Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Linamar Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If anyone has any difficulties during the conference, please press star-zero for operator assistance at any time. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Linamar Executive Chair, Linda Hasenfratz. Please go ahead.
Thanks so much. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter and year-end conference call. Before I begin, I'll draw your attention to the disclaimer that is currently being broadcast. Joining me this afternoon, as usual, are members of our executive team, Jim Jarrell, our CEO, Dale Schneider, our CFO, both of whom will be addressing the call formally, and also available for questions are Mark Stoddart, Kevin Allison, and some members of our corporate IR, marketing, finance, and legal teams. Okay, let's get started with some highlights of the quarter and Linamar's strategy. So first, a quick reminder of the key value drivers that make Linamar such a great investment and how we realized on that in 2024. First, Linamar has a long track record of consistent, sustainable results driving out of our diverse businesses.
2024 marks the tenth time in the last 15 years that we have grown our bottom line in double digits, and that, I think, is consistent, sustainable results. Second key point is around flexibility to mitigate risk. This couldn't be more important at this juncture. Our equipment is programmable, flexible equipment. It can be used on a large variety of types of products. In fact, 84% of our equipment is flexible and can be easily programmed for further jobs. We have further purposefully chosen to focus on products in our mobility business, regardless of what type of propulsion vehicle it might be used on, that utilize similar processing and therefore the same equipment. This flexibility has really paid off in the last 12 months of dynamic markets shifting around in terms of types of propulsion. Third, we've always run a prudent conservative balance sheet.
We target keeping net debt to EBITDA under 1.5, and 2024 closed at a very healthy 0.79 net debt to normalized EBITDA, which is an excellent position to be in, in this timeframe of significant distress in the automotive market in particular. We will be the winner of takeover work in this environment because we are strong and healthy financially, and that is what our customers are looking for. And finally, we're focused on growth to drive our EPS and share price, of course, but also returning cash to shareholders through both our dividend program as well as our common share repurchases, which, we have proven with our very active NCIB program, where we've already purchased 1.4 million shares back. Okay, turning to highlights for the quarter, I would identify these as our most relevant accomplishments.
First, we had a really excellent quarter in terms of free cash flow, capping off the year, delivering nearly CAD 800 million in free cash flow, which is outstanding. Second, we delivered another year of double-digit earnings growth as well as margin expansion in a down market for all three of our businesses, which is excellent. Third, we had a fantastic quarter in new business wins for our mobility business that really rocketed our launch book back up to nearly CAD 3.5 billion. This includes CAD 150 million in takeover work won last year, which actually now is hitting CAD 180 million, and we think will only continue to grow. And finally, as noted, we supported a weaker share price in this challenging environment with our buyback.
Now, turning to the numbers, we saw sales hit CAD 2.4 billion, down slightly over last year on markets down significantly more. Sales were up 5% in our industrial business, largely with our Bourgault acquisition, as well as market share growth in key markets, well offsetting significant market declines in both the ag and access markets. Sales were down 6% to prior year in the mobility segment, our markets significantly down in both Europe and North America. North America was down, three point six percent, Europe down 7%, both important markets for us. Normalized net earnings were CAD 111.8 million, or 4.7% of sales, a little down from last year on those lower sales. EPS, therefore, 1.82, down 8% over a year ago.
I would summarize our overall bottom line results this quarter as being most impacted by several things. First, of course, the 2023 and 2024 acquisitions, cost improvements in a whole variety of areas, launching business in the mobility segment, a steady sales and earnings performance at MacDon in a very tough market, offset by those steep declines in market mobility in Europe and North America and the global access market. Free cash flow is noted very strong. It was CAD 491 million for the quarter, an excellent increase over levels seen over the last couple of years, and we are actively reallocating capital from programs with less volume or restricted launches and trimming our capital bill as a result. You're really seeing the results of that in cash flow.
Now, I'd be remiss not to acknowledge the significant impairment we took in the quarter, almost all related to a write-down of goodwill in Europe. In the fourth quarter of each year, we are required to perform an annual impairment test of our goodwill. The overall market deterioration in Europe has unfortunately resulted in a discounted cash flow calculation that required us to write down the goodwill on some acquisitions made, in fact, many years ago. The impairment is non-cash, of course, doesn't impact us in any way. Our focus really now is on our immediate action plan to help our European operations offset these market declines and find new opportunities to grow the business, and Jim's gonna outline that for you shortly. The good news is we have strong teams. We've got a strong balance sheet behind us that is gonna enable us to do that.
There's a lot of distressed suppliers in Europe at the moment, in particular, and we are actively pursuing and winning takeover business from them to put into underutilized operations. As noted, our total takeover business wins now CAD 180 million. We're quoting another CAD 150 million of opportunities at the moment as well. And I'm confident those opportunities will only grow as, unfortunately, the situation in Europe takes a toll on some of our less financially stable competitors in the region. We also accounted in the quarter for a series of adjustments for various programs for the electrified vehicle market, certain other reduced volume or prematurely ending programs, which basically netted out to a small gain of CAD 2.4 million. This was related to a variety of positive and negative impacts from customer settlements, severance, and asset write-down.
