Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the interim report presentation for the Holmen Group. It's me, Henrik, and it's Stefan, and we will take you through the presentation. Once we've finalized, we are happy to take any questions you might have. Stefan, let's start.
Yep.
Second quarter, we were able to deliver a bit over SEK 800 million, which I think is a decent result given the situation, especially when it comes to consumer products, which we will come into a bit later. We also, if you look at only our industry, which is board and paper and our wood products, the industry where we always measure return on capital employed, we were able to deliver 15% in the second quarter. If you look at the last 12 months, we have an average of 17%. Over the last 10 years, even a little bit more. Our financial position is strong. We have also distributed $ 2.8 billion to our shareholders during the first half of the year through dividend and buybacks. Let's change subject totally and go into the forest or more the wood market in Sweden.
We have talked about increasing log costs, both saw logs and pulp wood for many quarters, I think now it's time to say that things are changing. In the second quarter, especially saw log prices continue to go up. Remember, when we buy or what we buy today and last week, we will consume that in roughly half a year or even a little bit more. As I said, saw log prices continue to go up, especially in Southern Sweden. Also the difference now between Southern Sweden and northern parts of Sweden when it comes to saw logs, we have never had such a big price difference. Pulpwood leveling off in the second quarter, and as we speak right now, there is some price pressure on pulpwood. That's quite clear, but we haven't seen it yet.
The same there, what we buy today, we will make use of it in our industry in roughly half a year. Stefan?
Yeah, the result for the Forest division was SEK 519 million during the second quarter. That is an increase by some SEK 30 million compared to the first quarter this year due to higher harvesting on our own forest. Despite this higher harvesting in Q2, we have still harvested less during the first six months of this year compared to last year and also compared to our long-term harvesting plan. That is all due to timing issues. That means we will increase our harvest in the second half of this year compared to the first.
Thank you. Let's continue with renewable energy. A very strange situation in the second quarter. If we look at the energy market in Europe as such, we say that we have a seasonal effect. What do we mean by that? When there is a lot of sun in the system, especially in Germany, the price comes down. That we see this year, and we also see that it has an effect on south of Sweden. In our case, we use SC3 as the reference. That has had quite a big effect, but it hasn't had any effect at all on the northern prices. They are simply historically low. We have to go back to the 2021 quarter. We had prices as low as in the second quarter. Now the price was EUR 10 per MW.
Obviously, a lot of electricity was simply locked in the northern parts of Sweden during the second quarter. A lot of water in the system, as we said, more than what we usually have, but there are also other effects with cables, flow-based, etc. Anyway, when we make use of our hydropower, we do get the premium, but Stefan, when the premium is on EUR 10, it doesn't help very much.
It does not, Henrik. The energy division is loss-making during the second quarter due to the very low prices that Henrik just explained. I can also add that when we compare the result with the first quarter this year, we have seasonally lower production in Q2 in line with the normal seasonal pattern.
Let's continue with wood products. Let's start with the demand side. In general, right now, there is a weak market. The big three markets we have, the United States, China, and Europe, we see that demand is a bit slow. I guess consumer confidence is not really there. We take the United States just as a reminder. Roughly 100 million cubic meters are consumed in the U.S., and 20 of them come from Canada and roughly five from Europe, as we also have some uncertainty about tariffs going forward. In China, we see there that the import of wood products is coming down quite a lot. Of course, the market, as such, as I said, is weak. Also, the supply side of the market has changed. Restrictions in terms of its scarcity of logs in the world in general.
If you look at Canada, especially British Columbia, production has come down a lot. It's bark beetle infestation, forest fires, and also political decisions that make the production in Western Canada go down. We take Germany as an example as well. During the years when we had a lot of bark beetle infestation and the Germans had to take out a lot of logs from the forest, production went up. We can see now that those days are a bit over and also quite expensive wood. Together with other restrictions, also here, bark beetles, etc., makes production come down. Demand is not very healthy, but supply is restricted as well, which meant that prices actually went up some 10% in the second quarter. Where we are right now, we feel that there is price pressure on the wood products in general, and prices will come down during the third quarter.
