AGF Management Limited (TSX:AGF.B)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Jun 21, 2023

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the second quarter 2023 AGF Management Limited earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference. Mr. McCreadie, you may begin.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'm Kevin McCreadie, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of AGF Management Limited. Before we begin today's call, I want to welcome Ken Tsang, AGF Management Limited's Chief Financial Officer, who joined us earlier this month. Ken brings over 30 years of strategic finance and corporate development experience to AGF, which will be an asset as we continue to evolve our business.

Ken Tsang
CFO, AGF Management

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, everyone. I'm thrilled to be here with you today. It has been a fantastic first couple of weeks, and I look forward to building on the great momentum at AGF together with the AGF team.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Great, thanks. I also want to thank Jenny Quinn for her significant contributions to the firm as the interim Chief Financial Officer for the past few months. Jenny has returned to her role as Chief Accounting Officer and will be available for the question-and-answer period with investment analysts following the presentation today. Judy Goldring, President and Head of Global Distribution, will also be available to address questions. Slides supporting today's call and webcast can be found in the investor relations section of agf.com. Today on the call, we'll discuss highlights of our Q2 results, provide an update on the key segments of our business, review our financial results, discuss our capital and liquidity position, finally, close by outlining our focus for the remainder of 2023. After the prepared remarks, we will be happy to take questions. Turning to slide five.

In the second quarter of 2023, equity market narrowness drove the returns, while the median stock experienced underperformance. This was evidenced by the S&P 500, which was up 5% in the quarter, whereas the S&P 500, when equal weighted, was down 5%. At the end of Q2, we reported AUM and fee-earning assets of CAD 41.2 billion, up 2% from Q2 of 2022. Our mutual fund business reported net sales of CAD 77 million in the quarter, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of positive mutual fund net sales in Canada. We continue to see strong momentum in our U.S SMA business, generating CAD 73 million in net sales in the quarter as well. Diluted EPS for the quarter was CAD 0.45 per share. Our capital position is strong.

At 2022, we generated over CAD 80 million of free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis. We also have CAD 130 million available on our credit facility to fund further investments as required. In addition, we have CAD 20 million in cash and CAD 266 million in short- and long-term investments on our balance sheet. Backing this amount out from our market capitalization as of June 19th implies an enterprise value for our business of approximately CAD 230 million. Starting on slide , we'll provide updates on our business performance. On this slide, we break down our total AUM and fee-earning assets into categories disclosed in our MD&A and show comparisons to the prior year. Mutual fund AUM increased 3% year-over-year, driven by organic growth. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 rose only 1%.

I'll provide more color on our mutual fund business in a moment. Institutional, sub-advisory, and ETF AUM increased by 3% compared to prior year due to market inflows. We continue to expand the U.S. SMA business with a number of strategies available on leading SMA and wealth management platforms, such as Envestnet, SMArtX, Vestmark, and more recently, UBS and Pershing. In addition, two of our strategies were named with a gold classification on the SMArtX Select Manager List. Overall, our U.S. SMA business brings in a steady stream of inflows for our institutional business, and we are pleased with the growth and momentum we are seeing there, with CAD 500 billion raised to date. On the liquid alternative side, our market neutral anti-beta strategy continued to attract interest from investors who are looking for a strategic or tactical hedge for their portfolios.

Year-over-year, AUM for this strategy has doubled to CAD 852 million. We continue to see interest from institutional investors across multiple strategies and jurisdictions, which bodes well for future sales. Our private wealth business remains steady with CAD 7.2 billion in AUM, and our private capital AUM and fee-earning assets were CAD 2.1 billion at the end of the quarter. It is our goal to grow and diversify our private markets business to be one of Canada's emerging leaders in private market investing. We currently have an active pipeline of private capital opportunities we are looking at within Canada and the U.S. We will continue to take a measured approach in evaluating these opportunities to ensure alignment to our strategic plan and to deliver shareholder value. Turning to slide seven, I'll provide some details on the mutual fund business.

