Hello, and a warm welcome from our side. Michael Pistauer speaking, Co-CEO and CFO of the company, to our Montana Aerospace earnings call for the year 2023, and presenting together with my colleague, Kai Arndt, also Co-CEO of Montana Aerospace. He will later give you a very detailed outlook and overview over our most important segment, aerostructures, also the name giver, and, then we'll discuss it in detail. What are the ongoing trends, and also our impact to the industry there? Let me upfront start with a quote. A quote, which, is, to be fair, very positive in our regards. We are very happy about it. Montana Aerospace is seen according to a very well-known magazine in the aerospace, in the industry, the so-called Flight International magazine, as the fastest growing aerospace player.
We are proud because this reflects very in detail our clear, very, I would say, ambitious development. Hopefully in the future, we will see not only that Montana Aerospace is the top sales growing company, but also the fastest growing company in EBITDA, and earnings, and cash flow. Some of the goals we have already achieved, and we will give you a guidance also for the years 2024 to 2025. The financial year 2023 for us was in general a very, again, challenging, but very positive. We have grown our net sales by around 10% to EUR 1.4 billion, and the adjusted EBITDA reached a height of EUR 138 million.
The first time, since a couple of years, I would say since Corona, we have reached again, a very positive free cash flow for the full year of over EUR 50 million, EUR 52.6 million. Please keep in mind that, the EBITDA growth on the first site might not look too much, but in 2022, we had out of M&A transactions, I will come to that one bit later on, around EUR 13 million in EBITDA, so we increased our EBITDA by almost EUR 14 million within one fiscal year. The balance sheet is again strengthened, mostly by the reduction of the net debt, the refinancing, which comes as a later point, also in detail, the reduction of the trade working capital, and the strengthening of the equity ratio.
The only point which was to be met in 2024, by the way, is a positive net income, was not reached in 2024. Main point for not reaching yet a positive net income in 2023, was the impact that we suffered from the financial result, with a one very unfavorable FX development, which is non-cash, but still, impacting the net income. And also pre-refinancing relatively high interest costs, which should be lowered within the year 2024, and to 2025, significantly. Let me then, in detail, discuss the segments later, as well as also the guidance for the year 2024. What we all have together in all three segments is a very clear mission, or let's say, strategy.
We want to have a very clear USP and a very clear understanding of how we structure our businesses within the value chain. Coming to that one in detail, also later in the discussion of the segments, gives you some highlights of 2024, 2023, sorry. One of the highlights is, in any case, the massive increase, again, of our so-called contracted sales, so if I may call it, also the order backlog, with more than EUR 7.5 billion contracted sales only for Aerostructures, only for this one segment. Gives us a very clear understanding and security for the next years, how to reach our ambitious goals on sales and also on EBITDA, and more or less secures our sales growth for the next ±6 years from now on. Another highlight of 2023 was the refinancing.
The refinancing is, at least for Montana Aerospace, was a critical milestone as we had a financing, which was mostly supported by our old majority shareholder, MTC AG, in the years before 2023. Some KPIs or covenant criteria were still linked to some sister companies and also to MTC. In 2022, this financing over promissory notes brought us in a situation which was very unfavorable due to a very negative development of VARTA, our sister company. With the refinancing, which happened in September, in autumn 2023, we are now completely ring-fenced and have the foundation for a positive growth within the next years from now on, on our own. The positive and side effects are, that we have reduced our balance sheet by that.
We'll also lower the financial result in 2024 onwards, and have strengthened by the lowering of our balance sheet, some, also our equity ratio. If you continue with the highlights of the key financials, we had grown by around 10%. As said, in 2022, numbers still on topic of acquisition was still part of it. We sold the machine building capacities of Montana Aerospace late 2022, with around EUR 100 million worth in sales. So the growth on a like-to-like basis was even stronger than the 10% shown on a year-on-year basis here. The EBITDA, very, I would say, sustainable basis for further growth with EUR 137.7 million. As also here already mentioned, the adjusted EBITDA in 2022 was impacted by positive M&A transactions by around EUR 30 million.
So on a like-to-like basis, from around EUR 100 million to EUR 137 million, reflects almost a 35%-40% growth. As guided, we lowered massively our CapEx. The large capacity increasing programs in Aerostructures mainly were finished in 2023, and therefore we have a very sustainable basis and a high capacity also in Aerostructures, which can be filled right now with the contracted sales. And on the other hand, this lowers, of course, the CapEx spend, not only in 2023, but also in the ongoing years. Trade working capital, we mentioned in September 2022, that on the trade working capital we have reached, with over EUR 500 million, our absolute peak. It was a strategic peak those days because we didn't want to fall in any shortcut on the supply side. We therefore had a lot of inventory on our stock.
Since then, we streamlined our trade working capital and reached another reduction. Together with the growth of sales, a very positive and cash-producing element with EUR 294 million, we are around 2% lower than what we had in the year 2022. Total assets lowered, mostly by also the refinancing and the reduction of cash on the one hand side, but mostly on the gross debt on the other hand. And this, of course, also strengthened our equity ratio to almost 50%. We come to that one a bit later. Net debt reduction in total reflects the positive cash flow and the free cash flow from a still negative free cash flow in 2022, has also guided a positive free cash flow in the year 2023.
A bit stronger than what we expected, and gives us, again, a very confident view also on the year 2024 for our guidance on the cash flow basis. Now coming to the different segments, we will start with the most important segment, Aerostructures, which again showed a confident growth. Here I would like to hand over to Kai to give you a detailed overview of the developments of Aerostructures.
