Thank you very much for the introduction and to everybody listening to today's call, a warm welcome. I see the list of the attendees in front of me. I guess I know them all. Happy that you are here. Thank you for attending. I guess I can start with a very simple statement. Wow, times. Thrilling times. Never in my lifetime of, or at least working time, I've seen such a sequence of, I would say, changes within the economic environment. Changes which can be tough sometimes to digest or to sit convenient to work with. On the other hand, which gives a lot of chances.
When we talk about Montana Aerospace, I can tell you up front that, yes, it's sometimes really means as much work to find solutions for the topics which occurred in the last 12 months, and let's say in the last years, and finally, also in the last nine months. On the other hand, they gave us opportunities we never have dreamt of. Let me start with today's earnings call. I will give you an overview of the development, how we as a management, how we as a company see the situation as an outlook of what to expect for the fourth quarter, 2022, and what does it mean at the end also for 2023 as aerospace and our business is a, I would say, more long-term development business.
Therefore, also a guidance, a bit of a, I would say, introduction, what to expect for 2023. Then later we should have enough time for Q&A and detailed questions on certain topics. This chart is a chart we have put on purpose. You see the air travel and the development over the last 40, almost 45 years. There were some times impacts which gave a downturn of the development, mostly very short term. Gulf crisis with Iran and Iraq war. At the end, there were slight movements in the curve, which was always going constantly up. We know with COVID, it came down rapidly, but came up also extremely fast.
This fast increase right now offers us opportunities because it's more or less leading with the downturn upfront to consolidation of the business as we have never seen it up front before. To give you some of the, I would say, highlights of what you have to work with in our business, and I'm sure you too, but in different shades. Here are some snippets out of, I would say, some of the most crucial issues we have to face with on a daily basis. We have tailwinds, like, yes, the energy crisis, as you call it, on the one hand, brought us a headwind, which is immense. In many cases, gas rose by a factor of 30 on the megawatt hour, and we use a lot of gas and electricity also for recycling.
On the other hand, it pushes worldwide, as never before, the energy transition into new development, more efficient ways of increasing also the electricity production. This drives our business in the segment of energy as never seen before. With a good outlook for the not only next year, but I would say even for the next five to 10 years. It drives, on the other hand, also the electrification of the E-Mobility business, which is on both ends important for us. On the one hand, in the segment of energy, where we produce the copper cores for in the meantime more than 100,000 cars on the street on a yearly basis, which are driving then, I would say, which are the core for the E-Mobility.
On the other hand, in the sector E-Mobility, where we build the battery packs and where we could deliver more than ever, due to the changes. On the other hand, I don't have to tell you, the headwinds we faced this year are sometimes really challenging for the companies. There's a war for talent. HR is not easy. If you build up workforce and search for talent, it's worldwide not an easy issue. You have to work around with different means. I guess with our global footprint, we have quite some good solutions. Even so, it's sometimes on a daily basis, quite challenging. On the other hand, we have seen a rapid ramp-up of the build rates of Airbus and Boeing.
Even so, maybe the ramp-up is not as announced maybe in some times of Boeing and Airbus. It's still extremely fast growing up from the low rates we have seen one or 1.5 years ago. This is pushing the supply chain in a way we have never seen up front before and sometimes gives chances, which we also have not dreamt of. For this case, for instance, we can announce, and we will announce it later, that in the meantime, we have order a contracted sales or order backlog of more than EUR 5 billion on contracted sales. Definitely also one of the highlights which we achieved during this year. With all those tailwinds and headwinds, where are we?
We have taken a path a couple of years ago where we said, "Okay, based on our setup, we're investing heavily, 2016 to 2022 is the investment phase." Based on a high win of market share on high contract, this is the contracted sales. We enforce our global footprint and the local to local structure we have, because we thought and still think, and I guess we are more than encouraged by the present situation. This is the right approach to face the future demands and also challenges of this business. That is investment phase, and then later on, as a very reduced CapEx, because it's long-lasting, investments which we do, and they're lasting, in many cases, 10, 20, 30, 40 years or even larger.
Build up on the contracted sales growth, a very, very profitable business on a global footprint. Right now, I would say we're right, a bit more going this year from the light yellow left part to the now bearing the fruits, area. We're right now in the transition. The fourth quarter 2022 will be, I would say, the first one where we can definitely say we're now bearing the fruits of what we have invested in the years before. We are emphasized by the development of these global changes. Where are we concerning our total development? We have increased our top line quite significantly with 62% over the, in comparison to the last year, Q3 2021 to Q3 2022.
