Minto Apartment Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX:MI.UN)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Aug 9, 2023

Operator

Good morning. My name is Michelle. I will be your conference coordinator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Minto Apartment REIT 2023 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press Star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star, then two. Before we begin, I want to remind listeners that certain statements about future events made on this conference call are forward-looking in nature. Any such information is subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Please refer to the cautionary statements on forward-looking information in the REIT's news release and MD&A, dated August 8, 2023, for more information. During the call, management will also reference certain non-IFRS financial measures. Although the REIT believes these measures provide useful supplemental information about its financial performance, they are not recognized measures and do not have standardized meanings under IFRS. Please see the REIT's MD&A for additional information regarding non-IFRS financial measures, including reconciliations to the nearest IFRS measures. Thank you. Mr. Li, you may begin your conference.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Thank you, operator, good morning, everyone. I'm Jonathan Li, President and Chief Executive Officer of Minto Apartment REIT. I'm joined on the call by Eddie Fu, our CFO, and Paul Baron, our SVP Operations. I will begin the call with an overview of some highlights from our second quarter. Eddie will review our financial results in detail, I will end with our development pipeline and business outlook. We will be pleased to take your questions. We delivered strong operating performance in the second quarter, supported by our high-quality urban portfolio and strong demand for rental housing in all of our markets. We successfully executed on our strategy to reduce our variable rate debt exposure from 26% to 11% of our debt stack, a reduction of CAD 165.9 million.

Importantly, the refinancing initiatives have helped us deliver positive FFO and AFFO per unit growth for the first time in a number of quarters after adjusting for non-recurring items. It is also notable that the measures were implemented partway through the quarter and only had a partial impact on FFO and AFFO per unit during Q2. The full impact will be achieved beginning in Q3 onwards. In addition, we continue to evaluate other opportunities that are accretive to FFO and AFFO per unit, including upward refinancing mortgages maturing in January 2024 and further capital recycling. We are committed to maximizing FFO and AFFO per unit performance, and we will remain disciplined in our capital allocation decisions to achieve this goal. Turning to slide four, we refinanced seven mortgages during the quarter, including two variable rate mortgages and five fixed-rate mortgages, with new CMHC insured fixed-rate mortgages.

In total, as a result of the two variable rate refinancings, we realized an interest rate reduction of over 350 basis points on the two variable rate refinancings. Our variable rate debt as a percentage of total debt declined from 26%- 11%, and we generated CAD 73.8 million of incremental refinancing proceeds that we used to pay down the credit facility. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we upward refinanced maturing term debt, generating incremental proceeds of CAD 24.2 million, which we used to further repay the credit facility. In addition, we are exploring upward refinancing of three properties with mortgages maturing in early 2024 that have potential to generate between CAD 55 million and CAD 65 million of incremental proceeds that we expect to use to pay down the credit facility. Moving to slide five.

Given the current capital market conditions and interest rates, we remain disciplined as it relates to capital allocation decisions. During the quarter, we made three important decisions that highlight this. One, we agreed to terminate the purchase option on the Fifth + Bank property. Two, we waived on our right of first opportunity for three attractive development opportunities that were presented to the REIT by Minto Properties. Three, together with our investment partner, we postponed the construction start of the High Park Village intensification, the rationale for which is detailed on the slide. I'll now invite Eddie Fu to discuss our second quarter financial and operating performance in greater detail. Eddie?

Eddie Fu
CFO, Minto Apartment REIT

Thank you, John. Turning to slide six. Same-property portfolio revenue was CAD 36.7 million, an increase of 9.3% from Q2 last year, reflecting higher occupancy and higher average rents. Same-property portfolio NOI increased 11.8% year-over-year to CAD 23.1 million, while NOI margin increased by 140 basis points to 62.8%. The increase in NOI reflected a higher revenue, which outpaced higher operating expenses. The FFO and AFFO reflected non-recurring items. After adjusting for these, normalized FFO and AFFO per unit in the quarter increased by 1.2% and 1.1% to CAD 0.213 and CAD 0.186, respectively. The normalized AFFO payout ratio in the quarter was 65.9%.

