Thank you, Naz. Good morning, everyone, and a very warm welcome to the presentation of Swedbank's 2020 year end results. In the room with me today is Jens Henriksson, our CEO Anders Karlsson, our CFO and also Rolf Marquardt, our CRO. We will, as usual, begin with the presentation and opening comments followed by a Q and A. For this time, we would like to limit the number of questions 2 per person at a time in order to allow everyone to a chance to ask the questions.
So without further ado, I'll Hand over to Jens.
Well, thank you, Annie, and good morning, everyone, and welcome. I am proud to today present A stable quarter in difficult times. It was a quarter once again dominated by COVID-nineteen. Overall, income was stable. The housing market and private mortgage demand is strong.
Companies, though, Adding liquidity in the capital markets and pushing credit spreads down. The economic uncertainty remains and is still Bleak in society and the economy due to the pandemic. Life is still held back by But thanks to the vaccine, there is a light at the end of the tunnel. A few days ago, IMF forecasted Highest world growth rate since 1973. Continued government support through fiscal and monetary Our economies at Swedbank also sees a recovery.
This year, GDP in Sweden is expected to rise 3%. And we are closely monitoring developments or and are prepared for the possibility Well, you all know that 2020 was a year filled with challenges, a tough year. During spring, the Swedish FSA gave us a hefty fine, and we received a preset from the Stoltenian FSA. A few days later, Clifford Chance presented their report on our historical shortcomings combating financial crime. And then the pandemic And the bank once again adapted in a way at least I had not thought was possible.
Within a few days We were working from home, taking care of our customers through customer centers, while taking precautions to Make our local branches safe. Our most important accomplishment in 2020 are tied to the challenges we faced. Let me start by AML. During 2020, we addressed our history and strengthen our efforts to prevent financial crime, while being transparent about it. At the end of 2020, We closed our 244 point action plan to remedy the historical deficiencies, which we are Last quarter, we responded to the Estonian FSA precept.
And last week, they informed us framework. And today, we are presenting a new corporate structure for a clearer governance of our Baltic subsidiary banks in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. And we have hired people. During 2021, We will be nearly 1500 people working full time against financial crime or almost every 10th On top of that, all employees in the bank have the personal responsibility to combat financial crime in their daily work. Let's then move to sustainability.
In 2020, we saw once again green financing growth, and Swedbank was In the top three of the ranges of green, social and sustainability bonds in the Nordic region, we've also developed a framework for Green Equity. And during the Q4, we, as the only Nordic bank, qualified for Dow Jones Sustainability Index. It's a mark of quality. We want to be a part from oil and coal to renewables. Our fund company, Wubolo, is showing the way with their decision that All these assets under management will align with the Paris Agreement by 2025 and be carbon neutral by 2,040.
In this context and in line with our revised strategic direction, The bank has taken the strategic decision to stop financing unconventional fossil fuel production such as shale oil and gas, Arctic oil and gas or oil sand. Nor will we finance exploration Customer needs in COVID-nineteen times. During the pandemic, Swedbank has continued to adapt. We are A digital bank with physical presence. Our digital tools, including a calculator for government support, have been visited millions times.
Events held through our digital channels have had 100 of 1000 of views, and we now have virtual solution Customers can receive advice face to face and we have a way for young people to get the bank idea without having To visit the branch, to schedule COVID test, for example, and we will continue to invest in stability and resilience, so Our customers need to be able to trust Swedbank. I am proud that Swedbank now It's not a revolution, but an evolution based on our 200 year history. It It's fully anchored with all our 16,000 employees through our culture work. Our purpose, Swedbank's purpose is to empower the many people and businesses to create a better future. And our vision of The better future is a financially sound and sustainable society.
And based on our long lasting and And this will guide how we develop our customer offering. Our values, open, simple, caring, are We have also defined the foundation we base our business upon. First, Swedbank should be an attractive workplace with a culture based on inclusion and accountability. We will continue services platform. We maintain our target of return on equity of 15%, and we should have a leading costincome ratio.
We continue to invest in compliance and our capability to effectively and efficiently fight financial With this strategic direction, all employees in Swedbank will work to create long term value for our Now let me say a few words on our results for the Q4. Swedbank's 4th quarter A stable result in difficult times. Total income increased primarily due to strong development of net commissions and net gains and losses. Net interest income was slightly down due to higher deposit guarantee fees for the full year. Expenses are higher due to seasonal effects and the hiring of more people in the anti financial Credit impairments for the quarter ends at €500,000,000 and is mainly explained by provisions related to our exit portfolio in the oil and offshore sector.
