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Earnings Call: Q2 2024

Jul 19, 2024

Operator

Welcome to the Humana Q2 2024 report presentation. For the first part of the presentation, participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing pound key five on their telephone keypad. If you are listening to the presentation via webcast, you can ask written questions using the form below. Now, I will hand the conference over to speakers, CEO Johanna Rastad, and CFO, Fredrik Larsson. Please go ahead.

Ewelina Pettersson
Head of IR, Humana

Good morning. Welcome to Humana's Q2 2024 presentation. My name is Ewelina Pettersson. I'm the Head of IR at Humana. With me today, I have Johanna Rastad, our CEO, and Fredrik Larsson, our CFO. Over to you, Johanna.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Thank you, Ewelina, and good morning to all listeners. We continue with a high pace of change also in the second quarter, and at the same time improving our existing business performance substantially. The adjusted operating profit increased by 40%, reaching SEK 107 million, up from SEK 77 million last year. This is primarily due to the improvements in, in elderly care, where the reinforced change program we initiated about a year ago, has continued to give positive effects, but also due to the activities in personal assistance, targeting increased efficiency. In elderly care, the improvements in occupancy, as well as reduced staff turnover and sick leave in the segment, is both satisfying and also promising for the future. In Finland, we execute on our specialization strategy and sign an agreement to divest 21 elderly care units to an enterprise value of EUR 25 million.

The transaction is subject to approval by the Finnish competition authorities, and is expected to be completed during the second half of the year. In the quarter, we also close the transaction of Team Olivia Norway, and integrate the business and accounts from June onwards. The integration is going according to plan. Team Olivia Norway contributes with sales of SEK 88 million and an EBIT of SEK 4 million in the second quarter, and we use existing cash and new share issue to finance the acquisition. After almost six years in Denmark, we decide to exit the country through the sale of our small subsidiary. Denmark is not a focus area for Humana going forward, hence this strategic decision. I want to direct my warm thanks to Lone Hansen and a great team for all these years.

Being on my seventh year in Humana, this will be my final quarterly report, and I've, over the last week, handed over to Nathalie Boulas Nilsson, who takes over the role as President and CEO from this coming Monday. So it's pleasing to see that the performance curve heads upwards, with net revenues improving with 5%. Organic growth reaches 1.3%, just above 5%, excluding personal assistance, which still suffers from the wrongly revoked permit by the authorities in January last year and the subsequent legal process. Adjusted operating profits, as I said, reach SEK 107 million in the quarter, corresponding to a margin of 4.2%, but it's 5.4%, excluding personal assistance.

Now over to Sweden, so the country out first, where we see continued clear performance improvements in elderly care, following the reinforced change program initiated last summer, where occupancy reaches about 92%, which is up another percentage points from Q1, with organic growth of 6%, about 50/50, due to price volume. Both owned managed units and contracts improved profitability in the quarter. After a few quarters with clear improvements in occupancy levels, reduced staff costs and staff turnover, as well as lower sick leave, we now conclude a more formal program. That said, we're far from satisfied, and we'll continue working on improving our operations, our offering to clients, and also payers, as well as improve our efficiency in this coming phase.

We've learned a lot in the process, and it's comforting to know that the Individual and Family, and the Elderly care team are now fully working together, and they can continue striving towards further improvements to secure continued progress in the course to come. Although operating profitability, improving Personal assistance, net customer outflow continues in the quarter, we are working intensely on the so-called net journey, which is to create a positive net client inflow through a number of activities. Simultaneously, the adaptation of overhead costs continues, and we do see effect from that in the quarter. However, as the net client outflow persists, the actual P&L effect is smaller than we would like it to be. A substantial improvement from Q1 is seen in Individual and Family, with occupancy levels—which increase about a percentage points as a total.

