Welcome to the Mips Q2 Report 2023. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answer session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing star five on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to the speakers, CEO Max Strandwitz and CFO Karin Rosenthal. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. My name is Max Strandwitz. I am the CEO of Mips. With me today, I also have our CFO, Karin Rosenthal. We will take you through the Mips Q2 result presentation. If we start with the first quarter and the key highlights of the quarter. We did flag already in last report that we were expecting soft demand in the second quarter. Indeed, we did see soft demand in the quarter, which impacted both sales and profit in the second quarter, as expected. Net sales was down with 51%. If we adjust for currency effect, we saw a development of -53%.
We do expect a gradual increase in demand and assess that Q3 will continue to be challenging, but we see a stronger Q4 ahead of us, and we do expect to deliver growth for the last six months of the year. We see a strong development in our safety category. Moto have a challenging start of the year. However, we have still full year expectation of delivering good growth in that category. We see a strong development in market shares in all our key markets, and it's really important for us that we separate what actually happened in the market and what is the effect of having too much inventory in the different channels. When we look at all the key markets, we are continuing to increase market shares. We do see excellent performance when it comes to penetrating more brands and helmets with Mips.
Of course, really good when we now get out of this inventory situation and can start delivering products to the market again. We are, of course, believing in our long-term plan, and I'm really happy that our board continued to support our ambition, and that we are allowed to continue to invest behind our strategic initiatives, which will position us really, really well when we want to deliver future growth. We remain confident in delivering on our long-term strategy and the financial targets that we have set. If we then go to next page. In Bike, we see gradual recovery of the bicycle market. It was indeed a challenging quarter in sports, with a decrease of net sales of 53%. The soft start of the season in Bike slowed down the inventory improvement. Sales in many geographies is still above pre-pandemic numbers.
We do see softer performance in Snow versus prior year in the quarter. Our customers' cash flow optimization led to more volumes in H2 versus prior years. Of course, cash is more expensive. Everyone wants to produce closer to the season. We still see good performance full year and, of course, good momentum in our Snow business. Retail inventory, helmet, or levels in helmets in bicycle are normalizing. Our customers' inventory levels are still high due to the slow start of the season, but we expect to be back to normal by the end of the year, and our long-term positive outlook for Bike remains. We do expect that more people will ride bikes, more people will wear helmets around the world, and we believe that we can gain market share also going forward.
We then go to next page, we switch to the Motorcycle category. Challenging quarter again in Moto. Full year ambition of good growth remains. We did see soft development in the quarter in Moto, with a decrease of sales of 42%. Moto markets are indeed slower in general, but not to the extent that we have seen in Bike. Major impact from the new implementation of ECE 22.06. A lot of retailers first want to clean out all the old stock that they have. Just as a reminder, from first of January, you are not allowed to produce any new helmets not complying to the new standard. Of course, a switching effect to the new standard, but not something that we see as an issue long term. We also see some change in buying patterns. No change in outlook. Strong interest in the category.
We will have a lot more new customers being launched during the autumns, also significant increase in the amount of models equipped with Mips in this category. If we switch to next page, in Safety, we continued on our strong development in line with ambitious plans we have. We are following the plan that we set up. We see strong development in the U.S. market with a lot of tendering wins that we have seen, really start to see that we get good momentum there. Also happy to see that we have gained listings with Mips-equipped helmet at several of the major distributors in Europe, which of course, also will generate volumes going forward.
We have an ambitious autumn ahead of us with the two largest fairs, of the year taking place in October, with NSC in the U.S. and A+A in Germany, with great launches of both new brands and new products that will be released to the market. We then go to next page. If we look at the development of net sales in our categories, soft performance in sport with a decrease of 53%, fully explained by the really soft performance that we saw in Bike. In moto, we do see soft performance, but expect to be back on track by the end of the year, and in safety, still small numbers, but really strong performance in terms of sales growth. With that, I hand over to our CFO, Karin Rosenthal.
