Canadian National Railway Company (TSX:CNR)
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Sep 16, 2026, 1:16 PM EST
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Morgan Stanley's 14th Annual Laguna Conference

Sep 16, 2026

Summary

Expansion into Mexico and strong energy/agriculture growth underpin a positive long-term outlook, supported by disciplined execution, technology adoption, and resilient pricing strategies. Productivity gains and capital discipline are driving shareholder value, while industry trends and trade policy shifts create new opportunities.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. Good morning, everyone, and welcome back to day two of the Laguna Conference. We had an exciting day yesterday and hoping for a lot more great content today. Very happy to kick off our day two schedule with Canadian National Railway Company, and very happy to welcome back to Laguna, CEO Tracy Robinson. Tracy, thank you for being here.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Thanks, Ravi. Always good to be in Laguna, and always happy to come back and talk to you about what's going on in the rail space.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. That's awesome. I will let you open with some opening remarks, but before that, I have to say that for important disclosures, please see Morgan Stanley's research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures, or please read our recent research. With that, Tracy, do you want to just open up with the lay of land?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Sure. Listen, I'm really proud of the way the last year has unfolded, but what maybe I'll do before we get to your questions, Ravi, is I'll spend just a couple of minutes on where I'm focusing my time, and where we're all focusing our time, as we look forward as well. That being on some pretty interesting growth opportunities, combined with some disciplined operating execution and how that kind of combines to create some interesting shareholder value. On growth opportunities, first, I got to tell you, I am really happy to be sitting here this year with a network that now extends into Mexico. This agreement that we've reached with the Union Pacific to extend our network to Mexico to connect with the FXE through Memphis is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us.

This is a market, the trade between Canada and Mexico is CAD 45 billion that grows across all commodities. We've got this tremendous origination network, so we're matching that in a really lean, fast route through Memphis down to FXE. We're connecting that with the largest railroad in Mexico, and the railroad, actually, that's growing faster than all of the railroads in North America this year. We're really excited about that opportunity. We've positioned ourself really well, and we've done it without straining our balance sheet in any way, which is important to us. That's meaningful, and I think you're going to be hearing a lot more from us on that as we go forward. Back on the base network, we continue to be bullish on energy and on agriculture.

If you look at what's happening in the energy space, we've got a network that sits right on top of the Western Canadian energy complex in the Montney Shale region, and all of the development that's going on in there on NGLs. It's interesting because it's multi-commodity, it's multi-market. It's driven by very strong demand for energy across North America, and increasingly globally.

It's underpinned by significant investments, long-term investments by our customers and partners in supply chains. Whether you look at on NGLs with AltaGas' investing in facilities in Rupert, if you look at the Keyera ACE Rail Terminal, which is a unit train loading facility to load NGLs in Alberta, if you look at the Strathcona crude facility that's ramping up, if you look at those byproducts go into the Dow Path 2 Zero facility that's under construction in Edmonton. If you move over to the bulk, you have CANXPORT facility. We were all up there to celebrate its opening in Rupert two weeks ago. You've got the BHP potash mine in Jansen that's opening up next year. These are all structural, foundational, long-term growth opportunities that give us the benefit of that growth. Also, none of this growth is really tied to the North American macro.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

This is all very beneficial. Of course, we have a much broader, diversified portfolio. Janet's driving growth this year in automotive, in metals, in domestic intermodal, and she's got this boots-on-the-ground program, and she's here with me today. She's got a boots-on-the-ground program that is out there not just on the big programs and projects, but also in driving and creating opportunities with small customers for smaller opportunities. Those are equally important to us. It's a challenging environment out there. It's challenging right now between Canada and the U.S.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

On the free trade front. I think what we're learning is that if we focus on what we can control, we drive those foundational volume growths with key partners, then we will be less attached to the macro. We're excited about the path forward. 4.5% growth in RTM so far this year.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

It'll moderate a little as we get into a much tougher compare in Q4, but we're feeling pretty good about it. You match those growth opportunities with really disciplined execution. We launched, or relaunched I guess, scheduled railroading 4.5 years ago at CN, and we've continued to refine it since then through initiatives like Fast Track and asset utilization and locomotive productivity. Pat and team are delivering really strong results. The network is fluid, velocity is high, the customer service is very strong, and our productivity continues to improve. That productivity improvement is really broad based. It's about the workforce, where this year, 5% better productivity across our workforce. It's 13% if you look at the train crews. Our locomotives are working harder.

