Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (TLV:TEVA)
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41st Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference

Jan 11, 2023

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Good morning, everybody. I'm Chris Schott at JP Morgan, and it's my pleasure to be introducing Teva this morning. From the company, we have the company's recently appointed CEO, Richard Francis, as well as CFO Eli Kalif. Eli's gonna make an initial presentation, and we're gonna move over to some Q&A with both Richard and with Eli. With that, welcome and look forward to the presentation.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Thank you, Chris. Welcome, everyone. Just before I start, I want to thank Chris and J.P. Morgan team to have us presenting here. It's really nice to come back, now after three years, really more exciting. Today we're going to review a few elements. We're going to talk about Teva today, we're going to elaborate on how we are progressing with our current financial targets, which shift around the debt, I will elaborate more about what we communicated in the second quarter last year about our financial targets beyond 23. Before I begin, please refer to our forward-looking statement on slide number 2. Additional information regarding this statement is available on our SEC forms 10-K and 10-Q under risk factors. First, please let me welcome Richard Francis, our President and CEO.

The old management and our teams globally are really excited to have Richard with us. What I can tell you, 11 days in the job, we're already up to speed with a lot of processes, onboarding, and helping Richard to get up and running. I'm sure Richard will elaborate on all of these in the coming session with Chris. Teva today. We're committed to be the world's largest leaders in generics. The most critical element for us is how we're managing our footprint in order to allow us to have a better access for medicine for patients. Teva is the largest supply chain manufacturing company in the entire pharmaceutical industry. Across 37,000 employees with 53 manufacturing sites, we're working around the clock to make sure that we're able to support our mission.

Most important is also to enable to have access to around 60 countries across six continents. Every hour, there is around kind of a, you know, a saying, one plane in the air, or every hour you have kind of a ship in the seas or truck in the roads, just to make sure that we're able to deliver to all the pharmacies and hospitals around the world. As an integrated, innovative generics R&D organization, Teva global R&D organization really uniquely positioned to support our mission. We are always continuing to find new ways on how we're able to innovate and to explore synergies across our existing processes. If you like, really re-redefining how pharmaceutical industry should look on innovative development programs.

When I'm saying uniquely positioned, what we did in the last several years, we were able to build the right structure in order to give us the right agility to be more flexible on how we're shifting and prioritize projects in order to support our ongoing growth pipeline. This slide is kind of summarizing more about those strategic focus that we have at Teva. Continue to be the leaders in generics and as well building and accelerating our capabilities and our capacity around biosimilars. We stay committed to make sure that we can be more competitive around cost on healthcare related to biosimilars. If you look on the third one, it's around the innovative products. We're keeping fueling our pipeline with more innovative products that kind of having a certain level of preclinical or it depends on the phase.

I will elaborate more about our existing products, mostly about Austedo and Ajovy and how we're further penetration them in the market. If we just try to look a bit back on what we did in the last five years. We set for ourselves kind of a target that started end of 2017, and it was accepted with the management and with the board. When we started it, opioid actually kick in somewhere early 2019, and it's come grow and become more complex. I'm really happy that today we have agreement. As we announced Monday this week, we're actually seeing ourselves moving to the next stage when we expecting to see the same, more or less, level of participation with the cities, counties, and the subdivisions.

Doing that one and enable us, hopefully midyear, to put this one behind us and keep our focus on how we are able to serve our patients. What we also did in the last five years, and as we committed, we served the debt. We look on any assets that we are able to monetize. We look on anything that we're able to optimize in order to contribute cash and totally allocate it in order to serve the debt.

All in all, we're able to pay around $18 billion, this is including the coupon interest, to our bondholders. We're going to continue to do so. One of those elements that enable us to do it is actually looking on how we're able to optimize our spend base, which is part of it's related to the revenue and the mix in terms of the cost of goods sold. It's part of it is how we're able to put the right network in order to support our existing revenue. In 2017, when the restructuring was announced, we had around $16 billion, and it was planning to go to $13 billion. What you will see in the further slides, and here as well, that we're able even to take it below. We can call it around $5 billion.

You know, Teva, it's actually aggregation of around 20 acquisitions that this company grow in the last 20 years. We have so much acquisition, you're actually bringing a lot of complexity into your footprint. Complexity also giving you capabilities. What we are doing in the last 4 years, and what we'll keep doing, is looking on those capabilities and how we can actually leverage on them to understand how each one of those capabilities enable us to build our competitive advantage and to make sure that we are really cost-effective. One of these example, you can see on top, we're able to take the entire network from 80 sites to 53 manufacturing sites.

