Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. Q1 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Harley Ulmer, Global Corporate Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Drew. Good morning, and thank you to everyone for joining the call. My name is Harley Ulmer, Global Corporate Treasurer of AGT Food and Ingredients Inc. With me today on the call are Murad Al-Katib, our President and CEO, and our Board Chair, Bill McFarland, who will provide some brief introductory comments. After a brief presentation, we'll take questions with the call ending by 9:50 Eastern Time. We'll be commenting on our Q1 2026 results and outlook with the assumption that you have read the Q1 earnings press release, MD&A, and financial statements. A slide presentation which supports today's comments is posted on our website, and we encourage participants to access the slides and follow along with our presentation. Before we begin, I would like to make some comments about forward-looking information.
In yesterday's news release and on slide two of the presentation that we have posted to our website, you will find cautionary notes in that regard. We do claim their protection for any forward-looking information that we might disclose on this conference call today. With that, I will now turn it over to Bill McFarland for his introductory comments.
Thanks, Harley, thank you to everyone for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that our Q1 reporting as a public company highlights the strength and resilience of AGT's business. The Middle East war created some short-term challenges that management met head-on, we delivered a good Q1 2026 result. Murad, Huseyin, and the team are committed to executing our business plan and growth objectives, the positive adjusted net earnings and adjusted free cash flow results in Q1 2026 compared to 2025 show the progress being made, management's nimbleness, and the direction of travel going forward. We are in a very strong financial position. Our expected free cash flow will comfortably fund future capital expenditure commitments, dividends, and will allow us to support the stock buyback under the NCIB, which was approved by the board and is subject to TSX approval.
The board declared an initial quarterly dividend because we are confident in management's ability to deliver strong and growing EBITDA and free cash flow in fiscal 2026 compared to 2025. We appreciate that our share price is undervalued today, trading at approximately a 6 x multiple of 2025 adjusted EBITDA. We are also optimistic that over time, AGT's intrinsic value will be better appreciated and understood by the market, and our shareholders will be rewarded accordingly. I'll now turn the call over to Murad to review the quarter in more detail.
Thank you very much, Bill. Good morning, everybody, excited to be on this first true quarterly call with our new results. I'm gonna take you through and refer to our slides. If you wanna follow along, I'm gonna start with slide number four in our presentation. Q1 demonstrated the resilience of our platform in the face of war in the Middle East. Although this region is important region for demand, the actual stoppage of shipments was isolated to only a few ports, the most important for our business being Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates. It's important to understand that like any shock of the economy or the market, a regional war was accompanied by shock and worry about its implications. As time passes, markets are resilient and adjust, and we're seeing that.
Shipping stopped, new services have opened up, like new port services in alternative ports that are not reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, like Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. AGT's deep supply chain relationships are a huge competitive advantage. We found new ports for our shipments, utilizing Mersin, Turkey, and ports like Mundra in India to ensure that our product is either reaching clients or ready to reach clients as soon as the conflict is resolved. I'm happy to report that normalized operations have resumed in Q2. We do expect that the shifting of earnings due to a slowdown in shipments and general market reaction to the trade crisis is largely understood now, and shipments have resumed normalized patterns. The Q1 financial statements show all the non-cash items related to our IPO. We expect normalized financial results for the rest of the year.
All this noise is washed through our statements. They're non-recurring and non-cash. We expect the financial results for the whole year will rebound. We expect to make up materially all of the shortfall from the quarter, about CAD 8 million of adjusted EBITDA. There's less impact on the packaged foods. Some impacts that were the result of some shipment slowdowns due to freight uncertainties and worries about shipping costs. It's not uncommon to see supply chains disrupted temporarily when there's a major global political event like war. I will tell you that shipping has resumed. We see the adjusted EBITDA risk if the war continues the rest of the year as minimal. We expect losses related to shipment delays or port closures will ultimately be offset by new routes that will ultimately deliver food to these regions.
Multimodal services are beginning with truck to container to ship to truck becoming a new way of shipping to avoid the Strait of Hormuz and to get product to the consumers that rely on these staples for daily consumption. Importantly, underlying operating performance and cash generation was strong, reinforced by our global diversified business. We're managing through heightened global uncertainty by leaning on our diversification geographically by customer type and by end market. A key note here is that the impacts of the war to the pasta and packaged foods business have been nominal. Value-added processing with very diversified lines of business, showing resiliency in our chickpea, bean, rice, lentils, and pea business. Heightened demand in the countries where lanes are open are being observed in Q 2 and beyond. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Yemen. Regular demand into Europe, South America, and markets like China and India are buying products.
