Holmen AB (publ) (STO:HOLM.B)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Aug 19, 2022

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Welcome everybody, and welcome to the interim report presentation by myself, Henrik, and Anders Jernhall. We do as we usually do, we go through the presentation, and then we're happy to take your questions after that. Let's start with the first slide, which is a very nice one for us this time. Another record quarter, which means that in environment characterized by lack of raw material and energy, we've been able to perform a, in our history, a fantastic result. Thanks to, first of all, really good control over the raw material when it comes to wood supply, favorable energy situation, and also we've been able to raise prices in all our business areas. Earning a lot of money, Anders, also means that our net debt, despite the fact that we gave an extra dividend, we also invested in half a wind farm.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yeah.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

We bought some forest. The net debt after that is actually down a little bit thanks to good cash flow during the first and second half of the year. A few words about the situation in the forest market. We have had a quite long period now when sawmills have been running full, that we have seen that there is quite the competition for sawlogs in the market. Lately, and during the second quarter, we're also seeing that competition for pulpwood has picked up, which is not so strange after all. We also have the Russian situation, where we know that Russian wood, pulpwood, is no longer coming into the rest of Europe. Pulp mills have been running quite full, and that also means that prices are up.

Now, not only sawlogs, but also pulpwood, which has had some effect on the result, I guess.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yes. We see that in the second quarter, we finally got the effect of pricing, increasing prices in the wood market, so it's quite a nice and good revenue that has been added to the Q2 result, coming in at close to SEK 350 million.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

As expected.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yeah.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Moving on to paperboard. This is a market which have been developing quite favorable. We have seen last few years slightly higher demand or increased demand, bit more than we're used to. Lately also maybe mainly thanks to this, depending on high cost for some producers, prices have also been able to be pushed up a bit. Where we are right now, our order books are good. On the other hand, when we look at the deliveries from European suppliers in the beginning of this year, we see that it is a little bit slower than it used to be, which is not strange in this market situation. If we look at the result after a quarter which have been also quite good when it comes to producing.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yes, we see that we increased prices during the second quarter and all the price increases have come through in quite a quick manner, which have improved the result in Q2, but we also see that cost for chemicals and logistics are risen quite a lot this year and will continue to rise a bit. We have been able to moderate the cost inflation by especially the very strong energy situation we have in our board division being self-sufficient.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Cannot be stressed enough, to be honest, in this situation where both mills are self-sufficient.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yeah.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Moving on to paper. This is a market where it's really driven by cost. Prices are up. They were up in the beginning of the year, and they have continued to come up during the second quarter as well. Increasing prices a lot means, of course, that it has sooner or later some effect on demand. If we look at the slide, we know that over time, this is structural decline, and when prices are up as much as they are in this year, one could expect that we will see a bit more dramatic fall than what we see when we look at trailing 12 months. It means that operating rates among the producers aren't fantastic. They are maybe mid-70s today. Still, in the market, the cost determines what prices must be charged to customers, and in our case, we have been doing rather well.

We have produced and have a good order stock and order level during the quarter. We also have good control of the raw material, the wood, thanks to our own forest and well-done work in the forest organization. We also have a fairly favorable situation when it comes to energy and cost in general. Maybe you can elaborate a little bit on that also when we look at the result, which is fantastic by the way.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yeah. It's a.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Fantastic.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

There's no other word to it. It's a fantastic result in the second quarter, and it's not only driven by market pricing going up. Half of the improvement is actually to how we have been able to manage our mills. It's fascinating to see how quickly all our employees in the paper division has adapted to the new energy situation where prices are volatile intraday, it's extreme volatility, but everybody all the way out to mill operator and production planning has adapted to a new way of running our machines and adjust power outtake during these days without sacrificing production efficiency or customer satisfaction. It's a fantastic job done by our employees to contain energy costs, and we also have been favored by quite good hedging execution of hedging strategy. It's a great result, sincerely.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Totally agree. I don't think we can expect that we will be running totally full in the future. We have to follow the market and continue working this way. Then wood products, or should we call it rollercoaster products? A fantastic quarter, fantastic first half year, but we know that at the end of the second quarter, we see that prices are coming down in an environment, again, energy crisis, inflation, the whole construction side of the business waiting to see what is going to happen. That's also the feeling we have right now as we stand here that customers have enough in stock, and they are waiting to see what is going to happen.

