Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX:CSH.UN)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 5, 2023

Operator

This conference is being recorded. Please stand by. Your meeting is about to begin. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Chartwell Retirement Residences Q1 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. I would like to turn the meeting over to the CEO, Vlad Volodarski. Please go ahead, sir.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Thank you, Donna. Good morning, thank you for joining us today. There is a slide presentation to accompany this conference call available on our website at chartwell.com under the Investor Relations tab. Joining me are Karen Sullivan, President and Chief Operating Officer, and Sheri Harris, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I direct you to the cautionary statements on Slide 2. During this call, we will make statements containing forward-looking information and non-GAAP and other financial measures.

Our MD&A and other securities filings contain information about the assumptions, risks, and uncertainties inherent in such forward-looking statements and details of such non-GAAP and other financial measures. More specifically, I direct you to the disclosures in our Q1 2023 MD&A under the headings 2023 Outlook and Risks and Uncertainties and Forward-Looking Information for a discussion of risks and uncertainties related to the ongoing effects of pandemic in our business.

These documents can be found on our website or at sedar.com. Turning to Slide 3. I am encouraged by the progress our teams are making in driving occupancy recovery and reducing reliance on agency staffing, our key priorities this year. All our retirement operating platforms posted occupancy growth in Q1 2023 from the same quarter of last year. Importantly, our seasonal decline in occupancy in the first four months of the year was only 40 basis points, a significant improvement from the pre-pandemic average declines of 180 basis points.

This is important because combined with higher initial contacts and significantly stronger personalized tours in leasing, especially in March and April, we are setting for the acceleration of our occupancy growth in the coming months. That occupancy growth, combined with declining utilization of agency staffing, will continue to support FFO improvements in the remaining of 2023.

Our same property Adjusted NOI increased 7.7%, and FFO from continuing operations grew by 3.3% in Q1 2023 compared to the same period of last year. In Q1 2022, FFO from continuing operations included recoveries of prior period pandemic expenses of CAD 2.2 million, of which CAD 1.6 million was included in same property Adjusted NOI.

There were no comparable amounts in the first quarter of this year. Adjusted for these prior period recoveries, FFO from continuing operations increased 14.1%, and same property Adjusted NOI increased 11.7%. Our efforts in optimizing our property portfolio were also evident this quarter as we completed the sale of one non-core property and closed operations in two other underperforming non-core properties. Such closures are difficult for residents and staff.

Our team's people first approach to the execution of these business decisions resulted in most of the residents of these homes relocating to other Chartwell residences in the markets. Based on the feedback received from the government, we expect the closing of the sale of our Ontario long-term care platform to occur in Q3 of this year. We are making great progress on many important operating, marketing, sales, technology, and financing initiatives, which I'm confident will deliver enhanced services to our residents, more opportunities for our employees, and value to our unit holders. Karen and Sherry will cover some of these initiatives now. Let's start with operations and sales. Karen, over to you.

Karen Sullivan
President and COO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Thanks, Vlad. Moving on to Slide 4. As Vlad described, our typical seasonal winter dip was significantly less pronounced than in previous years. Our initial contacts, personalized tours, leases signed, and permanent move-ins all increased in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022. Importantly, we are generating higher quality leads with closing ratios rising by 2 percentage points in Q1 2023 compared to the same quarter last year. In early April, we launched phase II of RentCafe Senior CRM, which includes a wait list function, mobile application, sales activity, duration tracking, and most importantly, an automated lease generation. We held our first open house in January, which produced strong quality leads with 5% of these prospects converting to permanent move-ins within three months, a much faster conversion than in previous years.

We recently held another successful two-day open house in April with the highest new prospect travel traffic since 2019. In February, we launched our new brand campaign, Rethink Senior Living, with a range of visual and video assets. This included six weeks of television ads in Quebec, plus French and English YouTube and social media advertising at a national level. Our new website, designed for an enhanced customer experience and optimized for better organic traffic and improved conversions, will be live in early May. To support the growth in prospects, which are up 28% in the past 12 months, we are also introducing a marketing automation platform that will be integrated with both our website and RentCafe Senior CRM.

This will allow us to reach out on a regular basis to all prospects in our database with information that's relevant to them. The team in our residences can also continue to focus on Club Chartwell, our resident family referral program. This included the launch of a full 2023 calendar of monthly activation plans, including a Q1 referral contest with property specific and national prizes. Turning to Slide 5, our continued focus on recruitment and retention of staff has led to a reduction in agency spend in Q1, as well as a decrease in turnover rates in all staffing categories. We launched an employer brand campaign in Q1, Great People Doing Great Things, with content development, advertising strategies, and a toolkit for residence managers, as well as a menu of services for our corporate recruiters.

