Hello everyone, my name is Sharon, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Africa Oil Corp Q2 2024 Results Management Presentation. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there'll be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star one and one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please note that any time participants on the webcast can submit questions using the Q&A box on the webcast interface. Please note that this event is being recorded. The recording will be available for playback on the company's website. I would now like to pass the meeting to Mr. Shahin Amini, Africa Oil's Investor Relations Manager.
Please go ahead, Mr. Amini.
Thank you, operator. On behalf of management, I thank you for joining us today for our second quarter 2024 results presentation. On the call today, we have President and CEO, Roger Tucker, our CFO, Pascal Nicodeme, and our Chief Commercial Officer, Oliver Quinn. There will be a presentation for around 20 minutes before we go into the Q&A session. But first, I would like to remind everyone that remarks made during this session are subject to forward-looking statements, which involve significant risk factors and assumptions, and these have been fully described in the company's continuous disclosure reports. The information discussed is made as of today's date and time, and Africa Oil assumes no obligation to update or revise this information to reflect new events or circumstances, except as required by law. The company's complete financial statements and related MD&A are available on our website and on SEDAR.
I will now pass you over to Pascal for the highlights of the second quarter. And Pascal, over to you. Go ahead, please.
Thank you, Shahin. Can you please move to the next slide? I will present the financial statements for the second quarter of 2024 and the first half 2024. First, I would like to start this presentation by showing how we've used our resources and how we've maintained the strength of our balance sheet in the first half of this year. We started the year with $232 million of cash on the balance sheet. We are ending the second quarter with $185 million, and the main use of this cash for the first half of the year has been the return to the shareholders to a magnitude of about $51 million, both in dividend and share buyback.
I will come back onto that. Minimal exploration expenditures, mainly on Egina, about $6 million, and the negative $11 million that you can see on this chart, the fourth bar named as operating activities, is mainly G&A actually. And you will see in this $11 million that a significant portion of this eleven, about $5 million is one-off cost in relation to the signing of the amalgamation agreement with BTG. We've received another dividend from Prime, the first of the year, $25 million net to Africa Oil in April, which is the only source of cash that we received this first half.
Which explains our end of quarter cash balance of $485 million. So if we aggregate this cash balance with Prime's net debt of at the moment of $222 million, it means that we have a combined net debt of $36 million. Which once we have completed the deal with Prime, is what you will see actually on the balance sheet, as we are going to consolidate 100% of Prime going forward after the completion of the transaction with BTG. Next slide, please. Thanks, Shahin. So yeah, in terms of buyback and dividends, I think it has been the main use of our cash in the first half.
We want to continue to manage the company and the balance sheet and continue to return some of these positive resources to our shareholders. So in the first half, we've basically bought back some shares for an amount of $39 million, plus $11 million of first half dividend paid in March. And so in total, since we have started the dividend return program in March 2022, we've returned a total of $143 million to our shareholders. And the board has also decided to reconduct the existing semi-annual dividend, so we are going to pay another $0.025 per share to our shareholders end of September. Next slide please, Shahin. Thank you.
So yeah, a few financial highlights for the quarter and the previous quarters. So Prime's performance has remained very solid with an EBITDA for the quarter of $92 million and free cash flow of $77 million. So very stable, very stable performance. Looking on the left side of this slide, you will see the Africa Oil net income, and which have been impacted by several exceptional items. And this quarter, again, we had a few exceptional items. The first one has been, we've picked up our share of loss of Africa Energy following the withdrawal of Total and CNR from the Block 11B/12B in South Africa.
We've basically accounted for our share of that loss, that impairment into our net income, so that accounts for an additional loss of about $7 million. And also, worth mentioning that our share of net profit from Prime this quarter has been slightly down at $17 million, which has been impacted by a negative overlift balance of about $12 million net to us. So which explains why our net income for the quarter just breaks even. Next slide, please. Thank you.
So coming back to our oil sales, I've explained in the past how we market our oil now, and I think this quarter has still been the evidence that we manage now to sell our oil in Nigeria consistently above Dated Brent. In Q2 has been the case again, where we sold on average our barrels at $89 per barrel, while Dated Brent has been $85. So we sold 3 cargoes. Prime has sold 3 cargoes, so 1.5 cargo net to us.
Going forward, 2 cargoes have actually hit their trigger price in September and October, with an average price of $79 per barrel, which also evidences that the marketing strategy that we have now is efficient. And when the oil price goes down, we manage to secure a flow for all cargoes. So that's also a very good news. Next slide, please. Thank you, Shahin. So yeah, just a few words on our production performance this quarter.
