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Earnings Call: Q1 2018

Apr 23, 2018

Operator

Welcome to the Tele2 Q1 Interim Report 2018 conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Erik Strandin Pers, head of investor relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Erik Strandin Pers
Head of Investor Relations, Tele2

Thank you, and welcome everyone to the call. As usual, you will find the slide presentation on our website. I have here with me, Allison Kirkby, our CEO, and Lars Nordmark, our CFO. I start by handing the word over to Allison. Please go ahead.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Hi. Good morning, everyone, from a very sunny Stockholm, welcome to our first quarter results in what will be a year of major transformation for Tele2. Looking at the numbers, liberating a more connected life remains our ultimate priority, and we saw this drive another quarter of solid growth. Net sales amounted to SEK 6.2 billion, up 5% on a like-for-like basis, driven by strong data monetization, particularly in our international markets and higher equipment sales. Adjusting for the two non-cash one-offs, we saw mobile end-user service revenue also grow 5%, with excellent growth in the Baltics and also in our investment markets. On the same basis, EBITDA was up by 9%, mainly driven by the top-line growth, which flowed through to a 26% increase in rolling 12 months operating cash flow.

As you know by now, having agreed to combine our Dutch operations with T-Mobile in Q4 last year, Netherlands is now reported as discontinued and excluded from our reported numbers. Very much you can see the detail in the report itself. Before getting into each market, I believe it's worth highlighting some key successes during the quarter. Starting with our Baltic Sea challenger markets, Sweden, as expected, showed positive underlying trends, despite the Roam Like at Home headwinds and vibrant competition. In the Baltics, we continue to deliver strong revenue and EBITDA growth, with both up by 8% in local currency. As a result, our Baltic Sea challenger businesses collectively achieved a 9% increase in OCF on a rolling 12-month basis, amounting to SEK 4.5 billion, as our mobility-first strategy continues to serve us well with outstanding cash conversion.

In our investment markets, we have excellent momentum thanks to 4G rollout, improving network quality perception, fearless commercial offerings, and our customers' insatiable thirst for data. Kazakhstan delivered another excellent quarter with mobile end-user service revenue up 21% in local currency on the back of growing ARPU and a growing customer base. As a consequence, a second repayment of the shareholder loan was received during the quarter. Croatia, our other investment market, also delivered an excellent mobile end-user service revenue growth of 11%. Our winning cost structure also improved in the quarter from a number of cost and synergy initiatives.

In Sweden, the TDC synergies reached their target run rate level well ahead of plan. In the quarter, we announced outsourcing of IT services to Cognizant and Hexaware, allowing us to access the right competence and skills as a support to our digital transformation strategy and further IT operating cost reduction in the future. Top-line momentum and increasing scale in our Kazakh business filtered through to a 30% EBITDA margin, allowing us to reach our midterm ambition one year early. The first quarter of this year also marks the beginning of a year of major transformation for our group. Preparations for the two transactions in Sweden and Netherlands are well underway. The regulatory approval processes are on track. We are in the pre-notification phase with constructive dialogues with the European Commission and looking forward to filing the formal merger notifications during this, the second quarter.

Looking forward to the merger with Com Hem, we will be combining two highly cash-generative businesses with clear synergies to create a leading connectivity provider in the Baltic Sea region. As a reflection of this, we are today announcing an updated and more specific financial leverage target and shareholder remuneration framework for the combined company, which I will get into in a bit more detail later. Let's get into the markets in more detail. First, our Baltic Sea challengers. The Swedish market saw increased competition in the consumer price fighter segment, in particular, with new price plans launched by several brands in the quarter. The main brand segment was, however, less eventful. As we said in our release this morning, affecting the Swedish numbers is a non-cash adjustment of SEK 46 million, which has been made to both mobile end-user service revenue and impacting EBITDA.

Underlying, however, after adjusting for Roam Like at Home and the one-off, mobile end-user service revenue was up 1% and EBITDA contribution was up 3%, driven by solid progress in the consumer segment and excellent network economics with mobile network costs flat year-on-year, despite data growth of nearly 50%. At 26%, the EBITDA margin in the quarter was slightly lower than Q1 last year due to higher equipment sales, particularly in the B2B segment. However, our rolling 12-month cash conversion continues to be outstanding and sustained above the 80% level. Despite strong competition, consumer mobile end-user service revenue showed an underlying solid trend up 3%, driven by continued strong growth in Comviq postpaid as we continue to successfully migrate away from prepaid.

Intense competition continued in the price fighter segment, but both Tele2 and Comviq ASPUs increased as we continue to encourage our customers to take larger data buckets and liberate their ability to connect wherever and whenever they want to. These customer-focused strategic choices and a number of new commercial propositions continue to improve our customer satisfaction, with Comviq Net Promoter Score reaching an all-time record high. As expected, the B2B market continued to also be price competitive, affecting both fixed and mobile service revenues. However, net sales were only slightly down this quarter, as high equipment sales almost fully offset the declines in service revenue. After adjusting for the non-cash receivable write-down, service revenues were down 5%, an improvement versus prior quarters, due to the sales momentum we have seen since combining the sales teams and the product offering of both Tele2 and TDC.

