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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Apr 28, 2023

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Good morning. My name is Jonas Samuelson. A warm welcome to Electrolux Q1 2023 results presentation. With me today, as usual, I have our CFO, Therese Friberg, our Head of Investor Relations, Sophie Arnius. We also have with us today Anna Ohlsson-Leijon, our Chief Commercial Officer, who many of you have met both in this role and previously as the CFO of Electrolux. Welcome, Anna. She will be with us in these calls going forward. Before we start, I'd like to mention that this session is recorded and will be available on our website as an on-demand version. Let's look at our performance in the Q1 of 2023. We had organic sales growth in the quarter, partly as a consequence of strong price carryover, despite continued soft demand driven by inflation and higher interest rates in key markets.

In North America and Latin America, we increased volumes and gained market shares, supported by new competitive product ranges and improved product availability. For the whole group, volumes, however, declined. We also benefited from solid aftermarket sales growth, taking us one step closer to our target of 10% of total group sales in 2025. EBIT improved sequentially, although still declining compared to last year as a consequence of lower volumes and remaining high cost levels in products sold from inventory. Although the business area in North America still reported a loss, earnings improved significantly compared to last quarter, showing that our turnaround activities are gaining traction. Our number one priority this year, the implementation of the group-wide cost reduction and North America turnaround program, is progressing according to plan, contributing positively to earnings in the quarter.

This was also one of our focus areas in our Capital Markets Update in March, which I encourage you to check out if you have not yet had the opportunity. As mentioned, price remained solid and largely offset the negative impact from products sold this quarter that were produced and transported at last year's higher cost levels, as well as additional headwinds from external factors. Product mix was flat as the negative market pressure, combined with the strong mixed execution last year, offset the favorable impact of new product offerings. EBIT included a non-recurring item of SEK 561 million related to the closure of the Nyíregyháza factory in Hungary expected in 2024. Therese will now walk us through the main drivers behind the change in operating income compared to last year.

Therese Friberg
CFO, Electrolux Group

Yes. We had a strong organic contribution to earnings in the quarter, driven by a solid price development based on price realization, mainly from increases during last year, while promotional activity was back on normal levels. Mix was flat in the quarter, while volumes were down as a result of the large demand drop in our main markets. Our investments in consumer experience, innovation, and marketing decreased as a result of implementation of the cost reduction program. We start to seeing effect of the cost reduction program also through a positive cost efficiency, despite the negative impact from the products sold in this quarter were produced and transported at last year's higher cost levels. Jonas will come back to progress of the different components of the program in a couple of slides.

Price was almost offsetting the negative external factors, which was also exacerbated by high cost inventory from last year consumed in this quarter. External factors here, beside the negative raw material and currency, also includes headwinds related to labor inflation and energy cost increases. Now let's take a deeper look at our price and mix development. The EBIT margin accretion for the group from price and mix was 6.1 percentage points. This was mainly a result of strong price year-over-year, while mix was essentially flat in the quarter, as we do see some pressure on mix from polarization when consumers are mixing down from low-end segments to even lower price points.

If we look at the business areas, in Europe, we had a strong price performance on the back of increases done during 2022 and some additional increases implemented in the beginning of the year to offset the inflation. The focus on our premium brands, AEG and Electrolux, is delivering positive mix also this quarter. In North America, the promotional activity is back to normal levels. Hence, this is offsetting the positive effects from the price increases made during last year. Mix was negative comparing to a very strong Q1 last year. In Latin America, the price development was positive, mainly related to price increases done during 2022 and continuous increases in Argentina. In Brazil, we see that the promotional activity is back on a normal level. Mix is positive based on successful product launches and growth in aftermarket.

In Asia-Pacific and Middle East and Africa, we had a positive price year-over-year related to increases during 2022 and additional increases, mainly in Egypt, to offset the inflationary pressure. Mix was slightly negative due to consumers mixing down. As we previously communicated, the group-wide cost reduction program and North America turnaround program is expected to have a year-over-year earnings contribution of 4 billion-5 billion SEK in 2023 from cost efficiency and innovation marketing combined. Jonas will give an update on the progress.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Thank you, Therese. We have already presented our group-wide cost reduction program extensively. I will mainly provide some highlights on the progress. Overall, we're fully aligned to our plan to achieve SEK 4 billion to SEK 5 billion of net savings to the P&L in 2023 and achieving a savings run rate of SEK 7 billion in 2024. Some of the initiatives, such as reducing premium freight and spot buys and reducing sourcing and logistics costs, are almost fully executed, with the P&L benefits occurring once older inventory produced at higher cost is consumed. We also have very good progress on stabilizing manufacturing output and improving productivity mainly in North America, leading to reduced headcounts with blue-collar reductions of 58% of the targeted reduction achieved in the quarter.

