Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the BRP Inc's Fiscal Year 2026 Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. For participants who use the telephone line, it is recommended to turn off the sound on your device. I will now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschênes. Please go ahead, Mr. Deschênes.
Thank you, Julie. Good morning and welcome to BRP's conference call for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. Joining me this morning are Denis Le Vot , President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sébastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer. Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call and that the actual results could differ from those implied in these statements. The forward-looking information is based on certain assumptions and is subject to risks and uncertainties, and I invite you to consult BRP's MD&A for a complete list update. Also, during the call, reference will be made to supporting slides, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com under the investor relations section. With that, I'll turn the call over to Denis.
Well, thank you, Philippe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm truly honored to be here today as the new CEO of BRP. Although I've only been here in my role for two months, I can see how José Boisjoli and the team contributed to building an exceptional company and move our industry forward in meaningful ways. I am excited to lead the next chapter of this great organization built on solid foundation and deep-rooted values. Since joining BRP, I have spent my time diving into the business, meeting our talented employees, visiting our sites, and engaging with our dealers, distributors, and partners. Last week, I had the chance to ride our side-by-side vehicle and personal watercraft in Palm Bay, and believe me, that was quite an experience.
My views will continue to evolve as I refine my understanding of the business, but so far, I am energized by the passion I've seen and the immense potential ahead of us. It is already clear to me that BRP has a proud legacy, a culture of innovation and excellence, and a unique position as a leading powersports OEM poised for continued growth. I'm happy to share with you the solid results our team delivered, starting with a look at fiscal 2026 highlights on slide 4. Looking at the past year, I am impressed with how the company managed through a volatile tariff environment and challenging competitive landscape as the other OEMs were still working through excess inventory. Despite these headwinds, we delivered financial results above our initial expectation for the year and continued prioritizing our business relationships with dealers by making great strides in right-sizing our network inventory.
Several steps have been taken to strengthen the long-term prospects of our business, such as the introduction of several new key models, the divestiture of two of our marine businesses, and the introduction of our M28 strategic plan. BRP is in a solid position heading into fiscal 2027. Now, let's take a look at the year's financial results on slide 5. We ended fiscal 2026 with revenues of CAD 8.4 billion, Normalized EBITDA of CAD 1.1 billion, and normalized EPS of CAD 5.21, all coming in above guidance. We generated solid free cash flow of more than CAD 900 million, ending the year with a strong balance sheet. Turning to more operational elements, we concluded the year with a healthy network inventory position, as you can see on slide 6.
In North America, our dealers' inventory was down 17% from a year ago and down 28% over two years. We reached optimal levels for ORV and Snowmobile following a good quarter at retail, and we are progressing toward these levels for the other product lines. We are now positioned to better align wholesale with retail in fiscal 2027 and to capture market demand when the industry returns to growth. Now, turning to our retail performance by looking at global trends on slide 7. We had a solid quarter with our North American powersport retail increasing 12%, fueled by positive industry trends and market share gains in ORV and Snowmobiles. Actually, we delivered a record Q4 performance in ORV in Canada. Let's look at the other regions.
Markets in EMEA remain relatively muted with slight growth in ORV and PWC, but offset by snowmobile trends in Scandinavia due to unfavorable snow conditions. As a result, we lag the broader industry given our important Snowmobile business in the region. Meanwhile, our retail was up 1% in both Latin America and Asia Pacific, primarily driven by a strong end of season for PWC in these markets. This notably led our strongest retail quarter ever in Brazil. Overall, we saw global trends continuing to improve in Q4 with industry growth in all regions. Now, turning to slide 8 for a look at our North American retail performance by product line.
As mentioned, we had a very strong quarter with our retail up 12% and market share gains across the portfolio. The side-by-side industry remains healthy, up low- single digits in the quarter, driven by the utility segment reflecting the growing adoption of cab units. Can-Am performed remarkably well, with retail up high- single digits, thanks to the success of the new Defender HD11. For ATV, the industry was down mid-single digit, but up when excluding used models. Can-Am significantly outpaced the industry again, with retail up low- teens percent, driven by market share gains in the high CC segment following recent product introductions. As for the snowmobile, the industry was up mid-teens from a weak Q4 last year. Even though we were competing against high level of discounted and aged network inventory from other OEM, we again outpaced the industry in the quarter.
Moreover, a few weeks ago, we launched our new Ski-Doo and Lynx lineups for the upcoming season. Once again, we are by far offering our rider and dealers the most innovation in the industry with improved performance, comfort, and features. With our strong retail momentum, past the end of season inventory levels and exciting new lineups, we are well-positioned to further extend our leadership in the snowmobile industry. Finally, Q4 was off-season for three-wheel vehicles, personal watercraft, and pontoons. Retail trends were softer than last year, not only due to an extended winter season. We will get a better picture of market demand when core retail season begins in late April. Before concluding on retail, I want to further emphasize the strong impact of our new ORV models on our retail momentum on slide 9.