The Turkish platform has been a key asset for this time, and we expect robust demand for the rest of the year. I want to remind those on the call that Turkey has famously been for many years a food corridor for the region. With its land border connectivity to Iran, Iraq, Syria, and its close proximity to North African markets in the Mediterranean, the Turkish asset platform is a strategic asset base for today, for tomorrow, and for our future. The policies of the government of Turkey are encouraging Turkey to be part of the societal solution to food security in the region, and our dominant position in this market will serve us well today and beyond. Our packaged foods platform continues to expand its reach and customer relationships while leveraging new manufacturing capacity.
Tomorrow, I will visit Minot to see the new Better For You pasta line and our new high-speed robotic packaging line running at full capacity. Plant-based protein and dietary fiber are gaining steam as affordable and tasty alternatives. Our thesis continues that pasta, snacks, breakfast, and convenience meals are showing robust sales fundamentals, and I'm pleased with our progress in building our leadership position in the market. Global retailers and brands are responding with more orders and expanding commercial relationships. Our distribution segment benefited from our disciplined margin-focused approach and growing adjusted EBITDA by CAD 4.5 million in the current year, benefiting from our global reach and the supporting internal operations of origination and trade execution and freight and logistics. All of this supports the core IPO thesis, strong cash flow, deleveraged balance sheet, and long-term value creation. We are on track with our IPO story.
I wanna flip you over to the next slide if you're following along, slide five. A key differentiator for AGT is margin consistency across commodity cycles, which is supported by our diversified footprint and integrated supply chain. For AGT, resiliency means we have minimal impact on pasta and packaged foods. Commodity price is a small % of the overall sales price, and the demand profile of the business is heavily weighted in North America, Asia, and Turkey, all regions not affected fundamentally by the conflict. In our value-added processing, there is an impact in the areas of the business where less value add is being provided to the product. However, in those parts of the business as well as the distribution segment, our model targets an absolute dollar margin per ton. We continue to focus on back-to-back sales that give margin certainty.
We are not interested in being a commodity company, and this quarter shows that discipline with a material reduction in revenue with consistent earnings. For those who have followed our story for years as a public company before and have delved into us as a new public company, the reduction in revenue of CAD 200 plus million with flat earnings shows the resiliency of our platform and shows the laser focus under which we're executing margin opportunities in food, not commodities. Food security and staple demanded pulses provide base cash flows, while higher value-added products will continue to enhance our margins over time. This resiliency will be enhanced as the packaged foods and ingredients segment continues to grow in absolute dollar volume and absolute percentage as a percentage of our overall business.
On growth, we remain disciplined, scaling the platforms where we have structural advantages rather than pursuing volume for volume's sake. This is the advantage of a global footprint. We're nimble, and we're able to pivot. I was in India two weeks ago. I visited the plant, our new pasta manufacturing plant, and saw the construction is going well. We have interested customers that will be serviced from this facility from Canada, the U.S., Europe, and Asia. We're targeting retailer visits to our new India plant to begin in Q4 2026 to begin audit of the new plants. I can tell you we have excitement from major global retailers on this project, and India will be a high-quality, highly competitive logistical and price advantage jurisdiction for the supply of global pasta to the growing demand of the global consumer.
The pasta and Better For You platforms are good examples. Capital-light modular expansions, CAD 10 million or less with three to four year paybacks that can be built as demand arises. The platform is built on strong customer relationships, growth and attractive returns. We will build it as they come. We will not build it and hope they will come. They are coming. The platform is performing to our expectation. We're seeing the sales pipeline materialize to our expectation. We're financially strong with little debt, significant free cash flow, allowing us to fund growth, pay our dividends and maintaining the flexibility while maintaining our low leverage. This is a fundamental pursuit of this company, its financial strength. I'm excited as the IPO story is also resonating with our customers. It's not only about our investors and shareholders. Customers see our strength.
Through our contacts and discussions with global retail players and global food manufacturers, the message is clear: We're here for the long term. We have great knowledge and innovation. We have a track record for success in developing and commercializing new innovations in food, and we're prepared to invest to grow capacity with our supply chain partners. We have a strong, committed partner in Fairfax and a management team who are vested in the business long term. This reality post IPO is advancing our commercial relationships and is leading many progressive conversations. Our momentum is growing and our pivot to packaged foods, including pasta and Better For You value-added pulses, is clear to the market as a whole. I'm gonna flip you over to slide number six, our Q1 performance highlights. We're pleased with the quality of earnings and cash flow generation in the quarter.
Adjusted net earnings and adjusted free cash flow both grew year- over- year, reflecting strong operating discipline and margin management across the business. Adjusted free cash flow grew by 113% compared to the prior year when the impact of the rail sale is removed from free cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow conversion was strong, increasing to 42% from 19% in the prior year, supported by margin stability and reductions in leverage. Cash flow is how we measure the management performance and the management progress towards our business plan. Looking to fiscal 2026, we see that even when we consider seasonality into account, adjusted free cash flow will be greater than CAD 100 million and growing. This is a compelling investment thesis in a difficult time in many industries around the world.