Good afternoon, also from my side. I'm happy to share the current situation with you, and I was really looking forward for the call, because for me, the numbers from 2023 are a confirmation and proof of our concept. We heavily invested over the last years in our structure and our portfolio, and with all the heavy investment, it was very clear that we need volume to make use of the investments. And as seen in many of our presentations, we invested in a unique system, for me, incomparable in aerospace. I'm working in aerospace since more than 30 years, and I think the system is difficult to be copied, and now we see that it's paying off.
So we, as mentioned by Michael Pistauer, we have an order book about of about EUR 7.5 billion. We won only in 2023, another EUR 500 million of new contracts over for the next years. So, it's confirming that the investments we have been done, that they are now paying off. So, as said, for me, that's the proof, that's the confirmation from the big customers, that they want to invest further in our company, and then, they also rely on the system we have in place. You saw the outlook, and Mickey mentioned it. So I think in total, we have an invested capacity in the moment of EUR 1.2 billion.
And, I do think that we will also achieve the industry benchmark in terms of the margin we can achieve in this segment. So ultimately, we are targeting for roughly 20% EBITDA margin in the segment, and the utilization of our system today is around 60%-70%. Of course, in the planning for 2024, we saw another increase in terms of the utilization, which is then ultimately bringing the margins in 2024. Of course, this was based on the fact that we need the organic growth from the OEMs, and I'm pretty sure you are curious to hear about the impact of the 737 crisis.
I will come to it a little bit later, but you can also see in the planning, we are targeting to be above EUR 900 million, from EUR 723 million for the year 2024. You will see another steep increase in terms of the sales numbers, and ultimately, of course, then this will also lead to better EBITDA margin bottom line. So that's where we are today. What does it mean in terms of the impact we see in the moment with the incident of the 737? First of all, I'd like to mention that this was a big hit to our industry, because it put in question how safe it is to fly.
As a passenger who is flying every week and normally flying every week with a 737, I can tell you I feel completely safe in flying with the 737. And I think that's the main topic of this incident, so that Boeing needs to work on the quality topics and make sure that for every passenger, it's the feeling of flying is again a safe one. So that's definitely the main topic, and I'm pretty sure after talking to my Boeing colleagues more or less every week, they're doing everything to fix the situation and to manage it, and I'm pretty sure they will do it.
For us, in terms of the planning, we had already a more conservative planning in terms of the ramp-up scenarios from both of the OEMs and for all of the customers. So we were a bit more conservative than the official announcement you have seen in the press. So therefore, the impact of any different scenario might be lower than expected. So, in our planning, we had a ramp up from the last year numbers to 37, to 42, and by the end of the year, beginning of next year, to 47. So that was the planning for the 737 in our books. And, whatever scenario is now coming for us, then the impact will be managed in terms of this planning.
We know that the Q1 results in terms of deliveries are even lower than the Q4 results in 2023. So, obviously, the impact is already seen in the deliveries of the 737, and there is a good right to say that Boeing might not achieve even the cap 33 37, so sorry, which is the cap from the FAA. So there might be a good argument to say, "Well, even the cap is not achieved by Boeing." But anyhow, this was also the case for Q1 in the last year.
Whatever the scenario will be in the end, and if I just take the current numbers of 32 in the 737, and we just calculate the impact out of this number, then we will see unmitigated and maybe an impact of 4% in terms of the sales numbers. Of course, if you take our current system, there's a huge variety in terms of the technology. So we have the Aerostructures part in terms of the technology, and we have the detailed parts and vertical integration part. For Aerostructures, we will hardly see no impact out of the scenarios, because all the open capacity, which might be the result of lower rates, we can immediately fill with other contracts, sometimes even with better margins.
So on the exclusion side, there will be no, no impact out of whatever scenario is, is valid in the end. For detailed parts and vertical integration, it's different, so there is definitely no chance to have a fast fill up of the capacity if there will be lower scenarios. And so there might be an impact on the overall sales number, but the EBITDA impact should be manageable and should be in a very low single-digit percentage number for the company. So that's the impact out of the 737 program. If there are further questions on this one, of course, I'm ready to discuss it. Yeah, that's the current outlook.
As said, we want a lot of new packages, and I also like to mention that we try to diversify our portfolio, so we want also some remarkable packages from a space provider. So that's definitely something which is diversifying us and is making us more robust if some of the aerospace businesses are struggling. So that's definitely also remarkable, and it will be increase in terms of the percentage of sales.
... for the next years to come. So I think we are quite robust in terms of what is happening on the OEM side. But allow me one comment in terms of the industry itself. I don't think that there are so many other industry with such a growth path in front of us. So there's definitely a very positive outlook. Whatever the ramp-up will be in from the big OEMs, I think the industry is set for success, and in the Aerostructures segment, definitely Montana Aerospace is playing a big role in terms of exploiting the current system. That's for the Aerostructures segment in detail. If there are some questions later on, I'm happy to listen, and hopefully I can give all the answers you expect.
We continue with the other segments. Let me shortly elaborate on the E-Mobility segment. It's the smallest segment. You remember, we had a very strong growth in 2022 in comparison to 2021. 2023, I would say, mixed feelings. Why? We lowered the net sales out of the good, good reason, but on the other hand, increased the EBITDA in absolute terms, and also more interesting, also in margin levels. So very strong earnings concerning EBITDA and income and cash flow on the one hand side, but a lower net sales. What happened? We do have a capacity of around up to EUR 220 million on total sales. A good part is the legacy business.