We also had yet another quarter of successfully winning new contracts, including ICA, SCB, the Swedish Tax Agency, and Siemens, as well as extended contracts with Visma, SJ, and PostNord. Looking forward, we now expect the improved B2B trends to continue despite this pricing pressure. However, the solid performance in customer retention and acquisition in recent months and the annualization of Roam Like at Home will offset this pressure during the second half of the year, and we're on track to return to positive growth rates in the second half. Moving to the Baltics, commercialization and monetization of our 4G investments continue to drive excellent top and bottom-line development. Mobile end-user service revenue growth was up 8% in local currency, driven by quite excellent growth in Lithuania and Latvia by 11% and 14% respectively.

This was partly offset by a decline in Estonia, where we did suffer from aggressive competition and loss of revenue from a third-party service provider. However, in both Lithuania and Latvia, we saw stable EBITDA margins of 33% and 35% respectively, filtering through to a rolling 12-month operating cash flow up 14%. In the quarter, we saw again a strong ASPU development of 7% as the transition from prepaid to postpaid subscriptions continue and customers trade up to larger data buckets. As in previous quarters, smartphone penetration continues to increase, which supports uptake of larger data bundles. Momentum was also boosted by great progress in the B2B segment across the region. Our Baltic team are always fearlessly creative when it comes to advertising, and we saw some great new campaigns, including the Flying House campaign, which is taking Tele2 into the home with high-speed mobile broadband.

As for customer satisfaction, it continues to grow, and we saw NPS reach record levels in Lithuania. Now moving east to our investment markets. In Kazakhstan, mobile end-user service revenue was up 21% in local currency, driven by strong customer growth and increasingly large data buckets. EBITDA almost doubled in local currency, and we've now reached our 30% margin ambition one year ahead of plan, thanks to the benefits from higher ASPUs, increased scale, and integration synergies. As a result of this excellent momentum, Tele2 Kazakhstan cash generation continues to improve. A second repayment to Tele2 Group of KZT 5 billion, or approximately SEK 125 million, was made in the quarter against the shareholder loan. Accumulated repayments up until March are approximately SEK 200 million, and the outstanding balance is now SEK 2.9 billion.

Looking at the Kazakh results in just a bit more detail, our customer base grew by 6% year-on-year, and ASPU was up by 13%, driven by our 4G advantage, improved network quality perception, our dual brand strategy with new price plans on both brands, and a speed differentiated unlimited mobile broadband price plan on our premium brand, Altel. As more and more Kazakh citizens discover the benefits of the connected life through our market-leading 4G coverage and our great value-for-money propositions, we are thrilled to see Net Promoter Scores improving and paving the way for further growth. Now, let me hand over to Lars, who can take you through some of the financials in a bit more detail.

Lars Nordmark
CFO, Tele2

Thank you, Allison. I'll start by making a few comments on the P&L this quarter. We had a 5% growth in net sales, driven, of course, by mobile end-user service revenue, but also by strong equipment sales, more than offsetting the decline in fixed revenue. We do not have any net impact from FX on group net sales, since a stronger EUR and HRK offset the weaker KZT. At the EBITDA level, the largest driver was a higher EBITDA in Kazakhstan, with Croatia and Baltics also contributing significantly. This was driven mainly by rising mobile end-user service revenue in these markets and more than offset the slightly declining contribution from fixed services, the Roam Like at Home effect, and the write-down in Sweden. Moving further down the P&L, we have some items affecting comparability below EBITDA.

These are mainly related to the Com Hem merger this quarter, but still lower than in Q1 of last year as the challenger program and a large part of the TDC integration is behind us. On the line other financial items, we report the changes to the valuation of the earnout obligation for Kazakhstan every quarter. In Q1, the value has increased again to around SEK 500 million due to the good performance of our Kazakh business. This resulted in a SEK 72 million non-cash cost in our P&L as the value of our liability increased. Moving on to the next slide, you can see the changes in the cash flow as compared to the same quarter last year. The cash flow statement is on a total operations basis. Here, let me just make a few short comments.

The reason for the change in financial items paid was mainly related to an FX effect last year. Changes in working capital are often negative in the first quarter. Among other things, we pay spectra fees in Croatia in Q1. When it comes to CapEx, the main difference versus the balance sheet CapEx is, of course, that the cash flow statement is on a total operations basis, so the Dutch CapEx is included here. At the bottom of the chart, we split the cash flow in the continuing business part and the discontinued part. As you can see, the overall cash flow for our continuing operations is reasonably stable compared to last year. Moving on to slide 16, which is a familiar picture by now. It shows our operating cash flow, defined as EBITDA less CapEx, on a rolling 12-month basis.

