Kinnevik AB (STO:KINV.B)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

Apr 20, 2023

Operator

Good day, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Kinnevik third quarter 2023 conference call. I would now like to hand the conference over to our speaker today, Georgi Ganev, CEO of the company. Please go ahead.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

Thank you very much. Good morning and welcome to the presentation of Kinnevik's results for the first quarter of 2023. I'm Georgi Ganev, Kinnevik's CEO, and with me today is our CFO, Samuel Sjöström, and our Director of Corporate Communications, Torun Lithen. On today's call, we will be walking you through the key events during the quarter, including our most recent Investment activity in Healthcare. We will lay out the key valuation changes, and finally, we will also track our progress against the priorities we set at the beginning of the year. On a more general note, the Market backdrop has been very volatile with continued stock Market Turbulence in reaction to Macroeconomic Indicators. This instability was made worse by distress in the banking sector.

The impact on Kinnevik in our companies was limited, but it served as a reminder of the importance of financial resilience in these very uncertain times. While the growth in venture capital Markets remained slow in the first quarter, six of our companies successfully closed funding rounds. Let's go to page four with the key highlights of the quarter. Our net asset value amounted to SEK 55.5 billion. That is up 5% in the first quarter of 2023. Samuel will guide you through the development of our NAV in more detail and how the valuations of our private companies have developed in just a few minutes. During the quarter, we also invested significant capital to accrete our Ownership in Spring Health and Agreena.

Since our first Investment in Agreena a year ago, the company has seen very strong growth, increasing its covered land by 10 x and expanding its geographic footprint to 16 countries across Europe. They have exceeded our already high expectations in their pursuit to drive the shift to regenerative Agriculture. The Investments in Spring and Agreena are great examples of how we are seizing the opportunity a slower Market generates to double down in the companies where we have the highest conviction. That is also one of our top priorities during 2023. We also added Enveda to our emerging healthcare portfolio, a Biotechnology company innovating drug discovery through analyzing natural compounds with large language models. I will dive deeper into both Spring and Enveda in just a minute.

The Investment activity in the quarter was more than financed by a full exit of our Teladoc Investment, which means we ended the quarter with a net cash position remaining at just over SEK 10 billion. Teladoc is the first truly significant full exit from our younger growth portfolio, it's also a key milestone as reallocating capital within our portfolio is a fundamental part of our strategy. Before we move on to the next page, I would like to highlight that Kinnevik has once again been recognized for our leadership in sustainability. We ranked first in the VC category in the Honordex Inclusive PE and VC index of 2023. We were also rated by Equileap as a top performer in Sweden for gender equality. These recognitions are a testament to our hard work, our dedication, and commitment towards equality, diversity, and inclusion.

On the next page is an overview of our Investment into Spring Health and some insight into why we have such strong conviction in the company. Spring's ambition is to reshape mental health care into treatments tailored to each individual by using big data and machine learning. Since our Investment in 2021, the company has seen impressive traction among its customers and grow its revenue by over 7x . We led the round with a $40 million Investment and invested an additional $10 million into secondaries from an early-stage Investor. The company is now funded to break even. All this means that we have redoubled our Investment and accreted our Ownership in one of our most promising businesses and done so at a more balanced valuation. This is also what we said we would do at the start of the year.

The founders, April Koh and Adam Chekroud, are setting a new standard in mental health care, and we are very excited to continue supporting the journey. Now moving to page six, where we will provide some more details on our exit of Teladoc. Since our first Investment in Livongo six years ago, our Investment has generated an IRR of 55%. This gain, equivalent to SEK 4 billion, has financed our Investment into new healthcare businesses since 2020, including companies such as Cityblock, Spring Health, Transcarent, Recursion, and most recently, Enveda. This portfolio today is valued at around SEK 7 billion. As I mentioned before, this is a proof point of the validity of our strategy and shows that our model works. That is to reallocate capital within the portfolio to fund new Investments and maintain an attractive portfolio distribution.