This was extremely strong and, in many cases, compensated what was lost in the non-legacy area, which is the recycling of material, recycling of aluminum, of alloy, production of billets, which we of course use ourselves, but the excess capacity we usually sell to the third party, third market, to the market. Here we have to say that 2023 was impacted by very low demand and also great imports of such billets, mostly out of Turkey, and actually over some sources out of Russia and Iran to Europe. And therefore, also our third-party sales in this non-core business was lower, but as that didn't impact the EBITDA, so mixed feelings about e-mobility. Concerning guidance, 2024, we are also here a bit cautious but positive optimistic on the development of the sales.
Nevertheless, with, again, strong EBITDA to be expected. E-mobility, next and last segment is Energy. We still see a tailwind in this market, in this industry. The demand for our products, the copper cores for transformers and high voltage generators, is unbroken. The only constraint we have is the capacity which is installed there. So simply said, every milligram we produce is already pre-sold, and this with increasing margin levels, and a very strong partnership with our customers, which give us also here, very positive possibility to guide for many years from now, with more and more long-term contract in hand, which is a more or less, the need for capacities for the ongoing Energy transition worldwide. Net sales of EUR 567 million, more than 18%.
I said the only capacity, the only constraint in this area is the capacity, which we already started to increase in 2023, and therefore, we have also the possibility to grow in the next years to come. Let's go on some details of the financials. When we look at the cash flow, which is for us, a very important KPI, please, on the next page. Then we see that there is a strong operating cash flow, mainly in the year 2024, and mainly here, also impacted, in the Q4, late in the Q4, 2023, by a strong business. I'm sorry, I don't see the, the slide is shifting to page number 15. So hopefully you can see that one on the presentation. I'm not sure about it.
If not, I apologize for the technical topics. So I just continue, and then we'll tell the slide number if you don't see it on the presentation in parallel. The gross debt was reduced, ongoing with the free cash flow from EUR 700 million to EUR 450 million. This was part of the refinancing. What we did is simply we paid back the, promissory notes with the unpleasant covenant criteria, within the refinancing. Also did not need this, I would say, high amounts of cash anymore, and therefore, also reduced the balance sheet some. The net debt was therefore also reduced from EUR 280 million to EUR 275 million this year, by positive cash flow, a free cash flow of over EUR 50 million.
Please never forget that we did some, I would say, efforts in 2022, not to fall in any breach of covenant criteria, which still impacted 2023, our numbers. So therefore, without those, I would say, supportive topics, our free cash flow and net debt reduction would have been even higher. Something which is, and hopefully will be reflected in 2024 onwards. Going on the details of the trade working capital. We had some-- and the operating cash flow. The operating cash flow on page 15 shows that we had a very strong fourth quarter.
The reason for it is that the one topic is that we had a continuous growth in all the segments, and many of these excess costs, inflationary costs, are invoiced by the end of the year, so third and fourth quarter, and this is reflecting also the positive development of the EBITDA, and of course, also of the operating cash flow. Further, also, the CapEx was continuously lowered over the last quarters. This also positively impacts the operating cash flow as well, the trade working capital reduction.
Please keep in mind, and that's why we also had on this slide, the last two quarters of 2022, that by the end of 2022, when we saw potential impact out of the refinancing of the financing with the covenant criteria, with including our sister companies and MTC, that we did some extraordinary efforts to lower, I would say, our net debt and increase our cash flow, which had some negative impact till in 2023, something which is now on a permanent level, not anymore. So therefore, 2024 will show a continuous growth, also on the operating cash flow and the free cash flow without any impacts out of the past.
When we go to the details of the trade working capital, one very crucial element on the one hand side, to be ongoing, able to deliver and support our customers. Yeah, we want also the, to keep on, to stay in a position to jump in when others maybe are not able to deliver, which is possible due to our long value chain and the capability, therefore, to jump in when others have problems with their supplies, which is always helping us also to continuous growth. We had a high, a peak in trade working capital reached in the third quarter, 2022. That's also when we announced to continuously lower the strategic high inventory, so I would say more normal levels. We are on good development terms here with EUR 294.
We will see, concerning also the percentages in the different areas, a continuous reduction in 2024 onwards. I said net income, not yet on a permanent level, positive, and mostly impacted by a very high 2023 negative financial result, around EUR 60 million. Around a third of this negative financial result is out of non-cash relevant FX changes in the balance sheet. The rest out of, I would say, unfavorable situation of the financing previous to the refinancing, and therefore, with the refinancing finished and closed, we are positive on reducing all of these impacts heavily, and guide also here for lower financial results in 2024, and therefore, also for a positive net income together with the growing EBITDA on a permanent level.
Saying that, also the other KPIs of the group developed in, let's say, in the area of the guidance and all our clear expectations, production performance, plus personnel expenses, under proportional. Even so, we always have to upfront higher personnel expenses in the higher build rate and also our market share growth, and therefore growth, but still under proportional on the personnel expenses. Other operating expenses and net income in 2022, highly positive, impacted by the M&A transactions. So it was not a deterioration in 2023, but mostly a positive impact in 2022, which did not happen in M&A in 2023 anymore. So therefore, also, I would say a more sustainable basis, what we see right now on the operating expenses and income saldo for the next years.
