Welcome to Northland's Investor Day. Unfortunately, once again, we're gathering virtually. However, whether through computer screens or in a conference room with bad coffee, we are very excited to talk to you about Northland's resilient operations and growth trajectory. We'll start with a corporate overview, and then David Povall, our Executive Vice President, Development, will do a deep dive into our development projects and our growth pipeline. Our CFO, who you all know, Pauline Alimchandani, will round out the presentation with an update on our strong financial position, an overview of how we will fund our growth in the coming years, and a forecast on cash flow growth. Joining us for questions and answers at the end will be Wendy Franks, Executive Vice President, Strategy and Investment Management, and Morten Melin, Executive Vice President, Construction.
Let's begin by looking at how we did on the objectives we set out at last year's Investor Day, where we talked about our growing portfolio of advanced stage offshore wind projects. Since then, Northland has closed on its entry into the 1.2-GW Baltic Power offshore wind project in Poland, for which we also secured a 25-year index CFD or power purchase agreement. We expanded our presence in the German offshore wind market with the formation of the 1.3-GW North Sea Cluster with RWE and exercised our step-in rights on the first of three projects in that cluster. David will walk you through significant advancements we made in our Asian offshore wind projects as well.
Finally, we have added both storage and hydrogen talent as we look ahead to optimizing the value in our renewable power operating and development assets, as well as contemplate stand-alone project investments. On securing immediate and near-term growth, we secured a 551 MW portfolio of wind and solar operating assets in Spain, one of the most promising growth markets for renewables. That portfolio has so far been performing better than our underwritten assumptions. We signaled our entry into the U.S. renewables market by beginning construction on two New York State onshore wind projects, which are progressing on schedule and on budget. We delivered on our Colombian renewables growth strategy with the start of construction on one solar project and by securing a PPA on another larger solar project with our partner, EDF.
We also talked last year about using our offshore wind market position and bench strength to be an early mover in new offshore wind markets. The award of two offshore wind leases in Scotland to Northland Power, totaling 2.3 GW, positions us to be a significant player in an offshore market that is on the cusp of tremendous growth over the next decade. It also demonstrated how we can continue to grow in offshore wind by being smart and selective in the auctions and the markets we participate in. With a lot of eyes focused on 2030 decarbonization and climate targets, we expect the demand for additional renewable power capacity to accelerate. Well-regarded forecasts are estimating that 250 GW of solar and 103 GW of wind will be needed to be added every year globally.
Offshore wind should continue to be the fastest-growing renewable power technology, with an estimated $380 billion in investments needed by 2030. We've made a number of key moves in the last year to position Northland for success in delivering and continuing to deliver reliable cash flow from its facilities, executing on its development projects, and growing our pipeline. We've enhanced our strategy and market analysis teams to ensure we are picking the right markets and adjusting as market conditions evolve. There's been a surge of demand for long-term renewable offtake agreements from corporates and industrials looking to take the first step in meeting their net zero targets. Our newly created corporate offtake group is setting Northland up to meet this growing demand.
Our global project management office will provide best-in-class project planning, risk management, and oversight as we embark on a significant construction program in the coming years. As supply chain constraints emerge, our new global procurement group will turn our significant growth pipeline into an advantage with suppliers as we take a much more proactive and global approach to project procurement. Perhaps the biggest challenge for the fast-growing offshore wind sector is talent. We view our Hamburg and Taipei-based offshore wind technical, commercial, and project management teams as a definite competitive advantage. Our Hamburg asset management team allowed us to quickly diagnose a main bearing assembly issue on our Nordsee One project last year and mobilize a replacement campaign while continuing to operate that facility at a high level of availability.
Created in 2020, our investment management team has begun to really hit its stride with deep analytic dives on our operating facilities to identify potential optimizations. Finally, we've strengthened our human capital management team as we position Northland to be an employer of choice in the offshore wind and onshore renewable sector. The growth pipeline we've been talking about over the last few years is now moving to the next phase, with over 2.9 GW of projects forecast to reach FID and construction over the next 24 months. This represents the de-risking of what will be approximately CAD 600 million of additional annual adjusted EBITDA. During this period, onshore renewable projects will move from construction to operations, and three large offshore wind projects will enter construction.
As we look toward future growth, we believe our top 10 global position in offshore wind is a key competitive advantage, as that sector is expected to grow faster than onshore wind and solar. Moreover, there are significant barriers for new entrants into this sector, given the scale and complexity of these projects. Our deep bench of offshore wind project management, commercial, and engineering talent sets us apart from most other listed IPPs. We are the fourth-largest operator of offshore wind assets globally, and perhaps only one of two or three listed companies which get the majority of their EBITDA from offshore wind. What's more important is the offshore wind growth pipeline our teams are developing. We have teams on the ground developing offshore wind projects in some of the best markets for offshore wind in the world, including Taiwan, South Korea, Germany, Poland, and now the U.K.
