Karnov Group AB (publ) (STO:KAR)
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May 5, 2026, 5:29 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Feb 14, 2024

Operator

Welcome to the Karnov Group Q4 2023 report presentation. For the first part of the presentation, participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answers session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing star five star on their telephone keypad. Now I will hand the conference over to CEO Pontus Bodelsson and CFO Magnus Hansson. Please go ahead.

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

Welcome everyone to Karnov Group's earnings conference, where we will present the outcome of the fourth quarter and full year 2023. Please go to slide two. I am Pontus Bodelsson, President and CEO of the company. With me, I have our CFO Magnus Hansson and our Head of Investor Relations, Erik Berggren. Magnus and I will present the outcome of the quarter using a few slides, and then we'll open up for questions. With that said, let's get started with the presentation. Please go to slide three. It has truly been a successful year for Karnov Group. During the year, we've got new colleagues in Spain and France while progressing ahead of plan in a transformational integration. We have also launched our first generative AI solution for legal professionals, which is a great opportunity to increase customer value going forward.

Net sales grew to SEK 634 million in the fourth quarter. The organic growth was 6%, adjusted for the divested legal training business and the significant one-off sales of publications we had last year in Region North. Our positive sales development is thanks to higher subscription-based online sales. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 19% in the fourth quarter. In Q4, we can also see major margin improvement in Region South due to our harvesting of synergies. At the end of December, our leverage was at 2.8 times EBITDA last 12 months. That is thanks to our strong cash generation, and it's positive we are now below our financial target. Let's move over to slide four. 2023 was a transformative year. The Region South integration, which was initiated at the end of 2022, has progressed ahead of plan throughout the year, while synergies have been harvested as expected.

At the beginning of October, we launched our new profitable growth strategy with updated financial targets. The strategy and financial targets were presented at our very first Capital Markets Day. During the year, we have continued to innovate with a special focus on generative AI. The first solution was launched in Spain at the end of September, and it has now been launched also in France. Together with great colleagues, we integrated the new common core values. We knew that the Region South businesses had similar legacies to the businesses in Region North, but during the year, as we have got to know each other better, it has become evident that we also share a common purpose, a raison d'être, as well as a common vision. That is really encouraging for our plans for further collaborations between Region South and Region North. Next slide, please.

The Region South integration has progressed ahead of plan during the year, and synergies are being harvested as we expected in Spain. It is now time for us to accelerate our strategy to the rest of the group. Today, we announce our acceleration initiative. The ambition of our acceleration initiative is to further strengthen customer value while also improve the group profitability. The initiative shall generate additional cost efficiencies of EUR 10 million with full effect on run rate basis at the end of 2026. Cost to achieve is estimated to EUR 14 million. The cost efficiencies relate to rationalization of products, streamlining of processes, consolidating offices, and harmonizing of the IT infrastructure within the group. In parallel with the acceleration initiative, the Region South integration will continue uninterrupted.

This means that we will have two cost efficiency initiatives running until the end of 2026 with the ambition of harvesting efficiencies of EUR 20 million in total. Please go to slide six. So how can the acceleration initiative generate further customer value? Well, in the beginning of October, we presented our strategy and the strategic enablers: talent and culture, common tech infrastructure, implementing AI, all contributing to profitable growth. Talent and culture is about fostering a culture which drives profitable growth and implementing an even greater commercial mindset. Common tech infrastructure is about developing with many markets in mind and then enhancing with locally authored content. Generative AI enables great interaction with our content and makes our customers more efficient. We have an ambitious pipeline of AI innovation to come. Please go to slide seven. I will now comment a little on our segments, starting first with Region North.

It has been another successful year in Region North. We continue to achieve strong growth in the segment driven by increased subscription-based online sales. During the quarter, we have grown the customer base among municipalities in both Sweden and Denmark. Our focus is on operational excellence and increased customer value. Our common tech and product organizations in the region are now working on a generative AI solution to be launched on the platform during the year. Our Norwegian business, DIBkunnskap, has now become a Scandinavian business under Karnov's ownership. DIBkunnskap has expanded to Sweden. They have now operationally merged with our Danish business, Forlaget Andersen, to generate great customer offerings, combining the best of both businesses. Turning the page to slide eight. Region South has now been part of the Karnov family for a little more than a year. In Region South, we've seen concrete steps in AI.

