Thank you very much and good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to the UBS session. I'm absolutely delighted to welcome Ralph Hamers, the CEO of UBS. Thank you very much for joining us today. This session is gonna, I think we're gonna probably do about half an hour of the fireside chat, and then we're gonna open to questions, so please get ready. Okay. Now, Ralph, on the, let's you know, big discussions throughout the entire yesterday and of course today are the repercussions of the kind of Russian invasion on Ukraine.
Yeah.
Let's start with that. Of course, you know, you have had your kind of strategic update not so long ago. The world looked very different. How do you assess, I suppose, first exposure of UBS, but also the kind of the primary and secondary effects that you're watching, maybe let's start with the markets.
Sure. Yeah, let's sort of first start by addressing this horrible war, I guess, that we as UBS condemn.
Yeah.
We condemn the invasion. I think our thoughts are certainly with the victims of this war and also with the ones who suffer in this humanitarian crisis, right? We're focusing a lot on supporting that through our UBS Optimus Foundation, where we have grossed more than $10 million already and more to come. I think that's kind of what is the least we can do, right?
Yeah.
Now, of course, as a bank, you also look at, you know, what is your direct exposure, and we've come out with our direct exposure. As you have seen, that is fairly limited.
Yeah.
The activities that we have are all geared towards reducing risk for our clients.
Yeah
Reducing our own risk. We haven't engaged in any new business since even before the war because we saw the tensions coming. We are not doing new business. We are de-risking ourselves and facilitating our clients also to de-risk, and that's what we're focusing on there. You know, maybe to complete the picture there, and it may be interesting to discuss later as well, you know, there's many sanctions coming out, and for us it is very important that we carefully follow up on those sanctions, make sure that we comply with them in a careful way, in order to well make sure that they have the effect that they're supposed to have there.
Now turning into the business, I think what you've seen is that the way we deal with our clients, literally we give daily updates now, because it is so intense what is happening. It is on one side intense in terms of what comes out of Ukraine, but also the effect that it has on, you know, political tensions and with that maybe also economic impact. That is not limited to that area. That is basically globally, right? Our advice to clients was already and is to continue to diversify. That's an important aspect there. In the first two months of this year, we saw still very good client activity, specifically in the U.S.
Asia was already, and you saw that, towards the end of last year, a little bit sidelining, in terms of activity. That's basically what you hear from most. That was the same in the first two months. The U.S. clients are also sidelining basically at the moment, just, you know, in a bit of a wait and see pattern.
Yeah.
If you then translate that into basically the performance, clearly on the recurring fee side, given the fact that the markets are lower, you see lower recurring fees at least coming through now. In the first two months, that was still good. The same for asset management and wealth management. Lower performance fees on the asset management side as well. Lower transaction fees coming through as well because of the sidelining of investments at this moment and the wait and see pattern that our clients have. However, still all solid in our view. Still solid in the first two months. Net new fee generating assets coming through in the first two months of this year. Clearly, you know, March is March.
Can't give you any picture there because it's happening right now. Then for the markets business, this is quite positive, given the immense volumes coming through the system all the time, and the rotation happening in the market with investors changing the composition of their investment base. Yeah, pluses and minuses across the businesses that we run. The Swiss business doing really well.
Yeah, Ralph, let's pick up on that sanctions and kind of responding to this and the kind of just the unprecedented levels of what was happening, of course, you know, in Europe, in the U.K., in the U.S., from the perspective of new sanctions being enacted and how you deal with this from an operational perspective, you know, given the globality of your business.
Yeah, I think it's an operational challenge really. New sanctions coming literally every day. New names added to lists every day. Pretty general sanctions if it comes to people with Russian passports. That's on one side.
Mm-hmm.
More specific sanctions on institutions, or on clearing or payments. I think they lead to operational risk as well, right? So y ou have the sanctions themselves, and, as I said, you know, for us it is to err on the side of caution. Be very careful as to how we go about implementing them, making sure that we comply, and they have their effect. On the other side, they do create some operational challenges, but, yeah, we're managing that every day.
Yeah.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah. Let's kind of rewind back to the strategy.
Sure.