Our Baltic Sea challenger businesses and our smaller business units continue to generate a solid cash flow of well over SEK 4 billion. The remaining investor markets, Kazakhstan and Croatia, are now meaningfully producing operating cash flow with a contribution of over SEK 350 million over the past 12 months. Together, we are now at an operating cash flow contribution in continuing operation of SEK 4.6 billion, while the Netherlands continues to be cash flow negative, albeit less so than 12 months ago. Moving on to the balance sheet on slide 17. Our balance sheet is solid, with an economic net debt to EBITDA of 1.5. The proposed dividend of SEK 4 per share is expected to be paid in May, amounting to a total of SEK 2 billion.

Looking at the right-hand side of the page, over the past 12 months, we have generated cash flow of SEK 2.4 billion, in addition to a cash contribution from M&A, which is mainly related to the sale of Tele2 Austria. Against this, we paid dividends of SEK 2.6 billion in May 2017, still leaving us with a stronger balance sheet than 12 months ago. Let's turn to the next page, where we touch on our financial guidance. We reiterate our guidance for the full year: mid-single-digit mobile and user service revenue growth, an EBITDA of SEK 6.5 billion to SEK 6.8 billion, and a CapEx envelope of SEK 2.1 billion to SEK 2.4 billion. On the last item, our CapEx was low in the first quarter, but we do expect it to pick up in the coming quarters.

With that, I'd like to hand back to Allison for an update on the merger as well as conclusions.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Yeah. Thanks, Lars. Before we round off, let me just talk briefly about the upcoming merger with Com Hem and the new financial framework that we issued this morning. First of all, the merger process is going according to plan. We are preparing the filings of both the European and U.S. prospectuses, as well as being in active dialogue with the European Commission during this pre-notification phase ahead of regulatory filing, which will be in this quarter, the second quarter. The integration planning process is also going according to plan with great collaboration in the various work streams, and we're therefore confident that we'll hit the ground running on day one of the enlarged Tele2, which is still expected to be during the second half of this year. Moving on to the updated shareholder remuneration framework. If you recall, in January, we announced a preliminary framework.

Since then, we have done further analysis and we have engaged with both companies' shareholders. As a result, this morning, we announced a decision by the Tele2 board of directors in agreement with the Com Hem board of directors to update the financial leverage target and shareholder remuneration framework for the combined company, as summarized here on page 20. First of all, our target leverage will be raised to 2.5 to 3 times, reflecting the robustness of the cash generation of the combined company. We will also seek to maintain investment-grade credit metrics at this level. These targets will be the guiding principle for distribution of capital to shareholders through multiple components. First, we will distribute an ordinary dividend of at least 80% of equity free cash flow.

Secondly, we will distribute extraordinary dividends and/or share repurchases based on any remaining available equity free cash flow, proceeds from asset sales, and releveraging of the growth in underlying EBITDA, which we expect as a result of the combination of these two assets, particularly as they realize their synergy plans. With this policy, we now expect that the combined company will distribute in excess of 100% of equity free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases, and that the prospects for returns to shareholders for every invested kroner of the combined company under this policy are stronger than what could be expected for holders of either Tele2 or Com Hem on a standalone basis. To conclude, let me end with our forward-looking priorities to ensure we can continue to deliver sustainable and growing shareholder value alongside the transformation agenda.

First and foremost, it all starts with our purpose to fearlessly liberate people to live a more connected life, enabled by the four key strategic pillars that you see at the bottom of this slide. By continuing to leverage these strategic pillars, we will return Sweden to growth despite headwinds in B2B and Roam Like at Home in the second half of this year. We will continue to fuel industry-leading momentum in the Baltics and Kazakhstan, and we will prepare to close both mergers in Netherlands and in Sweden, also in the second half. As a result, we will continue to deliver sustainable and growing shareholder value while not losing focus on driving excellence in financial discipline and operational execution in order that our top-line momentum continues to flow down to bottom-line momentum and improved cash generation.

These priorities, the transformation agenda ahead, and the new financial framework excite me about the potential of Tele2 for both customers and shareholders alike in the coming months and years. Just to say, I am very proud that despite the transformation agenda, which is at full speed, the whole Tele2 team continue to deliver quarter after quarter of solid progress, and I want to say a huge thank you to all of them. But now we are ready to take your questions.

Erik Strandin Pers
Head of Investor Relations, Tele2

Operator, can we have the first question, please?