We are hitting records on fuel efficiency, and this is a drumbeat that we have out there around how we want to continue to drive productivity, getting more for our assets and our workforce every day. The question I'm often asked is, with all the growth opportunities, are you going to need to start putting more capital in again?

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

The short answer is no. We did the hard yards of investing in de-bottlenecking the system, adding 25% capacity in the west, modernizing our locomotive fleet. We're continuing to do those things, but the heavy lift is behind us. Now it's around we've pre-invested, and now it's about filling that capacity and accommodating the growth opportunities. We're down to a much more normalized capital spend of between 15% and 17% of revenues as we go forward. That includes some additional de-bottlenecking and adding capacity on the network as we go. That's great. If you have an environment, if you look at it through the lens of a shareholder value, environment of unique growth opportunities, and really disciplined both operating and capital execution, you create an environment where you have strong operating leverage, some underlying earnings growth.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

And some really good free cash flow generation. What we are looking to do now that we have CapEx stabilized, that excess cash goes back to our shareholders. We have a very strong balance sheet. We have increased our leverage from 2.5 x to 2.7x.

We think that we are executing on that. We are very conscious of the macro environment that we are in.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We are very careful about the commitments that we make, and we are meeting those commitments. We are delivering on those as we go, and we intend to continue to do that. I will leave it there, and we will get to your questions.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. No, that was a super comprehensive update. I think you hit all of my questions, so we can go to the beach now.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Excellent.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

No, a few follow-up there, but that was a great start. Just on the growth, you said a couple of times that clearly a long runway of growth, but not necessarily tied to the macro. Are you guys able to unpack what is an idiosyncratic, organic level of growth that just the pipeline can generate, and then what the macro can add on top of that?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

If you think about the energy growth that we talked about, it is multiple commodities, and as I said, multiple markets. What we are feeling, particularly in Canada, is the push for the diversification in trading.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

There is a lot of focus on finding global markets for this and we have the capacity to do that. Government is focused. I was at the investment summit that Prime Minister Carney ran yesterday, and he made some announcements on tax and a few other things, to solidify Canada as a place to invest. We are seeing some increasing momentum in investment, not just in the energy space, in the production. It is across all sectors.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Of critical minerals, but also in the infrastructure and supply chains in order to get it to marketplace. I would expect that we are going to see this kind of development not only continue but accelerate.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

If you think about it from an energy perspective, NGLs, which for a long period of time was largely a North American market, we've seen over the last three years the NGL exports, just through Rupert, increase at a CAGR of about 8%. If we look at that just over the next three years, that growth rate's going to double.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Of course.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We're seeing that kind of growth across the energy portfolio, and that isn't tied to the macro. It is tied to economic policy and some.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Of what's going on, but it's not tied to the macro. Some of the growth, the crude growth that we're seeing, does go into the United States. The refined fuels goes out to- We're in phase II of our Toronto fuel facility, so it's a very diverse network. Some of that will be impacted by the macro and a stronger economic growth. Some of it is just going to be through global demand. The same thing for the agriculture sector.

The Mexico growth opportunity is unique. We know that it is, as I said, CAD 45 billion in trade. A lot of that moves. That's a very natural rail market, given the distance that it goes. CAD 3.5 billion truck market that we're going to lean into. There's others that are leaning into that as well.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We think that's very natural, and there's a number of different phases of that. If you look at, we'll have the extension of our length of haul now to Memphis. That's an immediate benefit right out of the gate. We will have translation for rail volumes that are moving otherwise on rail, and then we have the truck market. That's more structural. Some of that will be tied

To the macro. Some of it is more just moving volumes that will always move onto a different mode. So it's a good combination. We still have lumber, we still have automotive, we still have all of our consumer segment, and we like that business a lot. It's about the diversification.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. CN has always been a long-term growth story, and clearly that's continuing with everything you've highlighted. But obviously, there's unfortunately been another very noisy, chaotic year for the entire industry, for the sixth year in a row. So maybe if we can unpack what some of the shorter-term trends look like. Obviously, earlier in the year, you had a very strong grain market, but then you had the whole USMCA deadline be a little bit of a catalyst people are looking at. Then to your point, there's been trade headlines in recent weeks. CAD 6 diesel, obviously, you don't have as much domestic intermodal exposure, but where does all of this shake out as you look into the back half of 2026?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Well, one of the big learnings from all of this is the need to be nimble and the ability to move quickly, right? As we've looked back over the last year and a half since the trade and tariff discussion started, the first shocks were twofold. One was everyone sat on the sidelines

Waiting for some certainty in what was going to happen. We've all learned that there's unlikely to be a lot of certainty anywhere.