EBITDA, I come to that one in detail, also increased, but in a growth rate, which is around half of the growth rate of net sales. Which is partly due to the mix and partly due to the fact that we increased our, I would say, footprint in Aerostructures, also with the acquisition of Asco. I come to that one a bit later on, and we always calculate it with Asco with a zero EBITDA contribution to this margin this year. So therefore, it's slightly dilutive on Aerostructures. Upfront, we will give a guidance, which is slightly, at least from our, confirmed in any case on the upper range, which we gave. We even have the potential and think that we can overachieve this one in the fourth quarter, 2022.
The main driver then is in all the areas to be searched and found. You will see that the adjusted EBITDA in comparison to the net sales is also increasing, at least in the plus or minus in the area of the growth of sales for the total year. Breaking it down into our three segments, I would like to start and give an overview with energy on the right-hand side. Energy, we have seen a growth of 21% in comparison to last year, the first nine months. Definitely over the development of the industry. September is definitely a milestone concerning also the energy segment.
We have closed the transaction in São Marcos, Brazil, which is extremely important for us to have this global footprint and also more capabilities in recycling and also the, I would say, market share in Americas. For the first nine months, only the balance sheet of the transaction is in there. Let's say the purchase price and not the sales yet. Sales consolidation starting with the first of October 2022. I would like to give a bit of a glance to this transaction. We took over the company by paying at least partly only by taking over all assets and trade working capital, but we paid only the. We didn't take over the liabilities, but took over inventory and receivables and paid partly for that one. It's a highly accretive transaction.
With the help of this transaction, we are able to materialize immediately from the first day on, as we have the chance to use the capabilities they have, the capacities they have in recycling. We have the material and therefore, also with other action items, we think that we can almost pay off the half of the transaction by the year's end already. Energy is an area where it's a project-based business. This project-based business, on the one hand, gives a good visibility for the months to come. On the other hand, that's something we always guided. There is a time lag concerning the pass-through of costs. In case of inflationary or highly volatile costs. That's exactly something we have faced this year.
The high energy costs mainly, and also HR increases, inflationary costs, will show their positive impact. The negative impact in the first nine months, but the positive impact by high increases of the prices in the fourth quarter to the fact that those contracts are now coming into sales. Therefore also for energy, together with the São Marco transaction. The fact that with the help of this São Marco transaction also, we can highly increase the EBITDA margins or the margin level in Americas to a more detailed construction, so that we can discount or deduct the VAT finally, and not have to see them as costs. We think that energy will over proportionately also grow in EBITDA in the fourth quarter. E-Mobility here we faced a very difficult year.
You know that in E-Mobility, we are not only producing those battery packs for most of the E-Mobility, but we have a very long value chain, starting with the recycling capabilities for most of the aluminum and special alloys. It's an energy-intensive business at the end, recycling. As it is situated in Europe and the European energy development was horrible to say, we faced a heavy increase in gas and electricity prices, which also brought us to the situation that we had to sometimes even reduce the capacities in recycling. Still here, we managed with the possibilities of the total segment and the strong demand a good development in sales. As you will see then later on the next chart, a doubling of the growth rate in EBITDA.
Also here for the fourth quarter, we expect a very strong growth in EBITDA. Also with the help of some subsidies we should generate for the electricity and gas price increase in the last months, and generate in the fourth quarter. Aerostructures, 120%. I guess this one, also for, hopefully for you, is outstanding in comparison to our peers, and we are extremely proud. It more or less underlines what we always tried to also explain, that we not only won market share, but also constantly deliver this market share onto sales. Of course, the sales growth is, on the one hand side, part of the market share. It's part of the win of additional, I would say, packages which we are materializing right now.
It's on the other hand explainable by also the M&A transaction, Asco, which is integrated since approximately half a year. Part of the sales growth, and of course, also by the ramp up of the build rates of the OEMs for their commercial airplanes. What to expect in Aerostructures also for the next year? Yeah, for the next quarter is again a strong quarter, not only concerning sales, as the ramp up of the build rate is continuing and the work package are long-lasting, the market share increase is constant. Also a very, very strong EBITDA months. Why?