And due to continued uncertainty on the economic outlook, we have a management overlay on SEK 6 at 11.8%. The capital situation improved, and we ended the quarter with a buffer around 500 These points above the requirement. So where does this lead us on 2020? Well, first, 2020 It was a year like Neuwab for the global economy, for our customers in the daily life and for the Thanks, business. Over the course of the year, earnings were stable even under these extreme circumstances, but profit in accordance with IRS 9.
Expenses have increased due to AML related work and Our liquidity and capital position remains strong, and the Board As suggested a dividend of 25 percent for 2019, corresponding to DKK 4.35 per That will be discussed at an extra general meeting February 15. For 2020, the Board of Directors is Proposing a third dividend of NOK 2.90 per share, and this will be discussed at the annual meeting. And with that, I give the floor to our CFO, Anders Karlsson, who will in more detail and present the result. Now it's your turn, Anders.
Thank you, Jens. Let Let's turn to the quarterly results in more detail. I will first talk you through the volume development And the P and L in more detail and then ask Rolf to speak about asset quality and credit provisioning before I I'll sum up with a few remarks on capital and some forward looking comments, then handing back to Jens Compared to last quarter, we had underlying lending growth. But due to a significantly The total loan portfolio decreased by SEK 6,000,000,000 Mortgage lending in both Sweden and the Baltics continue to grow steadily in local currencies, but corporate lending committed facilities, although the propensity to utilize these facilities has continued to gradually decrease since the Q2. Instead, corporates have been turning to the debt and equity capital markets for funding and capital at at attractive levels.
Customer deposit inflows continued, this quarter increasing by €55,000,000,000 mostly from Now let us look at the quarter over quarter results, starting off with net interest income. Where the underlying NII is stable, but FX and a higher deposit guarantee fee for The full year impacted negatively. The trend that we saw over the 3rd quarter continued into Q4, where deposit volumes increased and average lending volumes decreased slightly. Market rates continue to fall, impacting lending margins positively, but deposit margins negatively, reminding you that assets reprice gradually whilst deposits are impacted immediately. Over to net commission income, which was strong.
Card commissions were lower as a result of the 2nd wave of the pandemic impacting card activity, but the asset management This continues to perform and are well reflecting the development in the equity markets. Income was also positively impacted by annual performance and market making fees in Sweden, and we had a positive development within ECM. Turning to net gains and losses. There were good levels of client activity in LC and I, particularly in FX trading, and the CVA, DVA and bond valuations ended spot on our EUR 19,700,000,000 guidance. Total cost ended on EUR 20 €4,560,000,000 of which €4,000,000,000 were related to the fine from the Swedish FSA and €8 €50,000,000 to costs related to the AML investigations.
And the usual seasonal increase of costs led to higher expenses. I will now hand over to Rolf to talk about asset quality and the credit provisions that were made in the quarter. Please, Rolf. Thank
And a very large part of our portfolio has not been impacted by the pandemic. When we look at the internal late Payment statistics, development of customer credit quality and different early warning signals. We see that credit quality The exception to this is the oil sector and also to some extent, some other sectors that have been more directly impacted by Oil related losses accounts for SEK 2,900,000,000 within our large corporate institutions division. The remainder of the impairments are related to other sectors and mainly explained by Stage 2 migrations in COVID impacted sectors, Our expected credit losses have increased, but with a limited number of actual defaults and bankruptcies The total credit impairment for the 4th quarter was The IFRS 9 calculation of expected credit losses based on updated macro scenarios pointed to to the sectors significantly impacted by COVID-nineteen. The reason for this is twofold.
1st, the deterioration in economic activity in some sectors have not yet Resulted in an increase in actual defaults, which may have been postponed by the governmental support. The second reason is the significant continued uncertainty related to COVID-nineteen. The individual assessment A final note on our oil related exposure within shipping and offshore. Our oil related Exposures remain limited and are to a significant degree in runoff. The exposure was SEK 12,600,000,000 as So with that, I hand over to you again, Anders.
