Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of SCA's 2025 Year-end Report. With me here today, I have President and CEO, Ulf Larsson, and CFO, Andreas Ewertz, to go through the results and take your questions. Over to you, Ulf.
Thank you, Anders, and also from my side, good morning, and a very warm welcome to the presentation of SCA's result for the full year and the fourth quarter, 2025. During 2025, SCA showed resilience. Despite the increasing wood raw material costs, a challenging market environment, and a currency headwind, we reached SEK 6.6 billion on an EBITDA level, and by that, an EBITDA margin of 32% for the year. Our high degree of self-sufficiency in strategic areas continued to be an important factor to mitigate higher costs. Harvesting from our own forest increased and reached 5.4 million cubic meters during 2025, partly offsetting the higher cost of wood raw materials.
SCA continued to gradually increase production in the sites where strategic investments have been made, and this has resulted in high delivery volumes in comparison to last year, driven by the new paper machine in Obbola, the grading mill in Bollsta sawmill, the biorefinery in Gothenburg, and so on. These investments will contribute to increased productivity and cash flow generation during upcoming years. The book value of SCA forest assets decreased slightly compared to last year and amounted to SEK 104 billion at the end of 2025. As you already know, SCA bases the valuation of the forest on complete transactions in the region where SCA owns land. Turning over to some financial KPIs related to the full year 2025. As already said, our EBITDA reached SEK 6.6 billion for 2025, which corresponds to a 32% EBITDA margin.
Our industrial return on capital employed came out to 4% for the full year 2025, and the leverage was at 1.7 after having finalized our big strategic investments. The proposed dividend for the AGM to decide on is 3 SEK per share, and this is in line with our aspiration to provide a long-term, stable, and over time, increasing dividend to our shareholders. We handed out 3 SEK per share also last year. Finally, earnings per share was 4.56 SEK. This slide will give you an overview of KPIs for the fourth quarter of 2025, and our EBITDA reached SEK 1.2 billion during the fourth quarter, which gave us an EBITDA margin of 25%, driven by a negative currency effect and lower selling prices. Our net debt to equity remains on a solid level of 11%.
I will now give some comments for each segment, starting with forest. Stable harvesting levels from our own forest have contributed to balanced supply of wood raw materials to our industries during the period. Excuse me. We have seen a continuous long-term trend of increasing prices for both pulpwood and sawlogs, and this can be seen in the graph in the bottom left. Regarding pulpwood, we have now passed the peak, and prices have continued to come down during the quarter. Demand for sawlogs continued to be high, especially for spruce logs. When one compares Q4 2025 with Q4 2024, sales were up 10%, while EBITDA was up 3%, mainly due to higher prices for wood raw materials. The storm in mid-Sweden during the end of the year had a limited impact on SCA land. We estimate that approximately 100,000 cubic meters has fallen.
When we widen the scope to Sweden, we estimate that around 10 million cubic meters has fallen, and the majority in Gävleborg and East Dalarna County. I guess we have also another 3-4 million cubic meters in Finland. SCA will prioritize harvesting windfall volumes to support private forest owners, and this might have a minor impact on the total level of harvesting from our own forest during 2026. Harvesting activities in windfall areas will primarily be carried out from Q2 and forward. Windfall volumes will contribute to an increased availability of wood raw materials in this region. Over to wood, and in general, we still have a slow underlying market for solid wood products. We continue to note signs of improvement in the repair and remodeling segment, as well as a decreased production level in Germany, generating better supply and demand balance, especially for spruce.
Stock levels remain on the high side among producers for pine, but are on normal levels for spruce. Stock levels at customers continue to be on the low side. SCA had strong deliveries in the fourth quarter, resulting in a seasonally low stock level of sawn goods for us at the end of 2025. The price for solid wood products decreased by 5% in the fourth quarter of 2025 in comparison with the third quarter, same year. This development is in line with what I said when I presented the report for the third quarter. As expected, the cost for sawlogs has increased from the third to the fourth quarter, and we also expect them to continue to increase going into the first quarter 2026. Sales were up 5% lower in comparison with the same quarter last year.
EBITDA margin decreased from 17% to 6% due to higher raw material costs and a negative currency effect. Today's stock level of solid wood products in Sweden and Finland is described at the top left on this slide and is shown in relation to the average for the last 5 years. As mentioned earlier, we note that the inventory level is on the high side, especially for pine, while the SCA level is seasonally low. As can be seen in the diagram to the bottom left, the Swedish and Finnish sawmill production has been on a normal level during 2025. In the diagram to the top right, we can note that the price decreased during the fourth quarter. The decrease in pine has been higher in comparison with spruce.
