Hello, welcome to SCA's first quarter result for 2013. My name is Joséphine Edwall-Björklund, Head of Communication for SCA. Today, as usual, our CEO and President, Jan Johansson, will go through the highlights from the report. We will have a Q&A session together with our CFO, Lennart Persson, in the end. With this, I hand over to you, Jan.
Thank you very much. To start with some macro updates. As I think everyone is well aware of now, we still continue to have a weak development in Europe, in particular if you look at the domestic consumption in different countries. Of course, the increased unemployment in Spain, et cetera, is putting a lot of pressure into the system. We do see some stronger development in the U.S., in particular in our hardwood businesses. It seems like the construction, the building industry is picking up. Emerging markets, still growth in a very good level from a market perspective, but also internally for SCA. If we look at tissue, we still see some growth in Europe, even we have the difficult situation. Continued strong growth in emerging markets. Personal care, incontinence product is continuing to grow.
I will come back to that when I get into that business area. We see a stable demand both when it comes to baby and feminine. Also emerging market is continuing to grow quite well. The challenge we have is mainly within our forest operations where we saw prices coming down in Q1 and volumes coming down. Volume is down on a European level on some 45%. Compared to Q4, it's actually down around 11%. On kraftliner, very good balance on the market. On hardwood, the balance is improving. Coming into the results. We had a sales growth of 20%. Of course, acquisition is driving that, but we also have an organic growth. If we take away the acquisition, it stands for about 19% of the growth. We also have in forest, as I said, lower prices, which is impacting the sales and profitability.
The EBIT increase of 25%. Of that, some 18% is coming from acquisitions. Cost-saving program is coming in. I'll get back to that also in a moment. We also have lower raw material cost compared to Q1 last year. Cash flow is continuing to improve. If we look at the efficiency program, we have tried to explain it in the different programs that we have running now. The EUR 300 million program we have achieved in Q1, SEK 160 million. Annualized, we are now up to EUR 75 million. If we look at Georgia-Pacific, we have SEK 54 million in Q1. Annualized, SEK 25 million of the SEK 525 million. As we have explained since the bulk of the savings is in supply chain and in the production, it will be rather later than earlier in the process.
In forest, of the SEK 1.3 billion, we have achieved SEK 35 million in the quarter and annualized SEK 140 million. Looking at the Q1 result, the Swedish currency continued to, of course, have a negative impact on the businesses, mainly in terms of translation, except for forest where you also have the negative impact of transaction. From a translation and transaction point of view, we are negatively impacted by SEK 900 million in sales Q1 to Q1 and some SEK 205 million in EBIT currency impact. If we look at earnings per share, we have to remember that packaging was included Q1 last year. It's not including now. It's about SEK 0.38 impact in earnings per share. On the other hand, we have Georgia-Pacific in, and that is offsetting that SEK 0.38.
On top of that, we have higher restructuring cost Q1 this year compared to Q1 last year, which is in the number of SEK 0.38 also. Taking that all in consideration, even the earnings per share is going up. Debt gearing is continuing to improve. We are now down to 0.51. If we exclude the pension debts, it's actually down to 0.45. Q3 to Q4, and as we clearly communicated last time, we do have a seasonality impact between Q4 and Q1, and you can obviously see that on the hygiene business. We also had increased raw material cost of some SEK 138 million, mainly in tissue and forest. Looking at the forest production, we have increased prices in all our countries outside Sweden, in EUR. In USD, we have all-time high in prices. We have higher prices in Japan, in China, in North Africa.
Of course, translating them back to SEK and producing in SEK, you will see a small impact of that in the real operation. Personal Care, very good development. Of the sales growth of 11%, some 7% is coming from acquisition. We had a little bit more than 5% growth in Inco Europe. We are gaining market shares. We are increasing penetration mainly in the men segment. The Inco men is increasing by 13% compared to last year. A very positive development. Baby also continued to increase the same as Feminine Care. Emerging market is growing with some 18%, and 5% of that is coming from acquisition. Substantial improvement in EBIT. Of the 27%, 7% is coming from acquisition.