Turning to slide seven, this chart demonstrates the steady quarterly increases we have generated in average monthly rent, as well as our very strong gain on lease performance in recent quarters. You can see that gain on lease was temporarily impacted by the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, but it has now been in the mid-double digit range for four consecutive quarters. Moving to slide eight, we signed 495 new leases in the quarter. The average monthly rent on new leases increased 16.2% to CAD 2,066, with significant double-digit gain on lease realized in all markets. The embedded gain to lease potential at quarter end increased to 16.1%, representing CAD 22.1 million of annualized incremental revenue growth. On slide nine, we break down quarterly suite turnover and occupancy for the same property portfolio.

Turnover of 20.2% on an annualized basis in the second quarter was a sequential increase compared to the first quarter as Q2 is a busier leasing season. It is below historical norms as more tenants are choosing to stay in place due to tight rental market conditions. Occupancy has been at least 97% for three straight quarters. Moving to slide 10, operating expenses for the same property portfolio increased 5.4% compared to Q2 last year. Property operating costs increased due to higher salaries and wages, as well as severance costs as we pursue efficiencies. Higher electricity and water expenses reflect rate increases and increased consumption. Finally, natural gas expenses dropped significantly due to lower rates as well as lower consumption due to warm spring weather.

On slide 11, we repositioned a total of 33 suites in the second quarter, generating an ROI of 9.4%. We expect to reposition 80-120 suites this year, a reduction from 259 last year, due to reduced turnover and higher occupancy. Turning to slide 12, you will find our key debt statistics. The maturity schedule of our term debt reflects our recent refinancings and remains balanced. As of June 30, 2023, the weighted average term to maturity on our debt was 5.87 years, with a weighted average interest rate of 3.23%. 89% of debt was fixed rate and 76% was CMHC insured. It increased from 74% and 61%, respectively, just last quarter.

Total liquidity was approximately CAD 163 million at quarter end. Debt to gross book value was 42.2%. I will now turn it back over to Jon.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Thanks, Eddie. Moving to slide 13, we have an overview of our development pipeline. We currently have two intensification projects under construction, one pre-development intensification, and one convertible development loans, or CDLs, that include purchase options. While we terminated the purchase option on Fifth + Bank, the other four remain in place. We will remain disciplined with our capital allocation and evaluate each opportunity carefully in the context of the prevailing market conditions. Stabilization of all the projects currently under construction is expected between 2024 and 2026. They could add 1,459 suites to our portfolio, or 1,020 at our proportionate share. You'll find some updated information and photos of the projects in our pipeline over the next 2 slides. I'll conclude with our business outlook on slide 16 before we take your questions.

Our operating results have been strong in recent quarters, supported by very solid fundamentals in the Canadian urban rental market. We believe these fundamentals are poised to remain in place for the foreseeable future. Housing affordability has become an increasingly serious issue, due in part to rising interest rates, Canada's expansive immigration policy, and inelastic supply of new housing that is not projected to keep up with demand. It is reflected in our strong rent growth and high occupancy. Given these positive fundamentals and our high-quality portfolio, we are highly focused on the following: one, maximizing FFO and AFFO per unit. Two strategic and highly disciplined allocation of capital. Three, minimizing our revolver balance given the high current interest rate environment.

Four, exploring alternatives to fund our growth while minimizing any dilution to cash flow per unit. We are confident that these strategies will deliver strong returns for unitholders, despite the external challenges our industry is facing from high interest rates and more constrained access to equity capital. That concludes our presentation this morning. Eddie and I would now be pleased to answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request. Should you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press star two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. The first question comes from Mike Markidis of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Thank you, operator. Good morning, guys, and nice to see some FFO per unit growth finally coming through the system. Congrats on that. Thanks so much for the incremental disclosure on the on the ROFOs that you've waived on in the past few quarters. Perhaps maybe you could just give us some color as to whether or not these developments have have actually progressed and if other capital partners were found, if you're able to answer that.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yeah. Hi, Michael. Thanks for the question. Can you hear me okay?