The Canadian mutual fund industry experienced net outflows for the fifth consecutive quarter, reporting net redemptions of approximately CAD 16 billion in the quarter. Despite the challenging industry backdrop, our mutual fund business managed to be in positive net inflows for the 11th consecutive quarter and recorded CAD 77 million of net sales. AGF has been consistently outperforming the industry. On a trailing 12-month view, AGF has reported CAD 431 million in positive retail mutual fund net sales, while the industry long-term mutual funds reported CAD 73 billion in net redemptions over the same period. AGF's outperformance to the industry is attributable to our disciplined investment process, our strong brand, the increasing diversity of our sales channels and client base, as well as our team's continued efforts to build key relationships with our clients and partners. I want to now give a quick update on our investment performance.

AGF measures mutual fund performance by comparing gross returns before fees relative to peers within the same category, with the first percentile being the best possible performance. We target an average percentile ranking versus peers of 50% over any one year and 40% over three years. AGF has approximately 50% of our AUM with exposures to U.S. and international equity markets. The recent equity market returns have been dominated by a small group of U.S. mega cap technology stocks, leading to historically narrow market breadth. Median U.S. stock has underperformed the S&P index by approximately 800 basis points year to date and is broadly flat as of May 31st. AGF funds have generally been underweight mega cap tech versus peers and have had a bias towards smaller, large cap, and mid cap stocks, where we see better long-term investment opportunities.

As a result, our performance rankings have declined somewhat over the very short term. At the end of Q2, our average percentile ranking was 63% over the past one year and 44% over the past three years. Performance has improved markedly so far in June, with the AGF funds delivering better percentile rankings versus peers. This reflects the improving market breadth and is an indication of how short-term performance should improve again as unsustainable market narrowness fades. Our long-term fund performance remains solid, with approximately two-thirds of our strategies outperforming our peers on a three and five-year basis. We remain confident in our investment management team and our disciplined investment processes, given our extensive collective experience and demonstrated ability to navigate challenging markets in the past. With that, I will turn the call over to Ken.

Ken Tsang
CFO, AGF Management

Thanks, Kevin. Slide eight reflects a summary of our financial results for the second quarter, with the sequential quarter and year-over-year comparisons. EBITDA before commissions for the current quarter was CAD 42.8 million, 58% higher than Q1 and 21% higher than the prior year. Diluted EPS was CAD 0.45 this quarter, compared to CAD 0.26 in Q1 and CAD 0.14 in Q2 of last year. Our results this quarter re-reflected higher contributions from the private capital business, which I will discuss in a moment. When looking at EPS, the increase against prior year was also influenced by the elimination of the deferred selling commissions, which came into effect on June 1, 2022. Net management fees for the quarter were CAD 76 million. The 3.7% increase over Q1 is in line with the increase in asset levels and days outstanding.

Compared to prior year, net management fees were relatively flat, reflecting higher average assets offset against lower net management fee rates. SG&A for the quarter was CAD 53 million. Excluding severance, SG&A for the quarter was CAD 51.9 million, which is CAD 0.9 million lower than Q1 and CAD 4.8 million higher than the prior year. The decrease against Q1 includes the impact of lower employee benefits, which are typically higher in the first quarter of each fiscal year. The year-over-year increase in SG&A was driven by higher incentive compensation as a result of our strong long-term investment performance and the successful execution of our sales strategy, which is to increase our presence in the investment dealer channel. The increase in corporate strategic investments made in support of our growth plan and the impact of higher inflation.

AGF Private Capital contributed EBITDA of CAD 18 million in the quarter, which is CAD 14 million higher than Q1 and CAD 13 million higher than the prior year. EBITDA from private capital managers this quarter included CAD 0.9 million of carried interest revenue, recognizing strong performance in two of our long-term private capital investments. Both are in the private credit space and managed by a partner, SAF Group. This compares to CAD 0.4 million of carried interest revenue in Q1. Carried interest can be variable quarter to quarter and is impacted by the timing of monetizations within the funds. EBITDA from private capital LP funds was CAD 16.3 million, which is CAD 13.4 million higher compared to Q1 and CAD 11.6 million higher than prior year.

