Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the VAT Q3 2021 Trading Update Conference Call. I'm Sasha, the Chorus Call operator. We'd like to remind you that all participants will be in listen only mode and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q and The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it is my pleasure to hand over to Mr.
Mike Halligan, CEO of VET Group. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to VAT's Q3 2021 trading update conference call. With me this morning is our CFO, Fabienne Chiosa and our Head of Investor Relations, Michel Gerber. After our introductory remarks, we will start the Q and A session. The call moderator will take your questions in the order you enter them.
Before I start with the review of VAT's 3rd quarter business performance, I would like to thank again the global VAT team We continue to deliver an outstanding performance during the past quarter by delivering an extremely high level Despite the ongoing challenges with COVID-nineteen and the global supply shortages, our growth in Q3 was Supported by the ongoing ramp in our factory output in Malaysia and Switzerland, and both factories are running at record output levels. Now let me turn to our business performance. During the Q3 of 2021, BAT saw continued strong markets Driven by the long term global growth in the semiconductor demand, the industry continues to run at record output levels As can be seen from the ongoing chip shortage, and this looks like it will continue for the foreseeable future. Ongoing semiconductor technology innovations fueled demand for all of our products. Investments in the semiconductor industry I'm now focused across the board on all technologies and all weather sizes.
We also see OEM demand coming on strong in some of the more niche technologies like silicon carbide. This resulted in record sales in VAT Semiconductor and Global Service Business Units. In this area, VAT outgrew the market and continued to gain market share. Our leading technology position coupled With our strong business execution across all our markets were the main drivers of this performance. In addition, the Advanced Industrial Business Unit reported strong growth as it captured the growth opportunities And its recovering markets and continue to make progress on its strategic growth initiatives.
Demand in the display and solar business remained muted, But recent order activity indicates that the bottom of this cycle may have been reached. A key lever of VAT's 3rd quarter sales performance was the strong mitigation of supply chain challenges in the semiconductor And other industries. This has the full focus of our management and supply chain teams. And so far, we have done an incredible job solutions for the very challenging shortages. We do expect these shortages to continue well into 2022, Especially as we continue to raise factory output.
We have a few bottlenecks, but by close Cooperation and transparency with our customers, we're managing to meet their needs. VAT's operations team continue to increase the global production footprint, we expect to reach production output of around CHF 180,000,000 in Malaysia for the full year. And by the end of the year, a run rate of at least CHF 220,000,000. At the same time, we further Optimize our production capabilities in Switzerland to manage the additional volumes. Group orders of CHF299 1,000,000 In the Q3, we're 91% higher than the same quarter a year ago and up 18% sequentially, yielding a 3rd quarter book to bill ratio of 1.3.
This high order intake was driven By the generally high level investment in the semiconductor businesses for both valves and service offerings and was further Accelerated by global supply chain constraints, which may have triggered some additional inventory buildup, especially from our smaller customers. Both the Advanced Industrials and Display and Solar business units also posted higher orders in Q3. The company's order backlog at the end of the 3rd quarter amounted to CHF284,000,000, up 129% compared Was the end of September 2020. VAT's Q3 net sales grew to CHF 229 CHF Millions, an increase of 23% compared with the same period in 2020 and at the top end of the company's guidance Issued with 2nd quarter results in August. Foreign exchange movements did not have any material impact on VAT's Q3 net sales.
For the 1st 9 months of 2021, group orders and sales are up 54% and 28%, respectively, Compared with the same period a year earlier. Foreign exchange movements had a negative impact on net sales of about 3 percentage points. Turning now to our business segments. Valve reported Q3 orders of CHF 250,000,000, up 101% year on year and net sales of CHF185 1,000,000 an increase of 22% compared with the same period in 2020. The Q3 order growth was mainly driven by the semiconductor business units, where orders increased year on year 117 percent to CHF 187,000,000, a new all time record.
Net sales also posted a new record level Amounting to CHF 137,000,000, up 31% compared with the Q3 of 2020. The business unit Semiconductors recorded 8 specification wins in the 3rd quarter, Bringing the total to 18 for the 1st 9 months, with 3 of them resulting from the company's growth initiative to develop new adjacent products That complements its core valves business. We continue to be on track with our 2021 spec win targets across the various business units. Orders in the display in solar business units increased to CHF21 1,000,000, Up 59% year on year, representing the best quarter of 2021 so far. The main contributor to this order growth came from the display business where the company received orders for both LCD and OLED fab expansions.