We are also keeping an eye on other emerging offshore wind markets. To be clear, however, given the size of these projects relative to Northland itself, we don't need to be in every offshore wind market. We can pick the most promising ones as measured by returns, cost of entry, country risk, and long-term growth potential. Onshore renewables is a more mature but larger market. Our approach here is to target a very limited number of quality markets where there will be a growing demand for renewables, where we can create a strong competitive position and become a scale player in those markets. In Spain, we are now a top ten renewables operator and are looking to leverage that position with development and M&A tuck-ins. EU Eastern Europe is now increasingly focused on decarbonizing coal-heavy electricity grids.
In a market like Poland, we are looking to leverage the brand recognition created by our entry into Baltic Power to secure onshore renewable growth. Federal and state policies in the Northeast U.S., along with corporate demand, are driving huge growth in renewables. We have built up a strong on-the-ground development team in New York State that will work across the Northeast, with the first results being the wind projects we are currently building in New York. Colombia has so far lagged the rest of Latin American wind and solar deployment. That is all changing now as their thermal capacity ages and there are few new hydro development opportunities. Our distribution utility, EBSA, puts Northland on an equal footing with domestic players as wind and solar growth accelerates in that country.
With tax appetite, a team on the ground, and energy marketing capabilities, we believe we can build out a substantial renewables portfolio in the years ahead. As we did almost 10 years ago with offshore wind, we are now also looking to where the next wave of growth will be in our sector. As gas peakers need to be replaced and intermittent renewable-heavy grids need to be managed, more battery and other forms of storage will be needed. Green electrons will also be converted to green molecules, hydrogen or green ammonia, to begin displacing fossil fuels for heating, transport, and industry. This can both allow Northland to create more value from its current operating assets, but also make attractive standalone investments as well.
As we look ahead to 2030, we see the majority of our capital going towards offshore wind projects, but a significant amount also going into onshore renewable projects that will deliver cash flow as early as 2023. Our utility investments will focus primarily on the Colombian renewable platform strategy I outlined a couple of slides earlier, and we believe storage and hydrogen will develop a growing toehold in our portfolio. There's been some recent focus on inflation concerns and renewable supply chain constraints. Our operating facilities are very well-protected from potential inflation. The majority of our costs at our thermal facilities are passed through fuel costs, and our capacity payments are indexed. Canadian onshore renewable PPAs are also indexed. The rate-regulated tariff structure of EBSA and our Spanish renewables fleet provides good inflation protection.
While our offshore wind facilities are not indexed, long-term OEM service contracts there provide some protection, and the offtake structure also allows for some upside benefit if power prices rise substantially. The most vulnerable point on a development project is the period between revenue contract award and financial close when you get most of your costs locked down. Our construction projects in New York and Colombia locked in their costs eight or nine months ago. Preferred supplier agreements on Hai Long give us excellent visibility on costs as we move toward locking them down in Q3, when our new Colombian project will also lock in its costs. Baltic Power benefits from an indexed CFD or PPA. Until recently, Northland was arguably more focused on building large renewable power projects than properly reporting to the market on just how sustainable our business is.
That is all changing now as we have a team specifically mandated on better tracking and reporting key ESG metrics. We've also established carbon intensity reduction targets, built on our already strong safety record, and continue to develop our partnerships with Indigenous and other communities. We've made strides in gender diversity at the board and the executive team level. This slide shows how all of these efforts have driven significant improvements across a range of ESG indices, which we believe will continue to accelerate. Looking forward, we will see our installed capacity double by 2027, and that growth trajectory will continue as our growth pipeline advances into construction and operations through the balance of the decade.
In a world with a huge need for new renewable power capacity and lots of capital looking to invest in those assets, you wanna be a developer, and a developer with projects of scale. Northland's project funding model will also be taking advantage of this dynamic by beginning to bring third-party investors into our projects and looking to other funding tools like green corporate hybrids. All of this will allow our equity to perform better and reduce dilution. With that, I will now turn the presentation over to our head of development, David Povall.
Thank you, Mike, and I would like to extend my welcome and thank you to everyone for joining the Investor Day call today. During our Investor Day 12 months ago, I introduced you to our global development pipeline. Today, I would like to take the opportunity to provide you with an update on the progress that has been made in moving the projects forward through their key development milestones. I want to share with you how we are delivering on our strategy, growing our resources, and deploying these skills to achieve the key milestones on the projects. Through this, we add value to the pipeline as we move our projects towards financial close, construction, and into operations. A key feature of the strategy that we have shared with you before is that we are a global company with a local presence.