In saying that, we can therefore guide, but before we guide, maybe a short comment on today's technical issues we had on the homepage. Sorry for that one, but somehow with an external provider, the homepage in the morning broke down, and therefore only the numbers and all the details were shown a bit delayed. It was an external supplier. That's how it is, and maybe this once again, positively, undermines our strategy to have the full value chain in our core business, in our legacy business, which is the three segments we showed you, in our own hands, and therefore cover more or less, as good as is possible in all areas, the full value chain without any suppliers. Guidance for 2024, unbroken.
And we already have in our guidance included, I would say, a potential reduction of some build rates, as already mentioned by Kai. Before when he covered the topic of Boeing and also Airbus, we guide for adjusted EBITDA, again, a growth of around + more than EUR 180 million, and a positive, continuous positive free cash flow as well, which is also for us very important, the positive net income and the streamlining, continuous streamlining of the trade working capital as a percentage to sales. For 2025, based on the contracted sales we have in hands in all three areas, in all three segments, a sales growth to—organic sales growth to around EUR 2 billion in total sales, and an EBITDA grows to more than EUR 250 million.
Saying that, thank you very much for listening to our presentation of the financials 2023 and also the guidance, and we are happy to answer your questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered a queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use only handsets while asking a question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question comes from Phil Buller, from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for the question. I have three, actually, if I may. I'll ask each one at a time. Firstly, perhaps this is one for Kai. Thanks for the update on the MAX exposure. Just to clarify, is it right to assume that the slight tweak to the revenue guidance wording for 2024 is that 100% related to the MAX situation? And also, can you perhaps share if there's been any other smaller sequential changes on other programs? Perhaps, have things got easier or tougher on the A320, A220, 777X, or anything else you'd point to? That's question one. Thanks.
Yeah, thanks for the question, and I'm of course happy to answer it. And yeah, it's good to hear that you also referenced to the other programs, because in all the discussions we have around the 737 MAX crisis, we ignore a little bit that also on the long-range side, talking about the 350, the 787, mainly, we see a massive ramp up, and fortunately, this one is at least in the moment, it's still ongoing.
And we see that the ramp up is in line with the announcement from the big OEMs, especially when it comes to our North American sites. There we have a big exposure to the 787, and I'm happy to see that this ramp up is still in good shape. You asked about the slight sales adaptation, and yeah, you're correct. That's already an adaptation based on the 737. But I also like to say that there is no official announcement yet. We are of course speculating about the impact that might come, but for the moment we still have the demand in the purchase orders, which is—which was planned.
But, as you can see, the delivery numbers in Q1, there's definitely a good reason to say that there might be some adaptations on the OEM side when it comes to the single aisle, especially from Boeing.
Thank you. A follow-on question, I guess, also on Aerostructures, but ASCO, what can you provide a bit of an update on what's happening there? It was obviously still a drag in 2023. Can you just provide us with an overview on what the current situation is there and how we should think about the contribution from that business in 2024, please?
Yeah, another very good question. So ASCO, as you know, we acquired ASCO roughly two years ago now, and the integration of ASCO, as expected, was not an easy one because we, that was the first time that we have more complex assemblies in our portfolio. And from the very first beginning, it was the intention to in-source as much as we can in terms of the supply chain of ASCO. I think that the integration is still running pretty well. So the numbers from 2023 confirming that we are on track in terms of the margins, but not on track in terms of the sales. So ASCO is heavily exposed to the wing manufacturing.
As you know, for the A320, the wing manufacturing in Broughton is ahead of the schedule, and so there was an impact in 2023 on the sales numbers in ASCO. But fortunately, in terms of the margin, ASCO delivered. And that's a very good message, in terms of how far are we with the integration of ASCO for 2024. We see a, well, a significant increase, both in terms of sales and also in the EBITDA, and we will continue to in-source as much as we can into our own, into our own system. And that's again, confirming that, as much as we can control of the supply chain, the better it is for the company.
There we have a lot of initiatives running in 2024, but also in 2025, to in-source as much as we can, and I think we are on track with these initiatives.
Thank you. And just a final one, really. I guess, you know, it feels like the MAX is the topic of the day, but overall, there's a lot happened in 2023, and a lot of progress has been made on the gross debt and the refinancing, and there's a lot of things to be pleased about with the core business and the structure and shape of the balance sheet. So I guess the question is: where is M&A on the agenda now? And also, on the other side, what's the latest thinking on a potential separation of ASTA, please? Thanks.
Um, yeah.
Thank you very much.
Let me start.
Okay. Sorry.
No, no, go ahead, Michi.
Maybe, yeah. Let me, let me start with the, the progress you see in terms of the development of the company, and then I will hand over to Michi, when it comes to the M&A activity. I'm just coming from Toulouse, so Montana Aerospace is now part of the strategic supplier panel in Toulouse, with Airbus. I think that's a remarkable success for the company. And the second one, only yesterday, we received a letter from Boeing that we are now a premium partner in their point of view. So I think that's again, underlining the, the path we are on and definitely is a proof of concept in terms of the strategy.
So we are clearly very happy to see that also from the OEMs, they are seeing us now as a strategic partner. And now I can give to or hand over to Michi.
It was a perfect introduction because, M&A has many shapes, please, Phil. We are a strategic partner in the meantime of the OEMs and also of large tier, tier ones, and they name us and serve some kind of potential M&A targets on a permanent basis. But sometimes, or let's say differently, we only go into an M&A if we think it's highly accretive for the company, and if we have a possibility, to bring it to a good EBITDA cash flow and net income level with a very decent period of time.
