All right. Well, it's a pleasure to introduce our next speaker, Ken Anderson, Chief Financial Officer from Intac Financial. Ken, welcome.
Yes. Thanks, Phil. Thanks for the invite. Thanks for everyone for being here.
Excellent. Listen, I thought about maybe we'll start the conversation, if you can maybe give us your view on what you see as some of the key issues at hand over the next twelve, twenty four months and really how your team is positioned for that.
Yes. Well, maybe I'd just start by maybe doing a little recap in terms of financial objectives, the two core ones. Firstly, growing net operating income per share at a 10% compound rate. We've delivered that over the last decade. And the second key financial objective, which is delivering an ROE outperformance of at least 500 basis points.
And there, it's been north of six fifty on average over the last decade. So very good delivery historically. And when we look at the 2025, we see profitability, dollars 9.25 of net operating income per share in the first half of the year. That's a significant lift year over year. Profitability is really good.
Combined ratio, 89% in the first half of the year. And that's driven an ROE at 16.5% for the twelve months to June 2025, and that includes some drag from elevated catastrophe losses in Q3 last year. So the platform is very well positioned. And that ROE in that north of mid teens level is true in all markets that we're operating in, in Canada, in The U. S, in The UK.
We're driving mid teens operating ROEs now, and we're outperforming by at least 500 basis points in all markets. And the balance sheet is very strong at the same time. Capital margin, 3,100,000,000.0 and debt to capital down now at EUR 18,400,000,000.0 the end of the second quarter. So very well positioned from a balance sheet point of view. And I guess then the thing that we're looking at and focused on is at the top line, given that level of profitability, top line growth is certainly an opportunity.
The Personal Lines side of the house is in excellent shape, outperforming on growth and profitability there, double digit growth in Personal Lines. In the Commercial Lines side, that's where I would say the market has certainly we've seen a little bit of tapering of top line growth at an industry level, particularly in the large account space and driven by activity in the large accounts. But contrary to that, from an Intacct point of view, I would say the trajectory of growth that we're seeing as we move into the second half of the year is moving in the other direction. Why is that? Well, we've been remediating in The UK, also to a lesser extent in The U.
S. But we very much see that the initiatives that we have available and that we're deploying in terms of leveraging technology, leveraging the global specialty lines opportunity really will allow us to see our growth start to move in a positive trajectory despite the fact that there has been some tempering at the industry level over the last couple of quarters.
That's great color. Listen, over the last five years, I think Intacct generated average operating ROE just over 16%. So I think as the landscape evolves and continues to evolve, I mean, what factors do you see that suggest that will be sustainable?
Yes. So if you look at that track record that you've described, and when we think about ROE outperformance, there's three main drivers of that outperformance. And we think that we have all the tools to sustain in each of those three areas in the decade ahead. The first one is in pricing and risk selection. There, we've been pushing on quant AI for upwards on eight, nine years now, leveraging the science throughout the business.
We have north of 500 people now fully focused on AI and data in the organization. We have 600 plus models actually in production in the field deployed and delivering benefits. And we're very much at the forefront, continuing to push the envelope and deploy the technology, the AI pricing sophistication throughout the platform in the years ahead. And we very much see that as a sustainable advantage that we can maintain. The second area, I guess, is in claims that has sustained the outperformance.
Onethree of the outperformance, we believe, comes from our approach to claims. Firstly and foremostly, it's around internalization of claims. We handle 90 north of 98% of our appraisals we do with our own people. We have 83% of our legal handling is done in house and north of 70% of our personal auto repair work is done through preferred providers that we have exclusive relationships with. So sustaining that ownership of the claims process in house leads to better outcomes for customers in terms of customer service, but it also leads to a lower cost of handling claims and ultimately a better indemnity outcome as well when you have your own people who are invested in solving problems for customers.
So that's a really important driver. And we're also pushing that now in the property side with the On-site restoration business that we acquired back in 2019. There, we see a big opportunity to continue to go deeper in the supply chain on the property side and something that we're continuing to push. We're also leveraging now more AI in claims to spot trends earlier and to really focus in and find the pockets of inflation earlier and be able to react to them, be it from a pricing but also from a product point of view where appropriate. And then maybe the last or the third leg of that ROE outperformance is very much around capital management and investment management.
