Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (STO:SHOT)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Oct 26, 2023

Operator

Welcome to the Scandic Hotels Group Q3 2023 report. For the first part of the conference call, the participants will be in listen-only mode. During the questions and answer session, participants are able to ask questions by dialing star five on their telephone keypad. Now, I will hand the conference over to the speaker, CEO Jens Mathiesen, and CFO Åsa Wirén. Please go ahead.

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining this presentation of Scandic's Q3 2023. As was just said, I'm Jens Mathiesen. I'm the CEO of Scandic, and together with me, I have Åsa Wirén, who is our CFO. We will talk you through the quarters, as always, so let's jump straight into it, and please turn to page two. You probably already saw the results, but I'm very proud to present a new record quarter, that is another proof of how we have become a more efficient and profitable and even stronger Scandic. With the continued sharp focus on commercial excellence and efficiency, we deliver an eventful quarter, with all-time high net sales, stronger underlying results, new signings, and high guest satisfaction.

Market development was solid, with high demand from leisure, in combination with a good start to the important season for corporate travel and meetings as well. We sold more rooms and more room nights than we did last year, and occupancy increased to 71% in this quarter. This was actually an improvement from last year and slightly better than the performance of the overall Nordic hotel market. With high demand and continued positive price development in all our markets, RevPAR reached new all-time high levels. The hotel market is resilient against the high inflationary environment, and hotel stays continue to be prioritized for both business and pleasure. Our net debt was at a historically low level at the end of the quarter, and with strong financial position, we keep high pace to grow the portfolio and to build a stronger Scandic.

We have intensified collaborations with property owners, and it's very satisfying to see how we are growing the portfolio. During the quarter, we announced a new Scandic Go signing with 221 rooms in central Stockholm, which we presented in the Q2 report. We also opened our first Scandic Go in Stockholm this quarter with great success and interest from both guests and property owners. This creates, I think, good conditions for our growth ambition in this growing economy segment. In September, we also signed an agreement for two new hotels in Helsinki, and we also recently announced an extended strategic partnership with Oracle, and we are working at full speed to implement a complete cloud-based platform in all our hotels and central functions.

This is a very important step in our strategy, which is totally in line with what we have communicated before, to improve guest experiences and create an even more cost-efficient operation in total. I will come back to this later also in the presentation, but all in all, a very strong quarter. Moving on, please turn to page three, where you can see quarterly Adjusted EBITDA development since the beginning of 2020. Excluding one-offs, Adjusted EBITDA reached a new record level of SEK 1.142 billion, corresponding to a strong margin of 18.1%. Compared with the Q3 in 2019, it's a margin improvement of 2.2 percentage points. It's pleasing to see how we are improving the underlying results while building a stronger Scandic.

Including one-offs, we report an Adjusted EBITDA of SEK 1.173 billion. The performance in the quarter was driven by continued solid market development in combination with commercial excellence, high efficiency, and an overall higher activity level within Scandic. Also, we'll, of course, talk you through the financial development later in this presentation, but please turn to page four. Here, you can see the monthly market occupancy in the Nordic countries. The market development was solid in the quarter with demand in line with last year. Scandic's occupancy rate, as I mentioned earlier, increased to 71% in the quarter, which is an improvement compared to the same period last year, and slightly better than the performance of the overall hotel market in the Nordics.

The good demand was mainly driven by continued high levels of domestic and inter-Nordic travel, as well as international tourism. The occupancy compared with 2019 is explained by lower volumes of intercontinental travelers. However, this segment continues to recover. The market also had around 6% more rooms at the end of the quarter compared to the end of the Q3 in 2019. So please turn to page five. This is market data for average room rates for Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Denmark, indexed to the corresponding month in 2019. Prices continue to develop positively, and Scandic's average room rate in the quarter was 6% higher than in the same quarter last year, and 23% higher than in 2019. Also note that Finland is lagging other markets in September due to exceptionally strong prices in 2019.

As we have mentioned before, Finland held the presidency of the Council of the European Union in the second half of 2019, which resulted in very high room rates at that time, especially in September, October, and November. So prices is always a key priority for us, and with, I think, very solid occupancy rates, which we are seeing right now, we ensure that we maintain our focus to drive prices also going forward. Please turn to page six. Here you can see the markets, RevPAR development indexed to corresponding month in 2019. The development was strong in the quarter, with Norway continuing to lead the way with a RevPAR level that has been 33%-36% higher than in 2019.