If we look at the cost saving, we have all in all some cost saving on SEK 102 million in Personal Care, and then I include the program we presented 2011 also. Of the SEK 300 million program, some SEK 47 million is included already in the Q1 figures. Coming into Tissue, also with a substantial sales growth, where of course the bulk of that is coming from the acquisition. Of the 33%, some 30% is coming from acquisition. Looking at the emerging markets, the 17% growth, of that, 7% is coming from acquisitions. We still have a very good underlying organic growth, and that goes of course the same for Personal Care. Of the EBIT increase, some 30% is coming from acquisition.
In cost saving, if I include the old programs with the new program, we have some SEK 132 million included in the results for Q1, all of which SEK 113 million is coming from the SEK 300 million program and Georgia-Pacific. Forest operations. We still had, as I think we anticipated also, further price decreases in Q1 with some 3%-4%. We have divested Aylesford, which has an impact of 11% on sales. As I said, solid wood is going stronger, and in particular outside Sweden. We will increase prices in kraftliner in two steps, EUR 20 plus EUR 20. EUR 20 will be implemented in May, and another EUR 20 implemented in June. The balance is very good in kraftliner. The possibility to increase prices should absolutely be there. We also will increase prices in our hardwood operations during the second quarter. There is an absolute need to increase prices even in publication paper.
I can't really foresee that you will see any impact of that in Q2, hopefully we manage to increase prices so we can see some impact in the second half of the year. The currency impact Q1 is as much as SEK 110 million in forest. That is then including transaction. We also have a capital gain, not cash flow, impacted by SEK 101 million. That is because we have swapped some forest land that had that impact on our business. If we summarize, we have good sales growth. We have higher earnings for the hygiene business. The currency is putting pressure on the Swedish operations, of course. Efficiency programs are running as planned, we will achieve what we have communicated to the markets.
We have now got all the approvals by the divestment we had to do to acquire Georgia-Pacific. The impact on the result for Q1 of the divested businesses was SEK 67 million. We have also finalized the divestment of Laakirchen. The impact in Q1 on the result on forest from that operation was SEK 34 million. We will also have some maintenance stops in the forest during Q2 in Ortviken, in Östrand, and in our kraftliner operation. The estimate now is that that will have a negative impact of somewhere around SEK 70 million for Q2. With that, ladies and gentlemen, we open up the floor for questions.
We start here on the front row.
Thank you. Johan Sjöberg from Carnegie. Could you say something about the efficiency programs going into the second quarter? The sheet rate that you achieved now in Q1, is that a level which one should expect now for the coming quarters?
Well, I mean, what we have communicated is the impact in Q1 and the run rate. That's far I can go today. What you could expect is that it's at least what we have as a run rate.
In terms of Q1, normally it's a seasonal weak quarter for your hygiene operations. Was it as planned, would you say now in Q1? Was there something else impacting your underlying earnings apart from the seasonal weakness, and of course, the currency?
I think if you go back three years in time, I think we have been able to reduce the seasonality slightly every year. I think 2011 it was SEK 500 million, then less. It is an impact, but it's less than it was last year. I don't know if that's an answer to your question, but it's a little bit lower impact than maybe we anticipated.
Can you quantify the seasonal weakness in Q1 quarter-over-quarter?
The negative impact you see in Q1 compared to Q4 is mainly seasonality. Then, of course, what I said also about the raw material, the rest is seasonality.
Can you put a figure on the seasonal weakness? How big of impact did it have during Q1 versus the fourth quarter?
No, I don't have that figure in the totality. You have to mix all the different categories also. In general, you could say if you take the difference between Q4 and Q1, you have the seasonality.
All right. Thank you.
Next question we have on the third row.
Yes. It's Linus with SEB. Continuing on the tissue profitability and the sequential development. You had talked about seasonality and the volume impact. I'm just a bit curious about the price effect. It appears that pricing, mixed price, had a negative impact as well in Q1 versus Q4. Could you talk a bit about that? What's the explanation for that, and is there any price pressure that you're seeing in any markets or segments within tissues?