But companies which are maybe situated with a lack of quality within the sales pipeline in countries which are not called best-cost country footprint countries, but high cost countries, this is sometimes not the best business case, and therefore it makes more sense maybe to take over the work packages, I would say, the sales pipeline, and have an organic growth on our own, with our own capacities, instead of taking over those companies. So therefore, I would say that the good portion of our sales pipeline increased the contracted sales, which we showed and present like I, is also based on some indirect takeovers in 2023. Nevertheless, we look at many companies right now.
I also have to admit, or we have to admit, that when we started to go public in 2021, we thought that the potential window for interesting M&A transactions is maybe ending in 2024. Today, we have to admit, it doesn't even really started. We now see a massive increase of potential transactions on the table, even some stock-listed companies are sometimes discussed to be looked at. So therefore, yes, we look at many, and we will therefore also continue our path of organic and inorganic growth. But also here, some restrictions, only if it's to be financed out of our free cash flow and only if it's highly accretive and not impacting negatively our net debt/EBITDA covenant criteria.
But I think we will see something in the, let's say, next years from now.
Thank you. And on-
On ASTA?
Yeah.
On ASTA, and, yeah, here we, we have a very clear path. I mean, we have this tailwind, these tailwinds makes us, somehow, or brings us in the situation that we have to increase the capacities, otherwise the energy transition worldwide will not be supported enough. And this can be financed by our own means on free cash flow, but maybe to-
... have a more faster growth possibility. We also thought, and that's what we reflect on, a more, I would say, independent development of ASTA. And here we are still, I would say, in a potential preparation of such possibilities. But let's see, if it's highly accretive for us. We like the segment. It's a, it's a very good development, a very strong development, very reliable. We have the possibilities with a bit stretching also to finance the growth to up to EUR 1 billion on total sales before the end of the decade ourselves. But if there is a good possibility for what kind of, what's it? More independent development of Montana Aerospace, we are open to it. In any case, 2025 will be the position in it.
Understood.
2024. Sorry, this year. Sorry, 2024.
That's, that's understood. Thanks very much.
Okay, thank you.
The next question comes from Aymeric Poulain from Kepler Cheuvreux. Please, go ahead.
Yes, thank you. Good afternoon. I've got also three questions, if I may. The first one is on your sales guidance for the aerospace division. It seems very strong. So just curious about the drivers of this, you know, 30% plus growth in the aerospace business. Is it some leftover of price increases? Is it some of the contracts you were expecting from ASCO that are finally kicking in? Or, I mean, just could you give a bit more color on the assumptions behind?
And again, just to clarify the impact of the 737 production halt, could you remind us the 4% that was mentioned earlier, what is it exactly? Is 4% if we stay at the current rate of production of Boeing, is that the right thinking? And perhaps could you also remind us what is the last year's contribution of the 737 MAX to the aerospace division? So that would be for the first series of question on the aerospace sales guidance. Secondly, on the free cash flow guidance, that it should be a positive free cash flow.
Could you just clarify again, are we talking about positive growth of free cash flow or just a positive free cash flow? And what would be your assumptions for CapEx? I understand you started adding capacity in the energy division and adding CapEx there. So could you just give us an update on that CapEx plan for the energy division, please? And last, on the energy division's sales guidance, you seem to assume no growth despite this capacity increase. Could you explain also what underpins this assumption? Thank you.
Okay. So I hope that I got all the questions. If not, please then correct me and raise it again. So the sales increase is, I confirm, is significant in the Aerostructures segment. It's a mix of different things. So you mentioned price increases, and you will probably understand that I cannot go into detail, but we were happy last year with the discussions we had with the main customers, and we found solutions more or less on all the contracts we are owning. So that's a part of the growth, but not the biggest part of growth.
Organically, of course, the volume that is coming in from the ramp up, and I mentioned earlier, that it's not only on the single-aisle, so not only on A320 and the 737, but also massively on the long-range programs we are owning. So that's organically what we have already in place. Inorganically, I would call also the new contracts we won. So they will kick in in 2024, but also massively in 2025. And we are still winning new contracts, so I expect in 2025, 2026, another big portion of the growth path is coming from new contracts we are winning.
In terms of the MAX portion, to be very detailed, it's around 20% of the sales in 2023. It's coming from the single-aisle program from Boeing. Then, this is where I based my calculation on, in terms of what might be the impact if we stay on the current rates. To be very clear, the current rates of deliveries in Q1 from Boeing were around 30, even less than that. And the cap from the FAA on the deliveries is at 37-38. So provided that Boeing will manage to increase the delivery rates, I think that there might be not the big impact we all saw for Q1.
But anyhow, to talk in numbers, this is where I was coming from when I explained the impact of the 737. And here we need to know the 20%. It's a little bit more, but the 20%, again, is split between the different technologies we have. So in terms of extrusion, I don't see any impact, whatever the rates will be in the end on the 737. So the impact is only on the detailed parts business and the vertical integration, and there we have to find mitigation actions to overcome some shortfalls in terms of the rates.
... So overall, it's a mixture of different things to come to this EUR 900+. It's in the planning. We have EUR 950 for Aerostructures. So, I'm quite confident that we see some sales numbers around this number. I continue with the cash flow. Well, yes, that was the second part of the question. Cash flow is simply said in like growth in absolute terms and in percentage. That's what is ahead. We have slightly more CapEx due to the energy growth ambitions here.