AGF participates as an investor in the units of private capital LP funds, benefiting from valuation increases and distributions from the funds. During the quarter, we saw valuation increases across multiple funds and recorded a gain related to our monetization. On a long-term basis, we expect to earn returns of 8%-10% from investing in private capital LPs. Turning to slide nine, I will walk through the yield on our business in terms of basis points. This slide shows our average AUM, net management fees, operating expenses, and EBITDA before commissions as basis points on our average AUM in the current quarter, previous quarter, and trailing 12 months. This view excludes AUM related to results from the private capital business, as well as DSC revenues, other income, severance, and corporate development costs.

The Q2 2023 net management fee yield is 76 basis points, which is 1 basis point higher than Q1 and the trailing 12 months. SG&A, as a % of AUM, was 52 basis points this quarter, 2 basis points lower than prior quarter and flat to the trailing 12 months. EBITDA yield was 24 basis points in the quarter, which is 3 basis points higher than the prior quarter and 1 basis points higher than the 12 months prior. Turning to slide 10, I will discuss our free cash flows and capital uses. This slide represents the last five quarters of consolidated free cash flows on a trailing 12-month basis, as shown by the orange bars on the chart. The black line represents the % of free cash flows that was paid out as a dividend.

Our trailing 12-month cash flows was CAD 84 million, and our dividend paid as a percentage of free cash flows was 32%. In the same period, we returned CAD 64 million to shareholders. That includes dividends, share repurchases under our NCIB, and the CAD 24 million substantial issuer bid completed in November 2022. Our cash balance at the end of May was CAD 20 million, and we have CAD 266 million in short and long-term investments. We have CAD 130 million remaining on our credit facility, which provides credit to a maximum of CAD 150 million. We are comfortable increasing our net debt to EBITDA till the right opportunities arise. Our remaining capital commitment to our Private Capital LPs is CAD 27 million. Not included in this is our anticipated commitment of USD 50 million to an upcoming third fund managed by Instar.

Committed capital may be funded from excess free cash flows. Keep in mind, there will also be further recycling of capitals as monetizations occur, which will help to fund future commitments. Taking all of this into account, we currently have excess capital available. Our future capital allocation will be balanced and includes returning capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks, as well as investing in areas of growth. Redeploying our excess capital to drive growth and generate recurring revenues is a key strategic priority. We will have further updates on this in the coming quarters. Turning to slide 11, I will turn it back over to Kevin to wrap up today's call.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Thanks, Ken. In the second quarter, we continued to make progress against a number of our strategic objectives. Despite the market environment, our AUM and fee-earning assets remained resilient. We continued to outperform the industry and recorded the 11th consecutive quarter of positive mutual fund net flows. We remain disciplined in our investment processes. Finally, the board declared a quarterly dividend of CAD 0.11 per share. As we continue to navigate through the uncertainties in the market, we remain focused on building on the momentum from the past few years, managing the risks and our results, and creating value for our shareholders over the long term. Looking forward, I'll address SG&A guidance. At the beginning of the year, we estimated CAD 202 million for 2023, excluding costs related to corporate development and severance.

As the year has progressed, we've seen a couple of factors impact this number. First, the impact of our long-term track record of investment performance has driven variable performance-based compensation higher. As highlighted earlier, while the short-term performance has been influenced by a recent equity market narrowness, our longer-term three and five-year performance has remained strong. Second, as the retail channel landscape evolves, we are focused on increasing our presence in the investment dealer channel. As we successfully execute on this sales strategy, we are seeing higher incentive-based compensation. With this in mind, we believe that our 2023 SG&A guidance will be closer to CAD 206 million. We are in a growth mode, and the goal to ultimately drive higher value for our shareholders.

