Right. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to be joined today by Todd Tuckner, UBS CFO.
Absolutely. Pleasure.
Thank you for being with us, Todd. Let's start with the polling question. What do you think will be the primary driver of share price performance for UBS in 2026? We have a few choices. Clarity on capital, which hopefully is a few weeks away, earnings upgrades, wealth management inflows U.S. or Asia, new additional buyback in the second half, or macro-driven. A very clear cue. Fantastic. We will get there shortly. Or shall we comment first?
Sure.
You know, let's start with capital. We are nearing the end of the too big to fail. At least in April, we should get some sort of proposal. What can you tell us?
Well, look, you know, Giulia, first of all, thanks for having me, and hello, everyone. You know, for sure on the issue of capital reform, we have been advocating pretty consistently for outcomes that are internationally aligned, targeted specifically to the Credit Suisse issues and proportionate. In fact, that was the tenets outlined by the Swiss government itself when it developed a framework for financial stability reform two years ago. Unfortunately, when the proposals were issued in June of last year, they were sort of none of the above. As a result, you know, if those proposals were adopted as currently worded, you know, we believe it would make us a pronounced outlier versus peers in terms of the level of capital and equity that we would have to hold.
You know, we've been clear on our position, particularly through the consultation process where proposals were sought on the various issues. We'll know in a couple of weeks, as you say, or at least in a few weeks, what capital reform has in store for us, for sure. In the meantime, we continue to advocate for a better outcome in terms of what the potential impact would be. Just last week in our annual report, we had disclosed that the potential consequence of the current proposals would be a capital increase of around $22 billion. When the proposals were first tendered last spring, we had indicated the impact would be $26 billion.
That delta, again, assuming that we maintain our target capital ratio at the parent bank, that delta is really owing to the significant capital repatriation we were able to achieve over the course of 2025. That's always been planned to bring that capital back. Indeed, that capital is sitting at that first-tier operating subsidiary, our parent bank, at the moment, just given the dollar softness relative to the Swiss franc that we've seen over the last year, which has informed a degree of leverage ratio constraint at the operating subsidiary level. That's effectively caused us to leave some of that upstream capital there and has driven the capital ratio higher.
Indeed, you know, as far as, you know, what our expectations are, you know, we continue to advocate for a more moderate outcome.
Thanks. If I can follow up then on capital, talking about capital distribution, $3 billion share buyback was announced, and there are $9 billion upstream accrued to be upstreamed, which I think would leave room for another $2.5 billion buyback in the second half. How should we think about the potential for more capital distribution in the second half?
Giulia, we committed to do a CHF 3 billion share buyback. We're, you know, out doing that at present. We said we aim to do more, but the aim to do more in 2026 really is a function of further visibility on capital reform, as we've just been discussing, we should see, you know, sometime in the second quarter. What I would highlight is that, if you consider the CHF 3 billion commitment to share buybacks that we've made for 2026, plus the dividend that we're accruing for, which would be, you know, we've indicated a double-digit increase on the 2025 dividend, we're approaching CHF 7 billion of capital returns in 2026, all told.
If you recall, post the Credit Suisse acquisition, we said that our ambition in 2026 was to return as much capital as we did in 2022. At around $7 billion, even before we upgrade any of our share buyback ambition depending on the shape of the capital reform, we're already in striking distance of that level.
Perfect. Now, having covered the capital topic, let's go to some of the hot topics of today. There is a very volatile geopolitical environment at the moment, with the war in Ukraine. How are your clients navigating this uncertainty? How is this impacting your business so far in Q1?
Yeah. You know, I would say if you look at our private clients, you know, at this stage, given the geopolitical developments of recent weeks, you know, I would say our clients remain engaged and active but cautious. On the private client side, on the institutional client side, you know, I would say engaged and active just given if you look at, for example, you know, equity index volatility being high and even single stock volatility being even higher and are creating a quite high degree of dispersion. You know, that has been supportive of, you know, in particular our trading desks.
It's important to highlight of course that the market seems to be pricing in more short-termism still around this conflict. You could see that in the equity markets. You could actually see that more clearly really in how the bond markets have behaved, more pricing in inflationary shocks and potentially giving central banks pause to easing. You haven't yet seen impacts that would suggest there's a real growth issue.
I think, you know, if the tensions were to persist, and you move away from, you know, what are being priced in as inflationary shocks to something that really starts to weigh on growth, then I think, you know, that could really be a game changer in terms of how we would be advising clients, but also just the level of activity in the market.
Perfect. You mentioned it helps trading desks. Any comment on Q1?