On page seven is an overview of the biotech company Enveda, the most recent addition to our emerging cluster of life Sciences Investments. Enveda was founded on the belief that the answer to many of our most common illnesses and diseases can be found in nature. Returns diminished due to limitations in understanding nature's complex Chemical makeup. Enveda uses novel machine learning techniques such as large language models to create a search engine to index and map the chemical components of plants. Today, Science knows less than 5% of nature's chemistry, transforming this, our understanding made possible by Enveda search engine, has the potential to improve existing drugs as well as bring entirely new ones to the Market to treat unmet diseases.

The company was founded by Viswa Colluru, a PhD in cellular molecular biology and a true visionary. He previously held leadership roles at Recursion, another portfolio company of ours, which he left in 2019 to start Enveda. In April, we invested $25 million alongside our partner fund Dimension, who was also an early backer of the company. Enveda fits squarely into our emerging life Sciences strategy, and the Investments gives us exposure and access to the technological revolution currently underway in the Pharma Industry. While it is an early-stage company, we are impressed by the platform they built and very excited about the potential to create something truly impactful in healthcare. I would now like to hand over to our CFO, Samuel, to go through the private valuations and the development of our NAV starting on page nine.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Thanks, Georgi. Q1 was, for a change, a less dramatic quarter for our private valuations. That means I'm going to talk to a thinner set of pages than has been the case in the last few quarters. That does not mean, however, that we feel we're providing less information in this quarter, quite the contrary. Some of you may already have had the time to skim through Note 4 in today's release. For those of you who are less acquainted, Note 4 is the part of our report where we lay out the valuations of our private businesses in more detail. In this quarter, we've made a fair amount of revisions to this section of our report. The objective has been to provide you more information in a less dense and more digestible way.

We've been drawing on the data we've provided you through a tumultuous 2022 and sought to institutionalize it in our report rather than to provide it in more ad hoc ways in the presentations like the one we're halfway through now. After you've had the time to go through our report more carefully, I look forward to hearing your feedback and thoughts on how we can continue to improve our disclosure and help your understanding of what we feel is a very exciting set of businesses. With that, on to Q1. In this quarter, an underlying write-up of 2%-3% translates into a small 1% SEK fair value write-up from last quarter.

Adding 0.8 billion SEK invested primarily into Spring and Agreena brings us to the 1.1 billion SEK increase in the carrying value of our private businesses this quarter, just shy of the 30 billion mark. What's underpinning this small write-up? Firstly, we had some support from public Market multiples this quarter, and valuation multiples in our private portfolio expanded as well, but by a much more modest figure of around 1%. The difference here is primarily coming from value-based care, where we're dealing with a public benchmark that is in flux after several buyouts. Apart from that, there is some structural multiple contractions stemming from our companies growing materially faster than the average peer, and also a few idiosyncratic adjustments to the valuation levels of certain Investments. Secondly, we're recalibrating expectations for certain investees in this quarter.

Our more B2B-focused companies are performing in line with highly set expectations. As Jorgi mentioned, we've noted some incremental softness in some of our consumer-facing businesses that has caused us to reconsider our growth expectations through a more conservative lens. The effect on our portfolio of these revised expectations is continued strong growth and a rolling NTM outlook that is increasing, but not necessarily increasing at a level that we expected a quarter back. That one-off adjustment is holding this quarter's write-up back a bit. From a more technical standpoint, contrary to the last few quarters, liquidation preferences brought a negative impact to our fair values this quarter as we quote-unquote, amortized the accrued effect of preferences down from SEK 3.2 billion to SEK 2.9 billion, or around 10% of the total carrying value of our private Investments.

We lay out in today's report, this effect is fairly concentrated as 75% of this accrued difference relate to five relatively mature and well-funded Investments, representing around SEK 4 billion of fair value. In total, the NAV we post today entails a small write-up held back by some slight headwinds in consumer-facing businesses and a fair amount of caution on multiples with contraction relative to public peers. Now, us taking a more cautious approach is manifested in the clearing prices we're seeing in our private Market. Broader Market indicators suggest a funding environment that again declined quarter-on-quarter, nevertheless, we had six funding rounds in our portfolio in Q1. On average, these rounds were concluded at valuations almost 50% above our underlying Q4 marks.