As a reminder, our strategic priorities are to deliver profitable growth and to deliver consistent and repeatable investment performance, maintain our sales momentum, and generate net inflows while building a diversified private markets business. We'll also meet our revised expense guidance and continue to invest in key growth areas, and finally, enhance our corporate sustainability programs. Finally, I want to thank everyone on the AGF team for all their hard work. We will now take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question at this time, please press star one one on your touch-tone telephone and wait for your name to be announced. One moment, please, for our first question. Our first question coming from the line of Gary Ho with Desjardins. Your line is open.

Gary Ho
Equity Research Analyst, Desjardins Securities

Thanks. Good morning. Just want to go back to the CAD 16 billion in net outflows for the industry. Fairly sizable. Maybe for Kevin or Judy, can you share with us kind of what you're hearing from the retail clients, advisors, their rotation into GICs, elevated inflation eating into savings rate? Maybe give us a glimpse of how kind of fund flows are tracking in the first few weeks of June.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Hey, Gary, it's Kevin. Let me start and I'll hand it to Judy for some additional current color. I mean, I think, you know, if you look at last year, we had equity markets down, we had fixed income markets, three negative quarters of that, and at the same time, people finally getting alternatives to move into GICs and others, right? I think of that, if you look at a trailing 12 months, you're really looking at a number that's probably CAD 70 billion out of the industry. I think it's all three of those, right? You had investors spooked, you had higher rates, and people sitting on the side. You're seeing the last quarter, it's starting to moderate.

I would caution until rates start to come down, people are probably going to hide out in GICs for a bit. I think that the trend towards stabilizing, if the equity market kind of continues to grind along here, you could probably see a pretty decent start to next year, but it's hard to predict right now. I'd say most of the money, you know, the rate of flow has started to dampen, which is a good thing for the industry. you know, when it comes back is a jump ball, but it's gonna be, again, as rates start to drop, people feel like they don't want to leave it in GICs repricing lower, and stabilization markets may bring people back down. there's a fair amount of hardship out there, too.

I think people are dealing with higher costs, higher mortgages. Some of that may be actually being used to fund lifestyles and bills. Judy, maybe you can give some more color on the current quarter start.

Judy Goldring
President and Head of Global Distribution, AGF Management

Yeah, thank you. I guess we're also hearing across the advisor base, too, that, you know, there is some money in motion if their current provider did not perform as well last year. We were able, I think, to take a bit of advantage of that. What we're seeing, as you know, we did report the 11th net positive quarter. We're seeing going into the month to date, June, as we know, is seasonally slower, and we do expect that to continue through the summer. We still remain at basically flat, slightly negative, and I think what we're anticipating is that, you know, the summer should be a bit softer, but that the, that later months of the year should be stronger again.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

That's a trend, Gary, we've seen every June. It's one of those things where we, you know, you kind of scratch your head and say, "Why June?" You know, you can explain July and August, but the industry tends to soften up in June a little bit. We're not seeing a different pattern other than we've seen previously.

Gary Ho
Equity Research Analyst, Desjardins Securities

Okay, great. That, that makes sense. My next question, just on the SG&A guidance bump, what are you assuming there in terms of maybe Q3, Q4 net sales, and how much does that move the needle if it goes above or below kind of what your assumptions are?

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Yeah, there's a couple of things going on here. One, you got to remember, we took out probably CAD 20 million right before COVID, the years coming right into COVID. We basically positioned, you know, to pivot the strategy a bit and move toward more growth, right? That was part one. Two, I'd say that when you look at the current environment last year, we looked at how to shift our channel strategy away from, again, and to defend when DSC was going to leave, how we'd pick up in other places, right? That was obviously, as you've seen, DSC has rolled off. Our sales has stayed resilient. We incented parts of our channel strategy at a different rate, and they're actually doing what we want, which is diversifying away.

That's cost us something. We look at sales for the rest of the year, we've kind of baked that in incremental comp from that sales twist in there. Growth is running literally where we thought, if you will, from where we were a year ago. It's just a different mix, which is something we had engineered and wanted to have happen. The second component of it is really on the investment performance side, and we can talk about it later, but short term has had a drift in it because of some of the issues going on in the market. Our comp plans are heavily tilted toward longer investment performance, which is what we want. We want to be more heavily tilted toward three and five versus A1.