If we just give an indication where we are today as we say that prices are on their way down, well, today we are roughly 20%-25% lower, but it's quite a big spread between different products and markets compared to average for Q1.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Q2.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Q2, sorry. Of course. It's a chaotic market, not easy to say exactly where it's going, but as we are right now, prices are still falling a bit. Exactly where they will turn up again, very hard to say. I think we have to keep an eye on something else as well. It's not only the situation we have the next couple of weeks or month, it's also a long-term question as we believe we have. First of all, it's an interesting business to be in. Building in wood is still fantastic compared to some other materials and has the future ahead of itself. Also when it comes to cost competitive position, we in Sweden, especially our company, we have a very strong position.

It's all about wood availability long term that will determine the winners and the ones struggling a bit more. If we just look at the chart here, we see that we know the situation in Russia, which is a huge exporter of wood products. We also know that during the war and what will come after war, we don't know for sure, but it's not easy to or we cannot expect Russia to increase or even be at the level we have seen historically. We saw in the market in the beginning when the war started that actually there came quite a lot of wood products out into the markets, also into Europe. Since July, roughly, there is no more wood products or wood coming from Russia into Europe. Russia has its own problem. We move to Canada.

Canada has also its own problem, especially in British Columbia. A lot of the forest is gone or too far away from the sawmills because of the bark beetle infestation we've had for many years. On the other hand, we have the east side of Canada where production is picking up, but cost level is not as competitive as ours as we see it. We also had logistical problems in Canada, but long term, I think it's more a question of where are the sawmills? Where is the raw material? We have continental Europe. A lot of bark beetle infestation also in continental Europe. For some time, we have seen that they had to take out a lot of wood, of course, to not only produce wood products, but also to export simply saw logs.

Over time, that should mean that they most probably have to reduce a bit. Where the new level will be, we will see. It's actually only the Nordic countries, not least Sweden and companies like ours, where we have really good control of the raw material and also good cost position. Not only because we have a wood market that works in that way, but also that we have, in most cases, sawmills, pulp mills, and other operations together in very efficient combinates. To build a sawmill in Russia without having a pulp mill next door, it's not the same. It's not the same as you don't have anyone buying the wood chips and the sawdust in the same way as we can do here. I think we have to stay cool, and I think we have very interesting opportunities going forward.

Let's concentrate on the second quarter. This was a different quarter.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yeah. The second quarter was our best ever for the wood products. We benefited from the price increases in Europe. We had a very strong Q1 where we captured a lot of profits by exporting large volumes to U.S. We couldn't repeat that, which was a known fact before the quarter. We saw that log costs rose a bit in Q2 and are still on the rise. It's a very strong quarter, the second quarter.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Absolutely. A few words about renewable energy in a world where we have an energy crisis and extreme electricity and energy prices. What have we done? Well, we have actually increased our production of renewable energy through the startup of Blåbergsliden Wind Farm. We also bought the shares of half of Varsvik, adding up to now 1.7 terawatt-hours of green electricity production in Holmen. We have an extreme situation not only in Sweden, but also if we look at Europe and different parts in Sweden and huge price increases. In our case, it's a bit. It's not so good for Sweden, and it feels like we could do a lot more when it comes to using our, at least our hydropower, but also wind power. Most of it, as you know, is up north.

There is a lack of transmission capacity, which means that electricity is to some extent much too much of it is locked in northern parts of Sweden. This is something that has to change, otherwise it will be extremely difficult to, first of all, have electricity-intensive industry in the south and to also have a situation that makes sense up north building new capacity. This is more a question for the politicians, but it's urgent. We can do a bit, Anders. We can run the hydropower as well as we can in order to capture good prices.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yeah. As usual, we do run our hydropower towards the hours where it makes the most use for society and gives us most revenues. It adds nicely to our profit. Should our hydropower stations there had been free flow down to the southern part of Sweden, we've earned a lot more from our hydropower. It's given the circumstances, a good result, but it can be better.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

It could have been a lot better.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

It's also nice to note that our business idea to grow houses works very good also in extreme times of energy crisis, inflation, et cetera. That's about it. We're happy to take your questions. Thank you.

