Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Emera First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised, today's conference is being recorded.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Erin Bauer, Director, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Chris, and thank you all for joining us this morning. Emera's Q1 earnings release was distributed this morning via Newswire and the financial statement, Management's discussion and analysis and the presentation being referenced on this call are available at our website atamera.com. Joining me this morning for the call are Scott Balfour, Emera's President and Chief Executive Officer Greg Glendon, Emera's Chief Financial Officer and other members of Emera's management Before we begin, I will take a moment to advise you that this morning's discussion will include forward looking information, which is subject to the cautionary statement contained in the supporting slide. Today's discussion and presentation will also include references to non GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the appendix for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non GAAP measures to the closest GAAP financial measure.
And now, I will turn things over to Scott.
Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. This morning, we released our Q1 financial results, but I'm pleased to say we're off to a solid start this year. Our business continued to perform well and delivered quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $0.96 an increase of $0.17 We continued to execute on our capital program and we're on track to invest over $2,000,000,000 this year. And on the regulatory front, following important rate case settlements for Peoples Gas and for New Mexico Gas last year, We've now filed a base rate application for Tampa Electric. Our financial results and the underlying drivers of our growth this quarter Highlight the overall strength of our business.
We continue to see strong earnings growth from our U. S.-based utilities and our reduced corporate interest costs reflect the steps we've taken to strengthen our balance sheet. And our marketing and trading business continues to provide Low risk opportunity for us to earn strong returns when market conditions present as they did this quarter. All of our major capital projects remain on time and on budget, while our teams continue to follow the enhanced health and safety protocols we put in place last spring as part of our pandemic response plans. We remain committed to investing between $7,400,000,000 $8,600,000,000 through the end of 2023 in renewable and cleaner generation, system reliability and integrity, infrastructure modernization and customer focused technologies such as smart meters.
Our investments are expected to drive robust rate base growth of 7.5% to 8.5% on an average annualized basis over the period. Carbon reduction has been core to Emera's strategy for more than 15 years. It's been a key driver of our growth and it's what inspires our culture of innovation. In February, we announced our climate commitment, a set of clear future focused decarbonization goals. And we also shared our vision to achieve net zero emissions by 2,050.
This commitment builds on our successful track record of meaningful carbon reductions already achieved and highlights our dedication to eliminating coal and advancing de carbonization. We're encouraged by the alignment with customers and policymakers who are also driving towards a lower current future. Our proven strategy and successful track record positions Emer well to help lead the energy transition, but critically in doing so in a way that never loses sight of affordability and reliability. We fully expect that opportunities for continued and incremental investment will present themselves as a result of our dedication to reducing emissions and the global shift to a cleaner economy. And this in turn will also continue to drive long term value creation for shareholders.
The Atlantic Loop is an incremental opportunity we are pursuing. And while this remains a complex idea with many partners and stakeholders, We continue to be encouraged by the momentum and the engagement from the federal government, provincial governments and our utility partners. We hope to have more to say about this project initiative later this year. Our ESG commitments are core to our strategy. And while our environmental commitments are driving our capital investment program, our social and governance commitments shape our culture of doing the right thing For our customers, communities, investors and each other, whether it's our commitments to inclusion and diversity across the business, Continuing to advance our best in class corporate governance or being an employer of choice everywhere we work, our ESG efforts speak to the core of who we are.
At Emera, our top priority is always safety. We're committed to an Emera where no one gets hurt ever. This means fostering a safety culture where team members are personally responsible for their own safety and safety of others and are empowered to speak up and act when they see potentially unsafe conditions or behaviors. Over the last number of years, We've seen our safety record improve. And in 2020, we achieved our best ever safety results with the fewest number of injuries ever recorded in our business.
This is a significant accomplishment in any year, but especially so given how we adapted and added new protocols in However, recent contractor fatalities and serious safety incidents across our business tragically highlight The work in this important area is never done, but I'm encouraged by the team's commitment. And I can tell you that we are more resolved than ever Before I pass the call over to Greg to take you through the financial results, I want to briefly update you on the Tampa Electric rate case. Early last month, we took the next step in the regulatory process and filed our petition with the Florida Public Service Commission. Our request includes an increase of base rates of US295 $1,000,000 in 2022 and an incremental US130 $1,000,000 over 2023 2024. If approved, these base rate increases Support and enable the significant investments in cleaner, greener and smarter energy solutions, all while keeping rates among the lowest in Florida and below the national average.