As I said earlier, we significantly outpaced the ORV industry in the fourth quarter, a trend that began in October when our new models were reaching dealer showroom. Since then, our SSV retail has been up about 10%. In fact, we have achieved our highest third and fourth quarter market share ever in utility, the largest and fastest-growing side-by-side segment. We had also announced the repricing of certain model year 2026 SSV, and this decision is paying off so far, resulting in a market share gain of almost 4 points for this model in Q4. As for ATV, the revamped Outlander platform and recently introduced high CC models led to a market share gain of almost 9 points in this category. These achievements show the importance of innovation, which has always been part of BRP's DNA and the driving force behind its continued success.
On that, I turn the call over to Sébastien.
Thank you, Denis, and welcome to your first BRP earnings call. Good morning, everyone. Driven by robust consumer demand across our lineups and solid execution throughout the organization, we closed the year on a strong note, delivering results ahead of expectations. Looking at the numbers, revenue grew 16% to CAD 2.5 billion, with solid double-digit growth across all product categories. The increase was primarily driven by personal watercraft, snowmobile, and ORV shipments, a favorable product mix, and positive pricing net of sales programs. Before moving into the profitability metrics on the following slide, I want to briefly address the impairment charge recorded this quarter. As discussed in the past, we entered the EV and light mobility markets during a period of rapid expansion, investing in these areas with a long-term mindset. Since then, adoption has slowed and market dynamics have become more challenging.
Given the reduced outlook for returns on our investments, we recorded an impairment charge on our EV and light mobility assets during the quarter. Still, as previously mentioned, our intention remains to continue selling EV products we have already developed while limiting the annual financial impact to CAD 25 million. Looking at gross profit. Excluding the impact of some of the EV write-down classified as cost of sales, the gross profit was CAD 582 million, representing a margin of 23.7%, up 380 basis points from last year. The improvement was driven by better capacity utilization, lower sales programs, and favorable pricing, partly offset by tariffs, higher warranty expense, and the return of variable compensation. Normalized EBITDA increased 47% to CAD 364 million and normalized EPS more than doubled to CAD 2.21.
These results translated into robust cash generation as shown on slide 13. In fact, we delivered our strongest year ever, generating over CAD 900 million of free cash flow from continuing operations. With these strong results and the proactive steps we took last fall to strengthen our debt structure, we ended the year with a solid balance sheet, including over CAD 400 million in cash and a net leverage ratio of just 1.8x . Combined with our strong retail performance and solid outlook for the business, this positions us well with the financial flexibility to continue investing in our growth while accelerating capital returns to shareholders. As such, we announced a 16% increase to our dividend and plan to be active with buybacks with over 2.6 million shares still authorized for repurchase under our NCIB.
Now turning to slide 14 for an outlook for our guidance. We entered fiscal 2027 with strong momentum, supported by solid retail growth in Q4 and continued robust demand for our newly introduced models across the portfolio. In addition, with our network inventory rightsizing largely behind us, we are well positioned to benefit from the improved alignment between wholesale and retail. With these factors in mind, we are on an even better trajectory than we thought we would be when we reported our Q3 results back in December and entered fiscal 2027 positioned to deliver north of CAD 6 of normalized EPS. However, as you know, events in the recent weeks have increased uncertainty around the broader environment, making it more challenging to anticipate how market conditions may evolve.
While we are not seeing any material impact on the demand for our products at this time, we have elected to introduce a wider than usual guidance range to reflect potential outcomes should conditions change as the year unfolds. Consequently, looking at the different scenarios, we expect our revenues to grow between 5% and 8%, our Normalized EBITDA between 6% and 16%, and our normalized EPS to end between CAD 5.50 and CAD 6.50. Now looking at how we expect the year to unfold on slide 15. Retail in fiscal 2027 continues to perform well and is tracking in line with our initial plan for the year. This positions for a strong top-line growth in the first half, driven by continued market share gains and supported by shipments that are expected to be more aligned with retail following last year's significant network inventory right size.
Revenue growth is expected to moderate in the second half as we lap the initial shipments of last year's significant product introduction. As typical at this time of the year, we take a more conservative view of the Snowmobile business for the upcoming season. Assuming demand continues to track with our plan and incorporating the impact of the recent increases in oil, energy, and commodity prices for the full year, we expect to deliver results in the upper half of our guidance range with normalized EPS of CAD 6-CAD 6.50, representing a 15%-25% growth over fiscal 2026. While we cannot predict how current events will unfold or whether they may ultimately affect our business, we recognize that they could lead to more uncertainty in the broader economy.
As such, we have assessed what it could mean for the business in an alternative scenario where demand gradually softened towards a mid-single- digit industry decline later in the year. In such a case, we expect that the impact on our first half results would be limited, as most of the planned volume is already backed by dealer orders. Any required adjustment would therefore occur primarily in the second half. Factoring in lower volumes, higher sales programs, and the impact of lower variable compensation and alignment of overhead spend to that environment, we expect that our normalized EPS could land within the lower half of our guidance range.