AGT and our sector is defensive in a time of global uncertainty. Importantly, we maintained our adjusted EBITDA contribution and margins despite the reduction in revenue. The impact of the conflict in the Middle East, low food security sales, combined with weather challenges in South Africa, affected our quarter by about CAD 8 million. The quarter was further impacted by a one-week Ramadan shutdown that occurs in our factory in Turkey for fumigation and maintenance every year. This year it was in Q1. Last year, the shutdown occurred in Q2 with an approximate adjusted EBITDA impact of CAD 2 million. It's important for everyone to understand why revenue is not a key performance metric for AGT. Lower commodity prices were expected, and the result of the strong 2025 North American harvest has led to this commodity price reduction.
Big picture, in a big part of the value-added processing and the entire distribution segment, sales contracts factor in the cost of product, plus, as I mentioned, the target dollar margin per ton of sale. The profit element does not change dramatically if the volumes are held constant, revenues widely fluctuate over the cycle. Of course, the commodity prices are based on external global factors, including weather and crops. Margin percent will rise with falling prices as revenues fall. As we continue our evolution of product mix and value-added and distribution, we'll see revenues fluctuate. This is normal. What we target is consistent margin and cash flow. I repeat what I said earlier. We won't do business for the sake of showing growth and turnover. It's pointless.
All of our performance measures are based on free cash flow, low leverage, and frankly, we target that margin growth should outpace our revenue growth. This is normal in food companies. As a reminder, AGT does experience seasonality in its operations, more notably in value-added processing and distribution, and quarterly performance is not indicative of full- year performance, with the H1 of the year accounting for less earnings and the H2 with Q4 being the strongest quarter in all segments. I wanna flip you over now to slide number seven. Slide number seven, you know, gives us our deep dive on our Packaged Food and Ingredient Segment. Packaged Foods and Ingredient continues to be our fastest-growing segment, with adjusted EBITDA margin at 12% in 2026. This continues our solid progression of margins in this key business unit towards our target of around 14% by 2029.
Turkey performed well with operationally strong pasta sales and margins, despite some short-term shipping slowdowns that were prompted by customers concerned about rising freight costs during the war. We also executed the planned one-week shutdown, as I mentioned, and the shutdown being aligned with the key religious holiday is smart business for us as we lose production days due to the holiday already. This is seen by our management as the best time to get these key hygiene and maintenance items completed. These items are key to maintaining our growth in the highest quality markets in the world, like Japan, Malaysia, and China. Volumes in pasta were consistent with the previous year with these effects, and we've observed recovery in export and domestic volumes in Q2, with material increases from Q1 to Q2 shipping already in the first five weeks of the quarter.
We believe that volumes and earnings will be consistent with the growth forecast that we have in our business plan. For our pasta business growth, we see expanding relationships in the United States, Canada, Europe, Japan, and China, and we do expect to have the new pasta lines in Turkey running at 70% utilization by the end of Q4. Adjusting for the Ramadan shutdown and combined with the decrease in South Africa results, which again are temporary related to a weather event, revenues in the segment increased by 3% and adjusted EBITDA increased by 5%. We expect this pace to accelerate in the back half of the year. In Q1, compared to last year, you know, we are in line with our expectations.
In Turkey, our pasta brands like Pastavilla and Arbella showed strong growth of approximately 30% for the quarter 2026 Q1 year- over- year, while the category in Turkey only grew 1%. This is a credit to our strong retailer relationships and exceptional quality of our products. We see our brands and the brands of our customers continuing to grow in all corners of the globe. It's amazing to see the strength of our supply chain fueling the sales of our customers and our processing operations. The U.S. Better For You pasta segment also grew. The new line became operational in Q1 2026, with March being a strong month. In fact, March 2026 was the strongest month in our operations since 2023. April is showing results that will be even stronger than the March results.
Expanding volumes in both store brand sales and North America Better For You pasta brands in major retailers like Whole Foods and Costco and in food service is growing our utilization. Our veggie pasta continued its strong sales in U.S. retail, advancing into the top ten in the category in Whole Foods USA, according to Nielsen data. Across our other retail and private label platforms, performance was solid with our Canadian retail brands, including Clic and Tamam at Loblaws, performing well, and growth seen in other Canadian retail channels such as Loblaws, Costco, and Walmart. South African planting volumes and sales were affected by flooding and excessive rains. However, we expect 2026 results on a full- year basis to recover as they have strong order books and strong sales pipelines forward and the weather issues have resolved for now.
Finally, our capital projects are meeting budgeted dollars and timelines. As we mentioned, I visited India two weeks ago. Construction of the India pasta facility is progressing on schedule and on budget. We hear concerns about the Middle East war and freight. I want to assure everyone our contracts are fixed prices, our equipment is shipped and on route, and our budgets are on track, and the project is going better than our expectations in terms of timing. The construction of the facility is expected to end before the end of 2026. In the U.S., we completed the Better For You pasta line, as I mentioned, and projects related to expanding our capacity to deliver pulse-based premixes and Better For You manufacturing brands like pasta, flour blends, and snack flour blends, are also on track for completion this year.
