Thank you very much, operator, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining this presentation of Scandic's 4th quarter results. I'm here as usual together with our CFO, Jan Johansen and our Head of Investor Relations, Henrik Bikstva. If you start please turn to Page 2 for a brief summary of the quarter. As we have previously communicated, we had a weak Q4 with increased government restrictions in all our markets. Our average occupancy rate was 23% and our adjusted EBITDA turned negative.
We are though convinced that we have seen the worst of this exceptional crisis and that the wholesale markets will gradually recover during 2021. There is obviously still some uncertainty on how fast the market will pick up as it is so dependent on external factors such as infection and death rates, how fast the vaccinations our carried out, etcetera. But we do see light in the end of the tunnel. We have during the past few months focused a lot on negotiating with our landlords, and we have managed to reach agreements on total rent reductions of close to SEK 900,000,000. We have high focus on financing and liquidity.
Our available liquidity today is around SEK 1,400,000,000 and we expect our cash outflow to gradually decrease as occupancy picks up. And we still believe that we are able to generate positive cash flow at an occupancy rate around 50%. We are obviously working on operational measures to further reduce the negative cash flow near term. In addition, we have today announced that we soon will present an owner backed solution to strengthen our financial position. On Page 3, you can see the market occupancy development in the Nordic countries.
January February were normal months in terms of market occupancy last year. And our revenues were up year on year in both months. Then we saw a dramatic decline during the spring, and we reached all time low levels in April in all our markets. The market recovered during the summer driven by domestic leisure demand. And in Norway, for instance, market occupancy went from 7% in April to 54% in July.
That shows how quickly things can improve when restrictions are eased. There aftermarkets gradually slowed down again during the autumn on the back of increased infection rates and stricter government restrictions. As you can see, December what's the weakest month in the Q4 in all Nordic countries, and January was pretty much in line with December. Scandic's average occupancy was around 15% both in December and January, but that was somewhat affected, of course, by the fact that we took the decision to close half of our hotels during Christmas and New Year holiday. I should add also that we have seen a slight pickup from low levels in the past few weeks.
For February, we average occupancy to be closer to 18%. Please turn to Page 4. Here we show the monthly market RevPAR trends in the Nordic countries. For the Nordic region as a whole, average RevPAR was down by around 65% in the past quarter. Average prices are obviously down, but that is partly explained by a negative mix effect as the biggest decline have been in the Capital Cities, as you can see on Page 5.
Market occupancy was just above 20% in Stockholm and around 16%, 17% in Oslo, Helsinki and Copenhagen in the 4th quarter. This is less than a third of what is normal. And these nations account for a big part of our business in a normal year. The average occupancy outside the capital cities have been around 30% in all Nordic cities and countries. We have some smaller destinations where demand has held up reasonably well, thanks to specific industrial projects.
And we do also have a few wholesales in Western Norway, for instance, with quarantine business for the oil and offshore industry, but these are really exceptions. Please turn to Page 6. As we already have told early on, we have acted quickly and forcefully during 2020. When we saw the effect from the pandemic, we immediately took measures to protect our cash flow and to reduce our costs. Already in the Q2, we had cut the non rent cost base by around 60%.
This means that we will enter the recovery with a very competitive cost base. And it should enable us to reach good profitability at occupancy levels that are lower than what we saw before the pandemic. We did also carry out a big refinancing in June, as you all know. We have, in the recent months, put a lot of effort into negotiating with our landlords, and that has, to date, resulted in total rent reductions of around SEK 900,000,000. Please turn to Page 7.
I would say that the dialogues with the landlords have been constructive in general. Out of the total agreed all of the rent rebates most relates to 2020 to 2022. And a little more than half of the total amount is for this year. In relation to this, we have also extended some of our lease contracts. So the total duration of our wholesale portfolio has increased by 1 year from around 11 to 12 years.
That even includes our signed pipeline. We have also agreed on postponing the planned opening dates for a couple of our hotels in the pipeline for this year. At present, some 15% of our lease contracts expire by the end of 2022 25% by the end of 2025. This will give us the opportunity to renegotiate, of course, the terms, and we could potentially even also exit a few of them if we don't come to the right terms. Please turn to Page 8.
On this page, you can see our signed pipeline at year end. The pipeline has been somewhat reduced during the past year. Our only signing in 2020 was the takeover of Scandik, Ireland, the start in which was near AlandAirport in Stockholm. This was a takeover where the previous operator went bankrupt and we got it on very, very attractive terms with fully variable rents. The hotel was opened in early January this year.