Just to kind of a recap and understand where we were, you know, end of 17 until 19, when we actually come to the bottom, with the Copaxone patents, expired and with the US generics competition and price erosions, we're in a position that we need to take some actions in order to enable us to extend our ways to repay the debt. When we put that plan, we put around to top in 350 basis points. Remember that number? I will come back to it very soon. As you can see us now, at least based on the Q3 year-to-date earnings that we announced back in November, we're actually yielding to that target.

Now, to get a bit more focused and just try to understand what our team and our, you know, global employees did here in the last 5 years, I want to mention 3 things here that really have a nice view here. First of all, we always actually look on our top line and how we're able to make sure that we have the right support and the right capacity and capabilities to manage our expansion on the OP. The second element that you can see here, that after Q3 year-to-date, we already topped 250 basis points from that 350 basis points, and we're on the way to actually meet our target by end of 2023. We're really positive that we're going to do that one.

Another element that we can see here is on top, how the ratio on the net debt to EBITDA went from 5.3 to 4. You will say 1.3 turns on more or less EBITDA of 4.8. You understand that this is around $6.5B actually went in order to reduce that one. This is what you see in the bottom line. That free cash flow generation year-over-year at the level of $2 -$2.2B, this is what allow us to do it. We just need to remember one thing is that when we set those targets, we didn't really rely on top-line growth or kind of a mix in terms of top line.

If you look on 2020, the mix in between Austedo, Ajovy, and Copaxone was at a tune of around $2.2 -$2.3B . We guide to be by end of this year on all those three by $2.1B . That's mean that the acceleration of the erosions on Copaxone, when we were able to catch up with others, this in-between mix enable us to actually mitigate that one. We never actually took that advantage, and you can see it, and it's very obvious. Another thing we need to remember that around 50% from our top line is a non-denominated US dollars. Any movements on currency is really sensitive in our worlds, and it's actually flow-through. This is the trajectory in terms of the net debt.

As I explained, our capital allocation method in the last five years were strictly in order to serve the debt. I hope that in the next two years, we'll have some more opportunities to accelerate on some other surplus on cash and hopefully to come to a normal debt rate, so we can support the business and our growth. In order to do that one, we need to actually look in on our debt stakes. We went to the market in 2018, in 2019, doing the refinancing. We also did in 2021, a $5B SLB refinancing, where in November 2021, we addressed the maturities of 2022, 2023, and 2024. We're coming back to the market this year in order to address the 2025, 2026, 2027.

On paper, what you can see here, we need around $3.5 -$4B in order to refi those debt stake, in order to allow us to keep running our operation and to get our free cash flow run rate to support our debt. You can see here also, it's the euro and the US dollars. This is kind of a mix of 40-60. We're doing what we call a natural hedge, and we make sure that our debt is really aligned to our revenue mix in terms of the currency in order to support our manufacturers and collections worldwide.

When you actually looking on what we did in the R&D area and how we're able to position ourself, what we did in our network on the manufacturing, it's really also, I think, interesting to see. This is IQVIA data that we actually spoke about in second quarter when we introduced our new long-term financial targets about how we have this kind of a gradual shift between in the mix of small molecule and biologic. In the last 5 years, this was turning like a 25% from the total 100 million you see here. This one is actually growing, but the shift here is like more about the large molecules on the biological, which is coming into kind of a 50/50%.

How you actually really position yourself and leveraging those capabilities I spoke about, and leverage your R&D organization in order to react to that element. We really believe that according to that data and according to what we see in the market, we have a lot of opportunities on revenue growth. Now, shifting a bit to our two innovative products. We start with Austedo. As you all know, there is around 750,000-800,000 people in the US that's suffering from tardive dyskinesia. Currently, if you think about the data, diagnosed around 15%. Also like less than 6%, around 50,000 treated. Which mean that there is a really unmet need here that we need to address, and this is our mission here.

If we just look on Q3 year-to-date versus a year ago, it's like 20% increase. Q3 by itself versus Q3 2021 was 30%. We're really on track on that element. The other element is Ajovy, which is really progressing nicely. This one is yet, unlike Austedo, it's more globally. It's around all the 3 markets, international markets, Europe and of course, North America. What we can see here is actually all in all that we are still serve at least a third of the market in terms of market share. We're not going to stop here. We are looking actually to grow that piece.