Our results for the full year 2024 were outstanding. We saw sales of CAD 10.6 billion, up 8.7% over prior year, and outstanding double-digit growth of nearly 12% for both normalized net earnings and earnings per share, which reached CAD 604.4 million and 9.81 respectively. Margins hit 5.7%, up from prior year, and as noted earlier, cash flow nearly CAD 800 million. The remarkable thing is, these record results were achieved when markets in all three of our businesses were down, and in some cases, down in double digits. Market share growth and a dedication to continuous improvement, productivity, and cost reduction are the secret to that result.
Finally, the elephant in the room is the imposition this week of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the potential for additional tariffs on metals next week, and how that is impacting our business and our strategic thinking. So as all of you are, I'm sure, aware, on March fourth, President Trump imposed 25% tariff on all the products the U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico, two of its largest trading partners, and the ones the U.S. has, ironically, the most balanced trading relationship amongst their top ten trading partners. It's notable that the U.S. trade deficit with China, with E.U., with Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, all exceeds the trade deficit of Canada, with the U.S., some vastly, some by a factor of two to five times that deficit with, Canada. Nevertheless, tariffs were imposed, and potentially relieved only today.
In addition, we may see 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum on March twelfth. It's unclear if that will include processed steel and aluminum and what level of value add. These tariffs would be additive to the tariffs proposed this week. We are proceeding on the assumption that our finished and semi-finished metal-based products would not be subject to those duties. So more importantly, what's the impact? Let's start with our mobility business. The automotive industry is highly integrated across our three countries of Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. And our customers, the automakers, are the importers of record for substantially all of our parts, meaning our customers will have to pay the 25% tariff, not Linamar. The cost of these tariffs, notably, if steel and aluminum tariffs are layered on top, would be enormous.
The cost for our customers would be in the $ billions and is ultimately likely to shut the industry down, if not, if the waiver doesn't come through and stay put in place. As of today, customers are continuing to pull product made in our Canadian and Mexican plants per existing production orders. So we are waiting to see what happens next. For our industrial businesses, Skyjack, MacDon, Salford, Bourgault, we have been working for months to put inventory of product into the U.S. to allow us to sell customers, to sell to customers in the region tariff-free for a period of time. So for the time being, production in all of our businesses is continuing for our 2025 plan. Of course, we have an immediate action plan underway to deal with this situation. We're communicating with customers, with employees, with shareholders.
We're scenario planning on cost implications for impacted purchased products and identifying alternatives where possible. We're also identifying new products and markets to pivot to in order to continue to grow and to sell. We're developing tactical strategies to mitigate risks, such as, as noted, relocating some of that industrial segment inventory to the U.S. so that we could continue to deliver for a period of time. We're also staying focused on long-term fundamentals when making important strategic decisions and trying to look past the noise to focus on that long term. Equally important, I think, is what we're not doing. We are not contemplating closing facilities in tariff-affected countries and shifting production to the U.S. Tariffs, as we have seen play out literally in the last 24 hours, can be implemented one day and removed the next day. They are a short-term tactic.
We make important decisions, such as where to manufacture, based on long-term fundamentals, like availability of talent and bench strength and supply chain availability and cost in a region, not something as short term as a tariff. We continue to remain committed to our Canadian footprint, as our Canadian plants are our most productive globally, have our deepest bench of talent, enjoy strong cost and efficiency synergies, and are highly competitive on a global scale. In fact, as recently announced, we're in the midst of spending CAD 1 billion on our Canadian operations to launch work in these facilities and continue to quote a significant book of business for our plants in Canada. We are also investing and launching business in the U.S. We are also doing so in Mexico, in Europe, and in Asia, as we continue to focus on growing our global enterprise.
With that, I'm going to turn it over to our CEO, Jim Jarrell, to review industry and operations updates in a little more detail. Over to you.
Great. Thank you, Linda. As pointed out, we are currently operating with a very dynamic market backdrop. At Linamar, we remain laser focused on the things we can control and are driving our core objectives, as always, to, as you see here, grow our revenue, grow our profit, and grow our team. We know two things are true: that from uncertainty can come great opportunity, and tough times don't last, but tough teams do. The other way we've been describing it today, this could be a business person's nightmare, but an entrepreneur's dream. I think you know Linamar is a very entrepreneurial company that thrives in these times. So with that, let's move forward to provide some more commentary to each of our key markets and how Linamar is performing within them. Starting with the access or AWP market.
Globally, the overall industry was down nearly 12% for the year 2024. 2023 was a peak year for the global market, with a year-over-year comparison of 2024 ending off essentially flat in North America and up slightly in Europe. Asia Pacific and the rest of the world regions finished down nearly 30%, in line with where they consistently trended all throughout the year. Through this, Skyjack was able to fare better than the global market overall, with share gains in both scissors, telehandlers, and AWP overall for the year, which is fantastic to see. We maintain a healthy backlog of dollars and units, with daily order intake averaging where we have been during the last couple of quarters. Our customer base continues to grow, and an interesting fact, in North America alone, we are just shy of 300 customers in quarter four.
