Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to NIBE Q3 2021 Results Presentation. Throughout the call, all participants will be in listen-only mode, and afterwards, there will be a Q&A session. Today, I am pleased to present Gerteric Lindquist, CEO, and Hans Backman, CFO. Please begin your meeting.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Well, we will organize this presentation as before. We start to present our report in relatively few minutes, and then it's open for questions and hopefully good answers, and we will try to end the meeting at 12 o'clock. Thank you very, very much for calling in. I start with Gerteric talking here now, and we are of course very pleased to note a very strong first nine months this year. The order inflow has been very, very strong and as before, it is very much the sustainability profile that is benefiting us when it comes to the good order inflow.
Also something that happened during the pandemic, where people have started to refurbish their homes in a way that perhaps haven't seen in the more recent years. As good as that is, we're also noting, of course, as we write in the report, that our you know, supply chains have been disturbed. It seems like our sub-suppliers, not only in this industry, but in most industries, as we understand it, have not really been able to keep up with the demand. Of course, we are a little bit surprised ourselves to a point, so we can't only blame sub-suppliers.
I think that we also have to realize that we could have been more accurate perhaps, or more bold in forecasting things, so we shouldn't only throw stones at our sub-suppliers. Nevertheless, it seems like they have not been able to keep up with the demand. It's not only the production, it's only the shipping side, as we all know, that is not only delayed, but is also very costly. On top of that, of course, we have those sharp price increases. It's impossible for any manufacturer, I think, to speculate in price increases.
We, of course, have to observe what kind of prices we will be hit by, and then eventually we have to increase our prices. There's always gonna be a delay. We also see that, of course, in our report, that we've been hit hard by the price increases, whereas we still have some time to go before we have fully compensated for that. If you look at the numbers, of course, the strong growth, organic, and we've had some headwind there with the Swedish currency still.
Of course, it was a very, sort of a weak situation during the pandemic, and it has now strengthened. That, of course, also a little bit cumbersome for the figures. The operating results and the operating margin, they are showing a very pleasing development. Of course, that is due to the growth, but also strict cost control and the focus on productivity. Although the productivity side has also been suffering due to shortages of components because we have not been able to run our factories as, should I say, as flexible and as floating as we are used to.
There are many negative factors when material doesn't come in as expected. Acquisitions, of course, during the pandemic, we weren't so successful in acquiring companies, and it's starting now to come more into a period when we can start closing ongoing discussions. So far, two this year, and of course, we have several more ongoing. If we just have a look at the figures themselves. Healthy growth here, and the organic growth is of course larger than this since the 15.3%, is also hit by the currency.
The gross margin on the whole nine-month period, we've been able to keep up that one. As you're gonna see in the last quarter, there we are suffering a little bit more. The operating margin is up some 38%, which again, is due to cost control and all that we mentioned before. You see that little s-star there. Now we talk about results without the revaluation of additional considerations which we added last year, and that all the figures we talk about now, they are the sort of net figures.
Operating margin up from 12.1% last year up to 14.5%. Here again, this of course is a very pleasing jump, but we have to always keep in mind that last year was not really an ordinary year with an extremely weak first quarter, particularly the first March to June, and then the recovery. The pleasing figures, of course, they should be viewed in that perspective. Nevertheless, it's a healthy growth and the operating margin as well as in the profit after net financial items, which is very pleasing to us naturally.
If you just look at the quarter as such, here we see that the market growth is still healthy, and the gross margin we see here is slightly below last year's third quarter. There we see more of the price increases have hit us a little bit harder than we would have liked to see. Operating profit is up again, and the operating margin is again exceeding what we had last year. Last year's third quarter was extremely strong. It was almost like all the demand that relaxed in the first four months, I talk about March to June, came back in the third quarter 2020.
We are quite pleased that we were able to, after all, beat those figures. It wasn't so easy we thought when we entered the quarter. If we have a look at the graph here, I think that the bar on Q3 is illustrating that we are suffering from the shortage of components. Typically, that bar is, you know, extended a little bit above the Q2 2020. Of course, it was extreme. It was like 10%. Typically, it would be like 4%-6% of a deviation there. Again, that's an illustration that we have not been able to deliver as much as we would like to.