To the kind of February announcements. Of course, one thing that came through kind of very clearly was the kind of one UBS across regions, a kind of global delivery to clients. You kind of almost refuse to talk about your business in the business silos. Which is quite unusual. Could you kind of give us more kind of color on how you're thinking about that kind of very global business across all that you do?
Yeah. No, I mean, hey, the business divisions are there, right? That's how we manage the business. I think when we started as the top team looking at what do we do well, and where do we see additional opportunities, can we approach UBS in a more holistic way? Can we basically generate opportunities by that approach? So h ow can we create one UBS vis-à-vis the client, and how can we recognize that client playing different roles with us, right? And the only way to do that is by not necessarily looking at the business divisions, where we do execute our strategies, right? That's not the point. The question is what is your commercial approach to it?
Yeah. Yeah.
We felt that there was a real opportunity there.
Mm-hmm
On top of the business divisions, look at a different approach, recognize our strength. As a consequence of that, we changed the KPIs of the top team already last year. We decided to focus more on a particular segment where you have quite some cross-divisional activities, which is the Global Family and Institutional Wealth segment which we came out with last month, as well as how we can kind of cater for that segment even better. Just to give you an example, I was in an IPO pitch with a client just three weeks ago. The client was actually family owned.
Mm-hmm.
Partially private equity owned. I was there with our investment banking professionals. You see that clearly. I mean, we have the capabilities to do that. That is what we do just as well as any other bank. Where we can differentiate vis-à-vis a client like that is that we have quite some distribution capabilities into the wealth segment. Also recognizing the fact that on the other side of the table is a wealthy family office, right? It's that connection in a deal that is primarily an investment banking deal, but that wealth connection there on both sides that brings a differentiating perspective to what we are to offer there. That is just one of the examples where I actually also play. If you then kind of take a step back from that, you basically see that we're basically we have clients as UBS and not per business division.
Mm-hmm.
We have capabilities as UBS and not per business division. It is for us now to look at the opportunity to match the right capabilities with these clients but also recognize that these clients play different roles with us. Because just to go back to that example, a client like that, or like an entrepreneurial client selling his business, is an investment opportunity for other wealthy families.
Yeah.
After that, this person will want to have the same opportunity. He plays different roles. He's an investment opportunity, but he's also an investor for us.
Yeah.
Yeah? Recognizing those two roles makes us believe that, you know, we have an ecosystem to develop here, because you have to recognize the different roles that these clients can play. In order to really support then these clients to the max of our abilities, we clearly have our own capabilities, like, you know, the connection between the wealth business and the asset management business in the U.S., for example. Through our SMA offering, which by the end of last year was at $127 billion of assets under management. But you know, also in the alternative space, it is a very powerful play to do. Clearly, most of these wealthy clients are more and more looking at the alternative space as connecting to the alternative players.
Just with one player, we did $20 billion over 24 months. We six weeks ago, admittedly before the war, did $1 billion of placement in an alternative fund within five days. That shows you the power of UBS as being the largest global marketplace for private money. And i f you then start looking at our business, not like a business division.
Mm-hmm
Organized business, but as the largest global marketplace for private markets.
Mm-hmm
It's a different story.
Yeah.
You start thinking about different opportunities, and then you have to manage it to a certain extent in a different way. Clearly, the capabilities need to be professional, and therefore you keep those in the business divisions.
Yes. Just to follow up on this, I mean you've talked about the key KPIs for your top management already.
Yep
Kind of reflecting the view. How does it trickle down?
In the same way. The first year was just with the top team.
Mm-hmm.
This year we've brought that to two levels below the top team.
Yeah. Okay
To ensure that part of their Key Performance Indicators are linked to the success of the whole and not to the success of that individual department or that business division per se.
Yeah. Okay, you know, let's continue on the more strategic front because of course, you know, 2021 was a kind of remarkable year for you. You closed it, you know, with a very strong momentum. Of course, you know, notwithstanding what's happening now, kind of near term volatility. When you kind of look a little bit kind of forward, where's that momentum coming for you? Because you've also, you know, you've put out kind of targets out there as well, of course, you know, higher returns, growth targets, commercial targets. More kind of structurally, where do you see those?