As I've noted in the past, our rate request is relatively straightforward. About half the revenue asked is related to major capital items, smart meters, Big Bend modernization and solar investments. Another 40% relates to depreciation expense, to increase depreciation rates in line with the depreciation study filed last December And to recover accelerated depreciation and dismantlement costs associated with the early retirement of Co Units 1, 23 at the Big Bend Station. The remainder of the increase is for other smaller items. We expect the decision from the Public Service Commission later this year to allow for new base rates to be effective January 1, 2022.
Finally, before I turn it over to Greg to take you through the financial results, I'd like to take a moment to thank and congratulate Nancy Tower, who officially retired as President and CEO of Tampa Electric last week. As you know, Nancy had an impressive career at Emera. She's been a key part of the growth story too. Her accomplishments are many, and we're very grateful to have benefited from her leadership over the years. On behalf of the entire team, thank you, Nancy.
You will be missed. With Nancy's retirement, Archie Collins, who is with us on this call, officially assumes the role President and CEO of Tampa Electric. Archie also has a long history with Emera and most recently has been part of the Tampa Electric leadership team. He's a natural successor to continue the positive momentum of the Tampa Electric team as they continue to deliver value for customers, cultivate a strong safety culture, reducing carbon emissions and driving growth at the utility. Overall, I'm pleased with our solid start to 2021, and I'm incredibly proud of the team and how they continue to respond to the challenges of the global COVID-nineteen pandemic.
Despite being asked to change the way they work to keep themselves and each other safe, the team hasn't missed a beat. Our businesses continue to perform well and our teams continue to deliver the energy our customers need. Looking forward to the rest of 2021 and beyond, I remain confident that Emera is well And now I'll turn it over to Greg to take you through the financial results. Greg?
Thank you, Scott, and thank you all for joining us today. This morning, we reported Q1 adjusted earnings of $243,000,000 And adjusted earnings per share of $0.96 compared to $193,000,000 $0.79 in the same period last year. As we'll take you through in a moment, growth in adjusted earnings per share was primarily driven by our U. S.-based utilities, lower corporate costs and improved earnings in our Marketing and Trading business, partially offset by a stronger Canadian dollar and a higher share count. Our utility operations and the corporate services that support them are the driver of Emera's growth.
Since 2017, the 1st full year with TECO in our portfolio, these operations have been generating predictable And consistently increasing adjusted earnings per share driven by investments in rate base, disciplined O and N management and working constructively with our regulators and customer groups. Between 2017 2020, regulated and corporate EPS grew by 5%. Over the same period, we saw our corporate interest Costs trend lower, largely due to our strength and balance sheet. And in 2020, we're seeing these trends continue. With over 95% of our earnings coming from regulated operations on an annual basis, the overall quality and predictability of our earnings and cash flow is high.
And the continued execution of our strategy, making investments to safely provide cleaner and more reliable energy to our customers, While ensuring that energy remains affordable, we'll continue to drive growth in earnings, cash flow and dividends. Both of our unregulated earnings are attributed to Emera Energy. Emera Energy's earnings have historically been positive on an Annual basis, but they will vary both quarter to quarter and year to year, depending on market conditions causing volatility in our consolidated results. While their financial results are not as predictable as those from a regulated business, Emera Energy's low risk operations provide us with the opportunity to generate earnings and cash flow upside And in this quarter, our unregulated earnings per share grew by $0.07 primarily due to improved earnings from our Marketing and Trading business. It hasn't been an easy time for this business over the past few years, but the February winter storm event in the Midwest drove pricing volatility across the U.
S. Mirror Energy was well positioned to benefit from this volatility while maintaining supply to their customers. And now I'd like to turn our attention to the details of the regulated and corporate earnings. Growth in the Q1 was largely driven by lower corporate interest And long term compensation costs, new base rates and customer growth at Peoples Gas and higher AFUDC earnings and customer growth at Tampa Electric, partially offset by a stronger Canadian dollar and a higher share count. Pretax corporate interest costs were lower in the quarter by $13,000,000 primarily due to the retirement of debt from the proceeds of the sale of Emera Maine last year.
Lower short term interest rates and a stronger Canadian dollar also contributed to the decrease. This is a continuation of a trend that we have seen since the Q2 of 2020 and reflects the steps we've taken to strengthen our balance sheet. Pretax corporate OMD was $16,000,000 lower in the quarter. Of this variance, dollars 12,000,000 relates to lower long term compensation costs. This decrease was driven by differences between Emera's 50 day average share price leading into the quarter end and our share price at quarter end.
Because these gains are driven by the timing and trend of share price movements, they are likely to reverse out over the balance of the year. Excluding the impact of a stronger Canadian dollar, earnings from our Gas and Infrastructure segment increased by $14,000,000 in the Q1 of 2020 Over the Q1 of 2020. Growth was primarily driven by new higher base rates at Peoples Gas and New Mexico Gas and strong customer growth of 5% in Peoples Gas. 1st quarter earnings from Tampa Electric were also solid. Excluding the impact of a stronger Canadian dollar, their quarterly earnings Our next question comes from the line of David.