Order intake has been, as we mentioned before, phenomenally strong, but also delayed orders from our side is definitely on too high side. Results-wise, yeah, that's pretty much in line with the graphs that we have had in the past. Of course, had we had more invoicing, the bar here on Q3 would have been longer naturally. You can't really ask perhaps for everything being perfect. It is just now when the world is going, you know, sustainable, we would like to demonstrate that we are ready, and we just believe that the world is now going in this direction, and everyone has to smarten up to help companies going in this direction.
Just a few comments about the business areas, and of course, the Climate Solutions, they didn't suffer that much really during last year. There were a few weeks only where order intake was down- o therwise, pretty much was pumping in an ordinary way. When it comes to the growth during the first nine months, it's particularly Europe that's pleasing. Practically all markets are going or having a strong demand, and that again, coming back to the sustainability idea. We have launched, we've been able to launch new heat pump production or generations with new refrigerants and also with better performances.
We've been showing these in a different way since fairs have not been allowed. We've been having trucks, large trucks out on the roads demonstrating the product in different countries, Germany, France, Holland and so forth, or naturally also up here in the Nordics. It's actually a quite efficient way of demonstrating product, so it'll be also used in the future. We also started during the year here very ambitious investment program because we see that eventually our capacities will be limited if the volume increase will match our expectations.
We have to be ready as far as equipment and factories are concerned, and also laboratories and visitor centers and so forth. Again, I mean, I've already been dwelling on that, and the shortage of components, we believe that's sort of a shorter time-wise phenomenon. Nevertheless, right now, it's annoying. Also the price increases here naturally, and we have not been able to match the price increases that we've been hit by with our own prices. That is to come naturally.
Despite all that, it's improved operating margin. Again, the growth, of course, is behind that and still a very good cost control. There's always in the background of our three business areas. And, Climate Solutions, the figures there, they take a jump from 14.2% in operating margin up to 16.3%, which is, I think, the highest ever we've had. As far as operating profit, it's more than SEK 0.5 Billion jump from the previous year. That is naturally a substantial improvement here.
The volume increase of 13% is matched by an almost 30% increase in operating profits. Can't complain too much about those figures. Just a quick look into the business area NIBE Element. Of course here we have a sort of sensor into all different industries using elements or using electricity. We can say that practically all have been growing, which is very pleasing to see naturally. Particularly the sustainability side of the product categories and also the semiconductor industry, they really continue to prosper for us.
We've received several questions because there was an article in one of the business magazines in Sweden, how could we possibly benefit from the semiconductor industry blossoming? Of course, the same reason is that we supply the equipment manufacturers with our components. When now the semiconductor industry is having a good time, in that particular segment, we are able to supply our components to, again, to the manufacturers of machinery in those gigantic factories. Here again, of course, components and raw material have been hindering our growth. We could have grown more, delivered more, had we been able to receive more goods and materials.
Just as with Climate Solutions, sharp price increases that we've been hit by, we've not been able to fully compensate for that. That's why more price increases will occur. Nevertheless, we've been able to improve the operating margin. The growth has been, you know, enough to sustain the improved operating margin in combination with good cost control. If we just have a quick look at the figures, here again, now we are about the 10%. It was cumbersome for us last year, where the pandemic was at its peak, and now we are back solidly around the 10% or above 10%.
It's a substantial, as you see, should I say, jump in the operating profit, whereas the volume is up some 16%, the operating profit is almost up 40% or some 38.9% of the daily gross . It's very pleasing to see those figures as well. Finally, the stoves, they took the hardest hit when it came to the pandemic. Of course, they come back remarkably strong in all markets, not only in Europe, but also in North America.
Of course, we continue to spend quite a bit of money on the future demands when it comes to wood burning and the combustion air reducing particles, and that's something we really look forward to be able to launch on the market. Again, longer lead times. We are very sad to note that many customers have been disappointed at our, you know, delivery performance. Again, that's due to the shortages of components coming to us. Same phenomena, should I say, again, with price increases that have hit us hard. We, of course, have increased our prices. They're gonna take some time before they fully apply.