Good morning. I'm Karin Rosenthal, CFO, Mips. I will take you through the financial part of the presentation. We saw a soft development in the quarter with a decrease in net sales by 51%. Adjusting for FX due to strong dollar versus SEK, sales decreased with 53% organically. Gross profit decreased with 53%. We saw a gross margin of 70% versus 73.4% last year. The decrease was due to higher share of fixed COGS as a result of decreased net sales. In OPEX, we continue to invest in our strategic priorities. We saw a negative impact of SEK 2 million from FX under other operating costs. EBIT was down 78% to SEK 23 million, an EBIT margin of 22.6%.
We look at our financial KPIs, -53% organic growth, a 23% EBIT margin, and SEK 9 million in operating cash flow in the quarter. We turn to next page and look at the development for the first six months, net sales decreased with 45%. Adjusting for FX, sales decreased 48% organically. Gross profit decreased with 47%. We had a gross margin of 70.4% versus 73% last year. Decrease due to higher share of fixed COGS as an effect of decreased net sales. In OPEX, we continue to invest in our strategic priorities, R&D and marketing. EBIT was down 77% to SEK 38 million, with an EBIT margin of 20.2%. We had a negative operating cash flow the first six months due to tax payments relating to the 2021 profit.
We look at the financial KPIs, -48% organic growth, 20% EBIT margin, and -SEK 33 million in operating cash flow. We turn to next page. We are now on page 9, balance sheet and cash flow. We have a strong cash position with cash and cash equivalents of SEK 356 million. We paid out SEK 144 million in dividend in May, corresponding to SEK 5.5 per share. Important to remind you that Mips don't hold any loans. Cash flow in the quarter was SEK 9 million. We have an equity ratio of 85%. Over to you, Max.
Thank you, Karin. If we then summarize the quarter and the first six months of the year, challenging times, and indeed, it was a soft quarter, but our outlook remains the same. I think it's also quite important to point out that what we are experiencing is not to a lack of demand, but more effects of the COVID unwind. Like I said in the beginning, we are gaining market share across the world. We see fantastic penetration on Mips, just looking at Tour de France, which is, of course, the most prestigious bicycle race in the world, or the bicycle tour. There, 71% of the riders are using Mips-equipped helmet. We then look at the women's tour, that will start in soon.
There, they're actually at 87%, so really strong momentum and a good demonstration of the penetration on Mips in Bike. Really happy when we are out of this COVID unwind and really can show what we are doing. We do expect a gradual recovery of the Bike market. Retail inventory are normalizing. We see most markets actually already normalized in Q2, and we see that by Q3, it should be fully normalized when it comes to retail inventory. We do see, because of the slow start of the year, that some of our customers still have higher inventory than they want, but we expect that to be fully normalized by the end of the year. Higher customer interaction, significant number of new helmet models to be released when the inventory returns to normal levels. Good customer momentum.
We are still doing almost 1 new helmet equipped with Mips per working day, which is, of course, a fantastic number. We are investing in our business to make sure that we can deliver on strategic priorities. That's why you see higher investment ratios in both R&D and in also marketing, because, of course, we want to make sure that we have the right position when things are now turning around. We do expect Q3 to remain challenging, but a stronger Q4. We do expect to gradually return to growth in the last six months of 2023, and we are confident to deliver on our long-term targets. With that, I open up for questions.
If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Emmanuel Rosset from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Good day, Max and Karin. Thank you for taking my question, questions. Starting maybe on the commentary regarding bike retailers and inventory, which obviously has been the big focus the past 12 months. Could you maybe shed some more light on what you have seen during the quarter, both on different price segments, also, geographical aspects, and also do you think that improvements include both independent bike dealers or mainly larger retailers, et cetera? Thank you.
I think, I mean, you were also at Eurobike, so of course you got the opportunity to talk to the Bike brands yourself. Indeed, as we also say in the report, we have seen a gradual recovery throughout the quarter. I think everyone was a little bit surprised of the soft spot due to cold and wet weather in both Europe and U.S. When the season started, it actually started quite well. We did see gradual improvement throughout the quarter, and so on. Of course, that started to normalize the inventory. I think the situation is quite patchy, depending on which market you look at. If you talk, first of all, when it comes to the larger retailers, I don't know actually any of the larger retailers that have not normalized the inventory situation.