Operator

The first question is from Lars Kjellberg from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Lars Kjellberg
Director, Credit Suisse

Thank you for taking my question. Just a couple of questions starting with paperboard, which seems to be the area where you're not that massively benefiting from your cost base. Is that relating more to long-term contracts? Are you not seeing the same sort of massive cost pressures, you know, i.e., for your competitors in continental Europe and/or what really explains that sort of not quite explosive numbers we've seen in the other parts of the business? You talked about paper, and interestingly, the first company really talks about price elasticity, which of course makes a ton of sense. What confused me a bit, you talked about a 70% operating rate, that seems very low. Does that suggest that demand has really started to come off in recent months?

Because we haven't really seen that big dive in available statistics as of yet. The final point on paper, I guess, you called out very strong operational performance, which is clear from the numbers you provided. Can you explain a bit what you've actually done? What is behind that extreme positive operational performance?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

If I start with the paperboard. Our prices are to some extent, or half of them are in fixed long-term contracts, and that mutes the price development a bit. It's also we are competing to a very large extent with Nordic-based producers with a not as bad energy situation as continental Europe, where most of our competitors in paper operates.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Yes. When it comes to paper, I think first of all, our own operating rates are better. We do see that the decline in the market is, well, it's declining a bit faster. At least the last couple of months, which is not strange given the price increases we see in the market. It's all theory, and I don't think that all paper mills that we have on the list have been running full for quite some time actually. In reality, less capacity is there in the market, but this means finally that the ones with the best cost position will survive, and some of them simply need to die. That's the situation we've had for a long time.

Our situation is that we have a very favorable cost situation, but not only that, we also have a favorable wood sourcing situation. We are doing it a bit different, and as Anders explained before, it's also a way to, or the way we do it is really to start and stop if needed, depending on the energy situation in Sweden, which is not easy.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

We have invested in the past in the ability to store pulp and go down in power outtake during the most expensive hours. Those are small examples, but there are also quite a lot of price differences within the Nordics between hours, between days, and we've been good at exploiting those price differences throughout our whole organization.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

The way the price is set in the market now is mainly based on the cost for energy in continental Europe in combination with the cost for recycled fibers. We have, as you know, a slightly different situation there.

Lars Kjellberg
Director, Credit Suisse

Indeed. Just one very quick follow-up on paperboard. One of the major U.S. producers started to talk about the energy arbitrage, although being mainly on recycled paperboard, but they're also trying to qualify product for the European market given the extreme high costs in Europe. Are you seeing any tentative signs of any exports of containerboards from the United States into Europe at all?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

No, not to my knowledge. Not in our segment, I would say. If you go down into lower segments, then maybe, but then I don't know. We haven't seen it.

Lars Kjellberg
Director, Credit Suisse

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Linus Larsson from SEB Enskilda. Please go ahead.

Linus Larsson
Financial Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Thank you very much. I'd like to continue on paper and, if you could just, give us some color on price expectations for this third quarter, what kind of opportunities do you have? What's your, you know, contract structures as of now? Are you still working with, different kinds of surcharges? Is your whole portfolio, potentially up for renegotiation? If you could just give some color on your, pricing opportunities and flexibility.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

I think, Linus, first of all, if you look back a few years or some years, we historically did yearly contracts or half year contracts, but that's all changing. It's simply impossible to give long-term contracts in a situation where nobody knows what the cost will be the next quarter or even the next month. When it comes to the contracts, it's changing much quicker than we're used to do. We are down maybe next year to monthly contracts in some cases already today. Then, as you say, people use surcharges or not. I think it will simply be you have to set the price where you cover your cost. At the moment, it's again, recycled fibers and energy on the continent that determines where the cost base is or what the cost is that you need to be able to produce.