Scandic reached a new record level with a RevPAR of SEK 933 in the quarter, compared with SEK 875 last year and SEK 807 in 2019. We also, as mentioned, had 6% more rooms at the end of this quarter, compared with the Q3 in 2019 . Please turn to page seven. Our increased focus on growing pipeline is showing results. During the quarter, we have strengthened our position in Helsinki and signed an exclusive agreement for two new hotels with a total of 459 rooms. It's a Scandic hotel and one Scandic Go.

This is our first Scandic Go in Finland, and as I mentioned, we see great interest in our new brand in this fast-growing economy segment from both guests and property owners, which gives us quite good confidence in our growth ambitions within this segment. The new hotel will be located in the new unique event area called Garden Helsinki, a few minutes outside Helsinki city center. This is a growing and very key destination and a milestone in Scandic's and Finland's growth journey. The hotels are expected to open in 2028 and will be certified according to the Nordic Swan Ecolabel before opening. During the quarter, we also announced a new Scandic Go signing with 221 rooms in central Stockholm, which you also highlighted in the Q2 presentation. Please turn to page eight.

During the quarter, we announced two new Signature Collection hotels to strengthen our offer and to capture the growing demand from leisure in the upscale segment. The hotels have been part of the pipeline for some time, and we are expected to open in Tromsø, 2025, and in August, 2026. I'm happy that we are strengthening the offer with another Signature Collection hotel in Norway, and that we are now opening our first one in Denmark. Please turn to page nine, where you can see the pipeline. With a strong financial position and strengthening organization within commercial and business development, we keep a high pace to further grow and optimize the portfolio.

At the end of the quarter, we had 1,499 new rooms in the net pipeline, which was 582 more than at the end of the previous quarter. I am pleased that we are strengthening our position in key markets, as well as bringing our first Scandic Go to Finland. As I mentioned in the previous quarter, we are increasing investment for renovations as well of existing hotels to create a more competitive portfolio. With our strong financial position, we are determined to get back to our target of maintenance CapEx of between 3%-4% of net sales. With that, please turn to page ten. Earlier this week, we announced the implementation of the complete cloud-based solution, Oracle Hospitality OPERA Cloud.

By connecting all our hotels and central functions on one platform, we will be able to create even better guest experiences and increase efficiency through improved steering, booking, and pricing. This will also allow our team members to spend more time creating value for our guests. One example of this is faster and smoother booking, and check-in and check-out processes. We see excellent opportunities to explore more economies of scale and increase growth and profitability over time with this cooperation. We expect all our hotels to be up and running on the platform in the Q2 next year. With that, please turn to page 11, and I hand it over to you, Åsa, to take us through some of the financials.

Åsa Wirén
CFO, Scandic Hotels

Thank you, Jens, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to page 12 and start off with the financial performance in the quarter. As mentioned, net sales increased by 5.2% to a new record level of SEK 6.3 billion. We also deliver a strong result with an Adjusted EBITDA of close to SEK 1.2 billion, including one-offs of SEK 31 million, and this corresponds to a margin of 18.6%. In this quarter, one-offs included a one-time electricity contribution in Sweden and compensation related to housing for refugees in Norway. Last year, we had one-offs of SEK 76 million in the Q3. If we exclude one-offs, Adjusted EBITDA reached a new record all-time high level of SEK 1.142 billion, with a margin of 18.1%.

This was an improvement, as Jens mentioned, by 2.2 percentage points compared with the Q3 in 2019. Thanks to our strong financial position, we have increased the activity level with focus on the overall IT landscape and the implementation of OPERA Cloud, as well as the commercial development and the launch of Scandic Go. This was partly reflected in increased costs for the central functions in the quarter. All in all, this was a strong quarter, driven by our commercial ability to capture good demand in our markets, with continued high efficiency and cost control. I'm pleased with how we grow the business and how we have become more efficient and profitable over time, and for sure, this will continue. We expect approximately 20 million SEK in one-offs in the Q4, related mainly to Norwegian housing for refugees.

Then please turn to page 13. We had a strong free cash flow in the quarter of SEK 899 million, and SEK 1.2 billion year-to-date. Working capital was impacted by repayment of variable rent debts for 2022 of a little bit more than SEK 700 million, and seasonality effects with a larger share of business customers and meetings in September. Altogether, we report a strong cash flow. As we mentioned in the previous quarter, we have had a cautious approach with low CapEx, but we are gradually ramping up and plan for higher expansion, renovation, and IT CapEx from this quarter going forward. Then let's please turn to page 14. We continue to reduce our debt level, which was at a historically low level at the end of the quarter.