Please go ahead. Thank you, Steve. Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Steve.
Good morning, everyone. Compared to the Q1 of 2020, milder weather reduced earnings by US8 $1,000,000 Earnings from our remaining utilities were relatively Quarter over quarter. However, I will pause to mention the results of Nova Scotia Power. Here in Nova Scotia, we experienced an incredibly mild winter. Between November March, weather conditions were some of the mildest we've seen in the past 50 years.
Unfortunately, for Nova Scotia Power, this created an earnings headwind. Because Nova Scotia Power is a winter peaking utility, it will be very challenging for them to make up the earnings loss in this quarter over the balance of the year. As a result, we have updated earnings guidance to reflect the expectation that they will earn in the low end of their ROE bands this year. And finally, both foreign exchange and a higher share count provided headwinds. Fortunately, we are partially hedged against FX movements this year.
And at the end of the Q1, we have Such that a penny change in the FX rate will move annual adjusted EPS by about a penny through 2021. On an unhedged basis, the same penny change in FX rates would move EPS by approximately $0.02 Before we open the line for questions, I would like to take the opportunity to highlight the expected upcoming step changes in our operating cash flow. As you know, over the past couple of years, we've been focused on strengthening our balance sheet. Since 2018, We have retired over $1,000,000,000 of holding company debt, reduced our Holdco debt to total debt ratio to below 40% and returned to our capital target capital structure, all while maintaining sufficient liquidity. We've also become more regulated, which has improved the quality of our cash flows.
And while the select asset sales we affected temporarily paused our cash flow growth, we always knew there were significant cash flow events on the horizon. Over the past 12 months, our business has generated $1,400,000,000 of normalized operating cash flow. And While the results this quarter include the cash flow impacts of the US110 $1,000,000 of incremental gas costs incurred at New Mexico Gas, These prudently incurred costs will be recovered from customers over a timeframe to be finalized with the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission. By the end of 2022, we will see our operating cash flow increasing significantly to over $2,000,000,000 driven by a few events. If, as approved, the Tampa Electric Rate Case will generate an incremental US295 million dollars of vape revenues and We expect to incremental US280 $1,000,000 of operating cash flow.
In the second half of this year, we expect Aladora Island Link will be commissioned. Once commissioned, our current non cash earnings will convert to cash, increase our operating cash flow by approximately $75,000,000 And new base rates at Peoples Gas and New Mexico Gas came into effect at the beginning of the year. We've seen incremental benefit of these rates in the Q1 of This year and we'll see further upside over the balance of the year. And finally, we expect to continue to see natural growth in our operating cash flow. With this stronger operating cash flow profile, we have a clear path to achieve the target credit metrics set by the rating agencies.
Our continued execution of our funding plan will support achieving our credit objectives. Last quarter, we We issued $110,000,000 of equity to our dividend reinvestment and at the market equity programs and raised $200,000,000 of preferred share financing. Our base shelf has an additional $300,000,000 of capacity remaining. And as I've noted in the past, we have the balance sheet capacity to issue approximately $500,000,000 of hybrid Our solid start to 2021 sets us up well for the balance of the year. And while the quarter does not make the year, I believe we are well positioned to deliver earnings growth and drive investment for our investors, while delivering cleaner, reliable, affordable energy for our customers.
And before I turn the presentation back over to Aaron, I would like to welcome Dave Zazanson back to our finance team. Effective May 1, Dave has assumed the role of Vice President, Investor
Thank you, Greg. This concludes the presentation. We would now like to open up the call to take questions from
Your first question comes from Linda Ezergailis of TD Securities. Your line is open.
Thank you. Congratulations to a strong start to the year. I'm wondering if you can give us a sense some more context around your Tampa Electric rate filing, Specifically, as it relates to inflationary pressures, what are your embedded assumptions And if inflationary pressures increase more than expected, might there be any sort of relief or how are you thinking about that?
Hey, Linda, it's Scott. So thank you for the question. And let me start and then Greg, maybe you can help. I know Archie Collins is on the line too. We certainly, Linda, as it relates to the rate filing, a lot of that Capital that is a big driver of the rate requirement, the revenue requirement that's part of that Rate Case is already well in motion in a lot of cases actually, Either the work is already complete or well advanced and certainly much of it has been cost controlled, not all of it As some of the solar program continues to advance, but of course, smart meters and Big Bend modernization Work is all well advanced with all major equipment and labor Costs already committed and contracted or procured or in some cases even in place.