Right? We are seeing most of our customers, our industry, come off the sidelines, and they're taking positions, whether it be in inventory or their supply chain or getting into new markets.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

That's been very positive. In a lot of ways, it's an opportunity.

Where we have the automotive, we have great Michigan franchise in automotive. We also have a Canadian franchise in automotive. As we sit here now, Janet's driven an increase in our automotive volumes, and a lot of that is coming in through Halifax and through Vancouver, so it is imports, but we have the capacity and the ability to be able to respond to that.

As we look forward, that is what it is going to be, is our ability to be very close with our customers, be sitting with them to be able to find the different markets. Steel is another one that has been under a lot of pressure in Canada, and our steel volumes are roughly what they were. It is volumes that are now, instead of moving across the border, they are moving within Canada and within the United States.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We have got new scrap movement that is moving on unit train.

It is about going out there and making your own opportunities. Then there are the underlying. We had a record grain crop this year, right? It was a privilege to move it.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We did a great job. We gained share, and we hope that it returns next year. I think it will be a strong crop next year. Whether it will be as strong.

Is a question mark, and we are ready for that. We have got the capacity in place. Our cycle times on those grain cars were significant. If you look at the Western Corridor, it outperformed for us this year.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We did put the capacity in place. But the volumes were up between grain and energy.

Yet, despite volumes being up, our car velocity was up 6%, our dwell was down 5%, our locomotive utilization was up 7%.

That is moving, and we've got the capacity to do more of that. I think there's going to be a combination of those fundamental structural flows that we'll invest in.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Having the ability to respond to mitigate the impact, but also respond to the opportunities of the short-term flows. I'm a believer that we'll get through this, what we're in right now, and a more stable environment will emerge, but we may be better off for it. There's new opportunities that are emerging because of it.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Absolutely. That's great to hear. I don't know how you see it from your perspective, but I think there is some optimism on a USMCA resolution. Do you feel like that is something that's going to open the floodgates and unlock a bunch of volume, or how do you see that potentially being a catalyst?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

I think it's industry by industry.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

I think it will depend on what the agreement is. We had a near miss recently.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Correct. Mm-hmm.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

That created some optimism, and I think as I understand it, I think the tone is getting better as we sit here today. So I think it will depend on what the deal is. I think we are all resigning ourselves. It is more of a global phenomenon than just Canada, U.S., Mexico, that trade will look a little bit different.

Trade incentives, the economic policy will look a little bit different. As we look broadly at the future, we see opportunity in that, both cross-border, and the ability to be responsive to what our customers need and what those industries are thinking. But we also see tremendous opportunity in our northern franchise on their sitting on top of the natural resource base of the continent.

With the kind of port access that we have through Rupert, through Vancouver, through Halifax and Saint John and Montreal.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

To play a meaningful role in that development of global markets.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. I know it's not as big a deal for you, but it's a theme of the conference, so I have to ask you anyway. CAD 6 diesel, what does that mean for you potentially in terms of volume tailwinds as well as potentially kind of cost headwinds in the very short term?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Listen, over the last number of years, we've developed a really strong domestic intermodal franchise, and it's largely on the backs of really strong service. You've got to be competitive on price.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

But really strong service. The nature of our network on the Canadian side of our business is such long haul that we've got great penetration. Now, we're focused on continuing to build that business, and certainly anything that happens in the trucking industry around fuel cost, around labor availability, it kind of confirms rail as a realistic opportunity.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

And alternative. We'll make small gains there, but if you think about Mexico and that $3.5 billion truck opportunity, it could be very meaningful for us, and that is going to drive the opportunities for conversion from truck to rail, I think, in that marketplace. We're watching it very closely.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Understood. Obviously, with all of this volume opportunity, there's opportunity for price as well. How are you thinking about that volume versus price dynamic, and what is the opportunity on price, do you think, in the medium term?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Well, when we go to market, we play with a lot of levers.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

If you think about where our network is, where it can benefit our customers, where we can get them from and to. If you think about, we think very carefully about our capacity.

About the nature of the opportunity around the commodity and where they're trying to get and the sustainability of the opportunity, asset velocity. We think about all that, and then, of course, we price based on that. We think differently in different opportunities across our network. Our objective is always to get maximum value for the capacity that we have.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

It's our scarcest resource. Janet does a great job in pricing. At the end of the day, what we ask her to do is always to come in above our rail cost inflation, and she does a great job of that, but there's a lot of moving pieces within it. What we're looking for is to drive not just growth. Certainly, we want growth, and we want to use our capacity well, but we want to drive profitable growth.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Pat and Janet work together very closely on where that capacity is, how we should be using it.