We have local teams in the regions who have intimate knowledge of the jurisdiction in which they work, with a strong local skill base, resourced through local hires that are delivering the projects with the support and guidance of the wider business. Through this approach, we today have a pipeline that sits at 14 GW. I will share with you today more on how the projects have achieved key milestones and are being de-risked on their journey through the development phases. The 14-GW pipeline covers all of our technologies of onshore and offshore renewables. It remains dominated by offshore wind, which represents about 12 GW. On this slide, we provide a breakdown of the pipeline across technology and geography. Through this, you can see the focused strategy we are deploying. Asia and Europe are our key markets for offshore wind and hold 87% of the pipeline.
Our growing onshore portfolio is focused on those markets where we see value and scale opportunities, this being in Europe, across Spain and the Eastern EU, in the U.S., particularly New York and the Northeast, and in Colombia. In addition, with the new hires we have made through 2021 in the areas of hydrogen and storage, we are identifying and pursuing early opportunities in these areas. Finally, as a reminder, you will see, to support this growth, we have offices in all of our key markets, the teams that I mentioned above working closely with the local stakeholders and partners that we have in the projects. In addition, we have project offices based in the local communities where we are working.
I referred earlier to moving projects through their key milestones on the journey to being operating assets, and here I have summarized the key identified projects that continue to make progress on that journey. Through 2021, a number of our onshore renewable projects moved into construction and will, by the end of 2022, be operating, taking our operating portfolio to 3.6 GW by the end of the year. The success in closing out key milestones on our development projects through 2021, which I will provide more details on later, means we have greater visibility and confidence on the next wave of projects moving into construction and becoming operating assets over the next five years.
Specifically, this year in 2022, we should see three projects move into construction, being the solar project in Colombia, Suba, the third of our New York onshore wind projects, High Bridge, and our first offshore wind project in Taiwan, Hai Long. With these projects, and then Baltic Power and Nordsee Two following closely behind, this will mean in five years from today, we will have an operating portfolio that has doubled from where we start this year and will be at 6.4 GW. The pipeline, as I talked about earlier, is much deeper than just these named projects, hence further growth in this period and beyond to 2030 can be achieved.
In this next few slides, I will focus on our offshore projects and provide an update on how these projects have moved forward and achieved key milestones. I will also outline for you where we have secured new projects into the development pipeline. A quick run through the target markets with more detail to follow. In Poland, we secured the partnership with ORLEN on the 1.2 GW Baltic Power project. In Germany, we exercised our step-in rights to retain the Nordsee Two project lease, and at the same time established a wider cluster partnership of 1.3 GW with RWE in the North Sea. In Scotland, 2021 was dominated by development work on the ground to assess the merits of lease sites under the ScotWind leasing process.
The team worked very closely with the local community in the Western Isles, and the good news we received only a few weeks ago now that we had been awarded two of the sites was great news for the team and community and a real testament to the hard work and strategy that had been set. Moving across to Asia. In Korea, we secured our first two electricity business licenses as part of the team progressing a larger portfolio of projects through early development. Outside of Hai Long, the team in Taiwan are progressing the development of projects to bid into the upcoming round three auctions later in 2022. The projects in Japan, I'm pleased to say, have been designated under the government's auction process as promising areas and are tracking towards bidding commencing later this year.
Now to focus on some of these projects in more detail, starting with the Hai Long project, our 1,044 MW offshore wind project in Taiwan, which is progressing well towards financial close later this year. 2021 saw some key milestones successfully completed. The localization plan was obtained after much work with the local supply chain and government. Tendering of the main components has resulted in preferred supplier agreements being signed, securing the supply chain for the project. With regards to the 14 MW Siemens Gamesa turbine that the project will use, progress was made through securing the environmental impact assessment, amendment approval for its use, and prototype testing is underway. The geophysical and geotechnical campaigns continued through the year, providing critical input for the main design works of the offshore structures. Certification is progressing well and is on track.
In summary, financial close later this year will be a significant milestone, not only for Northland but for Taiwan on its journey to achieve its offshore and wider renewable energy goals. Since the establishment of the partnership on Baltic Power, good progress has been made on moving the project forward through development. The project was granted a 25-year contract for differences earlier in 2021. Key work streams are underway on the design, certification, permits, and consents, and on procurement to secure the key supply chain contracts. The financing plan is also underway as we move the project to a financial close next year in 2023. Poland remains an exciting market, and we see the potential for further growth in the market, building from our Baltic Power experience. The Nordsee Cluster comprises three projects adjacent to our Nordsee One project in the German North Sea.
Through 2021, the local team saw the opportunity for a win-win by bringing together the existing assets of Nordsee Two and Three with the Delta assets from RWE. The synergies in development, construction, and operations from the cluster offer enhanced returns to the partners, in addition to being able to consider the enhanced offtake options with a larger portfolio. The first milestone was achieved in 2021 when we secured the Nordsee Two site through exercising our step-in rights. The development of the Nordsee Two project is now underway, with a new dedicated team being established and tracking the project towards financial close in 2024. An important part of any development business is to ensure you continue to build the pipeline for the future, and as a result, you have a sustainable business.