You will have noticed that our production is slightly down, and the average production for one has been down at 16,700 working interest, and 19,300 for the first half on average on an entitlement basis. This is mainly due to a planned one-month shutdown of Egina, which has now restarted and actually restarted above expectations. This drop that you have seen in Q2 is just, [audio distortion] . As of the events of August, which show [audio distortion] for the first half.
Therefore, we've maintained our existing production guidance, and we are confident that we will to improve in the nine months and full year period for 2024. I will now hand over to Roger.
Thank you very much, Pascal, and thank you, all very much for joining this webcast. What I'm trying to do with this slide is just to demonstrate to you that we've been extremely active in pursuing a strategy of trying to consolidate and concentrate our efforts in particular assets. At a gross level, the value of the transactions that we've done in the last six months exceeds well over $1 billion of value. Every single one of them was designed to get us into the position that we could then do the big consolidation, which was the Prime consolidation with BTG.
So we've negotiated the farm down and full carry in, in Venus with, with Total. We've done the Block 3B/4B farm down with a carried exploration with Total, and managed to maintain a significant equity position in, in that. And we've, as I mentioned, now in the process of attempting to consolidate via an amalgamation agreement, the Nigerian producing assets. And the whole process of this has been designed to really simplify, simplify the way that the company is valued at the end of the day.
However, as it points out at the bottom, we have managed to maintain at zero cost to us very significant drilling catalysts on the Venus Block 2913B and Block 3B/4B in the Orange Basin, where we are targeting multi-billion barrel growth prospects by the end of 2025. And those are, if you like, trips to the casino, where we're going to be fully covered on the chips, and they're very, very significant drilling targets are preserved in the portfolio, but still carried. Next slide, please. And over to you, Oliver, to take us through that, and I'll come back later.
Yeah. Thanks, Roger. So what we wanted to do here was just show you really how do we think about value proposition in the company?
... on the back of the transactions that Roger's talked about. And secondly, then, you know, what is the shape of the business kind of going forward long term? Because I think, you know, on the back of the transactions, we have a much better visibility on that than in prior years. So look, in terms of value, look, ultimately, we see a very compelling value proposition for the company today. If you see on the chart on the slide here, we carry a very disciplined core NAV, a view of core NAV. So, you know, we have Nigeria flowing barrels production, we have cash, and we take off, you know, kind of G&A corporate adjustments the next few years.
We see that again, this is a view of core NAV at just under $800 million. That's versus, of course, a market cap today of about $700 million and no debt at the AOC level. So compelling on that tight discipline of core NAV. We then move to say, well, look, the other big components of the business, obviously, our holding in Impact Namibia. And of course, we put a public valuation out on that in March, when we made an offer to some minority shareholders, and that's what you see reflected here. Of course, the project's matured since then, and you know, we obviously think it's worth more than that because we were a buyer at that price. But again, disciplined view of value on it here.
And then the second component really is the carry that Roger talked about, South Africa's 3B/4B. And here we're showing the capital value of the carry. We're not showing a kind of, you know, risk exploration view. It's simply a disciplined outline of how much value we'll receive in that carry in spend. So again, a tangible NAV, which we think is very disciplined, $1.1 billion. And again, trading today at $700 million, about a 36% discount to that. So again, significant discount. And fundamentally, you know, from our view, no real value in the share price and significant value for that at Orange Basin position.
Particularly given, again, as Roger outlined, you know, we anticipate a series of carried activities, potentially in the next 12-18 months to test more barrels. The potential, as stated by the operator, plans decision on an FID for Venus. So lots of things coming down the line that are not in these numbers. So, overall compelling value proposition. I think if you put in the, the closed pro forma, Prime Nigeria consolidation, you can see, of course, in here that our, our pro forma NAV jumps up with a, with a doubling of Nigeria to just under about $1.8 billion. So a significant step up. Maybe go to the next slide, Shahin.
So in the next slide here, what we wanted to do again was show you something of the benefits of the pro forma Prime Nigeria consolidation. As Pascal mentioned, once the deal completes, we'll consolidate 100% of those assets. And so actually what we're able to do is kind of look at the forward shape of the business in a much more regular way than we've been able to. And so what you're seeing on this plot here is our view of our best anticipated view, if you like, over the next kind of 10 years. So very, very long term shape of the business. The headline is, it's of course a very strong cash generative business.