In the north, in other areas, we are progressing to plan with 70% of the white collar reductions achieved. Switching topics, sustainability is at the core of our strategy and a key element for our innovation. This is as sustainability is becoming increasingly a premium qualifier for our consumers. Through strong, consistent work, we have already in 2022, as one of the first companies globally, achieved ambitious 2025 science-based targets. This is not just the right thing to do, but it also drives profitability as our most sustainable products are also our most profitable. With the 24% of sales representing our most sustainable products, contributing 39% of our gross profit in 2022. We know from research that 93% of consumers want to live more sustainably.

Now we can provide consumers with a strong return on investment on their sustainable choices through lower energy bills. We're now in the process of setting new and challenging science-based climate targets for 2030. Let's have a look at our cash flow and liquidity please.

Anna Ohlsson-Leijon
CCO, Electrolux Group

Cash flow after investment was negative SEK 5.1 billion in the quarter, which is very similar to last year, as we normally have a seasonal outflow in the Q1 . As you remember, we significantly reduced the inventory levels in the Q4 , and this quarter has been very focused on stabilizing the inventory level, while continue to optimize raw material and component stock. This has resulted in a significant reduction in payables in the quarter, which is driving the negative cash flow. As we said in the Capital Markets Update in March, our aim is to have a positive cash flow after investments for the full year in 2023. Looking at our liquidity and maturity profile.

From a balance sheet perspective, we have solid liquidity with SEK 28.7 billion in liquidity, including revolving credit facilities as of the end of March. We have no financial covenants, we have a well-balanced maturity profile, and the SEK 2 billion loan maturing in 2023 was repaid now in April. The target is to maintain a solid investment grade rating by delivering on the cost reduction program and generating a positive cash flow after investment in 2023. Anna Ohlsson-Leijon, our Chief Commercial Officer, will now go into the business area's performance in Q1, starting with Europe. Consumer demand was weakening in the quarter, and business area Europe had an organic decline of close to 5%, driven by substantial decline in volumes. However, price carryover from pricing activities last year did offset some of that volume loss.

The business area has a continued focus on driving sales related to the premium brands Electrolux and AEG, and a more premium product offer. This resulted in a positive contribution also this quarter. In the markets, we're experiencing a polarization, with some consumers mixing down. Yes, there are consumers in Europe striving for more premium and innovative products. Earnings excluding NRI for the quarter was SEK 520 million, which is a decline versus last year of close to 14%. The organic decline was partly offset by contribution from the group-wide cost reduction program. Most of the headwinds from external factors impacted the business area, including energy, labor inflation, and certain raw materials. EBIT margin, excluding NRI, came in at 4.6% versus 5.2% last year. The decline of 0.6 percentage points.

Let's look at the European market. The market demand in Europe continued to decline throughout the Q1 and was down 10% excluding Russia. Western Europe declined by 9%, and demand in Eastern Europe by 18%. The market demand continued to also be at lower levels than before the pandemic, declining by 7% compared to the Q1 of 2019. The consumer confidence remains low, with consumer demand being negatively impacted by the geopolitical tensions and the high general inflation in combination with increased interest rates and increased rates really starting to bite. We assess the inventory levels at retailers as being at normal levels, but still being carefully managed from a working capital perspective, including order placement given the weak market. Let's continue with our business area, North America.

The business area gained market shares in the quarter on the back of increased volumes from the strong product offers in cooking, refrigeration, and dish. Price was flat, with a positive impact of last year's list price increases offset by higher promotional levels. The organic performance resulted in a growth of 4% in the quarter. The turnaround program that was initiated in the fall of last year contributed positive returns in the quarter, with traction in stabilizing manufacturing output and improving productivity in combination with structural cost savings. Sales of products produced at last year's elevated cost levels continue to impact earnings negatively. Product mix was unfavorable in the quarter as last year's contribution was strong.

The earnings for the quarter, excluding NRI, came in at a loss of SEK -439 million, with a margin of -3.8% versus SEK +96 million last year. The turnaround program is also making progress in achieving stability across business processes and operational planning and execution. To conclude, as Jonas just mentioned, the turnaround program is progressing according to plan and is of highest priority. Looking at the U.S. market, the industry shipments of core appliances in the U.S. decreased by 5%, increased compared to the Q1 of 2019 by 18%. High general inflation and increased interest rates impacted consumer sentiment negatively, the reduced purchasing power started to show in consumers shifting to lower price points. Retailer inventories are assessed to be fairly normalized.

Market demand for all major appliances, including microwave ovens and home comfort products, decreased by 10% year-over-year. Let's move on to Latin America. Latin America had a strong organic growth of 20% in the quarter. The volume grew significantly with market share gains in Brazil and Argentina. Price and sales mix was also contributing positively to the organic growth in the quarter. From a market perspective, we saw decreased demand in Brazil and Chile. In Argentina, however, consumer demand was strong on the back of the hyperinflation environment. The strong organic contribution was also positively impacted by strong aftermarket sales, and the business area had a negative impact from carryover of last year's high cost levels, as well as additional headwinds from external factors. This effect was partly offset by contribution from the group-wide cost reduction program.