Looking at Skyjack's international business operations, market development continues to be a theme and focus area. In China, we've recently increased our development and testing resources to better allow us to offer tailored product offerings better suited to the local market. We have two new product launches planned for this region in 2025 alone. Across both Asia and Europe, we continued the rollout of our E-Drive scissors and electric booms to very positive market acceptance. Next, we'll turn to the agriculture industry volumes. Large ag, represented by combine and high horsepower tractor retail deliveries in our core market of North America, as well as Europe, finished the year down approximately 15%, in line with our previous expectations. On a global basis, full year 2024 industry volumes were down 17% from the 2023 market cycle peak.
Again, our three core brands of MacDon, Salford, and Bourgault stayed ahead of the market, ending the year ahead by 1%. Again, those are some great results when the global market was down 17%. Across the board, whether it's draper headers or windrowers, tillage equipment or air seeders, we've seen a steady trend upwards in the market share across all key product lines. For 2025 calendar, we are now adding industry guidance to our outlook. The North American market is expected to see another double-digit decline year-over-year, while other regional markets are expected to remain mostly flat. The continued North American industry decline in large ag is typical for a multi-year cycle, while inventories clear through the channels and commodity prices stabilize. The good news is that 2025 is being viewed as the trough of this cycle, with the growth returning next year.
Sentiment has improved, input costs and interest rates have stabilized. We'll continue to keep an eye on how these latest tariffs Linda talked about, impact the demand on both sides of the border. How Linamar's group of ag equipment companies can stand out in a difficult market is through its technology and innovation advantage. The brands of both MacDon and Salford recently were recognized with a combined total of five 2025 AE50 Outstanding Innovation Awards. MacDon was awarded honors for its FD261 FlexDraper header, its FC FlexCorn header, and the R1 Front Disc Header. Salford won for its AB640 Air Boom and its Row Crop Precision Cultivator. Short line OEM technology that delivers a productivity advantage wins in the ag market all the time. It's a key strategic focus across all of our brands, and we remain deeply committed to it.
For our core mobility segment, the industry finished mostly flat when compared to 2023. Global light vehicle production was down 1.1% in North America, more pronounced in Europe at nearly 4%, while largely flat in the rest of the world. Currently, industry experts forecast for calendar year 2025 is a decline of 2.2% in North America, a further 3% decline in Europe and Asia, and the rest of the world remaining mostly flat. For Linamar, content per vehicle on a global basis reached $84.11, up overall nearly 12% in an essentially flat market.
Again, similarly to the commentary from Q3, the growth in global market share compared to 2023 is driving mainly out of North America, where we saw higher volumes from launching programs as well as incremental sales for the 2023 Linamar Structures Group acquisition. We've spoke in the past on EV transition and underperforming programs, as EV adoption rates are not where the industry expected them to be at this point. To highlight this fact, we saw a change in global EV volumes in 2024, predicted to reach over 15 million light vehicles this year, but actually ended up 13.22 million less than expected. The projection for the year 2031 from that same forecast compared to the current date projections, sees penetration at 10.3 million less than originally predicted.
This means EV launch programs are seeing either delays, a slow ramp, or outright cancellation. The industry faces this EV challenge as well as several economic verticals, particularly in Europe, where they've seen decreased OEM volumes, distress in the supply base, and a need for more permanent restructuring. Linda highlighted some impairments we had in the quarter related to both these topics. Certainly from our side, we have a heightened focus on our operations in Europe. We have fast-tracked our cost-cutting lean and commercial playbook to align with the latest realities in the market. The uncertainty highlights how our ability to remain flexible as pivots can be an advantage in an unstable market. We can adapt better than the others, while our OEM customers chart what they now call a multi-energy or dual track propulsion strategy. For Linamar, we can turn these macro headwinds into opportunities.
The most obviously is that ICE programs are extending out and will run over a much longer time horizon. We also see opportunity to pick up takeover work from distressed suppliers. This is essentially the case in Europe. Between 2024 and the first two months of 2025, we've already booked nearly CAD 180 million of business and believe that there's a huge amount of potential there as well. Flexibility, strong financial balance sheet, and our track record of execution positions us very well to capitalize on these opportunities. Lastly, I'll point out to a fantastic mobility innovation from our driveline R&D team at McLaren Engineering. Our driveline disconnect technology is industry-leading and now will be included in a third North American OEM application.
The design solution is able to disconnect from the drivetrain of the vehicle and optimize vehicle range by reducing parasitic losses when only two-wheel drive mode is needed. Our first disconnect technology is in production in North America, and we have a second OEM program launching within the next 12 months. With this third major new business win that we obtained in the fourth quarter, we add another CAD 100 million to our launch backlog. A great example of how Linamar innovation can win in the market. With that, I'll turn it over to Dale.
