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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Oct 26, 2023

Operator

Welcome to the Evolution Q3 2023 report. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answer session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing star five on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to the speakers, CEO Martin Carlesund and CFO Jacob Kaplan. Please go ahead.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Good morning. Welcome everyone to the presentation of Evolution's report for the third quarter of 2023. My name is Martin Carlesund. I'm the CEO of Evolution. With me, as usual, I have our CFO, Jacob Kaplan. I will start with some comments on our performance in the quarter as usual as well, and whereafter I will hand over to Jacob for a closer look at our financials. After that, I will round off our presentation with an outlook for the rest of the year, and then we are happy to take all of your questions. Okay, so let's begin and move to the next slide. The underlying growth drivers of our business remain solid. There is a global audience for the excitement and entertainment that online casino brings, and we are continued to see strong global demand for our games.

During the third quarter, we have released more games than in any earlier quarter, and we are on track to exceed our target of 100 new games in 2023. There is more to come in the fourth quarter with games like Crazy Pachinko and Red Door Roulette, shown here in the slide, and I'll come back to that for the upcoming games later in the presentation. During Q2 and now also Q3, we see higher demand for our Live Casino than we currently can deliver, which is very positive as our games have phenomenal traction and demand. Even so, we need to expand our studio space as well as increase the speed of recruitment.

We are addressing this with full force and the, at the moment, in parallel, building new studios in Europe, LatAm, and also planning to add new studios in North America, as well as expanding existing studios. We have faced some delays in build-out, but even more importantly, need to increase the recruitment pace as the new studios and more tables get ready to be added to the Evolution network. We are in an investment phase, and, we will continue to invest as fast as we can during end of 2023, as well as during 2024. Notable projects this quarter include a new small studio in Colombia, which went live just after the end of the third quarter. A larger studio is also initiated in Colombia as a next step during 2024.

We also aim to open 1 new studio in Europe later this year, and 3-4 new studios are planned both in Europe, North America, and Latin America for 2024. Now, let's move to the coming slides and see the effect of numbers and products on our all our efforts. Let's look at financials. Revenue in the quarter increased by 19.6% to EUR 452.6 million. For the year-to-date period, growth amounted to 26.1%. EBITDA in the quarter increased by 22.1% to EUR 318.6 million, corresponding to a margin of 70.4%. For January to September, we reached a margin of 70.3%, which is in the upper part of our 68%-71% guidance for the full year of 2023.

I'm pleased with the margin level, considering cost levels in the world have increased significantly during the year. Our focus on continuously increasing efficiency in our operations, as well as good cost control throughout the organization, has helped us achieving this. For Live Casino, we grew revenue with 24.3% compared to Q3 last year, summarizing to total revenue of EUR 385.8 million. In the third quarter, RNG revenues amounted to EUR 66.8 million, corresponding to negative growth of 1.9%, and our RNG business amounts to 14.8% of total revenue. For the first nine months, though, we grew RNG with 4.9%. Overall, financial results in the quarter is solid. We prefer to concentrate on factors that we have control in explaining our results, and in general, we continue with this approach.

However, this quarter, the impact from external factors are on a higher level than ever before, so I think it would be wrong not to mention it at all. The strengthening of the euro against most currencies compared to Q3 last year affects our top-line growth during this year. Quantifying those effects in the third quarter, we calculate a 6-8 percentage points negative headwind on growth from currency effects on revenues when comparing to the same quarter last year. Without this headwind, figures would have been very strong. Now, let's move to the next slide. With the fast growth of the company, we need to have an equal high pace in our recruitment, and recruitment will continue to be one of our priorities and one of our key processes.

At the end of the period, we were close to 18,000 Evolutioners, working hard to delight players every day. The increase in headcount year on year amounts to 1,900 employees, corresponding to an increase of 12%. As said, at the beginning of the presentation, we have not added headcount fully as we would have liked to, and together with studio build-out, we are now in full force focusing on expansion. Hiring and retaining the best people is tough as it's ever been, and we're working with this continuously, identifying inefficiencies, improving our recruitment process. Challenges with recruitment are not new to us. It's just a reality in the business that is dependent on continuous high inflow on people. Equally, this is a reason why the, why it's very important to have the right incentive programs in place...

Now, move to the next slide. The game round index shows the development of the whole Evolution network and includes all games. It can be seen as a general indicator for activity in our network. Over time, more game rounds means more activity, leads to increased revenue. This quarter, game rounds increased 36% year-on-year, so a higher growth rate than our total revenue. Game rounds growing faster than revenues is a development we have seen in the past few quarters, and it's natural as the volume of new players from new regions coming in with a lower bet cycles. Looking at the absolute level of the index in Q2 and Q3, you can see some flattening, which to some extent reflects what we discussed in the previous slides, regarding that we see a higher demand of our products than we currently can deliver.