Again, we shouldn't complain because the operating margin is still up there. If you look at those figures, of course, the stoves during the period have grown with some almost 30%, volume-wise, again, compared to the same period. It's remarkable to see, of course, the operating profit going from $ 111 to $ 270. It's almost, I think, beyond 140% growth. I mean, the figures, I think when we look back at 2020 and 2021, further, when we are back in or going beyond 2022 and 2023, I think we're gonna view or have to view 2020 and 2021 as exceptional years.
Of course, the pandemic was very exceptional, and also the figures are sort of twisted, some quarters being extremely strong and some quarters being, on the contrary, extremely weak. Some pie charts to finalize. Of course, it's pretty much the same distribution. Climate Solutions, almost two-thirds, and the Elements a bit more than a quarter, and the remainder, Stoves. On the south side, it's the Climate Solutions, typically a little bit above the 70% mark, and then Elements 20%, and the Stoves some 8%. The final pie there would be the geographical distribution, I think. There we can see that Europe has and the Nordics have taken over more from North America, where we have not had that strong growth.
I don't know whether that pie chart is coming out. Yeah, here it is. Particularly Europe has had a very strong growth, and that is, of course, due to the fact that when large countries like Germany, like Holland, like Britain, like France now really start to move in the direction of sustainability. Even if we grow in the Nordic parts, we are a bit outgrown because of the demand in Europe. In North America, it's coming back, but it hasn't been able to match the volume growth in Europe. I think that's what I can mention. I don't know whether I was so short, but it was anyway you saw it, Hans.
All right. Thank you, Eric. Yeah, I will continue with a little bit of number crunching, but try to keep it quick so we can open up for the questions. If we take a little deep dive into Climate Solutions, as Eric mentioned, we have a similar pattern here as in the previous quarter in the sense that the sustainability theme really drives the business, and where we've seen a very strong demand in on mainland Europe, but also the Nordics, and somewhat weaker in North America.
The difference to the second quarter is, however, that the comparables now have become a little bit more difficult, although Climate Solutions is the one that's least affected by this in a way. Sales up to SEK 14.7 billion, up from SEK 12.9 billion, the increase there of 13.3%. There we had a fairly considerable negative currency effect into that.
But we were able to increase the operating margin slightly and then very pleasing to see, as Gerteric mentioned, the growth in the operating profit there, close to 30%, jumping us, you know, two percentage units on the operating margin, which leads us to, on a rolling twelve-month basis, be at SEK 19.7 billion there, a growth of 12% compared to full year of 2020, and with an operating margin there above the 16%. It's overall been a very pleasing performance so far. The third quarter was also nice in the sense that we grew by some 12%, and with a much less effect from the currency there.
With very little contribution from acquisitions, as we have not had so many of those during the pandemic. You do see the effect on the gross margin side. It's down almost two units there, which really is connected to the price increases we have seen and the juggling we've been forced to do, you can say, to keep the production up and running. The quarter as such came in on the exact same margin as the one from last year. In terms of distribution of sales, what Eric mentioned there is that Europe really has grown stronger, mainland Europe, you can say, stronger than the other parts of the world.
That portion is now 52%, up from 49% a year ago. Whereas North America has come down to 18 from 22, and where the Nordics is fairly stable, it's grown a percentage unit. That's the most stable business area you can say in the sense that it was the one that was the least affected during the pandemic. If we move into NIBE Element, we've seen a very strong growth there across the board, but it's specifically driven by the segments with a clear sustainability focus, plus semiconductor on top. However, also here, the supply chain issues have had an impact on the performance.
Looking at the numbers, year -to -date, sales came in at SEK 6.2 billion, up from SEK 5.3 billion, which is an increase of some 16%, but also here with a fairly substantial negative currency impact. The underlying growth in local currency was actually higher. Very pleasing to see the growth in the operating profit up with close to 40%, 38.9, up from SEK 469 to SEK 662, bringing us up to the margin again above 10%. We should not forget that last year in Q2, the business area had a drop of 15% in sales.