Thank you, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone. Linda has already covered at a high level the excellent normalized financial performance in the quarter, so I'll jump directly into the business segment review, starting with the industrial segment. Industrial sales increased by 4.9%, or CAD 29.7 million to CAD 637.1 million in Q4. The sales increase for the quarter was due to the additional sales from the Bourgault acquisition and market share growth in Draper's seeding and tillage products, which offset the agricultural market decline and the lower demand for access equipment. Normalized industrial operating earnings in the fourth quarter decreased by CAD 9.1 million, or 9.1% from last year to CAD 91.4 million. The primary drivers impacting earnings were the lower market demand for access equipment, partially offset by the increased contribution from the Bourgault acquisition.
Turning to mobility, sales decreased by CAD 107.9 million, or 5.8% over Q4 last year to CAD 1.7 billion. The sales decrease was driven by the significant market declines in Europe and North America, lower volumes in certain mature programs, and non-recurring cost recoveries from 2023. These were partially offset by additional sales from our 2023 Linamar Structures acquisitions, increasing volumes and launching programs, and a favorable change in FX rates. Q4 normalized operating earnings for mobility were down 1.9% over last year or CAD 89.7 million. In the quarter, mobility earnings were impacted by the lower volumes on mature and ending programs, partially offset by cost reductions, operational efficiency, and increased contribution from our launching programs, as well as the 2023 structures acquisition.
Despite market declines, mobility margins expanded compared to the same period in 2023. Starting with our overall cash position, which came in at just over CAD 1 billion on December 31, an increase of CAD 401.3 million, sorry, compared to December 2023. The fourth quarter generated CAD 497.6 million in cash from operating activities, which was used primarily to fund the Q4 CapEx and debt repayments. Turning to leverage, net debt to EBITDA did increase from last year to 1.01x in the quarter, but down from the high of 1.24 after the acquisition of Bourgault.... We were able to achieve our goal of hitting 1x ahead of schedule due to our strong free cash flow generation in Q4.
If you normalize the EBITDA, the net debt to EBITDA further reduces the leverage from 1x to 0.79x. The amount of available credit on our credit facilities was CAD 791.2 million at the end of the quarter. Our available liquidity at the end of Q4 remains strong and increased to CAD 1.8 billion. As a result, we currently believe we have sufficient liquidity to satisfy our financial obligations during 2025. I thought it would be appropriate to give a quick update on the status of our NCIB program that was launched and announced in our Q3 earnings call. The 12-month program allows Linamar to purchase and cancel up to 4 million shares. We have been very active on the NCIB since we started purchasing.
In Q4, we purchased 700,000 shares, and we have continued buying during the Q4 blackout period under an automated process. As a result, in Q1 2025, we've purchased approximately another 700,000 shares. Therefore, our program to date, we have just purchased just over 1.4 million shares, and this equates to over CAD 80 million being returned to the shareholder. This is aligned to our capital structure of optimizing our balance sheet, especially in these turbulent times, focusing on growing the business and returning any excess cash to the shareholder. I'll start off by saying the current outlook does not yet reflect the U.S. tariffs that went into effect yesterday. Linda's already discussed the tariffs, so I'll move on to our current outlook.
Looking towards the next quarter, industrial segments will see both sales and OE decline when compared to Q1 2024. The sales decline, the sales are declining on down markets expected in both ag and access, which are more than offsetting the added sales from our extra month of our acquisition of Bourgault in Q1 of this year versus last year. OE is down as a result of the decremental impact on the change of sales, in addition to a product mix, which is currently predicted to be unfavorable in Q1. Mobility segment will also see a sales decline, but we'll see modest growth in OE. The sales decline is being driven by the expected market declines in Europe and North America, as both markets are expected to be down 2% or 3%.
The OE will continue to improve on operational improvements and from added contribution from launching programs. As a result, the expectation on a consolidated basis for Q1 is to have a decline in sales while maintaining flat net earnings. Even with the reductions in the markets, free cash flow generation is expected to be strong in the first quarter. Turning to full year 2025, industrial will see double-digit market declines in ag and high single-digit declines in North America for access equipment, which will result in an overall net decline in sales for the year. The sales decline and the expected product mix of these sales will result in a double-digit decline in OE over 2024. Despite the OE levels, margins will still be in our normal range for this segment of 14%-18%.
For mobility, industry forecasters are predicting continued market softness in 2025. Notwithstanding the market softness, sales will remain at the 2024 levels and OEM will grow at a double-digit rate. We still see launching programs maintaining our Q3 outlook by adding between CAD 500 million and CAD 700 million in sales to help mitigate the market declines. As a result, we are expecting to see margin expansion, which will push the mobility back into its normal range of 7%-10%. Overall, for 2025, sales will be flat, EPS will grow, free cash flow will remain strong, which will ensure that our balance sheet also remains strong. Thank you, and now I'd like to open up for questions.
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the 1 on your touchtone phone. Should you wish to cancel your request, please press the star followed by the 2. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Once again, the star 1 should you wish to ask a question. Your first question is from Tammy Chen from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for the questions. I think I'll just largely focus on the tariff aspect. I've got a couple of specific questions. So yes, we've seen the most latest development is this one-month reprieve for the Detroit Three. I'm curious, what you believe these OEMs would do between now and until, I guess, a month from now. Do you believe they'll, for certain programs, try to shift that production to the U.S.? Do you think they'll discuss with the Trump administration, you know, multi-year investment plans in the U.S.? Like, what do you think the OEMs are gonna do between now and early April?
