Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm here, as usual, with Marty Juravsky, our CFO, and Bart Bender, our SVP of Sales and Marketing, to go over Interfor's Q3 results and to comment on our outlook for the balance of the year. Joining us as well this morning is Ian Fillinger, our COO , who has been appointed by our board to take over as Interfor's President and CEO on January first next year, as I step aside. Ian will provide an update on our capital projects and his priorities for the company later on in the discussion. We're going to keep our remarks brief, and we'll turn the session over to you for questions as soon as we can.
To the extent that you've already seen the results of most others in our sector, there won't be any surprises about our results for the Q3. EBITDA was $16.8 million on sales of $486 million in the Q3, which compares with EBITDA of $12.6 million on sales of $481 million in the Q2. Lumber prices in the Q3 were mixed. The Yellow Pine composite, which covers about one-half of our production and sales, dropped by $18 a thousand, or just under 5% quarter-over-quarter, while the Western SPF composite went in the other direction, rising by $15 a thousand, or about 5%. Overall, our average sales realization dropped by $20 in the Q3.
The negative effects of lower sales returns in the Q3 were more than offset by the impact of higher production and shipment volumes during the quarter, which in turn had a positive impact on operating costs. In addition to our normal operating results, our financial results for the quarter included a $31.8 million pre-tax restructuring provision associated with the permanent closure of our Hammond sawmill and the reconfiguration of our coastal forestry and woodlands operations. Taken altogether, Interfor posted a net loss in the Q3 of $35.6 million after tax, compared with a loss of $11.2 million in the Q2. Lumber production in the Q3 was 685 million board feet, up from 647 million board feet in the Q2, an increase of 6%.
Production in the Southern region increased to 348 million board feet from 320 million board feet in the Q2, as the Monticello and Meldrim projects ramped up following the completion of the phase I capital projects of those mills. Production in our Western region, which includes our mills in British Columbia and Pacific Northwest, increased from 327 million board feet in the Q2 to 336 million board feet, as higher operating rates in the interior more than offset a drop of production in the Northwest. Capacity utilization in the Q3 was 85%, compared to 83% in the Q2, made up of 45% on the BC coast, 90% in the BC Interior, 82% in the Pacific Northwest, and 92% in the South.
During the quarter, we made the decision to reconfigure our BC Coastal business, including the permanent closure of the Hammond sawmill and the reorganization of our coastal forestry and woodlands operations. A few minutes ago, I spoke about the restructuring provision taken in the quarter to reflect this change, which includes $14 million in capital asset write-downs and $17.8 million in severance and other costs relating primarily to the coastal decision. For many years now, our Coastal business has been negatively impacted by log supply issues and other challenges. In addition to releasing significant amounts of working capital tied up in log and lumber inventories and freeing the Hammond property for sale, we believe the reconfiguration of our Coastal business will enable significantly better financial results from that business unit in the years ahead.
Finally, from my standpoint, there isn't much that I can report today on our transaction with Canfor regarding the cutting rights associated with their former Vavenby sawmill. The transaction, I think you should know, is subject to various consents, including that of the BC government. I can tell you that we're making good progress in our discussions with various stakeholders, and we remain optimistic that we'll receive the required approval and close the transaction prior to year-end. At that point, I'm going to turn it over to Bart, who can give you some comments about what's happening in the lumber market. And then, I'm going to turn it over after Bart to Ian, who can comment on capital projects and other priorities. So Bart, over to you.
Okay, thanks, Duncan. I'll provide a brief outlook on the lumber market. New home construction is gradually increasing, particularly single family, as purchasers take advantage of lower interest rates and improved affordability. The repair, remodel, end- use sector is steady. We expect favorable home prices and interest rates to continue to help here. In North America, in market inventories, as difficult as they are to accurately read, appear normal for this time of year. Order files across our network of mills are slow. We expect attention to soon turn to next year, which should bring in a level of investment in inventories in preparation for seasonal spring demand. As always, weather between now and the spring of next year will be a factor. Overseas, our business has improved quarter-over-quarter from a volume standpoint.