This centralized recruitment team continues to assist our residences in areas with high staffing agency usage. This includes assigning corporate recruiters to assist in the field in Quebec City, Ottawa, and Collingwood. In Q1, we held many successful hiring events at our residences across the country, supported by our recruiters. We also extended our paid employee referral program based on the success to date of this initiative.

We're in the final stages of selecting our preferred staffing agencies for non-care staff in Quebec based on a recent RFP, which will assist us in controlling costs. We're also implementing Oracle Recruiting Cloud, which is part of our human capital management system, in order to give our residence managers the ability to directly post jobs and track resumes for hourly workers. Finally, we're also improving our onboarding and orientation programs in an effort to continue to reduce turnover.

We're also rolling out Yardi's electronic health record in our retirement homes, beginning with Ontario and Western Canada, with future implementations in 2024, including beginning this initiative in Quebec. This tool will automate our assessments and care plans and assist us to capture and build care services more effectively. I'd now like to turn it over to Sheri to take you through our financial results.

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Thank you, Karen. As shown on Slide 6, in Q1, 2023, net loss was CAD 9.2 million compared to net loss of CAD 3.3 million in Q1, 2022. For Q1, 2023, FFO from continuing operations was CAD 20.9 million or CAD 0.09 per unit, compared to CAD 20.3 million or CAD 0.09 per unit in Q1, 2022. As Vlad noted, Q1, 2022 included recoveries of pandemic expenses for preceding years of CAD 2.2 million, for which there is not a comparable amount in Q1, 2023. Excluding these recoveries, FFO from continuing operations was up 14.1%. The increase in FFO from continuing operations in Q1, 2023 was due to a number of factors.

Higher Adjusted NOI from continuing operations of CAD 5.4 million was made up of higher Adjusted NOI of CAD 3.9 million from our acquisitions and development portfolio. Higher same property Adjusted NOI of CAD 3.6 million and lower Adjusted NOI by CAD 2 million, primarily related to dispositions of 2 long-term care homes in BC. Higher Adjusted NOI from continuing operations was partially offset by higher finance costs of CAD 3.5 million and G&A expenses, which were higher by CAD 1.6 million. The majority of the increase in G&A is timing related. Total FFO was CAD 24.3 million or CAD 0.10 per unit for Q1 2023, compared to CAD 31.3 million or CAD 0.13 per unit in Q1 2022.

In Q1 2022, total FFO includes CAD 9.4 million of recoveries of prior period expenses, CAD 7.2 million of which was in our long-term care discontinued operations. Excluding these recoveries, total FFO per unit was up 9.2%. Slide 7 summarizes our same property operating platforms results. Our same property Adjusted NOI increased by CAD 3.6 million or 7.7% in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022. Adjusting for recoveries of prior year expenses in Q1 2022, same property Adjusted NOI increased 11.7%. We achieved 5% same property revenue growth. Our pandemic expenses were lower. These positive contributions were partially offset by higher direct property operating expenses from higher staffing costs, repairs and maintenance, supplies, food, and utilities costs.

Same property occupancy was 78.5% for Q1 2023, compared to 77.1% for Q1 2022, an increase of 1.4 percentage points. Our Western platform achieved strong growth of 2.5 percentage points. Ontario and Quebec each achieved occupancy gains of 1.1 percentage points compared to Q1 2022. Turning to Slide 8, you will see our monthly same property retirement occupancies. To date in 2023, occupancy and leasing trends are outperforming the same months of 2022 and pre-pandemic levels. As at April 30, 2023, our same property weighted average occupancy is expected to increase by 30 basis points in May 2023 and a further 50 basis points in June 2023.

Last year, we achieved occupancy growth of 210 basis points from April to December. With the improving leasing momentum, assuming the stable operating environment continues, we expect to exceed this occupancy growth in the remainder of 2023. Our all-in rental and service rate increases, which for in-place residents roll through on anniversary dates, was 3.3% in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022. As increases come in gradually through the year, we expect that we will improve revenue growth from all-in rate to between 4%-5% for the remainder of 2023. Although staffing costs increased in Q1 2023 due to higher compensation, this was offset by a steady decrease in agency staffing costs.