We remain confident we're gonna see positive results for these investments towards the end of this year and into 2027. As I mentioned, sales and margins in March 2026 were at the highest level in years, and the positive trajectory continues into Q2. We're progressing rapidly in the business, but again, we will continue our laser focus. Going to slide number eight on the value-added processing. Lower pulse and grain prices followed the strong 2025 harvest by an estimated CAD 110 million impact on our revenue. Commodity price deceleration caused that contraction. As I stated earlier, commodity price changes generally have a small impact on the absolute dollars of adjusted EBITDA normally result in increased EBITDA margins, which we saw this quarter.
Lower commodity prices also result in lower receivables, lower inventory, and less trade financing, which is absolutely less cash out the door. We see this as a very positive impact for the food business. We also proactively manage our product mix in the segment, and in Canada and Australia, we saw strong margins on fava beans, broad beans, lentils, and chickpeas. Our resilience on lower margin products like yellow peas continues to decrease. I'm sorry, our reliance on those commodities continues to decrease. The Middle East conflict delayed food security shipments in Q1, but medium-term demand remains intact and orders are in the pipeline, with the expectation of full-year food security revenues to be consistent with the prior year. The frequency of World Food Programme tenders is increasing.
Contracts that were awarded at the end of 2025, which were among some of our largest contracts in the history of our company, are under execution at the end of Q1 and into Q2. Excuse me. Our integrated global footprint continues to be our competitive advantage, allowing us to redirect volumes and protect our profitability. We expect volumes sold in this segment to be strong over the rest of the year as Middle East shipments are rerouted and farmers in our origination jurisdictions like Canada and Australia begin to sell their withheld inventory in advance of a new crop harvest. We are upon seeding again in North America, and remaining stocks will have to be liquidated prior to the new harvest. We've signed large orders covering the rest of the year, and agencies and governments are watching inventory and price inflation at staples closely.
We expect major food security programs, not only in the Middle East, but around the world. Any time we see increases in freight and disruptions in supply chains, governments wake up and recognize that full tummies and affordable food are keys to societal living in all the jurisdictions around the world. The estimated impact of the Middle East conflict on adjusted EBITDA in the quarter in this segment was around CAD 5 million. We expect that a large part of this will be recaptured throughout the rest of the year. We remain in close contact with government tenders, food security, and aid agencies. I want, you know, our investors to know we are not the last call when it comes to large contracts and food security in our commodities.
We are the first call of governments and agencies around the world due to our scale, our competitiveness, our quality, and our ability to execute in a time of crisis. I'm gonna turn it over now to Harley and take a couple of sips of coffee while Harley gives you a little bit on the financial side.
Thank you, Murad. I'll briefly discuss our financial position building on what Murad's already discussed. Post-IPO, AGT now has an equity base of close to CAD 1.2 billion and a very strong balance sheet, giving us the ability to deliver on our modular capital and growth strategy and move forward with confidence. Those of you that joined us at the year-end call, you'll see the start transformation. We now have nominal debt, strong free cash flow, as Murad noted. We intend to fund the business needs out of free cash flow in the future. This approach is not only good for the business, but will be great for our shareholders going forward. AGT is now operating with low leverage with adjusted net debt to EBITDA of just 0.54x .
This provides substantial financial flexibility to allow us to grow and adapt to changing global dynamics. The reported loss under GAAP in the quarter was impacted by one-time non-recurring and non-cash IPO-related items totaling CAD 85 million. These were primarily related to share-based compensation and accretion interest on the settlement of the sponsor notes. These charges were adjusted out in arriving at adjusted net earnings, which is reconciled to the financial statements in the MD&A. As Bill referenced previously, we are excited to announce the first quarterly dividend to be paid on July 15th, 2026 to the shareholders of record at the end of June 30th, 2026 of CAD 0.05 per share. AGT expects quarterly dividends to continue in the future quarters. They'll be reviewed by the board periodically.
Our goal is to provide shareholders with a combination of dividends and share price appreciation equating to a strong shareholder return. Additionally, as noted earlier as well, AGT's board approved the filing of a normal course issuer bid for its common shares subject to TSX approval, which will provide AGT the ability to purchase shares for cancellation. Our goal is to selectively support the stock as appropriate rather than spend significant capital on a share buyback program. As Murad noted earlier, we expect to have more than CAD 100 million in free cash flow in 2026, which gives us adequate cash to support capital expenditures and dividends and gives us adequate funds to strategically support the share price without relevering. Finally, I would point out to you that you will see hyperinflation reconciliations on pages 15 and 16, 17 of the MD&A.