Yeah, I mean, I think that, the key thing to understand about the automotive industry and the parts that are being purchased within it, is that most parts, certainly all of ours, are-
... engineered products that require months of testing and validation before they can be assembled into a vehicle. So there's zero chance that in 30 days, you know, customers are gonna be able to shift production, you know, outside of Canada and Mexico for parts. I mean, this is these programs typically take, you know, 12-18 months to invest in and tool up. So it's not in any way realistic to think that that can happen in that timeframe. Not to mention that the complexity and the degree of integration in the supply chain is so significant that the requirements for investment and testing and validation would be $ multi-billions and months, actually years, of time to do so. You know, that's clearly not the goal.
So, you know, I think that, you know, trying to help the administration understand that, that level of, of integration and how efficient it has made the industry, I think would be top of my list of trying to, you know, work over the next, 30 days. I mean, we've had free trade in the automotive industry between Canada and the U.S. since 1965. Like, we have developed incredible efficiencies in terms of we're gonna make this, you're gonna make that, we'll come together to, you know, maximize volumes, minimize costs, maximize technologies and innovation, and really get the best out of the supply base. So, you know, trying to dismantle that, like, in 30 days sure isn't gonna happen. You can't even dismantle it over multiple years.
So, you know, I, I would hope that the OEMs would instead try and paint a picture of where, you know, opportunities from enhancing collaboration within the continent could lie, so that we can all grow jobs together and tackle a huge global market that is 80% of the world's vehicle production. Only 20% of it is in North America. Let's get defocused on, you know, how do we, you know, rip that apart? And let's focus a little more on the global market. So I'm hoping it'll be spent trying to gather information, show the impact, illustrate the, you know, the unreasonableness of trying to totally recreate a supply chain that is working really quite smoothly.
Yeah, Tammy, just in the mobility, you know, we've been in, you know, constant communication with our customers, as Linda stated, as one of our issues we're doing. But, you know, nobody's talking about moving things at this point in time. I mean, the first immediate thing that they're doing is understanding what this 30-day reprieve, you know, you know, is defined as. So they're working that through right now. But I can tell you what they're doing is working with us as each supplier, as understanding the implications of suppliers, and then they're lobbying. I mean, they basically, in all of the OEMs, have a daily call now, and they have the information being gathered. And as Linda said, they go back and are lobbying and communicating to the government.
And nobody's even looking at tactics in regards to, you know, transfer price issues and all that. Nobody's even, you know, going down that path. They're just, I think, collecting information and believing, you know, and strongly believe that, the sentiment is that we should have this integrated setup with the current trade going on. So that's sort of like the latest and greatest from our customers directly.
Got it. That's helpful. And my other question is, so on the industrial side, and again, I'm kind of sticking with this whole tariff dynamic, as you mentioned, your U.S. plants have some inventory built up. I'm wondering if you could talk about how long this inventory could last for you? And you know, with the 25% tariffs on that part of the business, I'm wondering if your products, whether it's on the Skyjack side or in ag, like, could it still be competitive? Because a lot of it's coming from the Canadian manufacturing facility, even with those tariffs, and like, would you absorb the cost in order to still make the sales once your current inventory build-up runs out? Thank you.
Yeah. Okay. So we did, as Linda stated, we transferred, you know, when this all came out last year, transferred quite a bit of inventories across border. Like, we are, you know, 6-10 weeks of coverage, right? So we've done a really good job, you know, covering that off. And of course, one of the key things we've been talking about is we cannot, we cannot lose market share. I mean, you know, because if you lose that, it's a real, real problem. So there is some tools, you know, that we can work with some of our customers on. Obviously, purchase costs. There is, you know, obviously, some transfer analysis that we're doing, first sale tools and techniques that are out there as well.
But again, we're hopeful that this will fall under, you know, a non-tariff issue. But again, we are contemplating that. But certainly we are going to, you know, keep our sales going. We're producing at our 2025 plan rate. We continue to do that and continue to, you know, take in order takes like we have for the last couple of quarters.
And I would just add to that, that all of our industrial businesses also have strong markets in Canada, particularly the agricultural businesses. And growing markets internationally, including Europe, South America, Australia, where we've been really growing our market share and growing our production deliveries over the past several years. We, of course, are gonna continue to produce and ship to those markets. And I would also lastly say that here within Canada, we're going to be pushing hard for increased market share for each of our industrial businesses, and trying to lever off the Buy Canadian aspect. I mean, I would highly encourage everyone on the call to encourage their own municipalities and provinces, and for that matter, building owners, to invest in Skyjack products for their aerial work platform requirements, as opposed to the American competitors.
That way, we can increase our sales to Canada and offset any potential softness in the US.
