Good morning, and welcome to H&R Real Estate Investment Trust 2022 third quarter earnings conference call. Before beginning the call, H&R would like to remind listeners that certain statements, which may include predictions, conclusions, forecasts, or projections in the remarks that follow may contain forward-looking information which reflect their current expectations of management regarding future events and performance, and speak only as of today's date. Forward-looking information requires management to make assumptions or rely on certain material factors and is subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from the statements in the forward-looking information.
In discussing H&R's financial and operating performance, and in responding to your questions, we may reference certain financial measures which do not have meaning recognized or standardized under IFRS or Canadian generally accepted accounting principles and are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other reporting issuers. Non-GAAP measures should not be considered as alternatives to net income or comparable metrics determined in accordance with IFRS as indicators of H&R's performance, liquidity, cash flows, and profitability. H&R's management uses these measures to aid in assessing the REIT's underlying performance and provides these additional measures so the investor can do the same.
Additional information about the material factors, assumptions, risks, and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements in the forward-looking information and the material factors or assumptions that may have been applied in making such statements, together with details on H&R's use of non-GAAP financial measures, are described in more detail in H&R's public filings, which can be found on H&R's website and at www.sedar.com. I would now like to introduce Mr. Tom Hofstedter, Chief Executive Officer of H&R REIT. Please go ahead, Mr. Hofstedter.
Good morning, everyone, and I'd like to thank you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter financial and operating results. With me on the call are Philippe Lapointe, President, and Larry Froom, our Chief Financial Officer. Year to date, our teams have been executing against our repositioning plan, a plan that we laid out to the investment community just over a year ago today. Since October 27, 2021, we have made great progress and are moving towards our desired outcome of becoming a streamlined, growth-oriented REIT. Already our company looks very different than it did over a year ago, as is evident by our asset composition, balance sheet, and same-property net operating income growth.
Over the last year and a half, we have moved over CAD 5 billion of lower growth office and retail properties and reallocated that capital into higher growth Sun Belt and gateway city residential, alongside buying back our own units at a significant discount to NAV. Our year-to-date results and performance highlights the quality of our properties and embedded growth that we are servicing as a result of this transformation. We are continuing our progress with dispositions announced to date, furthering our portfolio simplification strategy. Capital allocation remains our top priority as we drive our plan forward and where our focus remains.
Year to date, we have recycled capital out of CAD 455 million of office, retail, and other non-core asset sales, reallocating that capital to the repurchase and cancellation of almost CAD 300 million worth of our units or to 22.9 million units at a 42% discount to our NAV. Our NCIB has been very accretive to unitholders, creating CAD 0.72 in NAV per unit. In August, we completed the sale of four office properties and three and retail properties totaling CAD 167.8 million. After quarter end, we sold an additional three properties totaling CAD 49 million, comprised of two automotive tenanted retail properties in Arizona at a weighted average cap rate of 5.8% and a vacant single-tenant office property in Burlington, Ontario, for CAD 26 million.
These sales are in line with our IFRS values, providing further support to our net asset value and aligning to our positioning plan. Lastly is the 9.1% distribution increase that we announced yesterday, supported by our very strong year-to-date performance and our positive outlook for the future. This increases the monthly distribution to CAD $0.05 per unit commencing in January 2023. With today's strong quarterly results, we are on our way to creating a simplified, growth-oriented company that will first surface significant value to our unitholders. With that, I will turn it over to Philippe.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I'm happy to be on this call to discuss our Q3 updates and to go over our quarterly highlights. Before I do, I'd like to pause for a moment and highlight some of the recent enhancements that have been made at the H&R board level and other ESG accomplishments. In accordance with H&R's policies governing board tenure, four new independent trustees were elected in 2021 upon the retirement of two members. Their collective expertise, combined with the existing trustees, has created a well-diversified, independent, and experienced board, which should enhance investor confidence and governance sentiment. Additionally, women currently represent 38% of our board, marking progress on the board's diversity commitment and achieving the 30% Club Canada's aim for better gender balance. The majority independent board and H&R management team are fully committed to continuing to enhance corporate governance and to increase unitholder value.