As we said in Q4, the concept of a public-private valuation gap may be a phenomenon in the broader Market from a macro point of view as companies delay their repricing. It does not seem to exist in our NAV when these repricing events actually materialize. I think that speaks to the benefits of our permanent capital model in this type of volatile Market. We swallowed a lot of bitter pills last year when writing down the underlying value of our private portfolio by around 50% on average. This also means we entered 2023 with a set of valuations that reflected the current reality rather than that of a company's last funding round. This means we can operate in a free and in a rational way, focused on creating value rather than on sunk costs and protecting the last headline valuation.

With that, I'd like to touch briefly on the handful of more material valuation revisions we're making this quarter. That means we're on page 10. I mentioned the buyouts activity in value-based care, which is something that has been going on over the last six months and has caused the best public benchmarks for our value-based care businesses to be taken or be on the cusp of being taken private. That's why we're being careful and expanding our multiples by low single-digit % in our two large value-based care businesses, VillageMD and Cityblock, even though Public Benchmarks have expanded more aggressively. Nevertheless, even with this caution, we're writing up both Investments with around 10% this quarter. For VillageMD, that means we're virtually valuing it in line with where last quarter's transaction took place, up from a 10% discount in Q4.

For Cityblock, it means we're valuing the business at a similar discount to VillageMD as the one we've upheld since mid-2021. Jorgi mentioned the funding round at Spring, which is a key achievement against our priorities this year. As far as valuation goes, we're valuing the company in line with where this round took place. That means a 25% write-up of our stake before taking into account the new capital we've put to work. Even so, our forward revenue multiple expands by no more than around 10%, and this is roughly in line with the average movement in the public peer group in the quarter and means that our multiple is down more than 40% compared to where we were a year ago, and almost 70% from where we concluded our first Investment back in September 2021.

This Investment delivering 25% value appreciation during a period of 70% multiple contraction is an indication of what we've been saying in the past. Namely, that the key long-term valuation risks in our portfolio revolves around execution and operations rather than around valuation multiples. On the other side of the spectrum, we're taking down our valuation of Instabee by 15% in the quarter. E-commerce in the Nordics is slowing, and while Instabee continues to show strong growth and gain Market share, this has implications on short-term expectations on top line and therefore also on our valuations from a quarter-on-quarter perspective. At Monese, the other large write-down this quarter, we've revised our expectations on the company's Investment needs as it continues to pivot its revenue mix from B2C to B2B.

This impacts our valuation negatively in the short term until we have a clearer financing path and is effectively what causes the 35% write-down in the quarter. As mentioned, in aggregate, the slight weakness this quarter is primarily coming from our B2C businesses. Looking at underlying valuation changes, we're writing up our more business-facing Investments by around 6% in the quarter, while we're writing down our consumer-facing businesses by almost 10%. The net effect of that, where around 3/4 of our carrying value falls into the business-facing category, is what adds up to the 1% fair value write-up this quarter. Moving on to page 11 and adding the development in our public Investments. We exited Teladoc slightly above where it closed the first quarter and a few hundred million SEK above where it closed Q4.

Tele2 had a strong quarter, trading up by more than 20%. This causes our NAV to be up by 5% in total in Q1, ending at SEK 55.5 billion or SEK 198 per share. SEK 10.5 billion of that NAV is in net cash, as we're ending this quarter with an even stronger financial position than we started it. To give you some more sense of in what type of context we're expecting to deploy that capital, let's move ahead to page 12. All right, in past quarters, we've shown you our runway estimates for our portfolio. Those remain largely the same, with some incremental improvements stemming from the fundraisers concluded in the quarter.

Looking at the uses of our capital through a different lens, what we're showing on this page is the different backdrops to our forecasted follow-on Investments in 2023. To recall, our expectation for 2023 is to deploy around SEK 5 billion in total, split roughly 50/50 between new Investments and follow-on Investments into our existing portfolio. Out of the follow-on half of these SEK 5 billion, more than 70% is forecasted to be deployed in rounds or transactions we're instigating ourselves or where we're going to attempt to invest more than our pro-rata share. You've seen examples of that this quarter at Spring Health and at Agreena. Less than 20% of our follow-on forecast is in rounds that are planned for this year in more emerging businesses and where we're targeting pro-rata participation for the time being.

