Hello everyone, and welcome to Lithium Argentina fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded. After the prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during that time, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. I'd now like to hand the call over to Kelly O'Brien, Investor Relations. Please go on.
Thank you for the introduction. I want to welcome everyone to our conference call this morning. Joining me on the call today to discuss the fourth quarter and full year 2025 results is Sam Pigott, CEO of Lithium Argentina. Alex Shulga, our CFO, will also be available for Q&A. Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our fourth quarter 2025 earnings results were press released earlier this morning, and the corresponding documents are available on our website. I remind you that some of the statements made during this call, including any production guidance, expected company performance, update on development plans, the timing of our project and market conditions may be considered forward-looking statements. Please note the cautionary language about forward-looking statements in our presentation, MD&A, and news releases. I now turn the call over to Sam Pigott.
Thanks, Kelly. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. 2025 marked an important year for Lithium Argentina. Caucharí-Olaroz demonstrated its ability as a stable cash generating operation, while we significantly advanced our next phase of growth. Starting with operations, Caucharí-Olaroz is performing exceptionally well. For the year, production was over 34,000 tonnes, reaching the high end of our guidance range and ending the year near capacity with fourth quarter production at 97%. We are now seeing that strong operational performance translated into lower costs, with fourth quarter operating cash costs around $5,600 per ton. Following year-end, the operation distributed $85 million of cash, $42 million for Lithium Argentina's share, and we completed a $130 million six-year loan facility, strengthening our balance sheet and highlighting the financial capacity of our assets.
In parallel, we were able to make meaningful progress across our growth pipeline. This included the consolidation of PPG, supporting a more efficient development plan as outlined in the scoping study released late last year, as well as the submission of RIGI applications for both PPG and Stage 2. Since completion of the chemical plant in late 2023, production has steadily increased. 2024 represented our first full year of production. While in 2025 the focus shifted to consistency, recoveries, and sustaining higher production levels for longer periods of time. During the year, the team made continued improvements across several areas, including brine management, wellfield optimization, process stability in the plant, and reduced reagent usage, which together supported more reliable and consistent operating performance. That progress resulted in the operations achieving close to nameplate capacity in the fourth quarter, with production of approximately 9,700 tonnes.
This operational performance translated into strong financial results, which, despite the low lithium price environment in 2025, Caucharí-Olaroz generated $56 million in adjusted EBITDA. I want to spend a moment on cost, because I'd argue this is just as important as the production story, if not more so. Since Q1 2024, cash costs have declined 30% from over $8,000 per tonne to around $5,600 in Q4. That improvement is broad-based. Reagents, maintenance, camp services, overhead. Every major cost line moved in the right direction. This is not just fixed costs at higher volumes. Much of this reduction is in variable costs driven by our efforts to optimize the operation following the ramp-up. The best way to show this structural change is from looking at the impact to our revised long-term estimate.
Based on the current cost structure at full capacity, we now forecast costs of approximately $5,400 per ton, down from $6,500 a year ago. That's a 17% reduction to our own prior estimates. It's important to note that we're not done. We and our partner Ganfeng remain fully focused on driving further efficiencies with both stage one and as we grow. On the next slide is an updated cost curve, which includes actual operating performance at Caucharí-Olaroz. Not a feasibility study. It's not a projection. These are actual costs from an operation that has now been running and improving quarter-over-quarter. This operation is one of the few sources of lithium chemical production to come online outside of China in the past 10 years.
We now have the opportunity to scale from 40,000 tonnes to over 200,000 tonnes of lithium chemicals to serve global markets directly from the Americas. Turning briefly to the market. Since mid-2025, there has been a significant recovery in lithium prices, supported by a strengthening demand across both electric vehicles and increasingly energy storage systems. On ESS specifically, the wide range of forecasts you'll see from global banks and consultants reflects how new and large this demand is becoming. This gap is particularly visible even in 2025, where estimates, especially those outside of Asia, are still adjusting to how material ESS has become as a driver of overall lithium demand.
For Lithium Argentina, this rise in ESS demand aligns well with our existing operations and growth platform that we've developed in terms of scale, cost, and ability to integrate with a more global customer base. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect production in the range of 35,000 tonnes-40,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, reflecting our focus on sustaining stable operations at current levels and long-term optimization. Based on our production targets for 2026, Caucharí-Olaroz is expected to support significant EBITDA under a range of lithium price scenarios. Using today's market price of about $20,000 per tonne and the midpoint of production guidance would imply around $460 million
Ladies and gentlemen, please be on standby. We will just address a quick technical issue. Again, please be on standby. We will be back momentarily. Thank you.