The investment management team based in Montreal have managing almost the entirety of our 40 plus billion investment portfolio there. They've generated north of 120 basis points of ROE outperformance over the last decade, and we see certainly an ability to sustain that. And then the other component there is, of course, the accretive deployment of excess capital that we've done over the last decade. We've deployed EUR 10,000,000,000 on M and A, generated north of 20% IRR on that. And certainly, as we look over the next five, six years through 02/1930, we see excess capital generation in that 10 plus billion zone.
And certainly, we'll be looking to deploy it and to continue to drive those type of IRRs from that deployment to sustain the ROE advantage moving forward. I'd maybe point out two last things that maybe don't fit within that in terms of looking to the future and structural ROE and outperformance. I guess the first is around the combination of distribution income and investment income today is now generating in the zone of nine plus points of ROE before we actually start to do underwriting. So that's a great start. If you like, we talk about it as the Monday morning ROE before we get into the business of underwriting, we're in that 9% zone.
And then the second is the evolution of the business mix over time. If you were to go back eight, ten years, 70% of our business was personal lines and about 30% largely commercial with a bit of Canadian specialty. We look at the profile today, you now have north of 50% is commercial specialty lines and the remainder personal lines. And that commercial and particularly that specialty lines tends to be a business where there's more flexibility, let's say, from an ROE point of view. And we certainly think that, that offers a better profile and mix of business to deliver the type of ROE and ROE outperformance that we're seeking.
Excellent. Listen, I think investors are grappling with a bit of a complex landscape, right? You've got strong industry profitability, and that's starting to contrast, I think, with maybe emerging concerns in pricing stability and maybe market cycle transitions. So with that, maybe can you walk us through the pricing environment and dynamics across Personal Lines?
Yes. So in Personal Lines, I guess, maybe if we take Personal Auto, firstly, from an industry point of view, you're looking at 2024 with combined ratios north of 100%. When we look at the data from the first six months of 2025, it hasn't improved in any way. So that's kind of the backdrop to the environment that Intact is operating. We're striving to run the business sub-ninety five.
That's our objective in the first half of the year. That's where we've been. And we're very comfortable growing in that context. And we are growing. We're growing at a double digit level.
And within that, there is unit growth. So we're quite pleased overall with the performance of personal auto. And we have good distribution optionality in personal auto, meaning we have a very coast to coast offer from a broker channel point of view. But equally, in the direct to consumer business, our Bel Air Direct brand is providing the direct offer to the consumer. And that's really fueling the growth, I would say, in the current environment.
The direct business is growing in the mid teens and upwards of that in the current environment. So very well positioned. And when we look at our relative performance, we're outperforming in terms of growth and combined ratio in Personal, Auto and very pleased with that. In Personal Property, hard market conditions there as well for maybe slightly different reasons. It's driven on the back of, as we know, 2023 and 2024, where we've had quite heavy catastrophe losses and climate impacts in those years.
And that's driven industry profitability to be challenged. The first half of this year has been better from a personal property point of view, thankfully because there's been a little less catastrophe activity. And again, there, our track record is quite strong in personal property. On average, over the last ten years, we've ran at 90%. We talk about an objective of running sub-ninety 5% even with severe weather, and we're doing that.
So we're getting close to double digit rate increases in the current environment and adding some units as we do that. So again, very well positioned and also outperforming from a growth point of view and from a combined ratio point of view in personal property. So all in Canadian personal lines right now, we're in quite a good place.
Excellent. Listen, I think there's some interesting dynamics and maybe diversions playing out across commercial lines. So maybe you can kind of share your perspective on that segment and what do you think it means for Intact?
Yes. So maybe a few broader comments on commercial, maybe overall. I would say we would describe it as a constructive market overall. Important to note that the majority of our business overall, I would say 70% is in the small to mid size segment. It's higher than that in Canada.
It's a little less than that in The U. S. And The UK. But overall, the small SME mid market is 70% or thereabouts of our business. The pressure that we're seeing from a pricing perspective at the industry is very much in those large accounts, which have an outsized impact, but less impact on us given the relative size.
And that's where we talked about the industry growth moderating more into that mid single digit range. But again, as I said in the opening remarks, our trajectory of growth is moving in the other direction. In Canada, performance is really strong. In Commercial Lines, we're getting mid single digit rates. We are seeing that mix shift, the average premium declining a bit because of that pressure in large accounts.
But that's where our discipline is at the forefront, where we're pricing every risk based on a minimum mid teens ROE. When pressure comes on, on those large accounts, we're not necessarily going to follow the market down and renew at suboptimal ROEs. If we have margin in the pricing, we will be prepared to compete. But if we don't, we will walk away. But beyond the pricing, there's a lot of non pricing initiatives in the pipeline that are starting to bear fruit.