Notably, the child and youth segments within with family care leading the way, making the largest improvement from the first quarter, and is now on an operating profitability perspective in line with last year. That said, we still have lower occupancy than in the second quarter of 2023, but significantly higher than in Q1, and continuing to increase also into July. Operating profits in I&F moves sequentially closer to last year for I&F as a whole. Now turning over to Finland, where we have announced in the quarter, taking another step in our specialization journey by signing an agreement to divest elderly care units. Growth continues, however, at a lower speed, with organic growth reaching 4% in the quarter. In June, we pay a one-time salary payment in accordance to our collective agreement, which totals 11 million SEK.

Despite this one-off payment, adjusted profitability increases and reaches SEK 28 million or 5.6%. In Norway, our like-for-like business continues to grow with 12%, while actual operating profits remain stable. The main event in the quarter is, of course, the acquisition of Team Olivia Norway, which in June adds SEK 88 million in turnover and SEK 4 million operating profits. Full quarter consolidation will take place in the third quarter. Focus on the team has, of course, been to prepare for and take the first steps in integration process, and so far, this has proceeded according to plan. It's very pleasing to have welcomed so many confident employees from Team Olivia over the last month. Now over to you, Fredrik, for a summary of the financials.

Fredrik Larsson
CFO, Humana

Thank you, Johanna. Revenues are up 5% compared to last year. Personal assistance has lost SEK 54 million in revenues that have been compensated by the good organic growth in all other businesses. In addition, the acquisition of Team Olivia contributed with SEK 88 million from June 3rd. The adjusted operating profit increased by 40% from SEK 77 million to SEK 107 million compared to last year. This is our highest adjusted operating profit in actual terms ever in a Q2. Both Q2 this year and last year were impacted by non-recurring items. I will elaborate more on those later. The profit increase by SEK 30 million is primarily explained by the recovery in elderly care in Sweden, that contributed SEK 20 million, and personal assistance that contributed with SEK 8 million compared to last year.

In the second quarter, net debt increased with roughly SEK 150 million, where over SEK 260 million is related to the payment for the purchase price for the acquisition of Team Olivia. Our leverage has increased 0.2x during the second quarter to 3.8x. This is primarily due to the acquisition of Team Olivia that increased our leverage with 0.4 times. Excluding the acquisition of Team Olivia, leverage would be 3.4x. The operating cash flow of SEK 172 million in the quarter was even stronger than in Q1. This is explained by our good profit generation. This, there were only minor effects in this quarter from changes in working capital. This is explained by the fact that both Q1 and Q2 ended on non-business days.

During the quarter, we had negative items affecting comparability, reducing our operating profit with SEK 27 million. This amount include SEK 9 million related to IVO revocation of the permit in Humana Assistans and the subsequent claim. Costs related to the acquisition of Team Olivia Norway was included with SEK 9 million, and we had a SEK 10 million for remeasurement of contingent consideration to be paid for the acquisition of Assistans för dig. In 2022, personal assistance acquired Assistans för dig. A major part of the consideration was deferred and based on 2023 multiples. In Q2, the final contingent consideration amount has been established, and the difference of SEK 10 million between the previous estimate and the final contingent consideration amount is recognized as an expense.

This is consistent with previous adjustments of contingent consideration that have been recognized as positive items affecting comparability of, in total, SEK 106 million in previous quarters. Q2 last year included a SEK 12 million positive items affecting comparability, including a positive adjustment on the continued consideration of SEK 42 million, offset by costs linked to IVO revoked permit of SEK 29 million. And finally, this quarter is compared to last year, partly impacted by Easter. We have estimated Easter had a positive impact on EBIT with some SEK 20 million due to lower personnel costs. Easter effect is, of course, neutral on the half year period. Now, some final words from you, Johanna.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Thank you, Fredrik. Well, at Humana, mirroring society, we have also in this quarter seen an increase in requests for placements of higher complexity. Individuals with substantial care and treatment needs. Puts pressure on employees' ability to offer solution that will enable our clients to move to a better position in life. So the care sector needs to improve its ability to measure output of treatment and over time, also be rewarded for the actual outcome of our treatment. In the quarter, 42% of concluded treatments in Sweden has led to a lower level of care, while 58% of clients in all residential care homes reached their targets in their care plan. It is astonishing that Humana still only can compare to itself when it comes to these numbers.