They normally have access to more data. They normally quite quickly to react. There, I would say, that it is much more a normal situation already now. When it comes to the IBD, very much depends on IBD by IBD. Most of them, that we see have already returned to normal situation, and by the end of Q3, I don't see anyone carrying much more stock than normal. I think we did see a lot of sell-outs in May, and also that sell-out was successful. I would say most of them already in Q2, and by the end of Q3, we expect everything to be normalized.
Perfect. Thank you, Max. That's, Max, that's very clear. Also, if you maybe can shed some light on, I think it was 2 days ago, the e-commerce company, Bike24, came out with a profit warning on their Bike segment on weak consumer sentiment, also, the e-commerce market overall, but also stating high inventory levels where they saw this trend continued into the third quarter of 2023. Could you maybe give us some flavor here or what read across we should do to their profit warning?
I mean, indeed, Bike24 did send out a statement on a more gloomier expectation going forward. They have previously guided that they saw a decline in the first six months, but they will return back to growth in the last six months of the year. Now the revised guidance from their side is a decrease of somewhere around -5% to -10%. For me, that's not actually a change of reality, because if you look at the performance year-to-date on the two key markets, which really matters, U.S., there we see a decrease of somewhere around 10%-15% of the market in general. If you look at Europe, it's more towards 20% decline. That has actually not changed.
I think what they are really or did maybe bet a little bit more on was that the market will start growing again. I don't see that anyone is betting on that for 2023. I think it's more maybe an adaptation to reality. The German market, which is, of course, the main importance for them, is quite challenging. I understand that they continue to see a decrease. I think the difference, if you try to link that versus Mips, is that we are a company that is manufacturing. The growth that we will see in 2023 will not come for from repeat orders for the 2023 season. Most of that is already gone from a Mips point of view, because you need to manufacturing it and send it to the market.
The growth that we will see is from the helmet that is produced from next season. That's why we also are more confident on Q4, because that's when most of the helmets for 2024 season is going to be manufactured. We expect everything to be back to a much more normal situation. Hopefully, that answers your question.
Yeah, that's very clear. Thank you, Max. Maybe a last question on the bike segment here. Do you see any other risk of bike demand being postponed for the 2024 season here? Now, as you mentioned, that you sell in the 2023 season into the 2024 season when it comes to bikes. Do you see any other risk of bike demand being postponed?
No, I think, I mean, we have already communicated a more cautious view on the second half of the year, also taking in effect a more cautious market and so on. We said that Q3 will be more challenging. We expect to see a stronger Q4, and of course, that's what we see at the moment. I think when you also look at the inventory situation and also I think the end market performance, of course, even though it's challenging times, a lot of market is still above pre-pandemic levels. Even if we talk about sell-out numbers in the market of somewhere around 10%-20%, of course, that still requires that there is a lot of inventory that is being depleted. Of course, all those retailers need to have new products and so on.
Of course, our estimate that we have now with a softer Q3, challenging Q3, stronger Q4 remains, and that, of course, is based on the best assumption that we know.
Great, thank you. Last question from my side. Regarding safety segment, this is the only growing segment in the quarter. I think year-to-date, you have a turnover now of around SEK 7 million. What you're feeling there? Are you able to achieve a turnover of around SEK 20 million-SEK 30 million by the end of 2023 there, and have you seen any larger impact yet from the distributors in Europe, as you mentioned in the presentation?
I think, I mean, you're right. We have seen a nice tick-up in terms of sales in the safety segment. We did estimate that we will hit somewhere around SEK 20 million-SEK 30 million, and we're actually tracking exactly on that. You will see a gradual improvement of the safety category quarter by quarter. Of course, really happy about that development. The listings that we received were mainly in May and June, and of course, we haven't seen the effect of that, but we will see that going forward. Of course, we expect some effects of that, but it has not been seen yet.
