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Earnings Call: Q1 2025

Apr 29, 2025

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Nobia Q1 Report 2025 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one, one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one, one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Tobias Norrby, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Tobias Norrby
Head of Investor Relations, Nobia

Thank you, Heidi, and thank you everyone for calling in this morning to Nobia's Q1 results presentation. The presentation today will be by our President and CEO, Mr. Kristoffer Ljungfelt, and our CFO, Mr. Henrik Skogsfors. With those words, please, Kristoffer, the floor is yours.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Thank you, Tobias. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining. Let's start off with some key highlights for the quarter. In Q1, we're moving into a positive EBIT compared to a year ago and are taking a lot of important steps in the right direction, even if our core markets remain soft. To lift out a few positives, we have done really well in generating cash in the period, which increased by almost SEK 500 million compared to the same period last year. Cash flow from our operating activities was positive, whereas we normally have a negative cash flow in Q1 due to seasonality. That is a testimonial to our efforts of driving improved working capital and liquidity, which is one of our main focus areas across all our business units.

I'm also pleased that we see continuous improvements in gross margins across the group for the fifth quarter. The gross margin came in at 38.6%, which is the highest gross margin since Q1 2018. We will continue to mix up to mass premium and strengthen productivity to improve further going forward. Thirdly, we're materializing the savings up and about the plans that we have communicated, and from the cost-out programs that we launched last year. In the quarter, we released SEK 70 million savings, and the total cost-out programs have now generated over SEK 500 million savings the last one and a half to two years. Finally, and as a consequence of the above mentioned, we continue to make good progress in the Nordic profitability, where we steadily strengthen our EBIT margins through the improved consumer sales, gross profit, and execution of our cost programs.

With regards to the market, then, the recovery continues in the consumer market in all our geographies, especially in Denmark and Sweden. We also experience growth in the mass premium segment, which is most of our brands play, and which is a positive for us. On the other hand, the project market continues to be soft, and we do not expect any significant increase during 2025. The rate of the decline is gradually tapering off. In markets where consumers have been strong for a while now, like Denmark, for example, we're starting to see much more activity with builders and tradesmen. Organic growth came in at -6%. The Nordics was flat, while the U.K. had an organic decline of 12%, but a - 3% on like-for-like store basis.

In the Nordics, the consumer sales is starting to trend positively, which proves that our strategy of pulling resources into this mass premium consumer segment is working. With stronger average order values in consumer, we also mitigated the volume decline in the project business. In the U.K., we are building our order books in the quarter for dispatch during Q2, Q3. As we have exited a large number of stores, according to our strategy, we have fewer distribution points and lower sales, but the store closures will drive large cost savings throughout the next coming quarters, which Henrik will come back to as well. Operating income came in at SEK 16 million with a margin of 0.6%. Again, the improvements were related to the progress in the Nordics.

However, profitability declined in the U.K., where we took this extra marketing cost to drive sales during the important winter sales period. Therefore, we did not get the full impact of the cost savings this quarter, but expect to get the full savings from Q2 and onwards. Let me also add that we do not see any direct impact from the trade barriers, as we do not export nor import anything from either the U.S. nor China. If anything, we could be slightly helped by a weaker dollar, but that is marginal. We also have not seen any change in the consumer buying behaviors as of now, but we will, of course, continue to monitor the situation closely. That goes without saying. If we move into the next slide, please, Tobias.

The kitchen market development in the Nordic region, and as I just mentioned, we continue to see a recovery in the consumer market, which we believe is driven by a slight recovery of housing transactions and a pent-up demand for home renovations. We have continued positive momentum and improved footfall and design appointments. We also foresee that various government grants in house renovations will support the demand for kitchens. We expect consumer growth to gradually also improve our business with the tradesmen, where we in some markets can see more activity, as mentioned just earlier. In markets with higher interest rates like Norway and the U.K., we experienced recovery in the consumer segment, but at a lower rate than in the rest of the markets.

