Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Comet Half Year 2024 Financial Results Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants have been placed in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. You can register for questions at any time by pressing star and one on your telephone. Webcast viewers may submit their questions in writing via the relevant field.
For operator assistance, please press star and zero. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Ulrich Steiner, VP, Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Sandra. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Comet's Webcast and Conference Call on the 2024 Half Year Results. Joining me in the room today are our CEO, CEO, Stephan Haferl, and our interim CFO, Nicola Rotondo. Before I hand over to our CEO, who will explain the results in more detail, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on page two of the presentation, and to the included forward-looking statements that my colleagues will be making in the course of this conference. With that, I would now like to hand over to our CEO, Stephan, please.
Thank you, Uli. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to welcome you to the presentation of the results for the first half of 2024. Thank you for taking the time to participate in our webcast and conference call. As Uli already mentioned, our Interim CFO, Nicola Rotondo, will be joining me today to present the detailed financial results for the year. Before we get to the financials, I would like to give you an overview of the macroeconomic and industry-specific events from January to June.
Let's move to the next slide, please. Let me start with the statement that the semiconductor cycle has finally turned back to growth in the first half of the year. Although this is not yet fully visible in our half year results, numerous indicators, which I will discuss in the outlook, support this statement. Before I do so, let me give an overview of the half year results. In the first half of 2024, we were not able to match the previous year's level of sales. Nevertheless, we managed to maintain the reported EBITDA margin at the previous year's level. The first half of the year was split in two in terms of business results.
The Q1 was weak, with net sales of CHF 81 million, while the Q2 improved to CHF 108 million, a sequential increase of almost 34%. Incoming orders also increased significantly, growing by around 30% from the Q1 to the Q2 . Compared to H1 2023, incoming orders increased by 22%. The resulting book-to-bill ratio was 1.1. Now, this development was primarily driven by the division PCT. Also, free cash flow improved.
Lower working capital and reduced CapEx in the first six months led to an increase in free cash flow from minus CHF 15.3 to + 8.1 million. We also made significant progress in our strategic investment project, which I will discuss in more detail later. First, let me talk briefly about the market environment relevant for the Comet Group. What developments in our end markets drove our figures?
First of all, I would like to talk about the semiconductor market, which has made strong progress this year and seems to have finally emerged from its long-lasting post-pandemic correction. From a slow start to the year, semiconductor sales have grown month-on-month in 2024, with microchip revenues increasing by almost 19% compared to the first month of 2023.
This is due in no small part to the booming demand for logic chips and high bandwidth memory for artificial intelligence applications. In contrast to semiconductors, on the other side, the automotive industry has developed at a slower pace, with the overall production of new cars stagnating compared to the same period last year. The trend towards more electric or hybrid vehicles has continued at the expense of classic combustion engines. For Comet, a lower proportion of combustion engines means that fewer components are being tested.
However, this trend will be more than compensated by the numerous opportunities related to electric vehicles, for example, battery testing. The aerospace business, on the other hand, has shown good growth. Passenger numbers have risen significantly and have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Digitalization also plays a major role in aerospace, but the penetration of new technologies, digital technologies, is slower for safety reasons.
Volumes on the security market are high, which is of course also due to the global security situation and geopolitical tensions. However, this market is also driven by governments and influenced by global politics, which can result in increased volatility. To summarize, it can be said that the semiconductor business is on a continuous recovery path. In the traditional end markets of automotive, aerospace, and security, the situation is far less uniform.
There are pockets of growth here and there, but also sticky stagnation or slowdown in other areas. While both X-ray divisions are pivoting into the semiconductor industry, it remains important for both divisions to keep focused on niche markets in the traditional industries, where growth and good margins are still possible. So how have the divisions fared thus far in 2024? Next slide, please.
So after a slow start into the year, the division PCT has finally embarked on a recovery course due to the turnaround in the semiconductor market, especially in Q2. And currently, various new design wins were achieved with the RF generator platform, Synertia. Also, the new Synertia-based RF matchbox platform was officially released at this month's SEMICON West show in the U.S. First tests and projects have been successfully initiated with selected customers.
Lastly, but very important midterm for PCT, the construction project for the group's Asia hub in Penang is well on track. The X-ray division, IXS, faced since the beginning of the year, significant headwinds through pricing pressure from mainly Asian competitors in lower value applications. We did not take part in such price competitions and focused on high margin orders. This also resulted in us turning down some orders, which had an impact on our top line.