But, we have a, I would say, decent development of the trade working capital in our guidance, due to the streamlining of the trade working capital percentages, a massive reduction of the financial results due to the refinancing and development of the interest rates also here, and also the positive free cash flow. And so therefore, a growth in free cash flow, on both areas, growth absolute and also in as a percentage. Concerning energy, here your question was, the funding of the growth and the growth path. Yes, we guide this year for over EUR 600 million on total sales, so this is already a positive impact of the started program concerning capacity increase.
The years 2025 onwards, we guide for a growth of EUR 100 million more sales on a yearly basis. Based on the CapEx, we started to invest 2023 already in energy. But also here, we fund this right now, a bit stretched growth, CapEx program, by the free cash flow generated in energy segment itself. And, this is already reflected already in our guidance. So if there is another strategy, this would then maybe be possible to have a faster investment and therefore also a faster growth. But, we stick to that plan right now of a growth of around EUR 100 million sales on a yearly basis, 2025 onwards.
Very clear. Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star followed by one. The next question comes from Beltran Palazuelo from DLTV. Please go ahead.
Hello, good afternoon, Michael, Kai, and Marc. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three. First of all, regarding the 2025 guidance, if I'm not wrong, the numbers are around EUR 2 billion in revenue and EUR 250 million EBITDA, well, more than EUR 250 million in EBITDA. It seems if you do the numbers the other way around, and I think Kai was mentioning that around 2025, we should already, let's say, reach the 20% EBITDA margins in every structure. It seems to be a little bit more than EUR 250 million. So what has to happen in order to not, let's say, get to next to EUR 300 million in EBITDA? That is my first question.
Maybe, well, the next two ones, I can take them once you answer that question.
Maybe a short answer on the first topic, the 2025 guidance. Yes, we guide for around EUR 202 billion on total sales, split up into 3 segments, with around EUR 250 million on EBITDA. Still, there is a very clear, also from our side, I would say, strategy behind. We always want at least to meet the guidance, the first thing, and second thing, you have to always to expect something which is not be seen right now. So expect the unexpected. There will be impacts, which might then need to be worked around. This is also included in the guidance. If you simply structure the financial model without those impacts, it might be even higher, the EBITDA. That is correct.
Okay, so maybe, let's say EUR 30-40 million buffer can be actually a good estimate.
We calculate with some uncalculated topics, which are not foreseeable right now. I would say the history of the last years showed that those topics always come, and therefore, we stick to our guidance of around EUR 250 million.
Okay, thank you very much. And the second two questions I have is regarding balance sheet. Of course, you were talking about, let's say, the expected increase in energy, but we're seeing your numbers and seeing that you're quite confident and that your working capital should stay more or less stable, it looks like, let's say, a free cash flow generation in the next 24 months should be between EUR 200 million and EUR 300 million. Why so much? Let's say, it looks like quite conservative, no? You're always talking about these EUR 100 million of energy that the company is doing in a conservative way. It looks like if nothing happens, the company should reach the end of 2025, even with dividend, with, let's say, zero on the debt. So why so conservative?
Then regarding, let's say, the dividend, when the war, Russia-Ukraine started, your stock was over 30 CHF. Now, clearly, you're showing that this company, at some point in the near future, can generate next to EUR 200 million in free cash flow. What other tools does this company have to make the stock price reflect the intrinsic value? Is at some point the buyback or extraordinary dividend in the cards? And then the last question regarding legal costs in the last quarters, if you could give me a little bit more detail. Only lawyers, is a settlement with Arconic or what happened in the last quarter?
I start with the latest one. Yes, the legal costs were enormously high. We had these legal issues with Arconic, something we always wrote in the last years in our also annual report. It is a topic out of the past that, as you know, we had also made some announcements last year. But still I would say that the impact of the legal cost is something we had to digest in 2023. Once it comes to the invoices, it's not when the the trial is taking place, but it's taking place from the, the lawyers then a quarter or two quarters even later. That's why the impact was in the late 2023 happening and also impacted our total numbers quite heavily.
What to expect here in 2024 on these terms, I would say nothing serious anymore. Only the normal way of lawyers, which we have for our ongoing business in different areas, but no law case anymore. This is the one topic concerning our dividend policy. This is unchanged. We have, at least from our side, as the management, we want to have the guide for at least the possibility to support a dividend in 2025 for the year 2024. Supported also by a positive free cash flow, reduction of net debt, and also a positive net income. If it's been decided, it's up to the shareholders, but from our side, we want to propose it, and we would propose something like a third of the dividend payout ratio.
This is, I think, a healthy possibility also for a company, and every good company should at least have the possibility to generate a payout ratio and then pay a dividend. Whether or not it's decided, it's, I said, it's part of the shareholders. Nevertheless, also here from our side, the net debt reduction. We had net debt of a bit more than 2x net debt/EBITDA, a bit more than 2x after around 2x in last year. We want to be, for the future, lower than 2x net debt/EBITDA.
So which brings us also to the point that we want to slightly lower it, but on the other hand, brings us also the possibility with our free cash flow to not only grow organically, but also inorganic, inorganically, so M&A.