Linus Larsson
Financial Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Just to continue on pricing, you're alluding to your expectation of accelerating demand decline on back of these deep price increases. Could you give some picture of how the European customer base is doing? I mean, your own customers, but also generally publishers and so forth.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

I think it's a bit too early, but of course, they are concerned about the cost. It's also a big difference between a book publisher and a magazine and a retailer giving out leaflets. It's totally different way of calculating. If you take a book, for example, it's not much compared to what you pay for a book. It's all cost to make people come into a shop, well, then it's different. One can only expect that everyone is thinking carefully, "Where do I spend my money, and do I get payback for my money?" Normally, when you have things like the price increases we see, well, then it has at least some effect on demand.

When I say that the demand decline is accelerating, it's what we see the last couple of months. It feels a bit softer than what the trailing twelve says. It gives slightly different picture.

Linus Larsson
Financial Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Just finally from my side on paper, you mentioned hedge gains in the second quarter. Going into the third quarter, what's your situation on energy hedging and maybe also the currency hedging in maybe specifically paper?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

We were very, the outcome was very favorable in the second quarter. We have a good hedging level in the third quarter, but there could be some headwind from increasing costs going into the third quarter. It's a bit too early to tell.

Linus Larsson
Financial Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Could you quantify the hedge gains in paper in the second quarter?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

No, it's not correct to call them hedge gains, but it's a combination of how we have been able to run the mills, together with the hedges that we have in place.

Linus Larsson
Financial Analyst, SEB Enskilda

You're expecting the same kind of favorable hedging in the third as in the second quarter, or is there a sequential difference in any way?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

This is, I can't quantify it, but it could be some headwind. Not significant, but some headwind.

Linus Larsson
Financial Analyst, SEB Enskilda

Okay.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

We continue to operate in the same way. Yeah.

Linus Larsson
Financial Analyst, SEB Enskilda

All right. Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Oskar Lindström from Danske. Please go ahead.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Yes, thank you. A couple questions from me. First on paper, following up from the previous two people here on the call. You say you're managing your energy costs, and I...

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

You mean how is it, is it possible?

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. How is it possible? You mentioned something about storing sort of pulp. Is this something which is possible when production is lower and that you therefore can sort of choose to produce the pulp when energy electricity spot prices are low? Or what are the sort of mechanics behind this managing?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

You can do two things, Oskar. You can do two things. We have an ability. We have overcapacity on pulp, which means that we can produce when prices are lower within limits.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

It's sort of, and then you can take downtime on the paper machine as well. Of course, we're using both tools to maneuver in combination with the hedges that we have, in combination with the production planning, and the way we run our machines.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

The extreme price.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Yeah.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Fluctuations we see also in Sweden.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Yeah.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

This was something which 'cause it's quite a significant jump, Q2 versus Q1. Was this something that was implemented during this quarter?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Don't forget, we have increased paper prices quite a lot as well. It takes some time to learn how to do this, and you maybe have to have some luck as well. Can we repeat it completely in Q3? You can't. I don't take it for granted. It was extremely well executed in the second quarter.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

All right. Following up on paper also, I mean, one cost inflation factor for Continental European producers are gas prices, obviously. The other one is recovered paper prices.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Yes.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

What is the reason for the sort of significant shift up in recovered paper prices in Europe? Do you see that as being a long-term shift?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

When you produce printing paper or graphic paper down in continental Europe based on recycled fibers, remember that you can only use old newspapers and magazines. You could use some wood-free as well, but nothing that's brown. You have to either find clean sources or sort out the brown, which will be testliner and fluting. If you look at the price development and also demand development, the less we consume in Europe, the less availability of these fibers there are, the more you have to pay for sorting out the brown and also to find it when it comes to logistics, et cetera. I think that's the reason why you see that the price for OMP, OMG has come from, let's say EUR 200 to EUR 300 today. You have the yield effect. It's not only fibers in the mix.