In the solar business, the main business driver continued to be the Parrot Technology sector. The Advanced Industrials business unit continued a strong recovery with Q3 orders up 69% year on year, Reaching a new record of CHF 42,000,000. Sales were 17% higher at CHF 33,000,000. The recovery was broad based and resulted from generally improving market conditions coupled with positive results from growth initiatives Implemented during 2020 to focus on Asian markets and new product sectors. VAT saw continued strong demand in coatings, Especially related to high end applications such as mobile phones and optical coatings and especially in Japan and China.
Scientific instruments, material and life science also showed continued strong demand, Partly the result of research institutes in the U. S. And Asia returning to normal activity levels after a prolonged standstill due to the COVID pandemic. VAT shipped several prototypes to large scientific instrument OEMs, which is a Key initiative to increase VAT's engineered content with these important customers. The Global Service segment reported new record Q3 orders of CHF 49,000,000, an increase of 53% compared with the same quarter in 2020 and driven by strength in all four sectors of the business.
That is the parts and repair, gates, Upgrade and retrofits and sub fab files. Net sales were up 28% to CHF 44,000,000. High utilization levels in the semiconductor fabs drove increased demand for spares and repairs as well as consumables such as gates. In addition, new retrofits in the control valve space were launched during Q3, focusing on critical etching processes used In 10 nanometers and below nodes. Increased business activity was also seen in the sub fab segment As the largest independent device manufacturer brought new fabs online.
So let me now turn to our guidance for Q4 and outlook for the remainder of 2021. The medium term growth drivers for VAT, Mainly in the semiconductor industry, VAT's largest end market, remain firmly in place. Megatrends such The Internet of Things, cloud computing and artificial intelligence have been boosted by pandemic related developments Such as the shift to home office and the sharp increase in e commerce. The current capacity shortage in all semiconductor categories has driven record capital expenditures by chip producers and VAT expects this to increase well into 2022. Market analysts estimate that investments in wheel fab equipment in 2021 could increase by more than 30% to around CAD 85,000,000,000 Compared with the previous record level of $64,000,000,000 in 2020, market estimates for 2020 To indicate low double digit growth.
As a clear market and technology leader, VAT is well positioned to harness this Trend and continued strong above market profitable growth. In the display markets, investments in large OLED screens and additional Capacity for smartphones are expected to remain muted. However, the company believes that the bottom of the cycle may have been reached and expects business to gradually improve over the next 12 months. In solar PV, the current investment cycle is part of technology It's expected to continue with the shift to higher efficiency heterojunction solar cells is forecast to gather pace during 2022. The market rebound for Advanced Industrial Vials remains positive, driven by both a general global economic recovery Plus expected strong growth in China.
In addition, upgrades of large synchrotrons continue, especially in the U. S. And Asia. Company also expects to make further progress in the area of Scientific Instruments with several prototype deliveries. VAT's global service segment is also expected to grow, driven not only by demand in its main semiconductor market, But also by new product launches as well as the increase of its large installed base, which is opening additional opportunities for upgrades and retrofits.
On this basis, VAT expects Q4 sales of CHF240 to CHF 250,000,000 and full year 2021 net sales of CHF885,000,000 to CHF 895,000,000. The full year EBITDA margin is expected to be above the half year levels of 33.9% And net income for the year is expected to be substantially higher than 2020. Capital expenditures for 2021 are expected to Approximately CHF40 1,000,000 Free cash flow is expected to be substantially expected to substantially Exceed the previous year's record level as higher EBITDA more than offsets working capital requirements. So this concludes our prepared introductory remarks, and we are now turning back to the call operator for the Q and A session. Operator, please.
We now begin the question and answer session. You may return to confirm that you have entered the queue. Sorry, I'm muting your line because I'm doing feedback. Thank you. So if you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2.
Participants have requested to use only handsets while asking a question. The third question is from Didier Shimama from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much for taking my questions. I just wondered if you could maybe qualify a little bit the comments you made in your press release this morning with regards to and I apologize if I have good words in your mouth, So double ordering from your semicap customers and explaining perhaps the sharp acceleration order intake versus Q1 and Q2 run rate. So if you could give us a sense of how much
of that
1.16% is due Additional purchases to compensate for supply constraints or fears of supply constraints, that'd be great. And I've got a quick follow-up. Thanks.