And of course, as I mentioned, the rest of the revenue ask really relates to depreciation, which doesn't impact things as much. With A broader sort of override lens on inflation. Greg, anything that you can add to Linda's question?
Linda, maybe just a couple of things. I mean, if you we kind of think of our inflation, I guess, Exposure, if you will, in that particular business through a few different lenses. Obviously, to the extent that it resulted in higher Commodity prices or fuel prices, in particular, that would flow through the fuel adjustment mechanism that we have. We've done a pretty good job of terming out our debt, so we don't have a lot of risk from an interest rate perspective. Obviously, we may see some on the capital side.
And if that's the case, then obviously, the capital that we're investing Could be slightly higher. But then really the area that might more on a shorter term basis impact us would be just on our day to day operating costs. But with the we can control the labor through our existing labor agreements and those kinds of things. So there's probably a relatively minor Peace that we would have a little bit exposure. We did build in an inflation assumption that we think is sufficient in the rate case filing.
So At this point in time, I don't think it's anything that you should be overly concerned about.
Thank you. And as a follow-up, I just wanted to Also get some more of your thoughts on your financing plans. Recognizing that You still have some room on your at the market program. Is it reasonable to assume that that still is a lever That could be likely. And just maybe some more thoughts on how you might turn out Potentially, your drawn credit facilities and how any sort of thoughts of dividend policy Past 2022 might inform how you approach your permanent financing plan?
So Linda, this is Greg. Let me start. So I think you accurately characterize that we're happy With our ATM program as well as our DRIP, we're going to continue with those 2 mechanisms to raise common equity. We find it very cost effective and allows To raise it when we need it, no earlier or no later. We've been kind of historically over the last, I'd A couple of years raising about $50,000,000 a quarter on our asset market equity program.
I think that's kind of a run rate that you should probably assume and Something relatively consistent with that on our DRIP as well. We're always looking At our credit facilities and is there an opportunity to term some of that out? You may have noticed in the quarter, we did exactly that at Tampa Electric with an $800,000,000 Bond issuance that effectively took their revolver down to 0 balance. So we'll continue to look at that. No immediate plans And then as far as dividend policy, I think that's ultimately a Board decision and We would expect that our current guidance, there'll be some updating of that in the Q4 of this year as we traditionally have done in the past.
Thank you. I'll jump back in the queue.
Your next question comes from Rob Hope of Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Yes. Good morning, everyone. First question is just on the opportunities under development. You continue to Add, we'll call, dollars 170,000,000 of potential opportunities in 2021. How are you seeing some of those shorter Opportunities progressing.
And then it looks like Atlantic Loop is more of a back half kind of a next step for
Yes, Rob, it's Greg. I think good morning. The projects that we have under development really haven't changed. As you highlighted, about half of it is Atlantic Loop or something like that. Now the Atlantic Loop is a collection of projects, some of which will go forward irrespective of the Atlantic For example, a stronger interconnection between us and New Brunswick.
So those projects are progressing We have some modest projects, I would say, still under development for 2021. And whether they land in Sure or the early part of next year, I still think it's a little premature to know that for sure.
Yes. Maybe if I just sort of speak to the I know the reference to Atlantic Loop is what catches some Attention with media and the like, but the path to continue to decarbonize Nova Scotia, the path to Retire the coal plants in Nova Scotia involves much more than the Atlantic Loop, the idea of Transmission interconnect, that's certainly an important backbone enabling component of that journey to continue to decarbonize and close those coal plants. But there's a lot of infrastructure that needs to be built and enhanced in Nova Scotia as well. And so we'll see Some of those things happen probably irrespective of the sort of the technically defined Atlantic Loop Transmission Project as Nova Scotia Power continues its journey to decarbonize and progressively retire its coal plants.
Excellent. All right. Second question. Just taking a look at the TECO rate case once again, it's been out there for a little over a month now. What is the feedback from stakeholders and any opportunity for settlement here?
Archie, you want to take that one?
Sure. Good morning, Rob.
I would say to this point, feedback from stakeholders has been balanced. It's been fair. I think there's a recognition that the investments that we've made or that we are making Are things that customers are interested in. It's what society is interested in. We're decarbonizing.
We're driving down the use of coal, Stabilizing our fuel cost over time and so modernizing our grid, improving resiliency reliability. So I think that there's an acknowledgment that these are investments that are in the social interest and that over the long They're good for our customers. And so we've been pleased that for the most part that's the feedback has been Fair and balanced. From the perspective of a settlement, a settlement is always a possibility. But at this point, We are preparing ourselves for a fully litigated rate case.