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Sure can.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Okay, great. You know, I'm here with Eddie and Paul, and if anyone's got a legal question, John Moss is sitting next to us as well. We're excited to be here. Yeah, we're happy to give you some more detail on the, on the waived opportunities. You know, MPI is a tremendous partner and are okay with us disclosing some, some, some more detail. There are five towers that they have, sorry, five properties and, you know, seven towers comprising about 1,000 suites in Vancouver alone. In Toronto, they've got three sites, five towers and 1,300 suites in Toronto. They have a mix of partners and properties they're going to go at it alone.

They're spending money on all, all of these, and the construction will probably start anywhere from Q3 of 2024 onwards. Actually, one of them may be Q1 2024. They have institutional partners on one, two, three, four, between four and five of these, who are signed up and ready to go with them.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Okay.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

We're hopeful these will potentially, at least MPI's ownership, come back into, or at least that the REIT will be presented an opportunity, hopefully in the future. They don't, they don't have to because we've waived, but we're hopeful that they'll, you know, be an option for the REIT to move forward at some point.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

The seven opportunities, it sounds like there might be a couple more. I missed the number of properties in Toronto that might come through or might be offered.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yeah, I mean, this is. There's an abundance of opportunities that MPI has. I think they've shown that these aren't kind of made up. So, even in addition to these, you know, we know they're looking at others as well and are at various stages of the process. So, you know, we're pretty excited about at least what they're doing. You know, we'll see if the REIT can take advantage of it. It'll be dependent on lots of things, including market conditions and cost of capital and access to capital.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Okay, thanks for that. Can you remind me, I mean, you're not participating in the development or development funding in any way, so you know, it was, it was the same structure as the existing CDL program. You'd have a discount purchase option. In the event that when these are developed, if Minto looks to monetize its equity stake in these properties, does that ROFO still apply?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

If it's wholly owned, if it's wholly owned, then, then we think, yes. If there's a partner, we, no, we waived everything. You know, but notwithstanding what it says, I suspect that Minto will be pretty motivated to at least get what they can in terms of ownership to, to the REIT. Obviously, there'd be no discount either if we don't lend them any money.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Yeah.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

But it's possible that even through the development process, that, you know, both parties decide that, that, that starting another CDL at market terms makes sense, and if that's the case, then there will likely be a discount associated with anything we start with.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Okay. Nice to see, at least just given the environment, not necessarily the environment, but nice to see that your partner was willing to work with you and postpone the planned intensification of High Park Village. I think it's Leslie York Mills. Is that the one that's still in pre-development? That'd be the first part of the question. Is there any thought to potentially postponing that one?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

You know, I mean, the three on-balance sheet developments that we have, Leslie York Mills, Richgrove, and High Park Village. Both Richgrove and Leslie York Mills are already under development. We've basically moved the parking garages on both of them out, out of the way so that we can dig a hole and start building. We're actually at that stage now for both Richgrove and Leslie York Mills. There's a big hole in the ground. If you drive by, you can see, and I think we're going to start the shoring relatively soon on both of them. So those we can't stop. We have a partner on LYM, where we own 100% of Richgrove. High Park Village is the one that we can, we do have control over and, and, you know, if I just can comment on that, Michael, it's...

You know, we're disappointed, and it's because, you know, our country needs more housing, right? It, it needs it now. This is a tremendous candidate to add, I think it's like 700 suites or new housing units in the heart of Toronto, right on major transit, you know, adjacent to High Park. It's too bad it can't start. The reality of the situation is, you know, we, we have competing demands for our capital, and our capital is not unlimited, so we have to be disciplined and prioritize our future spend, and, you know, we have to make some difficult decisions. At this time, you know, it makes sense for us to defer this-...