And price is a mechanism and a manner of how we use it.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Understood. Maybe let's shift gears a little bit and talk about, again, the topic du jour in the rail industry for the last eight years.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Is there a topic du jour?

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

There's a few of them.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Yeah, okay.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

It's a long day. What can I say?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Okay.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

But, obviously, the merger, you guys were somewhat on the sidelines, somewhat critical, and then you reached an agreement with UP that you say helps with a lot of the considerations on the merger. Can you just help unpack that a little bit? What was the genesis for that, and what does CN gain from the bargain?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

As you know, we have a great origination franchise.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

At CN. Probably, definitely more than any other railroad. 85% of our business originates on our network.

For the North American business, we push this down into North America, and we work with every one of the Class I and a number of the other non-Class I.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Partners in order to get that into marketplaces. UP is one of them. We work very closely with Jim and his team on all kinds of efforts to jointly build the business. As we contemplated the merger, I think it's clear we would've been probably, and will be the least impacted by the merger, given our north-south orientation and our strong.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Origination franchise. We also made a case, quite publicly, that we thought that it's a very high bar to meet from a you have to need to enhance competition. We thought our network could be useful in doing that.

Ultimately, in our discussions with Jim, we came to an agreement where we think that that's the case.

We will provide a competitive option into Kansas City.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

If this merger goes forward, we will provide the competitive options for the two-to-ones and the three-to-twos.

Then we'll participate in what some of the gateway provisions will ultimately look like. The STB has got a broader question to answer, and I know they'll do that with all of the full rigor, but we believe that what we said is true.

Our network is being used t o introduce more competition, which is good for the system, it's good for our customers and our customer base and the potential that we can offer them. And we believe that for us, it mitigated much of the harm that the merger would have presented for us. So as we think about it now, we are no longer in opposition to the merger.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

It's a big question that I think the STB has to answer, but we are no longer in opposition for it.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Do you have a sense of just how active you are going to be through the process?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Well, we will certainly be active to the extent that we will be putting forward the agreement that we made with.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Union Pacific in supporting it.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

And we'll have a voice in the issues around that.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Just going back to the Mexico agreement, clearly very exciting for you guys. You started out with the opportunity there. Can you just unpack that a little bit more, how near-term or immediate is the customer reaction to that? Are they saying, "Hey, we now have this pathway into Mexico we didn't have before. Let's get going." Again, you said that's not necessarily macro-dependent, but when do we start to see that show up in the volume numbers?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We've been spending some time with our friends at the FXE on where we both view the specific opportunities near-term, medium-term, and long-term, and we're getting organized on that.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

But the way that we think about this as we came to the deal, is that there really are three tranches of opportunities. One is this allows us. Most of our business that we did with UP to get into Mexico with FXE.

Was routed through Chicago.

This business will now be routed through Memphis, so there's an opportunity immediately for us to start working on that traffic and have it routed through Memphis. And that's a lift for us from a revenue perspective. The second one is there's rail volumes that are already moving between Mexico and Canada. And if we look at the trade between those two countries, the CAD 45 billion, 80% of that is between Mexico and Eastern Canada.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We will have a three to four-day transit advantage

Into Eastern Canada. We will be targeting some of that business, certainly. We are at par on transit for Western Canada.

There's some important business out there that we feel that we are the appropriate carrier to move on that. Then the third piece, of course, is that which we're all trying to convert, is that big truck market

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

That moves all the way to Mexico to Canada. As you said, the conditions around trucking economics are becoming much more challenging.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We think that there is an opportunity for a lift there. This will happen, as I said, there will be near, medium, and longer term plans that we are putting together with the FXE, and as we get those in place, we will be able to say more.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. You mentioned Kansas City as well. Just how important is that for the fluidity of your North American network?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Well, Kansas City has been a. We have been trying to figure out how to get into Kansas City and Mexico for years.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Now we have it. Now, Kansas City is conditional upon the merger going forward.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We will have the line into Kansas City on a haulage trackage arrangement and the first right to purchase that if UP ever decides that they will, or are required to dispose of it, as well as an Neff Yard.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

