Good morning and welcome to H&R Real Estate Investment Trust 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. Before beginning the call, H&R would like to remind listeners that certain statements, which may include predictions, conclusions, forecasts, or projections in the remarks that follow, may contain forward-looking information which reflect the current expectations of management regarding future events and performance, and speak only as of today's date. Forward-looking information requires management to make assumptions or rely on certain material factors and is subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and actual results could differ materially from the statements in the forward-looking information. In discussing H&R's financial and operating performance and in responding to your questions, we may reference certain financial measures which do not have a meaning recognized or standardized under IFRS or Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other reporting issuers.
Non-GAAP measures should not be considered as alternatives to net income or comparable metrics determined in accordance with IFRS as indicators of H&R's performance, liquidity, cash flows, and profitability. H&R's management uses these measures to aid in assessing the REIT's underlying performance and provides these additional measures so that investors can do the same. Additional information about the material factors, assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements in the forward-looking information and the material factors or assumptions that may have been applied in making such statements, together with details on H&R's use of non-GAAP financial measures, are described in more detail in H&R's public filings, which can be found on H&R's website and www.sedarplus.com. I would now like to introduce Mr. Tom Hofstedter, Chief Executive Officer of H&R REIT. Please go ahead, Mr. Hofstedter.
Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. With me are Larry Froom and Emily Watson. I hand it over to Larry to give his recap of the quarter.
Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. In my comments to follow, references to growth and increases in operating results are in reference to the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the three months ended September 30, 2023. Headline FFO per unit for Q3 2024 was $0.2940, compared to $0.420 in Q3 2023. As a reminder, FFO in Q3 2023 included a $30.6 million gain on disposal of a purchase option held via a mortgage receivable. Excluding this gain, FFO would have been $87.1 million or $0.310 per share in Q3 2023. Overall, given the headwinds we faced at the end of last year with multifamily supply concerns, a weak office market, inflation, and rising interest rates, we are pleased with our results. We continue to execute on a strategic repositioning plan.
In 2023, we sold CAD 432.9 million of income-producing properties, and this year, to September 30, 2024, we have sold CAD 344.8 million of income-producing properties. We expect to end the year with approximately CAD 440 million of real estate sales this year. I would now like to spend a few minutes providing commentary on each of our segments, starting with office. We are hearing of more back-to-the-office policies from different companies, and it seems clear that more and more employees are heading back to the office, which is positive for the sector as a whole. Our office portfolio of 16 properties, which includes four properties with residential rezoning opportunities, now only comprises 19% of H&R's total portfolio. 87.6% of our office revenue comes from investment-grade tenants, a testament to the quality and location of our office properties.
Our office occupancy at September 30 was 96.8%, with an average remaining lease term of 6.1. Lease expiries between September 30, 2024, and December 31, 2025, only approximate 400,000 sq ft, so the portfolio will continue to provide solid cash flow. Our downtown Toronto office properties with residential rezoning opportunities are valued at CAD 140 per sq ft, which is less than half the value they were at the peak of the market, and the rest of the portfolio has a weighted average cap rate of 8.86%. Our office properties are valued at approximately CAD 1.9 billion, and there are only two mortgages totaling CAD 140 million, the net of which equates to CAD 6.24 per unit. Excluding our office portfolio in its entirety, our NAV per unit would be CAD 13.42, which is significantly higher than our current share price.
Our sales of office properties to date of CAD 2.3 billion since the announcement of the strategic plan demonstrate that there is value to our office portfolio. On the residential segment, while there has been a lot of new supply added in our residential markets, the positive immigration trends have continued, and our tenants are also staying longer. Since the announcement of H&R's strategic plan, H&R's average US residential rents increased from $21.16 per sq ft as of June 30, 2021, to $26.97 per sq ft at September 30, 2024, in US dollars. Our residential portfolio at September 30, 2024, comprised 47% of H&R's overall portfolio and is continuing to grow. Lantower West Love in Dallas reached substantial completion and was transferred from a property under development to an investment property. West Love has become the 25th residential income-producing property in our portfolio.