With our successful recruitment, retention, and cost control initiatives continuing to produce results, we expect agency staffing costs to continue to decline gradually through 2023 and into 2024. Pandemic expenses have declined significantly and are expected to continue to dissipate along with the retraction of government directives related to COVID. Occupancy, all-in rate growth, and lower agency costs and pandemic expenses are expected to continue to improve our NOI margins in 2023.

Improvements in Q2 will be somewhat more muted as we invest in additional costs to onboard new permanent Chartwell team members as agency costs taper and occupancy and rate increases build through the year. For the second half of 2023, we expect to achieve NOI margins close to the mid-30% range. Assuming the pace of these improvements continue, we expect margins returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.

As noted in our year-end MD&A outlook, we expect our G&A expenses for the full year to remain in line with 2022 levels. Turning to Slide 9. At May 4, 2023, liquidity amounted to approximately $185 million, which included $28 million of cash and cash equivalents, and $157 million of borrowing capacity on our credit facilities. The majority of our debt stack is long-term fixed rate mortgage debt. We continue to use the CMHC financing program, including top-up financings. Our mortgage maturities remain well staggered, with an average term to maturity of six years at March 31, 2023. During Q1 2023, we obtained two CMHC mortgages totaling $46.3 million, with a weighted average interest rate of 3.81% and a weighted average term to maturity of 9.1 years.

For the remainder of 2023, we have CAD 121.5 million of debt maturing at a weighted average interest rate of 3.68%, of which CAD 39.6 million is CMHC insured. Refinancing of these mortgages is expected to proceed in the normal course. At May 4, 2023, ten-year CMHC-insured mortgage rates are estimated at approximately 3.8%, and five-year conventional mortgage financing is available estimated at 5%. The previously announced sale of our Ontario LTCs is expected to generate net proceeds of approximately CAD 269.2 million, which we intend to use to pay down our credit facilities.

On closing of the Ontario LTC sales, our unencumbered asset pool, currently valued at CAD 1 billion, will decline by approximately CAD 49.9 million. Certain of the sold properties will be removed from the borrowing base collateral in the secured credit facility, which will result in a reduction in availability on that facility of approximately CAD 27.1 million. As Vlad noted, we expect to close the main Ontario LTC sale in Q3 2023. The sale of Ballycliffe is expected to follow in Q4 2023 on completion of its redevelopment. On April 13, 2023, DBRS confirmed the BBB (low) rating of our issuer rating and the senior unsecured debentures rating with a negative trend.

We expect that with growth in EBITDA and the redeployment of proceeds from asset sales to reduce our debt levels, our credit metrics will improve significantly over the course of 2023. In April 2023, we extended our credit facilities by one year to May 29th, 2025, on substantially the same terms. Our unencumbered asset pool provides significant financial flexibility with our unencumbered asset to unsecured debt ratio at March 31st, 2023, at 2.1x . In December 2023, our senior unsecured debentures with a face value of CAD 200 million will mature. We expect to refinance these debentures with new senior unsecured debentures or other unsecured or secured debt subject to market conditions. I will now turn the call back to Vlad to wrap up.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Thank you, Sheri. After three years of the pandemic impacted our business, we are now clearly on the path of recovery and growth. Turning to Slide 10, there is a significant embedded potential value in our portfolio, and we're committed to realizing it. Occupancy is key in this value creation, and our teams are laser-focused on execution of our operating sales and marketing strategies to accelerate its growth.

We continue our work to optimize our portfolio, investing capital in our core assets to ensure their continuing competitiveness, repositioning properties requiring more complex strategies, and divesting non-core assets. I'm confident that these initiatives, supported by the strong demographic trends, improving consumer sentiment towards retirement living, lower new construction starts, and continuing shortages of long-term care beds across the country, will deliver sustained growth in 2023 and beyond and will help us to achieve our aspirational 2025 targets in employee engagement, resident satisfaction, and occupancy. I'd like to finish by telling you a story of one of our residents pictured on Slide 11.

Not only do I find these stories of our residents and staff heartwarming, but they're also extremely important because they speak to the impact we have on our residents' lives, the lives of their families, and the communities in which we operate. They speak to the kind of company Chartwell is and the kind of culture we have. They are deserving to be shared. One day, our maintenance manager, Ray, at Chartwell Hartford, was in a resident's suite installing curtains and chatting amiably with the resident, Joan.