We have several planned openings scheduled for this year 2021. As of today, we have agreed on postponing a couple of the planned openings such as Grand Central in Helsinki and then Erpoort in Copenhagen. And there might be additional adjustments to the timetable depending on how the market develops near term and what we can agree, of course, with our counterparts. There's also a chance that some of the configurations could somewhat be modified. For instance, in one of the hotels we work on in Olds Harbour, which is scheduled for 2024.
So if we haven't started the construction, we are overlooking whether some of this construction should be changed in the configuration. Obviously, we are constantly also working on optimizing both our portfolio and our pipeline. Please turn to page 9 for a few comments on the outlook. We are convinced that the wholesale markets will recover during this year, 2021, and that markets will start to normalize during and after the summer. During the first half of the year, we expect a recovery where occupancy is increasing month by month, mainly driven by domestic and intranordic leisure travel as vacations gain momentum end restrictions begin to ease.
We believe that the pace of the recovery will gradually increase and that occupancy in the summer will exceed last year's level. Crucial to this scenario is that the infection and death rates continue to decrease until the vaccinations are completed. We expect a gradual market normalization from the summer and onward when we should see more sports and cultural events, meetings and increased business travel. Initially, we expect that demand will be driven by intra Nordic travel, which normally accounts for just over 80% of Scandic's total guest nights. And with that, I will hand it over to Janne to take you through some of the financial part of this presentation.
Thank you. Thank you, Jens. I will go quite fast through the revenues and results, but be a little bit more, I will say, detailed around the cash flow here later on. I will also go through what we expect in terms of governmental support for this year as it is an important component for us right now in stabilizing the results and cash flow. Looking at Q4, as you can see here in the exhibit here, you can see here that we lost it was a very, very difficult quarter.
We lost SEK 3,400,000,000 in top line, as can see here, we had came down to SEK 1,400,000,000 in revenues for 1 quarter. And we had a declining trend during the quarter, as you probably are aware. The average occupancy through this quarter was 23%. Starting up a little bit north of 40% in the beginning and then 15% in December. And I think the last 2 weeks in December was on some 10%, 12%, something like that.
So I think let's hope that, that was the bottom actually here and that we can go from that bottom here. Also when it comes to the sales content, of course, the meeting business and the SMB business has been particularly hurt due to restrictions that we are not able to organize meeting business. We have had just in our restaurants and so on, which means that, that sales content has been very much difficult to sell during this period. And those restrictions are still prevailing here. But to take away some of that will, of course, be very, very supportive for that part of the business.
As you can see here also, we have a rate decline, primarily predominantly a mix effect as there was customer segment, which is present in our hotels right now. Usually, we have the lowest prices. So we expect that the rates should go in the right direction when the customer mix start to normalize later on during the spring. As I saw, 75% down, as I said as Jan said here, a particular hit in the major cities, smaller cities, regional cities doing better, of course, here. And that is due to the customer mix with more project business.
We have some quarantine business, as Jens mentioned, and so on. What has been particularly different between Q3 and Q4 this that individual lecture has been so weak. You might remember that we said that the Saturdays what the new Tuesday is here during Q3. That is not true anymore. So actually, the weekend has been quite weaker during Q4 and in the beginning of the year, with one exception, and that was last Saturday here, which was actually very good.
If we then turn to the next page, you
can see the adjusted EBITDA minus SEK 2.82 billion, not too bad during these circumstances. However, we have rent rebates, part of the negotiations which we have had with the landlord, which have been retroactive into 2020. And those have been canceled in with EUR 180,000,000 here in Q4 2020. Also governmental support with 226 €1,000,000 into the numbers here. We had a full year number excluding furlough of a little bit more than €700,000,000 here from governmental support.
The underlying if you take away the rent rebate, you take away the fixed government contribution to fixed costs. You have an underlying number of around SEK 700,000,000 for the 4th quarter there. You can also see here that the item center cost and group adjustment was very, very good during the quarter. It's true we have reduced center costs, but that's not the full explanation here. We have also released provisions here with regard to incentive programs, Serta at Serta, which has had supported the result.
It will have a bit of a onetime effect here. And the flip side of the coin of those I'll come back to that in a moment. I think we should go through next figure's chair, the governmental support here. I think this is important here. What we do expect for foreign governmental support for fixed costs for this first troublesome month during the year here, which we have calculated in the June this year.
It's around SEK 400,000,000. How safe are those? Yes. The Norwegian program what is decided and safe and we continue to apply for that. That's approximately half of this.
Also Sweden now are taking Schon, and we are ready to apply for that as soon as those web portals are opened. And that would give another, I would say, euros 97,000,000 is the rule here. And then we probably will have the same solution in Germany and Denmark a little bit later on. So that's the reason why we calculate with this SEK 400,000,000 during the spring. Of those, maybe some SEK 40,000,000, SEK 40,000,000 is already paid out this year.