And while we have some decline in natural decline in Nigeria next few years, that is offset by the first oil from the Preowei tieback. That's a significant project that grosses potential for 65,000 barrels a day. You know, that's kind of 11,000 barrels to the A of C pro forma. And then that's complemented by, you know, the potential for first oil in Venus in 2029, and then that's followed by, you know, potential further Venus or other Orange Basin in development phases. So, you know, I think for a company like ours, it's a very strong long-term profile. You know, what you see in terms of the cash generation that's critical here as well on the lower two plots, is that we have a very, you know, relatively consistent, generation of operating cash flow in this model.
So somewhere, you know, plus or minus $400 million over this long-term period. And of course, that's generating a lot of free cash for the business because we've done the transactions to take the majority of CapEx out of the system. We have some short-term, short cycle, Nigeria CapEx under $200 million a year, including the Preowei development through to 2028. You know, Namibia, Venus, no CapEx contribution to first oil. And then this first oil in, in Namibia, you know, if that comes on in 2029, then we will contribute to any, residual ongoing development there. But again, you know, the point to take here is that a very consistent and significant operating cash flow, very controlled and minimized CapEx, and so resulting in a significantly cash-liquid business.
Again, to take you back to what we announced, on the back of the Prime transaction, which is that we would put in place at completion a new dividend policy with a $100 million annual base. So again, you can see what these numbers demonstrate, the ability and strength of the business to deliver that dividend over a consistent period. So I'll hand back to you, Roger, at this point.
Thank you very much, Oliver. And I know that you've seen this slide before, but what I tried to walk you through is that we are executing and delivering the strategy that I put out probably, you know, 8, 10 months ago. That we are very, very focused on the key core assets that we that we hold, and they are genuinely world-class world-class assets. These are in deep water Nigeria, offshore Equatorial Guinea, Namibia, and the extension of that basin into into South Africa. We're associated uniquely, I think, only with Tier One operators, Chevron and TotalEnergies.
In Nigeria, where we are doubling our production and reserve base in assets that we know extremely well with the Prime transaction, that we're in 3 of the top 5 fields in Nigeria with a production profile way out into the 2040s, if those assets. In Venus, again, we're in an asset with a spectacular operator in a discovery, which has got the potential to add very significant reserves and production, and also has significant additional running room in it as a result of the new 3D seismic and drilling activity around the block, which I'm sure that you've seen by third parties, as that basin evolves.
Along with 3B, 4B, which we have just farmed out to Total, while retaining a 17% equity position in that block, we have a very material exploration opportunity that we hope will get drilled sometime in 2025. In Equatorial Guinea, we have actually just increased the size of the block slightly to the north, and we are still analyzing exactly what we've got now that we've increased that acreage a little bit, and we will be continuing with the farm out activity on what we consider to be an extremely attractive block.
So the question here is that we've delivered, we've focused the organization, and we've put ourselves in to a position with the Prime transaction to be a very material entity in this West Africa region. The next slide, please, Shahin. What do we become when the Prime transaction goes through? We think that we will be very differentiated, independent E&P investment case via the relationships with the majors, via the scale of the opportunities that we are in. We have a very clearly identified and enumerated to you a capital allocation program. The business is made up of very high net back production from the world-class offshore assets.
We've got funded organic growth opportunities in the exploration, carries and the development carry in Namibia. We have a robust balance sheet with a very low debt level and material liquidity headroom. And we have explained with the merger with, or the amalgamation with, Prime, that we're putting forward a very transparent and committed shareholder returns policy. We have demonstrated over the last 6-8 months, a little more, that we are returning significant amounts of money to our shareholders, as you saw on one of the earlier slides that Pascal showed. So this is something that we have done.
And so what we're trying to position ourselves to be is we're positioning to be the leading player in the consolidation of the independent E&P space while maintaining our key capital allocation metrics, if you like. And with that, I think that I will conclude and then open up to Q&A, which I'll be more than willing, with the team, to answer any questions that you have. So over to you, Shahin, to manage.
Thank you, Roger, and I'll hand it over to Sharon. Please see if there are any questions on the conference call facility.
Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please type it into the box and click Submit. We will now go to our first question. One moment, please. And your first question comes from the line of Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from SB1 M. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, guys, and thanks for taking my questions. I have four questions, actually. First one, on the capital allocation. I talked about both dividends and buybacks, and of course, carrying out both dividends and buybacks. Now, I just wonder, going forward, how do you think around the split between dividends and buybacks, and how sensitive would that split be to the share price? Second question, when do you expect the Prime deal to close? I think you said sometime during 2025 when you announced the deal. Is that still the case? Third question, what's the outlook for the interim dividends from Prime in second half this year? i.e., how much dividend do you expect to receive in second half?
My fourth and final question, that is on slide 11, on the pro forma outlook you showed. Could you just clarify the CapEx carry for Venus? How is that included on those, the CapEx indication there? Thanks.
... Thank you. So let's start with the fourth question first, which was slide 11. And on that note, let's go to Oliver, who can clarify the Venus CapEx.
Yeah. So, basically, what we modeled here is, of course, in the transaction with Total, all the CapEx is covered by Total. It's effectively an interest-free loan to Impact. And then when first oil from the block, anywhere on the block starts, then there's a mechanism whereby that loan is repaid. It is not the full operating cash, free cash, if you like, that Impact receives. It's a portion of it that repays the loan, which is why you see here in a net AOC perspective, that is operating cash flow from first oil. So that, I think that's important in the structure. In terms of, you know, this is a model. It's our best kind of view today, obviously, a few years in advance of the timing of first oil.
But this is envisages a, you know, kind of two FPSO phase development on, on Namibia. So of course, the first one is, is fully paid for, if you like, under the Total transaction, pre-2029, and then starts producing in 2029. And then we kind of see a second FPSO, potentially, I mean, again, it's just a model here, but potentially coming on, later in the decade. So what that means is that some of the early spend on that second phase, if it goes ahead, would be pre-2029, and therefore equally covered in the, in the Total, deal, if you like. So, you know, whatever is spent on, on the block pre-first oil is, is covered in that Total transactions, whether that's exploration, appraisal, development, any scale of development.
The inflection point is at first oil, and then Impact will start paying its respective share from its revenues in the block, et cetera.
Teodor, does that answer your question? Do you have a follow-up on that before we go to the next question?
Well, yeah, I think it boiled down to my question.
Okay. Well, actually, Oliver, if you could stay on and answer the second question that Teodor asked, which is: What is the expectation on the timeline to closing the Prime deal?
Yeah, it's a, it's a good question. I mean, again, as you, you said, Teodor, we, we guided in announcement of the deal at the end of June, that it would be Q2, Q3 2025 for completion. The, you know, the key steps for that are a shareholder vote, which we anticipate to not be a critical path. That should come much earlier. And then what is driving that critical path on timeline is government approval in Nigeria, which of course, in these any transaction in Nigeria is required and standard. I think it's fair to say that we are, you know, Africa Oil and Prime and BTG together, pushing very hard and working very hard with the Nigerian government.
We've got a series of engagements planned, so it's going well so far, but I think we stick with that guidance, but we give the assurance that of course, we are all moving as hard as we can to try and do it as early as possible, so frankly, we can move on with the pro forma business and all the other things we want to do.
Okay. Let's put the next two questions to Pascal. So Pascal, the other two questions asked is: What is the absolute con for Africa Oil to receive Prime dividends in the second half of this year?
Yeah, if we look at the budget, there is room for another dividend before the end of the year. So, magnitude is still to be discussed, and I'm sure as in the previous year, we will wait until December to size exactly the dividend. And, as you see, there is no shortage of cash on our balance sheet or on Prime's balance sheet. So, it's within Prime or to figure in terms of making differences, especially maybe the view of the continuation that we are still considering.
And I think I would say the last element I would like to mention is that, before completing the deal, the amalgamation with BTG, we probably do the diligence from Prime, to make sure that under the true up mechanism agreement, there is no cash payment between the parties. So, that's another element that we will have to take into account. So that, I think that addresses the question, number three.
Okay. And the other question was on capital allocation. Oliver, Roger, you may want to pitch in here as well, but that sort of dividends versus buybacks,
Well, I actually couldn't hear the first question. So, can you actually repeat exactly what it was, Shahin, so I answer it correctly?
The question was, in terms of capital allocation, what is the sensitivities around dividends versus buybacks? Two as well, but, I obviously, this question obviously is to also consider the outlook for the prime consolidation with the new base dividend policy, which is going to kick in.