If you compare Q4 to Q1, it's not in particular from a price point that has happened. Q1 to Q1, we had some minor price decreases during last year that impacted that comparison, but not between Q4 and Q1. There's always a price pressure. There's always a tough competition. That's something we live with day to day. On the other hand, as you can see now, the raw material prices are coming up, in particular pulp, and also the euro/dollar is changing. From my point of view, the incentive is rather to increase prices than to decrease prices.
It's not a concern that we should have you maintaining or maybe even increasing tissue prices as of now?
It's always a concern. The ambition is to offset the increased cost that we get.
Okay. Also on the cost side, if you could talk a bit about the associate line, which came off in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter, and talk a bit about the restructuring that I suspect is at least part of the explanation, and what kind of restructuring costs we should expect in Australasia in the quarters ahead.
Lennart?
Yeah. It is fluctuating a bit, as you say. It is from Australia and New Zealand. Vinda is quite stable. We have had some restructuring costs in the first quarter. I expect less in the second quarter.
Otherwise, you can say in general, Australia and New Zealand is actually doing a very good job. It's improving. Excluding the items Lennart mentioned now.
For how long do you expect to be seeing restructuring costs in that region?
It will take this year. The main part of the restructuring is taken already.
Thank you.
another question. Yes.
Yes. Kari Rinta, Handelsbanken. Few clarifications. Firstly, this SEK 160 million in cost savings, does that include the Georgia-Pacific synergies?
The SEK 160 is the SEK 300 million program.
on top of that, you have the-
Yeah
Georgia-Pacific. Okay, thanks. These divested units, is it now so that those will be now excluded from April 19th onwards?
They will be excluded in Q2, yes.
All right. Thanks.
Okay. Let me see. Any more questions from the floor? We open up, operator, for questions from the telephone. Do we have any questions?
Of course. Thank you. Just a reminder, for those on the telephones, please press star and one to ask a question. You have a question from Celine Pannuti. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. I have a few questions. First of all, you talk about the raw material environment. Can you please give us a bit of an outlook of what we should be expecting for the year? I think in the previous conf call you mentioned something like 2%-3% raw mat increase, but if you can confirm that. There was a question earlier on pricing. Should we expect, therefore, pricing to pick up in the second half of the year on your hygiene divisions? Second question would be on, you mentioned that you had higher marketing spend in personal care in this quarter. Can you tell us what is this regarding? Because I think you already had some high spend last year, so I was a bit surprised that you had even higher spend this quarter.
Finally on FX, I think in March in the conf call, you told us that the impact for the year from the Swedish krona should be SEK 500 million on EBIT. As of today, could you give us an update of what could that be for the year? Thank you.
Okay, thank you. If we look at the raw material situation, the increase in raw material we have seen is mainly on the pulp side, impacting the tissue operations. In personal care, we actually have seen raw materials coming down a little bit during the quarter. Looking at the fundamentals, there is not really any driving forces for further increase in raw material prices. There are some expectations on some small increases in pulp. Also, I believe very much influenced by the U.S. dollar development, since there is a negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and pulp. The main challenge may not really be the price changes in U.S. dollars, but rather how will EUR-USD move, since we produce the bulk of it in euros and we buy it in U.S. dollars, and that's, of course, a very difficult question to answer.
When it comes to our market activities, we do continue to invest, in particular in our incontinence care business to gain market share and increase penetration, because that has, in the little bit longer run, an incredible potential. As I said, we grow the TENA for Men by 13%, and the penetration extremely low in that segment. If we can increase that would absolutely benefit the profit and the growth going forward. That's one reason why you see slightly increased cost on that side. What was the third question?
It was on FX.
Sorry?
FX.
FX. Well, recently, the Swedish krona has weakened a little bit. It's too early to say that it will have a major impact for the year. I think at least for the time being, we should stick with assumption we had at that call.