It's also some we have also been able here, according to Swedish regulation here, to continue to postpone the VAT and Social Security charges. We have an initial amount of SEK240,000,000 that is now possible to postpone 1 more year into the big year in year 2022. But on top of that, we had actually been granted additional credits of SEK 200,000,000. So the total amount is now SEK 440,000,000, which is due a little bit more than 1 year from now on. So it is, of course, very, very helpful for the cash flow here.
Now on the SEK 200,000,000 extra now, they are actually now included in the number, which I will come back to in a moment. Also very, very good for us in order to control internal efficiency is that the furlough opportunities are continued in all the countries during the spring here. So that will give us an opportunity to work with internal efficiency with actually making people redundant. So we believe that this is a very, very flexible way and that will help, I think, both the employees and also Scandic to come through this last part of the pandemic. So with that next page here, the cash flow, I think, is on that page here, yes.
If we go through this one, it's quite a big difference between the adjusted EBITDA and the free cash flow for the Mann beer. And we need to take you through that. This is minus 1.3. So if you would look upon the underlying cash here. We estimate that, that is around SEK 300,000,000.
And how can I arrive on that number here when we have the astonishing SEK 1 point free in this picture here?
And this has been
a little bit triggered of the rent negotiations because that has meant that we have settled the rent balances a little bit earlier than we thought we should do. So some of these rent rebates has been how to say taken against these rent balances. And we have approximated that number to be around SEK 400,000,000 for the 4th quarters. Of this change in working capital, around half of that is connected to settling these rent balances. It's also so that you remember that I talked about the governmental support of fixed costs.
Only a third of that was actually paid out during Q4. A big part, SEK 150,000,000 came actually into the beginning of 2021 here. So and then as I mentioned, we had a release some provisions here also here at onetime during Q4. So I think as a good guidance, as a good benchmark at the North Defense level of 23%, underlying cash flow around €100,000,000 or around €300,000,000 here. You can also see expansion CapEx and investment in existing operation in total SEK 150,000,000 a quarter.
That will probably also serve as a good benchmark here going forward here into the spring. Despite the high number of new openings here, we have worked diligently with that and see to that we will trying to be able to keep the cash outflow for mid investments on around SEK 150,000,000 a quarter here. So that this debt and I think also when we're looking into now the cash flow into this year here. Monthly cash flow will be predominantly then the function of the occupancy, as Janssen. But you should also remember that of this SEK 400,000,000 in anticipated governmental support, I would say, that around SEK 350,000,000 has not yet been paid out and that should support the cash flow going forward.
Starting point right now in this week is SEK 1,400,000,000 including the SEK 2 other 1,000,000 in tax credit here. So then I think you had all the data points here in order to understand this going forward. Sensitivity done just as a benchmark. If you have 1% in change in occupancy, debt impacts, the cash flow with some SEK 10,000,000 to SEK 15,000,000 a month before investments that could serve as a real decent benchmark for you when thinking through this. So 1% in Nokia Brands Exchange makes €10,000,000 to €15,000,000 a month approximately.
So with that, I think I leave the word back to you, Jan. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Janne. If you please turn to the last Page 16, some a few concluding remarks from my side. We believe that Scandig is well positioned for a market recovery. Following, of course, these massive cost reductions that we did in 2020. We enter this year with a very slim cost base, and we have improved our ability to generate very good margins at lower occupancy levels than before.
On top of that, we also have a very proven efficient operating model and we benefit from unique economies of scale in both in the operation, but also within sales and marketing. We do, in my opinion, have a very attractive hotel portfolio and also pipeline. And we do offer by far the most extensive hotel network in the Nordics. We are now successively opening up the hotels that have been closed. So looking at the Christmas time, we even had around half of the hotels being closed.
And when we enter into beginning of March, most of the hotels are reopened and only approximately some 10 to 12 are still being closed. So the majority of our hotels are open for business when we enter into beginning of March. And finally, we have a customer offering, which is for all. Our call is the broad mid market with the which let's say Nordic guests normally is accounting for more than 80% of our guests. So we believe that will be the driver when market starts to normalize during this year.
With that, I hand it back to you, operator, for the Q and A.
Thank Our first question is from Adela Deschan of Handelsbanken. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, everyone, and thank you so much for taking my questions. Questions. First and foremost, I want to ask a little bit more about your financial position and if you could give us some more color on the Financial Solutions that you say you will announce shortly.
Bo. Yes. Yes.
No, I think we try to be as open as we always are. We are working right now on finding the right solution for this. And we have a very good cooperation and dialogue together with our main shareholders to find the right way of handling it. I think as you all recognize, we today have this SEK 1,400,000,000, but it's also obvious that I, as a CEO, I want to operate a company that has enough liquidity even in these tough times. So that's why we look over how to deal with that also on loan.