Yes. Thank you for that. We estimate about 5% to 7%. We do see strong order activity across the board, across all segments, and that did drive up our Q3 sales. We didn't necessarily see over ordering, as you put it.
With our largest Customers, it was mostly in the mid to smaller OEM category. And I think they're concerned with the
ramp up in the industry and
also with lead times increasing And also, with lead times increasing slightly, so we think that drove around The $20,000,000 to $25,000,000 additional orders in that time frame. We do see order intake continuing strongly
Even in
the 1st part of October, so we're very optimistic about our Q4 order outlook as well.
That's great. Very helpful color. As a follow-up, I just wondered if you could give us a sense of where you think your customers' inventories are Generally and specifically with regard to your particular products?
I think pretty healthy. When I look at our inventory position in VAT, we've got a healthy balance of inventory In house and with consignment inventories in the field, Actually in September, our inventory in the field dropped a little bit, which shows a healthy pool from our customers. So I think the balance looks pretty good at this point. I think it's quite hard to judge where the industry is at because there are so many Specific supply chain shortages, and I think they impact every company in different ways Depending on which components they use and what type of materials they use. So it's quite hard to read the exact status.
But when I look at our inventory, it certainly looks pretty good supply demand balance right now.
Excellent. Thank you so much.
The next question is from Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Thanks for letting me ask the question. My question to you would be, What has changed from the earlier part of the year? I mean, shortages existed in the earlier part
of the
year, shortages existed in the Q3. So based on what Customers are telling you what has actually changed because you seem to be giving a slightly different message from earlier in the year. The second question I have is regarding supplier. I mean, clearly, your orders are very strong. In terms of you talked about the market growing low double digit next year.
How do you see your own order shipments increasing next year? And do you have enough capacity to supply That sort of growth. Thank you.
Yes. The first part of the
question, I don't think Too much has changed. I think there's just an ongoing challenge across the industry to get things like electronics components. I think they're well publicized. You get different constraints with different types of electronics components. So I think it's just a general supply issue across Our main material and electronics subcomponents, I think on the material front, Maybe the first half of the year, aluminum was a bit harder to get.
And in tighter supply, I think We're seeing that free up a bit in Q3, Q4, and it looks more promising for 2022. I would say right now the number one issue is electronics components. And that's really just a daily challenge to deal with the constraints. That sometimes means we have to requalify new components, Which is difficult, but we have to do it if there's specific issues. Supply, yes, right now, We're forecasting an industry growth in the 5% to 7% level.
We obviously expect to grow faster than that. So we've got various scenario plans running To ensure we have the capacity output, and I don't see any constraints for 2022. We're ramping the Malaysia So on plan, and we're also adding additional capacity in Switzerland, And we're preparing plans for further capacity adds into 2023. So I think VAT should be in a good position To meet any increase in the market.
Thank you.
The next question is from Michael Foap from Vontobel. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. My first question would be regarding Your supply chain constraints or capacity constraints, to put the question maybe differently is could you have generated more revenues If you had no supply chain constraints and more capacity available? That will be the first question. And the second one is On supply chain as well, how are these component shortages impacting your costs And your margins or the let's say, the also maybe the logistics costs, how are those impacting Your cost side are at VAT.
Yes. I'll let Fabienne talk about the Costs, I'll just say a little bit more on the output. I think it's a difficult one to gauge. Would we be able to revenue more because it also depends on how much pool we get from our customers. And as you can imagine, the Juillain's are juggling other supply chain issues and adjusting the manufacturing output In line with them.
So I think realistically, we would have maybe done an extra 10,000,000, 15,000,000 If everything lined up and we had no capacity constraints or supply constraints, But the question still would have been, would they would have been effectively pulled by the OEM, so again, pretty hard question to answer. On the cost side, Fabienne, do you want to say a little bit on that?
Yes, Mike. I can add some color to that.
With regards to your question on the logistics cost, I
mean, we obviously also observe quite significant increases in sea freight rates. Also Airfreight has seen strong cost increases, however, is now becoming more usable Also for additional product groups. So our expectation is that there will be a slight downward trend towards the end of the year And it also looks more stable into 2022. With regards to the effects on VAT, We sell roundabout 2 thirds of our products ex works. So there we are definitely not affected With regards to the increases towards distribution to our customers, on the other hand, We do also advance on certain cost increases to our customers.