Our generative AI solution was lately launched on our label or service, Liaisons Sociales. The financial performance has improved through the year, and in Q4, we took another leap in terms of profitability in the region. Magnus will talk more about that later on. We've made strong integration progress during Q4. We continue to progress ahead of plan both in terms of content migration and IT carve-outs. In the fourth quarter, the Aranzadi product, Siapol, was launched on the common tech platform. We have also completed decoupling of LA LEY from the seller. During the quarter, we initiated office consolidation in Spain, and at the end of Q4, we have generated synergies of EUR 2 million on an annual run rate basis.

As earlier announced, our intention is to harvest synergies of EUR 7.5 million with full effect starting at the end of 2024, and synergies of a total of EUR 10 million with full effect starting at the end of 2026. Costs to achieve the synergies are estimated to amount to EUR 24 million. The Region South integration will continue in parallel with the acceleration initiative. Turning the page to slide nine. The synergies from the Region South integration will come progressively over the period, but you can see that we have three peaks. As you can see, the office consolidation in Spain will have a positive impact on the EBITDA margin in Q1 this year. Then we have another peak in Q4 2024 with a common tech platform. Please go to slide 10.

Moving forward, we will report using this slide, which includes both the Region South integration and the acceleration initiative. In total, our ambition is to harvest synergies of EUR 20 million on an annual run rate basis by the end of 2026. Please go to slide 11. With that said, I will now hand over the floor to our CFO, Magnus Hansson. He will tell us more about the financial results in the fourth quarter and full year. Magnus, the floor is yours.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Thank you, Pontus. So let's start with an overview, switching to slide 12. The net sales development in Karnov Group has been strong for the past few years. This growth trajectory continued in the fourth quarter. Net sales during 2023 was SEK 2.5 billion, an increase of 8% compared to pro forma 2022. The growth is driven by increased online sales across the group. The increased online sales is due to a mix of volume and annual price adjustments. Of course, currency effects had a positive impact on net sales. Please go to slide 13. Net sales in Q4 were at SEK 634 million compared to SEK 600 million on a pro forma basis in 2022. The organic growth reached 6.4% in the fourth quarter, adjusted for the divested legal training and significant one-off sales of school publications we had in Q4 last year.

Organic growth is driven by online sales within the public sector, both municipalities and public administrations, supported by our EHS business and tax and accounting business. Next slide, please. On slide 14, you see that the net sales development within online and offline split into segments. In Region North, the online sales increased by 13% compared to Q4 the previous year and accounted for 91% of net sales in the quarter. In Region South, the online sales increased by 6% compared to pro forma numbers in 2022 and accounted for approximately 73% of net sales in Q4. Please change to slide 15. Subscription-based sales increased during Q4 and represent about 87% of net sales in the quarter. The subscription-based sales also generate a solid operating cash flow as our renewal season is Q4 and Q1. Please change to slide 16.

The adjusted EBITDA increased by 15% in Q4 and amounted to SEK 122 million. This corresponds to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.2%, 1.5 percentage points better than performance in 2022. Region South was the driver of the improved margin in the quarter as synergies are starting to have an increasing positive impact. Items affecting comparability amounted to SEK 36 million in Q4 and is mainly related to the integration of Region South. At the end of Q4, we have decreased cost in Region South by EUR 2 million on an annual run rate basis. As earlier announced, the ambition and short-term focus in Region South is to harvest synergies of EUR 10 million on an annual run rate basis by the end of 2026.

As Pontus just mentioned, with the new acceleration initiative, we are now aiming for an additional cost synergies of EUR 10 million by the end of 2026, again annual run rate basis. Let's move to slide 17. Region North has a strong net sales development. In Q4, net sales amounted to SEK 271 million . The organic growth was 7.7% adjusted for the divested legal training and one-off sales, while the weaker Swedish krona generated currency effect of 1.7%. The growth is driven by online sales, and we continue to strengthen our market position in the public sector, EHS, and tax and accounting. Adjusted EBITDA reached SEK 103 million in Q4. This is an increase of 6 million SEK compared to last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin amounted to 38.1%.