Okay. Just to go back on raw material, if I understood well, you think you will have a balance between oil-based raw materials which are coming down and pulp prices which are coming up. Is that what you're saying?
Yeah. You could maybe put it like that. Even though the pulp is, of course, in volume and value much higher than the oil base. On the other hand, it's something we need to offset in some way or another, either by higher prices or even further reduction of costs. We're not going to accept over time that it will have negative impact on the margin. As you know, we always have a difference in timing. We have 40-45 days impact of the pulp increases or decreases. We have a longer time period to get it out to our customers. It will be offset in one way or another. As I think we also have proved the past two, three years.
Very good. Thank you.
Operator, we can take the second question from the telephone.
Certainly. Your next question is from Peter Testa. Please ask your question.
Thank you very much. Maybe just following on from that question on pricing. You declared in tissue that it was your ambition to get the price increases. Have you started to initiate these steps in tissue so far?
Yes, we have.
Thank you. On the personal care business, there was also, in the deviation table, price mix effect and negative price mix effect. I was wondering if you could help us understand where that's from, please.
It's mainly coming from a major contract growth in volume in Europe with a slightly lower price than we had in average, but still giving an extremely good return.
Okay. Would this be reflecting any of the possible impacts of competitor withdrawing in the baby sector, which is also a strong segment?
Sorry, I missed that question.
Would this point you just made be reflecting any competitor withdrawal in the baby sector in Europe?
Yeah. That is, of course, something we're still working on, that Georgia-Pacific is leaving a big part of European in baby and also in tissue, actually. You don't see any impact of that in Q1, and you will not see any impact in Q2 either, because we haven't really decided how we should move on that.
Right. Okay. Then just a question on the cost savings plans. Just could you give a general sense of whether you think you're running it sort of ahead or behind your previously viewed schedule?
I think we are in line.
Okay. On both. On all three, sorry.
Yes.
Okay, fine. Then just lastly, on raw material and on personal care. You described pulp is more of as a bigger part of the business, it relates more to tissue. In the personal care, in isolation, do you think the raw material view is relatively favorable now for Q2 at least?
I would say stable or slightly down.
That's great. Thank you very much for the answers.
Thank you.
Operator, we take the final question from the telephone.
Your final question is from Oskar Lindstrom. Please ask your question.
Yes, good morning. A couple of questions. This is Oskar from Danske Bank, by the way. Sorry. The first one is coming back to this issue of tissue and rising raw material costs and potential price increases. In this quarter, we saw a price mix negative both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, you've previously talked a little bit about that you had initiated price talks with some clients on the tissue side. Could you say a little bit more about that? How those are going?
We have a negative raw material impact of SEK 40 million, it's not particularly substantial. I'm not going to comment on our discussions with our customers.
Okay. Second question is, if I understand and remember correctly, you've previously warned about how higher oil prices could lead to increased raw material costs in the personal care division. Am I understanding you correctly that you're now no longer seeing that as a threat going forward?
That will have an impact on the oil-based materials, but with a delay of four to six months. I guess the anticipation are globally with the shale gas, et cetera, is putting a pressure on the oil price.
All right. More long-term question, your debt level is now coming down fairly quickly, do you see the focus going forward being on strengthening your balance sheet, M&A, or dividends? In which direction are you leaning?
We have a policy of a gearing of 0.7, now we are down to 0.5. That of course, gives us some space to look at some acquisition. Also, of course, if we don't see anything good to do with the money, there's always a decision for the AGM to decide whether or not it should be given back to the shareholders. We don't have any intention to build some cash mountain in the company. Cash should work.
Okay. Sorry, I just want to come back to this issue of tissue pricing. It is correct that you'd previously mentioned that you had initiated talks with clients about raising prices on tissue. Yes?
Yes.
Now you don't want to say what the status of those talks is or?
Right.
Okay. Well, those were my questions. Thank you.
Thank you.
Okay, any final questions from the floor before we end? No. That makes the finalization of today. Thank you so much for attending, and have a good day.
Thank you very much.