Still, based on what we see today across the business, most importantly with retail trends and dealer orders, we continue to track towards the upper half of the guidance range, and we are trending towards a strong first half of the year, including Normalized EBITDA growth in the 40% range for Q1. All of this supports our confidence in continuing to invest in our long-term growth while accelerating capital returns to shareholders. On that, I will turn the call over back to Denis.
Thank you, Sébastien. Before concluding, I would like to provide an update on our M28 strategic plan. The team has already progressed on many key strategic initiatives, notably by gaining market share through our new ORV products, growing our North American dealer network, expanding our international business, and improving efficiency by unlocking lean value. I look forward to working on further progressing on our targets. On the heels of a successful fiscal 2026 and fueled by our Q4 retail momentum, we are stepping into fiscal 2027 with a solid alignment and ready to deliver on our commitments. As mentioned in my introduction, I have met with many of our stakeholders since joining BRP, and they all have this in common, their passion for our products and willingness to contribute to our success.
Visiting some dealers allowed me to witness that the network is engaged and healthy and that our efforts to improve the dealer sentiment are paying off, and this is only the beginning. I had a chance to meet with some of our design and engineering colleagues, and I am convinced that we have a strong lineup coming up and an exciting pipeline. Everyone is looking forward to unveiling new innovation later this year and beyond. While the geopolitical environment remains uncertain, we are confident in our ability to adapt and execute on what we can control to continue outpacing our industry. In the longer term, we aim to strengthen BRP's position as a leading global powersports OEM, drive sustained growth, and deliver lasting value for shareholders. I look forward to having the opportunity to further engage with you in the near term.
On that note, I turn the call over to the operator for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, press star two. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Benoit Poirier from Desjardins. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you very much, and good morning, and welcome on board, Denis . Obviously very impressive engineering background in the automotive industry and in a few companies around the globe. Could you give us your first impression, and where do you see the greatest opportunities to bring value on the back of your strong experience?
Well, thank you, Benoit. Thank you very much. Hello, everyone. Yeah, very happy to join. I've been in the car industry and the auto industry for decades. That's true in Europe as well as in North America. I was the head of a Japanese brand in the U.S. a few years ago. I think that when you look at motorsports, there are two folds to your question. The first one is the similarities. There are similarities. This is a big volume industrial business, B to B to C, in which of course you have the same challenges, the value of the brand, relationship with the network, the quality of the product, the competitiveness of the company. This is very, very similar. On that one, I guess I have a huge experience. The second fold, of course, is the differences.
These are the products. Though I've been riding motorbikes all my life, you don't come to this job like you come to any job. You have to be attracted, and I am fully attracted by the products of the company. These are great, great products. These are dream machines to me. This is another part of the game which I think is very important, especially on positioning the brand, on the marketing positioning. I'm really excited to, you know, to be here.
Okay. That's great color. Just for the follow-up question, looking at fiscal year 2027, obviously we saw the forecast, the guidance for fiscal year 2027. Could you talk maybe about the assumptions from a tariff standpoint, also in terms of promotional activities and given on what you're tracking so far in terms of market share gain, if there is room to exceed the fiscal year 2028 targets in terms of side by side and ATVs?
Yeah. Good morning, Benoit. I'll start with the last part of your question. I think it's too early to call out whether or not M28's target that we will exceed it. We're certainly focused on delivering it. As you saw Denis' prepared remarks, he covered the accomplishments we've achieved on M28. One thing's for sure is we're happy with the reception that our products have gained in Q4 and with the retail momentum. As I said in my prepared remarks, we're actually ahead of where we thought we would be when we talked back in December. That's good news. The snowmobile season went well. For the puts and takes for next year, obviously we expect EBITDA margin expansion.
That EBITDA margin expansion will come from gross margin. I'll start with the overhead and the OpEx. We're planning for a little leverage on OpEx as we are making targeted investments in order to achieve M28 objectives, the elements that we covered during the investor meeting in terms of product and also dealer network. The margin growth is gonna certainly come from the added volume now that retail is more balanced with wholesale. The lean initiatives that we have, and there's some tailwind as well coming from programs. What we did build in our guidance, which we had not forecasted initially, was the oil barrel going up from $60 to $100. Our assumption initially was at $60. Going to $100 from a freight perspective, commodity is an impact of about 60 basis points that we baked into our guidance.
That's perfect. That's great color. Thank you very much for the time.
Your next question comes from Robin Farley from UBS. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. Just wanted to get more clarity around your guidance. It sounds like you're saying that what you're seeing is actually in the top half of your EPS range, and that the sort of entire bottom half would be a change from what you're seeing. But I just wanna clarify, you just mentioned that you already do have higher fuel price baked in to the top end of guidance, right? In other words, the current fuel price still puts you in the top end of that guidance.