So we are working on solutions, but haven't decided yet. If we had decided exactly what to do, then we would have announced it today. But we are working on it, and I expect us to come shortly with a solution for the company.
Can I then ask what's the reason for commenting on it in the report is if you're not able to give us any more details at this point?
We think we are it's very openly obvious that we, together with the owners, want to deal with this and thereby already have started the work. We just haven't settled up. And therefore, I think it's fair not to be silent about it and you would question a lot what do you expect to do in the future and then in short time Present with a Solution. So we like to be very open to the market, which we always are, and that's why we also communicate that we are working with a solution.
But obviously, I mean, we had I mean, obviously, we would have liked to be much more clear and definite on this. But the fact is that we aren't, but we cannot really keep you in the dark either and say that we don't do work with it. So I think it's of course, you need to take a decision Cinera. And we took the decision we need to tell you that we have something cooking.
All right. But could you tell us, is it more About surviving in the current situation that we're in? Or is it more of like an offensive decision To preparing for the recovery that you're expected to enter into.
You can say that with the recovering pace that we expect, you can say that enables us hopefully to take us through with the current cash position and liquidity position. But I don't want to be, let's say, on the risk of that. So I want to be sure that we have enough liquidity even if, let's say, restrictions are continuing a few months further ahead. That's why we work with different scenarios to do this in good order and in good time and not in a stress situation. So it might be a situation that also secures that we have strong liquidity or good liquidity when the market now is recovering in order to act in such a market situation.
All right. And then some clarity on rent reductions that you've already agreed upon with your landlords. You say that rent For base amounted to just under €200,000,000 in Q4. So does this €900,000,000 that you're talking about, does that include or Was the SEK 180,000,000 in Q4?
It's included in that. So the total amount is around SEK 900,000,000 where we accounted for a certain part in Q4. And more than half of these €900,000,000 is related to this year and then some to next year.
Got it. Okay. And then finally on your expectations for recovery, Well, I believe that you most likely will continue to benefit from the staycation trend this summer as well. But then we all know that you have a lot of exposure to business and corporate travelers and that drives demand after the summer months. So what are your expectations for this segment to recover.
And do you expect it to ever go back to normal levels?
Well, it's very difficult to predict what would be the normal levels in the future, we don't really know. But I think when we look at crisis we have seen before financial downturn, etcetera, we know that market has a tendency to come back pretty fast and we also know that people tend to forget very fast and they want to come back. So I think we will see that the initial, let's say, growth rates will definitely be driven by leisure and the local corporate. We are quite strong in both areas of the business. We need to be with operating 270 hotels and equally as many leisure days as corporate days.
So we're actually quite strong in both segments. And then but I think we definitely have seen that it has been tough the last year when it comes to the corporate traveling. And I think we will see a lot of leisure in the beginning of this year until summer and midsummer will definitely be a lot of leisure driven. And then I think as of August and ahead, we will see a much bigger impact coming back from the corporate. Right now, you can say the corporate traffic we actually do have in the hotels is related to, let's say, infrastructure workers and the project business and things like that.
Okay. But what we've all Nissan and things like that.
Okay. But we've also seen throughout the pandemic that digital interactions Have spiked up tremendously. So how do you prepare to maybe not best capitalize on that, but can you do anything? Well,
we have even during yes, I think it's a good question actually because we have actually even during this difficult year, we have actually introduced 2 major things. We have introduced a co working solution, which means that all Scandi Hotels open for coworkers, meaning that instead of people coming back to sit in the office, they can actually go to the nearby Scandic Hotel and work from there. And we have a very clear solution for that and was the 1st chain to initiate that in the market already just after the summer last year. On top of that, we do work with different digital solutions when it comes to meetings so that we actually offer strong digital solutions. So you can go to Scandic in a meeting room and have the best digital solution to have your online meetings with the rest of the world if you don't have those solutions at home.
So I think we are looking also to take, let's say, cater for that change segment in the future, which definitely will be more digital than it was in the past.
All right. And then just finally on the ScandicGo concept that you announced just about a year ago during your Capital Markets Day. Obviously, that's probably not top of mind for you at the moment. But are you still Do you still is this still something that you plan on launching once we reached a more normalized date pandemic.
Yes, absolutely. As Candigo is here to stay long term, you can say. Of course, we were a bit stopped by the pandemic. So it is on hold until we see now that we changed, but we are still working on this even have had good time now to work a bit more on the different concepts. But definitely, ScandiGo will be launched, and we expect a lot of Scan that goes in as part of our growth plans in the future.