Lantower Midtown, also in Dallas, is not far behind and will become our 26th investment property very soon. In addition, we have another two residential developments currently under construction and expected to be completed in 2026. H&R's ownership interest in these two new developments is 29.1%. Our retail portfolio at September 30, 2024, comprises 15% of H&R's overall real estate assets. The tenants in our retail portfolio are mostly grocers, and the portfolio has been very stable with growth in rents and net operating income occurring from the lease-up at River Landing in Miami. Our largest retail tenant is Giant Eagle, who has close to 200 locations in our portfolio. Giant Eagle recently announced that they are selling their GetGo convenience stores and leases to Couche-Tard. This will further diversify our tenant mix, with Couche-Tard comprising about 1.7% of our revenue.
Giant Eagle will then comprise about 3.9% of our revenue. Our industrial portfolio of 66 properties at September 30, 2024, comprises 19% of H&R's total real estate assets and continues to perform well. Since the announcement of H&R's strategic plan, H&R's average Canadian industrial rents increased from $7.17 per sq ft as at June 30, 2021, to $9.42 per sq ft as at September 30, 2024. In addition, industrial properties located in the GTA made up 35% of H&R's industrial portfolio as at June 30, 2021, compared to 50% of H&R's industrial portfolio as at September 30, 2024. We continue to grow our industrial portfolio and added two newly constructed properties at the beginning of this year. We currently have one industrial property and a 50% interest in two industrial properties under construction scheduled to be completed in 2025. Our balance sheet remains strong.
Debt to total assets at the REIT's proportionate share at September 30, 2024, was 44.9%, and debt to EBITDA was a healthy 9.1 times. Liquidity at September 30, 2024, was in excess of CAD 900 million, with an unencumbered property pool of approximately CAD 4.1 billion. Our unencumbered asset to unsecured debt coverage ratio was 2.2 times at September 30, 2024. In summary, we are well positioned to continue executing the strategic plan to sell office and retail properties as and when the market allows, and management remains committed to doing so. On the ESG front, we are pleased to report that our project at 6900 Maritz Drive in the GTA was shortlisted for the World Demolition Award in the Recycling and Environmental category. The previous 104,000 sq ft steel structure office property had a total weight of 8,758 tons.
The waste diversion program recycled 8,113 tons of steel and concrete, or 93% of the total material weight. In addition, our Lantower West Love development in Dallas reached substantial completion and received the National Green Building Silver certification. And with that, I would like to turn the call over to Emily. Emily.
Thanks, Larry, and good morning, everyone. I'm happy to be on this call to discuss our third quarter same-store results from our multifamily platform and discuss some operational achievements and market insights. Our year-to-date results continue to align with our expectations as the new supply deliveries officially peaked at a 50-year high in the third quarter. Additionally, ending Q3, the trailing 12-month absorption was 85% above the long-term average, further demonstrating the strengthening drivers for our industry. We remain focused on the fundamentals of our business and creating NOI expansion through our repositioning opportunities, development pipeline, and other innovative value-add strategies that add to our bottom line. Given the declining levels of new supply ahead and growing demand in our markets, combined with the strengths of our operating platform, we are well positioned for substantial growth and value creation in the coming years.
Same-asset revenue growth in US dollars increased 50 basis points for the third quarter, and same-asset net operating income for our portfolio in US dollars decreased by 1.4% for the three months ending on September 30, 2024, when compared to the respective 2023 period, primarily due to higher property operating costs, including taxes and insurance, and a decrease in average rental rents from the Sunbelt properties, which is partially offset by rental growth at Jackson Park in Long Island City, New York, and River Landing Residential in Miami, Florida. Same-asset occupancy ended the quarter at 94.1, a 50 basis points decrease over the second quarter, and an 80 basis points decrease from Q3 of 2023. Same-asset occupancy in the Sunbelt for Q3 was 93.4, with 51% retention, and Jackson Park was 99.2 occupied and 64% retention.