Also, if you could give us some color around just, what's baked in for your expectation for ORV retail for this year and, like, how much you mentioned shipping in line with retail, and then if you could help us quantify sort of the dollar amount of destocking that you're comping. In other words, if you ship in line with retail and retail's flat, you would still be up X amount, you know, just to help us. Thank you.
Yes, on your question, we have baked in the financial impact of a higher barrel cost on our business, obviously. As I mentioned to Benoit, it's about a 60 basis point impact. In terms of industry expectation, we're expecting a flat industry. That's the going in assumption. Overall for all of the powersports industry, a slight increase or low- single digit for ORV. We are expecting market share gains. ORV, we're expecting market share gains. Snowmobile off a good season. Inventory corrected. We're expecting a solid season next year, so that's also baked in. Where we might see a bit of gnarliness is on the market share for personal watercraft. Other OEMs have more inventory. They finished the season higher than they were last year. We might see a bit of market share loss on that front.
As Sébastien was saying, the first half is already solid by the orders w e get from our dealers. And the gains in market share is already— the momentum is already there because the Q4 is really outpacing the market when it comes to U.S., as you asked, SSV, ORV. We are 12% growth already in the Q4 only.
Okay, great. Thank you. Just I didn't know if you could help quantify the destacking benefit to your—
Yeah, sorry. There was many questions in your one question.
I know. Sorry. It was my multi-tasking.
Now the de-stocking impact, depending on the guidance range, we're talking, let's say $350 million-$450 million positive tailwind that we're getting in next year.
Great. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Sabahat Khan from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Good morning. This is Arthur on for Sabahat . I wanted to start with the EPS guidance, specifically the bottom end of the range. I guess just in terms of your outlook for the back half of the year, can you share how you ended up at the assumption behind the mid-single- digit decline outlook?
Well, a mid-single- digit decline outlook is probably, let's say a 10% volume reduction in the back half of the year. 5%- 10% for us, wholesale reduction, which we think again today is a fair assumption. We don't know where things will go sideways, et cetera. We've lived a few disruptions the last few years with the war in Ukraine last year, the tariff uncertainty. Again, it's the assumption we took in a context where economic uncertainty may grow, consumers are being under pressure, interest rates do not go down, or even might go up. That's the assumption we took, but obviously there are multiple scenarios we could have run, but we think this is a fair scenario today with what we know. We've already built 60 basis points of headwind coming from higher fuel costs in our numbers.
Okay, that's helpful. Maybe switching to inventory. It seems like your inventory is in a good spot for the most part. Can you just comment on how you feel about your current mix? I guess as a follow-up, I think you mentioned you still see elevated levels of non-current inventory from competitors. Can you just talk about maybe what that looks like today compared to the past few quarters?
Yeah. Well, as you saw on slide 6, our inventory down 17% versus last year, 28% versus two years ago. When I look at, even for ORV, our inventory is down, prior COVID, so lower than before COVID, and our retail has actually gone up by 40%. Again, a super healthy spot. As for the competition and other OEMs, the situation has improved a lot over the last 12-18 months. For ORV, we see a few smaller OEMs that still have a lot of inventory, so they're gonna have to work through that. It's not as meaningful as we saw in past years. As I mentioned, for personal watercraft, some OEMs also have a bit more inventory. Generally, we expect that environment will lead to a less promotional environment, and that's why we built a 50 basis point tailwind coming from programs in our numbers for fiscal 2027.
Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just on retail sales, last question for me. Another good quarter of share gains. Can you just maybe talk about the uptake of your new product offerings and maybe kind of what your expectations are for that over the coming year?
Yeah, for sure. There's a lot of new product coming in the year, right? What we can say is that the momentum is based on innovation, right? This is a healthy momentum that we're having, and the growth that we're posting for next year is based on that. The Ski-Doo is starting very well with the new 600cc engine that we've launched, right? The 600RR, which is a top-notch engine with very low inertia, very responsive, and we have a very good order trend on the Ski-Doo for that reason, right? We also renewed all our platforms on the utility for the Ski-Doos. Of course, the most important innovation in a way is the Defender HD11 we talked about, right?
Because Defender HD11 is a complete new platform, new engines. We have a new dashboard. We have a 10 in screen on an SSV. This is a very big hit. More importantly, this is the biggest growing segment by far is the cab. We're having a success. We can hardly produce as the demand is going. This is a very good position that we're having for the future. This is mostly the two that are fueling the growth for 2027.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Hey, guys. Good morning. Welcome, Denis. I guess, you know, first question for you, and it's probably a tough one because you've been in the seat for all of two months here, but, you know, what sort of changes, you know, can we expect at BRP either strategically or operationally or financially?