As for the project market, we still experience volume decline in Norway, Finland, and the U.K., but in Denmark and Sweden, it is tapering off in the quarter. Judging from housing starts, as I said, we expect the project market to remain soft until the end of 2025. If we move over to the U.K., it is quite similar to the Nordics with a recovery in the consumer segment while the project market remains soft. On a positive note in the U.K., housing transactions have started to increase, and mortgage rates have fallen since a year ago. It should also be mentioned as a positive that some major U.K. lenders have eased mortgage affordability rules to enable additional borrowing for home renovation as well. We are also positive that more governmental-based property developments are coming about and can therefore see some increased activity in that segment as well.

Let's shed some light on our strategic priorities, which we have seen before, but I will reiterate these and give you an update on where we're at. First of all, maximizing cost efficiency. We remain steadfast to do this in current environments. We are very pleased with the new organizational setup with decentralized operations, where we can still extract the scale benefits that we get in the group for local competitiveness. We have had good impact from the cost reduction initiatives, as said, and savings have now surpassed SEK 500 million, it's up to SEK 550 million. We have rounded savings of yet another SEK 100 million to materialize during the rest of the year. To realize the full Nordic potential, the next point here, we have come a far bit to strengthen Nordic supply chains.

I believe that that team has done really well over the last 12 months. Now we have an important transition from Tidaholm to Jönköping in front of us, which is progressing according to plan, and we shed some light on that as well. Also, in the quarter now, to strengthen our Finnish business and lower our fixed cost base, we decided in April to close the Finnish factory to supply instead the products from Ølgod in Denmark. The Danish product range is very well suited for the Finnish market. We also expect to be able to gain some market share with this setup over time. It has been a month in its making, and even though it is always hard to see some good colleagues leave, I am really pleased about the progression made by our Finnish and Danish colleagues.

In the quarter, in Q2, sorry, we will take a cost of roughly, or exactly EUR 6 million, for sure, and expect savings of about EUR 4 million per annum for this move. Finally, the transformation of the U.K. business is progressing, progressing as planned, although the underlying market, and especially so the project market, is definitely challenging whilst we do this transition. The project market is giving us quite high under-absorption into our supply chain in the U.K. We continue to close the old store formats that are very capital-intensive and replace them with smaller city center stores for the mass premium consumer, moving into what we call the asset-light model, as we have talked about many times, and which is an important pillar of our strategy.

We have also had some good progression with our new partnerships that are coming along nicely, especially those with the builder merchants and franchisees. We are consolidating the brand Commodore into the Magnet business as of now, which is proceeding according to plan. We have also now exited the most unprofitable stores that were up for lease renewal, so we believe we're in a considerably better cost position now than a year ago. Our efforts to drive sales and consumer with higher average order values definitely is the right strategy, and we see good development in front of us and have seen good development in the consumer sales for the last 12 months. Let's move to the next slide and talk more about Jönköping and the state-of-the-art future-oriented factory we have there.

It's extremely exciting what we're about to accomplish in the new factory in Jönköping. The majority of the machine park is now in place, and we are every day making huge progression in the connectivity between systems and machines. Kitchen, sorry, component manufacturing and distribution of the same throughout the Nordic supply chain has been more or less completed, and we are now optimizing those flows across the network. The next big step, which we have started now in Q2, is to industrialize the frontal manufacturing and to have the frontals assembled together with the kitchens and consolidation of the kitchen order. There will be the next important step to deliver the fully assembled and fully consolidated kitchens directly to end consumers.

That's something that we are ramping up now, and we're in the midst of ramping it up, and we do that in parallel to the other steps starting from May. As planned, we expect that the transfer of the Marbodal volume will be completed during this year. I should also mention here that the investments remaining in 2025 amount to about SEK 200 million CapEx before we're done and a SEK 350 million cash flow impact of the same. With that, I hand over to Henrik to talk more about the financials by region.

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

Very good. Thank you, Kristoffer. As you just highlighted, Kristoffer, we are pleased to see the gross margin improvement and the increased profitability for the Nordic region. Organic growth was flat compared to the first quarter last year.