You have to take it by a factor of roughly 1.3 to come to the real cost for fiber. Then, as you correctly say, you have to add on gas and logistics and some other things. Don't forget, this is a consequence of a lot of virgin fiber production capacity that was closed.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Mm.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

During the pandemic. This was sort of quite clear that this should happen. The magnitude is larger than we expected, but that it should happen when you close down virgin fiber. You don't refill the system to the printing paper system with virgin fiber when you have closed down so much virgin fiber capacity. It's quite natural what's happening right now.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

It sounds like you're saying this is a structural shift which maybe might even get stronger. A third question for me is on wood products and wood supply in continental Europe. I mean, you mentioned this overharvesting, which has been going on in continental Europe.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Mm.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Due to sort of trying to keep ahead of the bark beetles there.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Yes.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Are we now seeing harvesting levels come down, or are they gonna remain sort of above average levels or remain at high levels also this year and next year? Or when will we see the sort of shadow effect from the overharvesting?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

We don't know exactly, Oscar, but I think we can at least predict. When you look at the weather we have had this summer, it's unfortunately a huge risk that the bark beetle infestation has not come to an end yet. Even though a lot of old trees have been taken out, there is still plenty more that could be infested. Like in Sweden, we have to wait and see, but sooner or later, that will happen, that you have to take down the harvesting levels in order to come back to a sustainable balance in the forests.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

All right. Thank you. My final question is on wind power. I mean, you scaled back or down one of your projects in southern Sweden here this before the summer. I mean, do you see sort of opportunities to increase the speed of your build-out of wind power?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

We see huge opportunities, but if we are going to be able to really do it, we are dependent on the permits. Oscar, that takes too long.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

I mean, are you seeing, like, buying, you know, other people's projects? Or, I mean, do you see opportunities to mitigate the sort of permitting issue and

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Mm-hmm.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Increase the speed of the build-out?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

We stick to our strategy to develop wind farms where the majority is on our land and that we develop ourselves. We're filling up the pipeline, but it takes time to do it.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

All right. Thank you. Those were all my questions.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Thank you, Oscar.

Operator

The next question is from Christian Kopfer from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Well, thanks operator. Good morning, everyone. Just two questions from my side. Firstly, you talked about paper, graphic paper a lot this morning, but still I have a follow-up on that.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Yes.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Maybe I got it wrong, but my interpretation was quite clearly that you didn't see so much raised prices in Q2 versus Q1, and then prices came out quite dramatically. Was it something that changed, you know, very late, or-

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

No.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

What happened here?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

I did.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

The outcome both on the cost and price side exceeded our expectations as well. It's...

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

What was that surprise even by the end of the quarter, or did you know it all along from the beginning?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

No. I think when it comes to price, as we said before, Christian, it's changing from month to month, and it's mainly cost-driven.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Okay. I thought you primarily had, you know, the shortest term contracts you had was like one quarter. Maybe you have some monthly contracts as well.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

No, no, you're right. Things are changing.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Things, it's also these surcharges, which have had effect. Quarter-over-quarter, you have a surcharge effect. We didn't have surcharges for the full first quarter, and the levels have been changing a bit.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Okay.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

That explains to a large extent the strong pricing momentum.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Right. On renewable energy, I hear what you say here on Henrik on the energy situation in the north. You know, consumption will, you know, dramatically increase. Transmission takes a lot of time to build, yeah? I think really, you know, the southern parts three and four should not be expecting dramatic increase in electricity from the north. I mean, I think you should definitely increase your focus on building electricity or power supply in the southern parts as well, yeah?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

I agree, but I think we should do both.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Yeah. I mean, but if you look at consumption, I think, I mean, it's, you know, it will more like double in the north. Maybe there will be an undersupply in the north in the next-

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Could be. Don't forget that the Swedish energy system, electricity system needs hydropower to stabilize the system in the south, as we will add on.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Yep.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

A lot of probably wind power, maybe some solar power, et cetera. To have it locked in in the northern parts of Sweden, that's not logical. Not good for Sweden. Not good for us.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

In Östergötland. Sorry if you mentioned it, but in that part, you have worked a lot with the plans. Do you have some news there? I mean, how is it going with the negotiations?

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

I think we have to, first of all. You know, there is. The government has said that they will look into how communities, people living next door, et cetera, will be compensated in the future. We also have an election in a few weeks. Before we have the election, and maybe we have to wait what the outcome of those rules for the future, how to handle it. We hope that will change the game a bit.