As you've seen, in when we announced the transaction, we are committing to pay a $100 million per annum dividend. But there is also a line in there, which I, I've shown on previous slides, that we will also distribute 50% of any excess free cash flow to shareholders as well. And it is that excess free cash flow that we could consider going back into, you know, paying, doing share buybacks. But at the moment, it is not optimal for us to reinitiate the share buyback program because, of course, what will be happening until the consolidation is the, effectively the, the position of BTG would be, in terms of equity, would be growing.
But we have the flexibility in the strategy that we have put together and the financial planning that we have done, post the amalgamation, to consider share buybacks, share buybacks again. Does that answer the question?
Yes, it does. Thank you.
Thank you, Hugo.
Thank you. We'll now take the next question, and the question comes from the line of Sander Nilsen from Fearnley Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you. So, my first question. I was just wondering if you could tell us what is your take on the fact that TotalEnergies is leaving Block 11B/12B in South Africa? And I was wondering if this would maybe have an impact for Block 3B/4B. So that's the first question. And then I was wondering if it's possible to say something on the capital structure post the completion with Prime. On my numbers, it seems like you have a lot of capacity there to maybe take on more leverage. So I was wondering, do you have a maximum leverage target in mind? And then maybe, a third question, if you could just comment on, you mentioned the overlift that impacted the financials of Prime into Q.
What is the expectations there in maybe Q3 or Q4, or the second half of the year? And then finally, the fourth question is on Equatorial Guinea. You mentioned that it is or seems to be an extremely attractive block, maybe in terms of volume or what you can, what you're seeing there, it would be nice if you could elaborate a bit on that, please. Thank you.
So how do you want to distribute that?
Well, actually, Roger, sorry, before that, can you just repeat your first question, please?
Yeah, that was probably on the overlift, underlift in Prime. I was just wondering, are you currently in an overlift or an underlift position net in Prime?
Okay.
Or what should we expect in 3Q, 4Q?
Thank you for that. So shall we tackle that in order then? So the first question was, what is Africa Oil's take on TotalEnergies leaving 11B/12B in South Africa, and are there any implications for our Block 3B/4B? So over to you, Roger, to have a first stab at that question.
Okay. Well, the first thing is that they're in two very distinct areas. Firstly, there is no indication at all that Total are not going to continue with 3B, 4B. And the 11B, 12B situation is basically a long-term issue in... 'cause it's gas in marketing gas into South Africa. And that is a different game than dealing with, hopefully, oil in the Orange Basin. Now, we are actively looking and revisiting that asset to see if we see any additional value in it. But to answer the specific question, there is no relationship between Total's decision to exit 11B, 12B, and our relationship with them in 3B, 4B.
As I say, we are reviewing the situation with 11B, 12B, as we speak.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Perhaps the next question can be put to Pascal first, and that is the enlarged Africa Oil capital structure post Prime consolidation. There's obviously a lot of scope, and that's in large balance sheets and will be in controlled capitals. Pascal, any views on the sort of potential for management of the capital structure there and leverage targets that you envision?
Yeah, yes, of course. Of course, the consolidation of Prime into Africa is going to allow us to streamline our existing debt facilities. At the moment, we have one RBL facility, the one at $750 million at the Prime level. We have our corporate facility at the Africa Oil level, which, by the way, has been reduced to $65 million in the second quarter and extended for 3 years. It's clear that when we consolidate the two assets, we are probably going to keep and extend again the RBL facility at the Prime level, because this is today our most cost-effective way to borrow. So that is going to stay.
The question we are asking at the moment is whether we need $750 million or less, probably less, given the cash that we managed to accumulate. It's a fact that the debt capacity at the Prime level will continue to be significant and probably much larger than the $750. But if we want to borrow more than the $750, we need a use for it. And so either we continue to grow organically in Nigeria, and then we would have potential uses for that larger facility. But yeah, so to answer in short, we will keep the RBL facility in place, continue to roll it over maybe at a smaller amount.
We could potentially consider alternative financing sources on top of the RBL, second ranking, potentially like bonds, maybe at the Prime level or also at the Africa Oil level. The corporate facility is not designed to stay in place after completion of the existing deal with BTG. I mean, clearly that facility was a liquidity buffer just to plan for delays in dividends from Prime. But since we are going to consolidate the cash flows and put a single cash flow pooling mechanism for Prime and Africa Oil, there is no intention to keep that facility in place.
So, I mean, I've given a few hints here, but I think that's the framework around which we are thinking at the moment.
But the thing to say as well is that you're absolutely right. There is significant headroom should we require to increase leverage for any reason. You're absolutely right. And in certain models you get we become underleveraged in the as we model out. But you are right.