What is really excited me in the last two years when I'm in the company, with all this restructuring, with all the efforts that we did in the network, People are really busy on optimizing and do really remarkable job, is to see those assets. You need to remember, we launched Austedo in the second half of 2017. We launched Ajovy in 2018, which mean that muscle of that capabilities to grow innovative products, same as we did in Copaxone back in the years, it still existing Teva. This is a really huge DNA that we have in the company, and I'm really excited about it. Shifting to our innovative and medicine, biosimilars pipeline. Of course, I will not go through all those elements. You can see here how we're building our capabilities on biosimilars.

We have around 13 assets on biosimilars. 5 of them is with a partnership with Alvotech. You can, you know, name Humira and Stelara. Last week, there was announcement about the BLA on Stelara. As we, as far as related to Humira, we're still actually positive about launching in early July this year. Another element is Lucentis with a partnership with Bioeq AG. We already launched it on the first half of the year with 2 countries in Europe. Now, another interesting element is about risperidone. We actually resubmit back in November this year, we are actually expecting to get FDA response by end of the first half of the year.

I believe that somewhere this year we'll come back to the market with kind of a sort of capital R&D day that we'll talk about more assets and our R&D organization, our executive management will come and tell everyone more about our capabilities and our assets. ESG, it's really something that we developed with Teva in the last several years. As a company that you consider to become like from the search until the distribution A to Z, you need to actually look how you're able to embrace and to penetrate ESG across all those activities that we have. Of course, there is a lot of details here behind, but what I will mention it is where we have the focus.

Everything is starting with how you're able to make the right governance in terms of the executive management, the steering committees that we have, in terms of how we're working with the board on ESG. Another element is how you're able to make sure that you have the right measurement and the right disclosure when you move on. We are really progressing in that area. Also, you know, I spoke about debt and I spoke about refinancing. We actually match our refinancing strategy into our ESG strategy. We issue sustainability-linked bonds, about $5 billion with actually two main KPIs. Those one related to the environmental as well on the access. The access to medicine, it's really something that exciting us. It's really mainly dominated with our international market segment.

The risk, it's really about what I will say, how you actually accelerate on regulatory approvals in a low-, mid-income countries based on the World Bank list. As well, how you're able to penetrate on more volumes. This one is really actually moving very nicely and we're progressing. Also we tape our 1.8 revolving credit facilities into certain KPIs as well. As we move forward, we'll keep refinancing. I believe that around 50% from our debt by 3 years from now will actually type with ESG KPIs. Really exciting about it. A lot of work here by the team. Just to kind of elaborate a bit on those long-term financial targets beyond '23. We came to the market on the 2Q, and a few things I wanted to mention here.

First of all, you saw very clearly that we are on the way to reach the 28%. We're not stopping. We'll keep working and optimizing as much as we can in order to make sure that we have the right competitive advantages, advantage, and we are really cost effective across all our manufacturing footprint, across all our R&D offices and the sites. Another thing is about the cash conversion. What we did in the last several years, and we keep doing it's not only the ability to translate $1 of earnings into free cash flow, it's also how you match your working capital into your revenue trajectory, the mix inside, how you're able to have more control on your shipment patterns and make sure that you actually less finance your working capital.

This one is really progressing very nicely, that will enable us to be beyond this 80% cash conversion. Of course, on the debt, as I mentioned, we're committed to serve the debt and to keep the leverage until we get to kind of a normal debt ratio that enable us to keep and grow the business and reallocate sources from our capital allocation that we have today. All of these ones should enable us to really support growth. I just have kind of... Meaning my time passed, I've taken another 10 seconds from you. That's my last slide. I just want to leave you here with three messages. The first one, as I mentioned, we continue to optimize our business and continue to expand our margin.

The second element is that we continue to serve the debt, and we continue to deleverage. The third one, we are actually looking for growth. Thank you very much.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. Thank you for those comments. I think we're gonna pivot over to the Q&A section here now. Maybe it's the folks who can see it here. Maybe Richard, I'd love just, you know, you're obviously a few days into the new seat, but would love to just hear how you're thinking about kind of top priorities and maybe some of your high-level views on some of the, both the opportunities and challenges at Teva as you kind of move into the new seat.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Well, thank you for the invitation. Firstly, I'm very excited to join Teva. Everybody seems to ask me that question. I'm excited because I think there's a lot of opportunity at Teva. I think the company's done tremendous work to get the company back on a footing and a solid foundation. And I think there's an opportunity to get the company back to growth. What are those opportunities? Well, I think Eli's highlighted a few. I think we have a world-class generics business, and I think we've got a great pipeline there, which allows us to think about that business and, particularly, you know, how we can drive some growth there.