Coming into the next quarter, I estimate the price on average will be unchanged in comparison with the fourth quarter, with a stronger tendency for spruce related to a better balance. Going forward, we will closely monitor the market development in continental Europe that is impacted by lower production, not the least in Germany. So coming over to pulp. When comparing Q4 2025 with Q4 2024, sales were down 14%, mainly due to lower prices and a negative currency effect. The negative EBITDA development was also driven by lower prices and a negative currency effect. The cost for the planned maintenance stop in Q4 2025 was ninety-eight million SEK, compared to 250 million SEK in Q4 2024. Global demand for pulp was at a healthy level during the first quarter of 2025.
During the second quarter, the market changed, with reduced demand and prices came under pressure, much due to uncertainty related to U.S. tariffs. During the third and fourth quarter, prices on NBSK pulp was stable at low levels. On the demand side, we saw an increased activity in China. The weakening of the U.S. dollar in relation to the Swedish krona, which started already in Q1, continued to have a negative impact on the price in SEK, also in Q4. Tariffs on NBSK pulp from the European Union to the U.S. were removed during the third quarter. This allows us to maintain a competitive offering to the U.S. Market rebates are expected to increase by low single digits in the U.S. and mid-single digits in Europe. PIX prices are expected to start to increase to compensate for the rebate.
Looking at CTMP, prices were mostly unchanged in Europe and Asia at low levels during the fourth quarter. Inventories of softwood pulp were on the highest level during the fourth quarter. Hardwood inventories, on the contrary, were on average. CTMP inventories came down during the quarter to a more normal level. Moving over to containerboard . Sales were up 8% in Q4 in comparison with the same period last year, driven by higher delivery volumes, somewhat mitigated by lower prices and a negative currency effect. EBITDA was down by 6%, driven by lower prices and a negative currency effect. We have seen box demand moving sideways in Q4, but still with a positive development on year-to-date basis of around 1.5%. The retail business remains a positive driver.
On the other side, we continue to see a weak European manufacturing industry, which, for the moment, has a negative impact on the demand. European demand of containerboard has developed like the box demand and has moved sideways in the last quarter compared to Q4 2024, but with slight growth for the full year. During Q4, we saw some closures of capacity in testliner, although not yet enough to balance the capacity started up in previous quarters. As can be seen in the graph, kraftliner inventories remain above average level in Q4. Prices for brown kraftliner in Central Europe decreased during Q4 with 20 EUR per ton, while white kraftliner has remained stable. We can see another negative price adjustment of 20 EUR per ton in January.
On the other hand, we now hear announcements of around 100 EUR per ton price increase for testliner, and if that succeed, I guess we will have a price push also in kraftliner at a later stage. So finally, I will say some words about renewable energy. In renewable energy, we have had a strong quarter compared to the same period last year, mainly due to high production and stronger margins in our with St1, jointly owned biorefinery in Gothenburg. In addition, we have had higher production and stronger deliveries in solid biofuels. Electricity prices continued to be low during the fourth quarter, but slightly higher than same period last year. Low electricity prices in the market impact on our wind business negatively, but is positive for SCA as a net buyer of electricity.
SCA land lease business increased to 10.6 TWh according to plan. This is equal to 20% of installed capacity of wind power in Sweden. The Furas Wind Farm was taken over by SCA by the end of 2025, and is now ramping up production. And with the Furas adding to our current power production within the group, we increase our self-sufficiency rate to approximately 100%. The market for solid biofuels in Northern Sweden continues to be weak, but stable, and this fact increases our European export share, and by that, a somewhat reduced margin. For liquid biofuels, we have seen continuous higher margins compared to previous quarters, and the main reasons for our European countries implementing RED III and better control mechanism within EU regarding imported products and feedstocks.
And we expect market volatility in renewable fuels to remain high as Europe ramps up the blending mandates, both in HVO and SAF. And by that, Andreas, I hand over to you.
Thank you, Ulf, and good morning, everybody. I'll start off with the forest valuation and the three-year average price, which we use in the forest valuation to get enough transactions, decreased by 4% to 372 SEK per cubic meters. The one-year average increased slightly, and the market activity during the year was on a normal level. The valuation of SCA's forest assets decreased to SEK 104 billion in 2025. The decrease in the three-year average price was partly offset by continued increase in standing volume to 277 million cubic meters. Biological asset increased by just below SEK 1.8 billion, driven by increasing long-term prices for wood raw materials and higher standing volume due to the net growth. While the value of the land decreased due to lower prices for forest land. Prices for wood materials continue to increase.