However, inventories remain elevated in most markets, and competition from other countries is heightened. On the supply side of the equation, there continues to be some significant shifts, and it's our opinion that the full impact of the 2 billion ft of, or the over 2 billion ft of curtailments in BC, have not been fully realized in the markets. Canadian shipments to the U.S. are trending downwards, and we expect this to continue. In terms of other regions, we see stable supply year- over- year from Imports, Southeast, PNW, and the Inland Empire. No significant increases or declines. Turning to our Specialty business, Cedar in particular, we are in a transition.
With the closure of our Hammond mill, we have been busy transitioning our customers over to BC Interior and West Coast Cedar... Our interior Western Red Cedar business has grown to be comparable in size to what we previously produced on the coast. Overall, long-term market fundamentals remain favorable, and we expect lumber demand to continue to grow. I'll stop there, Duncan, and turn it back over to you.
Great. Thanks, Bart. Ian, if you could make some comments on the status of our capital projects and your priorities for the company going forward?
Sure. So our phase I capital projects, just to remind everyone, were Monticello in Arkansas, and our Meldrim mill in Georgia. Both of those projects are complete, spending's done, and we're in a ramp-up period and very, very close to declaring those projects complete from a pro forma achievement standpoint. Phase II is our Georgetown, South Carolina mill, Eatonton in Georgia, and both of those projects are underway with certain phases happening. Georgetown, you know, completing some projects in the sawmill and slider, and Eatonton with some civil and building work underway at this point in time.
And then phase III is really a handful of discretionary projects that are high return, and those are being planned and executed on as we speak also. As far as the priorities that Duncan's alluded to, for us, there's completing the the first priority to completing the execution of the capital projects, and achieving the post-project ramp-ups, priority one. Two, completing the Canfor Vavenby purchase is a top priority for us. Maintaining our financial flexibility, managing our working capitals carefully, scrutinizing our spending, and improving operational efficiencies everywhere we can, like we do every day, and then monitoring market conditions and adjusting as required. I think that probably is a good summary of our key priorities.
Okay, great. Thanks, Ian. So in August, it was announced that I was gonna be stepping down as Interfor's CEO at the end of this year, that Ian was gonna be taking over on the 1st of January. I've been in this role now for more than 20 years, and frankly, it's time for a change. Ian's been with Interfor for more than 15 years, and he's done an outstanding job for us, in my opinion, will do a great job for the company going forward. I think this is his first time on this call, and I thought it would be good to have him provide you an update on our capital projects and his priorities. But that really brings our discussion here to an end, operator, and I'm gonna turn this session over to our guests for questions. So over to you.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, I'd like to remind everyone that in order to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for just a moment to consult the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and Duncan, congratulations, and all the best for the future.
Thanks, Ketan.
Maybe to start off, Ian, can you just refresh our memory on what kind of returns you are expecting from these phase I and phase II projects and sort of rough timeline?
Sorry, was it-
He was asking for returns.
Oh, for returns. The returns are, internally, our targets are to achieve a 20% IRR of less than five-year payback on the big strategic projects, in phase I and phase II. Phase I, the ramp-up is really, Ketan, essentially done. There's a little bit more work to achieve a couple of the KPIs that the Monticello and Meldrim team are focused on. Georgetown and Eatonton are completing, you know, Georgetown, you know, somewhere in Q1 2020, near the end of that time period. Eatonton, as far as the construction and commissioning goes, is mid-2021.
Got it. Just to be clear, the IRR that you talked about, 20%, that's post-tax or pre-tax?
That's pre-tax. It's a cash-on-cash pre-tax return.
Got it. Okay, perfect. Thanks a lot and then just switching gears here. With European pine beetle outbreak, are you concerned that lumber imports into the U.S. from Europe could go up meaningfully? I know that year to date, we haven't seen much of an impact using the numbers, but as you look ahead, do you guys see this as a potential risk?
Okay. Now, let me comment on that, maybe Bart can follow up on it. It's something we're monitoring. In the case of Europe, it's a spruce beetle as opposed to a pine beetle. But it's traded or driven by the same set of factors as we've seen here in North America with the pine beetle in British Columbia and in other jurisdictions. So it's starting to see ramped up harvest levels and production levels in Europe, and we're starting to see product, both logs and lumber, in the different markets of the world. W e had one of our senior people over in Europe last week, talking to the people over there, trying to get an understanding of...
just exactly what's happening, what the shelf life looks like, what the harvesting plans are, and where we're likely to see that product in the various markets of the world. So it's, it's something worth paying attention to, for sure.