Another material ESG step we made this year was participating in a GRESB real estate assessment, which is an investor-driven global ESG benchmark and reporting framework that enables us to understand our performance against peers, and to provide investors with the information they require to make thoughtful investment decisions. In addition to our earnings announcement last night, we also released our annual sustainability report that outlines some of our recent progress. We are also proud to report that 50% of our executives are women. For the third consecutive year, H&R placed on The Globe and Mail's Women Lead Here benchmark of executive gender diversity. We understand that health and safety, employment engagement, diversity, equity, and inclusion, and engaging with our tenants and communities are critical for our long-term success as an industry-leading real estate organization.
To that end, we look forward to updating our stakeholders of that progress. On to the Lantower portfolio. The U.S. Sunbelt and Gateway markets continue to experience strong supply and demand fundamentals for multifamily rentals. An additional tailwind that we expect to accelerate those fundamentals is the increase in mortgage rates. With a rate of over 7% for the most typical mortgage, the rent versus buy decision will likely push additional households into the renter space. For context, our same-store tenant move-outs due to buying a home decreased from approximately 20% in the second quarter to 12% in the third quarter, a trend that we anticipate will continue. Additionally, this year's same-store Q3 traffic and completed applications are actually higher than the third quarter of last year.
Lantower Sunbelt portfolio has continued to register double-digit renewals and new lease trade outs as a blended rate for new leases and renewals equated over 15% in the third quarter. Therefore, while the rental rate growth acceleration may have peaked in the coming quarters, our top line growth is still substantially outpacing expense growth and also supporting existing fair market valuations despite potential future increases in cap rates. Moving on to Jackson Park. Positive trends in the amount of traffic, renewal rates, and number of leases executed have continued through the third quarter. At the end of the third quarter, Jackson Park's occupancy was 99.5%, reflecting yet another quarter of tremendous operating results from the asset.
On the development front, Lantower West Love in Dallas, Texas, is on schedule and on budget, with the second level of concrete pours on our podium and parking garage occurring this week. Also in Dallas, Texas, Lantower Midtown is on schedule and on budget, with site work completed and the tower crane being erected by next week. We expect limited, if any, variance in the overall budget based on how we are tracking. West Love's hard costs are 99% bought out by our general contractor, while Midtown is 90% bought out with our GMP contracts. While we have elected to postpone the construction starts of some of our development pipeline, we have continued progressing through the different phases of design, drawing, and permitting, as our intent is to be fully prepared to capitalize our development pipeline based on our conviction at the appropriate time.
On the JV development front in Hercules, California, phase two, called The Grand at Bayfront, is 64% leased. In Shoreline Gateway, Long Beach's tallest residential tower at 35 stories has seen stronger rental demand, is now 80% leased with rents that are matching pro forma. Lastly, before I hand it over to Larry, I want to acknowledge that Lantower Residential won a national marketing and advertising award presented by the Multifamily Executive Magazine, which is widely recognized as one of the most influential multifamily publications in the U.S. Congratulations are in order to the Lantower operations team for a notable achievement led by COO Emily Watson and President of Property Management, Colin Grant, in notching yet another mark on our path to maintaining a best-in-class operating platform. With that, I will pass along the conversation to Larry.
Thank you, Philippe, and good morning, everyone. As Tom mentioned, we are excited to report our results this quarter, which are reflecting our simplified portfolio strategy and alignment to higher growth. That growth is clear from our year-to-date results of same-property net operating income on a cash basis, which grew 16.6% compared with the first nine months of 2021. In addition to our capital allocation initiatives, our portfolio produced strong third quarter results, with total same-property net operating income on a cash basis increasing by 11.5% compared with the same quarter of last year. Our residential division led the way with a 36.5% increase, primarily driven by an increase in occupancy at Jackson Park in New York. Excluding Jackson Park, Lantower's growth in U.S. dollars was 11.2% for the quarter.