The slight decline is explained by the increased depreciations of SEK 5 million compared to the previous year due to completed capitalized development projects. Please move on to slide 18, which is the Region South segment. Net sales in Region South increased by SEK 18 million compared to pro forma Q4 last year. The increase is due to positive development within legal training supported by currency effects. The Adjusted EBITDA margin was 12% in the fourth quarter, which is an improvement of a little more than 5 percentage points. Harvested synergies amount to EUR 0.4 million in the quarter. Moving to slide 19, which represents the group functions segment. Group functions consist of functions taking responsibility for group-wide tasks. The underlying cost base, excluding ordinary one-offs, is unchanged in Region North and group functions compared to 2022.

During the quarter, we have invested in group-wide projects such as business system enhancements and AI innovations. Expenses in Q4 reached SEK 26 million compared to SEK 21 million in the third quarter. Please go to slide 20. Karnov Group has a strong cash generation in our invoices. We will renew the majority of our customer contracts during Q4 and Q1, which then generate a solid operating cash flow. The operating cash flow is slightly lower in Q4 2023 than in 2022, mainly due to interest paid and a slight delay of payments from customers in Region North, a matter of timing. The leverage was 2.8 times EBITDA last 12 months at the end of December, meaning we are now below our cash flows. I'm now handing over to Pontus again, who will present our last slides.

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

Thank you, Magnus. Please make sure you are on slide 12. These are our highlights of 2023. Region North has generated strong results also in 2023, and focus moving forward is generating greater profitability through operational excellence and value enhancements. The Region South integration progresses ahead of plan, and synergies are being harvested as expected. We are now launching our acceleration initiative to advance our profitable growth strategy across the group. Please go to slide 22. By this, I'll end our presentation, and we are now ready to take questions. I'll hand over the conference to our host.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial pound key 5 on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial pound key 6 on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Daniel Ovin from Nordea. Please go ahead.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Yes, good morning, Pontus and Magnus, and thank you for taking my questions. So first question is on the South region and the quite strong uplift we saw there. If I remember correctly, last year's pro forma Adjusted EBITDA was SEK 23 million, and now you delivered SEK 45 million. And I think you mentioned here synergies of SEK 0.4 million in the quarter. So there seems to have been quite a big uptick also ex the synergies. So maybe you can elaborate a little bit on why the South region was so strong and if that trajectory is something that we can expect also going forward. That's the first question.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Yes, you're absolutely correct. The synergies are about EUR 0.4 million in the quarter. And then we are also having a stronger cost control in other areas and also a slightly lower or not slightly, but a lower depreciation in Q4 this year than we did last year. And also remember, we actually got the keys on December 1st.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Okay. All right. Yeah. But that lower depreciation, I mean, that's something that's going to stay around this level, or was that kind of a one-off only for Q4?

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Yeah. So we expect that to stay at the level of Q4 2023.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Okay. That's great. And then just follow up also on South because you mentioned that you were on a EUR 2 million synergy run rate euro end of the quarter. And I just wanted to check for Q1. Do you expect to derive additional synergies also in Q1 more than those EUR 2 million run rate that you have now from 1st of January?

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Yes. So by the end of Q4, we had SEK 2 million. And then, of course, we have the office part that we've spoken about, the SEK 1 million synergies on an annual run rate due to office optimization that will start January 1st.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Okay. That's on top of the SEK 2 million?

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Yes.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Okay. So that's a SEK 3 million run rate now, actually, from 1st of January then?

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Yes.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Okay. Great. And then just last question on this, the cost of this accelerated initiative, EUR 40 million, if I remember correctly, how is that going to be evenly split, or is it front-loaded in the beginning, or is it back-loaded, or can you say anything of how we should expect the cost for that to play out?

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

First of all, I would like to say that we will come back with the timeline as we move along. To answer the question, it will be slightly shifted towards the end of 2024 and 2025.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Okay. All right. So quite back-loaded then, it sounds. A bit back-loaded.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

The program is running until 2026. So I would say.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

I see. Okay.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

I would say that it's loaded towards the middle of the program rather than actually at the end.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Yeah. Okay. Perfect. That's all my questions. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Simon Jonsson from Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Simon Jonsson
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Morning, Pontus and Magnus. Simon here from Berenberg. A couple of questions from our side as well. Starting off with the organic growth in Region North, it was excellent in 2023. Could you help us understand how much that will decelerate when we're entering 2024 because I assume that the pricing component in 2023 was greater than it will be in 2024?

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Yes. I agree with that as well. Of course, the inflation played a greater part in the price adjustments for 2023 than it will for 2024. So the pricing adjustment component is slightly stronger in that sense, yes.