You wanna talk more?
There is significant, there's significant headroom in the business. So, Shahin, next question.
Well, I suppose just one final point, just to emphasize that under a consolidated Prime enlarged Africa Oil tax allocation framework, there will be a target net debt to EBITDA 1x. That would be the general rule. So actually, let's go to the fourth question that Sander asked, and that was on Equatorial Guinea. Do you want to share your views on the prospectivity on the two blocks, Roger? Because they're obviously two very different blocks in terms of price and potential there.
The one that's highest on our focus is EG-31, which is the infrastructure-led block, which is adjacent to the LNG facility, which has got significant oil and gas in it. And we do see some significant features on that block. And as I mentioned to you, we just have agreed with the government to extend the block slightly to the north, and we've taken an extra tranche of acreage in that area. Because one of the significant prospects we identified does cross what was the block boundary. And I felt it was the best interest of the company to actually get the whole of the feature, the structure in there, do the work on that, and then do the full farm-out.
Because you, what you don't want to do is get into a unitization issue, if you can avoid it. And that work is ongoing at the moment. We have all of the size, all of the seismic over that. And what we're looking at, should they be successful, is prospects which are in the north of 1 TCF size, is what we'd be focusing on, and we believe they are in that block. Now, I will say the geology is not the most simple in there, and this is taking us a bit of very careful work to get this right. So as I say, we've extended the block a little bit to the north.
We've acquired, not acquired, but we've got existing seismic and are reprocessing all of that, and are very focused in that particular area on a very particular feature, which looks very interesting to us.
Sander, I just wonder if the answers received so far, do you have, do you require any further clarification, or so far so good?
Sorry, Shahin, the line broke up a bit. What... Can you repeat?
I just wanted to double-check with you that the answers received so far answer your questions. You don't have any further,
No, absolutely.
Yeah.
No, it was fine. Thank you for that.
Well, well, well, just your final question, and we'll go back to Pascal on that. And that was basically, Pascal, the question is on the overlift, underlift. Oh, okay. Sorry, we just had a bit of technical issue. It sounds like Pascal, we lost Pascal's line on that.
No, I think I'm on.
You're on.
Yeah. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you. So Pascal, can you-
Yeah. Yeah, I will tackle that question on the lift, overlift well. I mean, in terms of barrels, I mean, this overlift, underlift position is meant to average out over the quarters, as you can imagine. We have a specific net entitlement to barrels that is predefined on a quarterly basis. And of course, every quarter we just have a right to a fixed number of cargoes. So therefore, on some quarters we are going to lift more than on our entitlement, on some quarters we are going to lift less. So the sort of balance of this underlift or overlift position is going to fluctuate between a positive and a negative on a quarterly basis.
So it's difficult to predict exactly how this is going to happen, because it depends first on our entitlement, and second, it depends on the cargo schedule. So it's very difficult to give a prediction. And on top of that, the overlift/underlift position is a barrel position. It's a position in barrel, while we account for it on the books, in a dollar value. So each time we multiply by an average sale price, which induce additional variations in terms of the overlift and underlift balance. So I would say that as a proxy, you can expect this underlift balance or overlift balance to converge towards zero at some point.
But, I mean, the nature of our business is that on a quarter-to-quarter basis, there will be fluctuation simply because our net entitlement is going to be different than the actual barrels we are lifting on a quarterly basis.
All right, thank you.
Thank you. We will now go to the next question. Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Fisk from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Can you give us an update on Africa Oil's M&A strategy? If there's any ideas or details on what kind of assets you're looking at, that would be helpful. Thanks.
Oliver, do you want to have a go at that, and then we'll go to Mr. Roger for further? Oliver.
Yeah, sure, Shahin. Hi, Kevin. Thanks for the question. Yeah, look, so I think a couple of different ways to think about this. One is obviously we've got, you know, the transactions that we've announced to close. So there's a couple of things there, but Prime, as we talked about earlier, they close to close, so very focused on getting that done. But importantly, in parallel, we are still very active in an M&A sense, in terms of looking at opportunities, looking for things that can add to inorganic growth, to the company. So we're not, we're not stopping and waiting is the message for that deal to close, right? We're very focused on that, but equally continuing to parallel.