I'd point in particular to the technology that we're deploying to brokers in Canada is very much leading to, in the first half of this year, an uplift in the number of quotes that we're making relative to the submissions we're receiving. And further, the number of quotes that we're then binding is also up year over year. And that's a function of some of the significant improvements in the technology and interfacing that we've been doing with the brokers. In The U. S, again, from our point of view, well, profitability is really strong.
We're coming off eight sequential quarters of sub-ninety combined ratios. So we're in a good place there. Rate, I would say, is in the low to mid single digit, solid and covering inflation certainly. And there, our growth has been tempered by some remediation on financial lines that we've had. That will dissipate in the second half of this year.
And then the initiatives that we've been taking in terms of leveraging our distribution, our ability to cross sell should start to kick in and really start to improve the growth trajectory of The U. S. Business. In The UK, again, in the specialty lines, it's the same type of approach. We'll be looking to leverage that global capability that we now have with global specialty lines.
And in the domestic commercial business in The UK, it's really about the opportunity that comes with combining the Direct Line business that we acquired in late twenty twenty three, integrating that with the RSA offer and really having a differentiated proposition to the brokers in The UK. And that, again, as the remediation of the Direct Line business tapers off towards the end of this year, should start to stimulate top line opportunities in The UK and I space as well. So a lot of momentum on our on the IFC side in the positive direction, which is certainly moving in a different zone than the trajectory, which is, I would say, a mild tapering at an industry level driven by large accounts.
Excellent. Listen, I think given the profitability potential, I think expansion of global specialty lines, some major earnings growth opportunity. So again, with Intech, call it, roughly 1% global market share and no player having more than 10, Can you talk about some of the key strategies, both organic and inorganic, to build share there?
Yes, sure. So Global Specialty Lines, I guess, is the fusion of our Canadian, our U. S, our UK London market and our Europe specialty businesses. It represents on a global basis, 6,500,000,000.0 of premium, and it's operating at a sub-ninety combined ratio. And that sub-ninety is true in all of those four jurisdictions that I've mentioned.
So a very high performing operation and a huge opportunity. As you said, we now think with the geographies we're in, we're operating within 70% of the global specialty line space. And we have 1%, 1.5% market share in that space. So a huge opportunity. And as you know, Emmanuel Clark recently succeeded Mike Miller, who has moved on to the Intacct board as CEO of that operation.
Emmanuel had been on the Intact Board for a few years, so knows our way of working and knows the people and the leadership in Specialty Lines well. So it's been quite a seamless transition, I would say, and really now looking to capitalize on that global opportunity. And a few areas, I guess, firstly, deepening the distribution opportunity. We have multiple verticals in each geography that we operate in. And the distribution and the broker relationships have tended to be a bit siloed in each of those business verticals.
And we see a big opportunity to start to cross sell between those verticals and leverage the broker relationships that exist in individual verticals across other verticals. So that's one big area of opportunity. The other is expanding verticals that is that are quite profitable today in one jurisdiction and deploying them in others. One example would be in renewable energy, where the RSA business in The UK had quite a presence in the renewable space. That's not something in The U.
S. That we have. And we've now started in the second quarter, we've started to write some renewable energy business in The U. S. Itself.
Going the other direction, geographically, the surety operation in Canada, we're number one in surety. We have a top five, top six position in The U. S. And very profitable operation there. And we're now exploring the opportunity of surety in the Europe market.
So that type of geographical expansion is really another area of opportunity. A third would be on the MGA side. We have ownership now of MGAs. We've deployed capital north of CHF 300,000,000 since 2020. And when we look across the entire and we've picked up some MGAs through the M and A we've done with OneBeacon and also with RSA, those MGAs are writing about 1,000,000,000 of premium themselves today.
Not all of that is being written by our own balance sheets, but that represents another opportunity for both organic growth where we can perhaps take on some of those risks, but also continuing to bolster the MGA space is another inorganic, if you like, opportunity as well. And it's probably worth also mentioning beyond the growth top line growth opportunity, sustaining that sub-90s combined ratio is as important, if not more important, as we look to grow. And that's where the deployment of our pricing sophistication techniques is really making a difference. That's what's helped drive the One Beacon performance when we picked it up in 2017, was running at an upper 90s combined ratio. We've taken that now to, as I talked about, eight quarters sub-ninety.