Because we always declared that in all three segments we are sometimes with time lags, but we are able to pass through a good portion of our costs, inflationary costs, either materially on a more or less invoice basis, daily basis. Sometimes it's calculated on a quarterly or on a yearly basis or negotiated or a part of the contracts. When we come to Aerostructures, this exactly is happening in the fourth quarter, that the costs we had in the first nine months are now in many cases passed through with additional, I would say markups. Of course, this brings not only good sales development and operational daily business, but also a positive impact for the costs we had in the first nine months.
Therefore, we expect a very high EBITDA also in comparison to the last quarters in Aerostructures. Where are we if we look at the overview of those three segments? We talked about the sales growth in the different areas. On the EBITDA margins, E-Mobility, over proportional growth. Energy, I would say, plus minus in line. But we will see a very strong growth in Energy EBITDA development in the fourth quarter due to the three impacts I just explained. Which is the transaction and the payback of the transaction in terms of recycling capabilities, of the possibility to finally also see for Americas the VAT not as costs, but finally as a pass-through possibility or deducted. Then mainly also by the possibility, and that's the most impact, that we have increased our prices due to the inflationary costs.
The impact will be shown in the sales, in the higher sales and the higher EBITDA. In the Aerostructures, where we have the positive impact of the pass-through and the capitalization of the market share wins, and therefore, the better utilization of our capabilities. A bit more in detail concerning the longer part of the P&L. I guess you have seen, hopefully, all the press releases and the detailed, documents we have sent out. Sales growth over 60%, but on a EUR 350 million change. Adjusted EBITDA, plus minus, I would say, in total. Hopefully, in our guidance, we always said that we are increasing on a quarterly basis. CapEx.
Most of the CapEx, which is including also any FIEs, as we call it, or capitalized costs, the programs are more or less finished. The large CapEx projects is something we can say is done. The capacity installed, which is good for at least EUR 2 billion, not maybe even EUR 2.2-EUR 2.3 billion on total sales, is installed. Therefore, it's going more into the direction of sustainable capital. Trade working capital, yes, again, increased. Looking into the details that already have seen the impact at their highest peak in September in all three segments. As São Marco was a trade working capital-only transaction, it increased once again in E-Mobility segment of trade working capital. We should see a quite decent reduction within the last three months of this year.
Our expectation is that with this EUR 503 million, this is the peak we have seen at Montana Aerospace now going down quite constantly and permanently. Bit more deep dive into the different areas. The results for the period impacted by high depreciation, which is around EUR 100 million, but also by the financial result. Here, we have a one-off also due to, I would say, the VAT issue we discussed up front. But all in total, we think that also concerning the fourth quarter, we should see on a quarterly basis in 2022 already for the consolidated level, a positive net result. Not yet on a unit basis, but on a quarterly basis, definitely on a higher range. Production performance increased.
Personnel expenses, slightly under proportional. Here we have, of course, received quite some headwind, as many companies also, due to the lack of qualified people worldwide. For instance, we could produce more in the US, but still here it's tough to get the qualified people. In all the other areas, now also in the US, we help ourselves with our global footprint. For instance, Indian and also Vietnamese workers, people, colleagues working in Romania, and hopefully in future also in the US. This helps a lot, but of course, the inflationary cost is something which is passed through then in the quarters in the future. What did we calculate with? Yes, we calculated with a certain increase, so it's not that far away, and it's something which is almost part of the calculation of our products in the future.
Other operating expenses, mainly here driven by freight and energy costs, and this gives a very good view of how heavy the impact of those issues was or is. Therefore, I guess we are quite fine with the development, and I'm happy then to show the results of the fourth quarter, where we are mostly then passing through and get paid back a good portion of those inflationary costs. Net debt increased on a year-on-year basis. Main impacts are threefold. It's the transaction of Asco, it's the transaction of São Marco now in September in the balance sheet. Of course, the heavy increase of trade working capital, where we have seen the peak by September 2022. The number of employees, a constant growth, under proportional.
The most growth we have in Romania and Vietnam, and this will be also the future growth areas, mostly in comparison to the other regions. Trade working capital. The main impact we have for the trade working capital is, of course, out of the inventories. We always tried to explain that a material crisis, a transportation crisis, as it is called, it's not something which came up this year. It came up already mid 2021. At least, that was the starting point for our very heavy increase of inventory increase worldwide to not fall in any shortcut when the ramp up of the build rates and the sales are going up and not having enough material. Even so, it's a high cash demand.