Yeah. So the question, Michael, if you are guiding to close to EUR 200 million in EBITDA for 2024, and you're guiding, let's say, for more than EUR 250 million in EBITDA, and you have clearly stated a buffer, if the maintenance CapEx is EUR 50 million, and then you're already executing the Energy and the Energy we would need, let's say more than around EUR 100 million for the next, on the decade. So if you have, let's say, EUR 15 or 20 million every year, it seems that even though there's working capital movements, there should be, let's say, more than EUR 200-250 million free cash flow. So that brings even though the dividend payment, the net debt to zero at the end of 2025, if no big M&A occurred.
Are you thinking about anything, let's say, to get the, let's say, the stock price to reflect the intrinsic value or at the moment working on you let the stock market?
I think that our continuous growth or delivery of the different KPIs, even upfront to potential KPIs or consensuses, should bring confidence in our stock and therefore also then be reflected in the share price. Nevertheless, please keep in mind that the maintenance CapEx is the one topic. On the other hand, there are possibilities to grow, not only M&A, but we have very good with the overview of the possibilities also to to grow inorganically, which we will also drive... organically, excuse me, which we want to drive further in the area of Aerostructures and not only in Energy. But, we yes, so we have a very confident view of our future, and this is already reflected in our guidance.
Okay, thank you very much.
Maybe allow me one personal comment on that, because Mickey touched on the share price development. So I'm investing in companies for more than 20 years, and I added roughly 10,000 shares in 2023 into Montana Aerospace by myself. So there should be some indication that I'm completely convinced that this company is right on track. I think investing in companies always has 2 pillars. One is the robustness. Mickey touched on the financing, the new financing we achieved last year. We have a solid plan and a strategy where we from quarter to quarter confirm that we are in line with the strategy.
That's the second topic, and for me, there's then the third one is the fantasy in terms of what can this company achieve. And we discussed lengthy about our-
... growth plan, but also, the ambition to come to this EUR 2 billion of sales and EUR 200 million of EBITDA, which I think is a good recipe for success and should be reflected also in the share price.
The next question comes from Michael Koch from Bellevue Asset Management. Please, go ahead.
Yes. Hello, gentlemen. Just, just two questions, actually, just for actually the purpose of understanding or modeling. I mean, the first one on ASCO, I don't know if you could give us, like, a ballpark figure of where it is currently in terms of turnover or just an indication. Obviously, we expect good growth now in 2024, also in terms of margins, but just to understand where we ended in 2023. That would be the first question. And the second question, just for illustrative purposes, you know, if we look at the shipset value at the group level, blended. I'm not looking for nitty-gritty details now, but I remember at the time of the IPO, you were giving that on a project-by-project basis to give us an illustration.
If I'm not mistaken, for the group level, or let's say for the aerospace division, it was about EUR 300,000 per plane or something like this, which has probably doubled now since that then. Just wanted to see, you know, where would we go from now with the visibility. You're talking about the EUR 7.5 billion book. Obviously, you see this probably further increasing. I mean, certainly not maybe by the same extent of what we saw from, you know, since the IPO until now. But, I mean, whatever you could give us in terms of figures or illustration, just to have some grasp on this, just for the purpose of understanding some of the drivers of the growth looking forward.
Okay. I think I will take the first question on ASCO. So, in detail, in 2023, the turnover was around EUR 270 million, and we achieved EUR 20+ million in terms of EBITDA. And the outlook for ASCO should be around EUR 340 million, and we are targeting to come to a mid-20 number in terms of EBITDA. Of course, there are always some risk and opportunities, but I think for ASCO, ASCO is exposed to Airbus programs, so not impacted by the 737, at least not too much. So there will be a robust plan in terms of the achievable numbers, in terms of revenue and EBITDA for 2024.
The EUR 340 million you just mentioned, this would be for when? Did you specify?
That's for 2024.
Ah, for 2024. Okay. Yeah.
Yeah. That's the targeted number for 2024. And for the Q1, I think we are on track with the number.
Mm-hmm.
Hopefully there will be no impact from the OEM on these numbers.
Yep. Okay. Thank you.
I thought we have a very promising development in the first quarter, so therefore, also giving us confidence for our guidance 2024. Concerning the shipset value, let me also clearly answer on that point. We gave some, I would say, indication during the IPO. To be fair, it's not so easy to be calculated, because at some point it's also in many planes used, so we can't pinpoint it to one single platform. Also, we have to say still that we have larger planes, like the wide-body planes, which still have many, much more material included at the end, also value. But all in all, we have a very, I would say, over the full family of Boeing and also Airbus, a very balanced shipset value.
This is, I guess what we can guide on that point, so we don't have too much impacts, or we have more or less no impacts, whether it's a more A320 or a 737, whether it's the A350 or a large Boeing plane. This is more or less on equal terms on all areas. Whatever plane it is, we are happy about it, which is then built on. The last question, I have to admit that the line was shortly broken, so please, would you be so kind to repeat it once again so that we correctly understand it?
Sure. Actually, I only had two questions, so I think you answered probably the last one was a follow-up or an add-on on the shipset value. But I mean, what you said is clear. That's... But I was just wondering if, I mean, I understand that on the mixed basis, you're happy because, you know, whether you have more-
Yes.
or less in a plane, that's fine. But I was just wondering if there is still an increase, per se, in terms of value per content.
Yes.