Then on a 12-month rolling basis, we're up to SEK 8.1 billion, a growth of some 13%, and with an operating margin there just about the 10%, which we strive for. In the individual quarter, the sales were up by some 19%. Here the strengthening of the Swedish currency has led to the fact that acquisitions and currency basically take out each other, showing a very good underlying growth, you can say. Also here, gross margin has been impacted negatively by the price increases that we've seen, but with thanks to good cost control in other areas, been able to protect their margin of 10%, so up slightly from last year.
In terms of distribution of sales, this is just as before our most global business area, and where sales are pretty stable also from last year in terms of distribution across different areas. NIBE Stoves has for the first nine months showed an unusually strong demand in all markets really. Of course, largely driven by the pandemic in the sense that people have been spending a lot of time at home and taking the opportunity also to renovate their homes when they have not been able to travel.
Also here, the shortage of components has hindered us from really delivering what we could have delivered. Currently the waiting time is pretty long for a stove. Sales came in at SEK 2.1 billion for the first nine months, up almost 30% from last year. Also here, I mean, stoves was really badly hit in the second quarter, specifically of last year, losing some 17%. That has now then come back. Due to this increase in sales, we've actually here been able to increase the gross margin on a year-to-date basis, and more than doubling the results up to 143.5% that Eric mentioned, up from SEK 111 million up to SEK 270 million, bringing the operating margin, you know, doubling that basically from 6.7% to 12.6%.
The comparison to last year is not really fair in a way. On a twelve-month rolling basis, we're just above the SEK 3 billion mark in terms of sales and with an operating margin of just 14% or exactly 14%. The quarter as such was also strong. It was up from 10% with very little effect from both currency and acquisitions, making it possible to also increase the gross margin slightly here as well, and bringing up the operating profit as much as 30%, so up from SEK 78 million to SEK 103 million, and landing then an operating margin of 13.8%.
Overall, it's been a very strong year so far for Stoves and much stronger in Q1 and Q2 than what we are used to. It's usually in Q3 and Q4 where everything happens. In terms of distribution of sales, it's a similar picture as previous years, where Europe, Mainland Europe is close to 50%, the Nordics is a quarter, and then almost a quarter in North America as well through the acquisitions that we've made over there. If we then just quickly jump into the balance sheet, there are not much or not many changes here. I mean, they typically come from larger acquisitions.
Here it's just a continuous buildup, you can say, of cash and equity, although we have been building inventory as well during the last quarter. If we immediately jump to the cash flow analysis instead, you can see that we've generated a healthy portion of cash from the operating activities, close to SEK 3.6 billion, up from SEK 2.67 billion last year. The change in working capital there of -SEK 1 billion or -SEK 1.1 billion is solely from buildup of inventory, where we try to secure raw material and components for the continuous production.
The changes in receivables and payables have basically taken each other out. It's very much related to the inventory buildup. We continue to invest in current operations as before. By saying as before, it's what we have been doing now for the last year or so, where we've increased investments in factories, in building more capacity into our operations to meet the demand. It's slightly higher than what we had up until 2018, where we typically would be slightly below our depreciation. Currently, and the coming year or so we will be above.
Just a quick glance on some key financial figures. I mean, given the performance so far, I mean, they develop of course in a good way. The investment in total have gone down because we have not had that many acquisitions. As I mentioned, the investments in current operations continue at a level of around SEK 800 million. We have a good portion of cash available, and then bringing down our interest bearing liability further and having a net debt now which is below 1. That coupled with you know, good equity assets ratio, we have a good position to make acquisitions now when things start to move again.
The working capital, well, I just mentioned that in a way. I mean, we're building up inventory, and the level we had when we left 2020 there of 12.9% was clearly too low. We had sold out basically everything. That's why we're trying to build up inventory again. Things are selling out quickly in a way, so it's a lot of raw material and components that we have been building up. Then just summing up with the very last key financials. They have developed nicely across the board.
Return on capital employed up from 12% to 15.7%. Return on equity up from 13.2% to 17.6%. Net profit per share has also increased. If we were to include the revaluation of the additional considerations for acquisitions, which we of course officially need to do in the numbers, the key figures would actually be even better. We would have a return on capital of 17%, a return on equity of 19.2%, which is very close to our target of 20%.