Next slide. Move to products. The width of our product portfolio is already today unmatched in online casino, and there are many more games to come. This year, we launched a record number of exciting games to inspire our current as well as future players. Let me mention a few of the games recently and soon to be launched. Two of the strongest brands in our portfolio are Lightning franchise and Crazy Time. Both will expand in the coming months, and even a combination will be added to the product portfolio. This fall, it's time for the additions to the Crazy Time family. In both of them, we continue to combine the world of live casino and RNG. Red Door Roulette combines the award-winning Lightning Roulette with the exhilarating experience of Crazy Time's most popular bonus game.

The Crazy Time game is going to be Crazy Pachinko, based on the Crazy Time bonus round with the same name. This new addition to the Crazy Time family really shows the outstanding play experiences that we can create when mixing live and RNG together. Lightning Lotto is not just any game. It's a live game. It's a bouncing ball live game that takes the traditional Lotto game players that know and love this game to a new level. We change it up with an electrifying twist and a two-ball drawing machine, completed with a live game host. It's a fast-paced, immersive, high-energy game that's sure to keep the players entertained. With Evolution, players can always find what suits their taste when it comes to gaming experience. The breadth of offering is a major distinguishing factor for Evolution.

Remember that an operator in online casino today is not just competing against other suppliers of online casino, it's competing against the rest of the entertainment industry. We, as Evolution, need to add products that will go up against streaming services and social media platforms for players' time. End-user entertainment is the only true long-term measurement that matters. You need to be able to ensure that you constantly increase the entertainment factor and push boundaries to be relevant for the players. Our games are on the edge, immersive, and entertaining. We constantly develop and move forward and earn the players' attention. Innovation and the best game will always drive Evolution. We continue to innovate, substantially enhance, and refine the player experience. We are currently in full preparation for the roadmap 2024, and yes, it will be the best roadmap ever. 2024 is yet another year of the product.

Move to the next slide. This slide shows the breakdown of our revenue by geographic region. We have a true global and strong demand for our product, which is also reflected in the spread of revenues over geographic regions. Europe continues to have a healthy growth, which amounts to 10% in the third quarter compared to last year. For the first 9 months, the growth amounts to 13%, which is a good sign that we still develop and grow in more, in our most actually mature market. In Asia, we saw continued good growth, which amounts to close to 35% year-on-year. We still see rapid growth in Asia, but the growth rate in percentage terms continues to come down as our size simply gets bigger. Even so, the potential in Asia remains huge, with several billion people population.

Also worth mentioning is that earlier this year, the Philippines became the first country in the region to have a regulation for online gaming in place. North America is growing year-on-year by about 9%. For the period of 9 months, the growth amounts to close to 26%. The decline in revenue from Q2 is due to step back in RNG revenue, while our live offering has steady growth in the quarter. We're working hard to launch new games in the U.S., and we have a fantastic lineup of games, including Crazy Time, soon to be launched, and I have high expectations that they will perform well. There's a good potential that there is a long growth runway, in the existing state, and over time, we will also see more states to regulate. The North American region is still in its early stage of development.

Latin currently makes up about 8% of our total revenue in the quarter, and with a growth in the quarter up to close to 39%. We believe it's the region with a great potential and good momentum. In addition to already launched studios, studio in Argentina, we initiated the construction of a state-of-the-art studio in Colombia to cover the demand we see in the market. We see that the regulatory trend in Latin continue. Earlier this year, Peru passed legislation for online gaming, gambling, and also Brazil has taken some steps forward towards to regulate online gambling . Remains the other region, which mainly consists out of Africa. It stands for merely 3.5% of the group revenue and its future growth opportunity for us.

Share of revenues from regulated market continues to be stable as we see growth on all markets and amount to 40% Q3 2023. With that, I'll hand over to Jacob and move to the next slide.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Thank you, Martin, and good morning to all of you listening. I'll now cover a couple of slides with comments on our financial development during the period. Revenues amounts to EUR 452.6 million in the quarter. It's made up of almost EUR 386 million from Live Casino and EUR 66.8 million from our RNG games. Live Casino is about 85% of our group revenue in the quarter and has year-on-year growth of 24.3%, with an increase of EUR 75 million from the same quarter last year and EUR 14 million increase from the previous quarter this year. I'll come back to this slide in a minute, but I've actually added a slide to show our Live Casino development in a slightly other perspective over time.

This slide shows the increase quarter-on-quarter for our Live Casino. The best line is the average increase per quarter during the past five years, about EUR 17 million per quarter. It's a period that, of course, includes the pandemic years, but also a few years, which I would see as more normal. In the slide, you can see that our increase in the two most recent quarters is much lower than the average for this period. As Martin mentioned, we focus our energy on factors that we control in explaining our financial development. Right now, as you also heard Martin mention, we're not expanding our table capacity as we would like to, and that's affecting our revenue growth.

It's not possible to exactly quantify the financial effects of this under supply, as we call it, so I don't have a straight answer to that question, but clearly, it's something that's limiting us at the moment. So that's what we can control and what we work on, and, and that, you know, I'm confident that we'll be able to fix. But to understand the financial result in the quarter, there are also factors outside of Evolution to address. I'll now spend two minutes talking about currency rates. I think both Martin and I will have full understanding if you rather not listen to it, then if you want to do something else for a couple of minutes, please go ahead. But anyway, during this year, we have seen large movements in currency rates.