The slides show the index price development for sawlogs and pulpwood paid by SCA's industries delivered to site. Prices are at a record high level, with the continued tight market for sawlogs, especially on spruce, while the balance of pulpwood has improved. If we move on to the income statement and focus on the full year to the right, net sales were stable at around SEK 20 billion. Higher delivery volumes and higher prices were offset by negative currency effect. EBITDA increased 8% to just below SEK 6.6 billion, driven by negative currency effects and higher raw material costs, which are partly offset by high delivery volumes and somewhat higher prices. The EBITDA margin was 32%. EBIT decreased to SEK 4.4 billion, and financial items total -SEK 433 million.
We had an effective tax rate of just below 20%, bringing net profit to SEK 3.2 billion or 4.56 SEK per share. If we look at the fourth quarter to the left, EBITDA total SEK 1.2 billion, and was affected by a planned maintenance stop in Östrand by SEK 198 million. Net profit for the quarter totaled SEK 485 million or 0.69 SEK per share. Look at the dividend. The board has proposed a dividend of 3 SEK per share, which is unchanged from the previous year. On the next slide, we have the financial development by segment for the full year.
Starting with the forest segment to the left, net sales increased to just below SEK 10 billion, and EBITDA increased to SEK 3.8 billion, driven by higher prices for pulpwood and sawlogs, and increased harvesting from SCA's own forest. In wood, net sales increased to SEK 6.1 billion, driven by high delivery volumes and high prices, which was offset by negative currency effects. EBITDA increased to SEK 856 million, corresponding to a margin of 14%, and was negatively impacted by higher costs for sawlogs. In pulp, net sales decreased to SEK 7.1 billion due to lower prices and negative currency effects. EBITDA decreased to SEK 752 million, corresponding to a margin of 11%. The decrease was mainly related to lower prices, negative currency effects, and higher costs for pulpwood.
In containerboard, net sales increased to SEK 7 billion, driven by higher volumes from Obbola and higher prices. EBITDA increased to SEK 1.1 billion, corresponding to a margin of 16%. In renewable energy, EBITDA was stable and totaled SEK 442 million, corresponding to a margin of 22%. The market for liquid biofuels improved during the later part of the year, while electricity prices continued to be low. Moving on to the quarter, and on next slide, we have the sales spread between Q4 last year and Q4 this year. Prices decreased 6%, with lower prices in pulp and containerboard. Volumes increased by 7% due to higher volumes in mainly containerboard, but also pulp. And lastly, currency had a negative impact of 6%, bringing net sales to SEK 4.9 billion.
Moving on to EBITDA bridge, and starting to the left, price mix had a negative impact of SEK 370 million, and higher volumes had a positive impact of SEK 77 million. High cost for raw materials had a negative impact of SEK 37 million, which was mitigated by high degrees of self-sufficiency in wood raw materials. We had a positive impact from energy of SEK 41 million, and a negative impact from currency of SEK 269 million. Others was impacted by lower costs from planned maintenance stops. In total, EBITDA decreased to SEK 1.2 billion, corresponding to a margin of 25%. Look at the cash flow, we have an operating cash flow of SEK 3.1 billion for the year and SEK 529 million in the quarter.
As you know, other operating cash flow relates mostly to working capital currency hedges, and should be seen together with changes in working capital. Moving on to the balance sheet, the value of the forest assets decreased to SEK 104 billion. Working capital decreased compared to the previous quarter, but increased year-on-year to SEK 5.3 billion. In the quarter, we have increased our harvesting rates of especially spruce sawlogs for 2026 from private forest owners, which increased both inventories and payables, but no impact on the quarter's cash flow. Capital employed decreased to SEK 112 billion, and net debt totaled SEK 10.9 billion, and we have now almost finalized our large ongoing investment projects. Equity totaled SEK 102 billion, and net debt to equity was 11%. Thank you.
With that, I'll hand back to you, Ulf.
Yeah, I mean, try to summarize 2025. I think we have delivered a solid result given the current market situation. When we compare 2025 with 2024, I mean, we are negatively impacted by almost SEK 1 billion related to currency and also to raw material costs. On the positive side now, I can see that our strategic investments, they have started to deliver, and it will be interesting to see when we have a turning point in the market, what kind of leverage we will get from those investments. So by that, I think that we open up for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. We will now take our first question from Ioannis Masvoulas of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for the presentation. Just two questions on Storm Hans , where you've given us some very useful color, but just to get your perspective on how things develop from here, assuming we do have the additional wood supply coming into the market, shall we expect to see an acceleration in the decline in pulpwood prices? And what would it mean for sawlog prices that have remained stubbornly high? And then second, and related to the storm, your costs, harvest costs were likely a bit higher in Q4. Going into Q2, where you expect to focus on harvesting windfall volumes, how should we expect your harvesting costs to develop in Q2 and Q3 this year, and would that have a meaningful impact on your PNL? Thank you.