Our CFO will talk about this in his presentation. To drive forward our market entry in advanced packaging, we are focusing on exploiting this fast-growing market. We launched our CA20 lab inspection system, which was developed exclusively for the semiconductor industry in November last year. The division is currently working on further developing CA20 into a production system, or in other words, into a system that will be integrated into a fast production line.
The feedback from customers currently qualifying the CA20 system is excellent. However, to guarantee a fast market introduction and to keep our leading position, this requires increased expenditure on continuous development, as well as strengthening the local sales, support and service network. These investments are the basis for future success, which is why we are prepared to sacrifice some margin in the short term.
The third division, IXM, recorded lower sales in the first half of 2024. This is mainly due to the fact that we had an exceptionally strong first half of 2023, in which the division still delivered on a large backlog accumulated due to supply chain disruptions during the pandemic. Without the same effect in 2024, IXM was therefore unable to achieve the same performance in terms of sales or margin in the first half of the year.
Absent of this one-time effect, IXM remains very well positioned to address the good opportunities in the semiconductor, electronics, and battery business, while continuing to exploit its very strong position as market leader for industrial X-ray components and modules. All in all, we believe we are on track in all divisions.
PCT is benefiting from the improved fundamental data in the semiconductor market and the launch of new innovative products. IXS is focusing on advanced packaging, and IXM has good growth opportunities in the battery business and in the semiconductor and the electronics industry. Let me therefore summarize.
First of all, we would like to emphasize that we are on the road to a full recovery after suffering a setback in 2023. Despite a weak start to the year, all our key figures have improved over the course of the first six months. The development in the semiconductor industry, and therefore for our PCT division, is particularly pleasing. In the X-ray segment, we see a mixed picture in the traditional markets, but overall, we can report a stable market environment. An important factor in achieving our medium-term goal is the development and market launch of new key products.
We are pleased to report that we made further progress in this area during the reporting period. To summarize, we can say that we are making good progress in all divisions, and that the improved fundamental data in the semiconductor industry makes us optimistic. After this brief overview of the business environment and the qualitative development of our divisions, I will now hand over to our Interim CFO, Nicola Rotondo, who can provide you with a more detailed explanation of the numbers at divisional level. Nicola, please.
Thank you very much, Stephan, and good morning to all, also from my side. I'm happy to guide you through our numbers. But before we start, let me briefly summarize on how I look at the first half year of 2024. On the one hand, as mentioned already by Stephan, we started the year very soft, and eventually, the Q2 developed quite nicely and did show good signs of improvement. Nevertheless, this was not enough to offset the rather low profits of the Q3 .
On the other hand, our incoming orders show the positive dynamic, with clear signals that this will continue also in the second half of the year. It's also important to say that we were able to generate, unlike in the prior year, a positive free cash flow, which helped to maintain our strong cash position....
As stated several times, we are financially able and committed to execute on our strategy, and as a result, we did further increase our staffing level in R&D. We are convinced that by doing so, we act in the best interest of Comet and all its stakeholders, be it customers, employees, and shareholders. Now let's go into the details of our financials. Let's start with sales.
We not only had a volume drop, but also currency headwinds, which resulted in a negative impact of roughly CHF 7 million, or 3% of sales. Most of the sales decline versus the prior year are coming from China and driven by PCT. This is mainly because sales in early 2023 were exceptionally high due to the trade restrictions in 2022.
However, this should not obscure the fact that China will continue to be a growth region for us in the future. This is reflected in the sequential sales development, so from the second half of the prior year to the first half of the current year. Here, the picture looks different, with sales to China further increasing by 5%. Gross profit margin showed positive development and ended higher compared to the prior year.
The lower headcount, short-time working, and shutdowns helped to reduce idle costs in the manufacturing area. This did offset the negative sales volume and product mix impact, as well as the currency headwinds. As reported, EBITDA margin is flat compared to prior year, but dropped on an adjusted basis, as we do show in the appendix.
Here, the lower sales volume and the negative currency impact was not completely offset with the lower manufacturing costs, as mentioned before. Despite the lower operating profits, net income was higher as we had positive currency translation differences, whereas last year they were negative. Finally, ROIC, as a proxy for value creation, dropped is below our WACC, and so does not cover the cost of capital. This is, of course, not meeting our aspiration to create value during all phases of a semi cycle.
The year-over-year reduction was only driven by the lower net operating profit after tax, while the average capital employed did even decrease. In fact, the decrease of the capital employed was mainly driven by a lower net working capital, which brings me now to the next slide. As said, net working capital decreased versus prior years, mainly based on lower inventory levels.