Perfect. Thank you very, very much, Max and Karin. That was all for me now. Thank you.
Thank you, Emmanuel.
The next question comes from Adela Dashian from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Max and Karin. Just a follow-up, firstly, on the what you're seeing in the Bike sub-segments. You mentioned this lag effect versus what the other, you know, what retailers are currently experiencing and how end users are behaving. How far in advance helmet manufacturers place orders with you, and when is your expectations that you will be experiencing the same type of, I guess, pick up in sales that many other market participants, such as Thule are currently reporting?
Yeah. I think that's a very good question, and of course, as you have seen, some companies is already reporting, and they report stronger sales than they have seen before. Of course, what is happening now is that the retail inventory in many places are back to normal. When you have normal inventories, then you start ordering again from the customers, and that's why you see some positive indications in the industry. We, of course, know the same. We, of course, see the same. Also, our customers is talking about the same thing, that they now started to get repeated orders. The number of orders is increasing, and also the size of the orders is increasing. No difference versus the company that has reported versus what our customer sees and so on. Of course, really promising to see that indication.
When it comes to Mips, what we see is we get an order of our products somewhere around three-six months before it will hit the market. Given that we are already in soon, end of July, even if we get an order today, it will not be into the market by earliest, somewhere around November, December. That's why we believe that the orders we will get is for next year. Next year, it means that they will be delivered somewhere around Q1 and Q2, which means that we also see a much more normal bicycle situation then.
All right, got it. Then maybe also on the profitability in Q2 and the heavy investments that you're making currently in order to facilitate growth in the future. If you were to, I guess, the timing effect of that as well, how much longer are you expected to make these heavy investments? What would be the more normalized run rate, I guess, from 2024 and onwards?
I think, I mean, that's a good question, and I will turn it around a little bit because it's actually not the investments that are wrong. We are actually following the plan that we have set up behind our strategic priorities. We continue to invest roughly with the same pace and increase that we have done before, because, of course, we want to be able to facilitate growth. The only thing that has changed is the top line, because, of course, if you invest more and the top line doesn't come, then you will have an effect of that. If you look at the quarter, specifically, both in R&D and in marketing, if we isolate marketing costs from the selling expenses, both of them are at 9%. Of course, if you decrease with 50%, you get an effect from that.
We have said long term, that we will stay at somewhere around 5% investment when it comes to R&D, and closer to 7% when it comes to marketing. When growth is normalizing again, and we are more back to historic numbers and delivering on our ambition, you see much lower ratios. I would say nothing wrong with the way we are investing or spending. We do that because, of course, it's the right thing to do. We are delivering a lot of new product innovations. We are delivering a lot new projects to the market with new Mips-equipped helmets, and we need to do that in order to really be well-positioned when things turn around. Nothing wrong on the spending. The growth just need to come in order to have the right ratios.
That makes sense. Finally, a question on just that your strategic targets, and your 2027 net sales targets. I guess many on this call would agree that at this point in time, it seems a bit too ambitious to reach it.
Mm
... given that you just have, 1 year behind you of negative sales growth. 2023 will most likely also not hit the positive, growth max. How comfortable are you with that target as you prepare for it today? At what point, I guess, would you be, looking at revising it downwards?
Yeah
what are the big risks here?
Yeah, I think, I mean, first of all, it's really, really important to isolate what happens on the market at the moment and the COVID unwind, because what is happening there is more that too much inventory, our customers is not ordering, and then, of course, you see a soft performance in our P&L. We normally go back to, first of all, has our opportunities changed? Has our outlook on the opportunities changed? Actually, it hasn't. We still see exactly the same market as we have seen before. We see exactly the same opportunity, and of course, that's what we are delivering against. When we launched our strategic targets about one year ago, a lot of people accused us from being low balling and putting too low expectations. Now we are challenged against other things.