Look, and I think then in terms of what are we, what are we looking for, it's a big question, but, you know, clearly we've got at the moment, a portfolio of very low unit costs, low carbon, high quality assets. Those are large-scale assets of which we own, you know, relatively small shares, but, but we're very happy with that. Small shares are kind of world-class assets. So, look, I'll paraphrase Roger here, but, you know, we start, rocks up, so we're very technically driven in the sense of asset quality. And then we layer onto that, you know, what is, what is the value and the other considerations.
So, again, achieving, you know, trying to achieve a portfolio that has low unit cost, is robust to oil price cycle, and ultimately is high quality assets is the shape that we like. I think we've seen several things out there that tick that box, and I think we've been open in our, you know, we announced the Prime consolidation, bringing BTG into the cornerstone shareholder that, but that will widen the lens a little bit there. So, you know, lots of opportunity in Africa, but equally, you know, there's opportunity kind of around the Atlantic margins and different places that we will take into consideration. But I think as a one liner I would give you is asset quality, right? That's our kind of key focus when we start to look at things.
Okay, thanks. Maybe as a second question, is there a date or a requirement at some point to disclose the reserves associated with Venus now that there's been a few wells drilled?
Oliver, do you want to have a first stab?
Yeah, I can. It's not the first time I've had the question, so no surprise. Look, I think, again, I mean, most people know this, but of course, the ownership structure here is what drives a lot of this in terms of what data we get directly as Africa Oil. So of course, our exposure is through our ownership and Impact. Impact itself is a private company that is the licensed spot partner, joint operating agreement partner to Total. So, you know, we're kind of one step removed there, which is a, you know, slightly unusual situation for these things. And that's what kind of drives the disclosure that we get as an investor, if you like, rather than the direct license owner.
But I think, look, that said, as the project matures and more data comes, and particularly I think in the next period, as Total said publicly, they're moving to an FID decision in 25, then naturally, I think there'll be more kind of disclosure around the project, around its scale, of resource, and particularly around the phasing and size of developments as they go forward, right? And I think, you know, four wells drilled on Venus, well tests done, that's given Total probably sufficient information in our view, to take a clear review on it, and then that work's ongoing. So as that work matures to support the FID decision, again, we'd expect more information to flow through the system.
Excellent. Thanks. That's it for me.
Thanks, Kevin.
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Herman Dahl from Pareto Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. I have a question first on production, Agbami production coming up this month after the quarter. But could you help us with thinking on production, especially decline rates into next year, and if we expect some differences in oil gas with next year compared to this year? And then also, with roughly $40 million on CapEx spend so far this year, how does that compare to your initial expectations, and should we expect that to possibly end in a lower range of the guided $100-$130 million? That's the two ones.
Thank you, Herman. Actually, if I may, I'll tackle the first question, the second question on the CapEx relative to guidance.
... As you've seen that the semiannual CapEx spend so far in the first half of this year, if you were to extrapolate that for the year, there is for us to come on the lower end of that range. Obviously there's a lot of activities going on, infill drilling on Akpo and Agbami is ongoing. The rig contract has been renewed to October and can be renewed again. So there's still a lot of activity on those fields, and we'll take a view on the CapEx in the first quarter and see where we stand in relation to the full year guidance. Now going to your first question, Herman, which was on production, post-quarter and decline rates. I don't know if Pascal, Roger, and Oliver have a view on that.
Again, I can have a first go, and that is that we did have a, a statement in our press release and MD&A, that indeed first quarter, second quarter 2024, if you look at the last monthly average production rates, the working interest is approximately 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. That compares to a second quarter working interest production of around 15,600. So it is materially higher, and that really just reflects that during the second quarter, we were obviously still had the impact of the planned shutdown on the Akpo field and the ramp up, and that is now out of the way.
Looking further out, obviously the infill drilling is aimed at minimizing the decline rates and, but ultimately, I think from an investment case, you need to look at the Preowei, development project. That is what is really going to give us, material incremental production, and you would have seen that from Oliver's pro forma, on slide 11. And in terms of your oil and gas ratio, it is... We expect that before Preowei comes in to be 80/20%. So 80% liquid, approximately 80% liquid, 20% gas, but with Preowei coming on, and we expect that to move in favor of liquids, i.e. it could go back to 85% liquids and 50% gas. Does that answer your question, Herman?
Yes. Excellent. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take the next question, and the question comes from the line of David Round from Stifel. Please go ahead.
Thanks, and afternoon, guys. A couple from me, please. Firstly, just looking at your guidance, there's still a reasonable range of production outcomes, so are you able to just talk about the assumptions that underpin the top or the bottom of that range, please? The second question refers to the new wells at Akpo. And just similar, I mean, are you able to say anything about the extent to which those wells have exceeded expectations? Were they drilled on new seismic, and is there any read across to future wells or future reserve bookings, please?