With the success in Scotland, where we were awarded two leases in the recent Crown Estate offshore wind process, this is an important part of delivering on this strategy. The award was for two sites totaling 2.3 GW, with one fixed foundation site and noteworthy, a floating foundation site, which is Northland's first floating offshore wind development site, an important technology for the latter stage of this decade. The ScotWind success highlights two key parts of Northland delivering on its strategy. Firstly, by being an early mover in key markets, and secondly, doing what we do well in establishing local partnerships to ensure successful developments and projects to both Northland and the local community. Early development activity is already underway by the team. Moving to Asia.
Japan in 2021 has been a story of strengthening our local team in the market through additional skills being brought into the team and one of progressing the development of our two projects. It was great news when the government designated the two project areas as promising areas in the round three announcement, recognizing the hard work of the teams on the ground and the selection of these areas as future offshore wind sites in Japan. For both the Izumi City project in Chiba Prefecture and the Katagami City project in Akita Prefecture, wind measurement campaigns continue, and geophysical and geotechnical surveys have been undertaken to support the design and optimization. This work will all feed into the preparation of our bids later this year. We continue to work closely with the local communities, stakeholders, and our partners on these projects.
In South Korea, we continue to have success in expanding our pipeline. At the end of 2021, we have a 1.6 GW portfolio of early and mid-stage development projects. A key milestone in this market is to secure an electricity business license for your sites, which grants you the priority development rights for that location. I am pleased to report that for our Dado Projects in 2021, we secured two electricity business licenses totaling over 800 MW. With this success, the local team, which has been strengthened through the year, continues with the key offshore work and design. The second project into the pipeline is the Bobae Project in Jindo County.
This has the potential for a project around 600 MW, is currently in early development stage, tracking six-nine months behind Dado, and on its route to securing electricity business license later this year. Common across both of these projects is the work we are doing with the communities and wider stakeholders to ensure we have their support as we develop the projects. Finally, in Asia, I return to Taiwan and the upcoming auction bids for Round 3. Drawing on the significant experience we have through the development of our Hai Long project, we announced in 2021 the development of two sites totaling around 1.8 GW, which we intend to participate in the upcoming Round 3 auctions. Northland has established a dedicated team to work on these projects, which are fixed foundation sites. Key milestones in the early development have been completed.
For example, the environmental impact assessment studies such as geophysical and geotechnical works, preliminary engineering design, optimization works, and leveraging on the Hai Long experience working with the local supply chain. I would now like to switch to our onshore wind and solar activities and update you on these. The onshore portfolio offers attractive and complementary projects to the Northland portfolio, and we continue to secure projects and build local capabilities to deliver them. It is a sector that is expected to continue to grow upwards of 10% per annum over the next decade. With the shorter development cycle and M&A opportunities, the projects offer growth in near-term cash flow that supports the wider development activities in offshore wind.
As with offshore wind, we are very targeted in our approach to the markets and are focused on key jurisdictions where we believe we can be successful, those being in the U.S. Northeast, Southern and Eastern Europe, and Colombia. I am pleased to highlight some of the successes we had in 2021 in advancing our onshore projects. In Spain, in the summer, we successfully delivered on our M&A strategy with the acquisition of the 551 MW onshore wind and solar portfolio. We have already established a strong and growing team on the ground in Madrid to manage this portfolio. In Colombia, leveraging on our EBSA platform to expand into renewable projects, we achieved financial close on our first solar project, the 60 MW Helios Project, which is now in construction.
Towards the end of the year, we participated in and secured an offtake contract through an auction for the 130 MW of solar projects, Project Suba. 2022 will see these projects moving to financial close and into construction. Finally, to the U. S. and specifically New York, where during 2021 we achieved financial close on the 220 MW Ball Hill and Bluestone Projects. The third project, High Bridge, 100 MW of onshore, should follow into construction later this year. As I have mentioned, executing on our M&A strategy to secure near-term cash flow and establish a base for further growth was demonstrated in 2021 with our success in Spain. The country offers an attractive renewable market for further growth.
We have taken a top ten operator position through the acquisition of a portfolio of 551 MW of operating onshore renewable assets, with revenue from strong regulated tariffs with more than 13 years remaining of regulated life. As we look to expand further in our target European markets, including further growth in Spain, the Spanish operations offer a strong onshore renewable asset management platform to drive and support the next stage of the growth. In the U. S., we see significant growth in New York market and achieved the key milestones in 2021 to deliver on our growth strategy through securing 20-year index REC contracts for our 320 MW onshore wind portfolio. This is made up of three projects, and in 2021, we achieved financial close and moved the Ball Hill and Bluestone Projects into construction.
