Minesto AB (publ) (STO:MINEST)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2025

Apr 30, 2025

Moderator

Hello and welcome to today's broadcast with Minesto, where CEO Martin Edlund will present a report for the first quarter of 2025. After the presentation, there will be a Q&A, so if you have any questions, you can send them in via the form to the right. With that said, I hand over the word to you, Martin.

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

Thank you very much. Hi everyone. It's quite impressive to see the interest in an update from Minesto like this. I think this is a good format that we will keep going with. Unfortunately, today, my colleague and brother in arms, Gustav Kvibling, our CFO, is not available this morning. I will attend to and focus a lot on strategy, content, progress, technology, all the areas that I'm driving in Minesto. We will also have room for quite some questions. I just heard from the organizer here that a lot of questions have come in just lately. I try not to be too lengthy with my run-through to be able to cover as many of those questions as possible.

We'll try to stay within the hour that we have set aside for this. First, on technology and the status of our operations in Vestmanna over the winter and first quarter here. We published in January the results or shared results in general on the large third-party valuation of our production during 2024 with a big commercial scale, D12. I think the main takeaway from that is that the next natural step, as DNV puts it, the next natural step for Minesto is a scale-up in number of units into a Dragon farm aiming for Hestfjord. With our internal work over the first quarter, I think we can just underline that the technology is in really good shape and ready for that scale-up.

If we look at the operations and the work we're doing in Vestmanna, there are basically three areas here, three purposes of this, with the evolution of the technology and being ready. The first one is related to operations. You see this, it looks a bit messy from this drone footage here that you see. In this context, there are a lot of unique steps of handling, of lifting, of moving, of inspecting and testing that needs to be in place and to be scalable for the next phase. I think that we've had all the progress we need up until now in being ready to do this with multiple units for Hestfjord. That operational aspect, including the marine operations, is really, really in a good shape.

You can say, is that anything to talk about? Is that a concern and so forth? We should be aware that no one else is towing megawatt power plants of this type in the world, and no one is doing marine operations with power plants within hours from key site to launch. This is really at the core of the competitiveness for Minesto. We better make sure that those procedures and the supporting technologies are robust and at the performance levels we need them, and they are in place, definitely. On the hardware, the tech, to build six units and do some tweaks to the D12X, which is the next unit, we also believe that we're ready. We've had some small upgrades.

We've had inspections, we have had repairs and service needs, and a lot of experience now in handling, touching, working with the units. All that is also now migrated into the build of the six units for Hestfjord. The third area on demonstration, the obvious goal for us is to do more, and not only with the D12, but also with the smaller units, where we are in discussions on microgrid installations for that unit. That is what we're looking forward to. We will start with a D12, and then we will move also to get smaller units into production, in demonstration production. This is obviously also supportive or more, let's say, more needed from a commercial perspective than from a technology perspective today, let's say.

I think I'll hold it there on the test site and testing, and then move on to the Hestfjord, which is what we're really eager to get going with, to really now go into a commercial demonstration array, to take Minesto forward. We are not just sitting around waiting for project investments and project development to happen. We are working, this is our priority activity in many ways when it comes to hands-on infrastructure design, site development work, site measurements, and also the financial setup around it. Just to comment on a few of those activities that we're involved in, I mean, we've set, and I think we've mentioned that externally also on a few occasions, that we've set a market development company that we call Vretchin, which means the dragon in Faroese.

It is not a conventional special purpose vehicle or special project vehicle. It is a market development company with the rights to develop the tidal market with our technology in the Faroes resides. What we try to do here is also to, let's say, compensate for the fact that this is not just a normal infrastructure investment. I think this is something this sector needs to do better. I think we are at the forefront of that to acknowledge that the risk profile and the setup of a world-first array like this one is not a setup where you can do it in the same way as you do with wind farm number 55,000 in the world. This market setup, those rights and the way we structure it is one part of helping that. We also really want local investors on board with this.