Of course, from us as a company, we constantly review if our targets are still relevant, if there is something that has changed, because, of course, things change. There are things that happen that either you can overshoot the target or undershoot the target, and if you remember our previous target, we saw that we could overshoot that, and of course, that's an ambition that you then need to change. If we see it relevant to change our target, we will do that, and that's a discussion we have ongoing with our board to make sure that we guide the market in the most accurate way that we see.
Okay, but, to just to conclude that, you are still comfortable at this point in time that you will achieve the SEK 2 billion targets?
Yes. Otherwise, we will need to go out to the market and communicate something else. I mean, the bicycle industry, we still see it as relevant. We still see the size of the market as the same as before. Nothing changed in terms of the snow industry. Motorcycle, yes, it is challenging, but we do see that we return back to the growth. On safety, which is actually the biggest growth opportunity that we have at the moment, we're actually tracking exactly on the plan that we set up. If there are things that we need to change, I can assure you that we will do that.
All right. That's reassuring. Then just lastly, if I may, given that you are obviously the largest player in your niche, I would assume that your competitors, alternative technologies are experiencing the exact same headwinds that you currently are. Do you see yourselves coming out of this even stronger? Like, the, I guess, the runway to get to your level has expanded even more throughout the difficulties, or is competition catching up at any point?
Yeah, it depends on what you actually mean on competition. I have probably a little bit different view on a competitor versus what you have, but I think I can answer both of them. When I look at competitor, I look at 94%-95% of the market that we don't have at the moment. Are we outperforming that market? Yes, we do. When it comes to what you probably refer to is products or technology that address rotational motion, or at least say that it address rotational motion, which is somewhere around 10% of our total position, of course, we don't see them having the same kind of traction when it comes to new customers, new products on the market, new helmets that will be equipped with their technology.
Yes, I would say we are outpacing both of them by far.
Excellent. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from Karl Hedberg from Carnegie. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning, guys. A couple of questions from my side. I came in a bit late here, so maybe this question was already addressed. With talking about this ambition of yours, of growing your sales here, full year 2023 versus 2022, I assume, given the communication here today and the numbers, that this assumption of yours is maybe changed a bit. You know, should we use the base here, Q1, Q2, and look at your historical seasonality with that base, or how should one reason going into H2?
Yeah. Previously, we had an ambition of delivering growth for the full year of 2023. That has now changed to growth for the last six months of the year.
Okay. Thank you.
Thanks.
I have to ask here on, sort of the overall discussion on inventories. I know we're talking about, or using this terminology of normalized inventories, but, sort of what's your view on normalized inventories here post the pandemic? I guess, or what's the comparative basis, that pre-pandemic levels or... I guess now, given the working capital basis of retailers, and retailers having been burnt through this whole inventory cycle there, I would assume, given also now that lead times and supply chain disruptions have improved, that, you know, maybe that inventory basis structurally going forward should be lower than what we've seen historically. Is that also what you're sharing, or what's your view on that?
No, I think, I mean, that's a very good question. There is a couple of things that I think is important to notice, that, of course, the market is bigger than it was pre-pandemic. If we look at the total market of Bike, we expect it to be bigger than it was pre-pandemic. There were just new numbers on the number of riders in the U.S. market, for instance. It was the highest number since 2002, when they actually started the measurement, and they were close to 50 million active riders in the U.S., which is, of course, a fantastic number. We see that commuting in Europe is also increasing, and we expect that the head Bike helmet market will continue to grow. Of course, we don't see that at the moment.
I think the best assumption today for the rest of 2023, when we talk about normalized inventory levels, is going back to prehistoric, pre-pandemic number, which is 2019, and that's what every one of our partner is referencing. You are right when it comes to lead times and so on, much more back to normal. You don't have the long queue when it comes to transport and shipping and so on. That has also normalized. Of course, also capacity in the factories, because there is a lot more installed capacity also after COVID, which also means that you get access quicker to production. I think that pre-pandemic inventory levels for 2023 is probably the right number.
Of course, as we go forward in 2024 and onwards, I do expect that inventory levels will increase a little bit.
Yeah.
