't believe we've had a strong positive effect lately from COVID, but in theory, there should be a slight positive impact.

Johan Roslund
Analyst, ABG

Yeah, that's fair. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Carl Bergenberg, Carnegie. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Carl Bergenberg
Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you very much, and good morning, Fredrik and Kristian. My first question is on the topic of Johan's question there earlier. I'm curious. If you could share anything on these monthly comparisons you are facing here going into Q1. I know that you reported 60% organic growth in Q1 2021, but how did that develop in Q1 2021 on a monthly basis? Is the toughest comparison now in January, or was that fairly consistent through the quarter?

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Yes. I would say it was fairly consistent throughout the quarter last year. If anything, it was stronger in the H1.

Carl Bergenberg
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. Very well. Thank you. My second question is on Poster Store. I mean, you're reporting almost EUR 102 million in contribution in sales in full Q4. I'm just curious, could you possibly share the organic growth or organic decline in Poster Store here in Q4, just to understand the performance relative to core Desenio.

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Yeah. We have chosen not to disclose the quarterly numbers for Poster Store before the acquisition. That's just due to the fact that we have correct numbers for the full year, but for the quarters we're not sure they actually are correct. Therefore, we're not communicating that. Of course, we know approximately at least what the quarterly numbers were for Poster prior to the acquisition. As you think, I guess, is that the Poster Store has been growing at a much higher rate than Desenio, and that is correct.

Carl Bergenberg
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. Is it close to flat year-on-year or are we still talking double-digit negative organic growth in Poster Store in Q4 also?

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Yeah. We're talking double-digit negative growth also for Poster Store in Q4.

Carl Bergenberg
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. Thank you very much. I have another question on competitors in Europe. You had the slide from Google Trends displaying quite well. But have you seen any sort of unusual behavior among your competitors here also in Q4? I mean, given that the market is still depressed, how are players like Juniqe and Posterlounge acting in this environment? Are they more aggressive on marketing given lower volumes? Or what are your feelings of how your competitors are playing the situation out?

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

I mean, we haven't seen any abnormal trends. We've seen some signs that Juniqe has been a bit more aggressive from mid to end of Q4, I would say. It's just slight signs of that. I think the reason why is because as you may know, they were recently acquired by another German company. I guess during that process it was important for them to hold up sales numbers.

Carl Bergenberg
Analyst, Carnegie

Fair enough. Very well. Then I have my final question on fulfillment volumes here in Q4 and through your new fulfillment center in Europe. Do you ship all your Poster Store non-Nordic orders through the Czech Republic fulfillment center today? Maybe if you could share a bit the development here in Q4. I know you've been saying that the merger is complete in Q1, but just curious of understanding the state here in Q4 in Poster Store relative Desenio.

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

We are currently shipping almost all volumes for Poster Store outside all of the Nordics from Czech. I think the development has been very good. If we look at the development in terms of fulfillment cost per order from the warehouse, it has come down during the three months it's been operational. We expect it to be even further down when we're up and running with all the volumes. We're very happy with that warehouse start. If you think about the total fulfillment cost for Poster Store, that is not reflected yet in that due to the fact that we've had double warehouses for Poster Store during Q4.

Now in Q1, we're closing down the Swedish Poster Store warehouse and moving the Nordic volumes into the Desenio warehouse in Sweden.

Carl Bergenberg
Analyst, Carnegie

All right. Yeah, exactly. Okay. I think that was all of my questions. Thank you very much.

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I hand back to you.

Fredrik Palm
CEO, Desenio Group

All right. Thank you very much, operator, and thank you everyone for your time and questions today. We'll be hosting virtual digital roadshows over the coming days, and we look forward to speaking with as many of you as possible during this time. Please don't hesitate to reach out to us with any questions or requests that you may have. Speak soon and stay safe.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.

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