Thank you, Rolf. Let me now The accrued dividend from profits generated in 2019 2020 is still In this context, We are confident that we will remain well capitalized and are reiterating our capital target range of 100 to 300 basis points. Let me now move to some forward Looking comments before I hand back to Jens to conclude. Considering the current situation, at high levels and foresee continued deposit inflow, while market rates will likely remain low or negative, which will put pressure on deposit margins, also considering fees paid to central banks than 2020. Underlying expenses of EUR 19,700,000,000 in 2020 We'll reach EUR 20,500,000,000 in 2021, mainly due to the higher number of FTEs as well as to strengthen governance in the Baltics.
We intend to maintain underlying expenses at €500,000,000 for 2021 2022. Regarding AML investigation Swedbank, with its large customer base, broad and deep offering and strong financial position is well equipped to capture the opportunities when the situation normalizes and the economies are recovering. Now over to you, Jens.
Well, thank you, Anders, and thank you, Horst. 20 2020 has been a challenging year, but our core business is strong and stable. We've made major investments and added significant resources in the fight against financial crime. As a result, we have a lower operational risk profile, but with increased cost. We expect underlying costs during 2021 to level off, and we do not expect further increases We have delivered on governance, AML, enterprise risk management, cultural assessment, customer solutions and the new strategic direction, all while in the midst of a pandemic.
Our capital position Capital generation capacity are strong, and we are proud to distribute dividends to our shareholders. During this spring, we will pay out And on monitoring the economic development and communication from supervisory authorities. Our revised strategic review gives Swedbank a clear direction, a direction Thank you. With that, I give the floor
Our first question comes from the line of Magnus Andersson from ABG. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. My first question would be on capital and dividends. Just to try to make this Clear. Should I read your comments in the report around dividends that you would like to suggest Even more dividends that if we assume that the restriction is lifted on the 30th September, we could very well get the 2nd installment in the second half of the year. And if that is the case, would you consider share buybacks as a tool to repatriate capital
Thank you, Magnus. What we have expressed is our ambition To keep to the dividend policy of 50%. So yes, if we will be able to distribute dividend after September 30. We will do that in accordance with the dividend policy. I think it is too early to talk about share buybacks.
We Have that in our toolbox, and we ask for that mandate on every AGM. But as I said, I think It's too early to talk about that, but we stick to the dividend policy and we take with the sort of obvious comment that we are following the authorities closely in their language.
Okay. Thank you. That's clear. And my second one is on NII. You mentioned a couple of Just there in your outlook statement, primarily mortgages and deposits and the lower funding costs as well as fees.
I was just wondering if you could say something about the corporate lending trajectory, which has been Quite weak also relative to the market now for a while. And related to that, if I add up the factors you mentioned, is it fair to assume a flattish
If I start with a question on corporate volumes, I'm not sure that we Mine are sticking out immensely, but if compared to competitors. I mean what we have seen During the year is if you take Swedish Banking, for example, we have lost volumes on tenant owner associations, which It's a price and margin issue for us. When it comes to the larger corporates, primarily, I would say, within the real estate sector. They have had the possibility to issue in the Corporate bonds base at much lower rates, and that's why you see that committed facilities are increasing rather than lending. So I'm not sure if we stand out more than Anyone else, I think it is a similar pattern.
And the remaining part of the corporate sectors are a bit hesitant to take on new asset investment loans. To answer your second question on NII, that is the best estimate I can give you at this That it is a flattish development.
Okay. Thank you very much.
And the next question comes from the line of Andreas Hoganson from Danske Bank. Please go ahead.
Now we can hear you.
Hello? Can you hear me?
Hello. Yes. Now we can.
Sorry for that. So on the revenue guidance you just gave Anders, We hear that you talked about a flattish NII, but did you say that you expect a flattish total revenues for 2021, or did I misunderstand that?
No, that is our best estimate as we speak. But as you know, if I mean we are well positioned, especially when it comes to the commission income. But we have seen And the asset management is, as you are aware of, exogenously determined very much by the stock exchanges. So that is the best estimate as we speak.
But if I mean, sure, we don't know what equity market is going to go, but know where it is today. And of course, it is significantly higher today than the average over 2020. So you must have very significant tailwind on that And also card payments, wouldn't you say that it's hard to imagine that we're going to have, for example, a Q3 Equally bad as in 2020, so shouldn't card also be a tailwind into 2021?
As I sort of finished my speech, Andreas, we are well positioned for an economic recovery and a normalization. That is for sure. But at this point, I think it is a bit aggressive to take that into consideration. That is why I said flattish. But you are perfectly Correct that we are well positioned, especially on the commission row.