All right. Thank you guys so much for taking my questions.
Thank you. Kepler.
Thank you. Our next question is from Stefan Andersen of SEB. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you. Just three questions from me. First, and maybe I missed it in your presentation, but 1st on the rent reduction of the 900 there. Is there any of those that are that there's a clawback or some kind that could be altered if the markets recover quickly? Or are the NAND 900 already in your hands, so to speak.
Yes. It's a combination Stefan Janne here. It's a combination of 2 things. You can say one is, of course, a plain reduction of the fixed rents, which we do have in some contracts. The other component is a reduction of the guaranteed level, which means, of course, that and the variable part remains the contracts.
I mean, of course, it could be less than SEK 900,000,000. But the reason for that is, in that case, that it has gone much better than we anticipated. So that would probably be good news anyways. So that's how it works. It's both of kind of a fixed reduction and it's also a lowering of the guarantee.
So you can say the SEK 900,000,000 is an estimate what that lowering of guaranteed level would mean. That's the reason why we're right up to 900,000,000.
Okay. Okay. So and when you say up And then, Andre, you say it's an estimate. Is it based on your estimate given a recovery during the summer and then onwards? Or could it be more than SEK 900,000,000 if things go really bad, which would update for the year?
That would need that we continue negotiations and more negotiations than SEK900 1,000,000, but not from the present agreement. Okay.
And so if I understood, yes, I don't think you can split it up, I guess.
I mean Because if you have a
recovery, I guess the minimum rents are not the savings you do on the minimum rents are not valid as the market comes back. So maybe if you could elaborate on how much of the NOK 900,000,000 is relating to minimum rent, but maybe that's too difficult. Sorry, if I Sorry, Pat. Yes,
but I think, Stefan, when to give you guidance here. So I think you should even if we had a very strong autumn. I mean, very much of these months where we are sitting right now will be very, very difficult. So I think I would say that if it goes really, really well, it might be €900,000,000 it might be €800,000,000 or something like that. But it's not tires.
Yes.
And it's also important for us to be very clear that a lot of these accounts that we have negotiated or rebates we have negotiated is related especially to the difficult first half. So being part of it is now in Q1 and Q2, so where we really need more support. And we expect the recovery from the summer and ahead to be stronger. And therefore, you'd say, we trust that we will not be that far from this amount.
So when you're modeling, I think you should assume some 65% in the first half and the remainder in the second.
Perfect. Thank you. And then the second question, talking about the financials there, the EUR 1,400,000,000. You I mean, you mentioned the tax credit. I think you said SEK 200,000,000 which is postponed a year, if I'm correct.
Is there anything else that you've been given, so to speak, as of today relating to the 1400,000,000? Is there any 1 off. No more subcontractors. No, no. I just mean, is there any outstanding payments that you have been release from and repay later this year from some of the landlords or similar.
Noah. As I said, I think what we have done here is we have cleared some the remaining government support from 2020 has been paid in here during the beginning of the year. And we have also set the outstanding part of the rent balances. So I think as I said earlier, if you start with 1.4, you may or may not believe my projection on governmental support for the rest of the year. And then as I said, Dan, you can just calculate with your own, how to say, recovery here in terms and use what I said AirEngine as a benchmark from Q4.
I think that's the way to look upon it here. So it's basically reasonably clean now. What is important to remember, of course, is that we are paying rents according to contract house. We are paying we are prepaying the rents as we normally do, though. So it means that every quarter, you will have a little bit of a dip there.
Okay, good. And the final question, this is, of course, difficult to answer, but your more you're very experienced from the hotel industry and have been in it for a long time. So looking back on recessions, Shins, which is very different to what we have today. There's always been a little bit of a trick tricky to recover price. Customers are getting used to lower prices and there's a little bit of an oversupply.
So you know how it is. It takes a few years to recover. What is your best guess in the situation we have here? Is the market is the industry better at maintaining prices going back 20 years? Or what is your thinking about that?
I know it's very difficult, but just flying at
least. It's a very I'm old enough to be I've been part of many crises before, so I know exactly what you are questioning. And I think if you look at back to the both the financial downturn we had in 2018, and even in the crisis we have had in some 10 years before that. You're definitely right that market has changed quite a lot today. All wholesale chains do work with revenue management.
We have a lot of support from international systems like ideas, etcetera, which we all use that is definitely helping us. So a lot of the price, you would say the Deepa Drop. We'll definitely also be linked to the different segments. And of course, we expect some of the, let's say, well paid segments like rich Americans coming in. That might not happen during the autumn.
