Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Jun 30, 2021

Welcome to the Q2 2021 AGF Management Limited Earnings Conference Call. My name is Vanessa, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Adrian Vasaraba. Sir, you may begin. Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. I'm Adrian Vasarava, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of AGF Management Limited. Today, we will be discussing the financial results for the Q2 of fiscal 2021. Slides supporting today's call And webcast can be found in the Investor Relations section of agf.com. Also speaking on the call today will be Kevin McCree, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer. For the question and answer period with investment analysts following the presentation, Judy Goldring, President and Head of Global Distribution will also be available to address questions. Turning to Slide 4, I'll provide an agenda for today's call. We'll discuss the highlights of Q2 2021, provide an update on the key segments of our business, review our financial results, discuss our capital and liquidity position, and finally, close by outlining our focus for the remainder of 2021. After the prepared remarks, we'll be happy to take questions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Kevin. Thank you, Adrian, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. During Q2 of 2021, we continue to I'll begin with some highlights. Our strong business momentum from Q1 has carried into Q2. AUM and fee earning assets crossed the $40,000,000,000 mark during the quarter. Our mutual fund business reported gross sales of 1,100,000,000 Net sales were over $400,000,000 exceeding Q1 of 2021, which was at the time our best quarter of mutual fund flows in over a decade. At the 2021 Wealth Professional Awards AGF was named the winner of 2 awards, Digital Innovator of the Year and Employer of Choice. He's on to speak directly to 2 key drivers of AGF's success over the past year, accelerating digital transformation and employee engagement. In September of last year, we established AGF Wave Asset Management to expand into the Chinese and South Korean markets. The new innovative mandate brings together AGF and Waubao's quantitative investment capabilities and provides diversified access to China's robust and growing digital economy and Carbon Neutral Pledge. The strategy will target eligible investors in China and institutions globally looking for access to the Chinese market. Moving on to our Private Alternatives business. In May, we announced a new arrangement in our partnership with Instar Group. We are proud of the success that AGF and Instar Group achieved together through Instar AGF's 2 flagship funds, which raised over $2,000,000,000 in equity commitments. AGF will retain its economic interest in the funds, including an upcoming 3rd fund, which AGF will support with an anticipated US50 $1,000,000 capital commitment. Growing our private As well, we will be deepening the platform with our private credit fund launches. The AGF staff Private Credit Limited Partnership and Trust We'll achieve 1st close soon. The LP targets Canadian institutional investors, while the trust offers more liquidity that is more appealing for Canadian Retail Investors. Finally, the Board approved an increase in our quarterly dividend from 0 point 0 $8 to $0.09 per share starting in Q2 for shareholders of record on July 9. Starting on Slide 6, we will provide updates on our business performance. On this slide, we break down our total AUM and fee earning assets in the categories disclosed in our MD and A and show comparisons to the prior year. Mutual fund AUM increased by 22%. I'll provide more color on our mutual fund business in a moment. Institutional, sub advisory and ETF AUM increased by 1%. As indicated on our previous call, during the quarter, we received an allocation approximately $150,000,000 from an existing strategic partner to our American Growth strategy. We also onboarded a large U. S. Institution that selected 3 of our global and U. S. Equity strategies for its SMA platform. While AUM growth for this mandate will occur gradually over time, we are optimistic based on flows for the 1st 2 months. Building on the success of this win, we plan to expand our distribution reach by entering into similar relationships with other SMA platforms in the U. S. Looking forward, RFP and RFI activities have remained strong. We continue to see interest from institutional investors in a number of our strategies, which bodes well for future sales. Our Private Client business continues to demonstrate consistent steady growth with AUM increasing 19% year over year. Our private alternatives AUM and fee earning assets were $2,100,000,000 and we maintain our goal of reaching $5,000,000,000 in AUM and fee earning assets by the end of 2022. As indicated earlier, we recently modified our relationship with Instar AGF. As part of the change, AGF will receive ongoing fees of 14 basis points on Fund 1 and 2 and 7 basis points on Fund 3. AGF will maintain its investment and carried interest participation in Fund 12. AGF will also invest in and receive a carried interest entitlement in Fund 3. This initiative along with our robust pipeline of opportunities will help AGF achieve our goal