Yeah, the only thing I would add to that is, you know, within the markets, lots of discussion taking place with our customers. I think it's an uncertainty on, on the magnitude side of the equation. But I think it's worth pointing out that the constraints that they have over there are, you know, in some respects, the same constraints that we have here when it comes to people and equipment and mills. S o I think that there is an ability to flex on volumes, but, but, but it's not infinite. So there are some constraints on, on just how much can be produced out of those logs.
Got it. So just one last from me, one from me. When I think about 2020 CapEx, what's kind of a good kind of ballpark number for now?
Yeah, hey, it's Marty. We haven't formalized our budget for next year, our capital budget, but if you look at this year, we'll probably be spending a little less than $200 million. In 2020, we'll be substantially less than that, probably in the $140 million-$150 million zone. We'll refine that over the next little bit, but for planning purposes, you can use that as a frame of reference.
Got it. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over, and good luck as we get into 2020.
Thank you.
Thanks, Peter.
The next question comes from the line of Hamir Patel with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Good morning. Ian, I just wanted to follow up on the capital projects. Can you give us a sense, given the sort of staging of everything, how much lumber output growth would you be expecting in 2020, and then, you know, looking beyond that as well?
So the phase I projects, Monticello and Meldrim, will add in the neighborhood of, you know, 150-155 million ft to our south platform. Then the phase II, which is Georgetown, Eatonton, and Thomaston, will add 275 million board ft.
Now, that's over several years, so the impact for 2020 is probably about 100 million ft increment over 2019.
Great. Thanks. Thanks, Marty. And, Bart, I just wanted to ask you if you had a sense as to where inventories are in the channel, and also any indication yet from the big box stores about what sort of volume growth they might be planning for next year?
Okay, well, that's a difficult question. The inventories are always difficult to gauge, really, aside from the occasional reports that you see, it's all a matter of just discussions one by one with your customers a nd I, and I would say that, I would, I would characterize the inventories today as normal for this time of year, maybe even just a tad below that. T he reason I say that is you can see that in their purchasing behavior, when they're buying things and, and, frequency, and you can tell that there are some holes in some areas. But overall, I don't think the distributor level has a lot of pressure, at this time, in terms of their inventory levels.
Looking at the big box stores, you know, that, that is a, you know, your information is probably as good as mine. Our business with the box stores is, is not as overly significant. We have just a couple of very small programs with them and those programs are continuing, the volumes that we've been selling them historically have been, pretty steady. So that's all I can really say about that.
Great. Thanks, Bart. That's all I had. All the best in retirement.
Thanks, Hamir.
The next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn, RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Yeah, thanks very much. Morning, guys. Maybe to start with, congratulating you, Duncan, on the retirement. I actually thought you'd never retire, but, you know, congratulations.
Thanks.
Maybe from your perspective, 20 years in the chair and a lot of leadership on the softwood lumber file, how do you see this file progressing going forward here?
Well, I think we've said consistency- consistently, Paul, that not much is gonna happen on the trade front until the legal process starts to work its way through the system. That's, you know, that's happening now. I don't think there's gonna be much more is gonna happen until we get some clarity on that side of things, going forward. So nothing, nothing quickly. The fact that the federal election is now out of the way, I think is helpful from the Canadian standpoint. I've said on this call before, how much regard I've got for Chrystia Freeland and how she's handled things from a Canadian standpoint. I think she's been great. But I think we also need to recognize that we're about to move into another political cycle in the U.S., and if nothing else, the whole softwood files is a political file.
So I think you're gonna be bucking some headwinds from a U.S. political standpoint, if we think we're going to find any resolution on this. So my guidance to everybody that I talk to is this thing historically takes time. The arguments on our behalf are good. We just need to have the patience and the wherewithal to be able to work our way through the system and find those windows of opportunity when economic and political realities and legal realities allow opportunities for solutions to be devised. So I think the net message is, you know, don't expect much to happen here in the near term.
Okay, so is it safe to say the legal will be wrapped up in 2020 and maybe you get a political decision or compromise negotiation in 2021?