Operator

Certainly. We've got the question from Terence Tsui from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Terence Tsui
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you. Good morning. I've got a couple of questions, please. Firstly, just looking at the leverage target at the enlarged Tele2 and Com Hem in the new financial framework. If I just look at the two standalone companies' EBITDA, is it as simple as adding Com Hem's EBITDA to Tele2's EBITDA, or I think there are some accounting differences in accounting policy, maybe around capitalized sales commissions. If you could share any details on that would be quite interesting. Secondly, Sweden. You mentioned Roam Like at Home a few times. What are your expectations for usage this summer? Also on Sweden, there's been a lot of focus at the low-end competition. I just wondered at the high end whether you've seen any responses from the market following your Unlimited Together proposition. Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thank you, Terence. I'll pass over to Lars for the accounting piece of your question. In terms of the leverage target, obviously, it's not as simple as just adding our key EBITDAs together because we'll also be adding synergies on top. Don't forget the synergies when you do that addition. Lars, any comment on the accounting?

Lars Nordmark
CFO, Tele2

On the accounting. We do treat the capitalization slightly differently. It's about a SEK 200 million impact on the Com Hem EBITDA if they would not capitalize those.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

On your other questions, Roam Like at Home. Certainly in the first quarter, it was very much in line with our expectations. We said the hit this year would be SEK 100 million-SEK 150 million for the whole year. It was about a SEK 80 million impact in the quarter, 51 of that in Sweden. I expect usage to increase this summer as we saw last summer. Consumers are increasingly enjoying the freedom to roam domestically, thanks to Unlimited, and to roam internationally, thanks to the freedom of Roam Like at Home. As we see roaming increase in Europe, we're also seeing roaming increase out with the European footprint. There is no restrictions on the pricing of that roaming. Let's see what happens in the summer, but expect continued growth.

In terms of competition in Sweden, there's been a lot of commentary on the price fighter segment. Comviq remains very strong within that, we launched some new propositions in the quarter. We don't feel we need to match the competition at every level. We have the stronger brand in that segment. We have the stronger network coverage in that segment. We've got the strongest distribution as well. In the main brand segment, it's been a fairly neutral quarter for the main brands. No reaction to Unlimited Together yet. We're only really starting to market that now, let's see. Remember, versus the average ASPUs in the market, the Unlimited proposition is still well ahead of that. If you think Unlimited is SEK 500, our average ASPUs are still today only around SEK 200.

This Unlimited Together offer is a fantastic opportunity to continue to drive ARPU up in the market, our unique network economics really helps us supply that extra data demand at very minimal incremental cost.

Terence Tsui
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you. If I could just ask a real quick follow-up on the dividend distribution. Do you think the dividend payout on day one will be based on the full run rate of the synergies, or will the dividend payout be based on as the run rate of synergies are realized? Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

It will be based on the equity free cash flow of the company at that point in time. Obviously, the new board of directors will be able to give some more clarification around that when it's formed later in the year. It's very much linked to underlying equity free cash flow. That is the ordinary dividend objective.

Terence Tsui
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Erik Strandin Pers
Head of Investor Relations, Tele2

The leverage-

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Terence, just to be clear, we have got the integration teams up and running already now so that we can already start to realize benefits from the synergies on day one.

Erik Strandin Pers
Head of Investor Relations, Tele2

Yeah. I just wanted to add, Terence, that the target range for leverage is the guiding principle. Depending on where we are on that will decide how much extraordinary cash distribution there can be.

Terence Tsui
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question from Johanna Ahlqvist of SEB. Please go ahead.

Johanna Ahlqvist
Analyst, SEB

Yes. Thank you. A few questions from my side, if possible.

Operator

Sure.

Johanna Ahlqvist
Analyst, SEB

First of all, you touched upon the increased competition in the Swedish market and how, I guess, you haven't seen the impact yet, but I'm more referring to how April has started on the B2C side. Did you see some impact from the increased competition? Secondly, related to the Dutch joint venture, I was wondering if you do expect any remedies related to this. Also, I noticed a slightly weaker intake and increased competition in the Dutch market. When do you foresee that Dutch mobile will be free cash flow breakeven? Any change to that? I think I stop there. Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thanks, Johanna. Yes, you're right. The new price plans came into play towards the end of the quarter in Sweden. It might be a bit too early to draw any definite conclusions from it. We've, however, launched a full range of new pricing for Comviq, and as I said to Terence, Comviq remains a very strong brand with great network quality, great brand perception, and very strong distribution. Which means that, for Comviq, we don't need to lead price discounting in the market to stay very strong. Our Unlimited Together proposition is just really starting to be marketed now as well. Too early to say, but we've got strong positions in both the price fighter segment and the value end of the market. We've got new news coming to the market all the time. In terms of the Dutch JV, obviously, we're in a regulatory process.