Yeah, it's not a tough question, it's a bad question because actually, I don't see the point to make changes. You know, I'm sitting in a company which is growing 7% in revenue to CAD 8.4 billion, as you saw, which is posting CAD 8.9 billion or CAD 9 billion revenue for next year and also is believing hard in its M28 plan of CAD 9.5 billion revenue two years down the road. I don't think that it's the moment for very quick and short-term changes, right? Still, beyond our plan for 2028, there will be the longer term plan that we have to build all together in the company and this is gonna be one of my jobs.
I'm very confident in the short-term position and the business that we are running. I can tell you that the product lineup that I've seen, that you haven't seen, for the years to come is very, very solid. This is the chance that I'm having because we have a plan. Our plan is solid, and we believe in it, so it gives me a little time in order to prepare with the team, the next, longer term plan. This is where potentially there could be a novelties, but this will come in due time.
Got it. Very helpful. Just to follow up on that, you mentioned the M28 targets. Glad to hear that you're backing them this morning. If I take the high end of guidance this year on EPS of CAD 6.50, it's quite a leap to CAD 8. Can you remind us what's driving that largely margin expansion in 2028?
Well, the drive in margin expansion is gonna come with the volume growth. Obviously, part of the M28 plan is gains in market share and ORV, and especially in side-by-side. With that, it's gonna be fueled by dealer network expansion. As you saw this year, we finished above our target. We have a target of opening new dealers as well in the coming year. It's a combination of volume efficiency gain with the lean initiatives that we have. And also continuing to execute and build dealer engagement around the brand.
Got it. Can I sneak in one more on tariffs? I think somebody asked this earlier, and I'm not sure we got a number, but what was the incremental tariff in 2026 and what's the expected tariff in 2027?
Yeah. The expectation is a flat year-over-year tariff assumption, so we did not build anything coming out of the recent Supreme Court ruling in terms of saving. We have a CAD 90 million impact built in our guidance for this year, and it was also ballparked CAD 90 million as well last year. A flattish tariff impact.
Got it. Perfect. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Mark Petrie from CIBC. Please go ahead.
Good morning. I wanted to ask, actually, you just touched on it, Seb, but on the dealer network growth, as you noted, you added a little bit more or a few more than planned for fiscal 2026. I think the plan was 40 for fiscal 2027. Just update that. Then I'm curious just to hear, you know, anecdotally what sort of reaction you're hearing from your existing dealers and then any color you can add just with regards to sort of where those dealers are going and a sense of sort of the geographic opportunities.
Yeah. Maybe I take this one. We grew in North America, mainly in the U.S. by 36 dealers this year, right? Of course, you can imagine with the momentum that we're having on our products, the growth that we're having, this movement is partially natural, if I may say, right? We are attractive to dealers. As I said before, the dealer sentiment is increasing, and we work on that. Going forward, as Seb just said, the biggest potential we're having is still in the ORV in North America and especially in the U.S. The momentum is here with Seb, right? With the HD11 , with a 12% growth in the Q4.
This is something that we are hardly working on. I would say that apart from this, we are also growing in Brazil. We are also growing in other zones of the world where we can also expand the size of our dealerships.
To your last question, in terms of dealer feedback, in some states in the U.S., we are under-penetrated. We haven't expanded our dealer network in the last five, six years, and so we were overdue to do it. Most of the dealers that we open are actually existing dealers that decide to open a new rooftop, either by acquiring a dealer and bringing in the brand or adding a rooftop. Given this under-penetration, we're not seeing any a lot of friction from the existing dealer base.
Okay. Thanks. I just wanted to follow up and just to sort of clarify, you aren't seeing any reaction from consumers or dealers in the last month or so as macro uncertainties have elevated or how are those sort of conversations with the dealers gone or evolved in that timeframe?
No, the inventory being low and the momentum being high, we cannot say today that we have a reaction by our dealers on that one. On the contrary, we are manufacturing as quickly as we can. From the client standpoint, remember what motorsports is, right? Our client are rather wealthy households. We are above CAD 150,000 a year, but in the north of that to CAD 170,000-something dollars per year. That's why, with the team, we decided to have this confirming the first half of the year and being cautious on the second half of the year in our guidance.
Yeah, fair enough. Okay. Appreciate the comments. Welcome, Denis, and all the best.
Thanks.
Your next question comes from Anthony Bonadio from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking our questions. I wanted to start out with your lean value initiative. I think you guys had another CAD 200 million to go from the original CAD 350 million when you presented to us in October. Can you just talk about how much benefit you're expecting in fiscal 2027 and maybe how you're thinking about the level of flow through there versus reinvestment at this point?
Yeah. Well, obviously, it's a big priority of the team to drive lean. We saw we delivered CAD 150 million last year. The expectation this year is 100 basis points value coming from this lean initiative, so that's what's baked into the guidance. Obviously, we are facing inflation as we do every year, and the expectation is that pricing will offset inflationary costs that we see. Globally, I'm happy with how we're tracking, what we're driving and this year, if we deliver the 100 basis points, we'll make delivering the M28 objective certainly achievable for next year.