Okay. If we start with the cost, I mean, as I said, not more than 100,000 cubic meters has fallen on SCA land, and of course, when you take care of that part, that will increase the cost, but that's a minor part of the harvesting we do in on our own land. But for private forest owners, okay, we will have increasing costs, and typically, I mean, the forest owner has to pay for the increase in cost levels, so that will be no major impact on SCA in that perspective.
When it comes to prices, I mean, as you say, for pulpwood prices, they have already start to decline, and that will step by step come into the accounts of companies as we have—I mean, we have a lagging effect, of course, but that will continue, and maybe it will also. I mean, it will not be, pulpwood costs will not be. That will be positively helped by this storm, that's for sure. When it comes to sawlogs, I guess the main part of what has fallen is pine, and maybe we start to see decreasing prices for pine, and that will also, I think, after a while, come also for spruce.
But during the first quarter, at least for SCA, I mean, we have to take care of what we bought already in the fourth and third quarter, and that mean increasing sawlog costs in the first quarter, but then I guess we start to see some decreases also for sawlogs. But it's as it is just now, I guess it's an oversupply. It will be, at least in the second quarter, an oversupply of pulpwood, while it will be a little bit more stabilized situation for sawlogs.
Sorry, just, so go on.
No, that's my view, more or less.
Very useful. So just one follow-up on pulpwood. What sort of cost development into your industry shall we expect for Q1 versus Q4?
Yeah, on the pulpwood, it's a low single digit decline, around 2% maybe.
Thanks very much.
But, but, but on the other end, for sawlogs, I guess we will have almost 10.
7, yeah, 7, 8%.
7%-8% price increase, and then step by step, we will see a reduction in prices.
Got it clear. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
We'll now take our next question from Charlie Muir-Sands of BNP Paribas. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you very much for taking my questions. Just firstly, on currency, I know you give the in the statement you give the average hedging rates. It looks like, you know, those are still meaningfully ahead of latest spot market rates. So as things stand, should we continue to expect sort of a current sequential currency headwind over the next couple of quarters, I guess, particularly on the pulp segment, given the movement of the dollar? And then secondly, sorry if I missed it, but, have you given or can you share your thoughts on CapEx for 2026 and any early thoughts on where that might go to in 2027 as you complete wrapping up any final expansionary projects? Thank you.
Yes, I'll start with the currency. You're absolutely right. We have, I mean, for next year, on average, we hedge about 50% of our net currency exposure. So once those hedges goes out, of course, if the dollar stay at the same level, that will be a headwind. And if you look at our dollar exposure, if you include the indirect effects, meaning that we might sell in SEK or euro in pulp, but the price also depends on the PIX prices in dollar. If you include that indirect effect, our dollar exposure is around $700 million per year. And then on the CapEx side, our early estimate is around, on current CapEx, is around 1.5 billion for next year.
Strategic CapEx, we have some spillover from this year to next year, expecting that to be around SEK 400 million, maybe SEK 500 million. But after that, I mean, we have finished basically all of our strategic CapEx that we're currently decided on.
Many thanks. And then just briefly on pulpwood, as you said, as you acknowledge, it's coming down. I just wondered, are you seeing at all any of your customers start to pressure you to pass those costs on in terms of lowering your prices in any of the industrial output grades? Thanks.
I mean, prices are already very, very low at the moment for finished products. I think this lower cost will, of course, help our margins.
Great. Thank you. Best of luck in the quarter.
Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Robin Santavirta of Carnegie. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much, and, good morning. First question I have is related to, to harvesting volumes. You have nicely, increased those in line with, with your guidance a few years ago, and, and landed at 5.4 now, in 2025. What is the best, guess for 2026 and 2027? Is it, roughly harvesting volumes in line with, with what you achieved in 2025, or, or is it higher or lower? What are the key, sort of, reasons for, for product?
Yeah, if we start with that one, I mean, we will, I guess, we might see a minor decrease from our own forest, as we now have to support private forest owners in our region, and we have some also agreements in place already, which is long-term good for us. I mean, we will place some of our resources in south from Sundsvall in the Gävleborg and even further south to help it. I mean, 10 million cubic meters in a rather limited area, that's quite a lot, and that will, of course, need some extra resources to take care of it.
We also have to fight against the time, because now we had more or less one meter snow, which I mean, it's not so easy to go in there and start to do the harvesting operations. So I guess we will have a peak in the second quarter, and as fast as possible to avoid getting the wood destroyed, blue stain, and things like that. So that might have a minor impact on the harvesting volume from our own forest.
For the full year, roughly the same, most likely lower, perhaps?