As Philippe has already discussed, Lantower Residential continues to see significant demand for our Sunbelt residential properties, leading to substantial rent increases on new leases and renewals. Same-property NOI on a cash basis from office properties increased 5.2% compared to Q3 2021, primarily due to a CAD 2.3 million lease termination fee. Excluding the lease termination fee, same property NOI growth was 0.6%. Our office properties are located in strong urban centers with a weighted average lease term of 7.7 years and leased to strong creditworthy tenants. Only 5.3% of our total office square footage is expiring between now and the end of 2023. 14,000 sq ft expires during the remainder of 2022, and 349,000 sq ft expires in 2023.
Retail same property net operating income on a cash basis increased by 4.2% compared to Q3 2021, primarily driven by the strengthening of the US dollar. Industrial same property NOI on a cash basis increased by 6.9% compared to Q3 2021, driven by increased occupancy and contractual rental escalations. For Q3 2022, FFO was CAD 0.302 per unit and AFFO was CAD 0.255 per unit. Excluding the lease termination fees of $2.3 million, FFO would have been CAD 0.294 per unit, and AFFO would have been CAD 0.247 per unit. Based on our distributions of CAD 0.137 per unit for the quarter, our AFFO payout ratio was a very healthy 53.7%.
Based on our announced distribution increase to CAD 0.60 per annum set to begin in 2023, our FFO payout ratio for the quarter would have been 50% if the distribution increase had already been in effect, and the AFFO payout ratio would have been 59%. I'd like to mention that during the quarter, we received $85.7 million as a repayment of a mortgage receivable. As a result, interest income in Q3 decreased by CAD 650 thousand from Q2 2022, and we are expecting a further decrease of CAD 1.1 million in Q4. Debt to total assets at quarter end was 43.6%, with total liquidity of CAD 712 million.
Our unencumbered asset pool continued to grow and is currently CAD 5 billion, up from CAD 4.6 billion at Q2. Not withstanding our fair value adjustments, which resulted in our real estate assets decreasing by CAD 307 million, our net asset value per unit grew from CAD 22.14 at June 30, 2022 to CAD 22.58 at September 30, 2022, primarily due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the purchase and cancellation of 22.9 million units under our normal course issuer bid year to date. In summary, we are very pleased with our Q3 results. Our high quality portfolio of properties are well positioned to produce strong operating results going forward. With that, I'd like to turn the call back to Philippe.
Thank you, Larry. In closing, I wanna thank our investors for their time, patience, and feedback. We have spent a lot of time with the investment community communicating our strategy and plan and listening to investor feedback. Despite the persistent volatility in the markets, our strategy is resonating and investors are positive on our plan, our execution to date, and the direction in which we are heading. Recognizing that there is still significant important work ahead of us, we are well on our way to creating a simplified, growth-oriented company that will surface significant value for our shareholders. We'd now be pleased to answer any questions from call participants. Operator, please open the line for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the number one on your touchtone phone. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the two. If you're using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Sam Damiani from TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good morning, everyone. Congratulations on a good quarter in the distribution bump. Maybe just to clarify the background to the distribution increase, and particularly the special actually, was that driven by the transaction activity in 2022 specifically, or is this something from a tax perspective the REIT will be facing pressure on in future years?
Good morning, Sam. The special distribution, yes, was a result of the capital dispositions that we've done during the year and the result of having to distribute it to shareholders. The increase for next year was more a result of our operating results to date and a lower payout ratio, which we're targeting of around 50% on a FFO basis.
Okay, good. That's good. Maybe, another one for you, Larry. Just on the debt refinancing activity today and what you see for the remainder of 2022 and into next year, what sort of coupons are you seeing in the marketplace between commercial property and apartments, as we go forward over the next, several quarters?
For our commercial properties, we're seeing probably spreads of between 190-220 basis points over a five-year mortgage renewal. Those would give you guidelines of what we currently can finance at. On the apartments, we haven't had one come up for a while. I don't really know on apartments in the U.S. Philippe, do you have any?
Sure. If we did, depending on LTV, it would be somewhere in the ballpark of 150-200 basis points above, whichever index was ultimately used.
Does the REIT have any capacity to source debt on your Lantower assets over the next year or so? Or is most of the refinancing gonna be happening at the corporate or commercial property level?