I really wish this will change over time, and more companies and public institutions will start to deliver social outcomes to bring up the debate. And why do we do this? To secure young individuals, such as Frans, to get a better life. A Swedish client portrayed over time. A 15-year-old that comes into our care with a criminal background, with drug abuse and numerous failures behind him, totally swamped up into a criminal environment. Frans has seen abuse, violence, carried weapons, seen people become murdered and become murderers. Frans is lucky enough to understand that he wants another life for himself. That's why he comes to, into Humana's care. We can offer a solution for Frans, the B12 treatment program, aimed at getting children and adolescents into a place in life without drugs and criminality.

Throughout the by Humana developed program, Frans can get control of his own impulses, identify and modify his way of thinking, as well as give him a proper chance to choose a long-term sustainable behavior in risky situations. In short, give him his life back. And that's why we exist, that's why we strive towards measuring output in care, because at Humana, we do care. So now over to what happens next. Personal assistance is of utmost focus for us, mainly to get the net positive client inflow, but also to adapt the cost base according to new volumes. The solid occupancy development in I&F during the quarter builds were promising profit momentum in I&F also in the coming quarter. The turnaround achieved in elderly care is pleasing. However, we do need to continue taking steps to further improve the business.

For Norway, integration of Team Olivia is absolutely key, of course, to realize the outlined synergies. And our specialization strategy continues, and we will also continue to develop social outcome measurement. This is the only way for us to properly describe how important our work is. And with that, we open up for questions.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key six on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Kristofer Liljeberg from Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Yeah, hi. Good quarter, and good luck to you, Johanna, in your new, yeah, in the future. I have three questions. First of all, Finland earnings seems surprisingly good when we adjust for this one-off salary payment. So I just wonder how much of this is driven by the segment that will be divested, and how much of this is what will remains with Humana, if that's possible to comment on? Secondly, I'm just interested to get some more details about the occupancy development in Swedish social care. You talked about an improvement here, so particularly interesting to hear how the end of the quarter is and the outlook for the fourth quarter.

And then if you could comment a little bit more about the client outflow in personal assistance and when you think this will start to even out? Thank you.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Well, thanks a lot, Kristofer. I'll start with your number one in Finland. No, you are absolutely right, it is a good quarter, and primarily that comes from child welfare services, which is an area that we will continue to have. Actually, the performance in the sort of units that will be divested is sort of approximately what we have described in the press release previously. So no major changes there. And I think if we're sort of going forward, child welfare service, you know, we're approaching to be the largest provider of that, so we will have a dominating position in child welfare services that will sort of continue.

And then, of course, there are also other segments, particularly the open care service, that can still have sort of room for improvements, and that it has been more challenging than in child welfare. But, you know, overall, we are pleased with the development in Finland, and there is no clear sign that should change in any way. So moving to your second question, occupancy in I&F, and that is really something that we've had our eyes on, because it's when that goes well, it sort of carries a lot of the performance for the group. And I&F as a whole has shown an improvement in the quarter of about 1 percentage point.

But to really understand and grasp the actual dynamic, we have to come a bit further, so dig deeper down into INF. I think that the largest contributor to bridge the gap that we've seen in performance on the bottom line has been the young segment. And that's, they've had a really good development, so during the quarter, ending the quarter in a positive note. So going from 79% in the beginning of the quarter, up to 82+% over the quarter. And, you know, without promising too much, I think the seasonality effects in the young segment, generally, as it tends to drop in June, and we haven't seen that drop yet, which is good.

So can we sort of continue, maybe not upwards, but at least maintain this, throughout the summer, we should be, well off. So that's for the young segment. When you look at [crosstalk].