I mean, we have included those because we think they have not been generated as other business transactions in a way. From a bookkeeping point of view, I mean, it's all correct, of course. Those are our official numbers. That sums up the statement from my side, and I guess we will open up with questions. Unless you would like to add something, Eric?
No, no, that's fine. It's very clear. I think it's now we have some 28 minutes for questions, so please go ahead.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do wish to ask an audio question to the speakers, please press zero one on your telephone keypad now. If you wish to withdraw your question, you may do so by pressing zero two to cancel. Once again, if you have an audio question for the speakers, that's zero one on your telephone keypad now. Our first question comes from the line of Gustav Österberg from Carnegie. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Thank you, operator, and good morning, Eric and Hans, and thank you for taking my questions. First off, a question on the M&A environment here- a re there still any clear bottlenecks in terms of travel restrictions, et cetera, that sort of prohibit you from operating at a high level? Also, if you could zoom out a bit and talk about industry activity within the Climate Solution segment- h ave there been any sort of large changes there in activity over the past six months? Thank you.
Well, I think that in Europe, we've been able to travel. You know, we started to travel already in August, so we haven't had any limitations. Of course, you have to bring your passport or your whatever you call that when you've been vaccinated. Right now, Klas, you know, our Business Area Director for NIBE Climate Solution, he is in the U.S. So we feel it's not back to normal, but right now we can travel. Then we haven't been really to Asia recently. There, of course, we've had difficulties, particularly in Vietnam, but they also have opened up now but i t's been closed down for quite some time.
We don't know what's gonna happen the coming quarters, given the infection rates we see in the news for many countries.
No, that's right. I mean, it's very difficult for us to predict. It just seems like they accept if you are vaccinated, you know, relatively recently, then you just show your vaccination certificate, and then you can pass. I mean, we haven't had any difficulties the last three months traveling. As far as activities are concerned, of course, there are as soon as you can start to travel again. I don't know whether you mean from our side or how we should interpret your question, whether there are other acquisitions going on or whether we have been able to, you know, always, you know, have acquisitions going on, naturally. I don't know which one you are thinking of particularly, but...
I was sort of asking in relation to what have you seen over the past 12 months. Are you seeing sort of an easing of activity or activity coming back in general in terms of M&A within the-
Yeah. The answer is clearly yes.
Yeah.
Yeah. All right. Perfect. Just a follow-up on the product launches within Climate Solutions. Were you talking about the more environmentally friendly refrigerants? Sort of does that go for the new products, even for the ground source heat pumps, or are you using R290 there as well?
I don't know whether we like to disclose that particularly, but it's not an initial step, R290, but it's well below the 670 GWP.
All right. Perfect. Thank you very much. Just a final question. There's a positive comment, I think, in the report on an easing, sort of from sub-suppliers, from a supply chains perspective. Sort of what can give more color on what's driving that? Is it, you know, production of specific components that comes online again, or is it easing of logistics? Are there any clear drivers here, or is it a general easing?
Well, I think it's more we've seen, of course, that there is or has been a trend that raw materials, you know, have gone down or have peaked. I guess that's what we can say. It has to start there. I mean, if steel goes up, I mean, being used in so many other components, of course, it's difficult to say that the price increases will not continue. Once you see that the raw material is sort of peaking and going the other direction, I think that's viewed as a positive sign. Okay?
All right. Thank you very much. That's three questions from me, and I'll jump back in the queue. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Carl Ragnerstam from Nordea. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Hi, it's Carl from Nordea. A question on your gross margin. It came down maybe as you said, from 35% last year to just above 33% this year. I mean, how much would you say is pricing and how much would you say is inefficiencies related to sort of the component issues? The second part of the question is whether you think that price increases is expected to sort of start to be materialized in Q4 or at least see a sequential improvement compared to Q3.