I think it has its capacity. Whether it has its willingness, I think we're gonna be judicious in seeking the best cost of capital. We certainly have the capacity to do so in the U.S.
Okay. Last one for me. I was wondering if you could just comment on transaction activity in the marketplace supporting the change in valuations that you put through in the third quarter, generally and specifically on the industrial and residential side?
Well, I can speak on the multifamily. The problem that we're having, which is everyone's having, including our U.S. peers, is the lack of visibility in transactions. Obviously, the Treasury has increased and as of late, decreased substantially, but still is elevated. I think it's anyone's guess. Safe to say that cap rates have certainly expanded. We thought it would be prudent and conservative to expand the cap rate that we use for a fair market value in the U.S. But frankly, every one of us is in price discovery mode as it stands right now. Unless you have to sell or you have to buy, you're not transacting, which makes visibility tremendously difficult.
Is that generally or specific to the apartment side of the business?
No, that comment was for the U.S. multifamily, but I would suggest it's probably fair to say that it's a comment that is fair for just about any asset class right now.
Okay. Thank you. I'll turn it back.
The next question comes from Matt Kornack from National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. Just a few for Larry to start with regards to the Caledon development properties. The leases don't commence until later this year. Can you tell us, is there any income in the current results, and presumably the capitalized interest has come off?
Good morning, Matt. Yes, for the properties that we moved into income-producing properties, they really came in at the end of the quarter, so there was no income, no NOI associated with them in the quarter, and the capitalization of interest had ceased in the quarter. I'm looking at the team. I'm pretty sure their interest capitalization had stopped for Q3.
Okay. Nope, that's fair enough. On the Montreal transaction, with regards to that lease termination in four years, is that a property that you would see potentially developing yourself, or is that something that you'll ultimately go through the process, look at the city and their master plan and then sell it, when that termination comes to fruition or maybe sometime in advance?
You know, maybe I'm speaking out of turn. I'll turn it over to Tom after. I think we'll go through the process, which will take quite a number of years first. We'll get the rezoning and go through that process. You know, we got till 2026 before Bell leaves that property. We've got quite a way off to decide.
Yeah. I think, Matt, the important part in that transaction is it provides us additional flexibility and optionality at some point in the future. At the time when we obtain the zoning, we'll make a risk assessment depending on where we stand or where the capital market stand, where the potential for redevelopment is and make a decision then.
More specifically, that was not really the accurate answer. The accurate answer is it's in zoning. It'll be completed by the end of 2024. It's going to be rezoned for 850 townhouses and 1.1 million sq ft of high-rise, six to eight stories. The question is, are we gonna be building it? That we probably will not, but we don't have to decide that until it's zoned. The combination of the lease termination and the value that we're expecting on the rezoning using a very conservative value, CAD 25 a sq ft, will achieve a higher value than the asset is worth prior to doing that transaction, and that's why that transaction was done.
Okay. Fair enough. Presumably, you can sell it before, and the CAD 70 million termination income in 2026 would accrue to the buyer at that point, like, at the time of the cancellation.
No, no, I wouldn't say that's, I wouldn't say presumably. We'll see.
Okay. With regards to the removal of Bayside in Tampa, and then maybe a broader comment with regards to your appetite to continue to develop U.S. multifamily in the current environment, could you give us a sense as to why that specific asset was removed? And then, yeah, just broader sense on the prospects for continuing the development of U.S. Sunbelt multifamily assets.
Yeah, there's a kind of two-part answer. The first answer is, frankly, we don't have tremendous visibility as to what 2023 has in store for us. Out of an abundance of precaution, we found it best to pause Bayside and get a better read on where the market is, more frankly, where the financing markets are, where cap rates are, and more importantly, where the development delta would be between the development yield and a stabilized product would be. We're still very bullish on the properties. Matter of fact, we're very bullish on our entire pipeline.
One must exercise some caution in the environment in which we find ourselves. The other frankly reason why we paused it is we found and we firmly believe that there is no more compelling investment than buying our own shares. At this point in time moving forward, we've been, if not the most active, the second most, but I think we're the most active NCIB participant in Canada in the REIT space. For us, it really comes down to ultimately an allocation of capital.