Christian Kopfer
Equity Research Analyst, Handelsbanken

Yeah. Hope so as well. Thanks, guys.

Operator

The next question is from Robin Santavirta from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Robin Santavirta
Equity Analyst, Carnegie

Thank you very much. In terms of the paperboard business of yours, how would you deem your competitive situation when it comes to energy in that division? I guess, in paper, it's clear the Swedish and the Nordic producers are gaining from lower energy costs compared to continental European producers of paper. How is it in paperboard? Is it the same situation or is it so that the key competitors are also self-sufficient when it comes to energy?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

In paperboard, in the segments of the market where we operate, the upper parts, most of our competitors are located in the Nordics. They are not as exposed to the continental producers. We have a very strong energy situation. There are some other mills that have the same, but in the Nordics also, there are mills that are dependent on buying electricity in the Nordic market. When it comes to the lower segments of the market, almost all producers are on the continent, and they have as difficult as they have on the paper side on sourcing energy, and their cost situation has worsened quite a bit.

It's causing this price increase coming from below, from the lower grades.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Even in the UK, at the Workington mill, we also are self-sufficient in energy. A very strong position.

Robin Santavirta
Equity Analyst, Carnegie

Are these sort of lower or smaller producers in Europe sort of your competitors when you price them? What I'm sort of after is whether this paperboard business you have is, at the moment, the pricing is driven by supply and demand, or whether it's driven by energy pricing in Europe.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

I would say where we operate, it's supply-demand driven. The lower grades are struggling and pushing up their prices, of course, giving support to the price increases for the higher grades as well. It's a combination.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

If you look at white-lined chipboard, it's definitely cost-driven.

Robin Santavirta
Equity Analyst, Carnegie

Yeah. I understand. Thanks. The second question I have is related to wood products. How much of your production do you export out of Sweden? What are those markets? Related to that, I understand the Russian sawn timber is no longer sort of imported to Europe. Do you meet Russian sawn timber in your export markets?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Roughly, 40% of our sales is in Scandinavia. It has increased after we acquired Martinsons. Our major export markets are the U.K., North Africa, Middle East, and the U.S. In North Africa and Middle East, those selected markets of those are big on Russian wood.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

At least historically.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Yeah.

Robin Santavirta
Equity Analyst, Carnegie

What is the demand situation in, say, Middle East and northern part of Africa at the moment?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

That's a classic trading market. They are traders and they are definitely looking at the situation right now to see where the price will end up.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Robin, remember also when it comes to Russia, we could discuss Russia for hours, but could also be lack of spare parts when it comes to the forest industry that will determine how much you can actually produce in the sawmills, et cetera. It's a lot of uncertainty, which is difficult to assess exactly how it will play out.

Robin Santavirta
Equity Analyst, Carnegie

I agree. Final one on this and just, I understand it's a complicated situation, but I guess sort of it's clear now, producers start to have quite big inventories and the prices are declining. Would you guys sort of as the best guess that this 20%-30% price decline sort of set to happen now in Q3? Is that sort of where it all ends? It looks quite grim, related to energy, to say the least, when it comes to consumption of sawn timber. Pitch dark, I would say, going into next year.

Why would not prices decline from these exceptionally high levels in Q3 that you still have, if the Russians sort of still can export to the key export market there is in the world? That is sort of something I struggle to understand. Why wouldn't we go down to quite low levels? Or is it something that-

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

The answer.

Robin Santavirta
Equity Analyst, Carnegie

...that I miss?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

It's always difficult to predict where a market, especially the wood products market, are when it's in decline. Everybody's waiting to see what will happen. Russian volumes from our main markets were there to a very large extent up until June. After the sanctions hit early July, they're gone. We don't really see them there. It was quite significant volumes that helped to increase stock levels in Europe in the second quarter. Those stocks have to be consumed before this market stabilizes. How long that will take is difficult to say.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

It's not easy.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

As Henrik alluded to, sort of a lot of the big exporting nations struggled with wood supply, and Russia.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Out right now.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Out.

Robin Santavirta
Equity Analyst, Carnegie

I understand. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Martin Melbye from ABG. Please go ahead.