Yeah, I mean, it is around this level.
All right, thanks. In terms of with the European softwood pulp sales, can you shed some light on the discounts you have agreed for 2026, helping out with modeling here? And also, in terms of the list prices, where are they now at the end of January, and what's the outlook for the next month or two? Just so we understand how the net price outlook is.
Sorry, I didn't get it. What, was it pulp or was it solid wood products?
Yeah, on pulp, pulp. Yeah, I guess the discounts, the annual discount-
Ah, okay.
For the year have gone up a bit then, yeah.
Yeah, you're right. I mean, PIX prices, they were on 1,500, and now they have started to increase, and I guess we will end up in 1,550, maybe at the end of January. And we start to compensate for increasing rebates. But we will, as you can calculate, we will not do it in one quarter. I guess we will see another price increase in February, and I guess also we will see a third price increase in March. And at that time, I guess we have at least compensated for increase in rebates. So, but that's the case. So if you compare Q sequentially, if you compare Q1 with Q4, I guess we will have a lower price.
We will have a lower price in Q1 in comparison with Q4. And in addition, you also have a stronger SEK against the dollar, which will have an impact also. That's harder to predict, but that's the case as it is just now.
And then Ulf guided previously on that, the rebates in the U.S. is increases low single digits, while in Europe, it's mid-single digits That's the general markets, rebates.
Okay, I understand. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
We'll now take our next question from Johannes of SB1 Markets . Please go ahead.
Yes, hi, everyone. It's Johannes. I have two questions. The first one is on container board. You did pretty well on volumes there, shipments, at least, compared to my expectations. Could you share some color on that sort of ramp up of volumes? And were you able to sell, you know, the new incremental volumes at market terms, or did you have to sort of give hefty discounts there? If you could give some color there, please.
Yeah, I mean, we are happy with ramp up in Obbola, and as I said also before, we are close to 600,000 tons in 2025, which is according to plan. So we are. We will continue that work also going in now to 2026. And, I mean, it's more a question about mix. I mean, we, as it is just now, with the current market situation in Europe, it's not possible to deliver the extra volume, so to say, in Europe, so that we have to find places overseas. And by that, of course, we have a, as it is just now, substantially lower margin.
But again, our main focus just now is the ramp up, and then I guess we are looking forward to the point when the market turns, because then we will have a good leverage also from those volumes. But as it is just now, we are impacted price-wise due to the mix, geographical mix.
Okay. Well, thank you. That's clear. My second question is more on capital allocation, and of course, this is more of a question for the board, but I try to ask it to you, Ulf, anyway. But the sort of SCA way of distributing cash to shareholder has always been traditional dividends, but in the light that strategic CapEx is now coming to an end and in light of the share price valuation, do you have sort of more intense discussions about share buybacks going forward? If you can elaborate on that question, please.
I mean, as you say, that's a question for our owners and the board. And I think it was a sign of stability to keep the dividend at the level we had last year. And I mean, that's a sign of we believe, I believe, that we are now at the bottom of this business cycle. It's volatile, and now we are at the bottom. And also, I mean, we know that we are well prepared when the market turns. We have done big investments now, and we have ramped up them in a rather good way, and we are looking forward now to see increasing prices and then leverage from those investments. And as Andreas said, I mean, we have no big investments in plan now coming years.
So, then let's see what kind of discussion we'll have at that time. But for now, I mean, we are happy to deliver the same dividend as we did last year.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Oskar Lindström of Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
All right. Good morning. Three questions from me. The first one is actually carrying on from Johannes' question a little bit here about capital allocation, but I'm not gonna ask you about share buybacks. I mean, given kind of weak markets, structural challenges, and that the energy segment, at least, might look, presumably, as attractive as it did a few years back, where do you see your potential to sort of structurally grow earnings in the coming years? And, you know, where could you invest to drive your growth? That's my first question. Do you want me to ask the other ones as well, or?
No, if we can take the first one first, I'm happy. I mean, again, as we said, I mean, just now, we are in a challenging market environment. As you know, we have done a lot of big investments. We will grow our volumes. We have been growing our volumes also in both 2024 and 2025. And, I mean, just now we are 100% focused on delivering on those investments. I mean, of course, we will come back. When this is fully ramped up, and when we have started to see a slightly better market, and by that, also a strong cash flow, then I think is the time to come back to the development.
But just now we are so focused on to do what we have started, to finalize what we have started.
Yes, right. My second question is, is maybe for Andreas. Is there any impact from loss of emission rights on earnings in Q1 or for full year 2026? And, if so, how much, and where have they been reported so far?