It might only happen, let's say, in 2022 ahead. So we don't expect a lot of international traveling at all even in the autumn. Even though we open up and we might open all the borders, we think that we will work with the InterNordic business as the pre-one. And then of course, then we are missing some of the well paid Americans, France and a lot of British, etcetera, and that will come later. So I think we will be better at working with prices as an industry today than we were 10 or 20 years ahead a lot ago.
But definitely, it will take us some time. We will not be able to deliver the same average room rates as you saw in 2019. That will take years like to bring back the occupancy levels.
Okay. Thank you. That's all for me. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Jamie Rollo of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. First of all, I'm just wondering about the confidence in or the hope that the summer occupancy above last year. Is there anything you're seeing in sort of forward leisure or other bookings that gives you that confidence. I mean, I appreciate it some time away, but any indications there would be helpful.
Well, first of all, I think we've if you compare with last year, as I mentioned before, we were at all time low levels in April of some 6% nearly and 8% in May. And right now, we talk about 10% in this month and let's say, a growing occupancy level in the coming months. Just by that, we have a much better XIPPOINT that we did a year ago. And then we also saw how fast and the speed of, let's say, the vacation actually will hit us light going from Sweden in Norway from 7%, we mentioned to 53% in July last year. So I think we have a lot of confidence in why it is what it is.
And this, of course, linked also to the fact of the spread of this vaccination programs, you can say, and the speed of that. Even though we are a bit slow in some of these markets, we still think that most of the population will be vaccinated by the end of June. And therefore, I think we have a lot of, let's say, facts linked to this expectation.
I think it's relevant in
the forward looking that support us.
Well, I think we have a lot of, let's say, request also from travel agencies, etcetera, working with this. And I think we will probably see a lot of the guests are waiting definitely because they know that right now there's enough capacity in the market. So it's not that difficult. But we also see in our home region in the Nordics that it is nearly impossible now to book a summerhouse. All of the summerhouses are fully booked.
So there's a bit panicking situation. And if prices goes up, then people try to buy a summer house instead. And of course, due to that, they will seek other solutions. So we are looking at application already now, but it's too early to say that it will boom. But definitely, I feel very comfortable that we look into a especially July ahead that will be much better than what we saw
a year ago. Yes. And to add some color on that. I think when we last year here, I mean, even if the July on average was decent, it was an extremely high demand in some outskirt hotel and regional hotels and so on. But we should remember that the cities were extremely weak Slide July Stockholm Copenhagen and also on Helsinki and so on.
So the reason why we say or express that it has the potential to be better or will be better is that we see that the demand in the big cities should be higher than last summer because there is reason to believe that we will have fewer restrictions this summer than we had last summer. And that would mean that you get the reason to travel to Stockholm. You get the reason to travel to Copenhagen. So that's how we have worked it out here. So you see how we have reasons.
So we don't expect it to be better in maybe Kalinstad or other nice cities in Sweden. We expect it to be better in Stockholm, Copenhagen
and so on.
That's the reason why we arrived on that conclusion.
Thanks. And then when you say you expect to reach a good level of profitability even at lower occupancy levels. Could you give us a feeling for what occupancy level you need get to the sort of 11% pre COVID margins.
Well, we can say that we have all over been cutting a lot of cost. And if you look at the support office cost and head office cost, we are nearly half of what we were before in terms of manning. And of course, we are extremely slim in the operation as well. So all over, for sure, we will be able to bring, let's say, good results on lower levels. Of course, these why it's difficult to be extremely specific when it comes to the exact percentage.
It's not because we don't know hotel by hotel, but it's all related to recovery in, let's say, big cities versus the outskirts. And of course, it's very important for us, if we get the bigger cities up to speed, then that's very, very important for also for the net results. So it depends eventually on mix between cities and countryside. But for all hotels, we will be more profitable than we were before on the same levels.
Okay. And then finally, I appreciate you can't give us the detail of the financial strengthening you're talking about. But is it a fair assumption given you're talking about liquidity strengthening, is it a fair assumption for us to make that new equity Wolfram Partners Fundrise.
I think we have already been extremely open to say that we work with different scenarios or different solutions, and we do this together with our major shareholders. So we can really not say more than that already now. If we had that precise solution, we would have presented it today. Unfortunately, we Louis Vuitton, but we are working on this and expect to deliver more information very shortly.
To ask it another way, the statement talks about aligning with the owners. So could the one of the solutions be offering discounted shares straight to your owners? Or could you rule that out?
We really don't have more comments on this because we haven't settled the final agreement on which would be the right solution for us. We are working with different scenarios and expect to present the solution very shortly.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
Our next question is from Andre Juilliard of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good morning, gentlemen, and thank you for taking my question. Well, my first question was more or less the same compared to Jamie's 1. Some more color about the refinancing solutions you are thinking about. But another way to ask it was around the about the cash burn. If we look at how much cash you've burned in January, February, what kind of cash burn can we anticipate in Q1 and in Q2 considering that base effects are becoming easier in Q2.