Yeah, and sorry, Jamie. You saw on the slide I put up. It's the innovation point, right? So you know, we get these awards, and the reason we have, you know, these sales of these products is because they're more productive, they're more efficient, and farmers or contractors want to use them because they have value. So, you know, they're not going to want to walk away from our products as well. Of course, the cost is the cost, and we need to deal with it, but, you know, our products sell because it's value.
I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question is from Krista Friesen, from CIBC. Your line is now open.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just as you think about the capacity that you have in the U.S., would you have the ability to shift some of your production to your U.S. manufacturing facilities? Is that at all a possibility?
That would be an enormous investment to do, and it's just, as I suggested in my comments, something that just does not make sense. I mean, I literally had to change my conference call notes three times in the last 24 hours because of changes on tariffs. That is not a premise to build a manufacturing strategy around. I mean, you're not gonna spend $ billions and months and months to shift production around, and chase a tariff that's here today, gone tomorrow, back the next day. You must focus on long term.
Yeah.
You can't get sucked into the noise of what's going on and make key decisions like that.
Yeah. Just a good, a good example is one camshaft to run 2,000 a day, takes about 18 months to tool up in the U.S. and basically cost, what? $20-25 million. So... And we've got, like, you know, hundreds of parts, and Magna's got hundreds of parts, and Martinrea has hundreds of parts. So it's just not, it's not plausible, to, to even consider that, right? I mean, new work, I mean, down the road, yes, of course, you can, you can do that, in a launch. But anything to just, you know, try and do that, you're, you're 2-3 years out, and it just isn't, feasible.
And I would just say as well, that decisions—like, even new work, decisions on where a job is gonna be launched—is based on what plant has capacity, who's got open floor space, who's got capability and experience around a part that, you know, those are the levers that you use. You know, it's how we've done it historically, and it's how we'll continue to do it in the future. And just to be clear, we are investing heavily in our U.S. plants as well. I mean, we've actually increased our U.S. footprint. Look at our sales in the U.S. and our mobility business. They've increased something like six times over the last 10 years. We've tripled our employee footprint in the region. We've got business launching in each of our facilities there as well.
Like, you know, we are absolutely gonna grow in the U.S., but we're gonna continue to grow in Canada and keep our facilities full here as well.
Thanks, I appreciate that example. And then maybe just on the European market, obviously some weakness in Q4. Sounds like that's related to some EV platforms. As we think about 2025, should we think of kind of a similar spread there between Linamar's European auto sales and what the market's doing, or are you able to make up some ground there? Thank you.
I think we're staying with the market. I think what we did in you know, the last couple of quarters is really focus in on Europe to look at the operational side of the realities, right? I mean, the market, you know, I think it used to be like 23 million a year, and it's down to like 17-18. Don't quote me on those numbers exactly, but that's, those aren't coming back. So to really rightsize Europe is what our focus is on, and then also on the opportunistic side, those distressed opportunities, like, it's abundant. I mean, we have incoming daily requests to take over work, to take over facilities, to do this. Europe is in a real you know, tough situation, but we're levering off that right now to grow.
I think that it's an important point as well, that Jim and I both talked about is the distress in the supply base and the great opportunities for takeover work. You know, there's a lot of suppliers that are just not gonna make it out there, given the situation in Europe, and given our strong financial position and technical capabilities, we can step in, and our customers are actively asking us to do so.
Thank you.
Thank you. Once again, please press star one should you wish to ask your question. Your next question is from Jonathan Goldman from Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Hi, good evening, and thanks for taking my questions. I noticed you revised the mobility outlook for 2025, with sale, sales now expected to be flat versus modest growth previously, but you're still expecting strong double-digit operating growth, earnings growth. So how do I reconcile those two comments, given it looks like volumes in each region are gonna be weaker than expected in the last quarter? Or maybe asked a different way, given you're expecting flat sales growth, what are the main drivers of margin expansion?
But I'd say, we're getting launched a business in place, operational focus on cost, and, cash, I think, is also in the commercial negotiations that we've been, ongoing, doing, right? And so I think those three things, you know, add up, to, you know, being able to, provide a better margin with the same level of sales.
Yeah, I think that's absolutely the key is commercial agreements getting resolved, continued excellent cost improvements across the board, and also the impact of that, some of those right-sizing initiatives that we did largely in Europe last year that are gonna start to hit the bottom line this year as well.
Okay, that makes sense. On the commercial, recoveries or discussions, like what sort of level of visibility do you have on that?
We have very good visibility of all the things that we're working on with all the customers, right? And they're related to, you know, cost, they're weight related to volume issues, you know, changes in that. I mean, the appetite at the mobility OEM level right now to entertain has changed probably dramatically in the last couple of years. But if you have a warranted and fact-based situation, they will sit down and you'll work through it. I mean, quite frankly, as you get volumes back to normal, you know, they're expecting productivities. And I think Linamar is one of our focuses on productivities, elimination of waste, and we do that very well. And in situations where the volumes are there, we can offer those productivities to customers.
Very interesting. Then maybe if I can squeeze one more in. The CAD 60 million proceeds on disposal, is that just normal course, or does that relate to something specific in the quarter? And are you considering any other sources of divestitures, whether that's subsidiaries or real estate in 2025?