It is worth mentioning that we were able to increase the level of customer prepayments in the division IXS, despite slightly lower sales. Free cash flow performance was good. While being negative in the prior year, we were able to generate a positive free cash flow. This was based on both lower CapEx and lower working capital requirements. The rather high CapEx in the prior year was mainly driven by the site consolidation in San Jose, which we finished successfully.
We expect that CapEx will increase in the second half of this year. It will depend heavily on the start of the construction phase of our new manufacturing building in Penang, as well as placing orders for production equipment that have long lead time. Overall, we expect lower CapEx as previously guided at our full year results presentation in March.
We were able to keep still a high cash balance and do expect to further increase it till year-end. By having a high cash, cash balance and stable finance liabilities, also our net debt remains very low. With the debt factor close to zero, we have a very good value. Finally, and almost as a recurring theme, our equity and equity ratio is signaling strength and solidity.
In short, our balance sheet KPIs remained at good levels. Let's now have a look on how the divisions performed on a year-over-year basis. A positive sign in terms of good cost management is the fact that PCT's profitability increased on a year-over-year comparison, despite lower sales.
Sales drop versus last year is, on the one hand, driven by the fact that the downturn was still unfolding in H1 2023, with good sales, especially in Q1 2023, while Q1 2024 was very tough. On the other hand, the softness in Q1 2024 was mostly driven by very low sales to China compared to the last year. But on a sequential basis, so from the second half of the last year to the first half of this year, sales to China did increase by almost 30%....
Improvements in profitability come from the following factors: In PCT, the lower headcount, short time working, and shutdown helped to reduce idle costs in the manufacturing area. This, in combination with the absence of some non-recurring one-time costs in the previous year, did more than offset the negative volume impact, leading to a year-over-year profit increase.
Sales at IXS decreased slightly, but when looking at our focus market, electronics, the share of sales remained stable on a year-over-year basis. At product level, the service business contracted, while the sales of systems did even increase. So the sales drop and the additional investments in our strategic goal to enter the semi market with the CA20, did result into a negative EBITDA. Also, at IXM, sales were lower compared to the prior year.
This was mainly due to the very high backlog at the beginning of the last year, and did boost sales over proportionally in the period of the last year. Nevertheless, the share of sales resulting from our focus markets, semi, electronics, and battery, did further increase. From a product point of view, the share of new products also further increased and showed indeed a solid proof point that strategy execution is well on track.
Increased profitability compared to the prior year was driven by the sales volume growth. To close the finance section, let's go and see how our incoming order development was during the last quarter. As it stands, we are very confident that we are now seeing a change in the trend, which started to accelerate in the Q2 of the current year.
If we just compare this Q2 with the low Q3 of the last year, we see an increase of 60%, of course, mainly coming from the semiconductor market. Our full year guidance is implying a further increase in orders, and therefore sales, that will be realized in the second half of the year. We have the capacity available and are ready to execute, and for this, we now move to the outlook section. Stephan, please.
Thank you, Nicola. Let us now turn, as you said, to the outlook for our main end markets for the rest of the 2024 financial year. The prospects for the semiconductor equipment industry in 2024 are encouraging. After a difficult year in 2023, 2024 will be the year in which the industry returns to growth. Market observers currently expect growth of 3%-5% in 2024, and according to market observers as well, this positive development will accelerate further in 2025 to around 14% growth year on year.
It is expected that those segments of the semiconductor market, namely NAND flash memory and DRAM, which were most affected by overcapacity during the correction phase of the cycle, will follow the recovery in other segments in the second half year or in 2025, the latest.
This demand is primarily driven by the increasing need for memory for AI applications, in AI servers and in data centers. Due to its high exposure to NAND and DRAM, Comet will benefit disproportionately from this upturn. In the automotive sector, the slow growth will continue in 2024. Electromobility will continue to be an important driver of growth here, which offers corresponding opportunities for Comet. The aerospace industry also has good growth forecasts for the coming years.
Passenger air miles have solidly exceeded pre-pandemic levels in the first half of the year, and investment in safety infrastructure will continue to grow. Advances in security technologies, where the use of artificial intelligence and data analysis approaches opens new opportunities, will also contribute to growth. In summary, we can say that these promising prospects mean we are looking forward to a successful 2024.
We are ready to seize the opportunities that present themselves, and we will work hard to strengthen our position in the various markets. With that, I come to the last slide. We expect the recovery in the semiconductor industry to gain momentum in the second half of the year. Our optimism is based on various industry indicators. For example, we are seeing higher capacity utilization in the past.