It's understandable as shifts in interest rates and the general economy have also been on levels not seen for many years, possibly decades. As a result of this, the euro has strengthened significantly versus most currencies compared to the third quarter 2022. This affects all revenues negatively as players wager and generate gross gaming revenues, GGR, in many different currencies with our operators. That GGR is converted to euro and is the basis for our commission revenue. Stronger euro means that the GGR generated in local currency equals fewer euros, simply put. We estimate that changes in euro rates affect our total growth negatively by 6-8 percentage points in this quarter compared to Q3 last year.

This indirect effect that I just described is not captured in the currency effect that is more direct in our accounting, meaning, if we convert our non-euro invoicing and our non-euro expenses with another rate from a previous period, that's reported separately. This indirect effect, of course, is also not a new thing, but during this year, the movements have been larger than what we have seen previously. So that's why I mentioned it today. However, it doesn't change anything. I can adjust the adjustments until I get completely lost and everything actually looks good, except for the fact that maybe it's not good. So despite all of this talk on currencies, the increase in the quarter is still EUR 14 million. We need to recruit better, we need to add more tables.

We're in a very good position to do so, and that's what we're focused on. All right, I'll now go back to the previous slide and move on to a few comments on our RNG business. RNG revenue amounts to EUR 66.8 million in the quarter. It's a 1.9% decline from the same quarter last year and EUR 2.5 million lower than the previous quarter this year. Not really not happy with our financial delivery in this area. However, as stated earlier, we're making step-by-step improvements. The output on new games is now on a satisfactory level. All our new games are released on our OSS and the roadmap ahead is full of strong games.

Our earlier communicated goals for growth still remain, but, you know, we've already moved into what I would call show territory rather than tell. So, for the next quarters, I'm first of all looking for incremental improvement from where we are today. Also, as I said already in the Q2 comments, the last quarter, while it's not growing as we want, the RNG business, it's very profitable. We have very good cash generation, and we definitely see a lot of potential in this area going forward. EBITDA for the quarter amounts to EUR 318.6 million, giving us an EBITDA margin of 70.4% in the quarter. We keep our guidance of 68%-71% margin for the full year. That was set at the beginning of this year.

As you can see in the chart, we have been within that range each quarter this year. For the year-to-date period, the margin is 70.3%. We're very pleased with the margin level. Some of the pressures to margins we saw in the beginning of the year have materialized but have been offset by hard work and a very good cost awareness in all our teams. This next slide shows our P&L in a little bit more detail. We'll, as usual, walk through it from the top. In the three-month period, July to September, live revenue, as we just talked about, EUR 385 million, and RNG, almost EUR 67 million. This adds up to total revenue of EUR 452 million. That's a growth rate of 19.6%.

That is fully organic, as all the most recent acquisition, Nolimit City, was included also in the third quarter of last year. For the first nine months of the year, growth in total revenue is 26% compared to the same period last year. Moving down to expenses, personnel expenses amount to EUR 91 million. That's an increase of 19% compared to the same period last year. We are adding staff in many locations, but as we have mentioned several times now, we think that we should be able to increase even more going forward. Depreciations amount to EUR 31.4 million. That includes EUR 10.9 million of amortization in intangibles-related acquisitions. Next line is other operating expenses. This includes items such as consumable equipment, communication costs, consultants, and royalties. The line amounts to EUR 43 million in the quarter.

It's up 4% to the same period, 2022. It's also up compared to the previous quarter by a little over EUR 1 million. Summing up, total operating expenses totaled just over EUR 165 million for the period, an increase of 16% compared to the same period last year, and for the first nine months of the year, expenses totaled EUR 483 million, which is an increase of 34% versus last year. Operating profit sums up to EUR 287 million in the quarter. Financial items amount to EUR 5.3 million. This includes interest rate income, interest rate income, which is picking up with the higher interest rates.

Financial items also include a negative accounting charge for interest on our right of use assets, and also there are FX differences related to intra-group transactions and revaluation of bank balances in foreign currency, included here. So there's a bit more than just a pure interest rate income that goes here, but that is the major item in the quarter. Tax is at EUR 19.7 million for the quarter. This is a tax rate of 6.7% for the nine-month period—Oh, sorry, 6.7% for this quarter, and for the nine-month period, the rate is 6.8%.

Tax rate for this year will be around 7%, also in Q4, and from 2024 next year, as has been communicated during probably the past 2 years, tax rate will increase with about 10 percentage points to 16%-17%, as Pillar Two regime comes into effect. So that's... Just want you to know that. I'll move to the next slide before I hand back to you, Martin. We'll start to the left in the slide with the capital expenditure. The gray part of the bars, that's investment in tangible assets, mainly our studio projects. In the quarter, CapEx in tangible assets is EUR 8 million. It's lower than earlier this year.