Net debt decreased to SEK 1.9 billion in the quarter and corresponds to a net debt in relation to Adjusted EBITDA of 0.8 times on a rolling twelve months. Excluding the convertible bond, net debt only amounted to SEK 336 million, and the net debt in relation to Adjusted EBITDA of 0.1x . Net debt included SEK 1.6 billion related to the convertible bond and SEK 797 million related to deferred VAT and social security payments in Sweden. Due to the strong performance in the nine months of this year, a new rent debt of approximately SEK 400 million has been accrued for 2023. The majority of this will be settled, as you all know, during the first half of 2024.

Our available credit facility amounted to SEK 3.4 billion, and total available liquidity amounted to SEK 3.6 billion at the end of the quarter. Lastly, the convertible bond has its conversion price at SEK 43.36 and matures in a year from now in October 2024, with a potential dilution of 41.5 million shares. But as you all can see in the numbers, we have available funds to handle this. Then please turn to page 15, and here you can see the net financial items and impact from IFRS 16. Including IFRS 16, the reported financial net was minus SEK 510 million. Excluded for IFRS 16, the financial net was minus SEK 67 million. Non-cash convertible interest was SEK 43 million, and interest payments on bank loans decreased as a result of our lower debt level.

Ultimately, cash financial items amounted to SEK 22 million. So with that said, please turn to page 17, and back to you, Jens, for some final comments and what to see for the future.

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

Thank you very much, Åsa. Finally, some comments and reflections on the outlook from my side. I'm very proud to conclude that Scandic is standing stronger than ever before. With focus and persistence, we have taken important steps forward to become a more efficient and profitable company with a very strong financial position, all while increasing guest satisfaction. The good momentum from summer months has continued into the Q4, and we are on track for another strong full year performance. So it's continuing. Based on the current booking situation, we expect a solid Q4, with occupancy on par with the same period last year, but at higher prices. We are highly prepared for the future, and we are growing the business in a controlled manner with balanced investments and very high efficiency.

I want to thank all our employees for their fantastic commitment, and our owners and guests for their trust in Scandic. With that said, I think, let's hand it back to operator for the Q&A.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please dial star five on your telephone keypad to enter the queue. If you wish to withdraw your question, please dial star five again on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from Karl-Johan Bonnevier from DNB Markets. Please go ahead.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Yes, good morning. Congratulations to an excellent set of numbers and good, very good development in the market. Just to pick your brains a little first on the strong performance in the quarter, and also you have alluded to comparing it and to the same quarter in 2019. Is it possible to say, maybe give us some sort of bridge in the way how you see the underlying performance in that kind of context? What kind of structural gains have you managed to create in the platform compared to pre-COVID?

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

Yeah. Good morning, Karl-Johan, and thank you for the question. No, we have. I think there's a lot of things we could say about it, because we have been extremely focused at Scandic to become a stronger company after the pandemic. And we have been holding back, you know, when it comes to adding a lot of resources, especially above hotel level, meaning that we want to maintain, you know, a very high efficiency level, also after to support, you can say, the improvement of margins going forward. So, there's been a lot of prioritizations when it comes to resources. When that is said, I think we have also done a lot on hotel level. We are extremely strong in the commercial field right now.

We have added quite some resources to secure that we are on top of, let's say, the market when it comes to gaining and taking advantage of the opportunities, both from the online sales, OTA partnerships, and also from the good cooperation we have with both corporate and leisure guests in local market. So there's a lot of initiatives that we have been doing, but we have mainly had a large focus on becoming, you know, a stronger company on the cost side and be agile and speedy when it comes to the commercial activities.

And then what we also said in this call, and as you hear, we have actually, it's now we start talking about our partnership with Oracle, which is to move to a cloud-based solution. We have actually been working on that for approximately a year. So we have been working on preparing ourselves for this and negotiating the right agreement with Oracle. And now we have already started this transformation, meaning that we, within the next, you know, we will be done by first half next year in moving all our hotels onto a cloud-based platform. That also adds a lot of opportunities going forward.

So Scandic is doing quite a lot of good stuff right now, and it sees in the numbers that we are quite successful in getting result out of it.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Definitely. And coming back to the Oracle implementation, is there a system kind of gain coming out of it, from the cost side? Or you alluded to a lot of opportunities to drive efficiency and, say, on the hotel level, and where is the gains, if you put it like that?

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

Over time, it will be both, because the system itself is actually cheaper than the old platform. So cost-wise, there's a gain immediately on that. But you can say, when you look forward, this allows us to add and both attach and detach different kind of systems to the cloud-based solution. Meaning that we can add a lot of features when it goes forward, you know, especially for the guest journey, speeding up the check-in, check-out phases. This makes it possible to even include, you know, mobile keys for the rooms and electronic solutions for checking in, checking out, you know, on your mobile, as a guest, over time.