Well, I mean, clearly the strategy is built not on data that are only valid for a quarter, right? When we developed the strategy, we really looked at the starting point of our strength, which is the wealth franchise. We looked at how is the wealth revenue pool developing globally. If you look at that, clearly you see that it develops the fastest in the U.S. and Asia. Within Asia, also a particular growth in China, but Asia as a whole as well. The U.S. is the largest revenue pool as we speak, and the largest wealth pool as we speak. With the growth in Asia will kind of be getting closer to that. That's one fact.
Mm-hmm.
It's just a fact, and therefore, the focus on regions for us, in terms of the investments going into the U.S. and Asia. If you then take a second level of trends, as to okay, so where is that wealth being created? We see that as being created in the entrepreneurial space in the new economy space.
Yeah.
We also see a very important trend that women-controlled wealth is growing 1.5 times faster than men-controlled wealth. If you then peel it off to an even lower layer, level, you see that there's a massive transfer of wealth. $50 trillion of wealth will actually move from one generation to the next generation in the next 15-17 years. It's $50 trillion of wealth passing from one generation to the others, which are all moments where you have to connect.
Mm-hmm.
Which is also a moment to recognize that the next generation may want to be dealing with us as an institution in a different way from the way we have done it before, right? Maybe as a last trend, and you all recognize it as well, is a big trend into alternative and the sustainability space. If you just look at all those trends, and these are again, not trends for a quarter, also not for a year, but really for at least five years if it comes to growth, and at least a decade if it comes to some of the other trends, then you know where to invest and how to prioritize. That's where we are pretty confident that the position that we already have.
Mm-hmm
With this more focused investment and this more focused development of value propositions, that we can actually continue to keep that momentum. Of course, there will be quarters where the market is a little bit volatile and all of that, but you have to look through that, because otherwise don't call it a strategy.
Strategy. That's right. Let's pick up on a couple of things more geographically. Let's start with China. You've kind of mentioned APAC a little bit. You've been in the region for a very long time and kind of through and through various policy changes, and of course, with the latest one being, of course, the drive for the common prosperity. How do you assess your business in China at the moment, and how do you also assess your long-term investment in the country as well? Maybe kind of more in general, you know, how do you feel positioned to effectively succeed in APAC from a perspective of wealth from the perspective of the investment bank?
Yeah. Look, as you said, so we have been in the region for 60 years and t his is a region that, you know, just by, in terms of demographics, you can kind of predict what is going to happen, right?
Yeah.
It's not very difficult that this is a region to invest over time. With investing in a region like that, you also have to kind of accept the fact that it will not always be as predictable. Again, you know, you will have your dips and also your moments of acceleration. That goes for the whole region, but it also specifically goes for China with policy changes as well.
Yeah.
Now focusing on China then specifically, I think we're really well set up for benefiting from further growth, further activity. We can all have a debate as to what is happening right now, but again, this is about strategy. Clearly you can also, you know, temporarily invest a little bit less or a little bit more whatsoever. Strategically, you know, we are the leading international investment bank on the ground.
Yeah.
Onshore. We are the number one in cash equities offshore. We're the top three in banking offshore as well for the Greater China area. If you then look at the other two businesses that we have, asset management and wealth management, and then you look at the change in policy in China, the common prosperity.
Yeah.
That change comes with some tensions, some hiccups, and all of that. If you really look at that change, you can actually expect the wealth pyramid to develop into a wealth oval. The build-up of wealth is very concentrated in the top, and we all know that, and that's why this policy change comes with what it comes with. That's what we read in the paper. In the end, if it becomes more and more of an oval, it becomes a much more interesting proposition for a player like ourselves for both wealth management and asset management. It also becomes a much more interesting proposition from a social stability perspective, because the common prosperity will ensure that some of the polarization that we see if you don't have a common prosperity, and we see such in some of the countries in the West already.
Yeah
That you don't want to run into that risk, and I understand that policy. I actually think that policy is a tailwind for our strategy.
Mm-hmm.
But it will come with some, yeah, some hiccups so now and then.
Yeah. No, no, absolutely. Now, on Americas. You know, we've talked about a couple of things around U.S. Of course, you know, the most headline grabbing was, of course, your Wealthfront acquisition.