Okay. Very well. Thank you for that clarification. I had a question on the impact here from the ECE 22.06 here in Motorsport Q3, as you've been talking about here on the call. Just curious if you could provide maybe any sort of guidance or your guess, what the impact has been on your sales from that isolate here in Q3? I guess the comparative base Q1, Q2 last year is quite similar in absolute numbers.
Yeah.
You know, just understanding the underlying momentum here, given that sales has unchanged here Q1, Q2 this year would be helpful.
Of course, you will see a double-digit effect from the ECE. What that has to do with is that since you are not allowed to produce any new helmets, we're not complying to the new standard since 1st of January. Of course, they're only producing the new type of helmets. Inventory in the channel is still with some of the ECE 22.05, none of the retail or none is a big word, but a lot of the retailers don't want to take in the new compliance standard because then no consumer wants to buy the old one and so on. That is a clean out that needs to be done. Really difficult to pinpoint exact what was the impact of that number, it is a double-digit effect, of course, quite an impact on the comparator numbers.
Then the other effect that we also saw is that normally, preseason orders are in Q2 for Motorsport, and that's the preseason orders that will be delivered in late 2023 and beginning of 2024. Those were postponed into Q3, and of course, you will see an effect of that. That is not a sales missed or anything, but something that actually will come back, and that's why we are also a little bit more confident on that we will return to good growth also in Motorsport.
Okay, very well, thank you. Just finally, I know you don't, you know, want to quantify the outlook, exactly on the numbers and, things like that. You know, given the comparative base we're facing now from Q3 and onwards, and the development in Q3 last year, would it be possible to talk anything about, maybe the growth that you've seen here in the first week, or I should say, development in the first weeks of July? You know, you're talking about growth here on the second half, but that, you know, obviously gives room for quite wide interpretations.
Yeah. No, and of course, we are up to a lot easier comps when it comes to growth numbers and so on. We will, and we have, of course, not changed our policy on giving estimate or guidance. What I can say, of course, is that given that we don't have the same comparators, it would be very surprising if we see the same numbers as we saw in Q2. Of course, we'd still see challenging numbers in terms of Q3, where we of course, are facing lower comparators, but of course, we'll see a gradual improvement in the quarter, and that's, of course, also what we are seeing. When we come back to Q4, we will see good growth again.
Okay, thank you very much. That was all from me. Thank you, guys.
Thank you, Carl.
The next question comes from Daniel Thorsson, from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead.
I think we have covered all or most of the questions regarding bike and inventory. I'll skip those. First one, given your strong net cash position and that you can't really invest yourself out of the current weakness in the bike market, which relies much more to the market, in your view, at least, are there other opportunities arising in the market to acquire anything out of interest and put the money to work, in your view?
Yeah, thank you, Daniel. Yes, I think, I mean, we are investing ourselves into the future because, of course, we see a really relevant market to address. We can never invest to fight a consumer trend, because, of course, what we're seeing at the moment has actually nothing to do with Mips. If you actually looked versus competition, we are outperforming the market and so on. There we're more saying, like, we see a long-term ambition in Bike, which we share with most company in the industry, and that's what we are investing for. That's more long-term investment. I think, I mean, we are scanning the market for acquisitions, if there is interesting things to acquire.
Of course, what you see at the moment, most of the open targets that are out there, a lot of them need refinancing, and they need refinancing, of course, for a good reason. It is a challenging market. Of course, what we are looking at as a company is more something that we will complement at our offering. If we find something interesting and that will complement our offering or strengthen our delivering versus the strategy we have set up, we would be really interested at the moment, there is nothing big that we see that we can acquire at the moment, that will really do that.
Okay, I see. Secondly, on recruitment, where are you targeting or trying to add more people to gain market shares in your different verticals and also geographically? Are you looking for more salespeople in safety, for example, or are you happy with the Bike organization?