The Sunbelt continues to show strong demand metrics moving into fourth quarter, with resident retention at 58% for October and 60% for November. Sunbelt blended tradeouts in Q3 were negative 2.5% in the third quarter, ranging from approximately negative 8% in Austin to slightly positive in North Carolina and Orlando, which coincides with levels of supply expansion. Based on its recent third-party appraisal and a handful of Sunbelt sales comps, we have maintained our fair market value Sunbelt cap rates at 4.98% and believe the rate is appropriate and supported. Cap rates are expected to remain low, relatively speaking, for the institutional quality assets in the Sunbelt, with capital flows interested and focused on long-term heavy Sunbelt multifamily allocation. On the development front, Lantower West Love in Dallas, Texas, received final TCO at the end of September and is currently 40% occupied and 43% leased.
We are excited to celebrate Lant ower West Love, the achievement of the National Green Building Standard Silver certification. We will share final development budget economics for West Love on the fourth quarter call after we close out the project. Also in Dallas, Texas, Lant ower Midtown has received its final TCO on October 31 and is currently 15% occupied and 25% leased. Both properties are leasing well, with an average monthly velocity of 25 leases per month, which is above industry reports for our market, another testament to the superior product and unparalleled amenities our development team has delivered. We will also share final development budget economics for the Midtown project on next quarter's call. Remaining properties are progressing well and remain on budget, with completion expected in mid-2026.
Lantower currently has an additional nine development projects in the Sunbelt pipeline, totaling over 2,900 suites at H&R's ownership interest, with multiple sites ready and prepared for construction. We are progressing through the different phases of design, drawing, and permitting on the remainder of our Sunbelt development pipeline and currently have an additional two projects shovel ready. In summary, the Lantower residential platform continues to achieve encouraging results and strong performance relative to our multifamily counterparts. I would like to recognize our Florida and Central Services team members for their preparation for back-to-back hurricanes Helene and Milton. By following the hurricane protocol and communication to our residents, we sustained only minor damage in a few areas.
During Milton, over the course of three days, our central team members managed over 1,100 incoming and outgoing emails, calls, and text messages with our residents, with an impressive 98% response rate under four minutes around the clock. The unity of our Lant ower team is one of the many reasons we were certified as a great place to work in the third quarter and best places to work in Florida by the Best Companies Group. And with that, I'll pass it back to Tom.
Thanks, Emily. Operator, you can open up the call for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Your first question comes from Sam Damiani at TD Cowen. Please go ahead.
Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Maybe, Tom, just for you, I'd like to get your sense on the outlook for dispositions today versus maybe last quarter, considering everything that's unfolded over the last three months. Just wondering what the outlook and pipeline looks for activity into 2025.
So, hey, Sam. Good morning. It's basically cloudy. Last quarter, there was more optimism on interest rate reduction, and therefore there was more fueling the buy side. There's also fueling the debt side. The debt side is dormant, and without debt, you're not going to have acquisitions. So nothing's on the market. There's very little on the market. We have nothing on the market. There's very little on the market that anybody has. It's really off-market deals, and those are opportunistically driven. So you can't forecast those. In general terms, I'll tell you that the brokers are dry right now, and it's part and parcel of the uncertainty over interest rates. I have no visibility into when that is going to change. I don't think it's the office market deteriorating further. I think that is what it is, and the residential market is also pretty static.
The industrial market's a little bit down, but there's more interest in the industrial than any other sector right now, just because the institutional funds have to put their money somewhere, and because of all the uncertainty, there's nowhere else for them to put it. I don't really have a vision of what we'll be selling over the next 12 months. It's really, as I said, opportunistically driven. If we get better visibility after Trump comes in with interest rates and where the Canadian dollar lies, that'll significantly alter and give us our ability to forecast our dispositions going forward.
Okay. And I guess the Cap Rate on the U.S. office portfolio was up close to 30 basis points, if I'm not mistaken. Was there a reason for that, something that required that?
As the time marches on, you keep on eating into your rents. Logically speaking, unless there's a change of sentiment in the office market, the NAVs of office will go down.
Okay, and maybe just one last one for Emily. Just on looking at the organic NOI, sort of same property NOI trends at Lant ower, what's your expectation for things to turn more meaningfully positive?