The earnings in the quarter came in at SEK 236 million and a margin of 3.8% versus last year of SEK 85 million. Turning to Asia Pacific, Middle East, and Africa. The business area had an organic sales decline of 5.5% on the back of decreased consumer demand resulting in lower volumes. Specifically in Australia, consumer confidence dropped with the market slowdown as a result. Mix was unfavorable as consumers mixed down within product categories. The business area had a positive price contribution, largely offsetting the negative impact from carryover of last year's high cost levels and increased currency headwinds.

The earnings was positively impacted by contribution from the group wide cost reduction program, and the EBIT for the quarter came in at SEK 124 million, with a margin of 3.3% versus last year's of SEK 284 million. Now I'll hand over to Jonas for the market outlook.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Thank you very much, Anna and Therese. We expect consumer sentiment in 2023 to be negatively impacted by high inflation and interest rate environment, although with regional differences. In Europe, although energy inflation has not been as high as feared, overall inflation is running above prior assumptions. In the Asia Pacific region, we see consumers, in general, less pressured by inflation and interest rates, although consumer sentiment in Australia has weakened considerably recently. The housing market, a key driver for appliance demand in mature markets like Europe and North America, is expected to decline in 2023. On the back of this, we maintain our market outlook and expect demand for appliances in 2023 full year to be negative for Europe, for North America and Latin America, and neutral for the Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa region compared to 2022.

Although the outlook is uncertain, it's probable that reduced inflationary pressures will lead to demand stabilization in Europe and North America in the second half of 2023. Let's look at the business outlook. The business outlook for full year 2023 provided in the Q4 2022 interim report remains unchanged. On the back of the market outlook, we estimate our volumes in 2023 to decline year-over-year, partly mitigated by mix improvements from our strong offering. 2023 will be another launch intensive year, although less so than in 2022. I'm very pleased with how well received the new products have been in the last couple of years, even in this challenging demand environment with reduced consumer purchasing power. This gives us confidence that we have a great platform to drive mix improvements from.

Looking at price, we anticipate differences in the price dynamic for our business areas, given the regional variations in cost inflation and demand outlook. Since most of the expected cost inflation will impact Europe and Latin America, we will in these regions structure our price execution in terms of list prices and promotional activities to reflect this with the aim to offset cost inflation. In North America, on the other hand, reduced commodity and transportation market prices combined with lower consumer demand are predicted to result in continued high promotional activity following the increases in Q4 of 2022. This was also the case in Q1.

As a consequence, on a group level, we do not expect to fully offset the negative impact from external factors in 2023 full year with price. As mentioned, we expect external factors to be negative for the year, driven by energy and labor inflation, as well as currency headwind. Far in 2023, the currency headwinds have accelerated. Although we foresee benefits from lower raw material costs, the positive impact on earnings is reduced as a higher share than normal of raw materials procured at last year's rate will be consumed in 2023. This is as a consequence of higher inventory levels of supplies and reduced production rates in Q4 2022. The outlook for external factors in the second half of 2023 is difficult to predict as energy and plastic prices are volatile and a portion of steel prices are on price mechanisms.

The expected positive year-over-year earnings contribution of SEK 4 billion-5 billion from cost efficiency and reduced investments in innovation and marketing combined, related to the group-wide cost reduction program and North America turnaround is reconfirmed. Total cost reduction from the program is estimated to be in excess of SEK 7 billion in 2024 compared to 2022. Investments to strengthen our competitiveness through innovation, automation, modernization continue in 2023, total capital expenditures are estimated to be in the range of SEK 6 billion to SEK 7 billion.

Therese Friberg
CFO, Electrolux Group

If we look at the phasing of the impact of these items during the year, it is primarily 3 items I wish to highlight. Starting with price. The carryover from list price increases implemented a year ago will taper off and has mainly benefited the first month of 2023 for the group as a whole. Last year, promotional activities returned to normal levels in the second half from being at low levels in the first half of the year, mostly impacting North and Latin America, as these are the two more promotional intense regions. External factors are just as Jonas mentioned, commented on, impacted by a higher share than normal of raw material produced at last year's rates, but will be consumed in 2023. This lag has predominantly impacted Q1 negatively, but will also impact Q2 to some extent.

Finally, a few words of the timing of the impact of the group-wide cost reduction and North America turnaround program. The activities implemented under the program will gradually contribute to earnings over the course of 2023. An important element of the program is reducing costs for logistics and sourcing of components, especially in North America. Just like with raw material, the higher inventory level of components results in a lag before the measures we are taking will have an earnings impact. In terms of logistics, contract negotiations take place in the first part of the year, and the new rates are implemented during the Q2 .