This is a natural resource that should be long-term owned and operated by the Faroes, and from a Faroese perspective, given its huge value for the Faroe Islands. We have also, in this context, decided on and in dialogue with government and our partner SEV, to set it up in a way where we will be able to benefit from the same strong power purchase agreement price level that we have for the test site in Vestmanna. That means that the first 10 MW buildout has a price level that is significantly above market prices in Europe or elsewhere, but at a commercial level from the Faroese perspective. That is a huge strength.

I think that will position the Hestfjord case as the only investment opportunity in the world for a tidal array where there are actually, let's say, commercial terms and not everything based on huge subsidies, that we see in the U.K., which actually our competing technologies need to even be able to make a case. Having said that, of course, we are not, we are not gonna sort of put the opportunity to secure support funding to this aside. The EU is creating a lot of opportunities in this area, and we are definitely there and involved in it. It's a good way of driving business development also because it drives partnerships, it drives, it challenges you to really build business, build a business plan for a case like this.

There is a handful of opportunities for us now in this area where being a Swedish company is an advantage because the Faroe Islands is not always included in those EU-based funding setups. We do more in the Faroes. We are also involved together with SEV, the utility company, to look into grid mix simulations. We have known and we have seen data historically from research and from SEV's own analysis that the tidal case has real serious advantages to really create cost-effective net zero energy for the Faroes. We believe that we have strengthened this case even further and that we will have a story to tell that will be further emphasized in this as we move on.

I think this is, this is at the core of the energy transition debate also globally to really, really be able to hands-on, step by step show that it is possible to reach net zero and build a 100% renewable network that is affordable. I think we can compare with Sweden and other areas. I mean, we have a debate now on how much wind and how much storage. I think we can conclude from a more controllable context as the Faroe Islands that there is the belief in the really high quality wind resource in the Faroes to be able to fix that on its own together with a small hydro, it's simply too costly. The overcapacity and the long-term storage needs makes it very, very difficult to afford it.

Even with tech risks being a novel technology, we believe now that it's fair to say that to reach net zero, the Faroe Islands need the Minesto, the Minesto technology up to 40%-50% of the energy production. This is something that we are showing in numbers and are working on together with SEV now as a part of funding the Hestfjord and really show the economic value of what we're doing. Also, on the same topic, we have seen now from our analysis of hands-on ADCP measurements in Hestfjord, which is equivalent to measuring wind speeds in the wind sector where you can analyze the energy content in the strait that you see here, the nice illustration we have in front of us.

Of course, the more energy that passes through the strait here, the better the business case. There is a significant increase from our real measurements to what we historically have relied on from simulations. This is also really good news for the business case and making it investable. I think some of you, if not all, have also seen that as a part of our Faroe Islands commitment, we have also together with SKF had quite a successful and, as we believe, rather cool, commercial exposure with the Faroe Islands Space Program. I will come back to that, and I even will take some of your time to show you one and a half minutes film from that.

That focus on the Faroe Island context and is also the reason why we are involved in that and do that apart from general exposure is of course to support the Hestfjord investment case. A final comment on Hestfjord is related to manufacturing, but I believe I'll try to move into my next topic. We obviously get from local investors and others get questions around how will you supply six units in the first phase and then another 150-200 units into the Faroe Island context. We have together with suppliers, including SKF, been working on an analysis and a conceptual design of how to manufacture our Dragons.

I think it's fair to say that Minesto's technology has unique competitive advantage in many ways related to handling and operations and its energy conversion performance in the sector. We are also unique in the way that small size, relatively small size, and that it's built on components that can be manufactured at supplier sites at volume. This puts us in a situation where we can do that, where we can streamline batch oriented and flow oriented manufacturing processes. Building kites is not a shipyard one-off operation. This is a huge advantage, because it means we can build volume faster. We don't need bespoke key sites or unique environments for this. We just need to duplicate and migrate a stable best practice system integration and assembly process.