That will save cost in the receptions, of course, because over time, more and more people will do that themselves. And it also has a lot of commercial advantages because we can give customers, you know, possibilities for ancillary sales opportunities. You know, book your restaurant, do you want to upgrade for the next room category, et cetera, which we can do much easier electronically. So there will be a lot of commercial upsides, but also, it's a more cost-efficient system.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Excellent. And I guess it creates scalability for you when you now start to look at expanding the portfolio again to much more focused.

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

Yeah, and we have had an, we call it internally One Scandic, but I can even spread that to you on this call. Because what we call One Scandic is that we want to benefit from being as efficient as we are, as—and taking the best of everything, and take the best version of all things we do, and do that all over. So we are extremely focused across the management team to secure that we continue to find opportunities to become even stronger, even though we have come far.

Åsa Wirén
CFO, Scandic Hotels

One can also add to that, that I don't think that this is a kind of a one or two booms.

To improve margins, y ou know, we are in a volume business, so it's rather that, you know, finding the nitty-gritty things, doing good work together with our colleagues every day. I think that is important to bear in mind, that that's the way we actually work with the margin every day.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Turning to your Q4 outlook, it sounds like it's very much a continuation of what you have seen in Q2 and Q3. Could you allude a little to maybe what you see on the meeting bookings and pre-bookings and similar kind of things? Are we back to similar patterns as pre-COVID? Is that kind of visibility you got now?

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

It's always difficult because you still see some differences like I mentioned. We're still lacking some of these big congresses, for instance. And we also compare with 2019, if you look pre-pandemic, we compare with 2019, which was extremely strong in Finland due to this EU presidency. But overall, we see in general booking pattern, we see a very stable trend, which you have seen also in the Q3, and this continues. So we expect us to be in line or maybe slightly above, but I would say very close to be in line on occupancy, but definitely on higher prices. And we maintain a huge focus on being more efficient in the operation.

Then you need to bear in mind, all of you, that we created nearly SEK 1.4 billion, sorry, SEK 1.2 billion in this quarter. And it's a very large and strong quarter. Q4 is quite a small quarter. So remember that, you know, if you take the result in Q4, it is, as one quarter, maybe a bit less than just the month of September, result-wise. So we should definitely get the best out of it, and we have a lot of focus, but it is not the quarter that will make it or break it for Scandic, you know. This is a fairly small quarter.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Now, very good execution in the high season, no doubt. Do you dare to raise the outlook to 2024? What are you planning for? What are you hoping for, and how are you preparing for it?

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

No, but we are preparing a lot, and you know, these initiatives on the digital side enables us to benefit even further for efficiency gains in the operation, which of course also is preparing for anything that might happen in the economy. I think you should bear in mind that when you look into the economy and all the concerns that we see on the share market and stock market right now, you know, then look at the different sectors. And right now, globally, the hospitality sector is doing extremely well, maybe not on the stock price, but definitely on the result side. So we keep up very high momentum.

We keep up a high momentum in the industry, and there's still a willingness to prioritize, you know, traveling and events as a person, rather than spending on some other private stuff. So it's holding up both for businesses and for leisure. And when we look into next year, that is what we expect. But of course, we prepare for any adjustment that might come and Scandic has proven during the last year that we are extremely fast in adapting. So if we see a decline in 1% or 2% point on the top line versus expectations, we immediately can adjust on the manning side and on the cost side. So we are well prepared.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Sounds promising. One last for me. Just looking at the new segment Go, and then also that you are starting to expand the Signature segment again with listing a couple of the assets you have in your room portfolio into that segment. What kind of potential do you see for the two segments? So to say, if you're looking at the, say, maybe Nordic context, how many Go hotels would you be able to fit in without, say, diluting your current Scandic franchise and similar kind of things for the Signature operations?

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

Without setting a timeline on it, we see potential of maybe 70 to 80 hotels over time. How long that will take us, but maybe in the Nordics, some 70 to 80 hotels. We see that there's room for that in the market, in the next coming, let's say, 10 to 15 years. But, of course, the market develops. It could be that this change and that the opportunities grow even further. But right now, we see that without diluting on the current business. So we see great growth potential within the region.

Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Equity Research Analyst, DNB Markets

Excellent. Sounds promising. Thank you very much, and all the best out there.

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

Thank you very much.

Operator

There are no more questions at this time, so I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Jens Mathiesen
President and CEO, Scandic Hotels

Thank you very much, operator, and, and thank you all for dialing in. I understand that you're overwhelmed by, by the strong results we are delivering and, and the positive outlook. So, if you have further questions, please, you know where to find us. Just give us a call, and I wish you all, a great day, on behalf of both me and Åsa. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you.

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