Value per content you see shipped, you know, in average, but, you know, in the past, obviously, it was quite massive. You know, it was in double-digit area. But would you say that from now, just as a rule of thumb, are we talking about like a mid-single digit growth, per annum in terms of shipset value? And then, this would come on top of the volumes assumptions. Not that I'm-
No, I get. No, I'm trying to give you an answer on it, very simplified. You see that we grow, yeah. We guide again for around 200, more than 200 million growth this year on aerostructures only when we talk about this segment. So this is reflect, reflecting something, almost 30% growth. And this 30%, I would say, is simplified, that it's coming from three different areas, more than a third, definitely from the win of market share, and this is nothing but an increase of the shipset value.
... So thank you, Kai, for you and your team, for doing a sensational job on that point. So we'll be increasing our market share here. I would say a bit less than a third is coming out of the growth from the ramp-up of the build rates. We discussed with Mickey in the first half of this call where we have a bit more conservative view in general, but we see right now that it's coming also. I would say so some decent reliable data in the industry at all. And the rest is mostly in non-OEM based aerostructures or aerospace business, so it's space and aero, but not only Boeing and Airbus related topics, but also other customers. Yeah.
Yeah.
Also here, the growth, so space is growing also quite rapidly. So hopefully this helps you.
That's very helpful. Very helpful. Thanks a lot.
The next question comes from Olfa Taamallah from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Hi, Kai and Michael. Thank you for taking my questions. I have actually four. Maybe a quick follow on with the 777X. If you can detail your assumption on production rate for 2024 and 2025. My second question is related to the supply chain. I guess that it creates a big mess around the supply chain, and the pressure is quite significant. So wondering if you can comment a little bit what you are seeing currently with regard to a negotiation with Boeing and Spirit given, I mean, the cost overruns so far. And how do you see, I mean, the health of the supply chain? Where do you see risk and opportunities today for you? My third question is related to ASCO.
You have mentioned EUR 10 million impact from supply chain issues. If you could elaborate more on that. Are you still seeing same issues or new players are involved today? And when do you expect to have the certification from Airbus, namely? And the last one, if you could elaborate a little bit on Q1 performance and how it compares to last year. I'm not sure to get your comment on current MAX production. You have mentioned the rate 32. So, what would that imply on aerospace performance? And as well, if you can comment a little bit what you are seeing in on energy and eMobility. Thank you.
Okay. So well, let's try to work on one after the other. You mentioned the 737 situation in terms of rates, and you also mentioned the 2024 and 2025. Of course, that's a bit like looking in the crystal ball, but in our planning, I explained that the ramp up towards the 47 was in the plan for 2024 and 2025. And of course, the announcement from Boeing was on 52 during the course of 2025, and this is what we also had in the plan.
I said that we were a bit more conservative in terms of the speed of the ramp up, so that is now helping us a little bit in terms of calculating the possible impact if there would be some reduction in the rates. But of course, we will be ready to plan whatever is needed and hopefully to find mitigation actions. And of course, for 25 it will be by far easier than on short notice, if something will happen in terms of the rates in 2024. So we are working on that. As said, it's for extrusion, it's not a big topic as we can sell immediately the open capacity to other sources. That will be even a positive impact in best case.
But for detailed parts and vertical integration, there we need to work on what does it mean if in 2025 we also see lower rates. But it's not confirmed, and I don't have any indications that for Boeing, it means that they will not recover in 2025. The situation, of course, from the OEMs and especially from Boeing, is very fragile when it comes to supply chain issues. So if they might lower the rates in 2024, I think it's not so easy to speed up when they recover.
So they need to maintain a certain level of delivery from the supply chain, including us, of course, to be ready to ramp up after they manage the crisis and hopefully get the release from the FAA to produce even higher rates than the 37 or the 38. So that's somehow what Boeing needs to come with, and I hope they will protect their supply chain in terms of accepting even higher rates during the course of 2024 and then 2025. You mentioned the impact of supply chain. I think the EUR 10 million, that is for total, it's not only on ASCO. So there were some supply chain issues over 2023, and it's continuing also in 2024.
So this is why we want to become more and more independent from our supply chain, and we are trying to in-source as much as we can. We have some successes on this side, so we in-sourced already some of the detailed parts business, mainly to Romania and also to our site in Vietnam, but it will continue in 2024. The Spirit situation, I not sure if I heard it correctly, but I think you mentioned the rumors and the announcement in the press that Spirit might be taken over by Boeing, or let's say, will be brought into their the Boeing system again.
I definitely think that might be a positive move, not only for Boeing, because they are definitely deleting complexity out of the supply chain. I see it very positive if this will happen. Of course, there will be some adaptations, arrangements with Airbus necessary because some of the Spirit sites are also delivering to Airbus. I definitely think Airbus and Boeing are in talks to find the best solution available, but in the end, it will definitely take out complexity from the supply chain, and this is always better also for us as one of the suppliers into the system, that can only be helpful also for us. If this provides any opportunities for us, definitely I think yes, because the consolidation in the supply chain is needed.
We hear that every time one of the big OEMs is giving a press conference, they want to de-complexify the supply chain, and consolidation is one of the topics. This is where we come into play, and I think we are ready to help the OEMs to de-complexify the supply chain.
If you also see in the development of the first quarter for the last question, so we started very solid, and this in all three areas. But mainly I would say Aerostructures and energy, and within our guidance, also in E-Mobility.
Thank you very much. Very clear.
Ladies and gentlemen, as we are already running over the time, I would now turn the conference back over to Michael Pistauer for any closing remarks.
Thank you for attendance. Thank you for being a part of our large Montana Aerospace family. We are happy to start this 2024 year, again, with a very positive-