We have had a slightly lower pace of studio expansion than what we planned at the beginning of the year, but also CapEx can vary quarter, quarterly, depending on how projects develop, but at the little bit lower than, than what we've been earlier. The blue part of the bar is investment in intangible assets. It's related to development of new games and features to the platform. Slight increase throughout the year, it's at the EUR 10.9 million in the quarter. So total CapEx, year to date is, EUR 63, almost EUR 64 million. It's, it's now clear that we will not reach the EUR 120 million for the full year. That was our guidance at the start of the year. We mentioned that it would be a stretch already in Q2, but that, that's now clear.

And as you've heard earlier today, we continue to have ambitious plans for studio expansion going forward, and I expect some increase in CapEx during Q4, but also going in, into next year, so we should pick up here. In the middle of the slide, moving on to the next chart, we show operating cash flow. Continue a very good cash generation in the past period. In the quarter, operating cash flow amounts to EUR 265 million. Operating cash flow in relation to EBITDA on the rolling twelve-month basis is still maintained on a very good level, just under 80%. Outside of operating cash flow, we have, during the period, paid the first tranche of the earn-out to BTG, Big Time Gaming. In total, that was EUR 67 million, of which EUR 47 million was cash.

So including that, cash conversion would be around 75% for the rolling twelve-month period, so it's still very good. Finally, to the far right in the slide here, a quick look at the balance sheet. No big changes. We have a very strong financial position, EUR 813 million in cash at the end of September. Out of that current cash balance, roughly EUR 400 million is according to our dividend policy. That's the accumulated dividend, so far this year, so that's money you will see later. That was the end of my prepared comments, Martin. I'll hand back to you for some closing words.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Thank you very much, Jacob. A few words to conclude this report presentation before we open up for questions. Evolution offers an unparalleled portfolio of unique games, setting the pace for the whole industry with new groundbreaking releases. We're currently in full preparation of the roadmap for 2024. Development is going on full speed, and I can assure you it looks nothing but fantastic. In 2024, we'll take yet another step towards expanding online casino to new players and increase entertainment and excitement even further. Investments for the future will continue in form of new studios and in constant innovation of new products and, of course, in our people in order to fulfill the worldwide demand. As a leading innovator in online casino, together with a record number of new products released every year, we continue to relentlessly increase the gap to our competitors.

We are well equipped for a strong last quarter of the year and, indeed, exciting times ahead. That was my final remarks, and now we move to the next slide and your questions.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Martin Arnell from DNB Markets. Please go ahead.

Martin Arnell
Equity Analyst, DNB Markets

Good morning, everybody.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Good morning.

Martin Arnell
Equity Analyst, DNB Markets

So my first question is on this under supply situation, and, you know, how can you convince us that this is an issue that you can actually solve during the next year?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Let me comment it like this. It's not changed in a heartbeat. It's we were talking about expansion, recruitment, physical builds, and so on. And it's sometimes hard to manage to time that exactly right. So that's what it is. And we're focusing on that, and we are really, really trying to do it as fast as possible. But we're not in the view that we convinced that we're gonna do it at a certain time.

Martin Arnell
Equity Analyst, DNB Markets

Okay. And these problems, is it mainly in Europe, and it's recruitment? Can you explain why is this so difficult, or is it anything else behind it?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

The major hubs are in Europe. We constantly have challenges also elsewhere, but right now we're talking mainly about Europe, the delivery out to Europe. To build out hundreds of thousands of square meters with everything that is what is needed, with all the equipment, that is a complex task. And sometimes you get delays, just like if you would build your own house or whatever you do. So there are physical parameters, deliveries, suppliers, and everything like that. So it's a hard work. And then to recruit on top of that, thousands of people, it's a challenge. There's no fundamental things that have changed for us. It's just that, okay, we're a little bit behind right now, and we see a higher demand for our product than we can supply.

Mind, don't forget that that's a very positive situation, that you have a higher demand for something that you can deliver than the opposite. So, in all fairness, it's a positive problem.

Martin Arnell
Equity Analyst, DNB Markets

If you compare your, you know, your control of this problem today compared to this spring, do you have a better overview of it now, or is it sort of getting worse?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

We have a better overview right now.

Martin Arnell
Equity Analyst, DNB Markets

Okay. These new studios in Europe, 3-4, how concrete are those plans? Is that what you're hoping for, or is it actually sort of are you, you know, in the contract phase of these studios?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

We say 3-4 in next year in Europe, Latin America, North America, and we say we will add 1 more studio in Europe this year. All studios that I mentioned there are concrete plans.

Martin Arnell
Equity Analyst, DNB Markets

Yeah. Okay, good. Just final question is on North America, the growth slowdown there. You know, you work to improve that. You know, I noted that you marketed Crazy Time quite heavily in, at Vegas, at the G2E. You know, certification process, how's that going? Do you expect it to be closed now, or?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

I won't give you a time, but it's going well.