The remaining 10% or so, or call it around SEK 250 million, is our forecasted deployment into Investments where we're seeking to minimize our participation for various reasons. Where we still believe us providing additional capital is preferable to the potential alternatives available. What could make us underperform against these expectations? Well, we do not believe us being dragged into rescue financings in some of our less performing, more troubled businesses a factor here. Rather, we see two different circumstances having the potential to affect the ultimate outcome. Firstly, we may not be able to deploy as much capital as we would like to into our existing high conviction businesses, either because of competition on the demand side or because of lack of supply at valuations we find attractive.

All else equal, that will push the SEK 5 billion and the percentage share of follow-ons downward. Secondly, it may be that the current Market environment makes it harder for us to find enough attractive new opportunities to invest in. Georgi has mentioned before the importance of not letting the bar for a great Investment subconsciously creep downward because of a lack of supply and itchy fingers, and we do not know for sure whether the Market will pick up enough steam for us to find sufficient opportunities to deploy the SEK 2.5 billion we're expecting to deploy into new Investments this year. Not managing to source and execute on new opportunities would naturally push the SEK 5 billion downward as well as the percentage share of new Investments. Again, all else equal. To sum up, our financial position is strong.

We're beginning to materialize opportunities to accrete in our highest conviction companies during a period of more balanced valuations. We're working hard on sifting out new opportunities in a less intense fundraising environment, such as our Inveta Investment announced today. With that, I'd like to hand it back over to Georgi for his concluding remarks.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

Thank you, Samuel. Let's now go to page 15 to take stock of our priorities and expectations for 2023. Kinnevik is a truly long-term Investor, which is becoming increasingly valued by our founders. The Market backdrop will likely continue to be volatile and difficult to navigate for some time to come, and financial resilience is vital. That said, it's our responsibility to continue supporting and pushing our companies to remain aggressive, challenging, and innovative. This will ensure that their customer offerings remain relevant not only in the next quarter but for the next 10 years. During the first couple of months of 2023, we have remained disciplined in our capital allocation and end the quarter with a stronger net cash position that we entered it with.

With our Investments into Spring Health and Agreena, we have taken the opportunity to double down and accrete our Ownership in the businesses where we have the highest conviction, and we have done it during a period of more balanced valuations. We are also actively working with our more challenged Investments and believe no more than around 10% of our expected follow-on Investment this year will go to companies where we seek to minimize our commitment, as we heard Samuel go through. With Enveda, we're also proving our ability to source and execute on new exciting Investment opportunities in a slower venture and growth Market, and we hope to repeat these achievements throughout 2023.

We are as ever grateful to our shareholders for the strong support as we continue executing on our shorter-term priorities and our longer-term strategy. We look forward to meeting many of you at our annual general meeting in Stockholm on the eighth of May. With that, we're now ready to answer your questions. Operator, please open up for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. This will take a few moments. Thank you. We're going to take our first question. The question comes from line of Joakim Gannevik from DNB. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Joakim Gannevik
Analyst, DNB

Thank you very much, and good morning. It makes total sense in terms of being more dynamic in your capital reallocation to make this final sell down in Teladoc at also attractive returns. Can you comment here a bit on the timing with regards to the fact that you already had a quite sizable net cash position in Q1?

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

Hello, Joakim. Thank you for the question. Yes, of course. I mean, I think for us it's about also managing the entire exposure to the healthcare sector, right? We invested in virtual care already in 2017, and we have expanded our exposure in that sector. Now, what we have seen in the last, you know, years, we have been focusing more on niche players such as Quintiles, Spring Health, to name a few. We've also grown into the area of more kind of life Sciences Investments with Recursion and Enveda. It's not only, you know, our ability to demonstrate a full exit and redeploy capital, but also to slightly skew the exposure within the healthcare sector.

Joakim Gannevik
Analyst, DNB

Understood. Thank you. For Samuel then, can you just comment a bit on the fact that you actually apply a 10% discount, if I understand correctly, to the valuations at which you which six of your holdings raised capital here in Q1 to add further prudence, I would assume. What's the reasoning there?