Apologies for that. My line dropped. Obviously we're not recording this. I'll carry on where I left off. Based on our production targets for 2026, Caucharí-Olaroz is expected to support significant EBITDA under a range of lithium price scenarios. Using today's market price of about $20,000 per ton and the midpoint of production guidance would imply around $460 million in EBITDA for 2026. This incorporates actual results year to date and adjustments to market price. From a cash flow perspective, this should translate into strong cash conversion supported by accelerated depreciation and low sustaining capital requirements of approximately $15 million-$20 million per year. Following year-end, the operation distributed $85 million of cash, increasing Lithium Argentina's cash position in Q1 to now around $95 million.
In March, at the corporate level, we also completed a $130 million debt facility with Ganfeng, increasing our balance sheet flexibility. With Caucharí-Olaroz now operating at close to capacity and costs well below $6,000 per ton, we are turning our attention to what comes next. The opportunity in front of us is significant. We have the potential to grow from approximately 40,000 tonnes per annum today to over 200,000 across a series of phases using Caucharí-Olaroz stage one as the foundation. In 2025, we laid the groundwork. The resource base is defined, the permits and RIGI applications are advancing, and the economics, as the PPG scoping study showed, are compelling in nearly all pricing scenarios.
We recently published an updated resource and reserve estimate for Caucharí-Olaroz, reinforcing the scale of the basin, with total measured and indicated resources increasing by approximately 42%, positioning Caucharí-Olaroz among the largest lithium brine assets globally. Beyond this, our platform includes PPG, another large-scale brine resource with over 15 million tonnes of measured and indicated LCE resources. Together with Caucharí-Olaroz and PPG, we are advancing two of the largest lithium brine resources globally, providing the right scale and brine chemistry to support our growth plans. We continue to see a more supportive investment environment emerging in Argentina, with the RIGI helping to attract long-term capital and improve project economics, as reflected in the more than $70 billion in investment applications submitted or approved under the program. RIGI applications for both Caucharí-Olaroz Stage 2 and PPG have been submitted.
As we look ahead, we are scaling our lithium platform in Argentina. At Caucharí-Olaroz, we are advancing the Stage 2 expansion plan of 45,000 tonnes, leveraging our operating track record, existing infrastructure, resource scale, and using the significant cash flow from stage one to provide a strong foundation to support the execution of this expansion. In parallel, at PPG, we are progressing what is targeted to be Argentina's largest lithium operation, with a phased development plan to grow to 150,000 tonnes LCE. Here we are working closely with Ganfeng to bring in the necessary financing and are seeing strong engagement from customers and potential minority partners. The next phase of execution is defined by a series of clear milestones to de-risk this growth, including RIGI approvals, finalizing the stage two development plan, and financing PPG.
In conclusion, we're incredibly proud of what we have accomplished and excited for the years to come. In 2025, we delivered what we set out to do, establish a strong operating foundation with industry-leading costs, strengthen our balance sheet, and have taken meaningful steps to de-risk our growth pipeline. Looking ahead, we are in a very strong position to build off what we have already accomplished at Caucharí-Olaroz Stage 1 and scale from 40,000 tonnes-200,000 tonnes. We have world-class teams, a proven track record, two of the largest and highest quality lithium brine resources globally, a much improved investment environment in Argentina, and a market that is undergoing strong demand tailwinds from continued EV growth and accelerated demand from energy storage build-outs.
We are focused on de-risking and advancing a path to more than forecasting our lithium production and creating the largest lithium platform in Argentina.
With that, we're ready to open up the line for questions.
We are now opening the floor for question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Please limit your question to one question and one follow-up. We will pause for a brief moment to wait for the questions to come in. Your first question comes from the line of Anthony Taglieri of Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now open.
Good morning, Sam and team. First of all, congrats on the excellent cost performance in Q4. My first question is related to cash cost expectations for 2026, noting your new long-term goal of $5,400 a ton. How should we expect this to evolve in 2026? Is $5,600 a tonne the new base case for Q1 moving forward between that 35,000 tonnes-40,000 tonnes of production on an annual basis?