Martin Arnell
Equity Analyst, DNB Markets

Okay. So is it only about certification and getting the new games in, or, you know, what else are you doing in North America to improve?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

There is, of course, a little bit. Now we're getting the R&D delivered, and everything is there. And then there is, of course, a little bit of a lag to get them certified and regulated and compliant in all five states. So there's a little bit lag of that. It's great talking to you, Martin, but I think we might wanna. We need... You can come back later. We need to let a couple of other questioners.

Martin Arnell
Equity Analyst, DNB Markets

Of course. That was my final question. And just so you know, I stayed on when you clarified the effects, that was very-

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Good to hear. Good to hear. Maybe there were no other-

Operator

The next question comes from Oscar Rönnkvist from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.

Oscar Rönnkvist
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Thank you, and good morning, Martin, Jacob. Thanks for taking my question.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Good morning.

Oscar Rönnkvist
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

So just first of all, just on, on market share, I think you, you're mentioning in the outlook statement there that you continue to take market shares and the increased gap to our competitors. I don't know if that's a statement or if that is, like, for, for the upcoming few quarters or, or years, but just, do you have any, anything to elaborate on, on the last couple of months, market share? So you, you do think that you're still expanding the gap to, your competitors? I would, let's say, Pragmatic for in, in particular. So, I mean, they are growing their player numbers at least pretty, pretty fast in baccarat and, and blackjack. So, and, and also, I mean, in, in the U.S., it seems like you're growing slower than the market at the moment.

So if you could just elaborate on, on the market shares, please? Thanks.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

First of all, the market share is very—I mean, I don't have any figures from Pragmatic. I can't compare that. And the competition figures are very scarce, so they are—it's hard to do that. But I know, for example, that we're growing faster than the market, as far as I can see in Europe and also in Latin America in total. Then when it comes to North America, last quarter in a little bit here, so, but in the year to date, it's 26%. Overall, we're, we've got doing very well in Live Casino and we're pushing forward in RNG.

Oscar Rönnkvist
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Understood. Thank you. Just the next one on the demand here. So for instance, roulette, which is, I mean, more scalable than, of course, blackjack, for instance. So, if you could see that the demand is very, very strong overall, and that there are supply chain or supply issues in some of the markets, could we interpret that as, I mean, let's say, roulette, for example, would still be very, very strong in terms of the actual numbers that you report now? Or, is it more like that you also have some challenges in branded tables?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

I won't comment on the table setup in total, but naturally, the demand on the non-scalable product is much higher. So that's where the pumped up demand is. But we also have to remember that the player plays many games, so each session contains many games. You have to satisfy that, otherwise you will end up in a situation little bit where we were during COVID, that we force players into the wrong games.

Oscar Rönnkvist
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Perfect. Thank you. I have one more, if that's okay, just on the weaker macro outlook in general. So, I mean, I thought saw Betsson CEO saying that wouldn't be a headwind, or they haven't seen it at least. I assume that it's the same for you in macro, just regarding any potential headwinds. And then just on cost of living pressure, would that actually be sort of a net positive for you, people not going to retail casinos because of the cost of living pressure, and then maybe staying home and being online instead and going on your types of games?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

We haven't seen any general slowdown in the economy. However, the interest rates, inflation, and the exchange rates are affected by the situation in the world. That's sort of central banks and finance ministers. We just see that, but we don't have any general headwind due to the situation in the world.

Oscar Rönnkvist
Equity Research Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Ed Young from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Ed Young
Executive Director, Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Good morning.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Good morning.

Ed Young
Executive Director, Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Good morning. My first question is on supply. You've always talked about choosing growth over margin, but over the past years, you've obviously exhibited some very good cost control in the face of a lot of different cost pressures. The one thing you haven't mentioned at all in terms of recruitment is around wages. Do you think there's a possibility you've been too restrictive on wages, and actually you might need to invest some margin into wages in order to solve recruitment? Or do you really think it is all just about processes, as you've talked about so far?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

I don't see that we are paying a premium salary for the level of work that we do, and I think that we are in the right level. I don't see that it's the salary level that has created a situation where we are not delivering to the demanded market, no.

Ed Young
Executive Director, Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay, my second one-

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

One more comment. Sorry, Ed. Sorry. If that would be the case, and we would have that indication, the statement still stands. We will go for growth and market share before margin. So, if I would have a possibility to solve that with investing more money or paying more, we would do that. But I wouldn't do that and waste the owners' money to throw money at the problem that I don't think is the solution. So the statement still stands, and we would invest if needed.

Ed Young
Executive Director, Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay, understood. The second thing on North America, you've talked a bit about it already. I don't want to labor that, but I know you spent some time there this summer. Could you talk a little bit about, more broadly, what you've looked at changing that business? What wasn't working correctly, or what do you hope you've managed to change in that area?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

In North America?

Ed Young
Executive Director, Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Yes.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

We have a fantastic good new management in place. I look forward to see what they can deliver, so we made some changes with that. We need to be much closer to the market when it comes to commercial, and we also need to have the games there to deliver. Now when we got the games flow going in out of engineering and product, we also need to get them through regulation and compliance, and there is a little bit of a lag. So we look forward to the coming quarters.