Well, I think, for our markets business in the investment bank, you know, coming into Q1, the markets continue to be constructive and supportive of our business doing well. With the geopolitical environment sort of changing acutely, if not certainly at least moderately, if not acutely. You know, as I said, we're still seeing conditions that are supportive of our markets business. Again, it's something that we need to clearly watch.
If I ask about another hot topic, private credit spreads have been widening. We receive a lot of questions from investors on banks' exposure to BDCs, how exposures are structured, how, you know, senior and secure the bank's exposures are. What can you tell us here from UBS's point of view to reassure investors?
Well, as you know, Giulia, I'm sure everyone, you know, here appreciates, you know, banks leverage to private credit, right? Typically comes by dint of lending to private credit funds. You mentioned BDCs. These exposures tend to be senior secured referencing diversified pools. So, you know, perhaps, you know, the views from other bankers are, you know, that perhaps there's not yet anything to, you know, see here. I would make two comments. You know, one, the vast volume increases we've seen in bank lending to private credit funds since COVID, where volumes have, you know, probably upwards tripled. We haven't really seen a true turn in the credit cycle to really test those volumes. You know, that's one point I would make.
Certainly if there is more systemic stress in that environment, given the interconnectivity between banks and non-bank financial institutions, you know, you could start to see perhaps some pressure points. I believe that's the case, you know. But whether we're seeing systemic stress, I think, you know, people would suggest at the moment, no, it's not systemic. It's maybe more, you know, at this point, you know, one-off, as opposed to something that, you know, would suggest there's a real issue. But it clearly bears watching. In UBS's case, though, I would say, you know, our exposure to private credit funds, I'm quite comfortable with.
If you think about the total volume relative to our total leverage exposure, it's about 0.5% of our total balance sheet in terms of our lending to private credit funds. That exposure is senior and secured. We have low LTVs or conservative borrowing bases, as the case may be. You know, I'm comfortable with the level of exposure that we have.
Perfect. Sorry, just to quickly follow up. Private credit within your asset management business instead, what are you seeing there?
I think private credit is an important part of you know our investment management space, certainly in terms of our fund offering. We have you know for example in our Credit Investments Group. I mean they have largely sub-investment grade exposures into private credit and you know that's an asset class that's heavily sought after and it has been and continues to be even in the current market. Demand is strong. You know no concerns in terms of at this stage in terms of our investment funds and their performance in respect of private credit. As I mentioned before you know I think we need to be clear-eyed about to the extent it becomes you know more.
There's more systemic relevance to this. Again, there is an interconnectivity that between banks and the non-bank financial institutions that can be tested.
Perfect. If I now turn to artificial intelligence, how worried should we be, in your opinion, about how AI can disrupt the wealth management business?
I don't think AI certainly for sure won't diminish the value of advice. I think what it will do is it will be disruptive to many industries, but not least to wealth management. I believe it will be disruptive to wealth management, but I think it's important to unpack that. AI will create a lot of improved advisor productivity. What I mean by that is the tools that banks and, you know, talking in the first person, that we're investing in at UBS will make advisors and are making advisors decidedly more productive. Less admin time, more client time, more personalization, faster response times to clients. Those are quite positive.
It's also quite important in an environment where more digitally native clients will over time inherit or accede to wealth. I think this is critical in terms of the way to serve. Now, on the higher end of the wealth spectrum, really where we play, I do believe that characteristics like trust and judgment and risk discipline and just the overall stewardship of the client relationship will remain important. While it may be, quote, disrupted, unquote, I certainly think that for a bank like UBS, we can still differentiate ourselves in that respect. Here is really the key point.
I believe that, you know, if you're clear-eyed about what needs to be done across the whole value chain, which not only includes investment in tools to support the advisors themselves, but the entire front, middle and back, then I believe that there is a lot of efficiency that can be achieved by banks investing as we are. In doing so, even if clients ultimately inure to a lot of that a lot of the benefit of AI investments and a lot of the benefit of the efficiencies, not least because there are more entrants to the market that therefore put pressure on price and top-line margins, I believe a bank like UBS in wealth management can continue to generate quite attractive pre-tax margins by dint of the efficiency gains it gets front to back.
Thank you. If I stay on AI, but, you know, more general beyond GWM, Sergio mentioned on the Q4 call that UBS is investing in a portfolio of AI programs. What can you tell us about these and the progress you're making there?
Yeah. Giulia, if you think about, you know, each quarter when I talk about the synergies that we're seeking to achieve from the Credit Suisse acquisition on a gross basis, and I also show, you know, the net saves that are visible in our underlying OpEx. One of the big reconciling differences between gross and net is our investment in technology and in particular in artificial intelligence. We've really jumped into this with both feet, notwithstanding, you know, our focus on the integration of Credit Suisse. Let me offer you some examples. I mentioned the investment we're making in tools to support advisors and advisor productivity. I also said what's critical is what happens front, middle and back.