Martin Melbye
Research analyst, ABG

Good morning. Just to get a bit more clarity on Q3 here. How much of the list prices did you actually catch in Q2 on paper and paperboard? How much is set to be renegotiated on a new level in Q3?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

I can start with paperboard. We will have some positive price impact. We captured all the price increases during Q2 quickly, but the prices were lifted during Q2, so there is some positive pricing going into third quarter. Costs will be increasing as well in the third quarter, but we'll see positive pricing. On paper-

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Paper.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Henrik.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Again, I don't think it will be totally determined by us. It will be, the cost situation for continental producers.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

We will see where it's going.

Martin Melbye
Research analyst, ABG

Okay. Two more questions. How is your electricity price hedged on the renewable energy segment per se? The next is on volumes for the sawmills in Q3. Is that holding up or is it going down with pricing?

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Hedging on the renewable energy, we stopped hedging our renewable energy business during later part of last year. From time to time, we do some hedges, but the base position is to be unhedged on renewable energy. The deliveries on wood products, maybe you can look at last year what happened to deliveries when prices went down, everybody is a wait and see mood and to see where the pricing starts to stabilize.

Martin Melbye
Research analyst, ABG

Yes, that's what I thought. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Cole Hathorn from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Mr. Hathorn, your line is open. We cannot hear you.

Cole Hathorn
SVP, Equity Research, Jefferies

Morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just for follow-up on wood products. Is there any guidance you can give on delivery expectations into the third quarter? You know, we've heard some of the Austrian and Central Eastern European sawmills are taking some downtime, and I'm just wondering how deliveries are progressing for you for the third quarter. Following on that, I mean, the lower production of wood products is driving up pulpwood costs or kind of wood costs to producers in Continental and Central Europe. I'm just wondering, is there a further impact on wood cost to the market given that, you know, potentially the Nordic producers are pulling back on sawmill production and it's driving up wood cost to various companies? Just your thoughts on that. Thank you.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Let's start with deliveries. You should remember that July is a vacation month in Sweden, where the sawmills do take production time naturally and volumes per definition go down in the third quarter. As I mentioned, buyers are waiting. When prices are going down, buyers are not ordering more than they have to. Deliveries will be lower than normal in this part of the pricing cycle.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Even if we have a good cost position, sure, we keep an eye on our inventory levels.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

On wood costs, they are on the rise. You have several factors affecting that. You have Russia that was a big exporter into especially Finland of pulpwood. You have UPM that has started up production consuming more. We see an increasing demand for burning wood for energy purposes. It's cheaper than burning gas and so we see a tighter market generally, and we see pulpwood prices going up as we have communicated earlier as well.

Operator

For any further questions, please press star and one. There are no more questions at this time. Sorry, we have a last-minute registration from Harri Taittonen from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Harri Taittonen
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Yeah, thanks for the last-minute inclusion. Maybe on the question on the sort of share buybacks and the authorization for 10% and what sort of thinking on that now after sort of strong result but with uncertain outlook.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Now-

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Oh.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

We always have an authorization from the AGM. The board has not so far chosen to activate that authorization. It's quite unusual that we do it, so.

Henrik Sjölund
President and CEO, Holmen

Happened once lately.

Harri Taittonen
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Yeah, fair enough. Just on the sort of forest transaction prices, I know that the market usually gets sort of more active towards the end of the year and all that. With the rising interest rates, I mean, are you picking up signals on the actual transaction value development. How that might be sort of. What does it look like for now.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

We have not picked up any signals of a slowdown, but it's a market that develops over time.

Harri Taittonen
Equity Research Analyst, Nordea

Yeah. Okay. Many thanks.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

All right. Was that the last question?

Operator

Yes, sir.

Anders Jernhall
EVP and CFO, Holmen

Okay. Thank you very much for taking your time and interesting questions. Even though there are a bit of a question mark exactly where the market is going, I think we are in a very strong position when it comes to both supply of sawlogs, pulpwood, favorable energy situation, so we will be able to handle this in a very good way, I'm quite sure. Thank you very much. See you soon.

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