No. Well, I don't know whether we'll get a decision in 2021 or not, but the legal process usually takes somewhere between 3-5 years to work its way through the system to the point where you're getting some ultimate clarity on the case itself. So I think we're still in the early innings, or if you want to use a football analogy, we're somewhere between probably the Q1 and the Q2 of the whole process, Paul.
Okay, thanks very much and then, maybe over to Bart. On markets, Bart, you're commenting that overseas volumes are up, but lots of competition. What has that done for price, and what's your outlook going forward?
Well, it depends on the market, I suppose, Japan being a very different market than China, but I have a feeling you're asking mainly about China. Y ou know, we've been dealing with excessive inventories in that market as well and so whenever you get that kind of a situation, it tends to put a blanket on your ability to flex on price. So the added variable there is the European volumes that are moving their way in and competing against SPF type products at various levels, so at the low-grade level and the mid-grade level. S o I think, you know, the Chinese, we don't anticipate a lot of price appreciation.
You know, obviously, the North American market pricing isn't really encouraging us significantly to do anything there. So, you know, we think it's gonna be a matter of companies deciding to what degree they want to participate at the going market prices in China.
Okay and then, just, Duncan, you referenced the Canfor transaction, but, we've seen Conifex, Hampton approved by the government. Is yours next in line? Have you submitted your request?
We have submitted the request. We are. I would like to believe we're next in line. I think our situation is quite a bit different for a variety of reasons than the Hampton- Conifex transaction. We're two well-positioned, well-financed companies in Canfor and Interfor. We're just working our way through this process in a very systematic way. Very good cooperation between ourselves and Canfor. Very good progress dealing with the various stakeholders in the area, and we just wanted to be very careful as we worked our way through that whole piece to make sure that we got the arrangement set up properly. Now we're moving into the formal part of the discussion with the provincial government, which is happening as we speak.
All right. That's all I had. Best of luck, guys.
Yeah, thanks, Paul.
Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and the number one on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from the line of Sean Steuart with TD Securities. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just, just one question for me. Marty, the messaging around the, the lack of activity on the buyback has been you're going through an extended, really deep cash flow trough. You've got a lot of money to deploy towards CapEx and, and hopefully the tenure acquisition as well. I, I guess the, the question I have is, and this is all dependent on share price, I suppose, and valuation, but what sort of visibility would you need on cash flows improving, and what sort of liquidity cushion would you be comfortable with, proceeding with, with buyback activity? What sort of backdrop do you need or confidence do you need in the market recovering to get busy again?
Yeah, you know, it's a great question, Sean, and I'll give a non-answer answer to it, how's that? Because there's no one variable. We're constantly looking at all of those things that you talked about, some of which are quantitative and some of which are frankly quite qualitative in terms of our judgments of how much dry powder do we think is appropriate, given, you know, what is frankly a fairly unpredictable market from time to time, and also fairly unpredictable in terms of the opportunities that present themselves in those areas of market volatility. So we're constantly recalibrating those things. We like the flexibility that we have right now. We like the dry powder that we have right now.
So we've been inactive under our share buyback program, as you've pointed out for the last little bit, but it's really all about part of trying to balance off the various opportunities that are in front of us. T here's no formula that we have per se. We're just constantly looking at all those variables, and right now, we just think it's appropriate, given the market conditions and the opportunities that are in front of us, both internal and external, to keep that dry powder as we have it right now.
Awesome. Thanks very much. That's all I had. Congratulations, Duncan, and, and Ian as well.
Thank you, Sean.
There are no further questions at this time. I turn the call back over to our presenters.
Yeah, thanks. Thanks, operator. You know, I normally end these calls, thanking people for their interest in our company and, and saying that I'll see you again at the end of the next quarter, but that's not gonna be the case for me. This is my last call as Interfor CEO, and I'd like to thank—personally, I'd like to thank everybody who's attended this call and the other calls that we've had over, you know, the last couple of decades. But you folks have been very fair with us and very fair with me. I've enjoyed working with you, and I hope you folks feel the same. So thanks, everybody.
The group around the table, under Ian's leadership with Marty and Bart, will be here at the end of the next quarter to review Interfor's Q4 and 2019 results, and to talk about the future of the company. So thanks, everybody. Have a good day. Both Marty and myself, and I guess Ian, are around later on today, if you've got any follow-up questions, but thanks very much. Take care.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.