The question is how much. Stefan, prices up in the second quarter. Did it help?
It did not, unfortunately. We have an operating profit of SEK 20 million in the second quarter. As Henrik said, we had price increases of 10%, but that was completely offset by higher wood costs during the quarter.
to remind ourselves, there is a big difference between the log costs in the south of Sweden and the northern parts of Sweden, bigger than ever. Let's change and switch to board and paper. Starting with board, our customers, you can see that demand is a little bit better than 2023, but it's not back to where we were before the pandemic or not even close, actually. Consumers are a bit waiting, and the confidence is obviously not really there. In this market, we also have some new capacity and some uncertainty when it comes to tariffs, who will deliver to the U.S., et cetera. Right now, what we deliver in terms of board, we have the 15% tariff we have to take care of when we deliver into the U.S. There are also some not direct, but indirect effects. Not big, but they are there.
Prices are stable during the second quarter. In our case, our order book is, I would say, rather healthy. We are not running absolutely full. We do take some market-related downtime, also depending on the fact that actually our production is going a bit better, so we can produce a bit more. We can't sell everything, but most of it, so the position is quite good. When it comes to paper, you know about the situation in the industry. Very low utilization ratios. I'd say nobody's running totally full. We have to expect demand to come down a little bit over the years, but you can see moving 12 versus last year, it's no drastic change so far this year. Prices are also more or less stable. There is some price pressure sometimes, but no big things.
In our case, we run with a higher utilization rate than the industry average. The industry average today starts with a seven or low eight, so 75%, 80%. We run roughly at 80%, 85%. To be honest, running at 80%, 85% suits us rather well because it also gives us a possibility to act on a volatile electricity price. Stefan, that has some impact also on our result.
It has. First, I need to comment on the maintenance shutdown that we had in the Workington mill in Q2, which affected the result in Q2 by some SEK 150 million. We also had slightly lower delivery and production in Q2 compared to Q1. The positive side, as Henrik mentioned, is that we've been able to run our paper mills in a really efficient way in a volatile electricity market. That meant that we have lowered our energy costs by approximately SEK 250 million-SEK 300 million during the second quarter compared to a normal level.
Thank you. That's about that. It took us 10 minutes. It's not so bad, huh? We are happy to take any questions you might have. Please.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and then one on their telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and then two. Anyone who has a question may press star one at this time. Our first question comes from Larsson, Linus, SEB. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much and very good morning to everyone. Maybe following up on what you just said about board and paper and the second quarter benefit that you saw from your optimization in terms of energy efficiency. I think you said SEK 250 million -SEK 300 million. What are you seeing in the third and fourth quarter in terms of such opportunities?
It's hard to predict, Linus. What we see in the market today is that nothing has changed compared to the first and the second quarter. How well we will be able to execute on this in the same way as in the second quarter is hard to predict. The market behaves pretty much in the same way as it has done the last six months. I think it's the best answer I can give you.
Would you say that, during the colder part of the year, you actually have better opportunities and higher volatility compared to what a second quarter typically looks like?
No, I wouldn't say that. The volatility that we speak about is the intraday volatility. The price is set every hour or every quarter of an hour intraday, and that is the volatility that we can make use of. It's not the big swings between weeks or months or so. It's rather short-term volatility.
Within the same day.
Within the same day.
Sure. Thanks. Maybe jumping to forest and looking just at your harvesting, both in the first and the second quarter, actually, it's down year on year, which has been a drag on earnings, all else being equal. What are you seeing for the remainder of the year and for the full year in terms of harvesting levels?
As I said, we have had lower harvesting than normal during the first part of the year. We believe that we will increase harvest during the second part of the year so that we will have approximately the same harvesting level as we've seen the last couple of years.
Great. I missed that. Thanks for repeating that. If I didn't hear that, probably the first time you said it. Maybe just to finish off on wood products, going into the third quarter, you already said that you're expecting lower prices. If you could elaborate a bit on that. Are you seeing a full reverse of the price increases that you saw in the second quarter? Also, are you expecting further cost increases sequentially in the third quarter from higher saw log costs? If so, to what degree?