Linked to that one, we think that it was more than the right decision. It's paid back by the trust of our customers and although within this consolidation phase, the trust for future rate packages which we want and will on a permanent basis. Therefore on the right-hand side also, the increase of the contracted sales, which is maybe a good indication of this trust we had. Cash flow negative. As said, the main point is the acquisition and the high inventory, acquisition, which is in São Marco's case, receivables and, inventory only, but increased it by around 70%, EUR 70 million, the trade working capital. On the other hand, also the acquisition of Asco, which had some free cash flow negative impact.
CapEx, as said, our guidance was around EUR 90 million, but the most CapEx projects are close to finished capacity installed, so not too much amounts to be expected by the year end. From then on, 2023 onwards, it's more or less in the area of, I would say, sustainable maintenance capital in the area of around half of our depreciation for the next years to expect. With that, I would like to give an outlook for the year 2022, if not done already. We guided for sales of EUR 1.16 billion. We will be slightly above. We have a very good October. November is running great. So let's see what December is bringing up.
Mostly with the question mark concerning still aerospace, how long they keep on producing and the same in mobility, but definitely a bit higher than EUR 1.16 billion, excuse me. Out of this one, the majority is of course organic. Inorganic for the year is Asco, the transaction which amounts around EUR 120 million for the first consolidation month, and São Marco starting with this October 2022. Segment guidance. The fastest growth in aerostructures, followed by E-Mobility and energy, all growing. The main growth is coming out of aerostructures who changed. Now the picture, if you compare it to last year, and therefore the largest segment of the three, not only in assets and growth but also in sales.
EBITDA, we guided for +7.5% EBITDA margin for this year. Due to the impacts, which I would like to once again shortly summarize, we think that we will be over 8% EBITDA margin for the updated 2022 year forecast, 2022, mostly due to a very strong Q4 2022, where the main impacts are subsidies, where we get some reimbursement of the high costs we had. Most of the impact is the pass-through in different shapes, depending on the segments of the high inflationary costs to our customers in energy, in E-Mobility and also in Aerostructures.
Of the impacts on the deduction of the VAT in Brazil out of the transaction and of course the payback of this São Marco, as we can immediately start with the first day with the recycling and the material we have and the capacities right now are also so-called green copper, which pays back quite quickly and gives a good impact also to the EBITDA margin.
With the CapEx, therefore, we guide for lower than EUR 90 billion for the year end, and for 2023 and onwards, as we reiterate and reassure that, we guide for another, I would say, over proportional growth, another 20%, but with an over proportional growth of EBITDA, and next year, a massive CapEx reduction around to the half of the depreciation and therefore also on a constant basis for the total year, positive free cash flow. Our clear goal is also a good portion of positive net income and therefore has a positive development also for the future as a starting point. That's from our side, an overview of the development, and we are happy to answer all the questions concerning our first nine months 2022 results. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask question may press star followed by one on their touch-tone phone now. If you wish to remove yourself from the questioning queue, you may press star followed by two. If you are using a speakerphone today, please lift the headset before making your selections. Anyone who has a question may press star followed by one at any time. One moment for the first question, please. Our first question comes from Virginia Montorsi with Bank of America.
Hi, good afternoon, everybody. I just had a quick question on energy. First, it's a clarification. Have your costs so far tripled or quadrupled? Because I think in the slide there's a three dash four. Just wanted to clarify on that. Could you help us understand a little bit how to think about 2023 for the energy cost? Do you still expect them? You know, basically any color you can give on that and how to think about the phasing. Thank you very much.
Virginia. Thank you. Hello. From our side, 2021 to 2022, it's around a tripling of a bit more than a tripling, to be clear, almost 3.5, I would say, to be exact, concerning our energy costs for the total year. Of course, the year is not yet finished. Then we have to, at the end, on the energy costs, also maybe to deduct the subsidies we might get on those energy costs, but it's not yet clear. In some of the states in the European Union did some activities in this respect, so it's between three and 3.5, depending on subsidies.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Sorry.
on next year?
I think I answer differently, sorry to say. The most challenging topic is not a high cost, but the volatility, if no one really knows what is happening today, the next day. If you have looked at the energy prices, which is more or less not something you can fix for a long period of time in the meantime, it's only on a spot market. The spot market in some weeks doubled or tripled within a day, yeah, and then went down again, the day afterwards. This volatility is the hardest to do. We calculate with constantly high prices on energy out of different reasons, but I guess we can discuss it on a separate discussion point.