Fair enough.
Sorry, Matt. Yeah, go ahead, sorry.
No, that's perfect. I guess, just as a follow-up, I would presume you guys are not the only ones potentially putting new development on pause or reassessing the market. Can you give us a sense as to how that may play out with regards to the fundamentals for your existing assets a few years out if development doesn't go ahead in the broader market?
It's a great question. This marks my 30th call at H&R REIT, and I would tell you that I've never been this bullish on our space. Namely because I think supply is about to fall off a cliff. Not only us, but the publicly traded REITs, the private syndicators or rather the private developers, the U.S. merchant developers, everyone has stopped any developments or generally speaking, any developments that have not been ongoing. The 2023 deliveries and 2024 deliveries is somewhat baked because it takes 2.5 years to kind of get going. I would submit that on the second half of 2024 and into 2025, this persists and remains. We're gonna see the U.S. market, specifically the U.S. multifamily market, which is already undersupplied, being that much more dramatically undersupplied.
Which leads us to believe that we are in for another healthy runaway of increase in rental growth.
That makes sense. A last one for me, I guess it's maybe for you as well as Larry. On Jackson Park, I didn't parse the exact numbers, but I'm just looking at the equity accounted figures. It looks like there's a sequential increase in rent, but costs are up. Is there still some of that kind of higher transaction expense in this quarter with regards to NOI from Jackson Park? Should we expect kind of Q4 to get back to prior kind of peak levels or maybe a bit higher from an NOI standpoint?
Yeah. Because of the large turnover in Q3, we had a large turnover at the property and large renewals, so there was higher commissions and incentives for leasing. Yeah, we are expecting or I'm expecting Q4 to be higher than Q3 was in terms of NOI going forward.
Certainly from a year-over-year basis, 2023 should prove to be a way healthier or significantly healthier NOI year than 2022. Just for additional context, the property is no longer offering any marketing incentives to tenants. No rental inducements or concessions, which were a significant expense in 2022 as we were re-tenanting the property.
Q4 onwards, it's kind of back to a normal asset from a sequential standpoint. Year over year, it'll still be. Well, year over year, I think it'll actually be back to normal as well.
That's right.
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks, guys.
Your next question comes from Jenny Ma from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. I think earlier in the year, you talked about development spend of about CAD 200 million for 2023 or so. Wondering if you could provide an update on that outlook, and maybe venture an estimate for 2024 as well.
Good morning, Jenny. That 250 million that we had indicated in the past has decreased as we put on hold Bayside. I believe we have in our disclosure. We're expecting the balance to be, and I believe the balance for 2023 is about $117 million US.
Sorry, Jenny, you said 2024, but you meant 23, right?
Well, an update on 2023 and 2024 would be great too.
I can give you on 2023, we're expecting CAD 117 million spend on our U.S. developments for 2000 and-
Yeah.
We're not sure yet what 2024 is gonna hold, but that is what we're expecting for 2023.
Yeah. I think it'd be too premature to give a figure for 2024 at this point.
Based on the commentary, though, directionally, perhaps, a little bit less than 23 might be approved, a look at this point.
Now with Jenny, you have the industrial buildings, which we have two under construction. We have another property in Mississauga, which we may or may not commence in 2023. What you're really looking at in your numbers is therefore the commitments that we've made that can take us to 2023. What you're speculating on and we're speculating on is what are the new commitments that we can't answer at this point in time. We can only answer that contractually, we have the two industrials, we have the two residentials, and we probably have more than likely the Mississauga industrials going forward. Beyond that, we can't give you any numbers, any commitments, because it's too far into the future. We'll see where the world is at that point in time, where our stock is trading, what the best use of our funds are.
Okay. Okay, that's fair. On the industrial leasing that you're doing, particularly on the Meadowvale, can you comment on what kind of annual rent steps you're achieving in the current market conditions?
Right now, rental rates are $17.50-$19 a sq ft. Trying to achieve 4%. Have achieved 4% on one, and the other was somewhere between 3% and 4% on an annual basis.