I'll just sort out those questions. Well, which one should we start with? I mean, divide them into price increases and inefficient. I think the major part is actually the price increases. Of course, also inefficient if they are substantial, then when you have equipped the factory with people or operators and they can't- a ll of a sudden, you know, say it's a stop in the production. I mean, it's a tremendous blow to productivity. If you say that we have got some 1.8% this unit, whatever it is, I mean, it's very difficult, but more than 50% definitely on the pricing side. I don't think we can be more precise than that.
Perfect. It's very helpful. You managed to take out quite significant selling expenses in the quarter, both as a percent of sales as well as in absolute numbers. Is that purely related to lower marketing expenses, also, of course, selling expenses as well, given the pandemic or is it also internal efficiency measures which could be sort of more long-term sustainable?
Well, I think that we all have observed and experienced, you know, a lot of things during the pandemic now. I don't think that we're gonna go back exactly to the same pattern that we had before when it comes to traveling, when it comes to marketing products. We definitely see that we have been trying now a different method, as I said, on the you know, exhibiting products, driving around in Europe, being closer to the customers rather than a lot of the installers coming to Frankfurt or coming to Milan, because that's very cumbersome for operators or for installers to be away for a number of days. When we visit them, it's easier to attract the attention. That's one thing, of course, being much less expensive.
As far as traveling, I mean, we don't like those Teams meetings, particularly, they're all square-headed in a way, but we will not go back to having those board meetings or those meetings that we had in the past, you know, physically. That is gonna cut them down, if not in half, but at least cut them down to a third. I think as bad as the pandemic has been, it has also demonstrated to us that not necessarily have we been doing everything correctly. They could be carried out in a more efficient way. The answer is yes. Some of the savings will continue long term.
Perfect. Okay. That's all for me. Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Pam Liu from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have three, please. The first question is to understand the demand driver in climate solutions. Would you be able to disclose the revenue split between new build and renovation? It's just because we note that in the key markets where you operate, there had been a surge in new residential building permit at the beginning of this year. We also know that in many countries, particularly in mainland Europe, there has been new or renewed subsidy programs available for heat pumps in terms of energy renovation.
Now, obviously, both matters for you, but I'm just trying to understand which of these factors have a more immediate impact for you. The second question is on the component shortage. Would you be able to say which specific components that are causing the problem here? Where are they sourced from? Is this a heat pump industry-wide issue or more of a business specific for NIBE? The third and final question is on margins and how we think about margin going forward. If we compare margins on a year-on-year basis, obviously there's a decrease on gross margin, but an increase on EBIT margin.
I'm talking about Q3 year-on-year basis. That means that operating leverage is really the main drivers here for the EBIT margin expansion that we are seeing. Going into 2022, I would assume that your price increase will start to take full effect. I would also assume that at some point, hopefully, the input cost pressure would ease. Let's say if demand remains strong, does it actually means that we would likely to see your margin continue to expand from the currently really good level already? How should we think about that? Thank you.
That was like a machine gun questionnaire, I'd say. Thank you very much. As far as drivers are concerned, of course, the new construction is important, but as a market in total, you know, new construction is typically, I'd say, as an average, perhaps 15%-17% of our sales. But then it's up to every individual market. But now when we start to look at the growth in the larger countries, of course, it's not only new construction, it's also refurbishment that's coming about, which is much stronger than in the past.
The new construction is always the forerunners. You know, they are taking up new ideas, and that is eventually, should I say, roll over into refurbishment markets. A mature market there, but 15% would be new construction typically, and the remainder would be refurbishment. I don't know whether that answers your question, but that's an attempt anyway.
Yes. Sorry. Can I just confirm, is that 50% or 15%?
15%. 15 % to %17. Yeah.
Okay. Got it. Thank you. Yep.
As components are concerned, they are, I mean, we rely on the largest suppliers, you know, when it comes to critical components. We are, as I said, I mean, we are humble enough to say that we had we been wizards, of course, we should have warned our suppliers, you know, that the growth should be at precisely this. We aren't that intelligent. That's why we have foreseen good growth, but not the growth rate that we have now, and neither, I think, has anyone else. The components that we are lacking are not components typically used by us, but by our industry.