of reaching $5,000,000,000 in AUM and fee earning assets by the end of 2022. Turning to Slide 7, I'll provide some detail on the mutual fund business. After seller RRSP season, the Canadian mutual fund industry continued its robust pace reporting net sales of $33,000,000,000 for the 3 months ending May 31, 2021. AGF's mutual fund business reported net sales of $408,000,000 for the quarter, which is our best quarter of mutual fund flows in over a decade. Excluding net flows from institutional clients invested in mutual funds, net sales were $431,000,000 compared to net redemptions of $93,000,000 in the Q2 of last year. AGF sales improvement outpaced that of the industry. While industry net sales are down 17% versus Q1 of 2021, Our net sales were up 6% over the same time period. We continue to see year over year improvements across all channels, IIROC, and ESG or sustainable opportunities. The momentum in our mutual fund business has continued into June, where we have net sales of approximately $75,000,000 up to June 25. Before I return the call back to Adrian, I want to give you a quick update on performance. AGF measures mutual fund performance by comparing gross returns We target an average percentile ranking versus peers of 50% over 1 year and 40% over 3 years. At the end of Q2, average percentile ranking was 53% over the 1 year period and 52% over the past 3 years. The market rotation from growth to value has tempered the performance for some of our growth oriented strategies. However, it's important to note that one and three performance for our top selling funds have largely remained in the top quartile. With that, I will turn the call back over to Adrian. Thank you, Kevin. Slide 8 reflects a summary of our financial results for the Q2 with sequential quarter and year over year comparisons. Total EBITDA before commissions for the current quarter is $28,200,000 which is $1,400,000 higher than previous quarter and $7,000,000 higher than prior year. For ease of comparison, we've shown our Investment Management business separate from our Private Alternatives business. Our Investment Management business reported EBITDA before commissions of $28,200,000 This is $4,600,000 higher than Q1 2021, driven by an increase in AUM and lower SG and A. Recall that Q1 expenses were impacted by timing of the cost of employment. Compared to Q2 2020, Investment Management EBITDA for commissions was $6,500,000 favorable, which was attributable to higher AUM and an increase in our revenue rate. The increase in net revenue more than offset the increase in compensation related to higher mutual fund sales, strong investment performance and an increase in share price. Q2 EBITDA before commissions margin for our Investment Management business has improved year over year by 160 basis points to 25.8%. Earnings for our Private Alternatives business were muted this quarter. While our earnings include 2 on investments held in U. S. Dollars within our LPs. Diluted EPS was $0.07 this quarter, which is a $0.01 lower in Q1 2021 and flat to last year. Our EPS was reduced by the cost of rapid growth, Primarily deferred selling commissions and so it's important to consider the long term value associated with these sales, while also considering its negative impact on short term EPS. Our mutual fund business reported gross sales of $1,100,000,000 which is 2% higher when compared to Q1 2021 And deferred selling commissions were $17,700,000 compared to $15,500,000 last quarter. On a percentage basis, DSC sales increased slightly when compared to Q1 2021, but decreased when compared to prior year. On our last earnings call, we revised our 2021 guidance to a range of $185,000,000 to $190,000,000 to reflect Improving growth and related expense impact. During Q2, the improving growth trajectory has continued. Our mutual fund business reported the strongest quarter flows in over a decade. We're working now to contain SG and A within $190,000,000 without sacrificing opportunities to grow. We're happy to pay for success based performance. And while this growth will create short term strain on our financial results, it will ultimately drive higher value for our shareholders. Again, please keep in mind sales commissions paid to our salespeople and DSC are expensed immediately and not capitalized. We'll earn revenue on these sales over a much longer period, generally 7 years. So in assessing the appropriateness of expense levels, We're going to consider the Investment Management margin, which as I mentioned earlier, improved by 160 basis points year over year. So turning to Slide 9, I'm going to walk through the yield on our business in terms of basis points. Slide shows our revenue, Operating expenses and EBITDA before commissions as a percentage of average AUM on the current quarters as well as trailing 12 months view. Note that AUM and related results from Smith and Williamson, the Private Alts business, one time items and other income are excluded. The Q2 revenue yield is 113 basis points, flat to the trailing 12 months. Q2 SG and A as a percentage of AUM was 49 basis points, 3 bps lower compared to the trailing 12 months. This resulted in an EBITDA yield of 28 basis points, which is 2 basis points higher compared to the trailing 12 months. This is yet another