I think some of the major growth drivers around biosimilars and around the innovative portfolio that Eli touched upon there, where, you know, there's still significant unmet need that can be addressed. You know, I think there's a lot of positives. You know, you said they're negatives. I'll end, you know, obviously we have debt and that gives us, you know, some capital constraints. As we think about the plan going forward, we need to take that into account. But as you saw, it's headed in the right direction, we've got to start to plan for that. The focus for me is to make sure with the management team, we can come back to the market mid-year with a clear idea of the future of Teva, where it's heading and the specifics of how to get there.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. Can you just elaborate a little bit in terms of your background and how that prepares you for kind of the next steps for Teva here?

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Well, I think, what's interesting in the last 19 years of my career, my number one competitor has been Teva. I spent 13 years, over 13 years at Biogen, where I was, obviously competing against Copaxone.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

The last, so 5 years I was at Sandoz competing against Teva there. I think I know the company very well.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Also I think that experience that I've had in specialty, the biotech side with Biogen, I think I'll be able to leverage that with the innovative pipeline. Then with Sandoz, obviously, I think coming into Teva, you know, that knowledge will be really helpful in understanding how we can maximize the business, both generics and biosimilars. Then the last two years, not to forget, I've been in, you know, gene therapy and cardiology small company, where I've seen really how exciting some of the new modalities are, as well as some of the science that's out there, which I think creates an opportunity for companies like Teva as well. I like to think that's gonna help me, but time will tell.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay, great. I think it's discussed in the presentation, Teva's made a lot of progress the last few years in terms of integrating, in terms of addressing some of the debt structure. I guess with where we see the company is today, does there come a point where the company needs to think differently, I guess, about as you look towards driving towards growth, about maybe thinking about investment levels differently or how they run the business differently? Have you any, like, kind of initial thoughts on that?

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Yeah, I do. Look, I think it's a good question. Obviously we have limitations with regard to the debt we have. I think first and foremost, I think we've got to make some choices about what we want to invest in and that means what we're gonna have to stop investing in. Because I do think we need to keep control on costs to make sure we can keep servicing the debt in the way we are and we have been. But I do think we've got to make some choices. Very quickly, this is gonna change. The landscape's gonna change. We're gonna get to this ratio that Eli talked about.

I think we've got to plan for that and we're gonna plan for, you know, how we're gonna move the business forward, where we're gonna invest more aggressively, both from organically and inorganically, and we're starting to think about that now. That's something which, once again, we'll reiterate more clearly in mid-year. Even in the short term, I do think there's an allocation of resources that can be decided upon pretty quickly.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. Maybe on that kind of topic, I mean, if I look kind of bigger picture at the pipeline, how do you think about the balance right now of what Teva's spending on, let's say, more innovative assets versus biosimilars versus traditional generics? Is that the right balance, do you think, for the company going forward, or is that an area that we could think about there being some evolution?

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Well, it's a good question. I can't really answer that because 10 days in, I haven't got my head around that one yet.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

I'll be back.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

In fact, I'm working with Eric and his team next week on that.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

I can't answer that question. What I can say is that I'm really impressed with some of the capabilities that Teva has on the research side, which I think are underappreciated and were definitely underappreciated by me from the outside in looking. Good question. I think it goes back to what is the strategy of the company? What are we trying to do long term? Based on that, every function and every dollar should follow that strategy. Once again, I think it's another thing that we'll create clarity on mid-year. Yeah, can't give you the specifics right now.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Fair enough. Just a couple more big picture ones. On capital deployment and business development, totally acknowledging that there's some constraints now. Just your general approach towards, you know, kind of, you know, partnerships versus acquisitions, small versus large. I mean, what's your bias in terms of, you know, the best role Teva can play or the best approach to build the business out?

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Yeah, look, I don't think I have a... I think they all should be considered.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

You know? I do think, obviously, capital constraints mean that I think, in licensing and doing relatively, small, targeted deals is the best way to move forward.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

I also go back to, you know, what I think is happening in the industry right now in the last 5 years is an explosion of science. You know, I think that's everywhere. It's not contained in big pharma anymore. Research is moving fast everywhere, and I think we've seen that. I think that creates opportunities for companies to partner with Teva because of our global capability. I think you've seen what we've done with Astellas and Ajovy, and I think that's something which I wanna leverage. I think for us, it's about finding the right assets, the right partners that we can create long-term relationships with.