Relevant for the phasing of this earnings contribution from a year-over-year perspective is that the baseline where cost efficiency and innovation and marketing combined last year was less negative in the first half of the year compared to the second half of the year.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

To sum up the quarter and the strategic drivers that we've delivered on, the implementation of the cost, group-wide cost reduction and North America turnaround program is progressing according to plan. The underlying EBIT improved sequentially, driven mainly by business area in North America. This is our most important priority this year. Our new product ranges continue to be very well received by consumers, and I'm very pleased that we, this quarter, gained market shares both in North America and in Latin America. For the group overall, we managed to keep mix in line with a strong quarter last year, despite the current market pressures with reduced consumer purchasing power.

The aftermarket business is an important part of our profitable growth strategy that this quarter in increased sales well above our finished goods, aligned with our aim to reach approximately 10% of total group sales by 2025. With that, I leave the word to Sophie.

Therese Friberg
CFO, Electrolux Group

Thank you. We have now come to the Q&A session. We will open up for questions. You know the drill, one question per person. We allow as many of you to be able to ask questions. Of course, if time allows, you are more than welcome to go back into the Q&A queue again. With that, I leave the word to our operator. Please go ahead.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we now begin the question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone. We are now taking the first question. Please stand by. The first question from Andrew Coombs from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Andre Kukhnin
Director of European Capital Goods Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Hi, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. Thank you for the details on the phasing of H1, H2, across the key drivers of performance. I just wanted to check a bit further on that on the external factors, on H1, H2, given that kind of timing effect from purchasing agreements and high inventory. Do you think there's a chance that those external factors are not a negative in the second half of the year?

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

We don't give exact guidance on that. Let's look at the different elements here, right? Raw material like steel and plastics, we see a good chance of that turning positive in the second half of the year. However, the year-over-year impact of inflationary pressures, of currency, and also of energy, despite the energy pressure being a little bit less than we originally feared. It's still significantly negative year-over-year, also in the second half. Those pressures are significant also for the second half. I think the focus shouldn't be too much on just the steel.

Andre Kukhnin
Director of European Capital Goods Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Got it. Thank you. If I may, just a very quick follow-up on, something you said on the turnaround program in the U.S. The 58% reduction that you achieved in Q1, that's 58% of the total planned reduction for the year?

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah.

Andre Kukhnin
Director of European Capital Goods Equity Research, Credit Suisse

you have achieved in Q1.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yes. Yes, yes.

Andre Kukhnin
Director of European Capital Goods Equity Research, Credit Suisse

I guess the rest in Q2?

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Pretty much. There's one element that takes a little bit longer, and that is the consolidation of our production in Springfield, which will only happen towards the end of the year, where we will phase out the old factory and phase in the new one. Beyond that, it's mainly Q2.

Andre Kukhnin
Director of European Capital Goods Equity Research, Credit Suisse

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

You're welcome. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the next question. Please stand by. The next question from James Moore for Redburn. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

James Moore
Co-Head of European Capital Goods, Redburn

Yes. Morning, everyone.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Morning.

James Moore
Co-Head of European Capital Goods, Redburn

I'm hoping well. I wondered if I could follow up from Andre on the very complex moving parts behind profitability for the year and margins as we move across the year. I mean, I guess the overarching question is, when you boil it all down, do you think margins will demonstrate the normal seasonality as the year progresses? If you can't say that, I wondered if you could talk about what the margin impact was in the quarter from the carryover of last year's costs in the Q1 , and what the savings run rate is in the Q1 versus what you expect for the full year. Also on mix, I mentioned it would be less this year than last year. Could you remind us what it was last year?

I think you said at the Capital Markets Day SEK 6 billion over three years, just trying to understand the phase.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Well done in putting that into one question first of all. We'll see if I can untangle it. I mean, clearly, there is a normal seasonal pattern to revenue and cash flow. The challenge, of course, is the year-over-year, to your point, where last year was a little bit of a tale of two cities where, you know, the Q1 of 2022 was still very much sort of driven by the, call it the post-pandemic logic, right? With relatively low cost and high demand and low promotional activity.

You know, even though the underlying realities had already changed, that was kind of the flow-through of inventory and all those things in Q1 of last year. You know, in Q2, we kind of started to get into this new paradigm with sharply lower demand, and increasing costs while we were able to offset a lot of that through aggressive pricing. We have profit and mix to your point as well. As we go into this year, in Q1, we still very much have the same sort of paradigm.

You know, high cost headwinds from still, you know, purchasing contracts at last year's levels, high inventories, and also the carryover impact of good price, of high price. Of course, year-over-year has been a quite negative demand environment that provides sort of the net reduction in earnings, if you will, year-over-year, as we mentioned, right? As we go through the rest of the year, the year-over-year dynamic changes quite significantly, where we'll still see lower demand year-over-year in Q2, right? Which is a clear drag. As we go into the second half of the year, that sort of demand element, unless something further changes, shouldn't be as big of a negative.