Ed Young
Executive Director, Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay, final, final question on, on capital allocation. Cash pile is over EUR 800 million. I appreciate, Zach, if you set the dividend to be EUR 400 million, but you'll presumably produce EUR 250 million-ish of cash in, in Q4 as well. So at, at what point would the shares now sort of down year-to-date, despite the profit growth you've achieved, do, do you think it would be appropriate for the company to consider allocating some of that capital in the form of buybacks or something similar?

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

... Yeah, there's no other answer to that than previously. And the—like you point out, the main way of shifting capital back to owners is our dividend policy, which is, you know, 50% on net profit. And beyond that, in the—we have done buybacks in the past, about a year ago, I think was the last time. So it is not ruled out in any way, but it's ultimately a decision for our board.

Ed Young
Executive Director, Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Okay, thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Monique Pollard from Citi. Please go ahead.

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

Hi. Morning, morning, everyone.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Morning.

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

Morning. The first question I had was just on the interest income. Obviously, JW explained that there were a few one-offs in there, and it wasn't just the sort of straightforward interest income. Could you just give me an understanding of whether the one-offs were largely drags rather than benefits? As in, you know, is the underlying interest income even better than what was reported today?

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Yeah, they're not one-offs, really. I mean, you can say that the IFRS 16 charge, that's recurring, so that's kind of a component that's there every quarter. Then the FX on... Like, what if one of our euro companies holds dollars on the bank account, that gets revalued, so that is a little bit up and down. In this quarter, it's slightly negative, but the main item there is interest income, and it's a little bit higher than the total given these other items. But I wouldn't say they are big others. It's not big one-offs. So if the-- Yeah, but that's... Did that answer your question?

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

Yeah. Yeah, that's clear.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Mm-hmm.

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

The second question I had was just on the FX headwind. So thanks for that detail earlier. Just wanted to understand if there was any sort of transactional FX headwind as well from sort of. I understand that you're largely invoicing in euros, but then you did mention some non-euro invoicing, et cetera, and just understanding sort of what the cash impact is of cash sitting in other currencies.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Yeah, there's a couple of the different components there. I mean, the what we call the direct FX effect, and that we reported every quarter this year, that is, if we revalue the invoicing or our revenues in non-euro currencies, and then, you know, the same for our expenses in non-euro currencies. That is actually a positive effect in this quarter on EBITDA level. So you could say our dollar expenses are a little bit less than in euros than in this quarter, than if they would have been valued at, you know, the exchange rates from one year ago. So that's the more direct component, and that's what we normally talk about.

What we call out in with the 68% revenue, that is more indirect. It's what I tried to explain that you say that the GGR that's generated in local currencies, even if it's invoiced in euros, it's not captured in that first FX effect we talk about. But indirectly, it of course also affects revenues since the amount of GGR varies with the exchange. So in that case, the stronger euro would lead to lower revenues for us because, you know, we get the lower down. So there, there's yeah, it's a bit of a mess with FX, but you heard it before. We try, we of course follow it, but it's nothing that we spend too much time on trying to control.

But it's in this quarter, it's a relatively big headwind, so I think it's right to understand it. But yeah, that's how it is. Hope I answered your questions.

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

Okay. Sorry, just to follow up, though.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Mm-hmm.

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

The FX impact this quarter, though, apart from the translational impact that I understand, there wasn't much of a... The cash impact was minor and slightly better.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Yeah. That absolutely, that's fair to say.

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

Yeah.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Absolutely, in relation to the 68% we talked about. So yes, that's the minor impact. Yes.

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

Okay. And then, sorry, just the final question was, obviously, Martin, you've been clear that you're undersupplying the market, particularly in Europe. Are there things that we can be looking at from the outside that help us understand sort of how you... Obviously, you understand internally that you're undersupplying the market, but are there things that we can be tracking that help us to see the ways in which you're undersupplying the market and get an indication as to when that starts to ease?

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

What? I mean, naturally, we have all the BI and all the data, so we see when a table opens and when we need to add a table, and when we don't need to add a table, and where it's needed and what. So when we say that we undersupply to the market or we have a higher demand, I know that we do not add what is needed. That part of data is something that you would not see. It's very hard for you to get that. I don't see how you would get that.

So right now we're undersupplying, but you can also just notice that the figure 6%-8% in FX headwind, it's very large, and the undersupply is mainly, let's say-

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

... non-scalable products and much, much less or much less.

Monique Pollard
Analyst, Citi

Got it. Understood. Thank you.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Thank you.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Thanks, Monique.

Operator

The next question comes from Raymond Ke from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Raymond Ke
Analyst, Nordea

Yeah. Hi, good morning. Two questions from me. First one, you write in the report that you made progress in RNG despite a declining growth. Could you elaborate on the difference between how you work with RNG game releases before compared to now?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

First of all, we, we released the right amount of games during Q3, so we're, we're on track with the release schedule. That's the first quarter we are there. And then, of course, now we need to work with the commercial to see that we, that we get used and handle these higher amounts of RNG games that, that are there. So that, that we are working on, and of course, there's a little bit of lag on, in that. And then we have to push those new games over the Atlantic and get them into compliance department and get them regulated and compliant in all five states that we're operating right now. So, so that's how we progress with that. And I would say that there is a, it's a better quarter three than quarter two.