But as you mentioned, you are expecting a full recovery before summer full recovery, I mean, decent level of occupancy before summer and probably more in the autumn. So could you give us some more color about the cash firm you are expecting in the 1st part of the year to allow us to have a better visibility on how much the new announcement could be about.
Thank you. Thank you, Andre, for that question. I did my utmost to try here to give you all that coordinates. You can, of course, calculate yourself here. No, but of course, we make a lot of scenarios internally here.
Of course, we do that. So trust us, we are calculating this back and forth. I think, as I said here, the way because I think this is, as I said earlier, and I'm not give you a number, but I will say that this will be very, very much a function of the occupancy going forward. We have cleared the ramp balances. So that is not anything which will impact this EUR1.4 billion besides the ordinary prepayment with the U.
S. So that is one thing. And then as I said, of this expected SEK 400,000,000 in governmental support. SEK 350,000,000 have been paid and the remaining is something which should continuously drop into our accounts during the spring. And then besides debt.
I think, as I said, as a kind of an average benchmark besides rent payment, which you need to pay, we assume this around SEK 150,000,000 made to SEK 170,000,000 per quarter in investment plans. And then I think you should take use the underlying cash burn, as we said in Q4, on 23%, around SEK 300,000,000. I think you can use that for your own scenarios. It's extremely hard for us to tell you what we believe will be the your currency in March, for example, because the visibility is so low. I mean, we've stated here the number 18% for February.
And of course, I mean, that is also something which moves a little bit every day, I can tell you. I mean, yesterday, when I looked upon the number, it looked a little bit worse. When I looked this morning. It was a little bit better. So I would probably have said 18% plus when I saw it this morning, but it changed so fast.
So I think this is extremely hard to, obviously, communicate the cash forecast right now during these circumstances. Expenses. But that's the reason why we try to give you the coordinates instead so you can make your scenarios here.
Okay. Thank you. In terms of development, could you delay some more projects to self cash if necessary or have you done the maximum on that side?
Well, I think we have been working on all of the near term, you could say, openings, for instance, Grand Central in Helsinki. Central in Helsinki was to open and we actually took over 1st part of January. And instead of opening there, we opened in April. So we are moving some of these projects, which has already been decided as and also is, let's say, in calculated in our numbers. We don't foresee a lot of further delays than what you have seen in the current material.
And but of course, we are still working with some of the projects coming up also during next year. So no, I think what you have in this picture is pretty close to what will be the fact.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Karl Johan Bonhoeffer from DNB Markets. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. First of all, Jan, I need to applaud you for mentioning Halstad as I'm calling in from Halstad this morning. And even if you are far from the summer July market, the snow is very heavy out there for the moment. I hope for the same recovery as you do in that respect. So Then I appreciate you have given us all the coordinates for calculating the cash burn and so on.
But yes, coming back to so I fully understand 23% occupancy, EUR 300,000,000 cash burn as you had in Q4. When I now go into Q1, is that allowing for the rent the rent concession. You're saying that more than half of the rent concession that you're expecting should hit the first half of this year. Is that that is an all in number, so to say, that in that respect?
Yes.
That's correct.
Excellent. And when you look at further rental negotiation with landlords, this is basically what you have sought and what you have got in this. So there is nothing more on the table that we should expect coming out of this more than, say, normal kind of expiry negotiations from now on.
Yes. No, we are having some negotiations going on with some of the of course, we started with a lot of the bigger one and let's say the bigger issues we had with high fixed leases or high guarantees. And those we have kind of settled and gone through. We do still have some ongoing negotiations with, let's say, smaller hotels here and there, where we still try to work on smaller solutions. So it might be that we find another €10,000,000 €20,000,000 or even €25,000,000 but we will not find another €100,000,000 in this.
But of course, we have a common interest in, let's say, looking this through together with the landlords because they also benefit from having, let's say, maybe a secured contract a few years further ahead. So we are looking at this from both sides to make it, let's say, a commercially win win for both parties. So yes, definitely, we might find another €10,000,000 or €20,000,000 during this year, but I think the main part is kind of done. Excellent.
And when I look at the company now standing with, say, the liquidity reserve of 1.4, and we are going in, say, into March and onwards. What kind of working capital headwind is there still to come, so to say? It feels like you have, say, settled most of the things of history. And then you've been able to postpone the things that are outstanding. So I guess working capital now for the next capital of at least months going forward with prepayments going into summer and so on that might come, should be something that is positive.
Or am I missing something there?