It would be inappropriate for me to comment on anything related to remedies or anything. You are right that the intake was slightly weaker in the quarter. The Dutch market has been and is a tough market. It has become a bit stiffer in this recent quarter due to FMC bundles, very much driven by the Dutch duo and escalating pressure from the MVNOs. That obviously made the quarter a bit tougher than prior quarters. We're still growing mobile end user service revenue on a like-for-like basis. In terms of looking forward and getting to free cash flow breakeven, because we're in a regulatory process, again, I'm very limited to talk about future guidance in that market. We're very much focused on getting the deal closed at the moment. We're in good dialogue with the EU, with T-Mobile.

Just to be clear, that in whatever scenario, we wouldn't accept continued cash losses in the Dutch business anyway.

Johanna Ahlqvist
Analyst, SEB

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thank you.

Operator

We will now take our next question from Thomas Heath of Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

Thomas Heath
Analyst, Danske Bank

Thank you. I think you answered my question on the Netherlands in the last response. Thanks.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thanks, Thomas.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question at this time, please press star one. If you wish to cancel your request or you find that your question has already been answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. Our next question comes from Ulrich Rathe of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Ulrich Rathe
Analyst, Jefferies

Yeah, thank you. I have three questions, if I may. The first one is following up on the discussion of Swedish mobile prices, in particular in this Hallon, Vimla type competition. How do you interpret this in terms of motivations? Why do you think this has kicked off now? Is this an attempt to flush out consolidation? Is it just the usual back and forth? Is it just to address market share issues, or how would you interpret this? The second question is related to this. I think you've been asked whether you're seeing any effects in April. I'm wondering how you would see this looking forward. How likely do you think it is that these no-frills price issues affect the main brands? Then I'd like to ask about the financial framework. What's the motive to change this?

I understand the initial outlook was indicative, and now you're nailing it down. I was just wondering whether you can talk a bit about the motive of raising, particularly the leverage range. My last question would be on the quarter. It's a bit of a nitty-gritty one, but I noticed that the other operations in mobile had a quite high EBITDA, was up SEK 30 million year-on-year. What's going on there? What's driving the SEK 30 million higher EBITDA on a year-on-year basis in other? Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thanks, Ulrich. My goodness, you've given us a lot of questions this quarter. Taking them from the top. Swedish mobile, how do I interpret it? Listen, this segment has been very competitive for quite some time. Hallon and Vimla have always been trying to fight to win new customers. We remain very strong. Do I see it as I'm trying to flush out consolidation or competition? Not really. It's just their latest campaigns. Probably partly driven by the strong campaign that we put into the market last year when we doubled the data on Comviq, as we really pushed to liberate more connectivity to our customers. I think it's just yet another push, and we are happy so far at how our brands are defending themselves against that. How likely do we see any effect in the main brands?

Well, as I said, the main brands are staying strong. The main brands, we haven't seen any major push yet. Obviously, we are now focused on how do we offer more for more on the Tele2 brand. We're doing that this quarter with the Unlimited Together campaign. As we look forward into the future with Com Hem, we'll be looking at the range of additional services that we can offer to give that more for more concept that allows us to differentiate the main brand and the main brand segment away from the price fighter segment that is very much focused on mobile only. In terms of the motive for the financial framework, it was very much a preliminary framework that we announced in January.

We always had the intention to make it more specific. We wanted to do that after we had the chance to engage with not just our shareholders, but also the shareholders of Com Hem, post the announcement. The analysis were done that proves that we're going to be a highly cash generative asset with attractive synergies that can only enhance that going forward. We will increasingly be a Baltic Sea challenger that is more robust with a more diversified set of cash flows. We therefore know that we can maintain investment-grade credit rating at a leverage of 2.5 to 3, which then determines the financial framework for the shareholder remuneration policy going forward. There's been good dialogue between our board of directors and the Com Hem board of directors to agree on this as well.

Finally, on other operations, Lars, you want to pick up on that?

Lars Nordmark
CFO, Tele2

Yes. On the other operations on the EBITDA, Ulrich, is obviously two components there. One is the IoT business, which is growing nicely from a top-line perspective. We also had some one-off recognitions coming in from a revenue perspective that helped the EBITDA. We are still estimating this business to be at about SEK 100 million EBITDA negative for the year, so we're not walking away from that. The other line item there now there is very much related to our group HQ and the shared operations, and they will be around SEK 60 million to SEK 70 million, I would say. They also fluctuate somewhat from quarter to quarter, depending on when we charge things out to the countries.

Ulrich Rathe
Analyst, Jefferies

Very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now move to our next question from Lena Österberg of Carnegie. Please go ahead.

Lena Österberg
Analyst, Carnegie

Good morning. I'll ask on Kazakhstan then, because I think that's the only thing we haven't touched upon.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thank you, Lena.