The conversation turned to how much she was missing her best friend, who had moved from the residence to a long-term care home about 30- minutes away. Ray knew exactly what he had to do to create a memorable experience for Joan. Later the same week, with a bouquet of flowers in hand, Joan and Ray jumped in the Chartwell van and off they went for a drive. As soon as Ruth saw Joan, her eyes got wide, and tears came rushing down her cheeks. They hugged and smiled at each other the way only best friends do.

They were able to spend the afternoon together catching up and reminiscing. Thanks to Ray's attentiveness and compassion, he was able to create a moment that matters for these two wonderful friends. Our teams create hundreds of these moments for our residents every week. Seeing smiles and tears of joy on our residents' faces is why we do what we do. We would be now pleased to answer your questions. Donna?

Operator

Thank you. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. If you have a question and you're using a speakerphone, please mute your handset before making your selection. If you have a question, please press star one on your device's keypad. To cancel the question, please press star two. Please press star one at this time if you have a question. There will be a brief pause while participants register. Thank you for your patience. The first question is from Jonathan Kelcher from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Securities

Thanks. Good morning.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Morning, Jon.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Securities

First question, Sheri. You just said you expect the Q2 margin to be somewhat muted. Is that a function of you guys sort of being double-staffed with onboarding a lot of new staff while still paying quite a bit agency costs?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

That will affect our margins in Q2. Certainly we want to invest in appropriate orientation and training for the new staff we're onboarding, and Karen mentioned we've been very successful in hiring. It just takes time. As one ramps up, the other comes down.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Securities

Okay. Is there more to Q2 margins being relatively muted versus the second half of this year, or is it also a function of occupancy needs to grow still?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Yeah, occupancy needs to grow, rate needs to grow. We see those rolling in through the year.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Securities

Okay, fair enough. Secondly, just on the CAD 3.4 million of pandemic expenses that you noted in the MD&A, was that all in continuing ops, or was there a portion of that that was in the discontinued long-term care properties?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Sorry, the $3.4 million in total recoveries of prior year expenses in Q1 of 2022 for all operations in total FFO are $9.4 million. $2.2 million is in continuing operations, and $1.6 million is in same-property NOI.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Securities

No, I'm talking like Page 30, I guess Page 33 of the MD&A, you have for your consolidated EBITDA calcs or your EBITDA calcs. You have CAD 3.4 million in net pandemic expenses for 2023 so far. I'm just.

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Right.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Securities

That's what I'm curious of. If that.

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Yeah, that's in same-property retirement.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Securities

Okay. It's all in retirement. Okay. Thanks. I'll turn it back.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Himanshu Gupta from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Thank you, and, good morning.

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Morning.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Just on the occupancy, you know, expected pickup 50 basis points in June, did Ottawa or Calgary also saw a similar increase on a month-over-month basis?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

On the forecast, Himanshu, out to June, for all of our top 15 markets, we saw improvements relative to seasonal trends in Q1. We're certainly seeing growth across the portfolio. Quebec is doing extremely well. In terms of expectations for the remainder of the year, you know, last year, remember it, you know, this time, Omicron started ramping up again really in June of last year. Through the fall, we would have had 40 to 50 homes in outbreak at any given time. With the current trends and the stable operating environment, we certainly believe that we will be outperforming 2022's growth.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Got it. Okay. Just to clarify, are there still markets which are lagging the others? I mean, you have previously identified even three or four markets which have not performed previously. Are they now in line with the overall expectation?

Karen Sullivan
President and COO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Himanshu, 90% of our homes are trending positively in occupancy, including 20% are higher than even pre-pandemic levels. In Q1, all of our top markets were actually better than the typical seasonal dip, and that includes even the ones that were challenged. We see that as very positive.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Got it. Thank you. Thank you there. Shifting to NOI margins. Sheri, expectation of mid-30% in second half of the year. Q1 was, like, 30%, and I think Q2 you said muted, NOI margin.

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Yeah.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

What are the drivers which will lead to margin normalization or expansion in the second half?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Yeah. I mean, we certainly expect to see improvements in Q2 relative to Q1, not to that level of mid-30s yet that we expect in the back half of 2023.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

My question was, like, what will lead to this? Are you expecting, like, agency staffing burden to go away, or is it all the occupancy which is driving the NOI margin? Are there any specific cost line items which you think will go down, which gives you confidence of, like, almost, you know, five points of margin expansion?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

In terms of, the four factors that are going to drive results, particularly for Q2, occupancy growth, rate growth rolling in, agency costs declining, seasonality and utilities. Through the remainder of the year, it is occupancy growth, rate growth, and agency expenses continuing to come down.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Got it. Okay. Thank you. Thank you for that. My next question is, shifting to balance sheet. CAD 200 million unsecured debentures coming due in December. Is there a preference to go for unsecured debentures for the renewal here?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

A preference to go for unsecured debentures?