The strong performance from late last year is feeding into those higher calculations. That's probably the second component of that guidance change. I'd say the third is basically, there is just higher inflation everywhere, and I think we're all seeing it. We're fully back to work here, so we are traveling at a normalized rate, which is significantly different than we were last year. The spend rate for hotels, airlines, et cetera, is double-digit kind of inflation. Our data costs from providers for indices and other things also running at double-digit rates. We factored that into it as well.

We feel pretty comfortable, when you put those three, that we have good line of sight on sales, good line of sight on performance, and, you know, we've made some assumptions around this higher inflation, which is stickier.

Gary Ho
Equity Research Analyst, Desjardins Securities

Okay, that's helpful. Maybe just my last question, just on the private alts space. CAD 16.3 million in that fair value contribution this quarter. Maybe give us a bit more color. What is that related to specifically, kind of what funds or what assets? Ken, I think you said it was higher valuation as well as a gain, I believe. Was that right? How, you know, how do you get comfortable with the private marks on these assets in today's environment?

Ken Tsang
CFO, AGF Management

Yeah, sure. I mean, yes, we did have a CAD 16 million bump up from fair value adjustments. I'd say about two-thirds of that was just from valuations of our various funds. A third of that was actually driven by some monetizations that we had achieved. I'd say overall, I mean, we are tracking from a valuation perspective and just seeing some results across the board from our respective funds.

Gary Ho
Equity Research Analyst, Desjardins Securities

In terms of the marks, How do you guys, kind of get comfortable with the valuation?

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

The on the monetization is pretty clear, right? There's just, you know, an asset that we told... Carrie, the other piece of it is, I'd call it quote, unquote, "event-related" with the underlying funds, meaning there is some transaction activity with surface new marks on things, which gives you pretty good clarity. Two, I'd say related to that, the assets that we're playing with in those spaces are infrastructure, where we know we're not seeing any issues in the industry with mismarks. The assets that underlie infrastructure are pretty visible and clear. Second, private credit, same thing. Not typically where you're seeing people have issues. Where you're seeing people in the industry have issues is real estate right now. Hard to value if you're in commercial real estate.

What that is, we don't have that exposure, or if you're in buyout funds, or what I call late-stage growth equity. None of those exposures in our book, so we feel pretty comfortable with the marks that we have.

Gary Ho
Equity Research Analyst, Desjardins Securities

Okay, great. Thanks for that. Those are my questions.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Graham Ryding with TD Securities. Your line is open.

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Oh, hi, good morning. Maybe just start with flows. How much of, you know, the positive flows contribution this quarter came from your U.S. SMA channel versus your Canadian channels? Maybe just some color on the mix.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Yeah. Graham, good morning. It's Kevin. Yeah, the CAD 70 odd million flow is really just pure retail, and mutual fund flows. Judy can maybe give you some color on the SMA. We don't lump the SMAs into that number, so that's a separate number.

Judy Goldring
President and Head of Global Distribution, AGF Management

Just in terms of the SMAs, looking specifically, I guess, to our U.S. institutional strategy down there, we've been seeing some strong flows after about only really two- years with that strategy in play. We're now on about four or five different significant platforms, and we're now growing that business to approximately CAD 5.5 billion, which really represents about a 70% growth year-over-year from last year. We're really pleased with the trend on that. It's about CAD 50 million a quarter.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

also, you-

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

We also comment on Canada, because Canada is not in that 77. We keep that bucket separate, too. That business is I think everyone in the industry has talked about, it's growing pretty significantly, and we're seeing the same growth there.

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

That U.S. SMA sits in your institutional AUM?

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Correct.

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Can you remind us what strategies you have on those platforms? I guess, do you anticipate, you know, if you continue to grow those assets and get some traction, could that potentially just start to weigh on your weighted average management fee to some extent?