Good morning, Sam. Great question. So I definitely think that we'll see some overhang in 2025. And every year we meet with our CoStar and RealPage and some market economists, and really mid-2025, I think, for most of our markets. I think Austin, where they have bigger expansion, that might go to the end of 2025 before we go into 2026, which we anticipate to be a really robust year. So I think we still have 75,000 units that will deliver in 2025 on the heels of the 100-plus that delivered in 2024.
Sorry, that was 75,000 units in the Sunbelt?
Yes, just in the Sunbelt in our market.
To come over the next year. Okay.
Yep.
Thank you, and I'll turn it back.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, should you have any questions, please press star one. The next question comes from Mario Saric at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Maybe just sticking to Lantower, Emily, in terms of your kind of expectations for new and renewal spreads in 2025, and share any thoughts in terms of where that may trend?
Good morning, Mario. Yeah, I definitely think that we will continue in Q4 kind of where we saw it in Q3. In Q1, we usually get a little bit of an uptick. People kind of hunker down for Q4 and start to make any moves, and I think we'll continue on the same kind of seasonality that we see every year with Q2, our strength, and about the time that our peak is kind of behind us, and we're picking up some speed in Q3 and Q4, probably even better, so I think we'll end the year next year probably flat on lease tradeouts in the Sunbelt. Again, diversification is our friend next year because New York will continue to post the 3% lift, and Miami is set up for a really great year as well.
So with the Sunbelt, I'd say flat overall with kind of a slow start Q1 and Q2, a little bit of a hockey stick in Q3 and Q4.
Got it. And given the relatively low rent-to-income ratios in your portfolio, what are your thoughts in terms of renewal spreads?
Renewal spreads, I expect to be in the three-four range next year, Mario. We don't see a lot of, even before when interest rates were low, we didn't see a lot of home move-outs to single-family homes and so forth. So I think our renter base with over 100,000 in the salary range, I think they're not really looking to move to single-family homes regardless of what happens there. So I think the three-to-four, maybe five in the second part of the year will be a healthy range for renewals in 2025.
Got it. Okay. And just from an accounting standpoint, the transition of Dallas West Love into IPP this quarter, what was the overall FFO impact on the results this quarter?
I'm going to kick that to Larry.
Morning, Mario. The West, it was pretty flat. It's still 40% occupied. It's not producing. It's probably flat in NOI. It's not producing much NOI this quarter.
Okay, so flat NOI, but perhaps slightly negative on FFO.
Yeah. I mean, we also had a bit of decrease in capitalized interest to the project that is no longer being capitalized, and that will continue to decrease going forward into next quarter. But offsetting that will be NOI growing. This quarter, we didn't have any positive NOI growth from West Love.
Got it. Okay. Maybe switching gears to the disposition environment, kind of talk about the broader overall environment. But can you talk specifically about Hess Tower in Houston and kind of the progress that you're making there on the lease-up of the space expected to be given back and the implications of that progress to the sellability of the asset?
We have exactly one-third of the building coming up into mid-2026. Out of that, this week, we shall have signed approximately 110,000 sq ft of that on a new 10-year deal expected in 2026. We're currently negotiating on another approximately 46,000 sq ft of space in that building. I expect by 2026 that the space should be all gone.
Okay. And then in terms of Echo and Hess Tower, for example, these are very kind of unique assets or situations. Would it be fair to say that your broader commentary on the broader market in terms of it being kind of cloudy and slow would pertain to those assets as well, or is there something specific with those assets that you think can buck the trend?
That's a very good question because it specifically does not refer to those properties. There's a lot of interest today in Echo simply because it's grocer and it's defensive. It's very, very conservative. My guess is by the end of next year, if not sooner, we'll have something done on Echo, and Hess Tower again is opportunistic. I think there will be something done in Hess Tower as it is an A building in an A location. And it's just waiting right now for. There's no large transactions in the office market, period, but really nothing to speak of in Houston. So I'm more optimistic on Hess and Echo just for the reasons I just mentioned, and they don't fall into the general category of slow market.