At the same time, we start to cycle down the raw material cost drivers, if you will, with lower raw material costs starting to impact gradually in Q2 and beyond. Q1, we really didn't see any of that because we were still at the old prices. That then turns more favorable. On the other hand, mirroring that, we also see year-over-year substantially higher promotional pressure, you know, which is normal. We always talk about that the market tends to adjust to changes in input cost over time. Higher promotional pressure, lower pressure from raw material cost. Again, we still have these other inflationary items, both salary inflation, energy cost year-over-year still substantially higher, and quite unfavorable currency, right?

I understand that it's tricky to analyze these different elements, but if you basically say, yeah, there is a fairly normal sort of underlying seasonal pattern, and then you have to understand how these different year-over-year effects play out. And it's difficult for me to give more precise guidance than that. But hopefully that gives you a picture of how this will play out over the course of the year.

James Moore
Co-Head of European Capital Goods, Redburn

Thanks. I'll try and work through it.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the next question.

The next question from Björn Henriksson from Danske Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Björn Enarson
Director of Equity Research, Danske Bank

Yeah, thank you. I continue on, seasonal pattern. Looking at, cash flow in the quarter, looks like a normal Q1, but we also had, coming from a very challenging 2022. If you can, talk a little bit about how you expect the different components in cash flow, for the rest of the year. Thank you.

Sophie Arnius
Head of Investor Relations, Electrolux Group

Yes. I think it's mainly then around working capital. As you know, during last year, we wanted to bring down inventory, I would say, from the Q2 , and we then had a very high focus on doing that during the second half, and then had a large reduction in the Q4 . As we mentioned then, we were still not completely satisfied with, let's say, our quality of the inventory. We had quite a good balance when it comes to our produced goods, but we still had the high component stock. As we said, it's also the main reason for the delay effect of getting to the cost efficiency.

What we then said is that we will take some time now to recalibrate the inventory in a proper manner, so to say, to rebalance the taking down the component and raw material stock, and thereby then getting through the cost efficiency to the bottom line. This is what we are doing, and we are still pleased in the cash flow way that inventory is kept on a total almost flat level compared to the ending point in Q4. Of course, we should remember that this is still done in quite sharply negative markets. So it still means that we are holding back on our purchases really to as well cope with the declining market.

What we saw here in the quarter was very much, I would say that activity with us still holding back significantly on purchases and therefore payables has been a very high outflow in the quarter. Of course, with the inventory now becoming more and more rebalanced, that trend will also turn. Relative or within short, I would say we will also start building our payables. There is nothing underlying in changing payment terms or anything like this. I would say it's quite a normal seasonal pattern, of course, with some different dynamics.

Yeah, as I said earlier on as well, we aim at having a positive cash flow after investment for 2023, and this will come gradually during the year.

Björn Enarson
Director of Equity Research, Danske Bank

Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the next question. The next question from Gustav Sandström from SEB. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Gustav Sandström
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Thank you, guys. This is Gustav Sandström with SEB. If I can turn to sort of the pricing environment in the American and North American market, you say that the inventories are rather balanced there in retail, which I assume will help your pricing position. Then again, we also see some input costs coming down year-over-year. Can you let us in a little bit on the discussion with the retail in terms of pricing? Do you see further campaign pressure into Q2, or has that eased sequentially? That'd be helpful.

Anna Ohlsson-Leijon
CCO, Electrolux Group

This is Anna here. Maybe I can comment on that a bit. We did see, of course, here promotional activities normalizing in Q4 and from having been at lower levels prior to that. That is something that we will continue to experience a year-over-year, you know, higher promotional activity, relatively speaking, but still on a normalized kind of level versus, I mean, if you think about it, pre the pan-pandemic. We increased prices in the beginning of last year in North America. Of course, the year-over-year effect will now of course, be tapering off here also as Therese mentioned earlier. That's the current situation.

Gustav Sandström
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Okay.

We don't expect a sequentially big difference in a change in promotional activity, right? Yeah.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Right. a year-over-year impact-

Gustav Sandström
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Yeah.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

price sort of season. Yep. Yep.

Gustav Sandström
Equity Research Analyst, SEB

Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the next question. Please stand by. The next question from David MacGregor for Longbow Research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

David MacGregor
CEO and Director of Research Senior Analyst, Longbow Research

Yes, good morning, everyone.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Morning.

David MacGregor
CEO and Director of Research Senior Analyst, Longbow Research

Jonas, congratulations on the progress in North America.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Thank you.

Sophie Arnius
Head of Investor Relations, Electrolux Group

For us as well.

David MacGregor
CEO and Director of Research Senior Analyst, Longbow Research

I'm sure. I guess I wanted to ask about the some of the higher cost inventories that have been transitioning the some of the 2022 costs that were impacting 2023 cost of goods sold. What was the impact of the higher cost inventories on the Q1 margins, if you could quantify that? You mentioned the higher cost inventories transition out in 2Q. What's the expected Q2 sequential benefit?