But we will not mention any names. We are not using providers of components, you know, that are sort of, unknown or forming a risk. They are the largest, should say, providers of those critical or crucial components, and they're taken by. They've been taken by surprise. They have their delivery or supply chain issues. It's a phenomenon very much shared with the whole industry. That's our understanding. Margins going forward, well, it's no secret that we've not been able to compensate fully.
We try to exemplify and verify that because you're always gonna be a little bit behind price increases coming to you, particularly in the market that we see now. In some commodities, you know, they forewarn you and say, "Well, we're gonna increase prices at 2.5% or 3% coming quarter three." That's not been the phenomenon for most of our suppliers. They've been more sort of very rapidly suggested price increases because they have been hit by sudden price increases. Of course, our aim to bring it back and, by our own price increases and also by productivity once we are starting to get components in a more orderly fashion. All right?
Yep. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from the line of Philip Buller from Berenberg. Please go ahead. The line is now open.
Hello, gentlemen. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Apologies also, some of this is detailed in the slides. For some reason, they don't seem to be showing up on my screen. I have a couple of questions which I'll ask one at a time, I guess. Firstly, I was just hoping you might be able to help scale the impact on revenue that was missed from Q3 due to these supply issues. I appreciate that's a very difficult job to do with any accuracy, but I was wondering if you could give us your best guess on what that delta in growth was in the quarter. Are we talking about 1% or 2%, or 5%, or perhaps even larger than that? That's the first question. Thanks.
Okay. Well, I think I've tried to answer that question before. If you look back in our reports. If you look back to 2020, then, of course, the difference was something 10%, but that was extraordinary due to the pandemic. If you go back to 2018, I think the difference was like 4%. In 2019, if I remember correctly, it was between 6% and 7% or so. If you would take, you know, something like 5%, 4%-5%, perhaps, I mean, we can't be more accurate than that. Yeah, I think that would have been more normal.
Got it.
That doesn't seem that much, of course, because our invoicing, if you take those SEK 7.8 billion or SEK 7.9 billion, and you divide it with some 65 days or how many days you had, you end up with some invoice of SEK 120 million a day. We talk about three to four days delay. Of course, it's you know, once you start to have delays of this kind, it's affecting practically all deliveries because it's not like you can stand still for four days, so whereas you can compare, "Oh, that's only four days," it's more, much more cumbersome than that. That's an illustration.
Of course.
Yeah. That's- t hat's an attempt to answer your question.
Thank you- n o, that's very helpful. also a question on the comments that you made around M&A and the fact that you're all able to travel a bit more freely now. Things are getting a bit more active again. The question's around the movement in prices or anything that you're seeing. Obviously, prices seem to have been moving a lot in terms of asset prices, including your own share price. I guess, what are you seeing in terms of the transaction prices and how comfortable are you with those as they stand today?
Well, it's a very sensitive question. You're correct, of course, that it's almost like people have forgotten their math book at home, if I may joke a little bit. You know, it's the prices have gone up.
Yeah.
We have to be very realistic about things, but at the same time, we can't hide in this closet, you know, just being in the military. We also have to tag along and understand that the market is very prosperous. We have to be out there. I think it's our model, you know, doing transactions in two or three tranches.
That's been very helpful in the past, and we believe that they're gonna be very helpful also in the future, particularly as we talk to companies where the management or substantial owners, and they like to continue. Of course, we notice that the prices have gone up, and we just have to be very, should I say, sensitive to those phenomena. I mean, we have to. We can't be crazy and again we're gonna just pay anything.
Yeah.
I think that in the past, we've demonstrated that we are fairly cool-headed. Of course, Hans is mentioning now that he has, you know, been gathering a lot of money on the balance sheet, not to- spend it foolishly. At the same time, when the market goes up, we can't sit again and hide, and we don't like it, and therefore we won't buy anything. Is that, yeah...
It's a balance.
Yeah. I mean, it's easy to get carried away given the valuation we have. We could make many acquisitions accretive in a way.
Yeah.
They also need to stand on their own legs.