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Yeah, you're right, Joakim. We're at a 10% discount relative to the last headline valuations on a valuated basis. Look, I think this is a case-by-case assessment. It's guided by parameters I think you understand are relevant, such as internal or external participation, size of the round, and also clearly potential structural considerations. On top of that, sure, there's some overall conservative given us in that assessment as well. As you see, for instance, with VillageMD, we were at a 10% discount last quarter, and now we've sort of caught up. We like it that way.

Joakim Gannevik
Analyst, DNB

Great. Then just finally then, I would assume that the Q1 2023 results marked the, call it, end to the five-year, long-term incentive program announced when you initiated this growth pivot in 2018. Can you just comment a bit on what, the IRR or, call it return on invested capital in your unlisted portfolio have been over the past five years?

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Sure. As you recall, Joakim gannef, five years ago, our unlisted portfolio was very exposed to a set of emerging Market businesses. You'll remember Bayport, BIMA, Quikr, and so forth. Those have developed, let's be honest, extremely poorly over these last five years, and that's been holding the IRR and the private portfolio down quite a bit. As we've let you know in connection with the Q4 results, if you look at the IRR on the portfolio we've actually built over the last five years in the developed Markets, that IRR is steady at around 30% since inception. As relates to the LTIP program, that fairly significant write-down of the emerging Market portfolio means that there's no shares vesting in that program.

If you wanna talk about the performance of the strategy, then I think a 30% IRR is more relevant over the last five years. Again, we were incentivized also on protecting value in the emerging Market portfolio we inherited, and we failed doing so.

Joakim Gannevik
Analyst, DNB

Thank you very much for that color, and, have a great day.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Please stand by. The next question comes from line of Derek Laliberté from ABG Sundal Collier. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Derek Laliberté
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Good morning, and thank you very much. I was wondering if you could talk a bit about this strategic Investor in Cedar? Sounded pretty interesting. Also if you could sort of give some flavor around the drivers behind the company's strong performance of late? Thank you.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Sure. Hi, Derek. I'll start on Cedar. It's a fairly small Investment, at least in comparison to the valuation of the company from a nonprofit health plan in Texas, if I'm not mistaken. We're sort of disregarding that Investment. It's virtually an extension of the company's 2021 round. We feel like, you know, perhaps, price has not been on the top of the agenda when discussing that Investment in the context of a broader partnership. We stick to our model rather than to let that extension Investment calibrate our valuation of Cedar.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

Yeah. That said, I would like to add that we see Cedar's position being very strong still and, the kind of the future prospect of the company's growth is more than basically even better than our expectations.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Yeah. I'm sorry, Derek, I just realized, just to be very clear, that extension Investment in Cedar is not included in the numbers we're giving you as far as differences between headline valuations and our valuations go.

Derek Laliberté
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Okay. Yeah, that's clear. Then, I'd like to wonder, I think you maybe were clear on this already, but when it comes to the overall healthcare segments, segment and your Investments here, I mean, is it fair to say that you're basically done with value-based care when it comes to new Investments and perhaps also virtual care and that the main focus is on emerging life Sciences? Because, I mean, you obviously made the Spring Health and Parsley Health follow-ons here, and they're quite new Investments, but those were follow-ons, so I think, yeah, just thinking in terms of new Investments as you calibrate your exposure.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

I think done is a strong word. But to nuance that, I think the exposure today we have on value-based care is balanced. We have exposure, as you know, in VillageMD and also Cityblock, different populations, both Co-companies performing. And we also have Babylon with exposure to value-based care. I think for us now it's about, you know, distributing the portfolio according to the larger trends and the best opportunities we see. As we've said before, the opportunity within drug discovery in companies like Recursion and Enveda are extremely fascinating, and we are super happy with those two new Investments and might be more coming.