Despite continued pressure on our overall volumes in the project market, we achieved a significant improvement in the group EBIT. EBIT increased by SEK 86 million- SEK 109 million, which is equivalent of a 5.9 percentage points improvement to 7.5%. This improvement reflects the impact of several initiatives, including cost reduction efforts, improved supply chain productivity, and, as communicated in previous calls, a continued emphasis on the consumer segment. These actions show tangible results and is a positive step forward. Our average order values in Nordics, increased, supported by the continued shift in the sales mix between professional and consumer products, which helped offset some of the pressure on overall volumes. Our gross margin improved by 2.7 percentage points, reaching 36.6% in the quarter.

Despite the decline in the volumes and higher on-cost from the ramp-up in Jönköping, the improvement is, driven by operational efficiency gains in the Nordic supply chain, the favorable sales mix across countries, segments, and products, with consumer sales performing better than the product side. Both gross margin and also gross profit increased year over year, together with cost savings in selling and admin expenses. On back of the cost-out programs and the ongoing cost discipline, improved the adjusted EBIT from SEK 23 million last year to SEK 109 million this year. The EBIT margin increased to 7.5%. A continued very strong performance in Denmark was a major contributor, helped by market share gains in consumer sales. Norway and Sweden also saw a gradual margin improvement supported by higher average order values, operational efficiencies, and lower S&A.

Finland continues to be a difficult market, and we are actively working to adjust our cost structure. As part of these broader efforts, which I communicated in early April, and as Kristoffer just mentioned, we have made a decision to close our Nastola plant in Finland and move the manufacturing to our Danish factory in Ølgod. This is a step intended to increase the profitability in Finland. In the Nordics, in the quarter, we took EUR 22 million as items affecting comparability, primarily related then to the Nordic supply chain and, in particular, the transition to our new factory in Jönköping. If we go over to the next slide, please, U.K. The U.K. market continues to reflect the same underlying dynamics as we have seen in the Nordics. Growth in the consumer segment offset by declines in the professional segment.

The organic sales in the U.K. declined by 12% in the quarter. If we adjust for the store closures, sales declined 3% year over year. The consumer segment continued to show growth, but was more than offset by double-digit decline in the project and the trade segment. Despite the supply chain under-absorption caused by the professional volume decline, gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 41.3%. This was driven by a more favorable sales mix and continued impact from our already initiated cost-out initiatives. On a currency-adjusted basis, S&A decreased by approximately SEK 12 million. Our cost reduction efforts implemented last year are delivering planned savings, although these have been partially offset by inflationary pressures and increased spending on online lead generation during the quarter to drive the very important sales in the winter period.

EBIT for the quarter came in at negative SEK 53 million compared to negative SEK 11 million last year. The impact from the sales decline, despite the improvement in gross margin, caused a drop in EBIT in the quarter. We are confident that the savings from the cost-out programs during 2024 will continue to contribute to a lower cost base during the coming quarter. If we go over to the next slide, please, the financial position. We are pleased with the strengthened cash flow during the first quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was SEK +28 million compared to SEK -258 million last year. Slightly higher EBITDA was supported by improvement in working capital. The lower sales in the U.K. resulted in a positive impact on accounts receivable. The payable increased on back of timing compared to last year.

As previously communicated, we are intensifying our focus on operational excellence, through the not now so new operational structure that we implemented in August last year. A key component of this is our ongoing initiative to reduce inventory balance. These efforts positively impacted the cash flow in the quarter, primarily driven by the U.K. and Denmark, which also offset the planned inventory increase in Jönköping during the ramp-up phase for the new factory. On an overall basis, our inventory levels have decreased by 10% year over year. The operating cash flow, including investments, amounted to SEK -85 million compared to SEK -574 million last year, as Kristoffer mentioned earlier. Of this, investments in the quarter mainly related to the machinery for the factory in Jönköping totaled SEK 139 million, down from SEK 324 million last year.