Yeah. Thanks for the question. In Q4, we delivered $5,600 per tonne in cash cost. These were really driven not just by volume increases reaching 97% capacity, but also structural changes we made to the cost profile. That would include things like reagents, camp services, maintenance, and optimization of our workforce at camp. With all those changes and what we realized in Q4, we did update our long-term cost estimate at full capacity of $5,400, which is a 17% decrease from what we put out last year at $6,500 per tonne.
We would expect some variability quarter-over-quarter tied to volumes produced and timing of cost, but certainly sub $6,000. In that $5,600 is a pretty good indication of where things are likely to settle throughout the year.
Okay, great. That's helpful. Thank you. Maybe as a follow-up on Q1 realized price expectations, could you bridge us from sort of the average Chinese benchmark price of approximately $21,000 a tonne to date in Q1 versus the expected realized price of $17,000 a tonne? Simple math after considering that maybe that implies around $1,900 a tonne of processing costs there. I s that something we should expect moving forward for the rest of the year?
Yeah. I mean, as a general statement, our pricing today is based on the market price for battery quality lithium carbonate outside of China. That does strip out VAT from the ex-work reference prices you're typically seeing quoted by SMM, Fastmarkets, et cetera. Beyond that, the adjustments for quality are around mid-single digits from that reference price. That's something that we continue to monitor with our partner Ganfeng, but at the moment, that's what we're realizing.
Thank you. That's helpful. I'll pass on.
Your next question comes from the line of Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Hey, Sam. You talked about the different opportunities working at any price level. I think your partner Ganfeng would sort of say similar things. Can you talk about some of the volatility we've seen in the global markets the last few weeks, if that's changed any of the risk factors when you think about Caucharí-Olaroz Phase 2 or PPG? And then also, would your objectives be the same as Ganfeng? Like, obviously they're not, you're different companies, but could you talk about maybe how some of your objectives for growth the next couple of years could be similar or different versus your partner?
Sure. Thanks, Joel. I mean, as a broad statement, like, we are obviously monitoring the impacts of the situation in the Middle East. We're not seeing any material impact to our operations. In a lot of ways, we're pretty well set up and insulated from increased cost to oil and gas prices. Our largest energy input by far is kind of the solar radiation onto our ponds. We've done a series of analysis over the past couple of weeks just given the developments in the Middle East and the energy complex. Our direct energy exposure is very limited, so approximately or less than 2% of our total operating costs are tied to diesel and natural gas.
Then looking further afield into our indirect costs associated with logistics and other cost lines, it all remains below 15% of our OpEx, which is exposed to that. We're very well insulated. W e're not a traditional kind of mining operation with a heavy reliance on diesel for mining or crushing or ore haulage. From that perspective, we're doing very well. All of our deliveries and shipments are meeting their targets on schedule. Demand is still being pulled very strongly from China in our offtake agreement with Ganfeng. We obviously do monitor it, but are very pleased to report that minimal, if any impacts are being experienced to date, and very limited likelihood for escalation.
In terms of our growth ambitions with Ganfeng, I think both of us understand the unique position that we have here today. We've brought it online Caucharí-Olaroz exceptionally well. Costs are again below where we thought they'd be at full capacity going back last year, $5,600 in Q4. The ability to kind of more than double production at Caucharí-Olaroz. Then similarly, the largest potential lithium project in Argentina, 150,000 tonnes phased across three 350,000-tonne phases, expecting operating costs to be low $5,000 a tonne. I think we have the right type of growth. We now have proven that we can execute. I think the partnership is working very well.
Ganfeng has set pretty ambitious targets for where they want to see their lithium production by 2030. A big part of that growth is through their portfolio with us in Argentina. I think it's around financing. Ganfeng is a $20 billion market cap company. Huge access to capital in China. I think the question was always are we gonna get pulled in one direction or another? I think the answer to that is our shareholder agreements provide joint control over key decisions, including expansions.
We do have some control over our destiny, but the way things are developing now, Caucharí-Olaroz S tage 2 at today's prices, stage one would be generating somewhere in the order of $460 million of EBITDA, which provides quite a bit of cash flow to execute on a stage two. We're obviously waiting for a development plan mid-year. PPG, when we decided to put all these assets together with Ganfeng, we made it very clear and it's a formal agreement to work together on financing plans that wouldn't require shareholders to contribute equity. We're seeing a lot of engagement around that. There are a lot of groups that really appreciate the scale of this business. They appreciate the team that's been able to execute at Caucharí-Olaroz.