Concentrate what's already in process and what's directly in front of us. That includes not only our on-balance sheet developments that I just went through. Also includes, you know, our CDL commitments. I, I will add that the, the returns and yields for this development for our High Park Village, they still make sense in this environment for us, you know, but we don't have unlimited access to capital. That's got to be factored into our decision-making.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

You know, that, that makes a lot of sense. Thank you. Then last one for me before I turn it back. Just on, you know, maximizing cash flow per unit growth as being the number one sort of priority, given the current environment. I mean, simplistically, does that mean that as long as you've got a balance outstanding on your credit facility, any source of equity capital would be used to, to pay that down?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

I think simplistically, that's probably the case. I think, you know, we, we do have capital, capital requirements. As I just said, right, CDLs, development opportunities, you know, or on-balance sheet developments and CapEx, not to mention CapEx, right? We're going to take care of those first, and then any excess capital or cash that we have in excess of that, we will likely use to pay down our revolver because that is, you know, the most accretive thing that we can do, even, even more than, you know, buying back our units, even more than some development yields, right? Like, we're getting we're paying back over 7% money with that. I, I think that's a pretty reasonable, reasonable guess.

It's, you know, if there was an amazing acquisition opportunity and we thought we had funds and, you know, leverage was in a good spot, and it made sense strategically for us to do it, would we have to have a zero revolver balance to do that? You know, probably not. Obviously, you know, we're thinking about all this holistically and, and, and we're, we're concentrated on, on delivering FFO per unit growth.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Sure. Just can you just remind me, is there any more equity required for the two on-balance sheet developments, or has that been fully taken care of?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

No, there's a little bit. Just call it about CAD 6 million for the both of them combined, for the rest of 2023, and another about CAD 6 million for the both of them for 2024.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Then you've got construction financing for the balance?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

That's right.

Mike Markidis
Managing Director of Global Markets, BMO Capital Markets

Got it. I've taken up more than enough time. Thanks. I'll turn it back.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Thanks, Michael.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Jonathan Kelcher of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Cowen

Thanks. Good morning. I guess just sort of sticking with the balance sheet and where you guys have made really good progress on, on the floating rate debt. Given that progress, are asset sales less of a priority now than they, they may have been three or six months ago? I guess related to that, what are you seeing in the market in terms of opportunities for some asset sales?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Hey, Jonathan. On the asset sale front, I guess there are a few comments we can make. You know, to answer your question, you know, directly, we feel like you, you, you kind of nailed it. At the end of the day, you know, the good news for us now is that we don't, quote-unquote, "need to sell anything." There's no pressure for us to do it, given all the good financing work that Eddie and his team have done in recent months, and the refis that we actually have ahead of us for the balance of this year and for 2024. That really helps us, you know, vis-à-vis, pricing discussions with potential buyers. There's no real impetus for us.

We don't have to sell anything. I think that, that will help us going forward. We haven't taken our foot off the pedal in terms of asset sales because they're still accretive for the most part, right? Like, if we can sell something for a five cap and pay down a 7% revolver, like, that's accretive. We're continuing on that path. We're making... You know, the Edmonton process is still ongoing for our remaining two assets. I would say, the mortgage assumption approval process with CMHC just generally is extremely slow today, given the capacity constraints that they have, given the huge volume of applications that came in right before the fee increase went into effect in June. That slowed down everything, so they're drowning.

You know, they're, they're a, they're a great organization, fantastic partners, and we're really thankful that they're working so hard. The reality is, is, is everything, including including asset sale approvals, including normal applications, and including everything else that came in, it's just slowing everything down. So we don't have great visibility on the timing for those remaining Edmonton assets, as we're, we're simply waiting for the final approval. You know, we're, we're hopeful that, you know, before the end of September, we're hopeful that that'll happen. So that's, that's Edmonton. Then we continue to work on a handful of, of other, of other sales that are, you know, at various stages.