Got it and would Hess Tower essentially the leasing, do you think it would have to be completed in order for the property itself?
No, I don't think so at all.
Got it.
Again, it's waiting for. There's no financeability of office in North America today, and I think because of the long nature duration of that lease under the Hess, I think you could get financing. I think part of the cloud around Hess is, who is Hess? Is it Chevron? Is it Exxon? Or is it Hess? And if it is any one of the three, what's their plans for Hess Tower, which we don't know yet? Because of that, we can't speak to that creates a cloud around trying to sell the asset or you having interest in the asset because they just don't know what the future occupancy is going to look like. From a cash flow perspective, it's solid, but again, that puts a little bit of a cloud.
By one year's time, we'll have the answer to those questions, and I'm sure there will be interest at that point in time, if not sooner.
Got it. Okay. My last question is just on the VTB mortgage receivables. There was a bit of a write-down this quarter. I may have missed it, but can you remind us what the remaining VTB mortgage receivable balance is, the average term to maturity, and kind of conviction level in the collection?
Hi, Mary. So you're asking about the remaining mortgage receivable balance we have on the property we just sold, Pearl of Burnaby. That's our biggest mortgage receivable remaining. I think it's about CAD 55 million. We have 160 Elgin was on the balance sheet at September 30th for CAD 20 million, which we got repaid on October 1. We had First Tower in Calgary about another CAD 20 million. And we had two or three other mortgage receivables on land in the US for the remaining balance of our mortgage receivable. The average term for those, I'll have to get back to you on the average term. I don't have that in front of me. It's around four-to-five years.
Yeah. Okay. And presumably, you feel pretty comfortable with the disclosed balance today?
Yes.
In terms of collection?
Yeah.
Okay. Thanks, guys.
Thank you. The next question comes from Matt Kornack at National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. Just quickly on the office de-leasing program, can you give a sense as to how much NOI is maybe generated by the development-oriented assets and how you see that NOI coming off? I know 53 and 55 Yonge. Sounds like you're going to demolish the building and leave it as land for a period of time, but just want to get a sense as to the earnings impact of that before you ultimately monetize it.
53 and 55 is scheduled for demolition, I think, in around four weeks or so. We've done a deal with the tenant to buy out. It's around 145,000 sq ft, including 53 Yonge, call it 150,000 sq ft, and was leased around $12 a sq ft. That was past tense. Again, we did a buyout, so it's slated for demolition. Demolition will take around one year. Hi, Matt. Just to add on to what Tom's saying for your first part of the question, we don't really break out the office NOI between the redevelopment properties and not, but we do break out the fair value. From there, you can maybe get a guess from it, but the fair value of those redevelopment properties is around $450 million, around that, for the four properties we have downtown Toronto.
Overall, we haven't broken down the NOI, but for 55 Yonge, it went vacant in August. So for Q3, we would have had already two months of occupancy and one month of vacancy. So there is still some to come off for Q4, but we already had part of that vacant in Q3.
Okay. No, that's very helpful. And then, Tom, maybe in terms of the process there, it sounds like you're still going back to get rid of office replacement on a number of these properties. What's the thought around kind of monetizing it through a sale or waiting until you get the approvals, etc.?
In all cases, we're going to wait for approvals. But approvals, I would say, are going to be done by no later than the end of next year for all of these properties. 53, 55, they'll be slated. It will be demolished and be done within a year from now. At that point in time, it'll wait for the market to recover. It is a phenomenal residential site, but the residential market is horrible right now, and it's just going to have to wait for that. There's no timing; it's not of the essence. We have patience for that. 145 Wellington will stay the course. We just are renegotiating with one of the tenants to renew. The rental income will be fine over there. It's probably, I would say, five to 10 years, probably closer to 10 years away before we demolish that.
We're just going through the rezoning process to put that asset to bed as far as its ultimate value. Again, it's across Roy Thomson Hall, Ritz-Carlton. It's a fantastic location. It'll be a beautiful building. The market's there. Not there right now, but the office market for that asset is still solid. That won't be a problem. Front Street is the more interesting project. It's three towers. Two will be residential. One will probably be storage or office or something. I don't know. It's also a year away from rezoning. And probably we'll have to wait and see what the residential market looks like. But ultimately, that highest and best use will be residential.