If you take the saw log cost, first of all, yes, what we buy today is a bit higher than our average, what we have that we will consume during the next half year. That's for the sawmills down south in southern parts of Sweden. We also decided to take down production capacity at both Bråviken and most probably also the Linghem sawmill. I think we said that in the last report. When it comes to prices, we can just say that normally during the springtime, there is a tick up in price. That happened this year as well. The market is not really there to support the prices we have. Right now, there is pressure. How far it will go, I can't really say. If you look at the future prices in the U.S., they are up one week and down the next week.
Right now, it's a bit up, but very difficult to predict. Also, together with the tariffs, it makes it even more difficult to predict. That wasn't much of help, I hear myself saying, but.
No, that's fair enough. Thanks for trying. Thanks.
Our next question comes from Kjellberg, Lars, Stifel. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I just wanted to continue a bit on first with wood cost. You said, Henrik, that there were some pressures coming through in the pulpwood market, but I've yet to see it. When should we expect to see market prices falling, and what sort of pressure are we talking about? I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on the competitive environment in the global market for consumer board. Appreciating you have very niche, high-quality grade, it feels as if commodity paperboard in general is under some pressure. Some of your peers have highlighted Asia as a real hotspot. If you can talk us through what you're seeing in your Asian exports and that competitive pressure, especially with the European excess supply that we're seeing, and now with tariffs coming in, if repatriation of overseas tons is already starting to become an issue.
The last question, we haven't seen that yet. Maybe also in our segment, we are, if not protected, at least it's a bit different. We don't have a lot of deliveries to Asia that we do with Asian customers. I do agree that it's very difficult to take spot orders in Asia today, even with the quality we have. The big volumes we have going to Asia, that's normally done with European or North American customers. You are right. There is some overcapacity in the market. It's been overcapacity in Asia for quite a long time. Recent investments also in Europe, for example, Stora Enso and not too long ago also Metsä Board. We will see what happens. There is some uncertainty now regarding how much can be sold into the U.S. and what tariffs will it be.
I feel quite, I think our position is really good when it comes to doing it in a good way in such a difficult market given the segment we are in and the customers we have. To grow and take new customers, spot orders, et cetera, difficult and also not very good prices. Did I miss any of your questions? [crosstalk] The pressure.
For sure, something I didn't mention before when we talked about pulpwood is that Russia, of course, had an influence on pulpwood and supply of pulpwood into our region before, and that's now not there. The same when it comes to saw logs. Of course, in total, Russian sawmills are not contributing to the supply. Going back to pulpwood, what we see is that customers that we have buying pulpwood from us are still keen on having the pulpwood, but we also see that the industry is not running full. To be honest, there is enough pulpwood in the market in Sweden today. We see price pressure. How far it will go and how long it will take is difficult to say. The same for us as for most of the customers or our competitors as well. It takes a while.
What we buy today, remember again, we consume it in roughly half a year's time.
I understood. Final question for me is, you know, your portfolio when it comes to the paper side seemed to be performing better. It tends to do that. I've also seen some emerging pricing pressure on publication paper in general. Are you seeing the same in your more niche grades?
It's again the same that the business we have ongoing and the customers we have, especially in some niches, is more stable, but we are also affected by what's happening in general in the market. To take spot orders also in publication paper is very difficult today. When we say that we run 80%, 85%, we would have liked to be at 90%, but that's difficult to go from, let's say, 85%- 90%. It suits us also when it comes to taking advantage of a volatile electricity market.
Understood. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Cole Hathorn, Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I'd just like to follow up on the wood products market. I'd like to understand how you see the ability to manage your costs, employees, when the market's a bit softer and when the saw logs between Southern Sweden and Northern Sweden are elevated. Just how you're managing the costs in a challenging environment. I'd also like your views on how the higher duties on Canada are potentially impacting the U.S. market and how you play in that space. How do you see the outlook there into the U.S. for single-family homes and how the Canadian import tariffs might impact the U.S. market? Thank you.