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Sorry, did you say, just, did you say 82% end of the quarter?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Yeah.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Okay.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

So that's it, which is, you know, I'm not saying that that should continue the whole sort of third quarter, but that, those levels in June is good to have.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Could I ask, because last fourth quarter, the drop during the summer was larger than normal?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Yeah.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Is that the case?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Yeah.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Yeah.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

That was the case.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Okay.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

It's actually quite, I mean, it's more common that we see a drop in June when the schools close, but we haven't seen that drop, this year. So that's-- and it might be that it's a bit later, but I think the challenge for last year was that it dropped, and it didn't sort of come back, properly. But now we haven't seen that type of drop in June, which we generally do. And it is sort of carried a lot by both family care and the HVB segment. So it is overall positive, you know, when we, when we sort of end the second quarter on these levels. And then for the adult segment, it's really no major change from the first quarter.

So they sort of maintained occupancy levels and maintained performance. And I would say the gap now versus last year is sort of fairly evenly spread out, but it comes a bit from the healthcare segment. So the large carrier of the results, the young and the adult segment are sort of performing well. So I think that's, you know, it's a promising road ahead for Individual and Family, we believe. And then it's the sort of client outflow in personal assistance, which, of course, have been in the quarter, you know, it's not where we want it to be.

But I think what's the, you know, there will be at some point in time, this will, as you also mentioned, sort of level out. We are doing a large sort of change program in personal assistance, sort of both working on the net client inflow, as well as adjusting the overhead costs, sort of, according to new volumes. So it is very much a balance. And I think, what we have seen in this quarter is that, we have relatively lower inflow than we saw in Q1. But we have also had to turn down a few clients due to, you know, insights and sort of quality aspects, a bit higher turn down rate than we generally have.

So we still have sort of requests; the demand for coming into us is sort of remains stable. We also have mapped. We map all our clients and sort of map out risk clients or so on. So I think we have a fairly good idea of sort of the risks in a continued net outflow. And I think it's hard to tell. It will depend on how much clients we can get in over the coming quarters, but somewhere sort of towards the year end, maybe in the beginning of Q1, we should be able to see a positive net client inflow. At least we're working towards that. And I think that, of course, will change the whole game for personal assistance.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Is it fair to say that you're turning down more requests than in the past?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Yeah, it is fair to say. Definitely, we are turning down more requests, and we're also, we have to also conclude some of the placements we have due to insight restrictions, primarily, not only, but, but also due to that, which is something that we have not done previously. And that's, you know, we're not alone in doing that. I think that's a whole, the whole segment is doing the same. So it's a lot of, it's a big shift going on in personal assistance. But there are also positive signs.

I mean, it's discussed, sort of the index—the possible indexation of the, of the prices, for instance, that's something that is, you know, highly debated, and that is also sort of rumored to come into this, autumn budget, proposal, which would be a massive change for us. That it's not just, you know, 1.5% uptick in price, but rather tied to, cost levels, which will be, for us, you know, it's, way much, more predictable in terms of performance. But also actually the fact that the, the market has, you know, slowly, from a volume perspective, the number of people with, as a granted personal assistance has gone down, you know, for several years.

But that has actually had, you know, a couple of months where those volumes have turned, where more people are granted personal assistance, which also, y ou know, maybe it's not a huge turn right now, but over time, it should be promising. If that answers your questions.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Absolutely.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

And thanks a lot for your [crosstalk].

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Thank you very much.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Your comment. Thanks a lot for that.

Kristofer Liljeberg
Head of Research, Carnegie

Thanks. Bye-bye.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Bye.

Operator

The next question comes from Jakob Lemne from SEB. Please go ahead.

Jakob Lemne
Analyst, SEB

Hi, and, good morning. My first question is on Individual and Family. Is based on what you see today, when do you expect occupancies to start to improve year-over-year?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

We are still a bit behind in terms of occupancy, but what we can see is that the mix effects are also, you know, very, sort of, evident. And so we have fewer, relatively fewer clients, but higher turnover per client. So the mix effects are sort of balancing that occupancy, sort of gap. It is hard to say, but I think what we see in particular in the young segment is very, very promising. I think adult is still static, and I think that partly relates to the ability to pay for those type of placements that we have from the municipality side.

But I think if we can continue to maintain the development in the young division, and then gradually over the year, also try to start to improve the adult, you know, we will be in a good position.