We are looking into doing this in a specific area in Sweden on the West Coast. We have the partners on board to do the first phase of development of this to really be ready to push the button when needed. We already have capabilities to build prototypes with the same suppliers and basically with the same testing and quality assurance. By doing this in a streamlined way and building a small bespoke operation for it, we will be really ready for scale up. This will also lower the risks from the project investor perspective where we can show hands-on how the six first units will be built, tested, and quality assured and even transported for direct installation at site in a very efficient way. We hope to be able to talk more about this as we move on.

Also to underline here that this is not something where Minesto is gonna burden our balance sheet with manufacturing or plant investments. This is build-as-you-grow setups where it's a lot of focus on, let's say, testing the process and not building expensive assets for production. We are not doing it as a small standalone tech startup in this. We're doing it together with really strong global partners that have experience in this type of manufacturing, of course. Growing importance, and I think we're in a good place. That's the manufacturing. Perhaps if you bear with me, for those who haven't seen it, this is a minute or so on communication.

We set sail on this new increased demand for energy has led to a new space race. Global superpowers are competing to control lunar resources. One of the world's smallest nations will now join them with one difference. This space program will never leave Earth. We already have endless lunar power. It's called tidal energy. Our spacecraft won't go up, they'll go down and they'll fly underwater. As tidal streams pass through their turbines, they generate renewable moon energy every day right here on Earth. The space program is a part of the Faroe Islands mission to reach 100% renewable energy by 2030. Join us in making the most of the resources we already have.

Okay, sorry about that, but we are really proud of what we've achieved here together with SKF. It's not for fun. It's for real and for taking Minesto forward.

When you have a novel technology in a novel non-existing industry as ours to reach the broader public, to reach into, into markets where there is a lot of tidal, but limited knowledge and understanding of Minesto and what we do, this is extremely helpful. The response we get is on a level where even if we have expanded on the market side, we have never seen an inflow of requests and interest for what we're doing on this level. Never. We are talking millions and still growing in the number of contacts in different ways. It's also spreading to invitations into different important contexts that are more industry specific. We're a part of the Swedish delegation for the World Expo.

Instead of being in the corner of such an expo, we are centered innovation showcased in the Nordics. We get invitations to IRENA and the important energy forums to keep talking about how valuable this technology is for the global success of energy transition. This is important not just because we are novel and where we are. I think we need to be aware that the first generation systems from tidal and also wave, they have not delivered. That is something that we are overcoming. This helps a lot in that context as well. To reach the sales breakthroughs, we are also working on several markets with step in sales. We talked about that for you who were involved in the year end webinar that we had, talking about an engagement ladder and how we move forward.

All the cases we talk about are alive and kicking and moving forward. I can say that it's fair to say that we expect those processes to be successful, but it's painfully long processes and a lot of work on the customer side to take the first step of engaging with Minesto. Since the beginning of the first quarter, I believe that it's fair to say that there are thousands of hours invested in large companies investigating the opportunities of using Minesto systems locally and in their turfs. We are supporting that and we will turn that into business. With that said, I think I will move over to questions, please.

Moderator

Thank you so much for the presentation here, Martin. The first question here that we got is, what are the biggest operational risks Minesto sees in 2025, especially related to technology, finance, and partnership? How are you working proactively to minimize these risks?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

It's a long, maybe you'll have to help me with some parts of the question as we move on. Starting with tech, I think the most important aspect for tech for Minesto now is to take an order for Hestfjord so we really can build new units. To be fair, with secured funding yesterday, we would have been already in that process today. That is holding us back in that sense because we are ready. Of course, to do demonstration testing and to move on, I think that some risks associated with that are only on really low tech levels.

I mean, you need to repair cables, you will have to have clean foundations where you hook things up. As time passes by, you need to invest in that service infrastructure and so forth. It is really on levels that has nothing to do with the competitiveness or the core value of Minesto's technology. We just want to move on, build new systems, deploy them, and sort of evolve as we grow. When it comes to finance, I think that we would need to keep all options open on how we take Minesto forward financially. The project finance side, the sales of feasibilities, the sales of units into the first Hestfjord case has to be complemented with preparedness for other types of capital injections.