As a landing spot. It positions us very well. Similar to Mexico, it will lengthen our haul immediately from Chicago to Kansas City, and then it gives us the ability to move freight immediately. Now, that will be a ways off because it's conditional with the merger. That will come, too.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. Maybe shifting gears a little bit, it feels like you guys have almost taken advantage of the downturn, if you will, to look inwards and cost savings, to your point, resetting some of the targets and hitting those targets. Let's talk about cost savings for a second. Fast Track, CAD 40 million run rate savings in 1 Q, CAD 100 million realized benefits by 2 Q. How much additional opportunity remains there, and is there a multi-year run be there?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Yeah, we're not done. This is part of scheduled railroading. 4.5 years ago, we started scheduled railroading. We have a couple things to do. We got the operating model right. We did our big heavy lifting from an investment perspective, locomotive fleet, green fleet, the network, and now we're turning to refining it.

The first part of refining it is just you go, what Pat is doing, he's delivering those results you mentioned, is in the yards and terminals, looking at every process, looking at every service, looking at every facility, how we use their assets.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

He's driving cost out. Different services. We don't need as many locomotives, we don't need as many facilities, and he's going across. It's producing significant results, and we're learning as we go about how to apply it across some, and that's the rest of the network. That benefit will continue to grow through this year. This isn't something we're stopping with at yards and terminals. What we're doing is now taking it to the next level. We're going to look at facilities. We're going to look at engineering fleet.

We're going to look at procurement, same processes. We're going to look at some of the support functions, so we're going to keep going. The way to think about it is this: We're going to continue to grow and advance a little bit this year. Next year, we'll embed the full year impact of the benefits from this year.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Plus, there will be a next phase of opportunity. It's about scheduled railroading. It's about continuing to refine how we use our assets, and how we use our workforce.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. I think technology has also been a big focus area for CN, kind of going back to Janet's old role as well, kind of many years ago, because we've been talking about this for years. You were amongst the leaders in implementing autonomous inspection terminals and such. Can you talk about what the most exciting new tech initiatives are at CN right now and what benefits you can see from that?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Listen, as you say, I was away from the industry for eight years. When I came back, this was the most significant change

Was the technology and the autonomous inspection of both the underlying kind of infrastructure as well as the equipment that rolls by. That has generated, for us, significant data.

The opportunity with the capabilities of today to use that data in a different way on a predictive basis is significant, and we're working on that now. We've also invested heavily in some meaningful locomotive capability, where it comes from not just the nature of the locomotives, the efficiency of them, the technology that's on them, our ability to drive. We are the most fuel-efficient railroad and locomotive, and our fuel efficiency we're at record levels this year. It's improved about 4% over the last three or four years, and that's real meaningful kind of value. It improves the predictability of the way that we operate. There's the next level of that. You know that we are exploring hybrid battery technology.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure, yeah.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

That allows us to take a look at how those batteries operate, allows us to think about the reliability they can offer. That's in concurrence with a continued modernization of our locomotive fleet. It's a combination of the next technology and how we use the data that's being produced from all the technology that we have. I think it's pretty exciting around the ability to predict and the ability to optimize.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. If you just put together everything you've told us so far, long-term growth opportunities, pricing power, cost actions and productivity, technology opportunities, what does this mean in terms of the long-term runway for OR over time?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Well, listen, OR is an output, as you know.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

I mean, what we are focused on is growing value.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

If you think about when I talk to folks like you and investors, what I want them to understand, what they may not appreciate as they look at our business, is the structural nature of some of the unique growth opportunities that we have. We have covered those off. We have got the capacity to handle those.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Right? We have invested in that. Those were hard yards, but we have got the capacity in place now, and it would be a great day if that capacity is challenged.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

But we are ready for that as well. We have got shovel-ready projects for the next level. But embedded in our current capital spending is some of that already. We are continuing to do work like the Zanardi Bridge in Prince Rupert and the siding outside of Vancouver. We are continuing to do that work. These structural growth opportunities are significant and probably not well understood.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Sure.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

You combine that with the productivity.

That we're generating, and continuing to generate, I think that's significant. It creates operating leverage. The third one is that operating leverage, if you think about the ability, because we've got the capacity. Railroads are beasts, that if you've got capacity and you've got the resources, you can add volume at very high margins.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We are positioned well from that perspective. I think this is the formula that we're trying to create, is the fact that you combine growth opportunities with operating leverage and a strong balance sheet.

And it creates shareholder value. As we look forward, yeah, the operating ratio will be out there. It's driven by growth, by productivity, and it'll start with a five, without a doubt, as we've always said. It's really about the earnings and the value that we drive for our shareholders that's important.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

I think we can see that formula starting to really resonate.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Five without a doubt sounds pretty confident. That is great. Any questions from the audience? Madison, here you go.