Judy Goldring
President and Head of Global Distribution, AGF Management

Just in terms of the strategies, we've got the global balance, global equity, and global sustainable mandates, and the small, mid SMID Fund. Those are the primary mandates that we're promoting down there. In terms of the asset growth and impact overall, we do, you know, hope to certainly see significant growth, and that would be what we're targeting. In terms of impact to the overall financials.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Yeah. One of the things we talked about, Graham, in that business, if you remember, we're basically giving our alphas and weights to people. There's not a big operational tail to that, like a fund company would have, where you're creating an NAV every night, clearing trades, etc. The trading is done on this platform. We don't have a large operational tail. When you think about that, pricing differential is probably in line on an operating margin basis, kind of like what an F-Series fund would probably trade at. You know, again, if you had the same underpinnings operationally, then I'd say, yeah, absolutely. You know, I think volume has been pretty good. Again, think operational margin, not price on that.

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay, understood. When you said earlier that you're investing, you know, I guess, in your sales efforts in the investment dealer channel, is that referring to sort of your Canadian investment dealer, not this SMA channel? Is that correct?

Judy Goldring
President and Head of Global Distribution, AGF Management

Yeah. I mean, I think it's really focused on the IIROC channel, making sure that, you know, we do work with the banks on their platforms as well. It's a combination of both the SMA build-out along with the focus on the IIROC channel.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

I'd say.

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

A little about from the year-over-year was down in the U.S on supporting that SMA channel, too, as well. Most of it was the comp number we're referencing on the incentive comp is A, in retail.

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay, understood. Just my last question on the private alt side. Any expectations, you know, this year what that organic growth could be that you're targeting on your current CAD 2.1 billion in private alts AUM? In an inorganic basis, are there any particular strategies or asset classes that you sort of assess potential acquisition?

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

I mean, you know, Ash has been on board now a year. He has started to build out that team. They have really the amount of things in the pipeline they have screened down, they've probably done 25-30 transactions. They are very active and very close to probably one or two now, prioritizing which one of those they're going to move forward with. You should see something over the coming quarters there, as we have, again, gone through a pretty good vetting of things out there. These things take time to get them across. We've been very disciplined and thoughtful about it. The question earlier about marks is something we're focused on. You know, we want to be a little bit more deliberate right now, which I think will serve us well.

In terms of strategies, you know, what we have today is mostly infrastructure and private credit. We continue to like those. Broader, we'd like to build that out. Again, we're looking at some of the dislocated things out there, such as real estate, maybe, but that would be opportunistic. We like parts of the private equity space and the fund to fund space, potentially. Again, in private credit, I think will be something that we continue to focus on. It's not narrowed to a specific strategy theme. It's really about how we could bring a product to market that will have acceptance to our client base, right? It's not driven off, let's go find X, Y, Z in this space. It's more driven about what we can distribute and can find the right manager and partner.

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay, great. Anything on that organic side? Any targets this year for... You know, I think you're hoping to launch a third fund from Instar, but maybe any color on the organic side of that product, private alts platform?

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Yeah, I think we're still tracking in between the inorganic, what we just talked about, and organic, meaning a third fund, for 2023. That probably hasn't changed. You know, but beyond that, I can't give specific timing on first close.

Graham Ryding
Equity Research Analyst, TD Securities

Okay. We should be looking for a third fund this year. Okay.

That's good for me. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Geoffrey Kwan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Geoffrey Kwan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Hi, good morning. Just wanted to go back on the CAD 60 million of fair value gain, fair value marks and the gains. I think you said it was two-thirds the fair value marks and a third from the gains. Can you kind of segment that between what was coming from, like, infrastructure versus private credit for each of those buckets?

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

We don't typically go down into the specific funds, et cetera, but I would say that the monetization was private credit. Call that roughly CAD 4.5 million-CAD 5 million. Between that and carry there, I would say a small portion of it is true up from estimates from Q1 across the platforms, and the remainder is gonna be on the infrastructure side. Just again, normalized fair values.