These are ten-year deals?
These are all ten-year deals.
Ten-year deals. Okay, great. That's great to hear. And then turning to dispositions. I'm just wondering if you could comment on what you're seeing in the marketplace in terms of transaction volume. Clearly there's been some slowing down, but maybe you can give us more color on what asset classes, what markets you're seeing activity in, and then you know what you're expecting for the next, let's say, 12-24 months on the disposition volume front.
On a specific to H&R, as far as disposition goes, we're still attempting to stick to our plan of selling, trading out of office and retail. It really depends on the market strength, and at this point in time, the market is very weak. All the office deals that are happening are structured deals with VTB's. Prices are all over the map, and a lot of the deals are not happening. The deals that are on the market right now, there's been an awful lot drop. Going into 2023, we have no visibility as to the strength of the market's gonna get better or not in the office class. Industrial has weakened as well. There are far less industrial trades happening.
We don't plan to have any dispositions in the industrial front. Retail, again, has weakened, but not to the same extent as office. Retail, for the most part, has weakened. The REITs, pension funds, insurance companies are not acquiring retail and office. The industrials are, I think, more specific, whether it's value add or not. The core industrials are also struggling to achieve the pricing they achieved around a year ago. It's kind of sloppy out there, and a lot's gonna be predicated on where interest rates lie. Because right now if interest rates stay at the current level, let's call it 6% in Canada, even higher in United States, it's underwater as far as where cap rates are.
Not a great lot of visibility is what the real pricing is going to look like next year. Again, predicated on if we're going to enter a recession and where interest rates are gonna lie.
Yeah, Jenny, if I may, if I can answer the question differently, I would just say we absolutely remain committed to the plan. What will change due to the volatility and where we find ourselves in the capital markets is the sequencing and the dispositions may be a little bit choppier than we anticipated. However, there's absolutely no wavering away from the plan. It's just the sequencing may change as a result of that.
Okay. You kind of half answered my next question. You're committed to the plan. Is it fair to say that you would have more wiggle room on timing and push out some of the dispositions later on in your five-year plan versus compromising on pricing? Is that a fair comment?
Yeah. I think when we put the plan and we said five years, it could take less, certainly won't take more. What we wanna impress upon everyone who's on this call is we're a large REIT, we're in unprecedented times, and we wanna be mindful of unitholder value. Nothing is for sale. We're not pressed for sale. We're committed to simplifying this REIT, but not at any cost. I believe our unitholders want us to be careful, mindful of their investment, but also to be opportunistic when the opportunity presents itself. I think I speak for Tom, Larry, and I when I say right now, I don't think the opportunity is presenting itself, but we're very attentive to anything and everything, and we hope to have some news on upcoming dispositions at some point in the future.
Okay, great. Thank you very much. I'll turn it back.
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one. Your next question comes from Jimmy Shan from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning. This question is for Larry. Just on the debt refinancing. You have a debenture coming due in 2023, I believe. Just kinda how are you thinking about that piece of paper?
Good morning, Jimmy. Yes, you're right. We have a debenture of CAD 250 million coming due in 2023. We actually have talks with our bankers to give us term loans, so the unsecured term loans to replace that debenture. Interest rates will be around all in around 5.5%. You know, that's still subject to fluctuations going forward between now and when we close.
Okay. Got it. The interest income comment you made of CAD 1.1 million, that's for the quarter decline, not an annualized decline, right? From Q3.
Sorry, I didn't hear that. Which decline?
You said in Q4, the interest income will decline by CAD 1.1 million.
Yes. I did. That is correct. It'll decline further by CAD 1.1 million.
For the quarter.
In the quarter.
For the quarter. Okay. Got it.
For the quarter. Yeah.
Just lastly on Lantower. Maybe two questions there. Just what does the loss to lease look like currently? In light of your comment about the cost of debt, as well as, you know, your bullishness on the development pipeline still, kind of how are you thinking about the development hurdle rate today for you to push through on more, you know, more developments here?