One of our large initiatives is to enable AI to automate and control the most expensive parts of the client life cycle. Things like account opening, know your customer, any kind of account changes. These things that are often done manually and often are quite time-consuming, not just in Global Wealth Management, but across our businesses, is something we're investing heavily in because we believe we can automate that very important part of the value chain. On top of that, we're making significant investments in other things. I'm sure like many banks completely looking to rethink and reimagine software engineering, so making it much more productive, faster and efficient. Just given the level of development and engineering costs that we incur, you know, that's a significant game changer.
Looking just in the middle office and the back office, just rethinking the processes in operations, in compliance, in credit risk, and in my own function in finance, using AI to really upend the processes, make them much more efficient in the end. I believe will contribute again to us generating attractive net margins despite, you know, AI potentially in the marketplace, you know, placing some pressure on top line margins.
Thank you. Very helpful. Let me see if the room has questions for you. Otherwise, I can carry on. Okay. Let's give the room another couple of minutes. In the meantime, I will ask you about GWM again, but in the U.S. The strategy for U.S. GWM was announced about a year ago. How do you measure the progress that you've made so far?
In terms of our wealth U.S. business, it's really, you know. Let me just reiterate that is a very important, if not a cornerstone of our overall Global Wealth Management franchise. As well, the wealth management business in the U.S. is a critical part of our overall U.S. business, which is, you know, very significant to our group strategy of growing in the U.S. We continue to invest in our wealth U.S. business to drive growth, to improve pre-tax margins, and to narrow the gap versus peers. We are clear-eyed on the gap versus peers, and it's one of the reasons that, you know, we have set out this multi-year plan, as you mentioned, to drive pre-tax margins higher.
In 2025, we improved pre-tax margins by 3% year-over-year. You know, we think that there's evidence of success in what we're doing, but we still have a ways to go. What are some of the things that we're focused on? Number one, really leaning into the collaboration with the Investment Bank to drive an important transmission channel of CIO advice, of specialized advisory services, of structured products and capital markets to our wealthiest clients in our U.S. wealth business in collaboration with the Investment Bank. That has been a differentiator when you look at transaction-based revenues in the U.S. business. It's also, by the way, have supported Global Markets in the Investment Bank, as well.
Secondly, we're investing in our platform in the U.S., our coverage models, our ability to distribute product seamlessly across the field. That's resonating with our financial advisors, and in turn, that's improving the client experience. Third, we recognize the importance of improving banking, in particular our NII penetration or net interest income as a percentage of total revenues, is such a critical part. If you think about what really informs a gap versus peers, it is a distance in terms of net interest income as a percentage of total revenues. We're very clear on the need to improve our banking capabilities, and we've been investing heavily in those. The feedback from advisors has been great. We've had seven consecutive quarters of net new lending growth.
We know that it's working. As I think you know, Giulia, we have conditional approval for National Bank Charter, which we also believe is fundamental. That will, you know, add to the momentum once we move forward with that. The last point I would make is it was really important to us to improve the operating margins or the operating leverage in the U.S. wealth business. We've been very focused on and disciplined around costs. That even includes financial advisor compensation and the way we incentivize advisors to be aligned with our strategy of growth in the U.S. We recognize that those changes have had an impact on advisor movement.
Mm.
We're working through that. Been aggressively recruiting, and we're looking to turn that tide on net new money outflows in relation to that particular topic. We're confident in what we're doing. In fact, last month when we talked about our targets during the investor update and talking about the business, we upgraded our targets. We brought our targets in, accelerated them by a year. We're now looking in 2026 to generate a mid-teens or 15% pre-tax margin. We indicated our ambition is to do high teens around 18% by 2028.
Very clear. Thank you. If I now move to the other side of the world, Asia, where you have a leading franchise and you want to grow, you're talking about hiring, more, financial advisors. How do you see the competitive landscape and the growth opportunity in Asia?
In APAC, our you know our growth and our performance reflects our standing as one of the preeminent wealth managers in a critical growth market for us. You know, we're looking to build on that and reinforcing our strongholds in our Singapore and Hong Kong locations. We're also leaning into growth markets and very focused there across Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Japan, India, Australia, to name a few that we're quite focused on. We're looking to gain market share there in those jurisdictions. We're investing in our feeder channels, and we're looking to hire up advisors as well. One important growth aspect that's relevant across GWM but also in APAC is doubling down on our foothold in high net worth.