Look, we will have an impact if you look at 2025 compared to 2026, as now the new emission rules, ETS, is in place. So that means that if you look at our four big mills, Obbola and Ortviken will still be part of the ETS system, while Östrand and Munksund, they are too good in their emissions, and therefore they will strangely be removed from the system. On Östrand, we don't have a surplus, so that doesn't matter. But on Munksund Mill, we will lose our emission surplus, which is about 100,000 tons of emission rights each year.
And then, if you look historically back, publication paper, Ortviken was the biggest receiver of emission rights, but that we divested in or closed down in 2020. So that had the biggest impact, but now, Munksund will be removed for next year.
If I may just ask a follow-up on the Munksund. Have you been selling those, the full sort of all the emission rights that you've been given each year? Have you sold them each year, or have you built up a backlog, or how should we calculate that?
We've usually some we sell internally to our logistics department, especially for 2025, when you have to have also buy emission rights for in the transportation sector, and the rest we have sold. So we will sell, we will lose 100,000 tons going forward.
So we should assume sort of loss of 25,000 tons per quarter, times whatever the average price was, for emission rights?
Yes. Yes, that's correct.
Good. All right. Just a final question, if I may, on, I guess the wood segment. You mentioned this sort of dramatic or lower harvesting levels in Central Europe. I presume it's as a consequence of the bark beetle infestations there. So two questions there: How dramatic is this decline in harvesting levels in Central Europe? And is there, you know, any sense that this is impacting or will impact the sort of the long-term timber and saw timber supply from that region? This is a competitor that's disappearing.
Yeah, I guess, I mean, we see also, as it is just now, the spruce market is substantially stronger than the pine market, and that's due to the balance, I would say. And the production level in Germany has been also lower for a while now. And I guess one part of it is that it is trickier to get access to sawlogs. And of course, when you have a tighter balance, you have to pay more, and then as it is a marginal business, I mean, then they have in some areas taken curtailment. So, the long-term effect, I mean, I don't...
Typically, I guess, it will be tougher to get access to raw material in that area, especially in the eastern part, where they were heavily hit by the spruce beetle. And that is also—I mean, long term, the estimation we've done is that we will have a strong balance for solid wood products going forward. As a producer, we will have a strong balance for solid wood products going forward. But then, of course, it's also a volatile business; it will be impacted by the current business cycle. But we believe that solid wood products will be rather strong going forward as the material is needed.
Not the least, if we shall have a chance to mitigate the climate change and so on, I mean, we have to use non-fossil products, and that will be good, I think, for that business going forward.
All right. Thank you. Interesting. Yeah. Those were all my questions. Thank you.
Uh, thanks.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Andrew Jones of UBS. Please go ahead.
Cheers, gents. A couple of questions. First of all, on containerboard. Obviously, we've seen some price hikes announced by some of the recycled players. I'm curious what you make of the potential for price increases in the current market, given the demand situation and oversupply. I mean, is there more potential in kraftliner maybe, given the market's a bit more balanced now? And my second question is on forest valuations. I mean, given obviously, like, wood prices potentially coming down and obviously rates going up as well, I mean, what are you seeing, hearing in, you know, in your regions in Sweden in general on the sort of trends for valuations? Are you concerned about some more negative valuations as we go into 2026? Thanks.
If I take the containerboard market first. I mean, as I said, I mean, we have seen now some announcements. I don't know if testliner producers if they have come through with price increases, but they have asked for 100 EUR per tonne, and they certainly need it, as I think that many testliner producers, they are bleeding just now. Short term, we have seen gas prices coming up 30%-35%. OCC price is still on the same level, but typically, they, I guess they will also start to ask for more if testliner producers will come through with their attempts to reach higher prices. And when that happen, then, of course, that will give a price push also for kraftliner in a later stage. So, so...
And I mean, that is now needed in the market, but I guess we have a chicken race out there. There's a lot of capacity that's coming on stream for testliner and. So don't know when it will happen, but it will happen, and we are at the bottom just now. That's my estimation.
Yeah, and if you look at the forest valuation, I don't want to speculate going forward, but if you look at 2025, the activity was a normal basis, and the one-year average increased slightly during the year. And for next year, we see in general that the Swedish economy is improving. Wood raw material prices are coming down a bit, but usually, I mean, when you buy a forest asset, you have a 100-year view on the forest prices or the wood raw material prices. So it's not, I mean, it's the general long-term view that's the most important. But we'll have to see, but this year was slightly up on the one-year average, but the three-year average declined.
Yeah. Okay, that makes sense. And actually, just to follow up on the wood prices, I mean, you're talking about sort of relatively modest declines, obviously, so prices being pretty flat so far for pulpwood. Given the decreases we've seen in Finland, I mean, is there any... I mean, I would assume that Sweden would have followed to a greater extent already. Is there anything stopping prices sort of gapping down lower, given, you know, the potential for arbitrage across the board? I mean, what are the thoughts there?