Yeah, I mean, we are investing quite a lot. If you also look at where we are today, we just passed 100 employees, which is actually up 35% versus a year ago. We're adding a lot of resources, especially on the engineering side. Like I said, we had a really high project momentum. We need to do more Mips-equipped helmet, and of course, we need to have resources to do that. We are also expanding our R&D function to be able to deliver on our new strategy. When it comes to the sales side, we have increased our sales organization in safety quite a lot. What we are doing at the moment is looking for additional people on the U.S. market, because, of course, that's a big geography, and we need to have more boots on the ground there.
There you will see more people, and we also see that the European market is also really increasing for us. There we are adding more people. On the bicycle part, there we have quite a lot of people already. We already have the key brands, and it's more of a penetration game. There, we actually don't need to recruit a lot more people. Engineering really need a lot, both in terms of implementing new customer projects, but also doing R&D, and then on the sales side, where it strategically makes sense.
Yeah, I see. I see. Thank you very much. That's it for me now.
Thank you, Daniel.
The next question comes from Karri Rinta from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Thanks for taking my question. Not surprisingly, I will be asking questions about the same topics that we have discussed. Firstly, about the short-term outlook. You're saying that the retailer inventories should have normalized by the end of the quarter. Your customers, the helmet manufacturers, still have a higher inventory. I'm just a bit puzzled about where will the growth or where will the new orders come from? In one scenario, retailers and helmet manufacturers might be perfectly happy going into next season with normal or even lower than normal inventories, given that the cost of money and the uncertainties about the consumer behavior. Who is investing into sort of building inventory ahead of 2024 season?
Yeah, I hope quite a lot, because otherwise they will not have a lot of products to sell during 2024. I think also, as I said before, we don't bet on that we will see a lot more replenishment orders for 2023. That's why we also indicate that Q3 is softer than we expected and more challenging than we expected. Of course, it was a soft start of the season and so on. When we go into 2024, then, of course, we expect the markets to pick up. As we said, retail inventory is already almost back on normalized level. We expect that all the brands have cleaned out their remaining inventory, and if they don't produce anything during Q4, they will not have anything to sell in Q1 and Q2 next year.
If they expect to sell nothing during Q1 and Q2 next year, they will not place any orders for us in Q4. That, of course, is what we share with them. We sit down with most of the customers, what is their production plan? We talk to the factories in China, how are they staffing up in order to meet demand, and so on. That's what we base our assumption on. It's not like it's an inventory betting from us, it's more what will our customers buy and what's their view on 2024, and that's what we put into our plans.
Okay, just to clarify, you're using the word assumption. It's not hard orders that you have in your backlog for Q4?
No, because normally we have a time of somewhere around 1-45 days on our product. That's why we work on a forecast. I think, given the uncertain times that we have seen in Bike, a forecast is still an assumption, but that's the buy plan that our customers send to the factories in China of what they plan to produce. That's exactly the same numbers that we base on our assumption, because, of course, the numbers is also shared by us or shared to us, sorry.
All right. That's very helpful. About the long-term outlook or the ambition of SEK 2 billion sales by 2027. Backing out the safety and leaving that aside, sort of ex-safety, that would imply some SEK 1.5 billion in sales in 2027, and today, ex-safety, you have maybe SEK 500 million run rate.
Mm.
What's driving that tripling, given that, as you say, Tour de France, already almost 100% penetration, that's a very small target group, of course. U.S. awareness is high, yes, and at the same time, U.S. commuting is never going to be a thing there, so it's pretty much the same target group that you're selling. In Europe, commuting is growing, and that will be one of the structural drivers. What are the new use cases, new geographies, new pockets of growth that will drive that tripling in sales outside the safety market?
Yeah. I think that's a very good question, and I think, I mean, the run rate that you see today, if you triple that, then I think you will be disappointed by just having an assumption that the run rate is the normal run rate that we see today. Of course, it isn't, with a 50% decrease of our sales, so it's more the effect of the inventory situation. Of course, when we look at our sales and the assumption that we have put in, and indeed it is an assumption, is that there is a couple of things that we would drive our growth going forward. The most important one is, of course, the penetration journey that we need to do in Europe. In Europe, we are only at 10% penetration, a little bit more than 10%.