Derek Laliberté
Analyst, ABG Sundal Collier

Cool. Finally from my side, I was wondering if you could just remind us about the Investment case in your public Investment here in Recursion, which was sort of a special situation with Investors investing in a public company and that was sort of the first Investment. From the outside, it mainly seems like you followed Baillie Gifford on this one, and the stock has been a really bad performer of late. Just to get your perspective there would be great. Thank you.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

Okay, first, thank you, Derek. I mean, first of all, this is a company we knew from a long time ago, and we have followed it. We kind of missed the opportunity when it was private. It then went public, trading at high multiples like a lot of things in 2021. We then saw the opportunity when the company did a PIPE transaction, so basically in the public Market but, the opportunity for us as a private Investor to go in there and actually do a primary Investment. In these businesses of course it's possible for us to accrete Ownership in the public Market, but the ability to provide primary capital to that type of businesses is much more interesting to us.

The fact that Baillie Gifford had a relationship with them was obviously helpful to us because we know them well, and we could again cross-reference and triangulate these founders and to understand much better, you know, the strength, the opportunities, but also the challenges of the business. But it just confirmed our underlying thesis that we had built up for quite some time. Therefore we're super happy with that Investment. In the short term, I of course agree with you. The stock has not been trading positively, but we think that is the short term. It doesn't change our long-term view of the business.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Great. That's very helpful on the background there. I wasn't aware. Thank you very much. That's all.

Operator

Thank you. Now we're gonna take our next question. Please stand by. The next question comes from line of Johan Sjöberg from Kepler Cheuvreux. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you. I would like just to continue on the value-based care business and, have you changed your assumption in terms of competitive landscape or the long-term growth outlook, or just wanna hear your thoughts about how you view this segment?

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

think what we've seen during the last 18 months is again, a volatile Market with valuation going up and down. I think that is the impact we see. Actually underlying business operation, we are seeing basically both of our companies performing, and if anything, I think it's going to be fewer companies that really can crack the code in these difficult populations, especially around Cityblock. So we haven't changed our view on the long-term prospect.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Great. When it comes to VillageMD, I mean it's quite a sizable share of value-based care and, also actually the whole unlisted portfolio. We've seen a couple of sales in this over the last years. What is sort of the long term? How should we view VillageMD? Is it sort of a hole in which you're about to sort of phase out or are you in line with what you're talking about your capital reallocation within the portfolio?

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

As we've said before, we have previously sold down in VillageMD. I think it became obvious when Walgreens Boots Alliance became the majority shareholder that our 10 years active owner was going to an end, right. Also we're super happy with that partnership and that Ownership because it also makes the possibility, makes it possible for VillageMD to grow in a better way. Of course, it's a smaller Investment in terms of Ownership size for us, but a large Investment in terms of fair value. Yes, it could be a potential target sometime in the future for capital allocation, reallocation.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thanks for your honest answer there, Georgi. Just coming back also, follow up on your capital reallocation and your 2023 expectations here. Just talking about the, these 70%, high conviction businesses, could you give some sort of indication which sectors we are talking about here? Which is sort of where you, Of course, we got some lead from Spring Health here, but, going forward here, how, where do you see it?

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

I would argue that we have, those type of businesses in all our sectors.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

It's difficult to name a few because then you will ask questions about the ones that are not naming.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Sure, sure.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

I think there are businesses typically that, you know, they have proven their ability to handle, you know, difficult times, strong leadership from the CEO and founder, the ability to demonstrate that the business model works with, you know, underlying either strong margins or a very, you know, strong efficiency, high efficiency. I think that all in all, makes us convinced that these companies will be digital winners in their respective sectors. We have those type of businesses. We would like to, as I've said before, almost kind of protect them, for not, you know, cutting costs too much or slowing growth that much, but rather actually want to preempt the potential round.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Mm.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

Make it possible for them to continue to grow and take Market share. That's really what we've done now in Spring Health and Agreena. I think Spring Health being a bit different because they're funded now to break even. We are very certain that the model works. We're super convinced about the team. That we can demonstrate as a long-term bet.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay. Also on your comment about the 10% minimize the participation is driving a low conviction businesses. What is this really? I mean, You could interpret it like you are throwing good money after bad money, because it seems like you have some businesses which always are struggling. I think earlier when we talked about this, you said that, well, you know, we are not going to invest into businesses which we don't, you know, we have no obligations basically to invest into business which we don't believe in. Here it seems like you are actually thinking about doing that. Or am I reading you wrong here?