So on the bottom line, The effect of these distribution cost increases is very insignificant at this stage To VAT's profitability.
Very well, thanks. Maybe just one follow-up One additional question on
the spec wins in adjacencies that
you talked about, those 3 spec wins. Can you maybe comment a bit more in detail in what sort of applications that is?
Yes. Mostly around our Motion Components and Advanced Modules. We had 2 major platform wins with Motion components, they're continuing to do well. I think the capabilities that we bring To the market with these specific components look very, very promising. We continue to build momentum there.
And same in advanced modules. As the complexity continues to grow, We're getting a lot of opportunities to add content for the OEMs, And that covers things like from EUV tools to advanced etching and deposition systems. So I think the capabilities we're building up put us on a great trajectory to We outperformed the $150,000,000 level that we talked about in last year's Capital Markets Day. By the end of the year, we'll give you an update on How we stand with that compared to the Capital Markets Day outlook that we had last November.
Okay. That's very helpful. Before the end
of the year or with the full year results?
No, with the full year results, yes.
Okay. Great. Very helpful. Thank you.
The next question is from Sebastian Skouene from RBC. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning guys. So first of all, impressive order intake, but I have to ask again on the preorders. If I run the numbers, then you have about €55,000,000 of orders that you're not going to deliver in the 4th quarter. You also tell us that the outlook for the orders in Q4 were very strong and you guide for EUR 245,000,000 revenues, which then means You may add another $50,000,000 to the order book. To me, that seems like much more than 5% to 7% of orders being Preorders, it looks more like 20%.
Can you maybe explain a little bit why you think That's only a small portion of preorders in your current order book and expected for Q4. Thank you.
Yes. Well, I think lead times are also increasing across the district. We've seen Some OEM lead time increasing considerably. So I think that's one factor. And how that plays out Entirely on Q4 orders and Q1 orders, we have to see.
We're going to continue increasing our output, And you'll see that continue to increase into Q1. So I think we will be running with a higher order backlog, Plus some of the display orders we took in Q3 were for delivery in 2022. They tend to have more or longer lead times than the semiconductor orders. So yes, it's a dynamic picture And it's new territory that we're in with the growth in semi industry. So we'll see how that plays out.
But from what we saw and the estimates we had, somewhere in the 5% to 7% level looked like it was additional orders from these smaller Smaller OEMs.
Yes, it's additional orders from the smaller OEMs. The bigger OEMs sorry, the bigger OEMs do not Show that behavior of chasing orders now for delivery next year. So they are still They still expect you to deliver whatever they order and they expect you to deliver it within 4 weeks?
No, it's not 4 weeks. I mean, I think the whole industry is now working on a more like 3 to 4 months. So we're getting A lot of visibility from the OEMs in terms of their need because we're running at such high levels,
I
think the whole supply chain is doing a better job. But I'm trying to lay out the plan for Q4 and into 2022.
That's very understandable. Good. Then I have a question on the outlook a bit longer term. I mean 2022 is Fine. We know what the projects are, what the investment projects are in semi.
So your revenues will be fine. But then for the planning for 2023, I. E, orders late 2022, do you see an incremental risk From the memory side of the market, because we now hear more comments on dropping DRAM prices. Now if I recall correctly, in 2018, that was the main early trigger for the sharp market correction. So do you become a little bit more do you become incrementally cautious on the memory side?
Or is everything fine as it was 3 months ago?
Hi. I certainly agree with your comments that 2022 looks promising from a memory standpoint. You saw the Announcements from Micron with increased CapEx into 2022. And Samsung also, we've had look pretty strong for 2022. I think it's quite hard to predict You know exactly what will happen in 2023.
The only thing I would say is that the DRAM side especially, We're seeing an uptick of new technology into the advanced nodes there, and that's definitely driving a higher CapEx per waiver. So I think that's going to offset some in the DRAM market. And even if we see Lower pricing in 2023, they're still going to have to make investments to increase The technology at next generation nodes. So I think DRAM should continue the way Advanced Logic did in 2019. I think the big question mark is NAND and just how much capacity they're bringing on versus supply.