You know, buyer activity has been slower for larger assets, you know, call it CAD 50 million and up, because there are fewer buyers, and those buyers, you know, know they have leverage, and so they're being more selective. There does seem to be some liquidity in, in smaller assets, sort of CAD 20 million and less. You know, we're seeing that, and we're, we're, you know, our peers are seeing that, and we're, we're just seeing that with, with other transactions that, that have been announced. You know, we continue our discussions. We, we hope that there's a good outcome, nothing's guaranteed. As I said, I think, I think things will take longer due to the capacity constraints of CMHC, and that, that kind of is what it is.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Cowen

Okay. That's lots of color there. I guess just switching gears a little bit, you guys deferred the Hyde Park development. If we look out three, six months and your, your cost of capital improves and, and it starts to make sense, how, how quickly could you sort of change gears and, and move forward with that?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yeah. I think as we announced, we are continuing the pre-development work over the next 12 months. You know, it's probably a small budget in, like, the low, the very low single digits, for 100% of the project, for us to keep spending some money to, you know, prepare the site for it, get the renderings done, get everything ready for tender. When we finish that work, which will take, I don't know, eight to 12 months, we will be in a position that when we say go, we'd hopefully just have to go through the tendering process and can start shovels, about six months after we decide to say go.

Jonathan Kelcher
Director of Equity Research, TD Cowen

Okay. That's it for me. I'll turn it back. Thanks.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Matt Kornack of National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Hey, guys. Just switching to operations, the, the gain to lease opportunity increased a bit this quarter, but leasing spreads were, were kind of flat. How should we think of the trajectory of those two, understanding that your turnover is a bit higher, because you have some non-rent controlled assets, but and Alberta exposure? Just a sense as to, to where you see that gain to lease moving, maybe over the next 12 months or so.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Sure. Hey, Matt, thanks. You know, I think a couple of comments on the gain to lease. I think our rents are higher, you know, CAD 1,800 rents on average, so I don't think we can grow that at 16% into perpetuity. I think we saw, you know, 9%-13% gain to leases pre-pandemic, and we think that the fundamentals in the market today are stronger than they were pre-pandemic, which leads us to, you know, slightly higher than 9%-13%. Maybe it's, you know, 10%-15% or low double digits, we think is a reasonable assumption for our gain to lease going forward.

That, that means long term, if you assume a low double-digit growth on our, on our new leases, and you assume 3%- 3.5% on our renewals, that still gets you to 5%- 6% revenue growth. We think now that we've right-sized or, or at least fixed some, some of our balance sheet, we're hopeful that even if we generate 5% or 6% revenue growth, we can translate that and then some into cash flow per unit growth if you add leverage to that. We still think that's an okay place to be over the long term. I guess the last point is, if you think about our 16%, don't forget that is on 1,800, right? Or on a much higher rent.

That is, if you just do that math of 16% x 1,800, that's, I don't know, CAD 280 million or CAD 290 million per month on our rent. That's, you know, if you, if you take that 280 or so on a much lower starting base, that's a much higher percentage gain to lease. I don't want to lose sight of that for us.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Yeah. No, fair enough. That makes, that makes sense. I guess the only other aspect of the math there would be just cost escalations. It seems like you guys and your peers are starting to see some reprieve on that front. Utilities were down. Now, granted, it may have been usage plus cost, but year-over-year, I guess we may be in better shape this winter. On that front, margin expansion, it seems like it's happening, how should we think about that going forward?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

You know, I think we've been pretty consistent with, with telling people what we think, at least for 2023. That is, we expect our revenue growth to outpace our expense growth. Where, you know, if you just think overall about our expenses, I think, I think the new inflationary increase for us is probably 5%-6%. You can expect inflationary increases for many line items, right? Water, hydro, you know, property tax is a bit lumpy, but so far it's a little lower than that. We are experiencing higher growth on salaries, high single digit, maybe even double-digit growth on that. Where we're getting a little better is on natural gas, where we remain unhedged.