Okay. Starting with what we can do in order to take down cost. I said before that we have already taken down production capacity at our Bråviken and the big sawmill in south of Sweden. To be honest, it's not very difficult. It's possible it takes two or three months, and then you have taken out most of the costs you have. It's salary cost mainly. That's doable. What we do in order to understand which strategy to go for is that we have always to make a forecast for what wood products price will we have in six to eight months' time from now when we buy the saw logs in the forest. That's what we need to understand. As I said before, we see some price pressure, and that's why we also see that saw logs are extremely expensive in south of Sweden.
We do take down production a bit and wait and see. When it comes to the U.S., nobody knows exactly what will happen to the tariffs. We have 5% roughly of our production going into the U.S. right now. We take measures in order to be able to stop if it's not possible to continue to deliver. As I said before, you are absolutely right. Canada is extremely important to understand what's going to happen between Canadian wood products going into the U.S. Will it be more Canadian export or will it be Europe having the upper hand? That comes down to the tariffs finally. That we don't know yet. We have to sort out also these 2-3-2 tariffs, especially for Canada, before we know the situation, I think. You can also see it in the future prices. Sorry.
Henrik, and then maybe just as a follow-up on, you know, Russia, Ukraine, obviously the U.S. president's meeting today. I'm just wondering if you've got any thoughts there if there was a peace deal, how might a resolution impact any of your markets? Just some speculative thoughts if you could give any. Thank you.
I think if there will be peace, given both saw log prices and pulpwood prices we see in Sweden today or Sweden, Finland, Norway in our region, for sure there will be wood coming into our system somehow and put pressure on prices. We haven't seen peace yet.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Perry, James, Citi. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for the presentation. I'd just like to ask about paperboard again. You said demand is still below pre-pandemic levels. What are you actually hearing from customers on the ground? Do you have a sense as to whether there's any inventory build or even destocking or changing order patterns at the moment? Should we really see these figures reflecting underlying demand today?
2023, huge destocking. That was not the real consumption that we see in the statistics for 2023. I don't think there is any of that now. When you talk to customers, they're always optimistic, of course. The reality is that we are not back yet, and the consumer confidence in general is not really that great. I think we need the overall economic cycle to improve a bit to make things look better. We are happy with what we have. We are doing well in this market, but it's a challenging market. There is a lot of uncertainty, obviously, because quite a lot of quite big volumes were thought about being able to sell, being sold into the U.S. We don't know now. It's not mainly us, but our competitors.
Okay, thank you.
Our next question comes from Lindström, Oskar, Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Two sets of questions from me. One is, or the first one is on the board segment. Have any of the recent tariff deals or changes impacted your markets, or do you expect them to impact your markets? That's my first question.
Not yet.
To be honest.
Do you, yeah.
It is too early to make a decision here.
I think it's too early to say what the final outcome will be. We have the 15% now that we know when we sell into the U.S., and there are ongoing discussions who should pay the 15%. It's not finalized.
I realize what your position is. My second question is, yeah, let's move on. My second question is on forest land book valuation. First off, have you seen any, how has the forest land transaction market developed in the first half of the year as far as you can see it? I realize it's lower activity during the first half of the year compared to the second, but still, the summer should be a fairly active season. What's your impression?
Yeah, as you say, Oskar, it's very hard to draw any conclusions on the first half year's statistics. The samples are just too small to draw any conclusions. We don't see any major shifts so far in the price level compared to last year. It's quite early to say, and as you say, not that many transactions being done in the first half year.
Thank you. I've been thinking around sort of methodology for setting the book value of the forest lands. As far as I could read the accounting recommendations, the proxy or the first proxy should be if there's any listed forest land that you can compare that compares to your forest land. There isn't in Sweden, so that's the reason why you look at comparable transactions. If we were to have a listed forest land, you know, pure forest land company in Sweden, would the valuation of that company be the proxy that you would use for your book valuation?
I think you need to consider the differences in the characteristics of different forest properties. We don't value the 1.1 million hectares of productive forest land that we have. We rather value each and every one of the 4,000 properties that we have. Doing that by a proxy from a listed company, I think, would be quite tricky. That's why we use the methodology that we have today and will probably use going forward as well due to the different characteristics of the forest.