Sure.
How, you know, can you just kind of remind us and give us a kind of context of rationale, but also, how does this impact, maybe longer term, your FA business?
Let's first go back to the strategy, and I just indicated how important the U.S. as a market is. If you wanna be, like ourselves, the largest private market, right?
Mm-hmm.
In the world, you have to be tapping into the largest wealth pool in the world as well, with growth numbers that are also beyond the average in the world. So t hat's why we want to continue to invest in the U.S. I think the team over the last couple of years has done a really good job with grabbing that momentum to support the FA distribution channel as well. You've seen our cost income ratio going down there as well, real true market momentum there as well. The next step is okay, so again, based on some of these trends, okay, so how will this market develop?
Mm-hmm.
How are we then best positioned to benefit from that trend? Clearly, the financial advisor business will continue to be really important. We're investing a lot in supporting our financial advisors to be as effective and as productive as possible in the way they deal with their clients. We also see that the segment of what we call the reactives w hich is a segment that generally represents a household wealth of anywhere between $250,000-$2 million is one that is not necessarily best serviced through a financial advisor network. We also see that in the next generation, there is more and more clients that want to have a combination of being able to do it themselves-
Yeah
with some confirmation from an advisor as well. That's where we had our plan developed to tap into that opportunity, which is what we call the digitally customized value proposition. We see that as a big opportunity there. It's between $6 trillion and $8 trillion of wealth right now already in that market, in that segment, so it's a big opportunity. It's an opportunity that we think from a behavioral perspective will grow. Therefore, we have plans for that. The Wealthfront opportunity came by, and in my discussions with the team there, and what they're doing.
Mm-hmm
They actually help us accelerate our plans by about three years. They have excellent engineers. They have a real good sense for digital user experience when it comes to the wealth business. They're a real wealth player. They're not a broker. They're not like a direct broker. They are a wealth player. That's what they believe in, long-term wealth. They are catering for clients that we would characterize as the innovators, the professionals, the ones that truly only want to do and interact digitally. That is the basis for the additional value proposition that I just explained, where we see there is additional growth perspective. We have the opportunity that we already have two main clients in the workplace wealth space which is basically the business that we do in terms of, you know, stock option management.
Yeah
Stock option plans, as well as pension plans that at a liquidity event we currently don't have a good value proposition for to keep those assets under management with us. It's that combination that makes this such an interesting opportunity for us. Therefore, you know, both from their side, as from our side, we felt this was a good match. Clearly, the transaction has to close.
Of course.
We're working on that. Strategically, it fits and it will accelerate our plans by about three years in my view.
Perfect. Alain, I have one more question on the U.S., and then I'll turn to the audience. It was another, you know, quite extraordinary two years in the business in the U.S., were effectively two things. Of course, your SMA-
Yep
business and your loan growth. How do you think about it going forward? You know, can that momentum be continued? Where do you see opportunities? You know, we've talked about on the wealth side. We've talked about mortgages, some Lombard lending, some structured lending. How do you see it going forward on that lending side, to start?
Yeah. Well, I mean, 'cause clearly, you know, I was just kind of passing the compliments to my team there for the last 2-3 years to really turn around part of the business and showing the opportunity there. One way they did it, is also to developing some of these banking products.
Yeah.
Right?
Yeah.
That's where you saw the lending growth coming from. There's a couple of interesting aspects to that. The first one is that, just in terms of numbers, we manage about 50% of the wealth of our clients, but only 15% of their liabilities. So basically, just within our current client base, we have quite an opportunity there to do more on the lending front, right? That's one. Second, there will be growth in that market. As I just said, you know, the wealth market will grow, therefore, the leverage on the wealth, will grow as well. That's an opportunity itself. We have to invest in order to be able to benefit from that opportunity. That's why we're investing in developing more banking services, digitally supported, but through the financial advisor.
Because in the end, the financial advisor has that relationship with those clients, and it generates quite a good opportunity to do more lending, but also to get more deposits in. Which again, then makes us less dependent on just invested assets or assets under management, and gives us some more exposure to a balance sheet that produces interest income as well.
Mm-hmm.