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

We don't of course give, you know, exact guidance of that. If you look at the external factors in Q1, overall, you know, a significant part of that was carryover effect. Also the fairly, you say, limited impact on bottom line from cost reduction activities was significantly sort of absorbed by the fact that we're selling inventory produced last year. Net-net, you know, not much at all of the cost reduction activities or the lower sort of raw material environment had a positive impact in Q1. On the flip side, we saw a very significant positive price impact, right?

That's the, for the group as a whole. In, you know, specifically in North America, it was, you know, even, how we say, even more of a negative, year-over-year effect of raw materials because there we had very attractive prices in Q1 last year and still having those sort of fairly unfavorable, price environment impact in Q1 2023. The year-over-year effect in North America of these factors was quite significant. But on the other hand, pricing had, you know, we had favorable list price effects, but the higher promotional environment still continued into Q1. That's the, that's sort of the Q1 effect.

If you project that forward to Q2, we will start to see significant benefits of the cost reduction activities and also starting to see the lower raw material cost, even though that's sort of phasing in over the quarter. On the other hand, we see a full sort of wash through of the higher promotional activities in Q2 because we don't really have much year-over-year favorability from pricing anymore, as Anna mentioned. That's to some extent washing out and the sort of the real sequential improvement should come from the from the impact of the cost reduction initiatives that we're driving. That's sort of the biggest sequential impact from Q1 to Q2 if you net everything out.

David MacGregor
CEO and Director of Research Senior Analyst, Longbow Research

Great.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

It's.

David MacGregor
CEO and Director of Research Senior Analyst, Longbow Research

If I may.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah, go ahead.

David MacGregor
CEO and Director of Research Senior Analyst, Longbow Research

Sorry. I was maybe just to ask the question maybe differently then. How much of the SEK 4 billion-SEK 5 billion of expected 2023 cost savings do you think are already in place as of today? You've achieved the headcount reductions.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah. That's what we tried to provide some light on, let's say, in the first slides here. Again, on the logistics side, which was a significant headwind with all the inefficiencies we had last year, you know, that is all done, right? The P&L impact in Q1 was limited. Q2 is coming, much more significant. Also, as mentioned in North America, the manufacturing stability is now by and large achieved, which is again, last year we had a lot of disruptions, as you will recall, from both from supplies and from our own production.

That's basically behind us as well, which means that we've been able to take out a lot of production shifts that were very inefficient last year, because we are now able to just produce in a smooth manner. That's where a lot of those, the 58% of the total headcount reduction target received in Q1 is coming from that stability effect. Both of those factors will favorably impact Q2 in 2023. That's the main sort of net benefit going sequentially. Most of the other things are washing out between cost and net price.

David MacGregor
CEO and Director of Research Senior Analyst, Longbow Research

Got it. Thanks for that, Jonas.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the next question. The next question from Martin Wilkie from Citi. Please go ahead.

Martin Wilkie
Managing Director of European Capital Goods, Citi

Yeah, thank you. Good morning. It's Martin from Citi. I have a question on market share, and it might sort of be part of the mixed question as well. It looks like you had some good benefit from new product launches in the quarter. You've also talked about some market share gains. I think during the course of the supply chain shortages, there were some market share losses from some players, including yourselves, simply because you couldn't necessarily place the product that you wanted because of shortages. Presumably the reversal of that as supply chain ease, but knowing that you have your own product launches as well. I was wonder if you could just talk through those two dynamics and to what extent they both added up to some share gains.

Relative to where we were pre the shortages, I understand it's very different from country to product and so forth, but is your share generally back to where it was before we had all these product shortages? Thank you.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah. If you look at the biggest sort of year-over-year release of availability happening in North America, because there, as you recall, we had just a very challenging period last year. And the fact that we're now have sort of pretty much full availability gave us the opportunity to recover, let's say most of the, a big chunk of the market share lost during the challenging period. There are some categories here and there that we have, if you will, let go of a bit on the air con side and so on. We've talked about that previously.

There is a structural reduction of sales there of some unprofitable categories, but beyond that, we're recovering a lot. Same with Latin America, very strong recovery of previously lost market share. Europe is a little bit different because there, as you recall, we are in this sort of continuous process of mixing away from our low-end tactical brands into our more premium brands. We tend to look a little bit less at volume share there and more at sort of the quality of the value share. There we're, as mentioned by Anna, we're delivering positive mix and strong price in the quarter.

It's less about the volume, it's more about the quality of revenue there, which has improved significantly now that we have more availability and more to come there. We also, as Therese mentioned, have worked on rebalancing our inventory to be more aligned with market demand in Europe, with, as you know, obviously a fairly complex environment with many different markets there. Overall, very pleased with the recovery in North America, Latin America. Europe's slightly different focus. Then, APAC, we are, I would say, by and large, holding market share, but in a challenging market in our important Australian market in particular.

The market there is challenging, which kind of overall region perspective is a negative mix and volume driver for us as we are more dependent on Australia than other bigger Asian markets in general.