We have in the meantime, for most of our contracts, the pass-through clauses concerning the energy costs. We calculate with over around 150 EUR per MWh on energy, for next year on the MWh.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you very much.
Please.
The next question comes from Ross Law with Berenberg.
Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got three, so I'll ask them one by one. The first one's on the margin. You've obviously today confirmed your guidance for the full year, but you've also specifically stated that the margin for the full year should be around 8%. That basically implies, of course, a very big step up in the margin in Q4. I think on your revenue guidance, it implies 16%, and you've also said that you can beat that. I'm just wondering at that exit rate, what does that mean for 2023? How much of what you're doing in Q4 is one-off? Yeah, in general, if you could provide some color on your expectations for EBITDA and margin exit, margin in 2023. That's the first one.
Thank you very much, Ross. Yeah, good point. The one-offs, please let me explain it once again. It's mostly subsidies which we have. Subsidies, we only partially know whether they are coming for sure or not within the fourth quarter already. But on the other hand, they're one-offs in the fourth quarter, but we had the costs already nine months up front. That's why I won't see them too much as one-offs in this respect, so therefore, not too much one-off out of it. On the other hand, yes, we have a one-time immense impact out of the capacities this quarter, which we can generate out of the São Marco transaction.
This will continue for the future, but not of course with this first, we'll say high wave we have for the fourth quarter 2024. Most of it, I would say, is continuous basis also for the future. Therefore, we expect for the next year on a, well, I would say broader range between EUR 150 million and EUR 250 million EBITDA.
Okay. You're consistent with double-digit margin next year EBITDA?
Yes.
Okay. Thanks. Second is on build rates. Obviously, Boeing had their CMD last week, and they published their updated assumptions. I'm just wondering if you've made any changes to your internal assumptions. I think the 737 rate that they put out for 2025 is slightly below where you were previously. If you can give some color on how that's impacted your assumptions, but also the contracted sales basis as well. Thanks.
2023 is something different to answer than 2024 and 2025. If you take a look at the next three years, it is also the guidance which was given by the OEMs mostly. By 2023 different, never forget that we are part of Aerostructures, so the primary structure of the airplane. It's mostly the starting point. Usually, there are lead times which are over one year. If you're not in a business like we are, that we have it in a very integrated way. Therefore, the orders are out.
Therefore, we can give quite exact numbers already from our side, but we know quite exact what are the pull rates for us, what are the peak rates, what has been delivered from the Airbus or Boeing to the market, it might be slightly different. We expect something that, for instance, for Boeing, they announced something like 38 build rate for 2023. We are slightly below. Midterm, they calculate with here we are around the 50s. What they plus minus also announced now, we know that they announced a couple of weeks or a month ago, 57 to be in 2025, which we always said that we're not believing. Also the 60s, we never believed. We said as a result always there will be constraints on that point.
Now to our 2025, we are almost plus minus with the 50 or that's in the range of what they have also in their guidance for the—it's for the 737, sorry. For the other plane types, there's the one which is, I guess, also for us very important as we have a good market share here, is the 787. We've seen very low build rates this year, between one and two. Boeing is pushing hard to increase it fast. We have definitely lower rates than what they announced. In our calculation of financial guidance, almost half of it. I would wish to see the 10 they have announced, but we don't expect them in the years till 2025. We expect them lower.
A320 family, nothing changed to our last, I would say, guidance in this respect. We know that Airbus is trying hard to get to 75 by 2025. We have a low 60s here. Yeah. For next year, we calculate also with the higher 50s.
Great. Thanks. Final question is just on debt, more specifically, parent company MTC debt. Obviously, we had the VARTA profit warning a few weeks ago. I'm just wondering what your internal assumptions are for MTC's leverage at year-end, and obviously how that compares to the covenant at 3.85 times. Also, in this scenario that MTC would breach its covenant, what are the options available to the parent company, and how could that potentially impact Montana Aerospace? Thanks.
Ross, thank you. Some who are maybe not that aware of the situation, let me shortly explain it, why does VARTA have a potential impact to our net debt. The outcome is as follows: VARTA and Montana Aerospace and also Aluflexpack, all three listed companies, have a majority shareholder, which is MTC AG, our old parent company, holding in all the three companies more than 50% of the shares. They have own business also, but a minority interest in some industries and real estate, but beside that, no other segments. Montana Aerospace, that I would say the youngest on the stock exchange, of course, had in the past was financed by so-called promissory notes.