We're very confident we'll be able to put together a financing package that does not require equity contributions from shareholders. I think we're in today's market, I think we're very much aligned in terms of pursuing both growth plans simultaneously.
Okay. Now I'll just follow up with, I know you and Ganfeng have talked about wanting to put on some DLE plants and trial it out at different assets in Argentina, be it Caucharí-Olaroz, Mariana. Can you talk about at least for Caucharí-Olaroz,, what is the DLE plan there? Or is it more gonna be a stage two idea?
It's gonna be a stage two. The DLE, all the results that we're working with Ganfeng on, they're really taking the lead, as you would expect in terms of new technologies, applying new technologies to brine assets in Argentina. Right now the focus for us is completing this development plan with Ganfeng, and we're targeting mid-2026. With that, we'll obviously have a lot more to share through that report, and other disclosures. I would say the bar has been raised in terms of what we'd wanna see from that new technology. C onventional has pluses and minuses, but we're seeing a lot more of the pluses right now.
I mean, our cost profile has come to a level that I think we were all very impressed with. These are structural changes to the cost profile of the business. A long-term target of $5,400 a tonne, which is very, very real. I mean, we just came out of Q4 at $5,600 a tonne. This already places Caucharí-Olaroz in certainly in the first quartile of the cost curve. W e look favorably on the technology that Ganfeng has been pushing ahead, but it has to deliver better CapEx and better OpEx, which we're confident it will. We'll disclose more when the development plan is finalized mid-2026.
Thank you.
Next question comes from the line of Corinne Blanchard of Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Hey, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. Maybe the first question, I want to come back on the pricing. Obviously this is quite a big jump from Q2 2021 to Q2 due to the spot market. Can you maybe share your view on expectations throughout 2026 and maybe kind of a base case scenario view here that would be helpful? Then maybe the second question, maybe if you can just comment on the financing environment for the expansion. I know you cannot comment extensively on Ganfeng, but there is definitely as well question coming from the investors and balance sheet. Anything you can address there. Thank you.
I mean, pricing is, Corinne, very, very difficult to predict. I think the visibility that we get is largely through our partner Ganfeng, which is the largest lithium producer in China. They're seeing very, very strong demand. It is really based largely on ESS. I think the view is pricing could remain volatile, but expectations are for pricing to remain in and around where it is trading today. I'm not saying that's necessarily our expectation, but that's what we're hearing through our partner in China. I think part of that is just around, and I think we had it in one of our slides, because ESS is relatively new, it's growing very quickly.
It's relatively opaque versus tracking EVs. There's just not the same maturity of data collection and disclosure that there is in the automotive business. There is a huge divergence of views in terms of what the market is going to be in 2030. E ven in 2025, I think people are still trying to reconcile what the actual kind of lithium demand pull through from the ESS installations or shipments was. I mean, Ganfeng's view, sitting in China, and this is shared by many of the other kind of end customers that we've discussed over the last couple months, is that energy storage is certainly on the high end of the bank and consultant range.
That should be very supportive to lithium prices going forward. Sorry, your second question. Do you mind repeating it?
Yeah, no problem. Just asking about financing. Again, you kind of fenced a little bit previously with Ganfeng's view. If you can talk about balance sheet and convertibles and what you intend to do there.
Yeah. I mean, I think we're very, very pleased with the progress we've made in strengthening our balance sheet over the last year. We've closed the $130 million six-year debt facility with Ganfeng. We distributed $85 million from the operation, $42 million of which came to LAR. Our cash position is just under $100 million. Meanwhile, today's prices aren't anywhere near them. The project is generating meaningful cash flow. I think taken together, the cash we have on hand, the cash flow capacity of our operations in a wide range of pricing scenarios provides us with a lot of flexibility and optionality to address the convertible.
I'd say, one thing that I think is important to note is the lithium price environment has been very challenging over the last couple of years. Anybody following the space would appreciate that for being a fact. Meanwhile, LAR has not issued a single share for any financing purposes. And I think that speaks to our discipline, quality of our approach, and we're in a very good position right now. That's on the convert. In terms of the financing plans for our growth, I think there are two different distinct paths between PPG and Caucharí-Olaroz. Caucharí-Olaroz Stage 2 has Stage 1 as a foundational backstop. So today's price is $460 million of EBITDA, which can provide some funding to the project.
It can also allow us to access debt to finance phase two, and we'll have a lot more information mid-year with the development plan. On PPG, this is a joint effort with Ganfeng, working with some of Ganfeng's global customers to look at different potential minority partners to bring into that project to provide the majority, if not all the equity financing required.