I think the comps for the rest of the at least the next two or three quarters, are likely going to be favorable from a pricing perspective, at least. Again, I don't know about usage, but you take all of that together, we think kind of like mid 5%- 6% growth on the expense side, maybe a little higher than that, I don't know. It's probably going to happen, but we're hopeful that revenue will outpace it.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Yeah, that makes sense. Then lastly, for me, on, on the occupancy front, just general seasonality. It, it's a more active time, so you have move-ins and move-outs. Sequentially, it was, it was fairly stable at 97%. Montreal still looks a little light at 94, and I know you've got the Le 4300 that you're dealing with there. How should we think about kind of the, the second half of the year from an occupancy standpoint? For you, what is an ideal occupancy number? Are you, are you kind of yield maximizing to some extent and keeping a bit of vacancy?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yeah, well, I think like our major markets other than Montreal, are all between 97.5 and 98.5% occupancy, and we feel like that's a good place to be for those markets. We're getting pricing power, we're able to drive yields, and we feel pretty good about that. Any upside in our occupancy will likely come from Montreal. Like you just said, it's been pretty slow. We're hopeful that it catches up to the rest, but where we are experiencing our vacancy in our Montreal portfolio, I think as we-- and I think you asked this question before, is in our, you know, higher rent penthouses in Rockhill, as well as a number of units in Le 4 300, which, as you know, is just a much more expensive building and higher rents.

That's where the vacancy is in our portfolio, and, and we're, we're working hard on it, but it's, you know, management spends a lot of time out there.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Yeah. You wouldn't say there's been a step change in demand at this point in, in that, but still hopeful that, that you get some progress there. Would you capitulate it on, on rate at all to fill it, or, or you just, you don't want to go there right now?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

I mean, the only promotion that we have in our portfolio is in Montreal. We, you know, given the time of the year today, we're probably less inclined to give the farm away on, on promotion. As we approach the more difficult leasing seasons in the winter, you know, maybe we'll look at it a little bit differently so that we're at least full through a slower time in the year. You know, we're not there yet, and I think there's, there's a lot of, you know, for Le 4300, that note is quite unique in that, you know, folks need to sell their homes in Westmount for CAD 3 million-CAD 4 million to fund, you know, a stream of rental payments going forward.

That's not an easy decision, it's not a quick decision, and it's not easy to execute in terms of selling your house. We are cautiously optimistic. You know, to answer a little bit more of your question, I guess you did mention, you know, we are seeing a lot more students, not just in Montreal, but everywhere. In our Montreal portfolio, we don't, you know, the students can't afford the, the, the, the units that are vacant unless you put five students in one apartment, which probably isn't good for anybody. That's kind of what we're dealing with there, Matt.

Matt Kornack
Real Estate Equity Research Analyst, National Bank Financial

Nope. Makes sense. Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Brad Sturges of Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Brad Sturges
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Raymond James

Hi, good morning. just to, I guess, thanks for the color on the asset sale process or progress. Just curious, if you had a pencil and timing, would you still expect an announcement or a deal to be done by the end of the year?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Well, I think I just mentioned, so on Edmonton, I think I just put the bogey out there at kind of hopefully end of September. On the other stuff that we're working on, I would not be anticipating any announcements in 2023, given the backup that is currently at CMHC with approvals.

Brad Sturges
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Raymond James

Got it. That's helpful. Just based on, let's say, Edmonton, getting completed, plus, some of your planned refinancings, that it's going to generate some incremental proceeds. Where do you see floating rate debt exposure penciling out at? Is that going to be, I think, where you hinted at last quarter, like mid-single digits in terms of % of debt?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yeah, I think, I think. You know, because again, we do have ongoing capital commitments for the rest of the year, so we won't just be standing still, we'll be drawing down. I think by the end of 2023, we'll, we'll be kind of close to where we are today, right? With some refinancings that we have in the pipe in early 2024, we expect that to come down slightly from there.