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

No, I think we want to be transparent and honest. Of course, there's a sliding scale, right? Businesses that we don't believe in.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

-or don't believe we have a future in, we won't invest at all. That's for sure. These, you know, these businesses are the ones that are in some sort of, you know, borderline, where you would argue that deploying more capital, limited capital into this business would either protect or create more value than letting it go.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Mm.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

go bust. For us-

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

If the alternative is something that is worse, we of course, we look at deploying capital, but only in a very disciplined manner, right. Every decision will be taken, you know, with the backdrop that what is the alternative? It's not that we will end up deploying money in companies we don't believe in, but we have, of course, businesses that will have slightly less conviction or a lot less conviction compared to some of the stars in the portfolio. That will always be the case.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

Perfectly clear. My final question, you said SEK 5 billion Investment this year. When you're looking into next year, is it, I know it's early days, but, have you seen some sort of, could give some sort of indication about the Investment base? Will it be higher, lower, same size? What do you think?

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

I think we have no reason today to adjust. As Samuel said, there is obviously a risk that this Market makes it more difficult for us to deploy, you know, the capital we foresee to deploy in the high performing businesses. It might also be kind of less opportunities. We look at many companies, but we end up investing in just quite a few. Having said that, if we amount the money we have deployed just in Agreena and Spring Health, that is around SEK 700 million. Enveda with another $25 million, so a bit more than SEK 250 million. That's just in the first quarter, mentioning those three.

I think we have already demonstrated at the beginning of this year that we have the ability to keep up the Investment momentum. Again, this is not a kind of budget that we need to keep. If we don't find the best opportunities, we will save that money for next year.

Johan Sjöberg
Equity Research Analyst, Kepler Cheuvreux

That's great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Now we'll go and take our next question. Please stand by. Our next question comes from line of Rasmus Engberg from Handelsbanken. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Rasmus Engberg
Financial Analyst, Handelsbanken

Yes. Hi. Hi. Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. I was just coming back to VillageMD. What is the expected revenue for this year, roughly? It's such a big part of your values. I thought it'd be interesting to know that.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Sure. Hi, Rasmus. I think we point out in today's report in note four that we're expecting Village to grow by around 35% this year. That's clearly lower than what was the case in 2022, and that's driven by the acquisition of Summit Health, which is a more mature player. You also see in our report today, I believe, that we're expecting the company to be profitable on an EBITDA basis this year.

Rasmus Engberg
Financial Analyst, Handelsbanken

Yeah. What is the actual revenue? That's the question.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Let's stick to the growth rate for now, and then let's see if we can pick up on the actual revenue offline, Rasmus.

Rasmus Engberg
Financial Analyst, Handelsbanken

Cool. Very good. I also wanted to ask you have provided a kind of a new slide in the report, or rather you've updated the slide to not give a range of what the valuation is on page 6 in the quarterly report. I was just wondering whether that is only actually the unlisted asset in there, or does it include things like Babylon and Recursion when you talk about the valuation, just for clarification?

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Good question, Rasmus. That depends on whether you're on page six or if you're back in note four. On page six, the metrics we're showing is the full portfolio, meaning that Babylon is included in value-based care. If you're in the note four version of that table, it's only the private businesses.

Rasmus Engberg
Financial Analyst, Handelsbanken

All right. Thanks. Thanks a lot. Helps. Just finally, how, you know, after these bank collapses, especially in California, is the Market sort of stabilizing after obviously waiting? Are people sitting on their hands? Or what is the general behavior in the Market, if there is any to talk about?

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

Say, like, generally, of course, it's still a very volatile Market and we foresee the waters to be quite, you know, choppy, you know, for the remainder of 2023. Having said that, we also see signs of Investors looking more at the fundamentals. As Samuel mentioned, we've had six, you know, fundraisers in our existing portfolio to valuations that have been priced, you know, half of them by externals on an average 50% higher than our book value. Of course, that in itself is some kind of signal, I think, that Investors are willing to take risk again.