I'm pleased to report that construction is on track, and later in 2022, we will see the achievement of commercial operations of these first two projects. Our final story of success is in Colombia, where in the recent Colombian renewables auction, we secured two solar projects with a combined capacity of 130 MW. The projects are underpinned by 15-year power purchase agreements. The projects are late-stage development, and the local team is finalizing the key contracts and financing, working to a commencement of construction in the middle of this year. On this slide, I wanted to share a quick summary of the onshore renewable projects that I have referred to.
Through the focus on securing near-term cash to complement the growth of our offshore wind portfolio, we have nearly 1.2 GW of onshore renewable projects with a clear line of sight to being operational in 2022 and 2023. We will continue to deliver these projects through this year and look to further grow the portfolio. Finally, before handing over to Pauline, let me close with a table summarizing our 8 GW of capitalized and identified projects broken out from the 14-GW development pipeline that I introduced you earlier. We had a busy 2021 growing and progressing our projects through their key milestones on the journey to operational assets, and I predict 2022 will be another busy year for us. Thank you for listening, and let me hand over to Pauline, our Chief Financial Officer.
Thank you, David, and good morning, afternoon, evening to everyone joining us today from various parts around the globe, our investors, lenders, employees, and other stakeholders in Northland. We are immensely proud of the accomplishments we have achieved together as a team over the past year and are gearing ourselves up to continue to deliver on our stated objectives in 2022. With respect to the finance team, since last year's Investor Day, we have continued to add strong capabilities to the team to support global growth and execution. I will specifically highlight a few areas where we have added talent and resources. We continue to add dedicated project finance resources locally in our offices around the world. We have added resources in Amsterdam to support Europe and Asia financing, and we are in progress of adding capabilities in Houston to support our planned Colombia financings.
We have added capabilities to prepare for, and lead future sell down execution and also to manage touch points with our growing list of potential global partner relationships. We have also expanded our global tax resources to include in-house capability for the U.S., Latin America, and Asia. We are also establishing strong finance leadership within our regions and our projects. Specifically, we onboarded a finance director for Asia in middle of 2021, in addition to onboarding a new finance director to lead Spain following our entry into the market in August of 2021. We are in progress on securing a deputy CFO for Europe and onboarding a finance director for our new North Sea Cluster recently announced with RWE.
These are just some of the areas where we have been able to secure strong talent so that we can build platform-wide capability and financial stewardship to continue our growth and onboarding of new projects and partnerships. Taking stock of how we have tracked towards accomplishing the objectives we set out at last year's Investor Day, we as a team have accomplished almost all of what we set out to do with a few areas still in progress, but also achieved many new initiatives during the year to support the strength of our balance sheet and financing of our projects. Specifically, we launched our green financing framework this time last year and took the first steps to green the balance sheet, which included our New York and Colombia onshore renewable project financings in adding a sustainability-linked overlay tied to our ESG targets on our CAD 1 billion revolving credit facility.
We executed on Northland's largest-ever equity raise of nearly CAD 1 billion to fund the acquisition of the Spain portfolio, as well as fund some of the capital requirements for our New York Wind and Baltic Power projects. We executed on several non-recourse financings and refinancing optimizations, as was set out at the start of the year, generating almost CAD 200 million of liquidity in 2021 and early 2022. The only project we haven't yet financed is our La Lucha solar project in Mexico, for which commercial operations have been delayed.
We expect to have funded approximately CAD 200 million towards the construction of La Lucha, and our view from a balance sheet perspective is that we can afford to be financially patient until we can achieve commercial operations, so we can commence contracting, which would ultimately permit for more permanent forms of financing to be available for the project. In 2021, we added our second credit rating by Fitch with a BBB stable rating, similar to our existing rating by S&P. With our global growth and reach, we believe it is both prudent and advantageous to have a second credit rating. We are working to finalize the preferred hedging strategy for Hai Long, which will be completed later this year prior to financial close. We have successfully commenced initial steps to set ourselves up to execute on future asset-level sell downs.
2021 was an active year for the company, and we will lay out the objectives for 2022 later on in the presentation, which will illustrate yet another busy year for our team. Our long-term financial objectives are to maintain our investment-grade balance sheet to support future growth. This is important for both the cash and credit obligations to fund our development projects. Our balance sheet funding plan provides us with the ability to maintain the flexibility across various sources of capital pools to fund the CAD 12 billion-CAD 15 billion of total project costs associated with our capitalized projects. Upon delivering these capitalized projects, which, to be clear, includes only projects with costs capitalized on our balance sheet today under IFRS criteria, we expect to deliver a solid 7%-10% EBITDA growth CAGR over the next five years to 2027.