Brad Sturges
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Raymond James

Right. As you're getting closer to your target, does that make it easier to shift the, the capital allocation strategy back towards adding a little bit more focus on growth, such as maybe funding some of those acquisitions through the CDL program?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

I, I mean, it, it helps, but it's not just the only factor. There's lots of factors that we're considering. You know, what, what are the relative cap rates relative to our cost of capital? You know, could we sell some assets and match fund and maybe, you know, high grade the portfolio? You know, are we entering a new market that we really want to get into because there's a path to own a lot more in those markets? You know, there's a, there's a whole bunch of strategic reasons as to why we may or may not do an acquisition.

I think we want to get into a position where we have the option to do as many things as possible and with our capital. I think reducing the revolver amount to the extent we can, helps us get to that position where we have the flexibility and the optionality to, you know, do what we can do with our, with our capital at, at a time where it makes sense.

Brad Sturges
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Raymond James

That makes sense. Thanks a lot for that. I'll turn it back.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Jimmy Shan of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks. Yes, just two questions for me. Are you able to speak to the development economics on the opportunities that you passed on? Secondly, maybe speaking in theoretical, if you were to do those CDL on any of these opportunities, what do you think the rate would look like relative to what you're currently earning on the projects?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Okay. I, I'm gonna-- I'll try... I'll answer your first question, then you'll have to repeat the second question because I didn't quite get it. On the first question, the ones that we passed on, the economics for the development are extremely good. You know, they're in the, I mean, some of them are, are, are above 5% yields, many are high teens, low 20s IRRs, we just don't have the capital to do it, it's too bad. The, the proof in the pudding there is that there are part-- like, MPI sound partners to invest money alongside of them, you know, at those returns.

Even with cost escalations and interest rate increases and everything else, you know, rent, rent, rent assumptions, given where market rents are, the development yields for all those, all those, all those developments are at a point where smart institutional money is willing to go forward.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

High teens IRRs levered, I assume, right?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yep.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. My second question was: if you were to do a convertible loan, would the rate be materially different from what you're currently earning?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yeah. Yeah, for sure. I mean, we joke about that, right? We're like, okay, well, if we were to reset a new CDL, like, what does that look like?

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

The CDLs that we struck that are currently yielding 6% and 7%, I think the base rate was like sub 2% at that time that they struck those deals. That's quite a nice equity spread. I'm not, I'm not saying we're, you know, we'd get 4%-5% on top of six or seven, but there'd be a positive equity spread, I think, if we struck a new one. It will be on market terms, Jimmy.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah. Market terms would be probably closer to high single digit.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yeah, I would-- I mean, look, I, I don't, I don't know, and I don't wanna, I don't wanna negotiate anything on here.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

It's, you know, a spread to our revolver or, or some other base rate, I think makes some sense. Now, look, this is basically mezz debt that is guaranteed by a partner. If you think mezz debt is low double digits, like this is better than that. Plus, you get the 5% discount, which you need to factor in. It's, it's, it's, it's in that sort of, you know, higher than what it is today. I, I, again, I don't want to negotiate with MPI, without MPI at the table here.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

Fair enough. One quick follow-up. The Minto, their institutional partners who are going in on these development projects, would they be candidates as partners for you on the existing assets that you're currently selling or looking to sell, or maybe selling a half interest or something, or anything like that?

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yes.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

That's a, a potential opportunity on your asset selling initiatives.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Yep, potentially.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

Yeah.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Look, but we're not looking to sell brand-new assets, though, right? That's the difference here. Like, the capital that's chasing the new developments, they want brand new urban. Some of the assets we're looking to selling is not that. If we got to a point where we wanted to buy one of the CDL opportunities, you know, finding a partner, like, there's lots of options that we're considering, and I'll just throw one out is, if we find a partner, reduces the equity check, we get some management fees, it validates the purchase price. You know, that, that could make sense. Everything's on the table.

Jimmy Shan
Managing Director of Real Estate Global Research, RBC Capital Markets

Good.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back to Jonathan Li for closing remarks.

Jonathan Li
President and CEO, Minto Apartment REIT

Thanks, Michelle, and thank you, everyone, for your time. We appreciate it, and we will see you next quarter. Take care.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

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