That is from a high-level UBS perspective industry. From a client intimacy perspective, for those financial advisors to be able to offer more banking products in terms of cash management and lending, it actually ties the relationship more with them. That's why we're supporting it there. You know, just going by the numbers, we see that, and again, you know, one quarter could be lower than the other quarter, but if you just look at how the market is developing and if you then look at our low penetration in that market, because the actual market penetration is only 5%. But even within the current client base that we only have 15% of their liabilities, whereas we have 50% of their assets, you see the opportunity there.
Literally in-house.
Sorry?
In-house very much.
Exactly.
Um.
In-house already a large opportunity, so you don't even have to compete out there to go after new clients. Just yeah.
All right. Can I just turn to the audience? Do we have any questions? Fermino, right here on the second bench, please.
Just a question on the, I mean, actually two ESG questions. One on your Russian disclosure. I mean, in terms of the individuals that have been sanctioned. I mean, you mentioned that it's quite seamless. My question is, I mean, did you go to like second derivatives in the sense, you know, companies that are controlled by them, you know, that you can have-
Yeah
You know, I don't know, coded accounts. I guess my concern is that, you know, if then it's discovered that actually they have UBS accounts, I mean, you know, how convinced are you that actually the disclosure is the right one? Because it seems quite low, you know, for the number of individuals that have been sanctioned.
We have the direct Russia exposure that we disclosed, and then the number of individual sanctions. Yeah, that is changing by the day because the new sanctions are coming out. That was at the moment of disclosure. We are working with our clients, including Russian clients, to see how to manage their business and how to de-risk their own situation. I can't give a further update on the number of sanctioned clients because that literally changes every day. New lists come out every night. We just go through the list and we match it against. In principle, every Russian person with a Russian passport is semi-sanctioned. That you realize that, right?
In U.K., EU, and Switzerland. Yeah?
That's what I'm trying to understand the mechanics of that. I mean, do you have then to disclose to the authorities? Do you freeze any business with those clients? You know, what are the mechanics? Because my concern.
Yeah, a sanction is generally freezing the activities and clearly reporting the activities to the authorities as well, like every sanction to the authorities. Then depending on how the authorities want to deal with that situation, either there will be a solution at a certain moment in time or it will continue to be frozen. I mean, it's no different from Iran or some other exposures that some of the banks have, right?
Yeah. That's why I'm asking the question. I mean, we saw BNP Paribas, you know, big sanctions, you know, then it was discovered that there was transactions, there was things, and particularly U.S. authorities were quite heavy, you know, on those. So what I'm trying to assess is that,
That was not about complying with the sanctions. Complying with the sanctions is what we do. If you don't comply with sanctions, you run the risk of being fined, right? Therefore, what I said is that, you know, we take the sanctions very carefully. I mean, as I said, you know, with the fact that the sanctions come out, like, every day, and some are less clear in the way they are described as others. Then you have the U.S. sanctions, the U.K. sanctions, the EU sanctions, and the Swiss sanctions. Basically, we take the most conservative perspective there to ensure that we comply with sanctions.
That is one thing, and that is to ensure that, you know, we deal with in an effective way with sanctions on one side, and that you also kind of manage the risk of being fined in a couple of years when people come back and say, "Well, you know, we have looked at how you interpreted these ones." That's why everybody, I guess, errs on the side of conservatism there. Once sanctioned, the situation initially is frozen until it affects a running business that maybe the authorities may not want to impact. I mean, you know the ones from the paper, so it's. The look-through is important as well.
Yeah. Okay. Thanks for that. Any other questions? Vicky, just the lady in the eighth row.
Hi. Can I go back to your U.S. operations, and how do you feel about the scale you have there, and what is your competitive advantage versus the U.S. peers?
Yeah. I'm quite happy with our scale. I'm even happier with our opportunity and our brand in the U.S. and maybe to complete the picture, I'm even more happy with the momentum that we have. As I said, you know, the team has done a really good job over the last couple of years to move the business into a more productive business, a more efficient business, and a business that is really supporting the financial advisors in terms of being able to cater for wealthier clients and with additional product. I think that that's one part of it.