Got it. That's helpful. Just a follow-up question on tariffs. I know there's sort of a refund request process underway. Can you just talk about maybe how you're thinking about getting any of that money back and just any thoughts on the timeline at this point?
Yeah. Honestly, we're not in a hurry. Obviously, we like to get the money as quick as possible, but we're still monitoring. We're gonna see how the process is and the likelihood of capturing it. I'm not a big fan of spending money on lawyers if we're not able to get that money. Obviously, we won't leave any money on the table. Once the process is clearly established and the certainty is there, we will obviously file for refunds.
It's not in our guidance.
Yeah. Yeah, and we haven't baked that in our guidance, obviously.
Got it. Thanks so much, guys.
Your next question comes from Martin Landry from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, guys. I was wondering how you know if there's a correlation between industry demand and oil prices. Have you looked at how the industry behaved in past period of oil shocks? Just trying to understand a little bit if there's any at all correlations. I understand that so far you haven't seen any impact on demand, but it'd be great to have a little bit more color on if there's any correlation between oil prices and industry demand.
Yeah, sure. Question, Martin. Obviously, when we look to the last time we saw oil prices this high was when the Ukraine war started and we did not see an impact on demand. It's all a question of where the barrel goes, how long does it stay there, and what's the impact on the overall economy. I think that's the biggest factor. There's a question of the nature. How big it is, the extent, how long it lasts, and which market is being more impacted. That's why we preferred this morning to issue kind of a lower, wider guidance range and provide kind of a potential downside scenario for the back half of the year.
Okay, that's fair. In light of that, you know, rent has gone up a lot more than WTI. I was wondering, you're talking about your guidance assuming flat industry demand. Can you break that down between regions? Just trying to see what assumptions you've used for North America and then what assumptions you've used for EMEA, LatAm, and Asia-Pacific, if possible.
Yeah. Again, I think we look at it from a macro level. Our volumes in the Middle East are quite low, less than 1%. Obviously we were more pessimistic there. But generally, given that all consumers can be impacted from higher oil prices, from inflation, from interest rates, and given the affluence of our customers is pretty much standard around the world, we decided to apply the similar assumption globally.
Which will still permit growth, don't misunderstand, because last year it was about snow for Europe, so hopefully snow will be here this season. We outpaced the market in even if they are flattish in Latin America and Asia. As we said already during the call, our growth in North America will mostly be the market share in the ORVs in the U.S., so.
Okay, that's helpful. Denis, welcome.
Thanks, Martin.
Your next question comes from Xian Siew from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Hi, guys. Thanks for the question. I wanted to ask first about the first quarter you talked about EBITDA being up 40%. Can you maybe give us a little bit more in terms of what's underlying the underlying assumptions for the quarter in terms of, like, revenue? Because it does feel like you know, you have kind of a lot more visibility to 1 Q. Yeah, just curious on some more guidance on that.
Yeah, certainly, last year, you might recall that it was a quarter where we undershipped because of the inventory depletion, especially on personal watercraft. It's a quarter where we reported swap provision related to snowmobile. It was a tough snowmobile season. We could see revenues grow quite sizably, obviously to drive this big growth in EBITDA. Also, on year-round, we'll be seeing increases as well, in terms of overall revenue growth coming from the HD11, the side-by-side, and also ORV. Ballpark, you could see a CAD 300 million revenue growth in the quarter, and that obviously is trickling down to solid EBITDA and EPS.
Okay, great. I want to ask about the utility segment. Obviously, you guys are making a lot of progress, and the new platform is quite impressive. But just kind of wondering, are the share gain, do you think it's from new customers, existing customers kind of trading up, maybe customers who entered the industry, I don't know, in 2020 and are now kind of looking to upgrade their product? Or like, I'm just curious about kind of the customer base that you're attracting and if you're kind of seeing a replacement cycle in utility. Thanks.
Yeah. We have both actually because that's true, we are growing in the utility, which means that we are bringing more people, let's say, conquest on the market that maybe we are on the rec part of the segment. As a global figure, I would tell you that we are bringing, like, 230,000 new people to our family every year, right? We are really on a dynamic of growing our market share and growing our base of clients, so we are attracting people. The offer coming to utility that we're having, again, on the HD11 is really a hit, right? By the vehicle, by the new three-cylinder engine we're having, the positioning on the vehicle makes it, I mean, a complete hit on the sub-segment of the utility, and we are really producing full speed on that one.
Okay, great. Thanks and good luck.
Thanks.
Your next question comes from Luke Hannan from Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning and welcome, Denis. So I wanted to follow up. You mentioned as far as what you're baking into guidance right now, I think you had said a 50 basis points tailwind from sales programs, assuming you stay within the top half of the guidance range there. What would be implied for you then to be at the lower end of the guidance range? Would you assume sort of no tailwinds from sales programs, or would there be a headwind there?