We have not included these impacts in our presentation today as the impact is nominal and wanted to note again that the mechanical application of hyperinflation impacts the net earnings of AGT. I would like to emphasize that the impacts are non-cash and are moved from the adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow calculations. We manage the business on a pre-hyperinflation basis. Murad will now join us for some closing comments and the final slides.
Perfect. So again, to go to slide 10 as our wrap up, look, we're just gonna continue to focus on reliability and growth of our adjusted net earnings, EBITDA, and free cash flow. More specifically, again, you know, everyone knows our plan. Grow the pasta business through utilizing the expanded Turkish pasta capacity where we're seeing strong domestic and export demand and attractive margins. We're gonna continue to scale our U.S. Better For You platform, particularly the pulse-based pasta, by getting high utilization for the recently completed line, driving sales in the breakfast and snack categories for the additional Canadian extrusion capacity, and continuing to expand retailer and branded food company relationships. We're gonna complete the India pasta facility, the Minot expansions, and we're planning the staging of further expansions to meet the projected pipeline demand in this segment.
We won't overbuild, we can't disrupt the momentum that we see in sales growth. In the value added, we're gonna focus firmly on adjusted EBITDA growth with a diversified high-value product mix, improve our plant efficiencies, and provide support to our food security customers and governments around the world. I remind you, our target to expand margin in this segment with its large size, a one percentage improvement in overall margin leads to a CAD 20 million free cash flow improvement. As we grow, we wanna look to continue to build the skill of our team, enhance the team with new recruits, strengthen our system to enhance our growth trajectory.
All these priorities are aligned around a single objective, building a strong, resilient business that generates strong cash flow, compounds shareholder value over the long term. I want to assure you, Fairfax and management are very large shareholders, as you know. We are aligned, we are shoulder to shoulder, we remain optimistic, excited, and we will execute. With that, I'm happy to take your questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. You are asked to limit yourself to one question and a follow-up, then rejoin the queue if you wish to ask additional questions. The first question comes from Kyle McPhee with ATB Cormark. Please go ahead.
Hello, everyone. Thanks for all the comments. I just wanted to talk about the India pasta plant project. Sounds like timing and the budget's all on track. Can you help us quantify the type of revenue ramp up you would expect from a facility like this? You know, what is the revenue capacity at the facility you're building and how long do you see the utilization ramp up period going, you know, based on the offtake and demand visibility you may already have? Any color around that, please?
We're on target, Kyle, to be, you know, commissioning late in the year. Again, you're gonna start to see material contributions of cash flow and earnings, you know, starting in 2027. We're building three manufacturing lines and, you know, we have roughly about 14 tons per hour of capacity. You know, when we look at that, you know, on an annual basis, you know, we'll end up, you know, roughly about, you know, call it somewhere around 85,000 metric tons. You'll be somewhere in the range of about, you know, call it $75 million in revenue through the ramp up of that.
We're likely targeting, you know, to get to Again, our target pasta lines are not something that you start to run and you shut down and you restart. When you start to run a pasta line, you should be running that line 24 hours a day, seven days a week, only for shutdown on maintenance and, you know, material holidays and nothing else. You know, we will target to get to 70% utilization by the end of the 2027 period and be at full utilization by the end of 2028. In the manufacturing footprint, Kyle, we have six manufacturing lines of semolina capacity, that's the durum wheat milling capacity, but only three manufacturing lines.
That allows us, if the plan goes according to our plan, we will then be in 2028 building new lines for 2029 and 2030. That'll take us a four-year cycle to kind of ramp up. You know, again, material contributions, when you're looking at that, we look at the India pasta with the Turkish pasta running around that, you know, 12% EBITDA margin, we expect that we could improve that in India.
you know, that'll help us to get towards that Better For You, plus the India pasta will help us to get to that 14% plus target by 2029 in the packaged food and ingredient segment. When we look at that, you know, particular side, again, you know, 4 or 5 million of contribution per year over 2027 and 2028 will give that plant a good, you know, call it CAD 10 million contribution. It's going to be a material part of that growth trajectory in 2027 and 2028.
I think, Murad, just so everyone's clear, the $75 million you referenced is the full capacity of the plant. We don't expect that in year[crosstalk].
That's right. That's right.
It'll ramp up.
The $ 75, exactly.
Yep.
Yeah. Go ahead, Kyle. A follow-up?
I'll leave it there. I'll pass the line. Thanks for those comments.
All right. Thanks, Kyle.
The next question comes from Luke Hannan with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Murad, I just wanted to follow up on the value-added business. It sounds like things are very durable and stable as things stand today there. When it comes to, I guess, specifically on fuel and then any additional freight charges that may be incurred as a result of ships staying in ports for a longer period of time than expected, Just wanted to confirm, those costs are eventually borne by the customers?