measure of improving profitability and again this is notable given the acceleration of growth year to date and related expenses. Turning to Slide 10, I'll discuss free cash flow and capital uses. This slide represents the last 5 quarters of consolidated free cash flow on a trailing 12 month basis As shown by the orange bars on the chart, the black line represents the percentage of free cash flow that was paid out as a dividend. Our trailing 12 month free cash flow was $46,000,000 and our dividend payout ratio was 50%. Our remaining Capital commitment to the Private Alternatives business is $51,000,000 which is $19,000,000 lower compared to Q1 2021. Not included in this is our anticipated commitment of US50 $1,000,000 to an upcoming third fund managed by Instar. Capital commitments may be funded from excess free cash flow, but keep in mind there will also be further recycling of capital as monetizations occur, which will help to fund future commitments. In fact, after the quarter, one of our LP investments managed by SAF, Fully monetized and we received $6,000,000 on June 24, representing our carrying value of the investment. This investment management by staff returned a gross IRR of 48% and a MOIC of about 1.9 times. In addition to the returns, AGF has recorded management fee earnings and carried interest earnings of $1,300,000 since inception, This supports our cash balance, which at May 31 was $26,000,000 And at May 31, we also had short term and long term investments of almost $178,000,000 along with no debt. We also have a credit facility, which provides credit to a maximum of 150,000,000 While we currently have no debt, we're comfortable increasing our net debt to EBITDA up to 1.5 times should the right opportunity arise. We plan to deploy our capital in a balanced way, including returning capital to shareholders and investing in areas of growth such as our private alternatives business. Redeploying this excess capital to generate recurring earnings is a key strategic priority. Turning to Slide 11, I'll turn it over to Kevin to wrap up today's call. Thanks, Adrian. Q2 was a strong quarter. AUM and fee earning assets crossed the $40,000,000,000 mark. EBITDA before commissions for our Investment Management business was $28,200,000 30% higher than the Q2 of last year. Our margin improved by 160 basis points. We recorded another quarter of stellar mutual fund flows with improvements coming across all channels and multiple product categories. Our institutional and self advisory business continued to gain momentum, onboarding new clients and winning business from existing clients. Our new private credit products will achieve first close soon. We were also recognized as an industry leader in digital innovation and employee engagement. We are focused on building on the momentum from the past few quarters and creating value for our shareholders over the long term. In the past 12 months, we have returned almost $70,000,000 to our shareholders through share buybacks and dividend payments. A strong business momentum has temporarily impacted the financial results as sales commission and DSC paid our expense immediately and not capitalized. However, it's important to note that while growth will create short term strain on our financial results, it will ultimately drive higher value for our shareholders. Along those lines, I'd like to reiterate our strategic priorities, which are to deliver consistent and repeatable investment performance, Drive the organization to sustainable net inflows, redeploy our excess capital to generate recurring earnings, Position the firm to reach $5,000,000,000 alternative assets by 2022 and meet our revised expense guidance while continuing to invest in key growth areas. I want to thank everyone on the AGF team for all of their hard work in these challenging times. We will now take your questions. And we have our first question from Gary Ho with Desjardins. Please go ahead, sir. Thanks and good morning. My first question just on the DSD commission line That's been elevated last few quarters. Can you talk about kind of what's going on with your strategic partners? Are they pushing more sales ahead of the DSC band Or any other reasons you can point to? And are you still confident in the gross sales activity post the June 2022 DSC Gary, why don't I start with that and I'm sure Kevin might want to add some other comments. First of all, yes, you'll notice that DSC is a proportion of our total mutual fund growth sales Year over year, Q2 of last year to Q2 of this year really has declined from it was 44% in Q2 of last year and it was 36% in Q2 of this year. There was a bit of an increase over Q1 to Q2, but I think what we're seeing across the board is that the partners we're working with are seeing spectacular growth, taking advantage of the industry growth as well. So they're participating in that. We are Trending downwards, which is the direction we have been noticing obviously for the last number of quarters. And then as we work With our dealers, what we're helping them with as they navigate through the regulatory changes, we're working collaborative with them as they move through the transition away from DSC. And I think what we've seen in the past, other dealers have transitioned with minimal disruption