We have every expectation That we have preparing ourselves for that eventuality. If a settlement Presents itself, we will be willing to engage, but we wouldn't think that that would present itself until much later in the process, Probably after we've completed discovery. So we're open to it, but preparing to go right to the end of a fully litigated rate case.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Maurice Choi of RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Thank you. And my first question speaks about Slide 12, which is a great disclosure from an operating cash So, Praetis, any color on possible puts and takes if the various components there Change, particularly if I look at the Tampa Electric rate case of C3.75 dollars that's US280 million dollars And you mentioned that that's in line with what you've asked. In the potential event that we don't get everything that we ask, where would you see the potential tailwinds to be to make up for your targeted operating cash flow.
Hi, Maurice. It's Greg. Yes, good question. I mean, if you look at Slide 12 and the buildup of the various items, I mean a couple of them have either already been It's a question of timing, in particular, E and L and our gas LDCs, rate cases, which we've had settlements late last year. Obviously, the biggest piece is the Tampa Electric rate case.
I will say that the combination of those four items identified on that page Probably increase our credit metrics, our CFO to debt or FFO to debt by somewhere around 300 to 400 basis points. And so to the That one or 2 of these numbers turns out to be less than what we have illustrated here, We'll still be comfortably where we need to be from a credit rating agency perspective. So that's kind of the way to think about it. I think if you think of A rate case of Tampa Electric, I think the average in the U. S.
Is generally around a 60% to 70% Success rate in terms of getting what you asked for, I think Florida probably traditionally has been at either the higher end of that or slightly above that. So I think it's fair that
Great. And just a follow-up to that. Obviously, the first component only comes in, in 2022, whereas the rest of it, It's a lot of it come in this year. Any update on your discussion for this year's review, specifically 2021 rather than 2022?
With the rating agencies, Maurice?
That is correct.
Yes. So as always, We have ongoing conversations on a regular basis with all 3 of the rating agencies, S and P, Moody's and Fitch. I don't know what the timing is of Moody's or Fitch to issue a report this year, But S and P just issued their annual report a few weeks ago and reconfirmed our rating and outlook, so there's no change in either. And we're just
You mentioned earlier that $1,200,000,000 haven't changed much this quarter. I wonder if you could just elaborate a little bit more about recent developments both in the U. S. And Canada with regards to climate commitments. Have you seen an opportunity to increase that $1,200,000,000 What kind of timing we should be looking at in terms of Ben, and with that, any intent to take action sooner around related to fund this potential increase?
Well, I think Maurice, it's Scott. I think directionally, of course, What's happening, the focus, the intense focus that's on many stakeholders of pushing decarbonization And whether that's federally driven climate energy policy in Canada or the It's, of course, directionally positive for a company like Emera. And obviously, we Our whole strategy is anchored, centered on, been delivering on decarbonization efforts And related investments for many years, almost 2 decades. So in that sense, for sure, it's directionally positive. And I think as we look for opportunities to accelerate decarbonization or to respond to the Requirement to decarbonize faster if legislative impetus gets put into And obviously, we're really well positioned to do that.
And yes, I think that bodes well for What our CapEx profile and growth can continue to be, maybe within the forecast period, but certainly beyond it. And so I think that's just why we are feeling confident about the positioning of the business and the Strength of the and the appropriateness and the durability of our strategy Right now, because it provides that opportunity as we continue to execute for customers to also be aligned with the Accelerated pace that's being driven by many policymakers. Of course, one of the really important things in this, of course, is That as acceleration quickens, that does drive cost. And we're going to continue to work To ensure we're representing customers' interests as well as we can to ensure that it's also affordable and finding ways in order to Accelerate the decarbonization, but still keep it affordable. And obviously, the Atlantic Loop project or more broadly, As we described it, Eastern Clean Energy initiative for us in Atlantic Canada It's really borne out of that idea of how do we do this faster, but still keep our eyes on and manage the implication of cost for customers.
So it keeps us encouraged about what the future holds. Nothing that will likely add much in a way of CapEx growth In 2020, not one, but certainly as we get out into the later part of the forecast period and beyond, I These will be driving forces that should continue to drive Emeritus growth for years to come.
And just to follow-up on that, you mentioned that legislation needs to be put in place. Do you view Did the ball to be on the government side of the court in terms of putting next steps out? Or is it one for the industry such as
Well, I mean, for sure, we have to drive the Solutions, but we also have to work within the parameters that get established for us within the range of Legislation and Regulation. And of course, our most regulatory constructs require us Not the cleanest, but the lowest cost and compliance electron. And so to the extent that we can, as we are the big bed modernization Project in Florida, we're undertaking that because that cleaner energy, that transition from coal To gas at Big Bend Station is more affordable for customers. It is less expensive and therefore that's a great self Driven initiatives, the same with much of our solar investments right now. Those are all happening because They are cost effective for customers.