You know, that's something which I think historically we've shown we're good at, but right now we've been a bit constrained, and that's something which I want to maybe push a bit more, you know, over the next couple of years.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. you know, we had the 2027 guidance the company recently gave. Obviously, a new CEO coming on board. Should we assume those kind of top-line growth targets, margin targets, leverage targets should still apply, or is that gonna be something that, as you think about kind of where Teva wants to invest and how to run the business, that you'll want to take a look at?

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

No, they still apply.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay, great. Maybe last, big picture question. When you think about the evolution of Teva, should we think of this as maybe more an evolution of the strategy, or could there be a bigger shift in the approach as you consider the options of what you could do?

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

An evolution versus a revolution?

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Yes, exactly.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Look, what I'm just started, I've obviously done due diligence from the outside in, but now it's time to sit down with the, you know, the executive team and really understand what options we have at Teva, what capabilities we have, look at externally how we think the segments we operate in are gonna evolve over time. You know, then we're gonna come back and we'll communicate what that strategy is. I'd say, you know, we're gonna wait till then. But I have some perspectives, but it's about doing the work now over the next few months. We're gonna move quickly, and that will define, you know, what that looks like.

Look, I think to get back to growth and to maximize the opportunities that I see in the marketplace and some of the capabilities I see with Teva, you know, I think it's gonna be a purposeful strategy that has real intent behind it.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

You know, I wouldn't say that's a revolution, but it's also not something that is gonna be marginal.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay, great. Very, very helpful. Shifting to the core business, maybe just first talking about the biosimilar market. I know that, as you highlight in the charts, is, you know, is a, it's a big component of how we think about growing the business over time. How are you thinking about the durability of some of these franchises? I think what we've seen in some of these markets, some tend to be durable, but a lot of them, it seems like we've got a nice ramp, and then as competition comes in, you know, revenues can drop fairly quickly. Talk a bit about, you know, how healthy of a market overall that that is for you.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Do you want me to go first or do you want Eli?

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Whoever wants to grab it.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Okay. look, obviously, I'm a big believer in biosimilars.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

I was a big believer at Sandoz. I think you're right. I think there is a, you know, approach where you launch, you reap the rewards of that, and then competition comes in, it starts to decline. That means you need to have a deep pipeline. You need to have a pipeline which allows you to come to market, you know, very early on-

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

...to reap those rewards, but you've got to keep replenishing it. What Eli also showed on the chart is there's a lot of biologics coming off patent over the next 5 years.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

For us, it's about to make sure we have a pipeline, we execute on that pipeline, we get it to market, and we maximize those opportunities. There'll be some bumpiness in it, but, you know, the opportunity is massive. It really is. I truly believe that both in Europe and in the US.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. Maybe a question for Eli. Can we just get an update on biosimilar Humira and your kind of confidence of your ability to get to market, by mid, I guess mid this year now?

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

you know, we actually partnership with the Alvotech, right?

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

We're constantly having with them all those reviews and the readiness around it. You know, we are supporting as much as we can. According to the data that we have with them, we're actually positively that it's going to open in that date. Times will tell.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Yeah.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Can you talk a bit about how you see the Humira market evolving, in that I think it's obviously one, you know, the largest market out there, but it seems like it's also a pretty, broad competitive, suite of entrants coming in, so?

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Yeah. We have, you know, we have Amgen here in January starting, right?

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Already yesterday, it's kind of become more gradually. There are some kind of at least 9, I think, in the line. Most of them end of June and then, like us, early July. I think it's really depend about the commercial strategy that each one of the companies will actually look.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

If you're really looking on, you know, the consumer element, if you're looking on more institutional, I think this one is really something that will play there. I think what I can tell you from our experience, and you can, you know, we demonstrate it very clearly with TREANDA in the last several years. Where actually we were able to get a very nice share.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

To actually demonstrate that we're the first, you know, big biosimilars that were able to accelerate. I think if you take those capabilities and our ability to negotiate with the PBMs and to structure ourselves with our contracting capabilities, I think that we can find a good spot. Not sure if you look on all those competitives that the full value will come in 2023, most likely it can come in 2024, but more or less that's the view.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

How important are these initial contracts in 23? I think we're hearing a lot of this kind of theme that seems like with the way AbbVie's contracted, this is maybe a smaller market this year, and then the opportunity is more 24, 25. Is it important to be there day 1 and get some of those initial contracts, or is this something you can kind of build your access over time?