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

I mean, would you issue, like, unsecured debenture to, you know, pay off these CAD 200 million unsecured, or would you know, tap in, like, CMHC-insured debt or other traditional mortgage financing as well? I'm just trying to see that, is there anything which stops you from not doing unsecured debenture and rather go for CMHC-insured financing here?

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Himanshu, maybe I'll try to answer that question. Thankfully, we have a number of options available to us in terms of the refinancing of these debentures, including additional CMHC financing, including some bank-specific debt, and obviously unsecured debenture issuance. We are always trying to maximize the use of CMHC-insured financing on our portfolio. It's always better done when the property has stabilized occupancy. You get better leverage from that perspective. Given the history of the last two years, unfortunately, those opportunities in the short term are limited. We are continuing to evaluate all options available to us, including the issuance of new unsecured debenture series.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Okay. Okay, that's fair enough. My last question, Vlad, is on distribution. Based on your NOI margin expectation for second half and based on your occupancy increases, do you think, you know, the payout ratio will be below 100% by the end of the year?

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

That is our expectation, to get to close to fully cover our distributions with AFFO at this point by the end of this year.

Himanshu Gupta
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Scotiabank

Awesome. Okay. Thank you, guys, and I'll turn back.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, please press star one on your device's keypad if you have a question. The next question is from Pammi Bir from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Pammi Bir
Head of Global Real Estate Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. Good morning.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Good morning.

Pammi Bir
Head of Global Real Estate Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Just on the agency costs, that came through in Q1, how did that compare maybe on a quarter-over-quarter or a year-over-year basis, in terms of the change? You know, how does that maybe stack up to, I guess, your target of getting it down to 3% of revenue?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Thanks, Pammi Bir, for the question. You know, every month since November, we've seen steady declines. For Q1, we're about 15% below Q1 of last year. With the initiatives that we've seen, we've done really well in increasing our full-time headcount, as well as our part-time headcount, which is really important to us. We need both of those positions. Overall, we've been, as Karen Sullivan mentioned, successful on recruitment and retention. Has been a big part of that as well, and I think part of that is our homes operating more normally now as well. We expect that the pace of the decline will continue, expect to see that improve through the spring.

Pammi Bir
Head of Global Real Estate Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Sorry, got it. Sheri, sorry, was that some 15% down from Q4, or was that 15% lower than last year Q1?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Last year Q1, 15% lower. Each month we are declining.

Pammi Bir
Head of Global Real Estate Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Right. Okay. Just a last one for me. In terms of the long-term care segment, it looks like, you know, one of your peers did receive some rather, you know, sizable recovery. Recognizing that there are, of course, differences between each company. I'm just curious if you're anticipating any recoveries at all in Q2 in terms of prior period pandemic-related costs in long-term care.

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

No, I'm not expecting any further prior period recoveries.

Pammi Bir
Head of Global Real Estate Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Any changes, I realize this is gonna be pretty short term because the portfolio should be gone by, I presume, in Q3. any, anticipated pickup from a funding standpoint in Q2 from the funding envelopes?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

In Q1, we are typically the envelopes are overspent because the increases, the acuity increases and the regular increases come through in April, but expenses transition early. We do expect a little bit of recovery there. That's normal seasonality in our long-term care operations.

Pammi Bir
Head of Global Real Estate Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Just last one. Coming back to the question on margins, you know, obviously multiple drivers there that you did mention. You know, as we think about 2024 getting back to, I think you said pre-pandemic levels, which would, I guess, put you closer to, you know, high 30%, like 39-ish, I think was the 2019 level. Is that gonna be primarily a function of the occupancy gains that you expect over the course of, call it, the next 18 months or so, or is it the cost side that's driving it? I guess, where do you have higher confidence? Is it in the cost, or is it in the occupancy gains?

Sheri Harris
CFO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Well, certainly we'll be bringing the cost down, as I've mentioned. You know, we have been putting through higher than historical rate increases to absorb inflationary increases, at our residence all-in rent and services rate. Occupancy will drive the majority of the margin expansion.