Lena Österberg
Analyst, Carnegie

I think that you already reached your target on reaching a 30% margin, which is, as you say, one year ahead of target. I was wondering where do you think that the margin can go from here? Also, I was wondering if you could potentially comment on Telia's disposal of Kcell. There's been some press reports that your partner, Kazakhtelecom, is one of the interested bidders. I was just wondering how would that go? Would that trigger your put call option early if that's a successful bid by them for Telia's asset? Then maybe finally, also on Swedish mobile business you've had for quite some time now, very low CapEx to sales ratio. That's, of course, because you're building together with Telenor.

I was wondering, do you see any need in a step up in that CapEx to sales in the next two to three years?

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thank you, Lena. On Kazakhstan, yeah, delighted that we've hit our 30% EBITDA margin target, rest assured we will not stop at that. We will aim to go higher. We have businesses today that consistently do well, 35% in the Baltics, we will continue to develop that business for as long as we are running it. Expect it to go higher, but I'm not going to give you a number. On Telia's disposal, lots of rumors in the market. Kazakhstan seems to be a rumor-mongering market. I can't comment on the accuracy of those rumors around Telia's disposal. As you would expect, our shareholder agreement has customary non-compete clauses in it, obviously, we would stick to the terms of that contract should those rumors come into fruition. Finally, on Swedish mobile.

We've had low CapEx to sales ratio for quite some time. The network is performing brilliantly, considering that we've seen data growth increase by almost 50% in the last year. Any need to step up? We're preparing for 5G, really 5G, as you will have seen in recent reports from some of the vendors, is going to be much more of an evolution from 4G rather than a revolution of 4G. There is no consumer use cases out there at the moment that says that there'll be any immediate need for massive small cell deployment, which was what some rumors were. I think over the next couple of years, you'll just see us continue to invest in capacity upgrades, invest in upgrading our network for 5G readiness. It will be more evolutionary than revolutionary.

At the same time, we'll be moving towards the end of needing the 3G network, and that's something that we're actively looking at at the moment as well, as we aim to focus on 2G and 4G for the long term, and aim to have not just the most efficient network but also reduce the need for the amount of energy that we have in our networks as well. No immediate setup required in the next couple of years.

Lena Österberg
Analyst, Carnegie

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now move to our next question from Stefan Gauffin of DNB Bank. Please go ahead.

Stefan Gauffin
Analyst, DNB Bank

Yes. A couple of questions. First of all, very strong numbers in the Baltics, but there seems to be increased price competition in Estonia. Just wonder, has this been ongoing throughout the quarter, or when did this start? Also, if you could say what kind of measures you're taking in Estonia. Secondly, on Kazakhstan, there's a slowdown in subscriber intake. Is this intentionally or is this due to competition? Finally, you mentioned that your integration team is already up and running relating to the Tele2 Com Hem merger. Can you say anything about your view on the expected synergies?

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Okay. Thanks, Stefan. Yes, very strong results in the Baltics. No, the increased pressure in Estonia has been there for quite some time. What you see is telemarketing and very aggressive selling has been going on for quite a period, and it kind of ebbs and flows. It was quite high in the quarter, but it was throughout the quarter. What you're also seeing is that we are starting to lose the service revenue that we had when we were providing Starman with a mobile broadband product. Obviously, Elisa bought Starman last year, and we are gradually losing those customers as a result of that. We're taking a number of measures. We had a new CEO arrive on April 1st, and he's using that as an opportunity to do a full strategic review over Estonian business. Not just our pricing, but also competitive practices in the market.

He's looking at marketing and discounting, we're actually down there for a strategy review in the next few weeks to see what his plans are. No, we won't accept these trends for much longer. The team are actively looking to reverse the trends. Kazakhstan, yes, the slowdown in intake, we're really focused in revenue growth in Kazakhstan and not going after short-term intake targets. We've had a fabulous run in Kazakhstan. We are seeing the number two in the market be more competitive again, particularly as their 4G coverage starts to be further rolled out. Our Net Promoter Score is very high. Our brand quality perception is very high. We're very happy with the EBITDA and the revenue generation that we're getting despite a slightly slower intake in the quarter.

On the integration teams, yes, the great thing we're seeing is culturally these two organizations are very similar. That's why we believed these companies would work so well together when we brought Tele2 and Com Hem when we announced the deal earlier this year. Yeah, we have work streams on every key area of cost and revenue synergy. It's early days. They're obviously being targeted with a number that is higher than what we've announced externally. Both Anders and I are very happy with the progress so far. Obviously, it's too early to talk about a specific new number.

Stefan Gauffin
Analyst, DNB Bank

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

We'll now take our next question from Usman Ghazi of Berenberg. Please go ahead.

Usman Ghazi
Analyst, Berenberg

Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got three, please. Firstly, just on the network costs, could you perhaps give a bit more detail on how that's being managed to be kept flat despite the data growth? Is it just lower spending to vendors, or is there something more structural going on there? My next question was on Kazakhstan. Has your view about the put option changed given the margin dynamics that you're seeing and obviously the revenue growth continues to stay quite healthy. Is there anything that would change your mind on an exit out of this market? The third question was just on the Baltics again. The operational gearing this quarter was weak. In Q4, we saw 200 basis points improvement in margin on broadly the same amount of service revenue growth. If you could comment on that would be helpful.

Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Okay. On the network costs, no, it's not lower spending. It is actually structural. We started to cloudify and virtualize our network in readiness of 5G, but also as part of our challenger program a couple of years ago. We're starting to see the benefits of that, because we're able to run the network increasingly with software, where previously it was hardware that was required. Yes, a structural move in anticipation of the future is one of the reasons for us managing the network so well. We've also got one of the best spectrum portfolio in Sweden. When you've got increasing demand for data, having a great spectrum portfolio is critical. On Kazakhstan, no, our view of the put option has not changed. We are in active dialogue with Kazakhtelecom about what happens in March 2019.

Obviously we're very happy with the dynamics that we've seen in the business, and how that will help us realize a great return for our shareholders as and when we serve the put option. Finally, the Baltics, Lars, are you okay there?

Lars Nordmark
CFO, Tele2

On the Baltics margins. It's very stable in Estonia and Latvia. What we did see in Estonia, because of quite intensive competitive pressure around telemarketing and also win-back campaigns, the margin went down in Estonia. As Allison alluded to earlier, we've got ongoing measures to be implemented, which we would expect to take effect in the second half of the year.

Usman Ghazi
Analyst, Berenberg

Okay. Thank you. Could I perhaps ask a follow-up? In Sweden, how much of the spectrum that you have is actually being utilized? Do you have a lot of spare capacity on that or?

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

We still have capacity, absolutely, at this point in time, but we're always looking ahead as well. I can't comment on the specific number. I'd need Thomas Helbo, my wonderful chief network officer or chief technology officer to be sitting alongside me. No, we're in a great position. Our networks are very strong in Sweden and proving to be very strong despite the increased data demand.

Usman Ghazi
Analyst, Berenberg

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now move to our next question from Nick Lyall of Société Générale. Please go ahead.

Nick Lyall
Analyst, Société Générale

Morning. Could I maybe ask two please, Allison, on the Dutch business, you'd mentioned the intake was a bit weak on subs, but also the EBIT dilute is a bit weak too. You can't give us guidance, as you say, but is there anything you could tell us about maybe the speed of savings? Has that slowed down, or has marketing had to increase in the quarter? Because trends seem a little bit more difficult with EBITDA. Secondly, just on Dutch cable regulation and the potential for that, what's your expectations there? And what sort of regulation would you need to see to make a material difference to your broadband business, do you think? Thanks.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Okay. Thank you, Nick. Yes, EBITDA was a bit weaker in the quarter. There were a bit of issues on unloading onto our own network with some high-end iPhone phones. That is now being resolved. The big thing in the quarter that is not been there previously is we have now got a retention bonus, that is flowing through the quarterly numbers. Obviously what you would expect as we try to retain key talent during the regulatory approval process. John and the team have a stream of initiatives that they are always working on to improve the underlying performance of the business. In terms of Dutch cable, obviously we are appreciative that the regulator has clearly acknowledged that the Dutch market is a duopoly, which is very much consistent with our view of the market and T-Mobile's view of the market.

However, we are of the opinion that the draft regulation really failed to effectively address the negative competition that has resulted from the duopoly. We are in the process of pulling together our response to the shortcomings in the ongoing consultation.

Nick Lyall
Analyst, Société Générale

Right

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

We do not believe it is enough. That is why we believe that our deal with T-Mobile has the best chance of reigniting competition in the Dutch market.

Nick Lyall
Analyst, Société Générale

That is great. Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thanks, Nick.

Operator

We'll now take our next question from Irina Idrissova of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Irina Idrissova
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, good morning. I just have a couple of questions. On the new leverage policy, could you just talk about the outlook of sustainability of the over 100% equity free cash flow payout? Clearly, you expect EBITDA growth to support this, but is this a midterm goal, say over the next two, three years as you're delivering synergies, or are you thinking about it as an even longer-term expectation? On a related note, how important is it for you to maintain the investment-grade rating, and why, I guess? My second question is on Swedish B2B. If you could just talk about the competitive dynamics in the SME market in the quarter, that'd be great. Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Okay. Obviously it will be for the new board and the new CEO to talk about the long-term potential. If you look at the potential for sustainability of 100% of equity free cash flow payout in the next few years, it's very clearly coming from the combination of two businesses that both have underlying and growing positive momentum in their EBITDA today. On top of that, you will have the synergy realization. On top of that, you've got a couple of clear asset sales in the Tele2 footprint. I think that alone will clearly justify the policy that we introduced this morning. How important is investment grade? The new company will have a significant amount of debt. It's important that we're able to go to the market in good times and bad times, and be able to access funding easily, and at competitive rates.