Martin Wilkie
Managing Director of European Capital Goods, Citi

Thank you. Just to drill into that European piece, I mean, obviously you've got a lot of new product lineups, as you say, tilting more towards AEG and some of these premium brands. If you look for a sort of percentage on how far along that journey you are, I mean, I know there's still more to come, but are you sort of halfway through that product refresh, or how should we think about where you are in that season?

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah, no, it's frankly a continuous journey for the last 10 years, effectively. We come from a, you know, a starting point where we were kind of, sort of half-half, sort of middle of the market position with half of our volume coming from the more sort of mass price points and half from the more mass premium half point price points. Now I would say that that exposure to the mass market is probably down by, yeah, 60%, 70% compared to where it was, what it was, 10 years ago. In the meantime, we've also gained substantial share in the, in the premium end, certainly value share. We're, I would say, a good part of the way through that.

That doesn't mean the mix journey per se is over. Because there's two different elements. One is to say, let's sell less of our mass market private label tactical brand product and more of our premium. That's one sort of mix element. The other mix element is let's innovate and bring more innovative, high featured, attractive products in the premium brands. There we have much more runway to go, and that's where these new investments are playing in. The first piece, we've done most of it, the second piece, we have a long runway to go. Anna, would you add to that?

Anna Ohlsson-Leijon
CCO, Electrolux Group

No, I think it's very clear. Of course, the mix journey will continue with new product launches and innovation coming in the market.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

As well as growth in the aftermarket business, which is a significant sort of... As we report it as part of mix.

Anna Ohlsson-Leijon
CCO, Electrolux Group

Yeah.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

In Europe in particular, we have a very good traction.

Anna Ohlsson-Leijon
CCO, Electrolux Group

Mm-hmm.

Martin Wilkie
Managing Director of European Capital Goods, Citi

Great. Thank you very much.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

You're welcome.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the next question. The next question from Akash Gupta from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Akash Gupta
Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Yes. Hi, good morning, everybody, and thanks for your time. My question is on utilization rate and operating leverage in manufacturing, and I'm wondering if you can comment on that. I mean, last year you had high production rate or utilization rate, which you tapered down in the second half when demand was coming down. Since then, we have seen slower, weaker volumes.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Mm-hmm.

Akash Gupta
Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Maybe if you can say where we are and when we look at into the bridge, the impact of operating leverage, any comment that you can provide us there, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah. I mean, clearly the operating leverage is impacted by the lower demand environment. That's very clear and that's, you know, all in line with what we saw and what we predicted when we initiated the cost reduction program in the fall of last year. You know, the work we're doing to take out shifts and to reduce our cost envelope is all driven by the fact that we have a lower demand environment. In combination with the fact that we need to take out all these inefficiencies that we had coming out of the pandemic. Yes, it... Operating leverage is negatively impacted, but we're compensating for that with the cost takeouts.

Akash Gupta
Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Thank you.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the next question.

The next question from Johan Eliasson from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Johan Eliasson
Head of Nordic Capital Goods Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yes, good morning, Jonas, Therese, Anna, and Sophie. This is Johan at Kepler Cheuvreux. I was just wondering about the market share gains you talk about in North America. Whirlpool sort of alluded to regaining one percentage points. Are you in the same ballpark? Then in Latin America, is the market share gains you mentioned there also just a reflection of better supply, or is your dual branding strategy you introduced in Brazil some time ago starting to yield some structural benefits there as well? Thank you.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah. We don't give exact market share data, but because it's just not very reliable, frankly. But I think, although I hate to speculate about other players, but I would say that the incumbents like us were quite heavily impacted by the supply shortages in, you know, in the post-pandemic period. And some of our Asian competitors less so, right?

As we now have full supply, and I assume most of our competitors do as well, it's sort of normal to see that a little bit adjust back, you know, and for us to regain market share both in North America, which is again heavily impacted Latin America, which was impacted, but less so, and in Europe for our premium brands as well. The very good news in both North America and Latin America is that we are seeing very good traction on our new and premium products that we're launching in both those regions. We talked about that extensively during our Capital Markets Update. You know, the new products that we're launching in North America are market leading in terms of consumer star ratings.

We have very, very good, you know, ammunition firepower to fight to retake those lost market shares, particularly in the more premium, mass premium end of the market. Specifically in Brazil and Latin America, as we're now launching new cooking and refrigeration products, we are, to your point, doing that with a dual brand approach. The Continental brand that we acquired a number of years ago, we now have, let's say better product coverage for in line and in combined with very solid new products under the Electrolux brand. I think we're well-positioned also in Latin America.

Again, you know, a lot of this was recovering, lost volumes that we had because of these temporary supply challenges that we experienced. So it's a little bit difficult to piece apart which part of this is purely timing and which part is driven by the very attractive products that we're launching. But certainly we feel good about both of those.

Johan Eliasson
Head of Nordic Capital Goods Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, good. Just to find out on the inventory, you said that Q4 that you were where you wanted to be on your finished goods. The problem was with the components. Are you still sort of quite okay on your own finished goods inventory levels and the issue is still on the component part in the inventories today?