The net debt, excluding leasing and pension obligations, and also IFRS 16, decreased year over year by approximately SEK 0.4 billion to just short of SEK 2.5 billion. Those are, of course, driven by the measures that we took last year. We did a divestment of the subsidiaries in Austria and the Netherlands. We did the sale and lease back of the property building in Jönköping and the rights issue in April last year. The net debt increased by SEK 241 million compared to the end of the fourth quarter last year. The quarterly increase is primarily related to the normal seasonality of cash flow during the first quarter and continued investments in Jönköping. That was all for me. Over to you again, Kristoffer. Next slide, please.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Thank you, Henrik. Looking at the priorities going forward, we are very clear with our agenda.

First of all, we will continue to advance on the strategic plan that we have put in place. We have an important period in front of us, ramping up Jönköping factory. We are ticking on with the turnaround of the U.K. operations, as we have addressed, and we are also continuing to deliver well on our cost-out programs. This remains definitely a very high focus for us. In terms of operations, we will continue to leverage on our strong brands and the new decentralized organization, where we are to capture the growth that we see in the consumer sales. As you can see, we have managed that well, during the quarter. We have also, as we said in the priorities, managed to reach the average order values to a satisfactory level. We have increased our productivity and are continuing to launch productivity-enhancing activities.

We have been very disciplined with cost controls and will continue to be so. As both myself and Henrik have mentioned, we are very pleased with the strict working capital governance that we have had that has generated a lot of improvement in cash flow the last quarter. With that, we open up for questions.

Tobias Norrby
Head of Investor Relations, Nobia

Very good. Operator, please open up for questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder to ask a question, you will need to press star one, one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one, one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We will take our first question, and the question comes from the line of Sindre Sørbye from Arctic Asset Management. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Yes. Hello, good morning.

Congratulations with the very strong results in the Nordic. However, looking at the U.K., the losses are actually accelerating. I mean, with a negative EBIT of around SEK 50 million, how sure are you that you will turn around this with the savings announced at this stage? I mean, you have cut a lot of customers during the recent year, and it still goes more into the red.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Yeah. Hi. First of all, we are, as you said, happy and pleased about the Nordic results and improvements, but we cannot, of course, be happy with making losses in the U.K. In the quarter, we are building the order books because of the very important winter sales period, which is also impacting our cost base, obviously.

At the same time, we are pulling down our cost base quite significantly in the U.K. Just looking at the quarter in isolation, it looks like we do not have any cost-saving measures coming through. Therefore, I think that a quarter like this is not representative of where we believe we stand in the transformation of the U.K. As alluded to before here, we expect higher savings to come through the U.K. business going forward this year. Again, we are confident with the turnaround that we are doing in the U.K., and the fact that we have moved out of these very capital-intense stores that we have in the U.K.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Yeah, sure. Then it is partly seasonality because, historically, first quarter has been quite poor.

What you're also indicating is that not all of the cost cuts are at this stage yet reflected in the P&L.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

I think for the U.K., it's hard to look at the quarter in isolation because, on the SG&A side, you don't see any marginal improvement. However, the underlying improvements in SG&A are much higher and are mitigated by our activity to drive more marketing to support the winter sales period.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Yeah, sure, sure. Just a final follow-up on that one. I think earlier, the colleague said that there were approximately SEK 100 million more of cost savings to be realized during the course of 2025. Could you give a split between those 100 on the Nordics versus the U.K.?

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

It's around 50/50.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Okay,

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

a little bit more in the U.K. than in the Nordics.

We have done more restructuring last year in the U.K. than we did in the Nordics, if you remember the release we did in the end of June last year. More of it is more bias versus the U.K. of the remaining 100, as Kristoffer mentioned earlier in the quarter.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

In those 100, the savings from the EUR 4 million from closing down Finland is not included. That comes in addition, right?

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

No, it is not included in this. The cost that, when we were talking about what Kristoffer showed before, that was what we communicated last year. We had one communication in the second quarter and one communication in the third quarter. When Kristoffer presented earlier in the quarter, we were referring to those programs.