In terms of dealing with the scale specifically on the financial advisor side, you know that we have a joint venture with Broadridge in developing a platform which is particularly developed for financial advisors that in the end can also be shared with other networks of financial advisors. That rather than trying to improve the scale just by what you can influence, that you actually have the scale come through by having third parties on the same platform. That is about the financial advisor part.
In terms of the overall scale, you see that, connecting again here, the investment banking business as well as the asset management business, that shows that you can actually create additional value propositions, and with that, offerings like the separately managed accounts, that are very popular with our clientele, through which you can further grow as well. From many perspectives, I think we are in a good shape. Clearly, we will continue to invest to improve scale, but it's not like we are subscale to the extent that we don't see this as an interesting future.
On the contrary, again, we have the momentum, we have the brand, and we have a real commercial momentum, but also an internal momentum.
Thanks very much. Do we have any more questions for now? Alicia, please.
I guess my question is a bit more macro-related. So obviously, the U.S. dollar has been weaponized in certain ways, you know. I mean, do you see from your clients in Asia different reaction to I mean, how do they see their wealth, you know, managed? I mean, do they care by the currency where it sits, by the geography where it sits? Because, I mean, Russia, dealing with Russia is probably easier for you 'cause you've dealt for a while. You know, if ever anything happens to China, God forbid us, you know, I mean, not sure how you deal with that. How do you assess that risk, basically?
Well, I mean, to come back to maybe on the last part of your question there. I do think that the reaction of the West in terms of the fact that the West has been so united on both economic sanctions as well as on the military side, right? Not to react in a military way, but being very united there. I think that is a very good signal to ensure that we avoid wars in the future. I think that's where I derive a lot of comfort from what has happened and the reaction that the West has shown.
I think that is a signal to the rest of the world as well, that, you know, we should try to sort our issues in a diplomatic way, not in a military way. Then you see that economic sanctions can be incredibly powerful. For our Asian clients, specifically, Asian clients to a large extent are still Asian-focused, right, because they also see the demographics, they also see the development of the middle class as the biggest opportunity for many of the entrepreneurial investments they wanna do. Asset, you know, diversification is always interesting. But they have been sidelining most of their investments already for the last couple of months.
I guess when some of this tension is over, you will see them coming back into the market in all directions.
Thanks very much. Do we have any other questions? Okay. We're probably gonna have an opportunity in a couple of minutes. Actually I wanted to follow up on Vicky's question about scale.
Of course.
Because of course we talk about scale in various, you know, in various, dimensions. When you think about your positioning, your competitive positioning and consolidation, you're also, you know, very capital generative. It's quite a luxurious position to be in. You know, so first internally, can you generate kind of global savings versus local costs? Because that's really the reality of some of our business. Two, you know, consolidation-wise, you know, where would you potentially see opportunities?
Yeah. I mean this really depends on the different businesses that we have, right? Clearly in the investment bank, in the market side, I mean, that's a global business. You know, and therefore you need to have global scale. We're very focused on investing in digital propositions in the market side. And we have done so for a while. We've done so successfully for a while as well. In the investment banking business, particularly on the market side, global scale is important. We're top five, four player, as you know, on in the equity space, top three in the foreign exchange space. We have the scale where we need to have it in what we would call investment banking capabilities.
In the other businesses, honestly, even if you want to be a digital player, I do think that specifically digital players, increasingly so, still need to have first local scale to build a value proposition that is successful and over time value creating. That's why digital propositions generally in the world come from either China or the U.S., because these are very large markets, right? Whether it's the banking business or whether it is any other business, I mean, that's where they originate because digital propositions need quite some investment, need quite some volume to create scale. And therefore from a pure digital proposition perspective, you can expect us to look at more the local component of scale.
We have a business like the wealth management business, which is a bit of a mix, right? You have the global scale you're seeking in, you know, the CIO advice, the scale in order to be able to be competitive on the placement side, to be attractive for alternative players to link into our platform. That's why we have $4.6 trillion of invested assets globally. There is just no other party that has that globally to this extent into the wealth space, right? We have the scale there. Even there, to a certain extent that global scale is important. If you wanna play more locally, sometimes because of local regulations, local tax laws, whatsoever, you have to invest locally, and then local scale also becomes an important part.