And I think that's we'll see how that plays out in 2022. At the moment, that looks quite positive For 2022. And if they don't add too much capacity, that Shouldn't lead to too much of a challenge in 2023, but it's a really tough one to call with the growth rates we're seeing in demand business.
Final question from my side. Again, the 2018 spec wins that you had, it's always a bit difficult to For us to understand and to put this in context, would those 18 spec wins indicate market share gains, stable market share, Ongoing trajectory on gain. So how do we read these 18? Is it 18 out of 22? Is it 18 out of 100 Tenders, technology tenders?
Yes. I think the At any one time, there's obviously a different level of platforms getting developed within the industry. It tends to be more in the down cycle that you see Platform changes and new technology introductions. So there's probably a few less platforms as we Come into the volume phase of the industry. Nevertheless, I would say our spec win rate It's well above 80% with these 18 spec wins.
So it indicates As I've mentioned in previous calls, so I think we're performing at a very high level there.
Perfect. Thank you so much for your help. Much appreciated.
The next question is from Daniel Radley from Octavian. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Sorry, My questions have already been asked and answered. And therefore, sorry, I was not able to take me out of the queue.
Okay. Okay. Then the next question is from Robert Sanders from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I guess my first one is just on the balance sheet. Historically, I remember you talking about returning up to 100% of cash flow I'm trying to target a net debt to EBITDA level of 1x.
Clearly, you're going to be well below that on the leverage. Is there any kind of reason why you wouldn't just return 100% of cash flow with the next dividend payment? I'm just Kind of looking at it looks like something in the region of at least CHF 6.6 today. And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.
I'll pass that to Fabienne.
Yes.
As we have communicated Also during the August call, we stick to our earlier If I give it a policy that we will distribute up to 100% free cash flow to equity to our shareholders And with current Estimates, I would also not see why we should be changing that in any way. And Obviously, on the dividend proposal, I'm not going to comment on today. But Yes, we stick to what we have set before.
Got it. And my follow-up is just I think
this is That's brought up already. But just to be clear, on the raw material costs, I think that's the very can you just remind us how large that is as a percentage of your cost of goods sold? And what is the hedging and the trend in terms of the main drivers, whether that's steel or rubber or whatever That is the big guidance. Thanks.
Again, here we are well Hatched on the raw material side, certainly into Early months of 2022. So therefore, upon this point, we haven't seen any significant effects On our material costs, which are somewhere south of 40% over sales, We do, however, feel a strong push on several commodities as Mike has already alluded to earlier, where we are now in discussions with our suppliers In order to negotiate prices for the remainder of 2022 and then most of all also secure The locations in order to keep up our production capabilities. We have already Increased some of our prices where this was necessary And we certainly also continue to absorb any potential material price Increases in 2022 either by negotiation or Especially with our continuous improvement programs that is rendering Essential results in order to compensate these increases and defend our margins.
Thanks. Just to clarify, Mike, a point you made earlier about the long range targets. On the full year results, you will update your long range targets, which I think it's pretty much out of date now or is it just a sort of high level change?
No. What I mentioned is we'll give you an On the adjacencies, they are a smaller part of our business and growing obviously. So it makes sense To look at them more on an annualized basis to show how those adjacencies are growing. So we'll update them And the full year results.
Got it. Thank you.
The next question is from Marta Brusca from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hello, good morning. I would like to follow-up on Just a medium term target that I also think they're a little bit out of date. So maybe it comes back to our discussion from January this year. I already kind of thought it's a little bit on the low side, it's €1,100,000,000 in 2025. And I just wanted to ask you whether you're still standing by this and with this year it's not 30% growth.
Next year, you said it will be 5 to 7 for the industry, VAT above that. So I'm just wondering, we know that will be close to 1.1 Brilliant. So good. All righty. So and then I also kind of struggle to square this with your comments I understood you don't expect to see the downturn as far as you can tell into the future.
Some really are struggling to square how your guidance Thank you. Can you give me the current view if you can help me on that, please?
Yes. Well, I think If we go back to November last year at Capital Markets Day, the industry was forecasting a 5% to 7% increase, About the same that we're forecasting at this point for next year. Obviously, it was a completely different outcome. And I think we've seen The CapEx heading €85,000,000,000 approximately. So it's driving, I think, a much higher level of CapEx than we And the rest of the industry expected.