Yeah, it's encouraging to hear that there's good discipline. Just finally, I'm sure you can't comment too much, but I just wanna make sure that I'm understanding the cautionary comments around Q4 being another difficult quarter. We're kinda mid-November. There's six weeks till the end of the year. From where you stand today, looking at consensus expectations for the full year, do they feel right to you in terms of operating profit in the SEK 4.5 million -SEK 4.6 million range? Or is the comment that you're making around Q4 suggesting that those numbers may be too high? Or are they appropriately based, would you say?
Well, I think that the comments we made in the report, you know, that is as far as we're gonna go because I think you're into very sort of sensitive material now. We like to inform shareholders and investors and analysts, you know, as correctly and evenly as possible. I think it wouldn't be fair to dwell any further on that if I'm not or if we are not in line.
Understood. It's more a question just to make sure that I wasn't missing anything around the sequential deterioration in Q4 versus- Q3, 'cause Q3 was actually relatively, I would say, strong, given the macro backdrop. So yeah, it was just to make sure that I wasn't misinterpreting Q4 commentary. That's great. Thank you very much for the answers. Very helpful.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Karl Bokvist from ABG Sundal Collier. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.
Yes. Hi, and thank you. Most of the questions have been answered. I was just a bit curious on your view when it comes to the timeline or the rollout of products that you are now releasing to the market with new, more environmentally friendly refrigerants. You know, the products that you highlighted, is this one particular category, or is it just a NIBE brand- y ou know, just to get a sense of the timeline for the entire heat pump business of NIBE Group.
Well, it's. Of course, we work intensely together with the different manufacturers, but we were referring particularly to this launch on the NIBE brand. The other brands in Europe also follow very closely here. When it comes to exhaust air heat pumps, we are the only provider within the group of exhaust air heat pumps. There, CTC and alpha innotec and WATERKOTTE, they are not providing that, and that's an important factor. When it comes to air-to-water, of course, that'll be something we're gonna introduce to all four manufacturers. NIBE in the market is leading the way. Okay?
Understood. Just curiosity on Element. If I remember correctly, the companies you've historically acquired that are active within the semiconductor industry are located in North America. I was just a bit curious to understand the, you know, sales pattern. Are they- a re all of your semiconductor companies located in, for example, North America, but they mainly sell to Asia? Or is it that you're seeing strong demand from, you know, regions outside of Asia when it comes to semiconductors?
Well, they are- I mean, they're all head office in the U.S. That's correct, but they all have also manufacturing entities in Asia. The majority of our customers are still located in North America since the equipment manufacturers is heavily dominated by American manufacturers. Of course they produce both in the U.S. and in Asia, but the products then typically would go to the majority would go to back to its market back in the U.S. in some respect also to other companies.
Understood. In climate, just looking at these different near-term challenges with supply chain and components and cost inflation and everything, but you know, just looking at the entire industry, do you get a sense if there's been any changes between companies such as yourselves with local production or compared to manufacturers that might produce in Asia and sell into the European market, for example?
Well, we don't have precise information about that. I think that when you talk about possibly some products, you know, like air-to-air, like those standalone units, they might come in from manufacturers in Asia. We don't have so much information about that. But typically, when you talk about hydronic solutions, which are the prevailing solutions for the European side, then they also produce here in Europe where these parts of the products. I think that we all fight the same problems, practically all of us. That's our understanding.
All right. Thank you.
Thank you.
All right. Well, that's the timing wasn't so bad, so it's like 2 minutes prior to 12, right? Thank you for calling in and listening to us. I hope it hasn't been too much hide and seek. We try to be as transparent as possible, and I think the report is also preaching that message. If nothing else is on the radar right now, then we just thank you very much again and hope you have a nice day. We talk to each other again, if not sooner, it'll be in February when the first for the full year report for the year is coming out, right?
It's almost Merry Christmas already now, huh?
Yeah, right. Yeah, it's almost. We see the decorations are put up outside our window here now, and the nice trees are coming up and stuff like that. It almost is always a surprise when you see those decorations coming up. The candelabras in Sweden or those for Advent, that is so cozy because it's very dark and terrible right now. We are looking forward to that. With that said, thank you very much, and you have a good day. Thank you.