These are currently at the level that has triggered new investment in equipment in the past. Higher average selling prices or inventories at normal levels. Also, statements made by semiconductor manufacturers regarding rising investments reinforce our view.
Nevertheless, while the upswing is increasing momentum, speed, and scale for 2024, speed and scale are still somewhat clouded on account of uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical events. In line with the recovery in the cycle, we expect a further increase in incoming orders. We are and will be ready operationally and organizationally to follow the ramp. We've done it several times before and know how to execute the playbook.
Our workforce is prepared to handle the expected growth in a timely and reliable manner. Lastly, we will continue on executing our strategic initiatives. We will press ahead with the work in Penang to ensure that we remain able to deliver when we will reach the limits of capacity at some of our production facilities.
Our PCT division will grow by gaining market share with Synertia, not only with the generator, but now also with the latest generation matchbox available, enabling us to offer our customers a one-stop solution for RF subsystems. We look forward to reporting on the market launch of our X-ray inspection fab system later this year.
The development in the first half of the year, our bottom-up analysis with the forecast for market development in the second half of the year, and the patterns of past recovery in the semiconductor cycle, allow us to confirm our guidance for the full year 2024 today. We continue to expect sales in the range of CHF 440 to 480 million, and an EBITDA margin of between 15% and 17%. Now, this concludes my remarks and presentation. I would like to open the question and answer session for our audience. Thank you.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. You will hear a tone to confirm that you have entered the queue. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Questioners on the phone are requested to use only handset. Webcast viewers may submit their questions in writing via the relative field. Anyone with a question may press star and one at this time. Our first question comes from Nigel Lavrych from Octavian. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thank you for the summary. Maybe the first question would be regarding the orders. I mean, you have shown this graph with June clearly showing an uptick. Can you maybe tell us, do you think this is sustainable? And also, what was maybe the development in July based on your conversations with OEMs?
So maybe I will pick up more the number part of it, and then we'll hand over to Stephan to talk about the qualitative aspect. We believe that this is sustainable, and actually, we have indication that this will further increase, which is basically supporting our guidance. I mean, you have seen really quite a nice improvement compared to Q1, and the indication that we have so far is that it will continue.
And I can add from my side that well on a qualitative level all the discussions we've had especially this month at the SEMICON West show confirms that the large market dynamics that we have seen now for the past quarters related to AI and HBM is now starting to spill over into NAND and DRAM especially which will obviously then continue to boost the incoming order situation on our side. So qualitatively what we hear from our customers is giving us the optimism that quarter to quarter we will be seeing increasing incoming orders. A lot of those will be actually then end up in sales revenue for this year.
Okay, thanks. And then maybe as a second question, I mean, your EBITDA margin for H1 was quite low, so you would need to have a very good H2 in order to meet even the bottom end of your guidance, which you now confirmed. So can you give us maybe further explanation on how you really expect for each of the divisions to support that in H2?
Yes. So basically, the support from the division will be first to say that all of them are going to grow. That is the plan, that IXS and AXM are going to grow into the second half. But of course, the majority of that growth will come, that is obvious from PCT. And how are we going to achieve then the needed profitability, right, to reach the guidance? I mean, we have quite a strong operational leverage, and we have seen that now in the last couple of quarters, that as soon as demand ends, especially production volume is picking up, that is really boosting our gross profit margin.
And so by keeping that pace, and we don't have, at the moment, indications that also that will not continue for Q3 and Q4, the operational leverage, these are basically the elements that will bring us to the guided EBITDA margin. So it's basically volume and operational leverage that is mainly coming from the production side here in Flamatt.
Okay, so just to confirm, you're expecting higher volumes, so let's say higher top line growth, but also EBITDA, despite systems having minus 3.5%, I believe, EBITDA margin. So this should then be positive?
So basically, what we expect is, yes, all divisions are going to improve their results compared to the prior, compared to the first half year. Second half year is coming in for all divisions higher.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Didier Scemama from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yep. Thank you so much for taking my question. Maybe a question for Stephan on the Synertia platform. If you can share with us any further design wins, how things are progressing, and maybe if you've got any update on your target of market share, you know, 5%-10% over the course of the next several years, that'd be great. And I've got a follow-up. Thank you.
Sure. Thanks for the question. So progress with Synertia continues on many levels. The pipeline is continuously filling and advancing. And, as mentioned during the presentation, since we spoke last, we have been able to win a couple of additional design wins. We are confirming at this point the 5%-10% market share for our midterm goal. Nothing has changed on that level, and we have, in general, intensified our engagement with all tier ones, as well as, I would say, by now, pretty much all tier twos.