Yeah, it's related to our small gain that Linda talked about. So there's a number of factors that go into that, from customer negotiations, to inventory provisions, to some fixed asset adjustments, and all of those are what net out to that CAD 2.4 million gain Linda was talking about earlier.
I'm sorry, like the CAD 60 million proceeds, I think, on the cash flow statement on disposal?
Yes, that's related to the commercial settlements and the unusual items we took in the quarter.
Yeah. So there, there was a whole series of positives and negatives that netted out to the 2.4. You, you've identified one of them.
Okay, makes sense. Thanks for taking my questions.
My pleasure.
Thank you. Your next question is from Michael Glen, from Raymond James. Your line is open.
Hey, just to start on the takeover work that you're pursuing. So you're referencing distressed suppliers. Are you taking advantage of this situation at all to embed some better margins, or is this largely bid in line with your historical hurdle rates?
I mean, obviously, we would want to get as much margin as we can, but again, if you're taking over something and you're working with your customers to do that, I mean, you have to be fair, and you have to be market driven. So, of course, we would push for as high margin as we can get. But certainly, to assist the customer would be the first and foremost, and then you work the job and make it productive. So, I would say really we would try and be in our normal range of mobility earnings in that, in that scenario.
Yeah, I think it just feels like you're a strong supplier with a strong balance sheet. Your customers need you. It's just surprising that you're not able to... And this is coming from a distressed supplier. It's just surprising to hear that you're not able to extract something better to make sure that you're healthy with that piece of business.
Yeah, I mean, you got to keep in mind where the distressed supplier situation is. So they're getting $0.50, where they probably should get $1. And so if we go in at $1, I mean, the customer is still paying $0.50 more. So, you know, and if we can get a good margin off that, I mean, that's, that's what we're trying to do.
Yeah. So I mean, clearly we're not taking the work over at existing prices.
Yeah.
I mean, we're quoting it at what it should be, what it should be sold for. Oftentimes, these distressed suppliers have taken on pricing that is not, not realistic for the program.
Also, in the past, right, you, you've a lot of PE driven, so they get this business and then they won't go and build the public business. And so their revenue base is the gate, and then they want to spin it off down the road. So, you know, everybody's getting flat-footed with volumes and, you know, debt levels and things like that. So as Linda stated, in my example, you know, the $0.50 is way underwater already, so the customers are now going to pay $1, which is the market price for that, that job. So we're, we're, we're pricing to market and to what we can get. And Michael, keep in mind too, that, you know, some of our, these customers have the capability and equipment and manpower to bring this product in-house, so it ends up being a make versus buy.
Obviously, it's not an opportunity for us to go in there and gouge.
Okay. And just on the industrial business, can you just, it's not particularly clear to me how the steel and aluminum tariffs are going to impact that business. Can you just run through how we should think about that impacting if, if they go into place?
Yeah, I mean, for our industrial operations, we're importing very little steel or aluminum into U.S. operations. On the supply side, the majority of our suppliers have to list the steel and aluminum that is going into their products are being purchased in the U.S. We don't see any impact from a supplier price increase in that regard. And in the event we do have a supplier that, you know, has not surfaced that is an issue, we're gonna have to obviously deal with it on a case-by-case basis on the steel and aluminum side. So overall, we don't expect a direct material impact from the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs next week, if they do in fact happen.
For the industrial business, I know you don't disclose this, but it would be helpful. Are you able to indicate to us what portion of the industrial business as a whole, or give some information as to what percentage of sales go from sales into the U.S. from Canada?
I mean, we don't normally disclose that level of information, and frankly, it varies from business to business. I mean, some of our businesses would sell quite heavily in Canada, and others are selling more into the US, so it really depends business by business.
For the agriculture, is it safe to assume that the agriculture skews more to Canada than Skyjack would?
Yes.
Yes.
Okay, but you, you're not able to give any granularity as to what that might look like?
That's right.
Okay. Okay, thank you for taking the questions.
My pleasure.
Thank you once again. But I still want, should you wish to ask your question. Your next question is from Brian Morrison from TD Securities. Your line is open.
Thanks very much. Linda, I couldn't agree more with you with respect to your tariff, tariff commentary, but I guess in terms of the end game for the administration, for the auto industry, I'm not sure it's a fair question, but you've been in the Oval Office with this man. It seems impractical to implement tariffs without injuring the domestic and OEMs because of how highly integrated they are. What do you think the end game is here with respect to tariffs in the auto industry?
I mean, it's difficult to say, Brian. I mean, I guess, you know, is there an end game in the auto industry? Is it about, you know, seeing more vehicle production, for instance, in the U.S.? Or is this, you know, just part of a strategy, a tactic around other areas that the U.S. administration would like addressed when it comes to USMCA? So there's clearly areas they're not happy with that they want addressed, and, you know, I think it's up to us to try and surface what those are. They may not even be in the automotive industry, frankly. They could be in completely different areas.