But at the same time, if there was, for example, Carbon pricing in Canada that the Liberal government has, of course, proposed, Higher carbon pricing means that the that affordability lens looks different In 2,030 to 2,040, dollars 170 of carbon per tonne of carbon than it would if there was no price And so that would require Nova Scotia Power to work with the provincial government to arrive at a solution that Within the parameters of that carbon tax or that changed legislation continues to produce the most affordable solution for customers while being compliant with
Great. Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from Mark Jarvi of CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe coming back to the Tampa Electric rate case. Is there anything that can be gleaned from the Duke Florida settlement in terms of their depreciation studies or anything relative to what you proposed, where you can see whether or not Staff might be on board with your proposal, given that that's a substantial part of the step up in rates.
I'd like to start this way and if Archie or Greg want to chime in, would let them. But look, I mean, Every rate case submission is different. So I think everyone would need to be careful. We need to be careful about interpreting the result One rate case into another, of course, we pay attention to that. We pay attention to the rate case filing that the Florida Power and Electric Have done.
But our case needs to stand on its own and the merits of the capital that's been invested and the depreciation study, the independent depreciation study that Has been done that helps to guide those discussions and the team at Tampa Electric I know has Put a huge amount of work in to ensure that as it's responding to the needs to invest that capital and address The appropriate requirements for depreciation and overall cost of the business that is doing so prudently and With a lens on impact to affordability for customers and so confident in that sense that The work that's been done and the rate case that has been filed with the support for that All stands on its own, very well thought through, very well considered with benefit of expert Opinions and the team will work through that process with stakeholders and the FPC as the year progresses.
Okay. And then for Greg, obviously, some proposals on tax changes in the U. S, but also in Canada. Does that put you in a bit of a holding pattern in terms of Position of corporate debt or any sort of updated thoughts in terms of how you might respond if there are some changes in taxation Paul,
please? Yes. It's probably a little bit early to tell. I mean, I think it certainly looks like If I start in the U. S, Mark, that the Biden administration is looking to increase corporate tax rates that Really doesn't have any impact on our financing other than our U.
S. Denominated debt. The after tax cost would be lower than it It is today, but it doesn't really have any impact on us from that side of it. It looks like the discussions we're having around The thresholds for alternative income tax would be sufficiently above our taxable income in the U. S, so we shouldn't get caught by that at all.
If I turn to Canada, really it looks like a couple of themes that are emerging. One is the elimination of any kind of cross border tax structures. We really don't have anything in place that is worth mentioning. So that's something that we're very focused on at this point. And then I guess the last thing is they're still working through the mechanics on is there going to be any kind of interest deductibility limitation, Which we have to be careful of what I think in Canada because obviously Canadian Utilities run at a much thinner capital structure.
And I certainly wouldn't want to see us in a position where we couldn't raise incremental debt at the Canadian regulated utilities because of that kind of limitation. So I think there's some work to be done on that. It probably pushes us long term that means which We really are effectively today. What it means is holding company debt is probably going to be raised in the United States as opposed to Canada is what I'd be
That's great color. Thanks for that, Greg. And my last thing, just going back to you, Scott, in terms of the balance of The legislation and regulation in terms of big initiatives like Atlantic Loop, update us in terms of like at this point, are you socializing what You're thinking with the regulators in Nova Scotia, like how do you get to then come back to the table with your neighboring provinces, other people to discuss Atlantic Loop With enough confidence that you're putting us in the right boundaries of regulation and improving cost recovery.
Yes. Peter, are you comfortable to answer that?
Hi, Ann Scott. I guess what I'd say to that and good morning everyone is that it is a complex project involving Multiple stakeholders, multiple provinces, utilities. And so we are having, I'd say, still early day discussions with all. And there's opportunity, I think, to bring more of those stakeholders into the discussions in the coming months. As both Scott and Greg said earlier, we hope we'd have something more to say toward the back half of this year.
I don't know if you have anything you want to add to that.
Yes. No, I think that's exactly right, Peter. And Mark, I think the only other thing I'd say is, look, it is It's multiple stakeholders involved in anything like this around energy policy and in our case In Nova Scotia, as we work to ensure that as the changing landscape Of energy policy federally to the extent it impacts the province, the province is deeply engaged in that. And of course Nova Scotia Power Continues to work with, always works with its regulator and its stakeholders and that process has started here now. Of course, It's not perfect clarity yet on any of these things, but keeping those stakeholders aware and involved and engaged Through the piece, we're pleased that the province's awareness And support of something like the Atlantic Loop requirements of federal engagement in helping to Solve the challenge in Nova Scotia, but all of this is complex and multiple stakeholders involved.