As new projects are secured and capitalized, we would expect our EBITDA growth to increase further. Ultimately, we are targeting to drive growth in free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow per share over the long term. This slide shows our five-year capital plan has more than doubled from historical levels and reflects a solid but manageable growth trajectory for the company. Growth and capital allocation continues to be focused on offshore wind and supplemented by onshore renewables, with shorter-term development cycles, which will deliver nearer-term cash flows. Growth is diversified across many regions, including existing and new markets for Northland. As you can see from the chart, Hai Long and Baltic Power, which are targeted for financial close in 2022 and 2023 respectively, make up most of the allocation and funding plan over the next five years.
We have strong local teams leading both projects alongside our respective shareholders and partners. This table shows our capitalized costs and funding requirements broken down by project. All of our capitalized projects are in advanced stages of development, with New York Wind and Suba in Colombia expected to achieve commercial operations in the next couple of years, and our offshore wind projects expected to achieve commercial operations post-2025. All of this translates to nearly 3 GW of growth projects and CAD 12 billion- CAD 15 billion of costs, or CAD 7 billion- CAD 9 billion at Northland's current ownership interest, to be delivered and funded over the next five years. Gross capital investments include costs to advance these projects to financial close. In 2022, we expect to spend about CAD 150 million-CAD 200 million to fund these projects.
These costs are expected to be funded via cash on-hand, our corporate revolver, and non-recourse up financings. With the focus on our credit rating, we consider that it's preferable to use cash and low-cost credit to fund investments into our capitalized growth projects, which are tracking well towards their milestones and are largely targeted for financial close in either 2022 or 2023. What does this growth translate into in terms of EBITDA for the company? Our capitalized projects are expected to deliver solid growth in EBITDA, increasing our EBITDA to a range of CAD 1.7 billion-CAD 1.9 billion, up from a range of CAD 1.15 billion-CAD 1.25 billion projected for 2022. This results in a five-year CAGR of 7%-10%.
The ranges account for the fact that our sell down strategies and targets are not yet finalized and outcomes can vary. Nonetheless, the key message of this slide is that we expect not only to increase our EBITDA, but more importantly, increase the quality of our cash flow as well. With the addition of these 20-25-year long-term contracted projects contributing to our financial results, we will also see an increase to the average contracted life over the next five years. Furthermore, we will be diversifying our cash flows as new projects come online. Of course, our larger pipeline has identified additional projects equating to over 10 GW of potential capacity as disclosed in our press release. These projects have the ability to drive even greater cash flow growth.
However, we conservatively are only reflecting capitalized projects, but do expect that every year we will be adding more capitalized projects to our balance sheet, thereby driving growth beyond what is reflected on this slide. Our doubling of growth in EBITDA target for 2030 is maintained as per our investor date last year. This year we have bifurcated our growth to show what's driven by capitalized projects, as these have a shorter time frame to achieving commercial operations. Capitalized projects are those projects that have either secured a long-term offtake agreement or grid interconnection rights, and have demonstrated economic viability and are moving towards achieving financial close. These projects are in an advanced state such that our costs will be substantially locked down, and project financing will be secured at financial close, expected in 2022 and 2023.
Our aspirations are ultimately to drive greater than 2x EBITDA growth to 2030 and beyond as the projects in our pipeline are advanced by our growth teams. This slide shows our illustrative funding plan over the next five years to support the capital requirements of our projects. We intend to secure approximately 65%-75% of the capital required, or CAD 9 billion-CAD 10 billion through new long-term non-recourse amortizing project debt. We will also target 100% of our future project financings to be green where possible.
Northland's equity requirements are expected to be approximately 10%-15% of the total capital required, or in the range of CAD 1 billion-CAD 2 billion, which will be funded through a combination of cash on hand, proceeds or non-recourse financings of our existing facilities, common equity, and sell downs of partial interest in some of the capitalized projects as they reach financial close. As a reminder, financial close is the point in time at which a project has secured full commitments from the project lenders, which is also the time at which equity is required to be funded. Typically, it is also the trigger point to start a project's construction. Almost all of our projects are already owned in strategic partnerships, either with local or existing partners who on average will contribute approximately 10%-15% or CAD 1 billion-CAD 2 billion of the total capital required.
Finally, we expect to use our corporate balance sheet capacity on a very limited basis to secure approximately CAD 1 billion of green corporate debt instruments, including potentially green hybrid debt to optimize funding, limit credit constraints, and enhance our returns. We believe that our funding plan is achievable and the overall principles are in line with how Northland has historically funded all of its growth projects and maintained its investment-grade credit rating. What will be new for Northland going forward is the execution of partial asset sell downs and securing green corporate debt, both of which are currently in the planning process for future execution. We believe there are diverse sources of capital available to Northland to execute on its funding plan, both at the corporate and asset level.
The changes from last year's funding plan relate to funding only the advanced stage capitalized projects which are on our balance sheet today. Any new projects added over time would follow the same funding philosophy. At last year's Investor Day, we discussed our sell down strategy being focused on selling down select partial interest in our projects as we achieve financial close and they are substantially de-risked. While this is still the primary objective, our thinking has evolved over the past 12 months in that we may also target to secure partners earlier than financial close on earlier stage development projects if the terms are satisfactory to Northland.