Okay. And that's it for me. Thank you.
Thank you, Andreas.
And the next question comes from the line of Andres Chigi from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hi, there. Thank you very much. Adrian Chigi from Credit Suisse. Two follow-up questions please on capital and actually one on impairments. So on capital, how do you expect credit risk migration to impact you in 2021?
And Do you have any estimates for the potential impact of the model review that's due
to impact capital again this year?
And then on impairments, would you be able to
Thank you. I think we will divide the answer between myself and Rolf. On the rating migrations, We have seen rating migrations negatively rating migrations during 2020. I can't sort of give you an estimate of a continuation. But if I put it this way, if the economies are recovering, you will see rating migrations But to the other direction.
But I'll leave the floor to Rolf.
Yes. And If you look at the credit migrations we've seen during the last quarter, they have been more or less neutral. So the migrations we saw in the Q2 in particular. And then going into 2021, we don't make any forecasts About that, but what you should also keep in mind is that we will gradually move into using new models The potential impact on IFRS nine calculations and so on, we don't make any forecasts about that. We can conclude that Uncertainty is still big when it comes to development of COVID-nineteen.
And then we I provisioned what we think is the right thing to do at this point. So the best assessment is the one you have at the table at this point.
Thank you, Rolf. Can I follow-up with a question, just a clarification? You mentioned the new models. Can you give us an estimate on
the impact of New models to the capital ratio.
No, we haven't communicated the impact and that is an ongoing exercise where the Swedish FSA will go through those models and approve them during the year. So it's a bit too early also to make a very precise estimate of that, but we haven't communicated potential impact from that. But it will increase capital requirements to a certain degree.
Thank you.
And the next question comes from the line of Johan Ekblom from UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Can I just follow-up on your cost guidance, please? So I guess I'm trying to understand where your EUR 800,000,000 increase in underlying costs It's coming from, right? So you say that there's an increased headcount component to that, but I guess that's been Gradual increase through the year. So it still looks like quite a chunky year on year rise in underlying expenses.
So if you can give some more color on what's driving that, that would be very helpful. And I guess related to that, you say expenses will peak in 2021 2022. So does this mean Some of these AML investments and not the investigation expense are expected To kind of remain for the next 2 years and then taper off? Or how should we think about the longer term cost trajectory?
Well, thank you. It's Jens here. Let me first say, when you look on the quarterly results, you will see that costs Wages have gone up a little bit more than I think was expected from the market. So there has been a buildup of the number of And that will then come into 2021. But we've also been very clear that we want to continue To invest in stability, resilience and different customer solution.
So actually, this is a year Well, I think we have the highest development budget ever. So we're not giving up on our business ambitions. On the contrary, we're taking Strong measures to strengthen that. When it comes to the year, the coming years, we have not given any guidance. We now give guidance on 2021 2022 as we promised during the year.
But of course, I hope that In order for us to sort of reach our long term goal that is to strive for an industry leading practice In sort of the fight against financial crime, I believe we can do a lot more when it comes to digitization.
I guess, another way just on the same topic. I mean, the AML investments that You outlined, I think it was a year ago, we're expected to come down gradually. What's replacing that? What are the new areas of investment as those AML investment expenses
Well, I think it's we need to do more investments in a lot of areas. And AML investment, we have not sort of said that this much will be AML investments and this will be other investments. But of course, In sort of in the steady state looking forward, we think that you could see sort of lower cost on this area, but we need We work with sort of investments in order to get there.
I think what I have said also Johan, on the share is that, I mean, We have been building FTEs gradually over 2020. They are now giving us the full year run rate. So that is sort of the first one. Secondly, even though we have Been putting a lot of effort in the so called 244 point program. There is a continuation.
We need to use flesh and blood going forward. We have not been able yet to automate or use machine learning or artificial intelligence or whatever to sort of increase efficiency. So that is we are still working with AML and financial crime related issues and IT related issues. And then we also will have a certain degree of cost increase Due to the change of the Baltic Banking governance where we are clarifying the legal structure and with that comes as far as we understand And an increase in VAT expenses. So there is a combination of different things.
But I think you need to have in the back of your head that we have had 1,000 more new people That will have a full year run rate effect in this year.
All right. Thank you.