So, you know, I think we need to understand that and, you know, understand, as you correctly say, what's the end game, and try and figure out a solution to that. Because the sooner that we can all get aligned on a trade agreement on the continent that everybody's happy with and feels like is fair, to all parties, the better, because then we take away this whole cloud of uncertainty that isn't good for Americans, it isn't good for Canadians, and it isn't good for Mexicans, and we can, you know, go forward together. You know, I think that President Trump wants fairer trade. That's—I mean, he's said that, and he's said that over and over again, right? Like, he doesn't want to be treated unfairly, so let's understand what those things are and fix them.
And then I think we may have an opportunity to go, go forward. That's... And again, that may not necessarily be in the automotive industry, because I frankly think that, you know, that is, a very well and very fairly, traded area. I feel like it's probably more in other areas, so let's surface those and fix those.
Yeah. So in your shareholder letter, you identified that we already have fair trade. So I guess with all this uncertainty that's out there, and maybe it doesn't even have to do with the auto industry, I agree.... How do you allocate long-term capital with such great uncertainty, especially outside of the U.S.?
Yeah, I mean, I guess we have to look at our global business. The U.S. is only one part of our, our global business. We have some pretty exciting, thriving markets, elsewhere as well. We need to, again, I just come back to what I talked about in my, my more formal comments, that we need to think about long-term fundamentals of where it makes sense to be manufacturing. Where do we have the talent? Where do we have the best strengths? Where do we have supply chain? Where do we have the costs? What are the costs in the different regions? And make, make decisions, accordingly.
You just, you can't chase something as short term as a tariff, as a tactic like a tariff to dictate how you're going to organize your company in the long term. It just, it doesn't make sense.
You know, a good example, Brian, going forward is, you know, every program that we get from an OEM, we have to go through a tech review, we have to go through a location review. We have to, you know, do that on each new business, and as Linda stated, so if it was a camshaft, you know, a great place to do it would be at Camcor in Canada. They've got the expertise. They're the most efficient. So we would put that forward. You know, at this time frame, you're going to sit with your customer, and we all know the realities of tariffs in and out, and the whipsaw that we're going through every day right now. So we would make a decision with our customer. This is what we're doing. This is our proposal at Linamar.
This is best suited where this job should be, and we would make that agreement. So eyes wide open right now with, with our customers on any of these, on any of these.
Thanks, Jim. I have two, maybe housekeeping questions, if I can. In your industrial segment in Q4, you did forecast for the decline, but you actually ended up being up about 5% year-over-year. Was there any pull forward in that market due to tariffs outside of your warehousing of 6-9 weeks?
I don't think anything on tariffs. There was end-of-year increases from some of the customers that we received, so it was, it was not tariff related, though.
But it was definitely better than we thought it was gonna be.
Okay, and then the last one, I appreciate your margin expansion commentary with respect to the mobility segment. You did mention commercial settlements, and you have good visibility into that. Of the, say, 130 basis points that you forecast for margin improvement for 2025, what timeframe do these settlements cover? And can you quantify either dollar or even basis points of the 130, what that would, what that would make up?
Yeah, I mean, we wouldn't disclose that level of detail, Brian. I mean, it's the improvement on the margin side is absolutely a combination of price increases negotiated with customers, of continuous improvement initiatives and price decreases negotiated with suppliers or, you know, new suppliers that we put in place, efficiencies that we've driven through operations, and, you know, continue to do every single day. So we wouldn't typically break that up. I can tell you it's a combination of all of the above, as well as noted as some of the right sizing that we did, largely in Europe last year.
The time frame is right through the year, right? Like, I mean, it's, there's not one pinpoint in time frame. These are, these are all things that drive up our operational plans through the year.
Right. I'm just trying to understand, are they in perpetuity or are they on a going-forward basis? Will they be sustainable or is it just a 2025 one-off positive?
No, I think when you make a commercial arrangement, it is for the future, right? Like, we don't just do a one-off unless it's like, if it's a cancellation or something like that, obviously you do a one-off cancellation claim, you know, on things. But, you know, typically if you get a price increase, it's for, you know, for the future.
Okay. Well, I appreciate your candid commitment, and I wish you good luck.
Thanks, Brian.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would now hand the call back to Linda for the closing remarks.
Great, thank you so much. I'm gonna leave you with some key messages, as normal. I also want to remind you that, as requested on the call, you guys are all part of helping us to sell more Skyjack in Canada. I want you all to get out there and help us get that done, okay? There's a lot of competitors selling products here in Canada. You guys can help make a difference, all right? You're all on our team too. Key messages for the quarter. We had another excellent quarter in free cash flow, CAD 800 million. I know I've said it a few times, so pretty proud of that. Second, we delivered another year of double-digit growth. That's 10 years out of the last 15, when all 3 of our markets are down.
We had an amazing quarter in new business wins. Launch Book rocketed back up to CAD 3.5 million. Lots of takeover work in the pipeline, which is awesome. And finally, we're keeping going with that NCIB, so getting cash back to shareholders as promised. So thanks very much, everybody. Have a great evening and go sell some Skyjack!
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now ended. Thank you all for joining. You may all disconnect your lines.