Jakob Lemne
Analyst, SEB

Okay. And then on elderly care, I mean, it has been a very strong improvement here over the past quarters, but can you sort of update us on how much empty capacity you have left to fill here?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Yeah, sure. And absolutely, it's been, you know, we've seen a massive improvement, been sort of on the profitability side, so improving with SEK 20 million on a quarter-over-quarter basis. That said, you know, we had a terrible Q2 last year. So, you know, even if we're really happy about the improvement, it still comes from a fairly bad level. So, I mean, we really do believe that there is this, you know, significant potential left in there. And in order to really answer your question, we need to look at the two different segments, one being the own managed units, and the other one being the contracts. And I think from a contract perspective, they have sort of performed fairly evenly during all this period.

What's been the challenge has been our own managed units that have ramped up for a long time. And there is still a room for improvement in that segment. So with sort of several percentage points from where we are today. Whereas the contracts are, you know, they move around the levels that we think is sort of reasonable. But there is still, you know, the utilization levels still have several percentage points to improve.

Jakob Lemne
Analyst, SEB

Okay. Is the profitability in your own units below the average for LDK?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Yeah, they still are.

Jakob Lemne
Analyst, SEB

Okay. And then finally, just on this, remeasurement of the continued consideration for Assistans för dig , just trying to understand, does this mean that it develops sort of materially better than you anticipated or is, what is driving this?

Fredrik Larsson
CFO, Humana

It's not materially better. It's you remember that we did the last adjustment in June last year, and then it has been six months of estimate, and it's very small numbers because it's a multiple that we are working with. So it's, yeah, slightly better, but not materially. It's not huge. You have to look at it from the perspective of SEK 106 million against SEK 96 million, not SEK 10 million against SEK 20 million. That was the adjustment of the amount.

Jakob Lemne
Analyst, SEB

Okay, very clear. That's all for me. Good luck in the future, Johanna.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Thank you very much, Jakob.

Operator

The next question comes from Karl- Johan Bonnevier from DNB Markets. Please go ahead.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Analyst, DNB Markets

Yes, good morning, Johanna, Fredrik, and Ewelina. Fredrik, maybe you can help me with one thing. Looking at the capital structure and the gearing of 3.8x at the end of the quarter, what would it have been if the Finnish deal would have been concluded here in at this stage or pro forma basis for that?

Fredrik Larsson
CFO, Humana

I would say it would be roughly. Now, I'm just taking numbers from my head. I'm making a comparison with the Team Olivia acquisition that cost us SEK 200 million in cash payment, and that one increased leverage with 0.4%. And now when we're selling the Finnish business, we are getting EUR 25 million or close to SEK 300 million. So, roughly it will be 0.5 percentage point.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Analyst, DNB Markets

You will be substantially closer, at least, to the financial target. I guess Denmark, I understand, doesn't really change the needle in any way here, so.

Fredrik Larsson
CFO, Humana

No, no, no. No, Denmark's profit is roughly zero, and, and, net debt, it has no impact on net debt at all.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Analyst, DNB Markets

Excellent. I'm not sure if it's possible, but could you give us some idea on the timeline for the IVO appeal, the damage process? When do you think there could be any key dates in that process?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Well, I think it's very much sort of purely a legal process from now on, and we would guess it takes, you know, a year, a year and a half for that to conclude. That's our best guess at the moment.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Analyst, DNB Markets

Second half 2025 is the most logical part, basically?

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Yeah, somewhere around there, yeah.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Analyst, DNB Markets

Excellent. Thank you very much. Johanna and Fredrik, all the best out there with your new efforts.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Thanks a lot.

Fredrik Larsson
CFO, Humana

Thank you very much.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Johanna Rastad
CEO, Humana

Do we have any written? No. So no written questions. So, this was my final quarterly reports presentation before leaving Humana, and I'm happy that we in, in actual terms, could present the best-adjusted operating profit Humana's delivered in the second quarter. And thank you very much for all your support, particularly during the tougher quarters. That was extremely valuable to, the whole team here at Humana and to me personally. So, have a very good summer.

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