And the next question comes from the line of Sophie Fiddesons from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Yuri Staphy from JPMorgan. I was wondering if you could just talk a little bit about the 2019 20 20 dividend. Is it correct to assume that you never fully reversed the 2019 dividend? What It's in excess of the 4.35% that you now are proposing and similarly the 50% that You reserved in the 4th quarters of 2020.
That hasn't been reversed. And then my second question would be On the Swedish banking tax, do you still expect it to come? And do you have any update on what the potential impact is? And how should we think Any potential offsets for the banking tax that was scheduled to come? And are there any other regulatory impacts that we should expect in the coming years?
Thank you.
Well, as you know, we have a dividend policy that we want to give out 50% of our profit, and we have accrued sort of that for 20 2019 2020. What we now do is that we first have an extra general meeting where we propose a dividend of 25% of the profit for 20 2019. And then we have the annual general meeting where we propose to the annual sort of the annual general dividend of 25 percent of the profit for 2020. That altogether sums up to NOK 7.20 Hi, Oliver. When it comes to the banking tax, we've sort of kept a low profile from Swedbank and mostly it's been the Swedish Bankers We think it's a tax that hits the big banks More than the small banks and we think sort of that people putting deposits in a bank that, that would sort of mean higher tax for us, we think that's Unfair and not good in the present economy.
But the politics of this, I think you have to have somebody Than us because that's decided by Parliament.
Yes. In terms of timing for that, And the consultation period for the bank tax ended in November 2020. And that's very much in the government's hands now. But potentially what I hear is So they may propose the law in June this year, and then there'll be a parliament decision thereafter over the summer.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
And the next question comes from the line of Jens Helene from Carnegie. Please go ahead.
Perfect. Thank you. So two questions from me. One is just a follow-up on provisions. And I just have to understand your thinking here.
If we assume that the economy develops as So what you put into the models and given the significant provisions you already taken, is there Particular reasons why provisions should be elevated during 2021?
We haven't made a forecast that they will be elevated. What we have done is to not release those reserves for the reasons I mentioned. And that's very much tied to the uncertainty related to the future development of COVID-nineteen and Obviously, also some of the sectors that have been severely impacted by COVID-nineteen, but where we haven't seen any defaults yet, but deterioration in credit quality. So that's the foundation for it. So that's where we are.
Okay, perfect. I was Also drawing on comments on one of your friendly competitors that they think is going to be elevated, whereas I think I take from your comment that the uncertainty is captured Into your portfolio
assessments. Yes.
Can I also ask a question on capital? So you of course, you've reiterated your dividend policy, you still hold the 50% accrued dividend deducted from capital 2019 2020. Does that mean you believe you don't hold any significant amounts of excess capital taking into account Long term capital requirement.
Yes. That's exactly what I tried to communicate Although we are running at the 500 roughly basis points buffer, we know that there will be A number of changes during the year. One is, as you saw at the year end, when the banking And then as Rolf alluded to, we have the IRB overhaul where we need to rebuild our credit models, which is most likely increasing requirements. And that is why I iterated that the capital target range of 100 to 300 basis points will continue to be relevant.
Perfect. Thank you.
And the next question comes from the line of Namita Samtani from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I've got two questions, please. The first one, on corporate loan activity. I understand it's weak, What about the other revenue streams from corporates? Is that still strong as the competitor we all alluded to last week?
And secondly, given the continuous inflow of retail deposits, which you expect to continue, do you foresee Customers switching their deposits into other products such as mutual funds, which are perhaps more profitable for you? Or are they sticking to the deposits?
Thank you. If we take the first one, what we have seen, And I tried to allude to that is that our advisory income has increased in the quarter. We have been participating in debt capital market transactions for the corporates, but also equity capital markets transactions. So in that sense, we see positive momentum on other income lines than on NII from corporate lending or the muted corporate lending. When it comes to deposits, I think that what you see to buffer up for unexpected happenings in their lives.
So they have been sort of Hesitant to put them into mutual funds. And I think it is a delicate balance from an advisory point of view, as Bank to even though we would earn more on mutual funds, it is a balancing act of delicacy. So I foresee continued inflow on deposit accounts going forward.
Thanks very much.