I think it's easy to say that the capital market is in turmoil or there are difficulties around it. I believe that with the way we position Minesto as a true genuine invention that enables energy transition globally, this is not about building a manufacturing plant in the north of Sweden or appealing to, or let's say ask people to invest in something sustainable just because it's sustainable. This is hardcore competitive value for energy transition with local energy security of supply and cost effective energy transition to really deliver value. We are determined to focus on what we can influence, the triggers on sales, on continued development, populating the Hestfjord. By doing that, we believe that we mitigate the risks of not accessing adequate funding. I think that's tech, that's finance.

There was something else also in-

Moderator

Yeah, partnership as well.

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

Yeah, partnerships. Again, I mean, everyone is waiting to get going with Hestfjord basically on our partner side to want to build, build a new unit, use the new setup of manufacturing and testing. I think that the partnership side is the one where the least concerns. And that's been a huge shift over the years for us. We really select partners and working with the best in all aspects of technology today, which is so important for a small company.

Moderator

Thank you so much. Given the recurring delays in previous project, what concrete measurements have Minesto now implemented to ensure that timelines are met? And what, when can we, shareholders expect verified revenue streams?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

Expect verified revenue stream. Yeah. The sales and the breakthrough of sales is, is sort of the enabler of, of the rollout. If you would've asked me, you know, a year ago, I would say that, that, I would expect within a year. What I say now is I expect it within a quarter to, to have sales, you know, in place on some level. And that's the enabler. As soon as we get going, there will be more to come. The Hestfjord case is the most difficult one because it's the first one. The answer is a little bit, you know, as you ask a politician to promise something in this, but I also think that everyone that has been involved in, in, in this kind of pioneering activities, you know, that it's extremely difficult to forecast when the breakthrough will happen. But we've never had a more stable technology.

We've never had as many sales process ongoing and that strong support in getting that job done. I expect it to happen now basically.

Moderator

Thank you. When will the 1.75 MW Dragon go into production?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

Yeah, it's, it's then, I mean, it's not something we are gonna finance on Minesto's balance sheet without having a clear customer context in Hestfjord to start with. We are ready and we are more than ready. We've taken the time we need to prepare, do conceptual design and are waiting for Hestfjord to be ready to take them on.

Moderator

Thank you. Is the 1.2 MW Dragon in the water producing electricity? How is it doing? If not, why is it still on land?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

It's still on, it's not producing at the moment. We are working to get it back into the water as soon as possible.

We have over winter swapped out the tether to extend it and there have been delays that are annoying. That's nothing to do with the core technology. There are other small aspects to it. Just to mention one thing, we are operating at a small scale and using marine operations rarely, especially with the D12 since we had such a long production during 2024. Our local partner, which is sort of the best partner in the world to launch kites, obviously have to take other deals as well. Sometimes when we need marine operational assets at this scale, it's not available locally. It is partly a cost prioritization as well. This will go away when you expand your operations to larger scale. It is not so that there is anything unique with that vessel or the technology.

It's just that they have their home port or home harbor exactly where we are, which makes it so much more cost effective. We need, we need to get back into the water as soon as possible to produce to the grid.

Moderator

Thank you. Two years ago you mentioned on the slide at your AGM that the CFD program in the U.K. was one of your priorities. We haven't heard so much since then. How has it worked out? Did you, you or your partners apply or where's the status there?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

We still have access to our site in Holyhead, in North Wales. The onshore grid infrastructure buildout that was promised by local authorities has been significantly delayed.

We have made an assessment that we will be able to move much quicker in the Faroe Islands than sort of rely on progress there. It is a highly viable case, very interesting commercially, but we are not going to invest in onshore grid infrastructure. That has to be put in place in the same way as in the Faroes. In the Faroes, we get this customized for free all the way to site transformer stations. In the U.K., they are still sort of debating on how to sort those things out. That is why that is on hold.