Sorry, what was it? Wood raw materials, was that the.
Pulpwood.
Pulpwood.
Pulpwood.
Yeah, but I mean, we have seen pulpwood prices fallen also in our region. And as Andreas said, I mean, we will see some of it also in Q1, I guess. For pulpwood.
But it's this lag effect, because, I mean, you buy on stumpage what, I mean.
Okay.
What we harvest in Q1, we bought in, Q2 and Q3, and Q4. You have this delay effect 'cause you buy on stumpage to write the harvest from the private forest owner.
And also, you cannot just follow public announcements, as you also, on top of that, have different premiums and things like that, which is individual for each buyer and for each market and so on. So I mean, what you see announced will not be exactly the same effect that you will have in the account, I guess. But you always have this lagging effect. But we are at the same, we have the same journey, and of course, now boosted by the windfalls we've seen in our region, that will also have definitely an impact on pulpwood prices.
And actually, just final one, just on, on context. I mean, what is the total size of the market in Sweden in terms of, in terms of, pulpwood consumption per year? I mean, how significant is that in the broader market?
I'm not sure.
I'm not sure either, really.
But we have around 10, 10% of the forest assets in Sweden, and we harvest around 5 million cubic meters from our own forest each year. Just to give some kind of ballpark.
But, but, was it the total harvesting volume in Sweden? Was that the question?
Yes, exactly.
Yeah, okay. Sorry. It's around 85 million cubic meters per year.
Okay, so it's roughly 10% additional supply.
Exactly.
The forest.
10, 15. Then between, I guess it will be 15%. And then also in addition, you have 3-4 million cubic meters on the Finnish side.
Yeah, yeah. Okay, that's great.
Yeah. Sorry, I didn't catch, yeah.
Thank you once again. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. And we'll now move on to our next question from Cole Hathorn of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I'd just like to follow up on sawnwood business. I just missed your commentary on what your expectation are, is of price declines quarter on quarter into Q1. And just on your saw logs, I know you said they were- they're gonna be up around 7%, but just to clarify, that is northern Sweden, I imagine, the rest of Sweden's saw log prices are lower. Just a clarification there.
Yeah, I mean, starting with the price development for finished products. As I said, from Q3 to Q4, we had the average price was down 5%. From Q4 over to Q1 2026, I guess we will have a flat price development. But what we didn't expect really was we have had another impact from a negative currency effect impact, of course, but I guess it will be close to zero. On the other hand, for us, as I said, we will have close to 10%... Yeah, 7-8%, you said, the increase in log prices. I mean, we cannot comment what will happen in other parts of Sweden.
I guess, the reason for that for us is that we, we thought it would be a very tight situation coming into the first quarter, not, not the least for spruce logs. So we bought, rather big volumes in the fourth quarter, and, and, I mean, we couldn't know or expect that we should have a big windfall in our region, between Christmas and New Year. And, if we would have known that, then of course, we, we should have acted differently, but now we have to take care of what we bought.
Also, and just a longer-term question on wood products. I mean, we've seen CBAM boosting the cost of cement, the cost of steel, you know, imports, restrictions, increasing prices of these construction raw materials. You know, do we see wood as kind of an underappreciated beneficiary? When, when do people look at the construction costs of, of sawn wood and say, "You know, we should start using more of this product," or is that just too far away into the future? And then following up on container board, we've seen some of the U.S. players talk about slightly better order books, slightly better demand. I'm just wondering, are you seeing any more positive trends in the container board and box side at this stage, or not yet?
I mean, starting with solid wood products, I guess we are pretty positive to the future market for solid wood products. Then again, it's always a balance between what you have to pay for the raw material and what can you get out from the market. As you know, more than 70% of the cost for a sawmill is related to the raw material, of course, so. But, I mean, we feel that the demand for solid wood products is, I guess, it's okay as it is just now, and we see an improving trend also for coming quarters now, and let's see where we will end up. But I think-
Q2 is usually.
Typically
Typically a stronger quarter.
Yeah, yeah. Structurally, I think that, I mean, in many cases, people they try to turn from, from also from, fossil side over to non-fossil side materials, and, I mean, that will also benefit, the solid wood business going, going forward. So I think we are positive, long term in, in this field. And then about containerboard, I guess we had... If we look, in, into last year, I mean, the, the consumption was up 1.5% during last, last year. And also, when you look at the box demand, as you saw maybe on the slide I did show, I mean, you have a positive, the trend is, is, positive.