Yeah, absolutely. Now, just to be very clear, we don't have any ships sitting in ports, delayed or anything like that. You know, our containerized shipments have all been dealt with in terms of rerouting to safe ports or rerouted to customers. When I look at the materiality of that, you know, it was literally, you know, Luke, maybe, you know, CAD 1 million, CAD 2 million worth of additional freight charges, largely which are borne by the customer. Sometimes with very large, good customer relationships, we could share some of that a little bit.
When I look at those ancillary costs and the current pipeline that was affected by the crisis, and I look at the gains we have in other markets like Turkey, where we had large amounts of inventory and the premiums we're receiving for prompt shipments to fill those gaps, we're likely to be ahead, not behind. On new contracts, we're being very clear. The one thing I wanna make sure I reiterate is demand elasticity of these products, these are staple foods. You know, Luke, when you look at a staple food profile, your risk on not being able to pass on the ancillary freight charges or increases are that it's affecting your sector and not other substitutes. Freight is affecting every single food product in the world. Our products are still affordable, cheap staples that people consume every day.
We say it's not chewing gum, right? That you have to decide, do you wanna buy chewing gum or not? Do I wanna buy a sweater or not? Do I wanna buy, you know, running shoes or not? It's do I wanna buy my lentils and chickpeas to eat my basic food? I'm gonna buy them. You know, we're seeing again an ability to manage that. Now, again, we are realists that oil prices and freight are both commodities. Oil and freight are commodities. When the conflict resolves, we expect freight will rebound down to more normalized levels in a quick way. In the value-added segment, our contracts are very much spot. Spot contracts are priced on today's freight, and so from that perspective, we don't see large needs.
You mentioned also Luke, I hope as analysts who have covered us or are familiar with our company, you know, I mentioned in my comments, you know, CAD 200 million reduction in revenue with consistent earnings. Everybody should realize one thing. This is not the AGT of the past that was heavily reliant only on red lentils on one commodity. We have a diversified book of global sales to packagers, canners, and retailers who need product to feed their consumer demand. That's a totally different ballgame than what we used to do, and our earnings showed that resiliency.
Understood. Thanks, Murad. I'll pass the line.
Thank you.
The next question comes from John Zamparo with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Good morning. I think you said you expect to fully make up the shortfall of CAD 8 million in EBITDA loss from Q1 into the rest of the year. I just wanna clarify, is that also the case if we get a continuation of the current conditions in the Middle East?
You know what, John? I mean, listen, I have to be very honest. You know, there's a resumption. I mean, multimodal shipping is happening. I mean, Jebel Ali port is closed. Now, you know, we're able to ship to King Abdullah Port, then it goes by truck to another port, which goes across to the UAE or goes by truck. You know, product into that region is now starting to flow. The government of Abu Dhabi is actually sending vessels to India to take product into the region now, you know, vessels that are owned by the government. These are not, again, as I mentioned, these are not luxury items. They are necessary items that are gonna flow. We're seeing again the other side of the world, let's say our pasta sales, everything is going normally now, right?
I mean, people adjust to the freight. The freight is a reality. You know, the biggest cost, John, for a retailer is not the freight cost. It's a very small percentage of the price on the shelf. The biggest cost to a retailer is the empty shelf. That's the biggest cost. We're seeing, you know, again, the makeup is gonna happen. I mean, a large part of that was just delays that are shipping in Q2 and Q3. You know, we're not, you know, kind of saying, "Oh, we hope it's gonna get made up." We have visibility that it's gonna get made up. Even with a prolonged conflict. What we're seeing is the rest of the world is taking product and, you know, ultimately we're very, very busy and the pipeline is full, ultimately our sales pipeline.
I mean, these are large government contracts and food security contracts which weren't shipping in the beginning of a war that are now shipping. We have product going from the United Nations into Ashdod to the Gaza refugees. It's moving. Ashdod Port is open, right? Saudi ports are open. Yemen ports are open. The ground border with Turkey and Iraq is wide open. Even in the conflict, the Turkey-Iran border is open. From that perspective, you know what? It's a crazy time, food's gonna continue. Always it will find its way to the market, John.
Okay. Thank you for that. A quick one on the NCIB. When is the earliest y ou think you can have this in place from a regulatory perspective?
You know what? Again, the TSX has to approve, it'll likely take, you know, two to three weeks for it to be in place. Again, we'll let our lawyers deal with that. You know, as Harley mentioned, you know, the great side of this company is that we've got very low leverage, and we've got very strong free cash flow growth. You know, again, you know, obviously, our preference will be for investors to recognize where the stock is at and how undervalued it is, and for investors to take care of what needs to be taken care of. The NCIB makes sense. I mean, we're long-term shareholders, myself included, and I'm saying as large shareholders, at this point, we'll get it in place and we'll use it strategically.
The next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, guys. Thanks for the time. Murad, I think you touched on this, but I just wanted to focus a little more. You know, your market position in Turkey in particular, do you think it's allowing you to grow, share or perform better than average and relative to other partners or other players out there in times of crisis like this? I'm just trying to get a sense for whether, you know, some share gains can be had here in this type of environment.