Sell-downs and flexibility on when and how we execute will enable us to meet our funding and capital recycling objectives, manage our jurisdictional exposures, crystallize some development profit upfront prior to or at financial close, enhance our free cash flow, liquidity position, and our project returns, among other benefits. Northland will assess each opportunity individually and intends to remain a long-term owner in all the renewable power projects we are developing globally. We are targeting to sell down between 25%-49% of our interest in the projects. Essentially, we are seeking minority interest partners as Northland intends to maintain governance and operating control. Furthermore, partners can also be strategic in that they may contribute to Northland's ability to strengthen local stakeholder relationships, among other benefits.
Our percentage ultimately sold down of a project will be driven by our considerations of all the spokes around the wheel shown on the slide, risk management, strategic nature of the partnership, value creation, and corporate liquidity. Based on available market comps, we believe as of today, we can enhance our project returns on average by 200-400 basis points for contracted offshore wind assets to drive towards strong returns on our equity deployed and an attractive spread to our cost of capital. In recent marketing we have done with institutional investors, there have been numerous questions about how and why partial asset-level sell downs enhance our returns in offshore wind, and how the results may appear within our financial statements as we pursue and execute on this strategy.
This slide, first introduced at last year's Investor Day, has been updated to show a sell down at 49% and focuses on the metrics that would be disclosed to the market in our public disclosures, including free cash flow and change in equity funding requirements, and free cash flow gains should we be successful on executing on such a sell down. We have also shown the illustrative example of a 25% sell down, and you can see that there are benefits of further reducing Northland's equity contribution and crystallizing the value up front in both scenarios. However, it will also reduce our absolute free cash flow contribution once operational over the long term. These trade-offs will be reviewed on an asset-by-asset basis to determine the optimal amount of timing and sell down.
For Northland, we also believe we can enhance our project returns by between 200-400 basis points for contracted offshore wind assets to drive toward our targeted returns on our equity deployed. One of our core objectives is to structure our funding program so that we can maintain our investment-grade credit rating. We do this by funding our growth investments first with 65%-75% non-recourse debt to at least match the PPA life, and longer where acceptable by lenders. Our other sources of capital are also selected and sized to maintain our investment-grade rating. Our quality, stability, and diversity of cash flows is also an important element of our rating, as is the fact that 95% of our revenues are contracted under long-term PPAs to highly creditworthy counterparties. We have always carried very little corporate debt on our balance sheet.
Over the last three years, our average corporate debt to EBITDA has averaged only 1.5x , as calculated by the rating agencies. This will be a consistent philosophy and approach as we fund future projects on a non-recourse basis, optimizing our corporate funding to support a strong balance sheet. Sustainable finance has been a core focus for Northland. Green financings have and will allow Northland to diversify and optimize additional sources of capital to fund growth while benefiting from strong support from financial institutions who have their own green balance sheet objectives. Our core objectives are to target 100% of all our project finance debt to be green where possible. Our first green project financings included New York Wind and Helios in Colombia. The latter was one of the first green financings in the country.
We are also targeting to maintain the sustainability-linked overlay over our CAD 1 billion revolving credit facility and meeting or exceeding our target KPIs. In the future, targeting to issue green bonds, including hybrids, which are well-supported by the rating agencies as a funding tool for our business and helps to optimize our corporate balance sheet. Moving on to near-term 2022 guidance. This morning, we released our financial guidance for 2022, including adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and adjusted free cash flow. I will focus on describing key elements of our guidance herein, as our press release has full details. For 2022, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of CAD 1.15 billion-CAD 1.25 billion. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase relative to the 2021 guidance range, primarily due to the following factors.
Higher contribution from the German offshore wind facilities as a result of a more normalized wind resource, offset partially by the impact from the Nordsee One main bearing assembly replacement campaign. Full contribution from the Spain portfolio compared to partial year contributions in 2021. Contribution from one-time asset management income from a natural gas facility optimization, and higher overall contribution from onshore renewables, efficient natural gas, and our EBSA utility. Factors partially offsetting the increase include significantly lower contributions from Iroquois Falls following the expiry of its original revenue contract at the end of 2021, and higher expected growth expenditures to advance Northland's projects, as well as higher corporate costs to support this growth.
For free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow, we have completed a variance bridge to our 2021 guidance range to provide some additional clarity on the number of items impacting our 2022 guidance midpoint. In 2021, our guidance included approximately CAD 0.35 per share of development expenditures, which funded several projects in a time period before they were successful in being awarded long-term PPA contracts such as Baltic Power and Suba in Colombia. This generates 2021 adjusted free cash flow guidance using the lower end of our guidance range, as discussed on our last quarterly conference call of CAD 1.65 per share. Our adjusted free cash flow guidance in 2022 is forecasted to increase to a range of CAD 1.65-CAD 1.85 per share, with a midpoint of CAD 1.75.