All right. Thank you. Those were my questions.
Thanks, Oskar.
Our next question comes from [Yannis Mazzawi], Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Thank you very much for the presentation. Just a few questions left from my side. The first one, going back to the topic of pulpwood costs, given that you have, as you mentioned, six months' visibility on what fits into your industries, could you provide us an indication on what sort of pulpwood cost development you expect for Q3 and Q4? Second question, also, could you quantify the reduction in wood products output you expect for the balance of the year, given the measures you are taking at this point? Third question on the buyback, where you bought back 1.8 million shares. Out of the 3 million shares, you have decided to repurchase through to the next AGM. My understanding is that the authorization could be up to 10% of the shares. Is there potential for the board to scale up the current buyback?
If so, would that be taken as an ad hoc decision? Thank you.
Should we start with the last question on share buybacks? We have a mandate from the Board to buy back 3 million shares. We have so far executed on 1.8 million of those. How we will behave going forward, we will see how things develop during the third quarter. We need to come back to that one when we present the Q3 report, I would say. Theoretically, the Board can make another decision to increase share buybacks. That's totally correct. I think you had a first question about wood product volumes in Q2 and Q3, Q4. The measures that we're taking now in the southern part of Sweden will approximately take down production volumes by some 50,000 cubic meters- 75,000 cubic meters on an annual basis from the beginning of September or during the autumn. It will gradually be taken down during the autumn.
Regarding the price of pulpwood, what we foresee going forward.
We don't give any estimate on that one. As Henrik mentioned, what we consume during the next half year is based on what we actually acquired the first half year. Exactly.
More or less so.
More or less.
There are no drastic changes in the pulpwood prices right now, but there is some pressure.
Thank you for that. Just one follow-up, if I may, on the operating profit split between board and paper. Could you give us a rough indication for Q2 and the first half of the year?
It is not fair since we had the maintenance shutdown in Workington during the second quarter. Most of the profit from board and paper within the second quarter was from the paper division due to this maintenance shutdown.
Which we have every second year at Workington.
Exactly. I can also take the opportunity to remind you that we will have a maintenance shutdown in the Iggesund mill in the third quarter this year. That's an annual shutdown.
Yes. Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Robin Santavirta of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. DNB Carnegie. Regarding the board and paper segment, could you explain this SEK 250 million -SEK 300 million decline in energy costs in the quarter? It seems like a very big number, especially as I understand you have hedged a large part of the energy consumption in that segment. Is it more than 80%? How do you utilize in practice this intraday volatility to get such gains? I thought you had previously said that you're not offering secured power in the daily balance in market, which to me would explain this kind of setup. I think we have spoken about that before. A bit more detail on that, thanks.
What we do is that we take opportunity of the intraday volatility in the electricity market and not on the spot market, which is a daily traded market. It's the short-term volatility in the market that makes it possible for us to create this kind of result. Also, the whole setup of the electricity market as such suits us quite well with the production capacity that we have and the machines that we have. We're very flexible on how to run the production.
The intradays obviously are exceptionally large. How a lot of industrial companies operate is that if they have secured power and the price intraday is exceptionally high and they can run down their production, they basically sell those contracts in the intraday market at prices up to EUR 5,000 per MW h. Is that not what you do?
Partly so to say. It's a really complex area to explain, but it is the volatility within the day that makes us able to shut down production when needed and increase when needed, depending on the actual electricity price for the moment.
Maybe a separate call later on.
Maybe.
It could be huge because that number is just quite big, and it's quite difficult obviously for us to do. We will probably try to estimate the future as well. The second question I have is regarding pulpwood pricing. I was just wondering, with this potential piece, who knows whether it will come or not. I'm a Finn. We do not trust Ryzen, so who knows? I was just wondering, do you believe that there's a bit of a speculative component in the current pulpwood pricing in Scandinavia? Meaning that if I look around, I can see a lot of industrial production being not running at the moment. I guess capacity utilization, if you take Finland and Sweden together in paper, paperboard, pallet, maybe even saw milling, is clearly lower than pre-war.