You know, that's a great question, Steve. You know, there's two elements to that. One is the processing capacity and scale and our quality, but two, our access to financing and capital, you know, compared to, you know, our smaller regional competitors, it is a massive competitive advantage. Then the diversification with the packaged foods contributing such a strong free cash flow all the time, you know, you ultimately are definitely we're making gains. When we look at food security and what's gonna happen in the next 18-24 months, these are large contracts, right? You know, there's only a handful of companies in the world who would have a chance to execute these types of contracts.
Yes, our position is growing and Turkey's importance is growing, and the Turkish government's policies are recognizing that the world's supply chains are gonna shift. It will take a long time for the UAE to get back to where it was. We see Turkey as a very strategic point. We see our supply chain from Australia and Canada into India, and India feeding into the region as being an important part. You know, we also wanna, you know I kind of see right now, Steve, all the efforts of the last five years to diversify Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, South America, our domestic U.S. and our European book is booming. Again, I wanna tell you, we've got now, oil inflation, right? Inflation is rising. Our products are affordable.
We're seeing retail pull on pasta, pulses at retail as moving forward. Interestingly, in the U.S. market, Steve, you know, one of the knocks on the Better For You category was how expensive it was. It's interesting now people are talking about snacks and pasta on the Better For You as affordable protein alternatives to meat. We're starting to see affordability coming into one of our marketing strengths. That's gonna really take up demand. We're really excited about that.
I think, Murad, one of the other points, and you raised this yesterday in our meetings, was that regional governments are, again, were woken up again to the supply chain exposure that was out there, and they're looking to really focus on enhancing their local stocks and strategic stocks of food. We see that as, you know, a good support for the food security programs that we have, where governments are now being, you know, actively looking to build up those stocks strategically in their region so that they can not be susceptible to some of these supply chain disruptions that have been, you know, are right in their face right now.
Yeah, that's gonna be, Steve Hansen, what I would call the significant upside to our forecast over the next two years, is we're gonna see governments build buffer stocks in our staple foods, and we're gonna be well equipped to react to that. Follow on, Steve.
That's great. Yeah, that's great color. One follow-up is just on your comments around the Better For You category ramping March, and I think even April, you suggested. Is that just incremental capacity, Murad, or is that a function of the products themselves gaining sort of incremental traction with the customers? It's probably a combination of both, I suppose. I'm trying to get [crosstalk]
It's a combination of both, Steve. We're seeing the milling capacity and the fractionation and flour milling side ramping up in utilization, which is great because it's sitting there underutilized. Then the new extrusion capacity, you know, it's ramping up quick. You know, we also said to you know, that we have room to add new lines. Our lead times are, you know, call it six to nine months. Maybe it's not an accident that I'm visiting tomorrow because things are going really well. I wanna go see it myself, Huseyin, and Gulcin, who heads up our Global Pasta Business. We're all going together to Minot to go see what's going on because the sales pull is material, and we're excited about the momentum that we're seeing with the retailer.
Part of that is on the IPO roadshow I said the Nielsen data on how our pasta is selling in U.S. retail, I used to call that, Steve, the golden ticket, right? That is evidence to retailers of how our product sells at retail. Affordability, taste, and texture. Don't forget, that's what sells food: affordability, taste, and texture. We nailed it, and we're seeing sales pipelines growing as a result. You know, you're gonna see it. It is product mix a bit. It's utilization of the existing capacity. It, you know, it's also in general, customers' volumes are growing. Again, part of that is people want protein, people want dietary fiber, and meat's really expensive, and we're seeing alternative proteins growing.
The next question comes from Ryan Neal with TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Morning, everyone. This is Ryan standing in for Derrick, who's just on another call. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple for me on the macro environment. How do you guys view the timing and pace of volume normalization in food security if the Middle Eastern conflict is resolved in the shorter term?
Well, you know, first of all, Ryan, I don't think that the food security sales are dependent on the resolution of the Middle East conflict. You know, again, that, you know, when I look at it, other governments in the region, North Africa, Middle East, you know, even just around the world in general, are looking at strategic buffer stocks. We have visibility on large contracts that we've already been awarded in markets like Algeria and Iraq and the United Nations programs, which are growing. From that perspective, we see that ramp up in normalization as inevitably happening quickly over the next couple of quarters. Again, we're not hopeful. These are contracts that we have in our award already. We're now into execution.
It sounds like I didn't do anything but travel 'cause I was also in Turkey last week. I was in India, I was in Turkey, and now I'm going to the U.S. In Turkey last week, you know, I can tell you that the food security side of our business was, you know, extremely robust. I saw a single day where I believe we set a record for shipping out of our gate, you know, in terms of any volume I've ever seen in the history of our company. The pasta side, you know, all that pull that got kind of delayed in March 'cause people were worried about the war and the rest of the world is all shipping. Good robust shipping, going on in all our segments.