So, again, progress is very good on all levels, and I would especially also emphasize that we had a very, very good engagement right out of the bat on the Synertia matchbox, which we released at SEMICON West.
Okay, great. Just on the CA20 product line, maybe just give us an update on where you are at qualifying at other customers. I don't know if you want to share with us any sort of revenue forecast or how much revenue you actually expect, you know, maybe this year, that would be helpful.
So we have actually passed with some of our customers all the technical qualifications for the lab machine and are in different stages of the commercial negotiations. We are, I would say, well ahead with the development of the fab machine. First prototypes will be sent out in September, as a matter of fact, and nothing stands in the way for the full launch of the fab system at SEMICON Europe this year.
We are not going to share any any projections in in terms of revenue neither for the lab or the fab system, especially for the fab system. We will definitely see that the the final qualifications will take some time and therefore it is slightly difficult to basically make a projection on on this side.
Okay. Maybe one quick question on the margin. I think the question previously of tackling that a little, but I mean, to make your numbers, you need pretty significant step up in EBITDA margin in PCT, probably in the others as well, but probably PCT being the biggest moving part. I mean, how should we think about the incremental margin, you know, in the second half on a year-over-year basis? I mean, historically, you do around, you know, 50% incremental margin. Is that the right way to think about it?
Yeah. Let me pick that up. So yes, your observation is right. I mean, the main contribution will come from PCT, and although we do not really guide precisely incremental margin as such, I would say that your assumption is not far away from what it will be.
Okay. Okay, brilliant. Thank you so much.
I'll tell you, it goes back to what Nicola said before. The operational leverage that we have on incremental volume is quite positive, and what we can share is also that, already in the first half of the year, we have seen levels of EBITDA that are required in order to reach the full year EBITDA. So given the fact that the volume is coming in, and backlog is very healthy, right now, then, all of that will lead to the outcome that we have in the full year guidance.
Yeah. Understood. Maybe, as a follow-up, I mean, you've seen some, you know... I guess your question—the question is, have you changed your view on the recovery of the NAND WFE orders? I mean, I think you said early calendar maybe late calendar 2024. Is that still the sort of way of thinking for management? Because we've seen Samsung accelerated the ramp of their Pyeongtaek fab for NAND. I think the fab utilization in NAND maybe are not at 100%, but not far. So any change to that sort of shape of recovery for NAND WFE?
No, we stick basically to the view that by the end of this year, we will start to see a very strong recovery of the NAND industry.
Okay. Thank you so much.
The next question comes from George Brown from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two, if I may. So firstly, you stated previously that you have five design wins with a single tier one customer. I'm just wondering how things are progressing with the other two tier one customers. More specifically, when do you expect to get design wins with the second tier one?
And then second question on the competitive landscape in the RF generator business. I saw Advanced Energy recently released a new generator, and even more recently, their new RF match box, the NavX, I believe. I'm just wondering, how does Synertia compare to these platforms? Thanks, guys.
Yeah. So, we commented earlier this year on the five design wins with our first tier one customer, and currently, we are in engagements with the other two. We have with those not reached a design win yet. We are, however, in deep collaboration, engagement, and qualifications. When it comes to the recent release of AE's new generator platform, as well as the even more recent release of the matching Matchbox NavX. It's hard to do the comparison really on technical level, because very little is actually known to us at this point in time.
But obviously, I was over there just a couple of weeks ago when they released it, and took a hard look at it. And the thing that is actually a positive to me, I like competition. Obviously, I'm very competitive. But what I like to see is that they are really trying to copy Synertia. Well, that means we've done something wrong when the behemoth of the industry in this area is actually following our path. So over the next quarters, if not years, we will see how we can size up on the technological level.
We still believe, and I am just reiterating what I have been saying for the past two years, I have a strong belief that we have technologically a leg up. Having said that, we, we have to be aware of the fact that, AE does not necessarily have to beat us on the technological side, because they have a very strong basis already in the industry. So in other words, we have to be technologically better in order to beat them. I hope that gives some color to your question.
Yes, indeed. Perfect. Thank you so much, guys.
The next question comes from Michael Foeth from Vontobel. Please, go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. Good morning, everyone. So, I have one question left on China. You mentioned that China was actually growing again. My question is if you can give an indication of how much the Chinese market represents for you in the first half. And also, what risks do you see going forward in terms of the dynamics that are going on there, both in terms of restriction and domestic competition? Thank you.