The next question comes from the line of Jacob Kruse from Autonomous. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. So just two quick questions. Firstly, the AML investigation expenses in 2021, Can I read anything into that with respect to the time line for the regulatory investigations that you see in sorry, in 2021 2022, that you're still Looking forward to 2 years of investigations? And then secondly, just on the capital. So I guess what I take from your You're not really seeing a rightsizing of the capital base in terms of distributions this year.
It's more potentially topping up to the 50% total payout with Q4 assuming regulatory and other sort of conditions are in place. Thank
you. Well, thank you and good morning. Well, first, no, you can't read anything into that. We have an ongoing investigation. We've seen a Pickup a little bit on the activities during the Q4, but it's very hard for us to give any predictions
and forecast how this long time
this will last and Just how this long time this will last and sort of what efforts it will bring. We sort of answer the questions and are engaged with the U. S. Authorities. And we try to give the best guess and our best guess is NOK 500,000,000 for 2021 and SEK 500,000,000 for 2022.
You should not read anything else into that.
And you're right on the capital side. We reiterate our 50% Dividend policy. And as I said, it's we have in our toolbox share buybacks, If that would be relevant, but it's far too early to talk about that.
Thank you.
And the next Question comes from the line of Martin Leitgeb from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Good morning from my side. One Clarification on capital and then a broader question on the mortgage market and the impact. On capital, I was just wondering if you could call out what the expected The impact of Pillar 2 guidance would be in terms of your requirement. So by how much would your requirement increase?
And this is expected for the Q3 this year. And more broader on the mortgage market in Sweden, I was just wondering If you could comment on how you see the competitive landscape and competition evolving, just given your comment You expect a continued amount of deposit inflow and with that funding to the market. And related to that, I know that The flow share of Swedbank has gradually decreased in the last few months. Should we expect that trend to continue or stabilize from Yeah. Or would you ambition for flow share to be closer to your stock share, which is obviously higher?
Thank you.
Well, thank you. If you look on our back book share, it's, what, 23%, 24%. And if you look at the front book, It's not as strong. And there are many reasons for that. One reason is that we are a bank that's All around Sweden, but we are a little bit weaker in the large cities than in the whole of Sweden.
And During 2019, an increase of loans came from the Stockholm area. Another reason is also that We have the local savings banks where they can put their mortgages into Swedbank, and they've also seen an increase of Meaning that they do not need us the same way they did before. But of course, we can do more and we have a focus on this. If you look for 20 2020, we've grown our sort of mortgage with more than 50% that we've grown in 2019. So it is Focus area and we will do everything we can in order to be competitive in this area.
And on your Pillar Your guidance question, the best guess is 1 percentage unit. And Again, coming back to Jens' answer on the mortgage side. If you all participants And if there is one single sort of sector growing when it comes to Loan demands, you would expect the competition to be elevated in a situation like this. But as also Jens I said we have we come from a tough year, 2019, with the AML issues. We move into 2020.
The pandemic hits, we are regaining slowly, but not to the extent that our ambition Yes. But we will continue to work on it. That's for sure.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
And we have one more question from the line of Richard Strand from Nordea. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Two questions on the cost side. In terms of the FTE increase, Could you say anything about what trajectory you expect into 2021 in the coming quarters? And also on the cost guidance, what assumptions you make in terms of depreciations and the amortizations in the coming years given your quite high capitalization of Euraitis Spending.
Thank you. I think that what happened During 2020, there were 2 things when it comes to FTE increases. 1 was that we needed to Get more people in to work with the AML issues, and they will continue to do that in 2021. What we did not See, we need to be honest about that was the low attrition rate. Normally, the attrition rate is around 10% in the bank and now it went down to virtually single digit numbers close to 0.
So As far as FTEs comes looking forward, flattish is my best estimate. On the depreciation, And I take this from the top of my head. I would assume or expect EUR 100,000,000 more.
Okay. So EUR 100,000,000 per year end run rate.
Yes.
Okay. Thanks.
And we just have one final question from the line of Maria
A couple of questions. First, you previously mentioned that You are reviewing your merchant payment business. I don't know if you can provide any update on that. And on cost, just to clarify,
Well, we are still doing the review. And the second, yes, the sort of the cost for the investigation is not in the underlying cost of SEK 20.5 On top of it, we've sort of estimated SEK 500,000,000 for 2021 and SEK 500,000,000 for 2020 But that's only our best estimate.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Well, thank you everybody for asking questions. Always looking forward to keep on talking with you. And thank you for following us.
Thanks very much. Speak to you soon. Take care.