to their business, and we don't expect there to be any material impact to our strategic direction and to that of the dealers we're working with. And then I just want to comment as well, we are also strategically focused on growing the IIROC channel, And we've seen certainly fiscal year to date a growth in gross sales across that channel of 167%. So across the board, we don't have any real concerns with the Yes. And Gary, it's Kevin. I'll just add to that. We've been working with our partners. Are pretty confident that they're going to navigate the change, given the conversations we've had. So, we don't see a large disruption as we get to June of 2022 at all. Perfect. Okay. Thanks. And then my next question, Kevin, while I have you, can you update us on your household on the portfolio positioning side, Kind of views on interest rate, etcetera. And can you also talk a little bit about the institutional pipeline as we look out? Yes, I'll take the first part and then I'll let Judy talk about the institutional piece. But I think most of you guys know me, I'm a little We're cautious about where we are. We've come a long way. The market will tend to move in front of the economies. The economy is catching up now. But we've got a strong first half. There will be volatility as we get into the Q4, I think, probably this summer. So we're positioned within our balanced portfolio sitting on a little more cash. We have Some of our anti beta ETF hedges in those portfolios. So if we get into a drawdown situation, those are instruments that would have a positive return. So to remind you, we used those last year going to COVID. When the market was down 35%, they were up 17%. So we are positioned for a little bit of volatility within the equity side. And on the fixed side, those balanced portfolios remain underweight fixed income. Not sure out of the woods. We think there's probably a backup in rates that does occur. We all have to worry and wait and see if this whole inflation story is transitory. So again, underweight on the fixed piece. As a firm, We're going to be more sensitive to equity volatility, so therefore, the hedge is important there. We probably have less than 20% of our assets in the fixed income side. So unlike others, the backup in rates won't hurt But for our end clients, we're trying to diversify that fixed income experience by thinking about things such as how do we hack up a Fixed income portfolio, if you will, and add new things and you'll see us talk about private credit and roll that out. And I think it's going to be timely as we move into this next 18 month period where rates have to try to figure out how to normalize through an economy that's trying to normalize. And then Judy, maybe you want to talk about the institutional piece. Sure. On the institutional side, certainly, we're encouraged by the momentum in that business. Our pipeline is currently modestly positive. We're encouraged because over the last two quarters, our global U. S. And ESG strategies have all won institutional mandates, and we're particularly excited by a platform that we were put on in the U. S. For 3 of our mandates that Kevin mentioned in his opening remarks. That has already drawn in CAD 100,000,000 in the last 4 months, and that has got a lot of momentum specifically. So we're really encouraged by that. And then just looking forward, certainly, the key strategies among the global U. S. And ESG space continue to outperform their benchmark on a 1 3 year basis, And then the other question I have is just on the dividend increase. Kind of what's the thinking here, 50% free cash flow Payout on a TTM basis, what's the target payout when you look out? And how does the DSC benefit on free cash flow come into play here? Maybe not just on dividend increase side, but also on other capital allocation decisions like buybacks. Yes, maybe I'll start with that Gary and maybe add it to Adrian for some color. We've always had a balanced and disciplined approach on this, on the capital And we've talked a lot about that in the past, which is real approach that says do some buybacks. As you know, if you think about last year, between buybacks and dividends, we returned $70,000,000 of capital with the SIB being that big component of that, that we did in the fall. It's going to be a measured approach to a little bit of dividend, a little bit of buyback and then obviously investing in our future and growth. In terms of the payout ratio, we think about 50% is sort of a Guideline on our policy, clearly as we roll through 2022, our cash flows are going to improve. So it's It's going to be something we'll keep an eye on, but it's going to be a very balanced approach to thinking about all three. I don't know, Adrian, if you want to add to that. Yes, I can just add that definitely looking at the trends in free cash flow is one input into this decision. And then If you look at just the strong balance sheet as well, we've got $26,000,000 in cash, dollars 158,000,000 of long term investments, Debt, we can borrow over $100,000,000 and still stay within one times EBITDA. So, if you kind of pair those both together, The strong free cash flow trends and the strength of our balance sheet, and it just made sense to share a little bit with our shareholders. And Gary, I'd