So I will comment on what the share of sales was in the first half year, and then hand over to Stephan for the flavors of the market. The share we have in the first half of this year for the entire group is roughly one quarter, or 25%.
In terms of the market dynamics in China, obviously, they are very active trying to further develop the entire semiconductor ecosystem, and they are also making quite some important steps forward there. There are, in our field of activity, both on the RF subsystem as well as on the X-ray side, a number of companies that crop up, certainly also benefiting from the sort of Chinese Chip Act. We do see them trying to break into our markets, but so far, in the areas where we are active, we don't look at them as a competition. They address rather the low tech area. This will change going forward, obviously.
So, I mean, being able to compete in China means you have to be better than them. Me too, you lose, right? When it comes to the geopolitical situation, I mean, with the current export restrictions, we are, I would say, not really hindered in developing business. We are sort of in the clear. How that changes going forward, obviously is a crystal ball for us.
What we do is, I mean, we have a very strong team that is kind of on the pulse for anything that has to do with trade restrictions and export restrictions. We just follow the rules and adapt accordingly. So this is the only thing we can do, and so far we've done that quite well. I hope that-
Okay, perfect.
answers the question.
Yeah, it does. Thank you very much. Maybe following on that, in terms of your outlook, would you expect your sales to China to continue to grow also into 2025?
From the current vantage point, our perspective is that we will continue to grow with our business in China, both on the X-ray as well as the RF sub-assembly side. Yes.
Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from Sebastian Vogel from UBS. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I have three questions. I would ask them one by one. The first one is with regard to PCT in the Q2 . On my guesstimate, so to say, I sense that there could be or that the growth was around, like, 50%-60% in the Q2 . Is that fair to assume? And therefore, also if the sequential growth or the sort of intra-quarter growth, is it fair to say that the June growth was the strongest compared to this average number?
Yes. So I mean, when, when we look at orders, indeed, your estimate, the growth was Q2 to Q1, is in that, in that range. And, actually, also your assumption that it started to. I mean, it started to accelerate, we have to say, already from March. We had a very weak January. February started to accelerate in March and continued with that pace, ending up with quite a high value in the month of June. So we really saw an increasing trend starting from March in the right direction.
Got it. Second question is on, on the guidance, in particular on the sales side. So, but I mean, in H1, in IXM and IXS, you had this CHF 100 million around, and you said it's around, that should be sort of flat for the second half, potentially. So assuming that would be around, like, CHF 200 million for the full year.
If I add the sort of the CHF 90 million from PCT, so I'm around, like, CHF 290 million, and that leaves me to around, like, CHF 160, CHF 170 million for PCT in the second half, which would imply that it's, like, 80% to 90% up in that regard. Does that make all sense, or is there any sort of mistake in my thought process there?
Basically, I was not clear enough when I said that, the X-ray businesses would be flat. Also there, we project to increase sales in the second half of the year, which is not usual actually for those two businesses. They have a big seasonality that goes towards the end of the year, so we are expecting also there, growth.
But at the end of the day, of course, to make the guidance, we need the anticipated growth coming from, the semiconductor market being PCT. So that will be the lion's share of the growth. That does not, change completely, your assumptions, but would factor in that we are also expecting a bit of growth for the X-ray businesses.
Got it. And the third question is, coming back to the arc generator side. If I'm not mistaken, in the beginning of the year, you were alluding to the sort of, double-digit million share that could coming out of that corner for the full year and this year, either on sales and orders. Is that still the same punchline there, or has anything changed in that regard?
So, what we can say there is that, we've sort of done our homework. The projections that we made, beginning of the year, I wouldn't revise them, but, emphasize what I actually already said at the full year and at diverse conferences, that it is, to a certain extent now, out of our control span.
Our customers are qualifying their chambers and tools with end customers, and when that qualification is through and, the market picks up, then the outcome is going to be revenue on Synertia. So, we're still kinda keeping our fingers crossed that, the qualification at the end customers, in the fab, as well as the pickup, hopefully on such tools, will yield good revenue this year.
Understood. And if I may slip in one follow-up question, with regard to the C-level management side of things, when do we see their final conclusion or final situation?
Well, I was fearing that question to pop up, but listen, the process is ongoing. As you know, we had last year sort of a broken search and decided, okay, let's redo. And that second search is now converging, and I hope that over the course of the next, let's be cautious, months, we will be able to declare a final winner.
Got it. Many thanks.
... You, you're welcome.