Yeah. The lower end of the guidance obviously means a tougher macro, more competitiveness as well, a more promotional environment. Certainly, we would lose that tailwind of 50 basis points coming from programs, and we have a favorable impact at the top end of the guidance coming from volume and mix of about 40 basis points and probably lose a big part of that as well.
Thanks. I wanted to follow up also with Telwater and basically just where things stand as of today and when we might expect to hear a little more on that.
Well, as you probably saw, the Telwater business is still classified as a discontinued operation, so that means that it's still available for sale. It is a great business, a great management team as well running the operations there. Probably revenue's likely about CAD 100 million with a EBITDA margin potential in the low teens. So good business. We're not in a rush to sell it, so obviously we're in the market. If there are buyers that are interested, they'll approach us. But that's where we stand today. Yeah.
Great. Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Denis, looking forward to working with you. Just a question on the HD11 production kind of ramp. I think you said you're producing full speed. Does that mean you're at 100% of where you want to be, or is that still ramping?
No, no. We are 100% of where we wanted to be. The ramp-up is totally finished, and we are at the right level of production right now. Now, I just mentioned that because this is one of the product which is a real hit on the market, and it's a good thing that most of the parts of the factory are working three shifts on this vehicle.
Okay, great. Just curious, in times of, like, elevated oil and gas prices, have you seen increased utility demand in those regions? Thanks.
I can't say there's a high correlation. Obviously, if there were to be a slowdown, we would expect less of a slowdown in utility because of the novelty of the HD11. There's obviously impacts on the ag market as well, on the construction industry that are coming from high oil prices, so it's difficult to call a shot as to what the actual outcome.
Yeah, that would be the global economy more.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Jaime Katz from Morningstar. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. You know, we haven't heard too much about demand trends on premium or whether you guys have seen any sort of value-seeking behavior. I guess if you have any color on whether attachment rates are staying consistent or if there has been any value-seeking behavior, that would be really helpful to hear about.
Sorry, Jaime, we lost you. Not sure if you're still there.
I'm sorry. Can you hear me?
Operator, maybe we go to the next question, and we bring back Jaime later.
I'm able to hear Jaime.
Operator?
Yeah.
Can you guys hear me?
Hi there.
Hi. You can hear me, but they can't.
Correct. Yes, this is the operator. We experienced some technical difficulty. Just one moment, please.
Operator, we can hear you now.
Perfect. Okay. Are you able to hear Jaime also?
Can you guys hear me?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Awesome.
Amazing.
I guess I was interested in hearing more about demand trends, given your tilt to premium, whether you guys have seen any value-seeking behavior via things like, have attachment rates stayed the same, or is there anything that is changing given sort of the increasing uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment?
We haven't seen any changes. The trend has been towards more the affluent customer in the last, let's say 12-18 months, and that trend continues. BRP is obviously, as you well know, positioned more towards the higher end. That consumer is, I guess, more isolated from inflationary pressures, high interest rates, et cetera. Even that kind of shields us a bit from a potential slowdown, if it were to happen. Nonetheless, we monitor overall retail trends continuously to make sure that we understand where the trend is going towards.
Yeah. I guess on that note, has there been any difference in mix in financed versus cash purchases?
No. Generally we still see about 30% of the retail financing going through our dedicated partners. FICO scores remain high. I haven't seen any changes between this quarter and any previous quarters.
Great. Helpful. Thank you guys so much.
Your next question comes from Cameron Doerksen from National Bank. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good morning. A question on free cash flow. You had a very strong year in fiscal 2026, but there was a fairly nice tailwind from working capital. So just wondering what your expectations here are for fiscal 2027 on free cash flow and what we should expect from the working capital.
Yeah, it depends on where we land on the guidance, but we're expecting another strong year next year on free cash flow, maybe in the range of, let's say, CAD 750 million-CAD 800 million. CapEx in the CAD 400 million range, as you saw. Another good year next year.
In that context, you know, it looks like you're gonna continue to build cash on the balance sheet. Obviously you've announced the dividend increase this morning, but I guess, where are the capital allocation priorities here? I mean, the CapEx is, you know, fairly stable, but you know, just wondering what your expectation is here for capital deployment.
Yeah. We've strengthened further the balance sheet last year with debt refunding and debt maturity extension. We're obviously in a very good position. We still have 2.6 million shares to repurchase under the NCIB, and our intention is to be active on that front.
Okay.
As I said before, sorry, Denis speaking. This gives us a solid ground to prepare the next plan that we will be preparing during the year.
Absolutely. No, it's a good position to be in. Thanks very much.
Your next question comes from Alice Wycklendt from Baird. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to touch on in a little more detail on the utility side-by-side segment, and particularly that cab category that you called out. Maybe just provide a little more detail on the impact that that's having and how long you think momentum can be sustained in that product category.