No, I think what I mean, it is very I mean, as soon as we see improvement in booking patterns so on. Of course, we will have a positive working capital development. But not to promise you too much, Stelkal Johan. It is so that we are still working with the quarterly phase in some agreement the quarterly payments on the rents, which is, of course, that as soon as you're approaching a quarter end or beginning of the quarter, you will have a dip there due to that. We have tried to smooth out some of it, but there is still a reasonable content of prepaid on quarters there.
So and whether those balance out or not, it's impossible for us to ask here. I mean, we know the rents going forward, but we don't know the occupants.
And that's the problem in XL.
But then you come back to this is really a positive delta on that given your expectations of positive, say, occupancy development in it.
Yes, but it of course, it has been more helpful with more positive news on from the pandemic that we see right now. We don't have, of course, appreciated a higher vaccination fee. We would have appreciated less restrictions and that restrictions and so on. So we need to be humble on this.
But we definitely also see that there's kind of it's I think we are pretty close to what I normally would call the tipping point because we see it in the different markets. We see that. For instance, when I look at Denmark, where I come from, I really see that how population and even now the let's say the opinion to the government is really demanding that we should reopen the society more than we are doing right now. So there's a lot of expectations as of beginning of March and ahead we should reopen more than we see today. And this linked also to the speed of the vaccination.
Then we trust that our estimates on what we have today is pretty solid.
Excellent. And looking at, say, getting summer up to where it should be, what kind of events. Should we be looking for is it getting theme parks open in the major city like Tivoli in Copenhagen, or Lund in Stockholm and Liseberg in Gothenburg and similar things that could say create that extra demand that you're hoping for.
Yes. We should not think about concerts and things like that. I think we should Think About Stuff, which means that there is a reason to go for a family. We don't expect any big events, but maybe if you can NAP Lisebergen, Grana Lund a little bit and Sabona and so on. So there is at least a couple of reasons to go to a big city that is actually what we believe might be the possibility this year when we compare with last year.
You can say that it will be difficult for the government to close all outdoor activities. So outdoor activities will pretty much be open all around, we expect. And it might be that you need to wear a face mask still or you need to show whatever that you have been vaccinated or something here and there, but we don't see that those will be closed. But like Anna said, we I think we need to come to the autumn before we see, let's say, Concerts in Daul and things like that. I think we need to come to August and ahead before we see that opening up.
Yes. And I'll need to also try, I should say, the your thinking about the liquidity runway and so on and what kind of liquidity strengthening options you are looking for. Because I remember, Jan, when we go back a little more in here in time and before you announced the new issue at that time. You said that it was more a tactical decision for you if you were looking for equity or debt to bridge the liquidity gap that you saw at the time. Now I guess you are at least indicating that you see this being more of a temporary gap that might be needing Eschar Resources.
Is it more logical to then think about debt solutions than equity solution at this time if you compare it to a year ago?
I would like to have this reasoning with your call, Yuan. But I think we are a little bit we should I would stay away from that right now, I think, because we would need to conclude this internal thinking and discussion and elaboration a little bit more here before we come back. I think it will be wrong to create an expectations now on the solution.
That's fine. Thank you very much and good luck out there.
Yes. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Our last Question is from Christian Daimo of Sector Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I'm sorry guys, but we are shareholders and I need to come back to some sort of clarity on the financing. I do understand the delicacy. I do understand the predicament, But you must also understand that for us managing external money, this is our predicament. We need to know that we need to know whether you are contemplating some sort of rights issue, which will reach all shareholders equally or whether you are contemplating a directed issue to this existing large shareholders.
And if you do the latter, I'm not asking you for very specifics, but I need to know what would be the expected dilution. And the reason I say this is I cannot sit here being totally asleep at the wheel, closing my eyes and just hoping that you will bear my investors in mind when it's so tempting to just get the money from the larger shareholders. So to summarize, some sort of rights issued to all existing shareholders or a directed issued to the major shareholders?
And hi, Jan here. Yes, I perfectly understand your question. And of course, it feels a little Badger City and not be able to be more concrete in answering here. We I fully understand your concern. I fully understand your question here.
The only thing I can say right now, we will try to work out something which is balanced. That is something which I can try to or can promise you, we will try to work out something which is balanced. That's how far we can go right now. But I cannot do we will try to do something which is good for as many as possible.
Balance is a good word. I like that. Thank you.
Yes. Thank you.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. So I'll hand back over to our speakers for any closing remarks.
I just want to it's a difficult time for all of us, and then I thank you for all your very good questions, and thank you for dialing into this. Feel Assured that we are doing all we can to really work us through this difficult time. But also right now, we do see, as mentioned, some positive news or light in the tunnel. So we really want to focus on that one as well. But thank you for dialing in, and we wish you all a very good day.