The next question comes from Michael Inauen from ZKB. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. A couple of questions on IXS. You made a loss there on EBITDA level because of investments that you have done. I mean, I read R&D, sales, service, infrastructure. So how much of these costs are sticking? So i.e., are fixed costs actually going forward, and have you done this now a bit earlier than expected?
In other words, what gives you the confidence to really build up this whole infrastructure right now? That would be the first question on the cost side of IXS. And then on the CA20 specifically, can you give us just a feeling, if you are designed into the fab, for example, how many such machines are in a fab? What's the, I mean, I know we don't have a price list for it, but what, what are you trying to charge for it?
Okay. I'll answer the last question last. So yes, we have increased investments into IXS, especially on the R&D, but then the entire support ecosystem side, so the sales engineering, application engineering, and service organization side, especially in Asia, where our sensitive customers sit. We've not done infrastructure investments per se, so I would say that these costs are to a certain extent temporary or flexible.
Mm.
Will they remain? I, I believe, going forward, however, on the different sides, so once we start developing, revenue on the CA20 platform, the R&D investment levels will remain high because we will get on a trajectory that is going to be dictated in terms of speed and scale by this ecosystem of 3D advanced packaging. Now, why did we do these investments? Because we are very optimistic about the potential outcome of this strategic initiative at IXS.
And having said that, we do believe that X-ray, both in 2D as well as in 3D, in the fab environment, is going to see very healthy growth forward. How many machines will there be in a fab? Difficult to say. This is part of sort of the entire ecosystem and business developing, development happening.
In terms of the margins or the sales prices, all I can say is what I've said before, we are, in terms of functionality, obviously, but also in terms of the prices, the value that we deliver with those functionality, in a different league than what we have seen so far in automotive and in aerospace, so in our legacy business. So there is much more value to grab and translate into margin for us in this business.
So, I assume you want to charge a couple of million CHF per machine. Is that fair to say? Lower single-digit.
So look, nice try, Michael.
Yeah, sorry.
I'm not gonna comment on that. I will leave you in this belief, and hopefully, in due course, you can plausibilize that number, and then we'll have probably a more detailed discussion on that. But right now, I think the situation is critical in the sense that there are obviously a lot of competitors trying to grab a part of that pie, and so we will not disclose any information that could be of any help to them, be it tactically or strategically. So I will remain obscure. Apologies for that.
Yeah, no, no worries, no worries. We can discuss that next time when there are more information. Maybe just on the design, Synertia design wins, and I was just wondering, you know, your discussions with the other two tier one suppliers, is there a better chance to get the RF generator qualified with them once or actually now that you have the Gen 3 match also out? Is there, I mean, there is a connection between the products, I know that, but does it help you in the discussions with the other tier one clients? Would they be willing to probably look at both at the same time?
That's a good question, and we do believe so. We always believed that would be the case, and the first indications that we have now, it is confirming that belief, the prior belief, that the combo, the combination of both, are what is going to, you know, increase the interest even more.
Yeah, which makes sense, and thanks. Maybe just the last one on the guidance, too. I mean, we had the discussion now on how confident you are with your guidance in general, mostly on the margin side, but when we look at the sales, I mean, CHF 440 to 480 million is still pretty broad. To get to CHF 440 million, you would need around CHF 250 million, which is already a pretty good H2, actually.
But to get to CHF 480 million, is that really realistic? I mean, you would need to have one of the best H2s that you ever had in history. Or in other words, what would need to happen to get to the upper end? Just on the revenues.
Maybe to start with, I mean, we have quite a decently high backlog already in our books, and most of that will convert already this year. So from that point of view, that makes us quite confident that in combination with increasing orders that are needed, but we are very confident that this trend that we have seen in Q2 will continue. So these two elements, high backlog and increasing trend in orders, is really making us very confident that we will end up in that range that we have guided.
And, you know, during the second half of the year, I would say latest than at the trading update, of course, we will be able to bit narrow that, that range further down. But, at this moment, basically, the outlook is that it is possible, also to end up the higher end.
Okay, I understand that. Thank you very much, and I wish you all a great day.
Thank you.
We have a follow-up question from Didier Scemama from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you for taking my question. Maybe one question on the balance sheet. I think you've got a target of 20% of working cap in sales or sales in working cap, I should say. I think well above that. And obviously, your level of inventories are suggesting that you're quite confident about your second half revenue growth. But when do you think you could sort of get back to 20% of sales in working cap? Is that 2026 or can that happen in 2025? And I've got a quick follow-up as well. Thank you.