We can see that it's a little bit step forward. Also remember then that the FX effect that we talk about also affect this part of business.

Raymond Ke
Analyst, Nordea

All right, thank you. And then regarding the global minimum tax rate of 15% set to be implemented in 2024, I assume you talk to tax experts, do you get the sense that your tax rate is going to end up north of 15%, or are there caveats that make you believe it can be lowered somehow?

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

No, I think you know, the basic effects for us is that the tax rate in Malta today is effectively 5%, and then that will increase 10% to 15%. So, now, not all our profits are in Malta, but a large share of our profits are in Malta. So pretty much that comes through on the group level. Then, of course, as we grow, I mean, we've had a trend upwards on tax over the past years, and that's as we establish ourselves in more parts of the world, we of course, pay tax in all jurisdictions where we are active.

So, then we'll see. I mean, there can be, like you said, there can be caveats, and of course many countries want to remain an attractive place for investment. So we'll see how things develop. But, as a base case now, I would just, like we talked about before, it will go up 10... We'll increase 10 percentage points. Yeah, it goes from 5% to 15% in Malta, and that comes through on the group.

Raymond Ke
Analyst, Nordea

Okay. Thank you very much.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Kiranjot Grewal from BofA. Please go ahead.

Kiranjot Grewal
Analyst, BofA Securities

Hey, good morning, guys.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Morning.

Jacob Kaplan
CFO, Evolution

Good morning.

Kiranjot Grewal
Analyst, BofA Securities

I just had a couple of questions on the studios. It's great to see that acceleration in the rollout plans. You've been sitting on a pretty large cash pile for a while, and, you know, we've heard from you that demand is running ahead of what you can manage for a while. So what's been sort of the delay in rolling studios out? Have you been trying to get closer to sign off before flagging them to us?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Have you tried to get closer to?

Kiranjot Grewal
Analyst, BofA Securities

Signing off on those before flagging the rollouts to us, or were you just not looking for new studios for a while?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

When it comes to the undersupply, and I'm not sure I completely get the question, but it's the same answer for—it's a—we build studios, hundreds and thousands of square meters, and it's a quite lengthy—it's an 18-month minimum process to build a studio. So we are constantly in that, and now we are facing a little bit delays in that. We're not getting it to where we want. And then on top of that, we are not recruiting fast enough. I mean, don't get me wrong, we are recruiting, but we're not recruiting fast enough, so we need to speed that up. And those two comes together, and that's why we're undersupply.

Kiranjot Grewal
Analyst, BofA Securities

Got it. And I think in the past, when we've spoken about struggles or recruitment, you've also mentioned, recruiting the right languages in your existing studios. Is this true? And if so, should we expect another studio to come in a major metropolitan city within Europe rather than sort of Eastern Europe?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

I won't comment exactly where, but naturally, we put the studios where we think we can recruit the nationalities and the persons we need, and the volume is there. So we have Madrid and Malta, and we're adding a couple of them in Europe to get a higher pace in delivery.

Kiranjot Grewal
Analyst, BofA Securities

Got it. Just the last one on studios. Are you planning the large footprint studio sites like we've got in Riga, or is this going to be, you know, much more focused, smaller studios for the language maps that you have?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

I think that medium-sized studios is what we are planning to add.

Kiranjot Grewal
Analyst, BofA Securities

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Some smaller and some a bit larger, but medium-sized. That I would regard Riga as an upper medium studio.

Kiranjot Grewal
Analyst, BofA Securities

... Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Simon Davies from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Simon Davies
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah, morning. Just one last from me, please. In the U.S., there's obviously been a quieter period in terms of iGaming states opening up, and I'm assuming that must be one of the features behind the slowing growth rate. What are your expectations in terms of new state openings over the next 12-18 months? Do you—I presume you'll have your ear to the ground in terms of latest speculation.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Yeah, there is always a lot of speculation on that. And I think we have stated that it could be 1, 2 a year, but it could also be 3 years without one, and then it could be 3, 1 year. Right now, there are the usual suspects, as before. There's always talks about New York. I think that is a little bit more of a dream than reality. There is Illinois, Indiana, and there are a few others bubbling. And it's a political process, and I think that your guess is almost as good as mine, but there are these usual suspects. Mind you, and we had this situation before, suddenly Pennsylvania came and outperformed all the others, and suddenly it was regulated. So it could be the next regulation could be someone that we haven't talked about.

Simon Davies
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Right. You're not hearing any of anything imminent?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

No.

Simon Davies
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jonas Wortmann from Investor. Please go ahead.

Jonas Wortmann
Shareholder, Private Investor

Good morning, everyone.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Good morning.