Those promissory notes were then had covenant criteria, which are calculated on the MTC level, and we have also guarantee of the MTC AG concerning our financing. Now what happens is, and what Ross just teased with this statement and question is that VARTA, our sister company, for everybody a bit unexpected after a very good year, 2021, in the last weeks announced that they will not meet the consensus and guidance. To be very fair, this of course was definitely something to look at very decent, but it can at the other hand is also challenging for the covenant criteria of the MTC AG, which could then indirectly, potentially, two times contribute also impact Montana Aerospace.
Here I can tell you that if I take the consensus, of course, then we are far away from any covenant breach by the year 2022 or 2023. If any, if I take even half of, I would say a quarter of the even, not even a low double-digit amount of EBITDA from VARTA, assuming that they are not producing any or only negative EBITDA for the months in September, my calculation very, let's say straightforward, then even in this case, with the development of MTC, which has a very strong quarter for the fourth quarter, Aluflexpack and our performance, there won't be any breach of any covenant criteria.
Independent from that point, what if, even if there would be a case, then we would call for the guarantee and then Montana Tech Components AG would need to meet whatever is due to either pay off or sale of one or the other non-core business, the real estate. In any case, like I said, it's not the case concerning our simulations of any covenant structure we have calculated. Nevertheless, we take this also as a, I would say, starting point to achieve, and because it's something we announced earlier than what was from our side announced or also expected, I guess, from the market to be cash positive and reducing heavily our net debt by the year's end in the first quarter.
That's something we follow up since then, this point, quite heavily to make us also concerning our financial structure, completely independent from any potential issues of the MTC, which then should be followed up by 2023, a clear cut of also any guarantees or whatever, and be independent from that point. Hopefully this answers your question. I know it's a bit complicated, but hopefully it answers.
It does. Thank you.
Next question comes from Emeric Paulin with Kepler Cheuvreux.
Yeah. Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my question. Just following up on this debt reduction process. In Q4, you mentioned the working capital having peaked. Potentially with a low CapEx and improved EBITDA, that means you may even, you know, closing in on a positive free cash flow for debt reduction. What's the scale of the working capital reduction you would anticipate in Q4? Will it be mostly also from the inventory consumption as you build up excess inventory, the buffer throughout the year? Or will it be through some, you know, financial monetization of, let's say, trade receivable or other item in the working capital? That's the first question.
The second question is regarding the acquisition of São Marco. You said it didn't have an impact on sales in Q3. Also you consolidated the consideration and the balance sheet in Q3. I think you gave a guidance for the contribution of acquisitions to sales of about EUR 150 million for the year. If I look at the EUR 120 million that you mentioned for the nine months, it doesn't look like São Marco does make a big contribution. Again, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me, given the fact you said it should make a decent contribution to the EBITDA.
Okay.
-in Q4. Could you give us, the exact contribution you would expect from São Marco in Q4?
Yeah, of course. I start with the TWC, if you allow, with the first question. Yes, you're right. Of course, we expect a three-digit million EUR amount to reduce the TWC. The main impact is out of the inventory. You're correct. I mean, I don't have to tell you, we have in the Q3 2022 for total Montana Aerospace, almost 400 million EUR in inventory. Most of it is material, but also work in process, which is then or finished goods, which is then delivered in the first quarter. This is a decent, high amount, extremely high amount to be fair, but was mostly strategically intended and also linked to the ramp up partially, and therefore there's a heavy increase on that point.
Of course that by the year's end, there will be some also I think a chase for receivables and some liabilities not paid before due time. The main impact is coming out of the inventory. In total, we expect a three-digit million EUR amount out of this impact in comparison to what we see in the September results. Concerning São Marco, we have to distinguish and not to get mixed up. We had two transactions this year. The one is Asco in the field of aerostructures, which we consolidate since April. Since the second quarter 2022. We expected here a bit lower sales contribution for the total year. We said there was a run rate of around 50 per quarter.
We have to see right now on a good performance on sales. They have a run rate of around EUR 60 million per quarter. Right now they stand up in the sales of the Q3 results for around EUR 120 million on total sales. It is going to increase by another good portion of around EUR 40 million by the year's end, at least. This is Asco. São Marco was closed in the end of September. Which means the full balance sheet is in, but not the sales. As with the consolidation date, it only starts with the sales consolidation. Here we expect for the total year, São Marco is good on a standalone basis of around EUR 80 million on total sales.