Okay.
The next question-
Go on. Follow on, Ryan?
Yeah.
O kay.
Just a follow on for me.
Yeah.
Are there any contingency plans in place if the conflict persists longer than expected, and would that affect your guidance at all?
To be very honest, Ryan, the conflict continuing longer, we're already set. I mean, all we had to do was deal with the cargo that was floating. The world is now a place where there's a conflict. My contingency plan is South America, Europe, you know, Asia, India, the Med region, like North Africa, and the land border that Turkey has and the alternative ports that are all open today are all buying cargo. You know, we're expecting that, you know, again, the region is getting worried because they're short of food.
We're expecting that, you know, no matter with a prolonged conflict, demand is gonna continue to be robust. Our supply chain's set. We have supply chain depth with relationships all over the world. If a company was built for a conflict like this, it's AGT. You know, we spent 25 years to build that global integrated supply chain, and we're ready to rock and roll. Next question. Hello?
Yes. The next question comes from Zachary Evershed with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Congrats on the quarter.
Thanks, Zach.
I was hoping you could give us a bit more color on the ramp up so far of the lines at Minot and the new capacity in Turkey, maybe in terms of retailer wins or new customers helping fill the new capacity.
Let's start with Minot. Again, Zach, in all of these ramp-ups, in particular in the Better For You, you know, again, on our roadshow, we did kind of talk about some of the big wins we've had around U.S. retail already, you know, in terms of the store brands, in terms of other brands that are in markets like Whole Foods, which is our own brand, Costco USA, which is one of our customers' brands. You know, we're seeing a lot of private label launches going on. You know, again, you know, we've had a successful debut in Sprouts USA on their private label recently.
Again, Sprouts is another chain that, you know, when we look at these, you know, we're taking a surgeon scalpel precision approach to penetration of the retail in the U.S. Some of these chains are what we would call leader chains. You know, they're not the biggest, like they're not the Albertsons and the Kroger, but they're the leaders in terms of the natural Better For You categories. We want Nielsen data on how this stuff sells, and we're getting that. That's our golden ticket, as I keep calling it. On the Better For You blends and flour mixes, we're expanding capacity because, you know, products like the Better For You, you know, Catelli Protein+, as an example, these products are growing dramatically. Barilla Protein+ in the U.S., we're seeing, you know, very strong trajectory, and dietary fiber and protein is not a fad.
You know, again, Ozempic came off generic in Canada. We're gonna continue to see the GLP-1 trend, and we're gonna continue to see a recasting of those supply chains. On the Turkish pasta side, I wanna be very clear. We are not reliant on new acquisitions of clients in order to fill that new utilization of the capacity built in 2025. Our existing client base and the retailers that we have today on terms of expanding SKUs and expanding product mixes is enough to fully utilize that capacity. Where we're focused now is new retailer acquisition for the India plant, and that's going well. I did give you a foreshadowing. I'm not gonna tell you which ones, but I can tell you major global retailers are scheduled to visit our plant in Q4 in India.
That's again, it's not just, you know, talk. It's, "Okay, we like it. We like your price. We like your quality. Let's go visit it. We wanna see it." That's, you know, again, a big part of the progression. I have a very strong optimism. I mean, we're not new kids on the block here. We're not entering a business. We are one of the most globally successful store brand pasta manufacturers in the entire world. You know, you have to think it's now it's a matching process. Which retailer needs it? Which retailer do I want? Which retailer fits? How do the economics align? That's where we're focused now, Zach.
Great, Harley. Thanks. Then for my follow-up, I was wondering how you're thinking about second order impacts of the Strait closure, like impacts on fertilizer costs and how that might affect crops going forward?
You have to realize that on the pulse side, right, we are low nitrogen fertilizer, low, no nitrogen fertilizer. The Canadian and North American plantings will not be affected materially because, you know, farmers are very large in North America. They've pre-booked their nitrogen fertilizer prior, Zach. We don't expect a change in seeding patterns in North America. Around the world, though, you may see more pulses actually, because again, if nitrogen fertilizer costs continue to rise, you may see low input crops becoming more prevalent. You know, in a general sense, I gotta be very honest, farmers who are rotating are doing it for a large agronomic benefit. We don't see massive wholesale change even with fertilizer price changes. You know, I'm not expecting it to be something that is going to materially change supply chains around the world in our core products.
This concludes our question- and- answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Murad Al-Katib for closing remarks.
Okay. Well, that's great. I think that, you know, again, thanks everybody for joining us, and, thanks very much for taking the time. We're excited about the future and, onwards and upwards. That's where we're just gonna continue that laser focus on execution. Thanks very much for joining.
This brings to a close the conference call for today. You can now disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.