And And Peter and the team at Nova Scotia Power are doing a great job in ensuring that engagement and alignment as best as possible.
Okay, got it. Thanks for taking my questions.
Thanks, Mark.
Your next question comes from Ryan Greenwald, Bank of America. Your line is open.
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning, Doug. In terms
of further Potential developmental opportunities. Can you guys talk a bit about how you're thinking about any discrete opportunities coming out of potential Interval in the U. S?
Yes. Brian, it's Greg. Sorry, go ahead, Greg.
No, if you're going to start, Greg, go ahead.
Again, I think there's it's probably a similar answer, Ryan. It feels a little premature. I mean, there's a couple of things happening. Obviously, there's the infrastructure bill, And we're looking at what that might mean for us, I'd say, probably not in the next couple of years, but as we look broader than that. And then of course, there is more of a sensitivity in some of the markets too as well in terms of system resiliency in particular because of the events in Texas.
So I think there's a couple of things that are happening, all very consistent with the themes that have driven our capital investments at this point. And We're looking to see what the opportunities may mean for us and for our business and for our customers, But we haven't concluded on any of those things yet.
Got it. And then just in terms of hedging, any thought process at this point given the pressure of late on FX in terms of Looking out to later years, and just to confirm, you guys have no hedges beyond 2022 at this point?
That's correct.
Any thought process around implementing some now or is still kind of too early at this point?
Sorry, I missed the first part of your question. Just in
terms of your thought process at this point in terms of implementing hedges for the later years given the press Jerry, Maurice on the FX?
Yes. We'll continually look at it. But At this point in time, we haven't put any incremental hedges on at these levels.
Great. I'll leave it there. Thanks for the time.
You're welcome.
Your next question comes from David Peters of Wolfe Research. Your line is
open. Yes. Hey, good morning, guys.
Good morning.
Yes, I know you don't have a formal guidance range, but just curious back To the FX, if you could just comment on potential impacts for 2021 and any offsets you have against those headwinds. I appreciate the hedges that you have in place, But I think originally you had assumed a rate of $1.28 versus the $1.21 that we're currently sitting at?
Yes, that's correct, David. So in the current year, each $0.01 change in that In 2021, we'd be about $0.01 in EPS and for 2022, we'd be about $0.02 in EPS.
Can you talk to any offsets elsewhere in the business that you're seeing to help kind of offset those pressures?
Yes, it's a good question. I don't know certainly, it wouldn't necessarily be linked to it, but we're also seeing as you've seen in our Q1 results, and I'm sure you've seen in many of the companies that you're We're seeing things like obviously lower short term interest rates than maybe most of us would have thought a year ago, Which is certainly helpful. All of the capital that we're investing for better or worse is Going in, in Tampa Electric and Peoples Gas in New Mexico Gas at a lower FX rate. So our capital requirements At a consolidated basis are slightly less. So there's a few things that probably help mitigate a little bit, But it is a volatility that will continue over the balance of the year.
There's no question about that.
Great. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Andrew Kuske of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good morning, Scott. You mentioned a little bit about effectively the cross border divide on decarbonization with pretty clear policies in Canada. And then obviously, you have a really robust solar resource in Florida. I guess just on a longer term basis, how do you think about unfolding with that cross border divide.
And then when you start thinking about the interplay of demand side management, distributed generation, That's effectively customers having batteries in their houses. How does all that play out on a longer term basis for you? I know it's a big picture question, but how do you think about that now?
Yes. Well, I think, Andrew, it comes down to simple things like ultimately, we've always got to be focused So I'm making sure that we're providing cost effective solutions to customers. And The team at Tampa Electric has done a fantastic job of if you think about the shift in the generation Profile Tampa Electric from just even when we acquired TECO back in 20 16 now with 6 55 Megawatts of solar that's in service and another 600 Megawatts We have planned that it will take it to order of magnitude 15% of their generation profile and then The coal to gas conversion effectively, the retirement of 3 of 2 coal units and the conversion of another coal unit to High Efficiency Natural Gas, again, just a massive change in not only the generation profile, but the carbon Profile for Tampa Electric and in that case, all doing it on a basis that is more affordable to customers And if they hadn't made those changes and so really continuing to think about the business that way to as I say this culture of innovation, which is a big word and maybe it doesn't sound like it really should apply to any utility perhaps, But there's an element of that in driving the transition that has happened in Florida that has already happened and still needs to happen In Nova Scotia and frankly in the Caribbean in our gas utilities too.