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

In general, we see no big changes in the demand on the market like municipalities and law firms. So the municipality products in both Sweden and Denmark are so far enjoying the customer's appreciation in a good way. On top of that, of course, we've got the Norwegian company, as I mentioned before, DIBkunnskap, launching now in Denmark. So that's going to be really interesting to see. And as I mentioned, around AI-supported services. In the second half of 2024, we will be seeing a launch of AI-supported service in Sweden and Denmark. So it's going to be an interesting year.

Simon Jonsson
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Very good. And then to the acceleration program, could you perhaps provide some more tangible examples here, what you will do? And also, will you reduce any staff in this program? And maybe a final question on that one is, will this be more tilted towards Region North or Region South?

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

Well, the ignition for all this is, of course, part of a greater plan that we've had for a long time. Starting out with the first step in our integration is the post-merger integration plan, as we have been reporting on for several quarters, in Spain. And when we now can see actually the plan in Spain taking off, and we are since quite some time ahead of the plan, we will take the opportunity to also continue that and do the integration for the whole group. So we are now expanding sort of the same thinking and the same actions from Spain onto also the other parts. So it's a part of an integration for Karnov Group as a whole. And that's where we will find the harvesting of synergies and also letting us focus a bit more and accelerate our strategy execution.

So we will find definitely in the whole group, speaking about, for example, product rationalizations, harmonizing of IT infrastructure, which will support us and give a chance to launch one product in one market and then easily transform that into the benefit of customers in other markets. Then, as Magnus mentioned, continued office consolidation, not only in Spain but also in the other markets. Final example I can give is that we are accelerating the process of transforming offline products to online products and also the way we work. We will work a bit more digital than we have done before. So it's several parts enabling us to accept strategy execution as a whole.

Simon Jonsson
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Okay. Great. But this does not include any integration of the tech platforms, sort of getting one big tech platform in Europe?

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

Well, it's definitely in our plans going forward. The exact timeline for that, we haven't set, but we are taking the first steps. There are, as you know, several different components in having a global tech platform. We will take important steps already during 2024 and 2025 in harmonizing this, making it possible to work more efficiently, for example, with content creation and reaping the benefits in North for the very innovative products and internal tools that we have found in the Spanish market, especially LA LEY, which is one of the two companies in Spain we acquired.

Simon Jonsson
Equity Research Analyst, Berenberg

Okay. Very good. That was all from my side. Thank you.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Thank you.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

We have one question from the audience around the number of licensed subscriptions and the development in Region North in the quarter. Perhaps, Magnus, you could elaborate a bit about the development here in the fourth quarter.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

So we continue to see a strong development of our subscription base in Region North. We grew by, was it 13%?

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

Yes.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Yeah. 13% on revenues in our subscription base. Of course, that's related to the number of licenses as well. So strong development in Region North in that sense.

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

Coming back to the customer segments, we see that we have more licenses to our existing customers and then again, new municipalities joining us for our municipality product, Karnov Kommun.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Of course, the churn continued to be at a low level in Region North.

Daniel Ovin
Senior Portfolio Manager, Nordea

Excellent. Thank you for that. Question around the Region South integration. So the migration of Aranzadi is, of course, key. And you mentioned in the report that more than 50% of the Aranzadi content is now migrated onto the common content platform. Given this progress, how derisked would you consider the overall Aranzadi migration? Any potential pitfalls emerged by now?

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

Well, it's difficult to quantify, of course, the risks. But you can tell by the fact that we are now launching the new acceleration initiative that we are quite certain that it will go on in a very smooth way. We have seen very good energy and focus from our colleagues in Spain in this process. What we can see apart from the content, because we see the content migration going faster than we have hoped for from the very beginning, now having more than 50% migrated to the new platform. And I would like also to mention a very specific product. It's an Aranzadi product from the very beginning, and it's now on the new tech platform, and it's working perfectly.

That's a very good example of actually taking those small steps all the time, making sure that we keep up the speed, and we will definitely be able to deliver going forward.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Thank you. No more questions from the audience. So, Pontus?

Pontus Bodelsson
President and CEO, Karnov Group

Okay. I guess then that we can end the presentation and the questions. Thank you, everyone, for listening and for your questions, of course. We will disclose our Q1 report on the 7th of May, so we hope to hear from you then, if not earlier. Thank you for joining. Have a good day.

Magnus Hansson
CFO, Karnov Group

Thank you.

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