Geoffrey Kwan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Just with respect to, I think you guys have, is it something like CAD 25 million a year, is kind of what you kind of guide, because it can be lumpy quarter to quarter. Given what you saw in Q2, would it be 2023 might be a higher than usual year? In other words, let's say if it's, you know, CAD 5 million-CAD 6 million a quarter in the back half of this year might be reasonable, or what you saw in Q2 would generally be in line with how you encapsulate what that line would be for all of 2023?

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Yeah, I, you know, I still think we look at 4 to 5-ish, right? you know, it is gonna be lumpy, right? Again, we like underlying assets, so, They're less market disrupted. To be conservative, Jeff, I'd just stay with the kind of call it five a quarter, just in terms of your modeling.

Geoffrey Kwan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, just the last question, just reconfirmation is, I think when you give the SG&A guidance, that is, SG&A excluding severance and corp debt costs. Is that correct?

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

That is correct.

Geoffrey Kwan
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question coming from the line of Nikolaus Priebe with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Nikolaus Priebe
Equity Research Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay, thanks. About a month ago, you announced a series of management fee changes across the product lineup. I was just wondering if you might be able to quantify what the run rate revenue impact might be of those changes.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Yeah, I mean, impact-wise, you know, for a remainder of the half-year, it's probably less than 1 basis point in terms of... Yeah, it's probably half a basis point. Again, we've talked to you guys for a long time that we think over time, it's 1-2 basis points a year. We haven't seen it in some years, but, you know, mix shift will have a big play in that, too, but it's about a half a basis point for the rest of the year.

Nikolaus Priebe
Equity Research Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Okay. No, that's very helpful. I think my other questions have been answered. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star 11 on your touchtone telephone. Our next question coming from the line of Tom MacKinnon with BMO Capital. Your line is open.

Tom MacKinnon
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

Yeah, thanks very much. Good morning here. The question really is with respect to the excess capital that you have right now. CAD 300 million, if you include the cash, CAD 130 million in a credit facility. You buy back some stock, but it might be equivalent to about 3% of the float per year. I mean, commitments are looking to be maybe another CAD 50 million, and you're generating some good free cash flow. Do you have any other ways you think you can put it to work other than just by buying back some shares? Is there anything out there that you would contemplate looking at in terms of significantly ramping up, say, some of your private capital investments, maybe looking to purchase some distribution? There's people been buying distribution out there as well.

Just your thoughts on that, Kevin.

Kevin McCreadie
CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AGF Management

Yeah, thanks, Tom. You know, we like our capital position, obviously, but optimally, we like to have some debt at some point, relever. As I said, clearly the acquisition side is coming closer on the private capital side, given the fact that we've been through this very active pipeline. We'll get some of that capital back to work. In the meantime, we've obviously, and we've said this for a long time, we believe in a very balanced approach, right? Dividends, buybacks, as well as investing for the future. At different times, they're gonna take different precedence. We're probably moving more toward investing for the future in the coming quarters on that. You'll see that capital get put back to work. And again, think more private capital things.

That's where we see the opportunity, that's where we see the asset allocation shifting. That's not to say we don't look at other things that would be additive to our business as part of that too. There will be a mix shift for sure in terms of how we think of that balance. In the meantime, yeah, we obviously think the, you know, the stock is cheap. If you think about the fact that even if you gave us CAD 1 for each of our investments and call that private capital business, it, I don't know, rounded up to CAD 250 from CAD 247. Our enterprise value today is, I don't know, call it CAD 500. Strip that out and say, we're not getting any credit for that.

Our operating businesses, or what you guys call wealth management businesses, round that up, probably earns around CAD 100 million. You take that CAD 250 million and, you know, CAD 100 million in earnings, it's 2.5 times, right? It has been cheap and attractive for us to buy the stock back when you think about what we're getting credit for on our core businesses. That will shift. As it shifts, it shouldn't be seen as a sign of less buybacks means we're not attracted to the valuation. It's about driving for the organic growth that we see in the future to drive earnings.

Tom MacKinnon
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, BMO Capital Markets

All right, thanks a lot.

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