Here we expect EUR 20 million out of São Marco as a contribution for the last three months 2022. But please note that it's not including the sales number. Our internal monetization of the capacities we have concerning recycling, which has a mainly EBITDA, but not a sales impact. A massive EBITDA, but not a sales impact. For the total year, next year, we may calculate with São Marco out of this acquisition at least EUR 80 million on total sales and out of the Asco transaction, a good portion of far over EUR 200 million, more in the direction of EUR 250 million.
Excellent. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one.
I think there are no more questions. We wait for another minute. Maybe let me shortly before we stop the call, once again, give a bit of a picture of this industry we are in. It's amazing how fast the consolidation process is taking place right now. We see it in a very intensive way. We've never before had the chance for so many attractive work packages offered by the OEMs. We see, never as before, so many companies not being able to supply, our competitors, in the different tier levels of the value chain. The positive impact to find solutions concerning reduced value chain structures in the supply chain from the OEMs, and also concerning the cost level.
The awkward situation is that what we have seen in the last months was extremely challenging, annoying, frustrating. If you try to fix something like, for instance, energy prices, and the next day you see everything, more or less pushed against the wall because the prices change. On the other hand it helped in many areas to come from a, customer-driven market pricing to a supplier, driven market pricing, with a high impact, from the market demand. Therefore, we're quite optimistic also, beside, it stays still challenging also for the future. That's from our side. There's another question coming in, so maybe we directly take the next one.
Excuse me. Our next question comes from Beltran Palazuelo with DLTV.
Hello. Good afternoon, Michael and Mark. Congratulations for the solid results. Maybe a more philosophical question. It's good to see that we have confidence on free cash flow generation this quarter and you have confidence on next year. Regarding, of course, sometimes markets are irrational, but all the strong work you're doing operationally and commercially, at some point, is it on the cards when you have visibility on free cash flow generation, important free cash flow generation next year, on the and the year after next year? Is a buyback, a little buyback to show confidence on your words and also to show the market that Montana is very disciplined on its capital allocation, not only buying companies but also buying back its own shares at huge discount.
Hopefully, I understood you correctly. Yes, the confidence is keeping on for the year 2024 onwards. Please be aware that we are, you know, more or less fully booked for the years 2023, 2024 and 2025. There's some capacities, for instance, in some of the plants at Asco. We have also received a good order in this case there. Free cash flow is the main impact we are focusing on for Q4 2023 onwards and want to stay from now on forever. No, I don't know. At least for the period, for the next years, I can foresee free cash flow positive and reducing constantly our net debt level.
I would say in a short- to medium-term period, we want to have a net debt level of less than 2.5 times, and then I would see a good net debt level of two, depending on, I would say, the general worldwide situation, but definitely not more of it. This is the one topic. There's at least what is on our long-term or mid-term intent with a free cash flow positive business in our clear guidance also to our, I would say, company segments beneath. We have the one-third, one-third, one-third regulation, which means one-third payout ratio, one-third CapEx for strategic projects and one-third for a reduction of debt.
Therefore, for the midterm, I also want to have not only our segments to us, let's say, to Montana Aerospace, but also Montana Aerospace to its shareholders to show this ratio, which means a payout ratio of 1/3, which we would like to achieve hopefully sooner than later, but definitely not this year, not next year, but hopefully 2024. Is a share buyback a topic? To be very frank on this point, we have discussed it internally 150,000 times. Mark can sing, can write a book on that point. Of course, it's very attractive, but still, of course, there's a lot of discussion. Is it speculative or not? I think it would be quite entirely accretive for the company.
To be very open on this point, that we didn't get any board resolution on this issue and therefore it's not a topic for the Montana Aerospace.
Okay. Thank you very much on the topic and all my support for share buyback with my stake.
Thank you very much. What if there's no share buyback by the company, still the officers ask the C-level and the management is able to buy shares, and it's something we constantly did and also keep on going, I guess.
Thank you. Thank you for the hard work for all the team.
There are no further questions at this time. I hand back to Michael Pistauer for closing comments.
Thank you very much for attending. Hopefully see you soon. We are traveling a lot, but also keeping on going to keep our contact to our investors, researchers. We have also seen in the last quarter, first, I would say effort to have a capital base approach. We want to continue and I'm happy to stay in contact and, hopefully as here and see you soon. Thank you.