Speaker 3

Hi, Tracy. Just wondering, going back to fuel, I know you guys had noted fuel to be an earnings and OR tailwind in the second half of the year if prices held. Obviously we have not seen them hold. Just wondering your latest thinking there on the net fuel impact for the second half of the year, and what does underlying OR progression look excluding fuel?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We've proven not to be great at forecasting fuel price. It just feels like we're not alone on that. I think at the end of the second quarter, we said if fuel prices held where they were, exactly as you say, we'd see a tailwind. If fuel prices did not hold where they were, if you look at where they are now, and we look at Q3, Q4, we'll still see a tailwind on earnings, a small tailwind, probably CAD 0.10 or so, Q3, Q4. The OR impact has turned to a tailwind, maybe 50 basis points or so for Q3, higher than that for Q4, if fuel prices stay where they are today. It could be 150, could be 200 basis points, depending. That one can still move around as fuel moves around.

It has shifted and listen, fuel surcharge, it's the right thing to do. It's about passing along the impact of that. Generally, it's very effective. For us, it's about a two-month lag, and so you experience the cost differently than you experience the revenue from the fuel surcharge, and so that can complicate all of what you're seeing. As you're right in saying, what it kind of masks is the underlying kind of operation of what I call the engine, right? The operating ratio, and so we are getting pretty lean and productive. When you isolate our 210 basis points impact on fuel in Q2 on operating ratio, it would've been a very nice number. Same thing for this year. We're getting down to the point where we are almost to that level that we aspire to.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Any other questions? Tracy, you said at the top that you're seeing customers get off the sidelines because they know that there's not going to be a normal environment maybe in the foreseeable future. Does it feel like there's a lot of pent-up demand there, or do you think that they're getting off the sidelines and doing the minimum necessary to keep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

I think it's industry dependent, Rav.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

I think that there's a lot of work to be done on the future of what's going to happen to the steel industry.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

In Canada. On the other hand, I think that the future for potash fertilizer is very strong. I think the future for the ag sector is very strong. I think in any economic, in any trade scenario, the future of energy is very strong.

I think automotive, it will depend. But we've seen those supply chains adjust. If you think about lumber, it's more reliant on housing starts.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

As well as the trade environment. So it's a broad range of outcomes.

But we are seeing, just as we are focusing on what we can control and making sure that we manage and create our own future, we're seeing industries and customers do that as well, and it is creating opportunities.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Got it. So maybe I can have you close with just your freewheeling view on the future of railroading, right? And obviously, there's tons going on with policy, with technology, with the merger, with regulation. When you come back to Laguna 10 years from now, what does this industry look like, and what might be different?

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Well, when you and I are back in Laguna 10 years from now, we might be out on that patio out there.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Well, I'm certainly hoping so.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Yeah. We'll see how that happens. But listen, I think, despite all of the turmoil and what's going on, I think it's a great time to be in railroading.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

We power the economy, and the focus on economic growth in this continent, but around globally, is significant right now, and it's meaningful, and I think it plays to our favor.

We are an industry that's got the capability to move big things and to serve industry as well, and that's the way we think about our business. We think about our ability to dramatically change an industry and the markets that they get to. And it's why we pre-invested in the capacity that we did. It gives you flexibility. It gives you the ability to be nimble with your customers and to provide solutions.

And we're seeing that take place. It also drives productivity.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

If you want to be economic in transport, you need to be productive and fast and nimble, and we've invested heavily in that. If I think about the future, no matter what mode of transportation you're talking about right now, technology is going to be a major player in the future.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yep.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

It's going to change the face. Whether it's automation.

What level of automation, around what parts of the modes, how we do that together.

How we leverage that together in order to provide better, seamless, more responsive, faster, more reliable supply chains for industry, who are also investing, I think it's a really exciting time. The technology capabilities are out there. It's for us to apply them, and it's for us to use all of the capabilities coming out now in a responsible way to use that data.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Right.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

To the benefit of our industry, but more importantly, the benefit of the industries and the economies in which we operate. It is a really exciting time to be railroading.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Great. That's a great place to end. Tracy, thank you so much for your thoughts.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Thank you, Ravi.

Ravi Shanker
Freight Transportation and Airlines Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thanks for being here. Thanks for getting us off to a great start on day two.

Tracy Robinson
CEO, Canadian National Railway Company

Thank you.