That's the intention of this new policy. We do believe at 2.5-3, we'll be able to maintain the underlying investment grade that Tele2 has today. We'll be able to access the right amount of funding, not just from the Swedish market, but also from European markets as well. Sweden B2B, yet trends are getting better. It's still a very competitive market. Underlying voice and data still has price pressure within it, but we are really starting to see the benefits of the converged offer of combining Tele2 and TDC to take that to customers. We've had very successful wins in recent quarters and haven't had any major churn in recent quarters either.

That gives us the confidence that once Roam Like at Home is behind us in the second half of the year, we'll be returning to positive territory again.

Irina Idrissova
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Right. Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Peter Nielsen of ABG. Please go ahead.

Peter-Kurt Nielsen
Analyst, ABG

Thank you. Just one question, please. Relates to excuse me, Swedish EBITDA, which even adjusted for the high equipment sales, looks a bit weak on the margin side. Anything you can add on the underlying cost levels? The B2B synergies have now been achieved. You've obviously talked about the roaming impact, anything else you can tell us about the underlying OpEx developments and why the margin still looks a bit light in Sweden? That would be appreciated. Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Yeah. Well, it was a particularly strong quarter for equipment sales, Peter, we had one major account, in the enterprise segment by quite a significant, they upgraded basically all of their employees' phones in the quarter. That really skewed it.

Peter-Kurt Nielsen
Analyst, ABG

Okay.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

You've got the one-off, you've got the SEK 46 million one-off that we mentioned. You've got Roam Like at Home. If you look underlying, Sweden Mobile EBITDA is above the 30% level. Of course, the Swedish team are continuing to look at driving out cost efficiency and synergies going forward. We also, in this quarter, had quite heavy marketing investment in the B2B segment, as we launched the Äntligen campaign, we haven't had any real marketing investment in the B2B segment for quite some time. Those are some of the reasons for the quarter being slightly weaker than normal, Peter. Very much in line with what we expected, and very much on track for improved momentum in the second half once we have some of the headwinds behind us.

Peter-Kurt Nielsen
Analyst, ABG

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you, Allison.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thanks, Peter.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sunil Patel of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Sunil Patel
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yes. Thank you for taking my question. Just one question, please, on timeline for the Netherlands deal. Has the deal actually been filed? I believe it's T-Mobile who does the filing. Has it actually happened yet, or are you still in the discussion phase, what are the milestones from here where we get to hear around whether it's a phase 1 review, phase 2 review, and so on? Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thanks, Sunil. As you said, this is very much a T-Mobile-owned process, we are in active dialogue with them and the commission. We are in the pre-notification phase. Filing has not yet happened, but it will happen this quarter. Obviously after filing, the commission have a few weeks to get back to us with an indication as to whether it will move into phase two or not. You should be hearing something over the summer, I would expect.

Sunil Patel
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

In terms of the dialogue, it is all very much going according to plan, Sunil.

Sunil Patel
Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Thank you.

Erik Strandin Pers
Head of Investor Relations, Tele2

Operator, we are approaching the end of the call time. I think we have time for one more question, please.

Operator

Yes. We will now take our final question in the queue from Andrew Lee of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Andrew Lee
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I just had two. One on fixed line, we'll call it consolidation. Secondly, on the spectrum auction. On fixed line consolidation and municipalities that have fiber network, Telia has talked about the potential to consolidate some of those assets. Is that possible in your view? Could Tele2 get involved here in any way? Just secondly, on the upcoming spectrum auction. Three already appears to be struggling with customer perception. If it doesn't get an allocation of spectrum when this auction comes about, I think it's still expected to be in the third quarter, what do you think happens then? Is this something where the regulator will have to step in and support it? Do you think this is a market that could actually undergo cold consolidation to become a three-player market?

Just any thoughts you have around that would be really great. Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

First of all, on fixed line consolidation, obviously neither ourselves or Telia talk about any M&A. There are a lot of smaller players out there. They are small in nature, but I can't really comment. We're very much focused on the Com Hem merger at the moment and not looking at anything else. That gives us real scale in the fixed line market. In terms of the spectrum auction, again, I can't comment on the implications for one of my competitors. We are all of us in the market, however, in deep dialogue with PTS at the moment to ensure that the spectrum auction is done in a way that continues to encourage investment and competition in the Swedish market. Still an active dialogue with the regulator on that upcoming auction.

Andrew Lee
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thank you.

Allison Kirkby
CEO, Tele2

Thank you, Andrew.

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue.

Erik Strandin Pers
Head of Investor Relations, Tele2

Thank you, everyone. That concludes the call. Thanks, everyone, for listening in, and goodbye.

Operator

Thank you. That will conclude today's Tele2 Q1 Interim Report 2018 conference call. Thank you for your participation, ladies and gentlemen. You may disconnect.