Well, it's a trend we've seen over the last few years, and we've invested in capacity because it's different to build a cab unit than a non-cab unit in the plant. We have invested in capacity. The new Defender platform was designed around it being a cab unit, so that's the specific design purpose. What we're seeing is that consumers are seeking automotive features more and more in their vehicles. Obviously an enclosed space, heating, air conditioning, connectivity, and that's what we're offering. Now the HD11 was the first model on the new platform, and obviously we will be introducing other models in the HD10, HD8 in the coming years. That obviously is gonna increase the addressable market that we have. We expect continued growth on the utility segment for the next few years.
Thanks. That's helpful. Maybe just checking the box on guidance. What kind of interest rate assumptions are embedded in your outlook?
We've assumed a flat interest rate compared to this year. No changes in the Federal Reserve rates.
Great. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Catherine Sung from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Just to follow up on the margin guidance, should the EV rightsizing be a benefit to the margin outlook?
It is a benefit. Last year we were investing in the launching of the two-wheel product. When you look at the overall EBITDA margin growth that we're planning this year compared to last year, yes, EV is a tailwind of about 50 basis points, which is gonna be offset by investments that we are making on the M28 plan, i.e., R&D, so product lineup. Despite having a very fresh lineup, we're gonna continue investing, and also on the sales organization and network organization as well. We're expecting no operational leverage coming from OpEx investments this year versus last year. Yeah, a tailwind, but compensated by other investments.
Okay. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Gerrick Johnson from Seaport Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you, Denis. Welcome. Maybe a finer point on the oil impact on costs. Sébastien, can you remind us the percent of cost of goods sold that shipping would be and then also resins? How far are those contracted out? How locked in are you on those prices?
Yeah. From a commodity point of view, we do have long-term agreements with our suppliers. We are pretty much hedged. Obviously freight costs, I probably won't go in too much detail for competitive reasons, but it is an important part of our business. As I mentioned, going from $60 to $100 per barrel is a 60 basis point impact on our business, Gerrick.
Okay. Okay. You're gonna make us do the math. That's fine.
Given you're back, I'll have you work a bit. It's nice to hear your voice.
Thanks. Hey, on utility, back on that topic, are your dealers seeing any sort of impact or increase in demand for utility from businesses, farmers, ranchers, et cetera, owing to the reinstatement of bonus depreciation 100% in the U.S.?
Yeah. Well, certainly, that has been a driver for small businesses as well and not just we'll call it the commercial business. We also have commercial programs in place to drive awareness on that consumer group. Yes, we are seeing a benefit coming from, we'll call it the commercial business. Is it 100% driven by the accelerated depreciation? I don't know, but certainly it's an area that we focused on.
Fantastic. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Gerrick. Welcome back.
Your next question comes from Jonathan Goldman from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, team, and thanks for taking my questions. Most of them have been asked, but just maybe to put a finer point on it, the walk to margin expansion, gross margin expansion year-over-year, can you remind me of the drivers there? There's a tailwind from lower promo, freight headwind of 60 basis points, and a volume mix tailwind of 40 basis points. Is that right?
Yeah. Let me give you the EBITDA margin bridge. OpEx stable year-over-year as a percentage. Volume and mix, a tailwind of 40 basis points. Sales program, 50 basis points. Pricing net of inflation, that's a wash. Lean cost improvements, 100 basis points. Overhead investments in the gross margin, about 40 basis points negative. That brings us to 150 basis points. The recent events that we talked about oil prices being higher is 60 basis points. At the top end of the guidance range, we're looking at a number just shy of 14% EBITDA margin. At the lower end of the guidance, we're about just north of 13%.
Okay. That's helpful. Maybe another one on the competitive environment. I know you've baked in some conservatism to the guide, kind of a wide range of outcomes. Have you seen any other competitors maybe move quicker to try and, you know, respond to consumer anxiety and kind of lower prices to take some share ahead of any sort of headwinds?
No, we haven't seen anything. Given, I think, the big plus we have as an industry is that everyone's been diligent in reducing inventories over the last 18 months. I think it positions everyone and the industry in a good position to face a potential downside if it were to happen.
I guess related to that last one, on the industry inventory, could you give us an update on where we are versus current and non-current? Maybe it obviously differs by product line.
Yeah. I did share a bit of comments earlier, but snowmobile, we're in a decent shape. Obviously, winter has decided to hang around a bit longer than we all would like, and obviously that helps on the snowmobile side. Personal watercraft, some OEMs have a bit more non-current inventory, and so that's gonna probably hurt our market share for the next season. Generally, aside from a few small OEMs, the overall ORV inventory is in good shape.
Okay. That's good color. I'll get back. Thank you. Thanks.
Thank you.
There are no more questions. I will turn the call back over to Mr. Deschênes to close the meeting.
Thank you, Julie. Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning and for your interest in BRP. We look forward to speaking with you again on May 28 for our first quarter conference call. Thanks again, everyone, and have a good day.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.