Finland was taken after the closing of the first quarter. That is something that we will follow up with the external markets during second quarter, third quarter going forward. Not including in that amount, no.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Okay. Thanks for clear.

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

100% savings in gross margin.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Yes. Not in the estimate. Yeah.

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

Finland, yes.

Sindre Sørbye
Portfolio Manager and Partner, Arctic Asset Management

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Thank you.

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

Thank you.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one, one on your telephone. We will take our next question. The question comes from the line of Marcela Klang from Handelsbanken. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

Good morning, gentlemen. I agree with Sindre, great, great to see progress you've made. Well done. A couple of questions from myself as well. You mentioned SEK 350 million cash outflows related to Jönköping. Can you give us more guidance on timing of these cash outflows?

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

The timing, I would say that they are pretty evenly spread for the remainder of this year. Because, as you know, the majority of our investments we have already done, and we have some remaining investments coming here. It is approximately SEK 350 million, and it is SEK 200 million more that will be booked as CapEx, and SEK 150 million of them we already have as account payables. It is evenly spread, I would say, if you are going to phase it over the rest of the year.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

Thank you. The remaining SEK 100 million that will be paid through Nobia, when do you expect those?

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

It is also coming here. The majority, I think we mentioned that in the last call also, that what we have said is that we will get them during 2025. You mean from the buyer of the property, correct? That is what you are referring to.

I would say that the majority of that money, we have not received any money during the first quarter, which we knew we should not. We are expecting some money here in the second quarter, but primarily it will be Q3, Q4.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

Thank you. A follow-up question regarding the U.K. You mentioned store closures. Now you are at 170 stores compared to 191 a year ago. Do you have any lease expiries during 2025, or are the cost savings coming in the remainder of the year related to the stores that you have closed?

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Yeah, we have leases coming up for renewal also this year. I think, not an exact number off the top of my head, but it is around 10-15.

The majority of the cost savings will come from the stores that we have already closed and basically walked out of now, both in Q4 and in this quarter.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

On average, how long are the leases for your U.K. stores, the 171?

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

It varies, but mostly around five years break.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

Five years remaining from now.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Oh, no. No, the leases, previously, our leases were written on much longer break clause. Nowadays we have negotiated them to around five years break clause for the leases in the U.K.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

The average remaining time is somewhere between two and three years.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Yeah,

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

I was going to say that. Yes, correct. It is like Kristoffer said, that when we prolong a new lease, we usually return it on as we have the possibility to break the contract in five years.

We are shortening it compared to the history when we had longer contracts.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

Yeah. A question on Jönköping. You mentioned in your report, also in the presentation, complete kitchens in May. Is that the fully automated production process that you will also expect at the end of the year?

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

We gradually, you know, have more and more automated flows. In the beginning, there would be a lot of manual supervision, let's call it, and some manual hands-on activities before we have fully automated all the flows and optimized the flows. The machines are running. As I said, the system connection with the machines is also working in a way that makes me very confident that we have invested in the right places.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

Sounds good. At the end of 2025, how many kitchens per minute will leave the Jönköping factory?

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Oh, I can't, I don't have the exact figures for that. I need to come back on exactly, by minute, on the volumes that we will have for just Marbodal. This is the transition of the Marbodal volume into Jönköping. You know, when we also have ramped up, you remember, according to the plan, we will then move in with some volumes for HTH as well. That is to be delivered in Sweden, HTH volume for Sweden and Norway. When all those flows are in place, we talk about two kitchens a minute, nothing.

Marcela Klang
Deputy Head of Equity Research, Handelsbanken

Sounds good. Thank you. That's all for me.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one, one on your telephone. There seems to be no further questions at this time.

I will hand back for closing remarks.

Kristoffer Ljungfelt
President and CEO, Nobia

Very good. Once again, thank you everyone for calling in, and see you next time on July the 18th for our second quarter results. Thank you.

Henrik Skogsfors
CFO, Nobia

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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