They're looking at the underlying performance rather than just speculating whether Fed will increase or decrease the interest rate. I think that although we've seen a very volatile Q1, we have, at the same time, a feeling that the Investor space is opening up again.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

These, three, that were priced by external, but they were before the bank collapses, right?

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Sorry, Rasmus, before the bank collapses?

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah. The question was the-

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

I'd say they're, I mean, it's a mix. We're not necessarily seeing an effect from the bank collapses on how rounds are being priced, Rasmus, if that's what you're saying?

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Yeah, that was the question, really. If the.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Yeah, no.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

-participation slowed down or something.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

No, no, we haven't.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

No. Okay, cool. Thanks, thanks for taking my questions.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. Now we're going to take our next question. The question comes to line of David Johansson from Nordea. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

David Johansson
Investment Banking Associate, Nordea

Hi there. Good morning. Just two questions from me, the first one being related to Teladoc and the second one with respect to cash burn. Adding to the previous question on the timing of divesting Teladoc, would you say this is mainly an effect of seeing attractive Investment opportunities in the Market? Would you say this is more an effect of extending your own Investment runway and that you see maybe a need to bridge financing in the companies here in the short to medium term? On to the second question. Looking at cash burn, on page nine in the presentation, you show that cash burn is having quite large negative impact in the quarter.

If my calculation is right here, the negative effect should be around SEK 600 million from Q4. Could you elaborate a bit more here what the underlying dynamic is in the companies? You have mentioned previously that cash burn should decrease by around 40% this year compared to last. Is this target still intact? Could you say anything more about the current burn levels in relation to Q4? I'll stop there. Thank you.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

All right. Hi, David, it's Samuel. I think on Teladoc, let's be very clear. The reason why we sold our shares in Teladoc is because we don't necessarily find it long-term attractive. We find a business like Spring Health considerably more attractive from a long-term perspective, and that's why we're moving our capital out. It's, you know, very likely that that stock has a short-term bump as the Market in general sort of gets a bit more positive. We couldn't care less, to be honest. It's about the long-term case and we lost belief in that, and that's why we've sold out.

As relates to burn, no, there's no changes in sort of expectations around burn relative to Q4, other than, again, there's some incremental burn coming from growth being a bit lower than expected in the more consumer-facing businesses. Maybe if, you know, the specifics of your question, could you perhaps repeat that as far as burn goes?

David Johansson
Investment Banking Associate, Nordea

No, I thought it was just a bit higher. I think if I'm remembering correctly, it looks a bit higher compared to previous quarters. I was just wondering if there's a maybe incremental change there from previously. All right. That's all for me then. Thank you very much.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad. Dear speakers, there are no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the conference over to. Please accept my apologies. We just came through one more question. Just give us a moment. We have the last question comes to line of Oskar Lindström from Danske Bank. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Hi. Good morning. Regarding the Silicon Valley Bank failure there and the turbulence in general in these banks, I mean, you came out with a press release sort of on your actions at that time. Is this having any longer-term residual effects on, you know, cash management, how you finance your companies or, you know, your view of where your own balance sheet should be? Thank you.

Samuel Sjöström
CFO, Kinnevik

Sure. Hi, Oskar. No, I mean, as you can imagine, counterparty risk and yield management is a lot higher on the list of to-dos at our companies relative to before this, the collapse of SVB. Now we're very cautious of where our companies store their cash and also having them understand that if you've raised a lot of capital, you know, you can't just let that sit in cash accounts. You need to manage your yield in this type of environment. That's as far as Industries goes. As far as, sort of the cinematic level of cash management, we have a very diversified set of bank relationships already with the larger Nordic banks.

We have some cash in, sort of at hand, to cover our costs, and then we have the rest in the mix of deposits and money Market Investments, again, with, all the larger Nordic banks.

Oskar Lindström
Senior Equity Analyst, Danske Bank

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Georgi Ganev
CEO, Kinnevik

Okay. Thank you very much for listening and for your questions. As a last reminder, we will report our results for the second quarter of 2023 on the 11th of July. Thank you very much. Bye-bye.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

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