So yes, clearly, we will go past the €1,100,000,000 we talked about then. And we will revise our 5 year targets. I mean, we have to do that with the strength of the industry. When we update those 5 year targets, we haven't fully defined yet, But I think we can safely say we're going to exceed them. And The other part of your question, sorry, could you repeat that again?
No, I did actually answer it. Thank you. That's very helpful. I do have a follow-up because the timing, so when you will update the guidance, I believe it would reflect where you have More visibility or the industry has more visibility, which is of enormous interest to us as well. So when do you expect this The visibility or the confidence a little bit to increase.
What shall we look out for?
Yes. Hi. That's a question we've been asking internally. We look at supply demand balance, we look at I think we look at fab investments. We've just seen in the last few days, for example, further fab announcements from TSMC in Japan.
And they're coming in, in the 2023, 2024 time frame. That indicates that we should see strong CapEx in 2023, also the fabs TSFC are building in the U. S. So I think it's we know there will be a correction. There always is when you've got such high growth levels.
But at this point, it's quite hard to predict when that's going to be. Our last estimate was towards the end of 2022, possibly the beginning of 2023, then we pushed it out to maybe the end of 2023. But with these additional fab announcements that could again generate strong spending in that period also. So I think I would imagine by the time we present our full year results in early March, We'll certainly have a better outlook on 2022. And I think our major customers are also updating their plans.
They generally give us 1 to 3 year outlook, so we can plan our capacity requirements. So hopefully by that time we'll have a better view into 2023 also.
Basically spring, the Q1?
Yes. I would say so.
Thank you. Okay. Thank you very much. It's super helpful. Thank you.
The next question is from Raimo Rosnau from Helvetica Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes.
Hello. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Okay. About your own capacity potential, I mean, you Let's take aside any supply chain issues, assume everything is fine. Market demand continues to be great. You mentioned that Indonesia is now at a run rate of €220,000,000 per year, Further ramp up coming, you're doing optimizations in HOG. I mean, how much sales could you generate in the best of all worlds By the end of next year.
Yes. I'd say intrinsic capacity limits at the moment Probably around about $1,400,000,000 in total sales. That's including our service revenues and so on. So we still have a bit of headroom to play with that at this point. Malaysia, we plan for 400, 450,000,000 approximately.
We can probably push that closer to 500,000,000. And we still have Some optimization opportunities like additional shifts, etcetera, we can run-in Switzerland. So that should get us to Around the $1,400,000,000 But clearly, we have to have additional capacity Coming on stream around the 2024 time frame, possibly even slightly earlier than that. And we're obviously planning that.
Okay. And CHF 1,400,000,000 is basically on the current setup Without major new investments and then the additional capacities in 2024 or kind of brownfield, right? Not totally greenfield. Okay. That won't also cost a fortune.
Well, the capacity increase It's up to 1.4. Yes, I would say that's just standard, a few machines, A few assembly lines and so on is fairly low cost and well within our budgets. The next capacity expansion will be a new factory at one of our locations. That will be A fairly high expense level, and it will put us probably above the 4% to 5% CapEx that We talked about before, but probably just for 1 to 2 years. So very affordable.
I think over the cycle, we'll still maintain that 4% to 5% CapEx ratio. But I think you will see in
the year that we're
Completing the building and bringing in new machine tools, you'll see that CapEx ratio pop up a little bit. Okay.
No, that's great. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Jurgen Wagner from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Your service business also keeps growing strongly. How cyclical is it? Reason why I'm asking could that compensate any potential slowdown whenever that comes?
And the second question, What
would you
believe your semi exposure currently is split between memory and logic? Thank you.
Yes. I'm delighted by the progress in our service business. And the I think the key factor there, we're seeing Very high growth rates over the 4 sub segments within service. So it's not just one Particular area. And we're also seeing it grow across all geographies, which is also important.
So I think their service strategy is working. Is it fully preventing a cyclical Response, I would say no, because fabs are running at a huge capacity, I'd say close to 100% across The board, all waiver sizes. So it's definitely driving higher than normal service performance. However, I think even during a down cycle, our installed base is growing exponentially. And I think we showed in Capital Markets Day that most of our service efficiency, the sweet Spot is after 7 years, and we're really now starting to get that installed base into the high growth VAT years going back to 2017, etcetera.