We think this presents for us a great growth opportunity. We're very focused on investing in service models, enhancing our service models in the high net worth space, where we're also looking to through strategic partnerships to gain market share as well, and to also hire some preeminent high net worth advisors as well to support our growth. I should mention the digital channel is quite important that through building out digital, we do expect that you know, that'll be accretive to net new money and net new client acquisition. We're quite focused on leveraging our strength in APAC and growing from there.
Excellent. Let me check if there are questions from the room. Okay. A very busy but quiet room for now. Investment Bank, you achieved the 15% return target in 2025. How do you feel about, you know, maintaining these returns or improving as the Credit Suisse consolidation comes to an end?
Giulia, I mean, in the investment bank, we're continuing to invest in our capabilities and generating sustainable returns for our shareholders. You know, we're very well diversified across the globe. We have top franchises in Asia, across Europe, and in Switzerland, and we've really strengthened our presence in the Americas. By the way, Credit Suisse has been a real boon to the diversification, the resilience of that business. We talked a little bit about Global Markets.
You know, I expect Global Markets, again, notwithstanding my caution about the current geopolitical environment, but in the current market conditions to continue to do well, leveraging its top equities franchise, but also in FX and precious metals, and also reinforced by our global research capabilities. In our banking franchise, we've invested in our coverage teams and our product capabilities, and that's adding to an already robust pipeline. I expect Global Banking to continue momentum into 2026. I mentioned earlier in the context of the wealth U.S. business, the fact that the collaboration between Wealth Management and the Investment Bank, it for us really is a differentiator.
It is not a soundbite, but it really is how we go to market, and I think that continues to be a differentiator for the Investment Bank as well as for Global Wealth Management. That gives me confidence in our ability to generate a 15% pre-tax return on equity through the cycle. I should mention doing that also with the IB consuming no more than 25% of the group's risk-weighted assets.
Very clear. Thank you. If instead we move closer to home to Switzerland, that business at the moment is a little bit challenged by rates at zero and also the migration. What gives you confidence in achieving the below 48% cost income target by 2028, especially given that I understand you don't plan to reach the below 50 exit rate for this year?
First, I would say it's important to mention that just this past weekend, the team began the final switchover of clients in the Swiss booking center, which just in the coming days here will be, you know, complete as we go through our final checks. With that done, that will complete the entirety of the client migrations that we've had from Credit Suisse platforms onto UBS platforms across the globe, and in this particular case, in Switzerland. Now, that is super important for a few reasons. One, the management team of the Swiss business, including personal and corporate banking in Switzerland, but also Global Wealth Management in Switzerland. It frees up immense amount of management time that has been focused on clients, but focused in a way to ensure a seamless transition through this account migration.
You could see that in the evidence of minimal disruptions, despite this being one of the most complex migrations in the banking industry. You could also see that in the level of retention that the business has been able to achieve. It's also important that you know, now that our clients will be on a single platform, that focus on the business can be now recalibrated to focus on book transformation and focusing you know, more so on helping clients generate healthy returns in their portfolios. It's not just you know, the business of the migration which has been quite significant, but you know, we get back on our front foot and we're able to drive net new client acquisition and overall growth in the business.
The last point I would make, why this migration being completed is so important is it then turns the page and allows us to focus on the last stage of the whole integration process, which is decommissioning and dismantling the entire Credit Suisse platform, particularly in Switzerland, by far our most expensive. I've talked about the overall cost of running that is upwards of about $1 billion a year. To be able to take that out is quite important. You mentioned, Giulia, the rates environment, and clearly the rates environment has had an impact on net interest income for the P&C business.
Mm-hmm.
By far its most important revenue line. Given by the way, the outlook on that, with some of the recent geopolitical developments and the broader macroeconomic uncertainty that Switzerland and other countries in Europe have been facing for some time, the rate outlook is a bit mixed. We're seeing now some more vol in the rate outlook, at least from an implied forward perspective, to suggest that there'll be movement in the rates. I've said in the past there's positive convexity in that, insofar as rates either moving negative or positive is actually helpful. It's been in that sort of dead zone of just the zero policy rate for some time.
Even if it were to stay at that level, and that's the way we have to think about it, one, we expect double-digit profit growth in 2026, even if rates stay at zero.
Mm-hmm.
While we may fall just short of our underlying cost income ratio target of 50%, at the end of 2026 because of NII being a bit challenged, notwithstanding, we believe by 2028 we can generate a cost income ratio of around 48% even with interest rates staying at zero. Why and how? Because of the points I mentioned earlier in terms of, you know, getting back on our front foot, generating non-NII revenue growth, but also being clearly very cost discipline and also having some of the investments in AI I talked about and digital assets, enhancing the cost income ratio for P&C, when I look at the outlook.