Moderator

Thank you. What is the timeframe on the initial plan of the 10 MW in Hestfjord?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

As soon as we have initial funding sorted out, we will be able to deploy within, let's say, 2, 2.5 years from that point in time with sales significantly earlier, of course. The order placed as, in association with financial closure as convention in the energy industry.

Moderator

Thank you. Is D12 in work? And if not, why?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

Yeah, we had that question, so I'll pass on that one.

Moderator

Yes. Are Minesto going to analyze Indonesia's resources without USAID?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

We, the consultancy company in Indonesia that has been doing the work with USAID funding, is still in operation. The challenge is then, of course, to find new financial resources to do that. The good news is that we can access that information much more easily, the work they've done.

It would've been much better with USAID still in place, working on it. It is a priority for us and we will not finance it on our own. That's not within our scope. We are working really hard with commercial partners and with even the Swedish government to get that job going quicker.

Moderator

Thank you. Are Minesto, sorry, who are the potential owners of Hestfjord phase I?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

Potential owners will be Minesto, SEV, local industry, including fish farming and the existing energy actors locally. On top of that, we would really like to see some of our strong technology partners. If we really can put the wishlist, it would also be good to have one of the global project developers in to use this as a springboard for buildout in other parts of the world.

The core ownership, we see that it's gonna be Faroe Island actors and of course initially Minesto.

Moderator

Thank you. DNV has inspected the power plant. What is the next step? Must DNV do a certification before SEV can fully integrate the power plants in their system?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

No. The current system that operates in Vestmanna is fully integrated into the grid of the Faroe Islands with grid code compliant electricity integrated all the way into the grid management system in Tórshavn. When we operate, there are, I think there are five sources of energy in the energy mix in the Faroes from hydro, oil, wind, solar, some small biogas, and then also tidal.

It's already where it should be, but there will be a need to go through different types of technology verifications and, in the longer run, certifications, of course, to get insurance levels right and to get everything productified, so to speak. Not a necessity to build the first phase of Hestfjord.

Moderator

Thank you. How long will your cash last? Will a new share issue be needed?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

We keep all doors open. I will not comment on that question, for obvious reasons. I don't think that I'm even allowed to do it actually.

Moderator

Thank you. What time in continue running mode will convince the customers that the program can be trusted?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

I'd say that for the smaller D4s, we need 3-4 months continuous operation. For the D12, we've already had enough continuous production.

It's not just a matter of, of, let's say to keep going with it to create confidence. The four months of, of continuous installation is, is enough there, I'd say. The continuous electricity to grid with systems in the water is, is extremely helpful for all the commercial processes. That's, I mean, it's, it's no way around that.

Moderator

Thank you. What solution do you see if the anchoring gets stuck and can't be loosened?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

Ooh, interesting. It theoretically, it's really, really difficult to see how it can get stuck because it's a pretension system. You, if you lose that pretension, you will, you will loosen the, the, the mechanical connectors in a way where, where, I mean, the, the, the risk would, would be the other one. If, if everything then falls apart, it might come loose in some strange theoretical reasoning.

There are scenarios where, I mean, in an emergency context where it can be, you know, completely stuck for some reason I can't figure out. And then you just have, then you have to cut the cable. I think this is a discussion beyond the scope of this seminar, I believe. That sense.

Moderator

Yes. Moving on to the last question we received there. I know you answered a lot about the Dragons here, but are the other two smaller Dragons producing electricity?

Martin Edlund
CEO, Minesto

Not at the moment. They have also been upgraded and we have not prioritized them over winter. They are highly relevant for the discussions that we have on microgrid buildouts, not only in the Faroes, but to start with in the Faroes, but then in some other context as well.

So, the goal is to keep using them and keep testing with them as well.

Moderator

Thank you so much, Martin, for the presentation here and answering all our questions. I wish you a pleasant Valborg here when it starts. Same to you at ho me watching.

Thank you. Thank you everyone for listening and your patience. Have a nice weekend.

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