So we expect that to generate further strong growth in our service business, Probably not the growth rates we're seeing right now, but I would expect to be low single digits even in a semi Downturn. I think one important factor though is the size and also the profitability. That profitability will help us What's our company performance when we do see a semi correction? And then semi exposure, I think the best way to look at VAT is just The CapEx that's been spent at any one point, our products are pretty good Proxy for the CapEx at any one point in time, we've got high share across all the major platforms. So it pretty much goes where CapEx has been spent in that quarter, be it memory or logic.
So if you take the total CapEx performance of the industry, our sales narrow that pretty well.
Okay,
understood. Thank you.
It's roughly fifty-fifty at this point, I would say.
Okay.
And I think that's going to follow just to follow-up on that. I think that's going to follow even more that industry Allocation because our spec wins on the latest nodes, someone asked a question earlier about our spec wins. Well, Our share is extremely high on the very leading edge nodes. So over the next 5 years, I think we'll mirror even more The CapEx allocation to the semiconductor industry.
The next question is a follow-up from Didier Schimmel of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my follow-up.
I just wanted to come back to the clarification you came earlier you came up earlier with. So if I adjust the sort of EUR 20,000,000 to EUR 25,000,000 sort of excess order from Tier 2 chip companies, You still have a 90% year over year increase in orders, which is more than double your run rate of the first half. So I just wondered if you could explain where that acceleration is coming from. Is it because your customers are preparing for a massive boom in 3DNN next Yes. And therefore, more deposition steps, therefore, more vacuum valve demand?
Or is it rebuilding of inventories because those inventories, As you mentioned, are running quite low.
You see where we're coming from.
We just don't try to we're not trying, we're trying to understand why such a sharp acceleration at the time where obviously the cycle is good, So we need some dark clouds on the macro side. We're trying to understand why the discrepancy continues.
Well, I think overall, with the share gains and the adjacencies we've been growing, we are seeing a growing order intake in general across all customers. So the when I look at the percentage increase across all the major customers, it's growing quite nicely. What we're seeing at this point, and I agree with you on NAND comments because we're seeing from Chinese and Korean OEMs, very strong order intake in Q3 as they prepare for the first In Q2 in 2022, they tend to order with longer Lead times, we want to make sure we get the supply. And we saw that bubble a little bit in Q1. We saw strong order intake.
And also Q4 last year, we saw strong order intake from the Korean and Chinese OEMs as they give more of a 6 month view of the business. So, yes, I think 3d9 is probably one of the reasons, I would say, driving that. But it's Really hard to pin it down to one effect. There's also the display mix coming in there and the advanced industrial with Extremely strong order intake there. And when we looked at the data, it was Pretty hard to say exactly where it was coming from.
So we expect to see gradual increase from all OEMs into Q4 and into Q1, you'll see our factory output ramping in kind of line with that. But no question lead times are growing. Hence, you can see that or you can see that from our backlog.
Got it. So you would say partly being a bit earlier in ordering, partly 3 d NAND, more steps, blah, blah, blah, Partly is there a pricing element as well you think? I mean you mentioned that in passing earlier on questions on input cost inflation?
Not yet. I think a little bit of pricing in our Advanced Industrial sector where we've had some Challenges on some unique raw materials, but I think our pricing actions will mostly kick in, in 1st and second quarter next year.
And sorry, final question. Micron, as you said, guided CapEx up next year with DRAM down and And meaningfully, is that you think an appropriate picture for 2022 for the industry? Or do you have a different view?
I think overall, it's probably a decent picture, but don't underestimate the amount of CapEx required on these new advanced DRAM nodes. I think that's going to keep spending at a pretty reasonable level. I mean, you can also see EUV shipments continuing to grow as well.
Yes.
And they're now starting to creep into the DRAM sector as well. And that will automatically drive Higher etch and deposition sales. So I think DRAM maybe not Looking so good from a pricing standpoint from the large chip makers, but probably okay from a CapEx standpoint for the OEMs.
Fantastic. Very, very clear and extremely helpful. Thank you so much.
There are no more questions at this time.
Okay. Well, thank you very much. And That concludes our prepared remarks and questions for today. If there's any follow-up questions, please Address that to Michel Gerbrand. Thank you very much.
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