Jonas Wortmann
Shareholder, Private Investor

I think, so in my opinion, this quarter was again, very good. Honestly, I think Evolution is one of the best business models in the world, and the whole management team is doing a great job. And I think it's quite normal that business figures fluctuate quarter by quarter, and therefore, it is almost irrelevant for the long-term success, whether the margin in the next quarter is 68 or 71, or whether the growth is 25 or 30%. I think the only challenge which has to be addressed promptly is to deliver capacities for the excess demand. The management follows the right strategy to invest heavily in new studios during the coming quarters. Since every customer who cannot be served right now will probably lead to a loss in market share as he is playing with other suppliers.

My first question is: How long does it take you to open up a new studio? From the point of seeing excess demand to build up a studio, hiring staff and run it on full capacity?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

The lead time for a new studio from planning to execution, 12-24 months. So they are always in the pipeline. We're always working on that, the 12-24 months.

Jonas Wortmann
Shareholder, Private Investor

Oh, okay. I see. And my second question is whether the excess demand in Europe can be served through the studios in the U.S. as a short-term solution, since there needs to be a studio in every state, there might be excess capacity, which could be used.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Currently, that is not the case, but that is possible, even though a good thought.

Jonas Wortmann
Shareholder, Private Investor

All right. Thank you.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Thank you.

Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from James Rowland Clark from Barclays. Please go ahead.

James Rowland Clark
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Hi, morning, everyone. Just a few-

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Morning.

James Rowland Clark
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Hopefully a few short ones to finish up. I was just curious on your comments about, you know, not hiring at a fast enough rate. Could you also just talk about your existing live dealer staff? Are you seeing any change in the churn rate for that sort of, for your existing live dealer, you know, staff count, or is it the same as it, it previously was?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

I would say that it's getting mathematically lower, so the service length is increasing in general.

James Rowland Clark
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Okay. And then, could you just elaborate to us on the timing of RNG delivering double-digit growth, please? Maybe update us on your thoughts there. I know you've added a lot of games, but perhaps, a bit more color on when you think that could turn. Thank you.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Yeah. So we haven't set a timeline on that. Like I commented earlier, I think, you know, definitely the ambition is still there, but from where we are, you know, this quarter, we're actually 1.9% lower than the same point last year. So we'll take it from here, show some improvements from this level. So we haven't set a timeline on double digits, but of course, it's absolutely a possibility we still strive for that.

James Rowland Clark
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Okay. And so my final one is just on the supply of studios and staff to the market. You've got this slowing revenue growth, and you know, it's gonna take you a little bit of time to add sufficient capacity to service the demand. How can you convince us that you are holding on to market share, or indeed gaining market share, given your earlier comments, and you've actually put it in the release, that you are taking market share, still you're still ahead of the market? You've got a time lag now where you're not servicing the demand. So how do you, you know, how do you sort of corroborate, or how do you convince us that that is the case, that you're holding market share, but not quite meeting the demand? There are other players. Sorry.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

The first one, the first comment on that is that you have all our figures, and it's very, very hard to actually get figures from anyone else. So, so that there we are blindsided. So the only thing that we can rely to is the little data we have, where institute deliver data on Europe, and we compare to that, or, or we get sort of some, some idea on, on Asia, or, or we look at states in, in U.S. And that data is also available for you, and, and that's what we have. So with that data, that's where our statement rests. However, we are not here to convince you of our market share. We only tell, that's how we look at it. If we would have all the data, we would produce it to you.

James Rowland Clark
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Okay, thank you. One final one, one, hopefully it's quick, is what do you think the impact is on under supply in terms of your live dealer growth for the foreseeable future?

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

We haven't quantified that, but I gave you the indication that it's at least much lower than the headwind in FX rates.

James Rowland Clark
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Okay, thank you.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Is there another question, or?

Operator

The next question comes from Ali Gündüz, from Private Investor. Please go ahead.

Ali Gündüz
Shareholder, Private Investor

Hi, good morning, guys. My question is about your long-term product vision, specifically about scale of your game show R&D. So this year you launched Funky Time, probably the highest budget iGaming project ever. And now that some time has passed since that launch, are you satisfied with the ROI of the project, both in terms of player interest and financial performance also? So do you think the future of Evolution's opportunities in the Live sector lies in similar or even bigger projects, bigger budget projects, where you can take advantage of your scale compared to competition? Or is it rather about releasing many numbers of smaller to medium scale game shows? Thanks.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

First answer is that, yes, we are very happy with Funky Time. It's a fantastic game, performing very well. Secondly, of course, the size of our network is the biggest online gambling network in the world, has the potential to receive these fantastic games that we do, and they get this exposure, so that's of course a competitive advantage. And yes, we'll be back to release many more entertaining, fantastic, large game shows.

Ali Gündüz
Shareholder, Private Investor

Okay, thanks.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad.

Martin Carlesund
CEO, Evolution

Okay, I think that that was the final question. And it was a pleasure to, to have you all, and I look forward to see you in a quarter. Thank you very much.

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