I guess we have harvesting now also increasing, but still, I can see in H2, I understand it's now maybe turning, but in H1, pulpwood pricing has simply continued to increase. I was wondering, because it will take a long time before Russian wood raw material comes into the Baltics or then even Finland and Sweden at a later stage, could there be a setup where simply a piece would be sort of as an information value for the pulpwood market, a negative, and only that information could trigger lower prices? Could that happen in your view?
I agree with most of what you say, Robin, about the market and the situation. I think many consumers of pulpwood are still a bit scared of not having enough wood from the days when it was really fierce competition for the pulpwood. Maybe that makes it go a bit slower than what it should. There is enough pulpwood available right now. You are absolutely right. If it's speculation or not, I don't know more than you do, I think.
Let's see what happens. Thank you very much.
Yeah, thanks.
Our next question comes from Melbye, Martin, ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Could you expand upon why the harvesting from the own forest is running 15% below last year? Those prices are very good to harvest your own forest, I guess.
It is mostly operational reasons where we have the harvesting resources located in areas in the beginning of the year at plots where we didn't have much own forest, rather harvesting rights. It is more of an operational efficiency issue rather than anything else. That is also why we will increase harvest in the second half of 2025.
On our own land.
On our own land, exactly.
Okay, there's nothing wrong with the forest plan as such.
No, no.
It doesn't need to be adjusted to the real world.
Just operational.
Your observation is correct.
Sounds good. Last question from me. I see that RISI is starting to quote folding boxboard prices down. Is that realistic for you in the second half or is it more flat prices?
Flat so far.
Excellent. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Mittal, Pallav, Barclays.
Hi, good morning. Pallav Mittal from Barclays. I have three questions. Firstly, on the renewable energy segment, we are now seeing that the energy prices have remained low for quite some time. Are there any changes to your plans on the wind power expansion projects that you have?
Yes, no more windmills. You're absolutely right. The situation up in the north of Sweden, when it comes to the market and how it works and what the electricity price will be in one year's time, it's very difficult to make a forecast, to be honest. With those prices, nothing will, no new projects will come on stream. I can't imagine. We will finish what we have, of course, and make the best use of it. As long as it is like it is now, we will not build any new wind farms.
Sure. Secondly, if you could, and I know you've already spoken about this, can you help us understand what proportion of your production on the board side of things is for exports to the U.S.? With existing tariffs of 15%, how have your order books been impacted?
We only have like 5% going into the U.S. That has not changed, and we don't have any plans to change it yet, at least. Of course, we are trying to push through the cost, the extra cost we have to make somebody else take it. I think everyone is doing the same right now. It's like an extra tax. Somebody has to pay. The idea is it should be us, but we think it should be someone else.
Sure. Lastly, just a clarification. You had highlighted a SEK 100 million benefit in your board and paper EBITDA from the lower energy cost in Q1, and you have benefited in Q2 as well. Can you quantify that benefit that you see in Q2? Should we expect that to continue in Q3 and Q4?
The effect in Q2 was approximately SEK 250 million- SEK 300 million, lower than normal levels. It's hard to predict how things will develop during the second part of the year. So far, we see that the market behaves in the same way at this moment as it has been done during the first half of the year. How we will be able to execute is hard to say, but the rationale and the market environment as such is the same as when we earn those money.
Just if I could follow up on this, how does this SEK 250 million- SEK 300 million lower than normal level compare to the SEK 100 million benefit in Q1? I'm just trying to understand the difference between Q1 and Q2 benefit.
Yeah, the benefit in Q1 was SEK 100 million lower than normal. Q2, SEK 250 million-SEK 300 million lower than normal.
Okay, thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star followed by one. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. This concludes today's Q&A session. I would now let the journal conference back over to Henrik Sjölund, President and CEO, for closing remarks.
Thank you very much. Good questions, good discussion, and for taking the time to discuss with us. Look forward to seeing you soon again. Bye-bye.