Pammi Bir
Head of Global Real Estate Research and Senior Equity Research Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks very much. I'll turn it back.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Tal Woolley from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Hi. Good morning.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Morning.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

I think, just wanted to stick with the payout question going forward. I guess, when we're looking sort of at a continuing operations basis, you're putting up around CAD 0.09 a quarter right now. The distribution's at CAD 0.61. I appreciate that, you're expecting earnings from continuing operations to continue to rise. Historically, this has been a company that sort of run at a payout ratio, kind of in the 60%-80% range.

You got a lot more work to go in terms of the growth to kinda get back to that level. I'm just wondering if running at 100% on continuing operations is really the goal here. What might be the other financial choices you have to make to try and get the positioning right with respect to the payout ratio and how much you wanna be able to spend on growth going forward.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

It's our full intention, Tal, to get back to conservative payout ratios. The path that we chose for ourselves to get there is by growing earnings and recovering from this occupancy, from this pandemic and recovering our occupancy. We think we're well on the way. As I mentioned, 100% payout is certainly just a milestone that I guess people are looking for. This is definitely not our goal to run the company at 100% AFFO payout ratio. We think that in 2024, we will be, you know, comfortably covering our distributions with AFFO, then continue bringing this payout ratio down as we get to our 95% occupancy goal and continue to grow portfolio.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay. How are you thinking about development going forward? Obviously, through COVID, you know, you pulled projects off the, you know, off the sort of active pipeline. What's your sense about how you're gonna sort of begin to reengage the development part of the business?

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Yeah. We continue to have a pretty strong development expertise within our company, and that's a great thing to have. We have great people, and we have a number of projects we talked to you about over these two years that were almost shovel-ready before the pandemic hit, and we put them on the back burner. These, over time, I believe, will be good developments, and we will continue to pursue those developments when situation is different from today, when construction costs and returns are more in line with what we would want to achieve.

Then we'll continue to look for opportunities to grow portfolio, either through the development activities or acquisitions or partnering with other capital providers or developers, just like we did in the past. That's certainly the intent. Right today in the short term, none of it is going to be happening at scale. Our focus is on occupancy recovery and bringing down the agency expenses.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay. I appreciate there's not a ton of trades, property trades in the market. Is your Like, I think I asked this question maybe about 1 year ago now, like, and I think it's still the case, but just wanted to confirm. Cheaper to buy assets right now versus build?

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Yeah. For the most part, that's what we're seeing out there. The development costs are extremely high. Any new project that I know of that is in construction is by for-profit operators, is targeting the very top of the market rates, if not well above those, and that's the only way to make math work. There's, by definition then, that requires few projects to be in the marketplace, and that's what we're seeing now.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay. That's great. Thank you very much.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Thanks, Tal.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from [Lily S.], Private Investor. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hey, good morning.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Good morning.

Speaker 9

I question regarding any statistics that you may have for reasons that occupants might move. For example, if they might move elsewhere within Chartwell from independent living to assisted living, or if they're moving to a long-term care home or outside of Chartwell altogether, perhaps stats on occupants that return from the hospital?

Karen Sullivan
President and COO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Yeah.

Speaker 9

Back to Chartwell.

Karen Sullivan
President and COO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Yeah. The majority of our current residents who leave don't go to another home. Some might go for assisted living, and we offer that in some of our properties, so they might do that. Mostly it is because of going to long-term care or passing away.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Do you have any, do you keep track of any of that data just to see how that's been changing over time?

Karen Sullivan
President and COO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Been very consistent over time. There hasn't been a big change in that. I don't know if you're thinking that maybe it's changed since or because of the pandemic, but it has been very consistent for years.

Speaker 9

Oh, no. I'm just for transparency sakes, just wondering if there's any data available or posted anywhere just for public to see.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

That's not the statistics that we report. As Karen said, the majority of move-outs are to long-term care or because of people passing away a smaller percentage would move to, be closer with the family or for other reasons. It's not a significant number of people that do that.

Speaker 9

Okay. All right. Thank you so much. That's all from me.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I'd like to turn the meeting back over to you, Mr. Volodarsky.

Vlad Volodarski
CEO, Chartwell Retirement Residences

Thanks everybody for joining us today. A reminder that our virtual AGM will be held on Thursday, May 18th at 4:30 P.M. Further details will be posted on our website later today, and we're looking forward to joining us on the call then. As always, if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to give any one of us a call. Goodbye.

Operator

Thank you. The conference call has ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

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