And certainly, as we think about distributed Generation and that trend, Tap Electric there too It's playing its part with looking at community solar. We're with the work that Rob Bennett is doing with Mira Technologies, Thinking about the role that we as a utility can play to enable and accelerate The use of distributed energy, the use of batteries being used now in our Caribbean businesses, In plans in Florida, in service now in Nova Scotia and the opportunity For more, which will be an important component of ensuring resiliency as part of the transition to more intermittent renewables And whether those batteries are at customers' homes or parked in solar Or wind generating facilities or at substations, it's going to be all of the above. And so the utilities have, I think, an important role to play In all of that, and I think that broader trend of policy, whether it's driven at the provincial level Or the state level or the federal level or just by economics is going to be a continuing driver of our capital programs and growth At Emera for many years to come still.
Appreciate those thoughts. I guess my second question is Still relates to a cross border divide and it's probably more for Greg. And it's just in your CapEx slides in the deck. Do you
see it being useful in
the future to maybe just have the U. S. Dollar CapEx for the U. S. Business and then the Canadian CapEx?
Like, obviously, you're a Canadian dollar reporting issuer And you have a translation rate on the deck. Do you feel that, that will mask the growth of the underlying growth in the U. S. Business that's happening on a U. S.
Dollar basis?
It's a good suggestion, Andrew. I mean, we try not to overreact a year ago when the dollar was at 1.42 And we've worked a lot of that in trying to do the same consistency today, but it is a good suggestion. We'll take it away and take a look at it. Thank you.
Okay. Thank
you.
The next question comes from Patrick Kenny of National Bank Financial. Your line is open.
Yes, good morning. Just wanted to clarify guys on the Tampa filing, what the process looks like if the U. S. Corporate tax rate does go up to 28%. Is there an automatic adjustment to the revenue requirement?
Or do you have to go back in for approval? And could there be a potential lag in realizing that cash flow uplift relative to the Jan 1 effective date?
Greg?
Yes, Patrick. We've asked for a mechanism to recover that, but I think It's fair to say that you should expect some kind of regulatory leg on that. Even when tax rates went down, I think it's still a full year before that savings flowed back through to customers. So even with the mechanism improved, I don't think we'd see any impact of that until probably 2023.
Got it. And then just on the trading and marketing front here, You may have touched on it already, but can you quantify just how much of the performance in the quarter was simply extreme weather driven versus perhaps structural in nature going forward.
Judy, over to you.
Okay. Well, I guess that's an interesting question. I mean, the business Generally makes pay in big weather events. So I don't I mean, I can say let me put it this way. I would say we made somewhere between $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 of margin In what I'll call markets adjacent to where the most turmoil was.
So I think of that as kind of Benefiting directly from the Yuri event. So, after tax, that's probably $10,000,000 to $15,000,000 I guess. The New England weather didn't really blow out at any time, but it was steadily cold through the quarter, and that's what we like to see. So prices in New England were kind of almost double what they were this time in the Q1 last year, but still kind of An average of $5 to $6 and peaking out at $14 or $15 So I would kind of call that a normal cold winter. So if I had to try to answer your question in some meaningful way, I would focus on what margin we earned kind of in adjacent markets To where Yuri was really impactful and like I said that's somewhere between $12,000,000 $15,000,000 of margin.
Okay. That's very helpful. Thanks, Judy. And then just over on the Caribbean frontier, any leading indicators you can speak To with respect to travel and economic activity, perhaps coming back later this fall to more normalized levels?
Yes. I think, Patrick, largely, I mean, really our Caribbean interests are centered in Grand Bahama and Barbados. Of course, we have interest In St. Lucia and Dominica too, but really most of the substance of our Caribbean businesses is in those two islands. And their behavior is a little different.
So a leading indicator, Ugram Mohamed, roughly, is really very linked to the U. S. Economy. So So as the U. S.
Economy strengthens, I would expect to see the economy in Grand Bahama strengthen. Of course, tourism We'll also help. There has been some shipping related, cruise ship related activity, would I think the biggest one for Grand Bahama would be really just a linkage to the U. S. Economy.
Barbados obviously is different and there is principally tourism driven and so there tourism with The U. K, Canada and U. S. Being primary components of that, of course, So much, much broader, but those would be the ones to look at. So it's really tourism in Barbados and the U.
S. Economy for Grand Bahama.
Okay. That's great. Thanks, everybody.
There are no further questions at this time. I will now return the call to Ms. Bauer for closing remarks.
Thank you, Chris, and thank you all For joining us and for your interest in Emera. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. And if you have any questions in the meantime, please feel free to reach out to myself and the IR team.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.