Of course, the first assumption is that we get it to 50%, where U.S. market is today of our addressable market. We started on that journey already a couple of years ago. We have all the customers, before the sharp decline in bike, we were actually growing with around 100% on the bicycle market in Europe, and we expect to return to really strong numbers there. That, of course, will generate a lot of growth. Also, given that the size of the addressable market in U.S. and Europe is very much the same. The second part is that, of course, we believe that we can increase the penetration rate also on the U.S. market. Today, it's 50%. We believe that we can get it up a couple of notches.
Of course, we also had a strategic ambition to launch products also in the lower price segment, which we call the mass market. Of course, there is a big opportunity. I don't think that we will be really dominant when it comes to the mass market, but at least we have an opportunity to get a double-digit penetration there. Of course, there is a lot of volume to go for. The Snow market, even though we don't think that will grow at all over time, we think that Snow will be a sport that is restricted to few. We believe that the market will stay unchanged, but we can still continue that penetration, and that will also generate some numbers.
We have a good position in equestrian, and there, of course, we had a fantastic growth rate last year, and we have a fantastic growth rate also this year, and see a really good opportunity, even though that's only a total opportunity of 2 million helmets, is still something that will generate growth. Then, of course, we have our motorcycle segment, where we have three different legs in terms of, or pillars of that growth journey. One, is, of course, to continue our penetration when it comes to MX, where we have a very strong position today. It's also to establish ourselves in street. The third one is, of course, to also make sure that we can deliver growth when it comes to e-scooters and so on.
We have projects for all of them, and that's what's going to generate the growth going forward, if we exclude safety.
All right. That's helpful to understand the underlying assumptions. Just one observation, I mean, you're saying that the run rate of what is the normal level of sales? I mean, it's now down 50% compared to last year, organic sales, of course, last year's numbers were elevated by this inventory buildup that was way above the run rate.
Yes.
That's why.
Yeah, I think when you see the bump in 2024, we can much more talk about what is the run rate of a much more normal situation.
All right. Looking forward to that. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Gary.
The next question comes from Carl Oscar from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. To be fair, all my questions have been addressed at this point. Nothing to add from me. Thank you.
Okay. We will just wish you a great remaining part of the summer.
There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.
I think we did get one questions when it comes to an email, and that's from John Gilmour at Martin Currie or Currie. "Moving away from the short-term inventory dynamics, can you spend some time about the confidence in long-term targets?" I think we have done a little bit of that. "What do you regard as the key inflection point in delivering in both safety and sport?" Of course, when it comes to the inflection point, I think in sport, I don't think there is a lot more things that we see needed to happen because, of course, when it comes to the position on the U.S. market, really strong position, still gaining a lot of market share. We have all the customers that we need to deliver on that journey.
When it comes to the European market, of course, we have onboarded a lot of the remaining European customers. Also there, we have the customers that we need in order to deliver on that plan. From a customer point, there is not an inflection point. There's more, now we see that an inventory situation has normalized. We can deliver all the new products that has been delivered on the last year, and of course, will be great to bring new innovations to the market and start to generate growth again in the sports category. When it comes to safety, there, of course, it's a new category. It started only three years ago. Of course, we started from no base at all, but there, of course, we have generated a lot of interest. We have 13 brands which we are working with today.
There will be more brands launching during the autumn. We have two big fairs coming up. There we really start to see that we have the traction, we need in order to achieve the plan. U.S. market is working really well for us. We have started to win a lot of the tenderings with Mips-equipped helmet, and we see really that the users and the buyers are getting it. Also in Europe, similar thing. Need more brands. They are coming on board. We also start to see that we are really getting accepted also by the major distributors in Europe, both in the important Nordic market, but we also see the same in Germany and U.K. and so on. Those are important building blocks.
At the moment, when it comes to safety, we are tracking on the plan that we set up and not really an inflection point to be met as such. Hopefully, that answers the question. Okay, I think no more written questions or any questions online. If not, we close this call of the second quarter and speak to you again during Q3 results call. Have a nice summer. Thank you, everyone, for listening in.