Sophie Arnius
Head of Investor Relations, Electrolux Group

Yes. I think even what we talked about in the Q4 release was that we actually saw that we were going to rebuild some of the inventory here in, on the finished goods side in the Q1 to kind of work ourselves through the component reduction. That we have still managed not to do. Yeah, I can definitely confirm that we are where we would like to be on the, on the finished goods produced side.

Johan Eliasson
Head of Nordic Capital Goods Research, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the next question. Please stand by. The next question from Karri Rinta from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Karri Rinta
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods, Handelsbanken

Yes. Thank you. Good morning, Karri Rinta, Handelsbanken. I was curious about the sequential improvement in North American profitability, an improvement of SEK 800 million, while sales were down. I saw that you had some comment about this in the report, but can you give us some more color on the most important drivers behind this improvement, and how should we think about those drivers going forward?

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

No, I mean, clearly, I mean, Q3 and Q4 of last year was some of the worst performing quarters in North America that we've or that were the worst performing quarters that we've ever seen, as a consequence of this compounding impact of very, very high inefficiency, high cost, and you know, the sort of high promotional pressure. The baseline is, of course, extremely stressed. And a lot of what we're seeing here in Q1 is more, again, a normalization where, you know, promotional pressure is, yeah, normal, but not excessive. And we're starting to see just a, you know, a more, trouble, you know, disruption-free, production and supply.

You know, I think that's a, you know, that's very good. We're starting to see the benefits of reducing inefficient shift in our factories, very inefficient logistics and ocean freight. That's, that's all, you know, moving ahead as planned. You know, having said that, we're still not happy with the results in North America overall, and we have a lot of additional efficiency gains to materialize that are progressing well. Of course, we have these fantastic new products that are driving favorable mix and better, stronger market position. That is a step-by-step improvement gain.

Karri Rinta
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods, Handelsbanken

Great. Then very quickly on cash flow. In the last two years, you have had a positive operating cash flow after investment of roughly SEK 1 billion in the Q2 . Should we expect something similar this year as well?

Sophie Arnius
Head of Investor Relations, Electrolux Group

I think we don't give that type of guidance. I mean, as you can imagine, then we have SEK -5 billion here in the Q1 , and we are aiming at getting to a positive cash flow, cash flow after investments for the full year. Of course, yeah, gradually the cash needs to turn, let's say, in the coming quarters. It will.

Karri Rinta
Senior Analyst of Capital Goods, Handelsbanken

Perfect. Thank you.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you for your question. We are now taking the last question. The next question from Olof Cederholm from ABG. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Yes. Hello, everyone. It's Olof from ABG. Just returning very quickly to the price mix compare relative to external factors. You've said that, you know, lots of things, promotional activity worsening throughout the year, et cetera. You've been a little cautious there. The, you know, the gap between price mix and external factors was SEK 1 billion negative in Q1. I would assume that this gap will narrow, and it should narrow significantly. Is that a correct assessment?

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah. You know, first of all, we don't give, you know, detailed guidance on that. Let me just clarify one thing, and that is that the 1.2 billion of favorable organic contribution includes a significant negative component of volume, right? Price in itself was actually not far from fully compensating for the external factor. We, you know, as we mentioned, we had relatively flat mix, quite negative volume, and quite positive price, right? That equation that we said that, you know, price partially offset our external factors as a full year outlook.

You know, Q1 was in that, you know, ballpark, and the rest of the year, you know, will be in a similar sort of, similar relationship, where, again, Europe, APAC, and Latin America more or less fully offsetting, and North America, not doing that because of the higher, promotional activity. That's sort of.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Fair enough.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

That's sort of the picture both for Q1 and for the rest of the year.

Sophie Arnius
Head of Investor Relations, Electrolux Group

As mentioned, earlier in the presentation, the price mix, on the bottom line was 6.1%, and the external factors was negative 7.1.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Yeah. Excellent. That's It's a good explanation. If I then may, with one minute left or 20 seconds left, ask about the volume facing throughout the year. We heard some of your competitors talking about stabilizing demand in the second half of the year. That was maybe more about North America, what's your view there? It seems like the decline has troughed and it's getting slightly the comps are getting easier, et cetera.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Mm-hmm.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

What do you say on volumes from here?

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Yeah. Q2 still has quite a bit of year-over-year pressure, whereas the second half of the year is more balanced in most markets.

Olof Cederholm
Co-Head of Equities, ABG Sundal Collier

Excellent. Thank you so much.

Jonas Samuelson
President and CEO, Electrolux Group

Thank you. To summarize, we have in this challenging market environment with high levels of volatility and uncertainty, delivered on our priorities in the quarter that we set forth. We continue to progress in line with our solid long-term strategy for profitable growth. With that, I thank you all for a good session and look forward to seeing you soon again.

Operator

That concludes the conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

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