add one more piece to that. As we look forward and we start to think about our business model and some of the trajectories that we're seeing in different things, we have a Fair amount of confidence in some of those businesses right now. So I think it makes sense to start on this path. Okay, got it. And then last question for me, just on the private alts I just noticed this quarter's EBITDA seems a bit low. It was a loss of $500,000 I think the run rate last couple of quarters has been Kind of in the 2 to 3, kind of can you elaborate kind of what went on this quarter and any changes in outlook in terms of Which we should expect on the on that side of the business? Yes, Gary, I can take a shot at that. So yes, as you noted, the alternatives income this quarter was basically flat and it was Pretty much completely due to an adjustment related to foreign currency. So within one of our LPs, U. S. Denominated investments, Canadian dollar rallies and it causes an adjustment related foreign currency. But I think we've been pretty clear Saying that probably could be because of the size of our alternatives business, it's going to be lumpy quarter to quarter. If you think about this business going forward With $150,000,000 or so of investments and limited partnerships, if you Considerably say 8%, 10% returns from those over the longer term. I think you can Count on $3,000,000 to $4,000,000 of earnings coming from the general partners or other related fee arrangements. And then Stock carry on top of that as well. You're probably talking about $15,000,000 to $20,000,000 of EBITDA per year Or $4,000,000 ish per quarter compared to the 0 that we showed you this quarter. So I think you really have to look at that business in terms of the longer term nature. And Cary is especially lumpy when you factor that into the equation. But as we mentioned on our call and In our materials, there's a $2,200,000 number that was earned in a vehicle managed by SAF that had really great returns and that's going to be recorded in Q3. So, Q3, we're already off to a good start for the alternatives platform earnings. Okay. So if I can paraphrase like the delta between the flat to the $3,000,000 to $4,000,000 that was all entirely FX related This quarter? That's right. Okay, got it. Okay, those are my questions. Thanks very much. Thank you. We have our next question from Geoff Kwan with RBC Capital Markets. Hi, good morning. Just had a question just on with the DSC and the low load band coming in Next year in Ontario kind of harmonizing with the rest of the provinces. So the commissions then the commission expense should go to 0 when it goes into effect. And my question is, in your models, like how do you see the trailer fee as a percentage of average AUM Increasing on a yearly basis, just as the AUM migrates more to kind of the full trailer. Yes, Jeff, it's a good question. So effectively, it's difficult to Give you a forecast on the revenue rate and trailers. But I think it's important for us to understand, as I'm sure you do that, The elimination of DSE is basically a temporary benefit to Our cash flow because as you sort of note in your question, there's an offsetting And the trailer expense that kind of creeps in over time. And so when we do our business planning and capital planning and those sorts of things, We absolutely factor that in and we don't we kind of consider that. So all else being equal, the profitability in our business should remain relatively Flat if you adjust for that kind of temporary benefit. Okay. And then just my other question was just on the tax rates. It's been kind of I think consistent for the first half of the year. Just wondering if we should expect or what is your guidance or how we should think about the tax rate for the second half I think it's very similar to Q2. So I would if you want to exact, I would call it 28.5. Okay, great. That's all the questions I had. Thank you. We will take our next question from Graham Ryding with TD Securities. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. Adrian, just to follow-up on that DSE question. So is the right way to think about this is the trailer fee As a percentage of AUM, that should start to trend higher as we sort of move into late 2022 and into 2023 over the course of sort of the next 7 years as your existing DSC funds sort of, I guess, run their course in terms of a lower trailer fee relative to the rest of your book. Is that the right way to think about it? Yes, Graham, thanks for the question. And I don't want to overcomplicate this, but I kind of purposely stayed away from forecasting the trailer rate because Some of the solutions that are on the table as far as replacements for the DSC world It may not be the same products that exist today. And so I think we need to stay away from forecasting what's going to happen On either the revenue line or the trailer line and really just think about it more so from a net basis, right. So from a net basis, We should be relatively stable on the net revenue line over time. And the benefit that we see Coming from the elimination of DSE will sort of reverse over time and we'll track back towards And are you alluding to sort of increased Adoption of F Class or ETFs would have an impact on that trailer fee over time. That's