Your next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson of Scotiabank. Your line is now open.
Thank you very much, and good morning. Hoping I could ask three quick ones. Sam, your costs have improved dramatically over the past eight quarters or so. I'm just curious, do you think your costs are at sub-$6,000 a competitive advantage? Why I'm asking that is, do you feel that competitive projects in Argentina have the ability to also reach that sub-$6,000 area? Or do you think LAR is unique in that space?
I mean, there are a lot of different projects in Argentina. It's hard to paint them all with the same brush. Chemistry composition is obviously a very important factor. Scale is an important factor to get costs down. The ability to kind of execute in the technology selection. All different factors, but certainly brines do represent a very attractive resource base to deliver low cost lithium units into the market. I think the second factor is just in terms of what it represents overall is brine seems to be like the lowest cost in some ways most resilient reliable source of lithium chemical production outside of China. The entire industry is fixated on how to deliver these chemicals without going through China eventually.
There have been a number of attempts and efforts to bring in conversion capacity outside of China to process spodumene concentrate. I think to date , those plans have been challenging from a cost perspective, from an execution perspective. I think my answer is yes, Argentina can be low-cost producers. Yes, I think there is something fundamentally different about what LAR has been able to accomplish at Caucharí-Olaroz, and I think that's related to the quality of our underlying resource, as well as the design of our Stage 1 plant.
Great. Thank you. The second question, I see that stage two for Caucharí-Olaroz is rated at 45,000 tonnes. Can you talk about the bottlenecking opportunities at Stage 1? Is it possible to get that to 45,000 tonnes? Why or why not?
Yes, I think with further investment, I think we probably could push it above 40,000 tonnes. I think one of the realities in planning stage two is that we're currently under a RIGI application process. RIGI is a very attractive investment framework in Argentina. It provides a number of fiscal benefits, lower tax rates from 35% to 25%. Some changes in terms of VAT treatment was a non-cash item. But more importantly, any qualified RIGI, approved RIGI project has very clear ability to take cash out of Argentina and keep it out of Argentina. I think our preference certainly is to make investments in stage two, whereby all of that production, sales, profit will be captured under the RIGI.
Great. Just my last one. Sam, you have a lot of experience in lithium and in China, and I was hoping you could shed some insights into how you think sodium batteries are evolving, and what it means to lithium demand growth rates and maybe on the EV and on the battery storage side. Thank you.
Yeah. I mean, we typically hear a lot about sodium-ion batteries whenever the lithium price starts to spike. This start of this cycle is no different. Yeah, I think our view is that both technologies are improving. LFP has a significant advantage right now in terms of energy density, in terms of weight, and in terms of cycle life, I should say. All those are very important for obviously the EV segment, any mobility application, but also energy storage. There's still a significant economic advantage. I think sodium is a legitimate risk if lithium prices were to kind of approach where they were last cycle. That starts to really eat into the economics, and forces people to look at substitution.
I don't think we view it as a material threat at today's price level or even significantly higher than today.
Great. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Mohamed Sidibé of National Bank. Your line is now open.
Thanks, Sam and team, for taking my question and congrats on a good quarterly cost performance. You answered my questions on the growth, the cadence of your growth projects as well as financing on that. Maybe back on the cash operating cost that you have. I know you touched on the no impact on fuel and diesel, but are you seeing anything from reagents pricing impacting your costs right now at your operations? Thank you.
As of now, we're seeing very limited impact. Most of the impact would obviously be the input cost to producing the reagents that we have. We obviously use soda ash, lime, hydrochloric acid. I mean, obviously, all of those do use diesel as an input to the actual production of the reagent itself. None of it travels through the Strait of Hormuz. None of it travels through the Middle East, the Red Sea. From a shipping logistics standpoint, it is somewhat unaffected. We do understand that the war in the Middle East, the conflict in the Middle East is creating some issues for various kind of fertilizer inputs. We're not exposed to anything of that order of magnitude.
Our exposure is really around what is the diesel price gonna do, and are those diesel prices gonna be forced down into higher input costs for us. So far it seems minimal, if at all.
Great. Thank you.
As of right now, we don't have any pending questions. I'd now like to hand the call back to Kelly for closing remarks.
Great. Thank you, Ellie. Thank you everyone for joining us this morning. Please feel free to reach out directly to the team if you have any additional questions. Have a great day. Thanks.
Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.