You have to make the judgment as to whether some of that add-on product and service beyond the cross-border business that we do in the wealth is worth its while. That's where we came out with conclusions on the Austrian business and the Spanish business. That basically, it was not worth our while. We were not the best owner for that business to develop it to the next stage. You have to decide to sell it.
So y ou can expect us to continue to look at our portfolio from a perspective of where can we maybe sell activities because we don't see the scale happening there. You can also expect us to continue to look at bolt-on acquisitions where we feel we can actually accelerate some of the businesses, and also accelerate the scale that we need for the businesses. Always, always explainable in view of our strategy. We'll be very consistent here.
On the consolidation front? You thought you were gonna avoid that one, did you?
On the consolidation front, I mean, just look at, I don't think there is a player like ourselves that you could see as a consolidation player. Again, you know, every player that one could look at as a consolidation player, you would always have to look at the specific activities of that player, whether that would actually help us in view of our strategy.
Mm-hmm.
Because, you know, the strategy is the strategy, and the strategy is developed on the back of those trends that I was just explaining.
Yes.
We're not moving away from that. Yeah, even a consolidation play would be more in a specific market then.
Yes, yes
To create maybe more local scale within that or to local capabilities to benefit from the opportunity that we see.
Okay.
To reap the opportunity that we see.
Loud and clear.
Yeah.
Loud and clear. The last kind of more, you know, macro question, of course, translating into the operations is, of course, you know, we are facing a kind of increased inflationary pressures, which of course are gonna come through on the cost side in kind of v arious, you know, in various formats, over particularly kind of near, nearer term. How do you see your costs developing? You know, there's been this kind of disciplined cost control over the last two years. You know, where are kind of potential risks? How do you see that side?
Yeah. That's a very good one. First, as I said, you know, about the first thing I did is just to look at the cost opportunity that we have. Right? In terms of simplifying the way we run the business, making the organization more agile, put some delayering perspectives there as well. Look at our footprint as well. That constitutes that $1 billion program that we launched basically two, three months after I became CEO. Which is a very important program for two perspectives. First, it is supporting the fact that I think that in order to be successful in executing our strategy, we have to be more agile and nimble.
Mm-hmm.
The other side, it actually helps us to create the opportunity to invest more where we feel we can create the value.
Yeah.
That $1 billion. Now clearly, you know, just going back then to your question, we also see some inflation coming through. Right? We see tension in the labor markets in the U.S. in banking.
Yeah.
Some in Asia as well. Again, we do feel that next to that, we do have quite some programs that can offset that pressure by investing in further efficiencies, but also just saving cost, that will not impact the guidance that we have given.
Mm-hmm.
That we feel we can manage our cost base within 2%, before foreign exchange.
Variables.
Yeah. Litigation.
Yeah. All right. Perfect. Thank you. I suppose we probably have a-
The other question there.
Yes. Have a space for one question.
Thank you very much. Could you give us a comment on how you have navigated the first two months of the year and the volatility we have seen in the market in the investment bank? Also how you see the trends in your equities business, and particularly prime brokerage. Have you seen any market share gains over the past year?
Market what?
Market share gains.
I see. Well, some are retracting completely, right? Overall, the ones who remain in the business, they gain. We have been on the back of also our experience, Archegos, being very clear as to with what kind of parties we want to do business. Therefore, we have exited some, but we have also onboarded several that we feel represent the quality of clients and counterparties that we want to do prime brokerage with. Overall, that's a growing business for us. The financing business is a growing business for us. Going back to your other question, actually the first two months and actually the third month as well from a markets perspective has been very constructive.
You know, the third month regrettably for something that nobody wishes, which is basically the war and the market reaction on the back of that. The first three months have been very constructive for our markets business. On the banking side, in terms of M&A ECM, I mean, you can expect that some of the deals that were in the pipeline closer to execution are all being executed. Pitching is still happening, mandates are still being given, but the execution of some of these deals is being postponed.
Yes.
Yeah.
Of course. I think on that point, we'll close out our sessions. Ralph, thank you very much for being here with us, and sharing your thoughts. Thank you.
You're welcome.