Yes. So related to our guidance that we gave at the Capital Market Day, what our target level is for net working capital, that is indeed the 20% that we are aiming to. But at that same Capital Market Day , we also said that we are not going to see this level already in the year 2024. So what we see now is basically within of what we expected and within what we communicated. Now, to your question, when is that assumed to come down? I mean, our projection is that we are going to see improvement already in the next year, going into that direction.
Okay. Maybe a clarification: I think you mentioned pricing pressure earlier in your prepared comments. I'm not sure I understood what part of the business was impacted by pricing pressure. If you could just repeat that, it would be helpful. Thank you.
So we see in general pricing pressure in the X-ray side of the business, be it on systems, more on the, let's say, the less complex systems, entry-level systems, and then also on less complex X-ray modules. So there is quite considerable pricing pressure, and this is in the legacy markets of the X-ray side of the business, where we have decided that we're not gonna compete on price, but rather walk away from such deals.
Okay, understood. Thank you.
Also, the next question is a follow-up from Sebastian Vogel from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah, a quick, small follow-up on the CapEx side of things. If I'm mistaken, you entered the year with quite an active CapEx guidance. H1 was a bit a slow start into that one. I was wondering if you still see this sort of implied acceleration for the second half, or if you think about a bit of a smaller number essentially then?
Yeah, I mean, we are going to see an acceleration as compared to the first half. That was rather on the low side, but we will not end up at those values that we have implied, guided at the full year presentation back in March.
So we are going to end lower compared to what we have guided, but of course, we are going to see an acceleration still, really driven by our new sites in, and on IT-related equipment that we are going to already pre-order for those having long lead time items. But, yeah, we will not reach those levels that we guided in the beginning of the year. That is for sure.
That means some sort of 6% to 7% of sales as a starting point. Is that fair to assume?
Yeah, that is already on the high side, I would think.
Got it. Many thanks.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question over the phone. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Steiner for the quick written question from the webcast. Please, you may proceed.
Thank you. Thank you, Sandra. We have received several questions, and in the interest of time, we cannot answer all them now in the conference, but we will get back to you, in written format later. One question comes from Thoron Lande, and he said that at the last Capital Market Day , we mentioned the goal to become more resilient on profitability. Now we are back at 7% or 8% at lower sales. Where are you in this process to increase resilience, and what else needs to be done? What would be a satisfactory EBITDA margin during a downturn? So that's the question from Thoron. Who wants to take it?
So, I mean, in, in terms of, resilience, when we look at our P&L, especially in downturns, what we have to work on is to flexibilize our costs. So we have rather high fixed and complexity costs, and, for that reason, we are, among other things, now expanding in Penang, where we will be able to consolidate a lot of the activities in a best cost environment. That is one of the activities that we're doing in order to become much more resilient going forward.
There are plenty of other activities that we do in this direction, but I'm not gonna go directly into the details there, but rather hand over to Nicola to give a bit of color to the question of what is the EBITDA or the return on capital employed that we would like to achieve through a cycle.
Exactly. So basically, indeed, starting with the return on capital employed, as already also mentioned in, in this feature, I mean, our ambition is that during all cycles of, the semi market, we want to earn more than our cost of capital, so having a ROCE that is above 9%. That implies that during a downturn, we should aim for roughly an EBITDA margin that is around 20%, and that is basically what we are aiming for. As you know, we have anticipated the, the next piece of the cycle being in 2027. So if in 2028 we are entering into a downturn phase, this is what we would like to achieve at that point in time.
And beyond of what Stephan said, related to the activities that we are going to look at and initiate to become more resilient, I mean, what will be different compared to the previous downturn is that we will have a manufacturing base, an assembling base, in Penang, which is compared to where we used to be in San Jose for match fab assembling, particularly, from a cost point of view, much more attractive. So already that should help us basically to lower our fixed cost base, and so improving our downturn profitability only with that move, beyond of what the other activities will be that we are going to initiate.
Thank you, Stephan and Nicola, and the last question I have here on the list is from Serge Rotzer, from Lombard Odier, who asks if we can say something about lead times in PCT.
So given the fact that we have a healthy inventory level, and we have already started to reestablish the organizational structure ahead of the ramp, the lead times are within the expectations of our customers.
Okay, thank you. That was the last question we could take in the conference, so therefore, I think we can conclude here. We would like to thank you for taking the time to listen to our presentation and for your interest in Comet. Should you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact our IR team. Thank you very much, and goodbye. Have a nice day.
Thank you. Goodbye.
Thank you. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.