I'll have a crack at this, Shahin. You're absolutely right, David. The wells were drilled on the basis of 4D seismic in there, and the 4D seismic program is working. We can identify, or the operator can identify locations effectively. And indeed, processing has just finished on the last 4D seismic program that we have acquired. And the results of that was, you know, we haven't had look favorable as well. So the interpretation of 4D is helping in identifying, you know, good infill locations. But it is also important to stress that these fields have produced to date 2 billion barrels of oil.
They're over the peak, and they will decline, but they are declining at industry standard rates and still have in excess of 1 billion barrels to produce. And so we've been absolutely clear in the production forecast we've given, that there will be ultimately a decline, as all these giant fields do. But this, the 4D seismic does seem to now be working very effectively on identifying the locations and indeed migration of fluids within the reservoir.
Okay. I mean, I understand what you're saying about expectations for decline. Would it be fair to say you perhaps have some more optimism about your ability to perhaps arrest that decline rate given the results you've seen to date here?
I think what... Well, I don't know whether anyone wants to jump in. I think that the results of the current 4D, that is now being interpreted, need to get under our belt to come back and revisit what the drilling, the infill drilling program is going to to look like. And that is just coming out of the interpretation phase as we speak. But I, all I can say is it does work in here. And so we obviously want to, you know, minimize the decline rates as best we possibly can. And also, we're going to start to have to look at reducing costs, et cetera, et cetera, as you do as these fields get older.
But as I say, the critical element here is there's still over 1 billion barrels to produce from these fields.
Yeah. Understood. Thanks.
... Thank you. There are currently no further phone questions. I will hand back to Shahin for webcast questions.
Thank you, Sharon. There was a question from David Guidi, one of our analysts, and the question is: Can you discuss how the operational capacity of Africa Oil will change with the Prime acquisition, and what could this add in terms of personnel? Oliver, do you want to have a go?
Yeah, sure. Thanks, Shahin. Yeah, it's a good question. So I think obviously today, Prime as a standalone company, if you like, is the owner of the assets, and they have a strong team in Netherlands, where they're acting as non-operator and managing the assets. Equally, you know, in Africa Oil, we've got—I think we've got a very strong team across the technical and commercial space. And so, of course, we'll be bringing the two organizations together. And what that will do, I think from our perspective, is Africa Oil, of course, will move one step closer to the assets from a management perspective, which is very positive, in terms of visibility, in terms of kind of influence, on the operators.
And equally with Prime, we'll bring in, you know, asset knowledge and several years of day-to-day, if you like, on the asset. So the combination is very powerful. I think, you know, from Africa Oil, what do we end up looking like? Much more like a conventional E&P company. I think as individuals, that experience is strong in the business, but in bringing two organizations and the assets together, that will fill out the capacity, if you like, in terms of running Nigeria. But what it will also do, of course, is expand our kind of bandwidth, if you like, in terms of the M&A things that we're looking at and the assets we're looking at as well. So it's a very positive part of the transaction.
Thank you, Oliver. We've only got a couple of minutes left. Roger, I've been getting a number of questions over the email and also through the webcast, and that is, is Africa Oil effectively on standby in terms of growth opportunities until the Prime consolidation is closed? What kind of something gets done sooner? Are you able to comment on that?
Well, the first thing is, when is it going to close? And personally, I hope it is going to be well before the date that we've given as the long stop. To a certain extent, we are a little bit hidebound by the fact that we're closing this transaction. However, we are actively working along with our colleagues at BTG on a - and we have exactly the same strategy, actively reviewing opportunities. And if the right one comes along, we are formulating ways in which we can do it while before this deal completes.
We are, you know, it isn't the simplest way of participating, but if the right deal rocks up, then we could structure something that could be done prior to completion. But the critical element in this is that both BTG and Africa Oil have a very, very clear view on what would be an appropriate asset. Let's deal with. We are actively reviewing right now all of that. As I say, the key here is that you mustn't leap into the wrong thing, and so it's important to look at exactly what is out there. Do we like it? Does it fit?
That screening process is actually going on right now.
All right. Thank you very much. Unfortunately, we've run out of time. Roger, do you have any final comments?
I don't think so. I think that was very useful. Thank you very much.
Thank you. I look forward to the operator for the final comment.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.