Okay. Perfect. And then just quickly, not as familiar with the New York City market, but can you give us a sense as to the land and condo market as it relates to maybe Jersey City and your recent Brooklyn purchase? Is it better there tone-wise than what we're seeing in Toronto at the moment or similar?
Pretty well safe to say that anything's better than Toronto. We're on that for a starting point. Gowanus is very, very strong. There's a lot of institutional and large big-money managers looking for sites that can build 1,000 units in prime locations. Gowanus, our plan is to sell it probably in 2025. We're just waiting for some not zoning issues, but more environmental issues to finish off over there. That'll be in high demand, and we'll sell for a significant dollar amount. There won't be any issue with that at all. Jersey is a very strong residential market. Again, not like Toronto. Jersey, there is some development, but Jersey is going to have to wait a little bit for interest rates to come down. It's a large project.
We haven't made a decision to pull the trigger on the first phase of Jersey, which will be finished as far as planning goes within around four or five months. At that point in time, we'll decide how we want to launch it. I don't think we'll be building it. The market's strong enough. It's waiting for interest rates to come down, and that's the only problem in the United States market, unlike Canada, which has a host of other affordable issues that the United States does not have. So Cove and Gowanus, I think, long-term are good assets. Gowanus will be sold in 2025 and generate a lot of cash. Cove will wait for interest rates to come down. And Toronto is wait and see.
Okay. Perfect. Appreciate the color. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from Jimmy Shan at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Just a couple of quick follow-ups on the asset sale. There's also a lot of optimism in the New York office leasing market. So what is your confidence in your ability to transact Two Gotham? And then the Couche-Tard GetGo transaction, does that have any implication on the sale of Echo?
Good questions in both regards. The New York City market, Gotham market is much stronger than Toronto. Again, I hate to say this because I'm a Canadian and born and bred here, but Toronto is really, really lagging North America, as is Canada lagging the United States in a big, big way. The New York office market is getting stronger. More importantly than that, there'll be a host of probably 30% of the office product that will be reconverted under the YES program in New York to residential, and that'll happen sooner rather than later. That'll make the buildings that are not viable as office, which are quite frankly a host of buildings because of the age of the buildings, convertible to residential. I expect the United States market to pick up dramatically. Two Gotham, it's not going to affect its saleability.
It's a tenant that's using it in the building completely. It's a perfect location for them. I think we'll have to wait for visibility as to our plan would be to wait and have patience as the market recovers. We expect the tenant to stay there. It's just a question of what the rental rate will be. So we're in no hurry to dispose of Two Gotham. We'll just wait and see on that market. So Toronto way behind, New York way ahead, Two Gotham not losing sleep over, and Toronto has to wait for the residential market to improve. Echo is an interesting story. The Couche-Tard is a game changer.
Not only do we get covenants on the GetGos, we also, Giant Eagle disposes of an asset class within their portfolio that was not a laggard in earnings, but was hurting their ability to sell Giant Eagle as a company because the supermarket chains don't want to take on the environmental responsibility, nor do they want to get into the gas business, oil and gas business, so it now cleans up Giant Eagle. It pays off all the debt of Giant Eagle. Giant Eagle becomes debt-free. Our covenant then becomes a very high investment-grade tenant, although it has no debt. That's a shadow rating, and Couche-Tard now goes to will trade like a Wawa in the market, probably five-ish cap as opposed to probably six and a half, which it was under the GetGo banner, so it improves all of the metrics.
It improves the ability for Giant Eagle to be sold, and therefore the attractiveness of Echo is a lot better. Our value of our asset is a lot better because the covenant of our tenants is better. And as I said previously, I do expect something to occur by the end of no later than the end of next year.
Okay. Great. Thank you.
Thank you. That concludes today's question and answer session. I will turn the call back over for closing comments.
Thanks, everybody. Have a good quarter.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference for today. We thank you for participating, and we ask that you please disconnect your lines.