I think, Hi, Jimmy. I'll answer the second part of your question first. I think the hurdle rate on development is. It kind of ties into my earlier comment, which is if we as an industry have a lack of visibility of stabilized cap rates, it becomes very difficult to answer the question on hurdle rates for development yields. My bullishness stems on the fact that we have bought what I believe to be A-plus sites at below market pricing, which allows us to sit on this pipeline for a few years. Kudos to our team in Dallas for those acquisitions.
In terms of what yield we would have to achieve for us to be developing those assets currently, I don't have the visibility, nor do I think anyone has currently, which is probably why there's been an almost complete arresting of all development activity that hasn't begun as an industry. You're asking for the cap rate or the earn-in, our earn-in is similar to our U.S. peers in the ballpark of 5%-7%. I anticipate as it relates to us, we're in that ballpark as well.
Okay, thanks. Sorry, just one more. On the industrial, Canadian industrial portfolio, I think the in-place rent sits about CAD 8. I think I heard you doing lease deals in the high teens. Would it be fair to say that the CAD 8 on the market rent equivalent would be in the mid to high teens?
It's as a generalization it was, but it's obviously specific to each individual asset.
Sure.
As a generalization.
On a blended basis, where would you put the market rent for the portfolio?
Oh, that's. You're asking a question that goes across Canada that goes interprovincial with different markets. Let's be more specific. Most of our assets are located in Toronto, in the GTA Toronto. There you are talking rents as high as CAD 19.50, but let's say for the older properties, CAD 15-CAD 19. That's the range. You are seeing healthy steady 3%-4% annual growth. In, you know, Vancouver, BC, you're gonna see even higher numbers, but that's. But we don't have a lot of product there. In Calgary, you're probably gonna see, I would say where we see 19 over here, they probably see 15. Where we see 15, they probably see 11. So probably CAD 4-CAD 5 difference in the Alberta market.
In Eastern Canada, you have a whole bunch of older product, so it's really all over the map. Hard to give you an answer for on a national basis, but really specific to where your properties are, since ours are so heavily weighted to Ontario, we're gonna see a higher level of rental rates than you will see for the average across Canada.
Suffice it to say, Jimmy, that now you're seeing why we're so confident in our NAV and excited about our NCIB activity and why we think that what we're trading now is a significant discount to where we think the property values are.
Right. Okay. Thank you.
Your next question comes from Sam Damiani from TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just one additional follow-up. On the industrial development program, you know, the REIT's been quite successful quickly putting up buildings, leasing them at high rents, and earning attractive development yields and clipping sizable gains. Going forward, how do you look at the pipeline on balance sheet for land that you could continue to develop in that regard? Are you happy with it, or do you see the need to add the opportunity to add more land to the balance sheet? Is it a good time to do that today?
That's a very good question because the real answer is we're adjusting now in the industrial world for the recession, for the higher interest rates. Land values are coming off, have come off, and will continue to come off in 2023. Rental rates, if you look across the national average, including United States, the expectation is that rental rates will start easing off there as well, especially with the big users such as Amazon, not only ceasing to absorb more space but actually giving back more space into the market. It's not a good time to buy land at this point in time. I think your, let's call it $3.5 million an acre is probably gonna trend down a bit. I think the pension funds are loaded up with land.
H&R's balance sheet would allow us to buy the land, but the buying land at today's market value probably is not the right thing to do. 2023, same as residential, I think we basically build out what we have, and we take a pause to see, to reanalyze where we'll be going forward with further commitments. I wouldn't buy land today for the 2024 launch.
Okay, that's helpful. Sorry, how much, like, how much more GLA could you commence construction on your existing lands?
It's just bits and pieces on the. Except for the Mayfield piece, which we haven't made a commitment to, whether we're gonna be selling it to the province or not, which is 100 acres. We have just bits and pieces here and there. Nothing of any huge consequence. Around 500,000 sq ft is the Mississauga property that we're expecting to launch later on in 2023.
Okay, thank you.
Presenters, there are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.
Thank you everyone for joining us today. We look forward to continuing our update or to update you rather, on our progress over the upcoming quarters. Thank you and goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for joining, and I ask that you please disconnect your lines. Thank you.