Then again, I think what is harming the balance just now is that we have seen a lot of new capacity coming on stream, not for kraftliner. I mean, the only capacity in kraftliner is what we are providing in the market ourselves in from Obbola. But otherwise, in testliner, we've seen a lot of capacity coming on stream. Some has been closed, and I guess some more capacity will be closed. And I guess we have, for that reason, a little bit of chicken race just now out there, and let's see what whether, when, where and when that will- how and when that will end up. So I guess, but then you asked about the consumption. Honestly, I don't feel...
I think we are, it is rather slow market out there, at least for us being in Europe, and might be a little bit better in the U.S. and also in other regions, we have a slightly better demand. But again, the price is, of course, lower when we have to go overseas with our volumes. So that is. And that has also impacted the result for us as we are now ramping up Obbola, so.
Thank you.
That was not a very clear answer, but it was a try at least, so.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Pallav Mittal of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two of them. So firstly, can you talk a bit about the adverse mix impact that you highlighted, for your, pulp and the container board business, especially over the last couple of quarters? And do you expect that to continue in 2026, given the weakest demand that we have seen in Europe? And just, to follow up, what are your expectations on CTMP pricing in the near term?
Did you get the first one?
Can you repeat the first question, please?
Just asking about the adverse mix impact on your pulp and container?
Okay. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah, so what we saw in, especially in Q4, as Ulf mentioned, we had, lower delivery volumes in Europe due to a weaker market, which means that we sold a larger part in Q4 in, overseas market. And I think, that was partly because, I mean, the weak market, but also because that customers knew that the rebates were gonna increase, at the beginning of the year. So they ordered as little as possible, of course, during the quarter, since they know the rebates were kicking in, in the first of January. So I think you might have some positive effect there, but the weak market, I mean, we still expect that in Q1.
The second one was around CTMP. I don't know if I get you right, but I mean, the demand is still slow on CTMP, and I think we and also other producers are taking curtailments now, and we have a high energy price and so, I mean, we do a marginal calculation, and by that, we have a reduced capacity as it is just now from Ortviken. Price-wise, we have not seen any increase in rebates in 2026 in comparison with 2025, so the price is more or less sideways.
And the business we have in Europe is, it's okay, but then again, it's tough for us to come from Europe over to Asia, not the least, and make some money on it. So we monitor this carefully, and we do this marginal calculation, where we have to calculate on the marginal wood cost and also marginal energy cost for CTMP.
Sure. If I can just squeeze one more in, and this is regarding the first quarter of 2026. I appreciate there are a number of moving parts, but can you help us understand, I mean, sequentially, how we should think about the first quarter, especially given the declining prices, negative effect, but some support from the pulpwood cost side of things? So is it fair to assume a very similar EBITDA in Q1, despite having zero maintenance?
Yeah. So we won't, we don't give a direct guidance, but if you just look at the moving parts, we have the maintenance stop in the fourth quarter, and we won't have any major any maintenance stops in Q1. On the pulp side, we see no maintenance stop, but increased in rebates and negative currency effects as a negative and as positive, slightly lower pulpwood costs. In containerboard, it's, as Ulf mentioned, at least in the beginning of the quarter, this -20 EUR per ton in the prices, and then we'll have to see if this testliner prices goes through. And that might have a positive impact if it goes through at the end of the quarter or Q2.
And then in solid wood products, we see fairly stable prices, a bit better on spruce, but increasing sawlog prices. And then in forest, we harvest seasonally a bit lower in Q1 compared to Q4. And then other costs, OCC is slightly cheaper; also transportation costs have gone down slightly.
Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll now take our next question from Alexander Vilval of Pareto Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Just a quick question regarding harvesting. If you could elaborate a little bit on expected the harvesting volumes over sort of the next few years, and also, with regard to biological assets, what kind of long, sort of, term growth rate you see regarding harvesting in specifically? Thank you.
I mean, as I said, this year we reached 5.4 million cubic meters, and I guess next year we will, yeah, if not do that, as we have to support some forest owners in the windfall areas, we will do that, of course. But I mean, we will remain around 5 million cubic meters, so that's.
Yeah, and on biological assets, we expect it to be slightly lower, the valuation next year compared to this year, but we still have... I mean, we look at the long-term average trend price of wood raw material prices, and that will still increase even if the prices go down next year, the long-term average will still go up, but impact will be a bit lower next year compared to this year.
On volumes in that calculation?
Volume.
Long term.
No, the prices will, I mean, go up, and the volumes is based on our latest harvesting calculation. That would be unchanged.
Okay. Thanks.
Thank you. That was our last question, and I will now hand it back to the host for any closing remarks.
That concludes our presentation of the year-end report. Welcome back in April for our first quarter report. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.