But that's as a result of that pricing sophistication deployment and discipline and governance around that. And that has not been fully deployed across the Specialty Lines operation. That's a key enabler in my mind of being able to grow the Specialty Lines business whilst maintaining that type of profitability level. And maybe just then lastly, I guess, on the inorganic side, clearly now with a global business operating at that level of profitability, we're very much open to inorganic M and A, be it U. S, be it U.
K, Europe or a combination thereof in terms of opportunities that may present themselves.
Listen, our time has run down a little bit. We'll You drill down a little bit on M and A and capital deployment, some important piece of the investment thesis here. So can you talk a little bit about the current M and A environment, how that's kind of evolving? And again, kind of key areas you probably got the most appetite for at this point.
Yes. So maybe firstly, again, we're just reiterating the balance sheet is very well positioned in the current environment from a capital margin point of view, from a debt to capital leverage point of view and profitability is very strong. So from that point of view, we like having the excess capital from a defensive point of view. There is geopolitical uncertainty out there still, and we're well very well positioned in that context. And we're very well positioned to play offense if anything was to materialize from a correction perspective.
And I think that's exactly the place where we want to be. In terms of opportunities on the M and A front, Canada, we have just under 20% market share in Canada today. We certainly believe there'll be consolidation and continued consolidation in the Canadian market relative to our banking and life friends. It's not a it's a market that still has ways to go in terms of consolidation. We think 10 to 15 points of market share will trade over the next five to ten years.
We certainly expect to be involved in that when it occurs and very much able to take our market share and grow our grow, be it organic or inorganically, by about 50% in our view. Then the second is what I've just mentioned, that Global Specialty Lines opportunity. And I'd say Global Specialty Lines writ large in the context of the geographies that we operate, be it The U. S, be it London market, be it UK or Europe or indeed a combination of those in terms of opportunities where people and where businesses are operating across those jurisdictions. The third leg would be then the domestic UK commercial lines space.
There, we're still doing a little bit of work bringing that direct line business together with our RSA operation. And that will be coming to market under the new Intact brand in The UK market and Ireland towards the end of this year, a big opportunity for us to differentiate ourselves in the market moving forward and become what we think we will become, which is the number one commercial insurer in The UK market. And again, going from a number three position, our ambition there will be to look for opportunities to continue to bolster that platform as we look out into 2026. So those, from a pure manufacturing point of view, are the opportunity sets that we see. And then our continued consolidation of the distribution retail distribution in Canada, BrokerLink is continuing to move at pace and consolidate the market here.
And then on the Specialty Lines side of distribution, the MGA opportunity alignment with our risk appetite and our verticals in Specialty Lines provides a big opportunity to continue to take distribution income and have optionality on the underwriting in the specialty line space through MGAs. So a lot of activity, a lot of opportunity that we have in front of us. And when we talk about that opportunity set or addressable market, it's now 10 times what it was a decade ago when we were solely a Canadian business. And with the profitability profile that we have now across those geographies, we're quite enthusiastic about the path ahead.
That's excellent color. Listen, in terms of closing thoughts here, I mean, who do you see as the top two to three opportunities for Intact and its shareholders over the next two to three years?
Yes. So I see the light is flashing here, so I'll be brief. I guess I'll go back to what we said at Investor Day, and I think what people should expect us is to see us start to move to deliver on the objectives that we set out in Investor Day. Firstly, from a Canada point of view, we firmly believe we can take the Canadian business to CHF 25,000,000,000 by 02/1930. So that's first and foremost in Canada.
On the global specialty lines front, today, we're in the GBP 6,500,000,000.0 zone of top line. There, we can take that to 10,000,000,000 by 2030 while sustaining that sub-90s combined ratio. And then on The UK and I overall, the goal there is to double the size of The UK and I business through 2030 as well. So I think starting to see moves over the next few years that align with those objectives, I think, is what you can expect whilst continuing to deliver more broadly on the core financial objectives, the notes growth 10% compounded and at least 500 basis points of ROE outperformance.
Excellent. Well, Ken, it's been a great discussion. Again, I'd like to thank you personally for taking your time out of the day to chat with us. And again, on behalf of Scotiabank at Global Banking Markets, I'd like to thank the entire Intac organization for your continued support. Thank you.
Well, you, Phil, and thanks opportunity. For I really appreciate it. Thank you.
Thank you.