Thank you. If instead I ask you about asset management, this division has delivered very well ahead of schedule, on cost income, but also on asset growth. If we look forward, is the 3% the right number, the right benchmark for this business? Could we expect more?
That's fair. I mean, you know, when I look at asset management, you know, I appreciate the comment about the operating leverage that they have generated. They have done a great job reducing costs while at the same time integrating Credit Suisse onto the UBS platforms. They actually met their end 2026 goal a year early in generating below a 70% cost income ratio on an underlying basis. They've also been quite focused on sharpening their product offering.
If you look at the business, you know, we're a global top five limited partner in alternatives, and so that gives the business along with Global Wealth Management, you know, the scale to be able to offer quite attractive investment opportunities to our clients across private markets, hedge funds and real estate. That's a key part of their offering. They also have deep traction in the ETFs and indexing in our Credit Investments Group and also in our SMAs that are designed and delivered jointly with Global Wealth Management.
with that product offering, that we think is quite robust, in addition to, the efficient way in which the business is run, you know, we look to continue to drive growth. Indeed, we have an ambition of a 65% cost income ratio by 2028, as we articulated last quarter. On the, in terms of net new money growth, you know, I also think that, when I consider the array of of opportunities, and the product shelf that the business has. I do think 3% net new money growth through the cycle is an appropriate benchmark and ambition for asset management. Why?
When I step back and look at the collective set of secular trends across the industry, I think that a 3% growth rate, you know, is sufficiently ambitious, and that's why, you know, we've asked the business to focus on that as their target.
Great. If we move away from the, you know, divisional discussion and think about the end of the integration, we are nine months away pretty much from it. You mentioned it earlier. Is there anything in your mind that could perhaps derail the decommissioning or you have high confidence on that? Related to this, how does the gross cost savings target translate into net, and is there upside on achieving the cost saves?
Yeah. If I harken back to 2023, you know, when I started devising as the group, you know, as Group CFO, my first plan with Sergio at the time, and we were sort of playing all of this out through the end of 2026. We've been consistent on. You know, our expectation was that we were gonna finish the Swiss Booking Center client migration in the first quarter of 2026, and that was the plan in 2023. We have been, I mean, you know, I think each quarter we've been very clear. Hopefully, the market has seen it that way in terms of the things that we've had to do and what we have been doing to achieve that. We're at that point.
Now we have the rest of 2026 to decommission and dismantle all of the, you know, the infrastructure, the hardware and the software and the data centers supporting in particular the Swiss booking center. We have the optionality because we're on plan, on target. Of course, we have to do the work, and we believe it's gonna take the rest of 2026 to finish that work and really unlock when I talked about close to CHF 3 billion of gross cost saves in 2026 to deliver, you know, a fair part of that. It relates to the Swiss booking center. That's gonna take the time.
In terms of the gross versus net, one comment I would make is that, when I go hark back again to 2023 and think about the way we thought about gross cost saves and what would hit through as a net save and effectively inform our underlying cost income ratio as we exited 2026, we made certain assumptions about investments. One thing I will say is that I commented earlier, you know, we jumped in with both feet on AI. We've been very focused on investing in digital assets as well. I would say there's probably been more tech investment ultimately than we probably initially planned.
Mm.
For those reasons, I think, you know, maintaining our cost income ratio target at less than 70% by the end of 2026 is appropriate, and we're gonna need the whole year to achieve it.
Clear. You've mentioned now a couple of times digital assets, and Sergio also made some remarks in Q4 around UBS looking more at tokenization as a secular trend and looking at tokenized deposits. Can you tell us what are the key initiatives that UBS is working on, and how do you think this can impact the business?
Sure.
the industry?
We're certainly developing the modern infrastructure and helping to develop that in Switzerland, where we've rolled out UBS Tokenize, which is effectively institutional-grade tokenization of real-world or traditional assets such as bonds, funds, and structured products through their life cycle. That's something that is live. We're also developing and have proofs of concept of what we're calling UBS Digital Cash, which is tokenized deposits, particularly for institutional clients to support real-time 24/7 settlements and payments. You know, for us, we think digital assets will improve liquidity, market functioning, and also collateral efficiency.
You know, we're taking part of that, and we believe the market and the regulator appreciate that that's coming behind, you know, a trusted bank like UBS.
Very interesting. Thank you. We might have time for one last question from the audience, if there is any. No. Otherwise, Todd, thank you very much for your time today.
Thank you very much. Thanks, everyone.