probably Better way to think about it. And again, I don't want to divulge some of the stuff that we're working on that's not public yet, but that's a better way to look at it. Yes, yes, Graham. Okay. Can you give us a little bit of color on just maybe what you're targeting with the private credit LP with SAF In terms of the size that you're targeting for that fund? And then also you mentioned that you're Launch alongside like a trust version that's more applicable for retail. What's the should think about the sales process there as just sort of like an incremental, your wholesale team goes out and just tries to target that fund. Is that the right way to think about that? Yes, Graeme, thanks for that. We are looking at it as sort of an incremental growing momentum sort of Asset gathering exercise in terms of the product. It is really focused. We're really focusing it on as a retail product. And so the team has been out. We are getting that product onto dealer shelves. We were successful just yesterday learning that we are on one of the larger Platforms and once it gets through all the approval processes, we do see this just as another product that will be very attractive to the retail investor. And probably looking at I'd like to see $250,000,000 a year. Just again, this is an evergreen product that just Okay, understood. But there is an institutional fundraise along as well? You're looking to raise money both? Yes, it's available for Yes, it is available for institutional, probably more attractive to private family offices or Smaller Institutions, because the LP does feed into the Evergreen vehicle. And as you You may know about the structure of the product. The LP provides for a liquidity sleeve, which makes it attractive for the retail investor to be have flexibility with redemptions, which I think people would like to would benefit from and they are I think they'll find their product quite unique. Okay. Got it. And then the 3rd Instar Infrastructure Fund, just what do you think in there in terms of timing and potential size? Yes. I mean, Graham, it's Kevin. Timing hasn't been announced on that yet. My guess is it's probably somewhere in the next year or so. And I'd say, just typically in the industry, and not specific to Instar, but you typically target a size of at least your last Those guys have been terrific managers of those funds. And so my guess is they'll have some success on that launch, at least a fund of the same size, but they haven't targeted that yet nor I had a guess when I say we're probably somewhere in the next year or so. Okay. And then obviously a big uptick in your mutual fund gross sales when you look on a year over year basis. Are there any funds in particular that are doing heavy lifting there or is it broad based across the mandates that you mentioned? Yes. I mean, Graham, as you know, we've had success with pretty broad global sustainable growth, Global Select, which is a concentrated global strategy, total return bond, which is a really defensive bond strategy, global convertible, which helps drive yield on the fixed income side, American Growth, SMID cap, so we've had it, it's been brought. And so it's not and they're in key categories with really strong performance. So it's really been the breadth of it and the channel breadth is equally as impressive, not just again one place that we're selling, but really across the board. Okay. And my last question would just be the anti beta product that you have, are you seeing any Increased interest in that now that we're sort of perhaps in a stage in the cycle of the market where Being more defensive is appropriate or perhaps as your sales team, are they promoting that product a little bit more right now, just given where we are? Yes, it's interesting, Graham. People do use it tactically, right? Some smaller institutions in the U. S. Are using it tactically. Just to remind everybody, it's a market neutral ETF that shorts the highest beta names in the market and goes along a basket of low beta names, right? And so on a market Fine. High beta names tend to go down asymmetrically worse. So 10% decline would see a typical drawdown of 17% on high beta. So that short basket really works for you. What's happened over the last year and a half as we've come to the pandemic, the high beta names have actually reclassified into the cyclical stuff that's More volatile, so think banks, think energy, etcetera. So to the extent that people believe that, that has played its way through and that, that volatile shift in the value is over, If we hit into a market drawdown, like similar to the ones we saw a week or so ago, you'll see that product do very well. So you're starting to see people tactically use it. We saw some pretty good sized crates earlier in the month. So my expectation is when you look at some of the option books right now out there, just Capital Markets, some people are starting to position for what looks to be a little choppier summer. So I would expect that we'll see some pickup there. Okay, great. That's it for me. Thank you. And thank you, sir. And we have no further questions in queue. We would like to thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. AGF's next earnings call will take place on September 29, 2021. You may now disconnect.