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

I think it's evolving. It's evolving, and it's really depending on how the PBMs are able to peak, because they need to make sure that, you know, you have the sufficient capacity. We need to make sure they actually fulfill the commitment. I think it really depend how it's going to evolve, and we'll see it in the next few months and on those one that's starting to accelerate.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Right. On the traditional generic market, would love to just get your sense of just the health of that overall opportunity. I guess we've seen a number of companies that kind of narrow their focus and portfolio. I guess, have we reached a point that we can think about there being a more stable outlook? Or is the dynamic of this is the market that will just be under some pressure over time and opportunities like biosimilars will just kind of naturally replace that? I guess maybe either to either Richard then.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Well, I mean, I think, you know, we always talk about the generic market if it's one market with one dynamics.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Mm-hmm.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

It's not. I think, a lot of what you're referring to is about the US

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Yep.

Richard Francis
President and CEO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

If you look at the European market and the rest of the world, it's stable and it's growing, and it's a good business for Teva in all of those markets. I think that's the one thing I'd say. To clarify, generics outside the US, if you have a good pipeline and a good go-to-market model, it's predictable, it can drive growth. The US is a different story. Will stability come to the US? I think, you know, my view on that is the US is, was reset in 2014, and it's still the same as it was then, which is you have huge buying power and you have huge competition. You have a lot of people supplying the products, and that allows the purchaser to have some real power. That's just fact.

That's not gonna change. I don't see that ever changing. The question is, what is your business model to approach that market to make it less turbulent and more profitable? I think that comes down to portfolio and portfolio choice. I think the American market is still attractive. It can be still very profitable, but I think you have shorter durations of revenue growth with products that are easier to make versus the ones that are more complex. I think it's about creating portfolio selection for the US to create some more stability, which I'm sure is something you've heard. You know, I mean, that's something which we'd have to look at here at Teva.

I'd, you know, once again, encourage you to look at the businesses outside the US in generics which are performing well.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Right. A question for Eli maybe. As we look at 2023, are there any notable opportunities we should be kind of paying attention to? I think we kind of always watch of this, you know, in the past, you've talked about a billion-dollar run rate as maybe a normalized level for that North America business. Is there opportunities this year that could kind of get us to that run rate?

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Yeah. you know, we're going to the market with earnings in early February, and we're going to elaborate on that one as well.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay, great. shifting over to some of the branded products. On Austedo, where are we in the product's growth trajectory? I guess what are the biggest opportunities to continue to expand the franchise?

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

You know, my view when you look with some data there on that slide is that if you look both on the prescription run rate and both of about, you know, volume and revenue run rate, those one are actually yielding to be +20%. You know, it's kind of a run rate that you normalize, I would say, in the last, I would say 6 months, regardless of Q4 because we don't have the data now in front of us. I think that, the fact that this unmet need is about 6% just, I would say, treated versus that 15% that we mentioned, this is a huge opportunity.

You know, the tardive dyskinesia, it's kind of a side effect for the schizophrenia, and it really depend on how the physician's really able to write those scripts and are they actually going to looking on finding solution on the schizophrenia or they're actually going to find solution on this side effect. It's really depend on how this is going to shift. We're really positive about it, and we're sure that, you know, when we keep our focus, we'll be able to grow this asset to really high levels.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. Just in the last minute or so here, just to continue out the branded side. On the pipeline, I know we got, you're highlighting risperidone LAI coming to market this year. How big of an opportunity could this be for the company? I think we're all trying to struggle to size up what this means for Teva.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Yes. You know we never provide any peak sales because no one remember those assumption. I can tell you it's one of those product that really demonstrate our capabilities on the complexity, and how it's actually shifting. It's long-acting, it's subcutaneous, and it also have kind of a very nice PK profile. You know, if you look on what is out there now in terms of how easy it actually to use, without treatment, it's actually game changer. We believe that that will accelerate, and it's actually providing us kind of more penetration on a few other indications that actually in the pipeline related to that capabilities. It's going to be promising, but again, we're not providing this level now.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Great. Well, I think we're just about out of time here. really appreciate the comments.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Thank you.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Richard. Appreciate making these comments so short for the 10 years. look forward to...

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Thank you very much.

Chris Schott
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, J.P. Morgan

the updates as the year goes along. Thank you.

Eli Kalif
CFO, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Thank you very much. Thank you.

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