The CAD 0.30 per share of expected positive financial contribution from a normalized wind year in 2022, net of lost revenues at Nordsee One as a result of the main bearing replacements, and CAD 0.35 of enhanced operations and additional debt optimizations, is expected only to be partially offset by CAD 0.35 per share a loss from the Iroquois Falls contract and CAD 0.20 per share of higher cost to support our global growth in expanding into new regions as detailed within our press release. In 2022, we expect our development expenditures to amount to around CAD 0.45 per share to fund expenditures to advance the North Sea Cluster, Scotland, and our Japan and Korea strategies, in addition to others.
We believe adjusted free cash flow is an important metric, as while early-stage development expenditures reduce free cash flow in the near term, they are ultimately being invested into projects that are expected to deliver long-term sustainable growth in earnings and free cash flow. As a growth company with a significant pipeline of development projects, Northland is committed to unlocking value by deploying early-stage investment capital or DevEx to advance our projects. With the regional development offices fully functional and certain growth opportunities secured, we expect to incur higher development expenditures in 2022 relative to 2021. In addition, any gains from the future sell down of ownership interest in development assets would be included in free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow.
The 2022 guidance ranges disclosed today do not incorporate any sell down proceeds, and as such, net proceeds would increase reported free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow in the event that they occur in 2022. To conclude today's presentation, I have listed our team's objectives for 2022, which build on the numerous successes the team achieved in 2021. Our goals are to continue to diversify our sources of corporate capital to enhance our financing flexibility while maintaining our credit rating, execute on our ESG-related strategies and enhance reporting, execute on non-recourse project financings and refinancings as planned, which include achieving financial close on Hai Long in Taiwan and Suba in Colombia, finance debt and tax equity for our New York wind projects, Bluestone and Ball Hill, which are expected to achieve commercial operations in late 2022.
Complete the annual EPSA holdco up financing in late 2022, driven from growth in annual EBITDA. Continue to enhance our liquidity through financing optimizations, bring value forward on our development assets through planning for our first potential sell down. Lastly, finalize our preferred debt and equity hedging strategy for Hai Long and prepare for Baltic Power. It will be another busy year for the company, and we look forward to providing you with updates on our progress on our upcoming quarterly conference calls in 2022. Thank you for your time and interest in Northland. I will now turn it back over to Mike to conclude today's Investor Day.
Thanks, Pauline. Thank you all for your attention to our presentation today. We are very proud of what Northland has accomplished over the last year. As you can probably tell, we are very excited as so many of our projects that we've been working on are now approaching FID and construction, including three large offshore wind projects. We believe Northland is well-positioned to capitalize on a growing offshore and onshore renewables market in the years to come. We now look forward to your questions. Pauline and David will be here, of course, but we're also being joined now by Wendy Franks, our Executive Vice President, Investment Management and Strategy, and Morten Melin, our Executive Vice President, Construction. Okay. I think that's better now. Testing the sound. Is it working now? Yes?
Yes.
I apologize for the problems with the audio. I assume it's working now, and give me an indication if it's not, Wassem. Okay. We've got a question from Nelson Ng regarding the Iroquois Falls facility. The free cash flow bridge indicates a CAD 75 million-CAD 80 million drag. In the previous 2020 update, we expected CAD 75 million in EBITDA from those facilities, and the contribution is set to decline by 90%. The question from Nelson is, do we expect Iroquois Falls to operate in 2022? Yes. The facility is continuing to operate. Its grid connected, and we have been bidding for and securing short-term capacity contracts from the system operator in Ontario. Nelson's got another question.
For Hai Long, again, back to the COD date that we've got listed in as 2026, 2027, when the projects were initially announced several years ago, we were talking about 2024, 2025. What has changed on the timelines and the factors? In response to one of the other questions earlier, I'm not sure if that question answer came through, but the turbines do start coming online in 2025 for the first of the three projects. The three projects are being financed as one project. In terms of cash flow to Northland from Hai Long, that won't come until the last turbine is commissioned and all three projects are fully commissioned, which does not happen until currently we're expecting that to be in December of 2026.
Certainly, we'll call it fourth quarter 2026, first quarter 2027. The other thing I noted earlier too was on Hai Long, that we will be accumulating pre-completion revenues from when the first turbine starts generating electricity in 2025, and those pre-completion revenues accumulate and are used as a contribution towards the equity requirements for the projects, the funding of the project itself. Let me. I think Wassem, if you can guide me a bit. I'm gonna go back to the first few questions, which I understand the answers were not heard on. Is that correct, Wassem? I'll go back to Rupert's question on. Oh, maybe they're at the bottom of the queue now, let's just keep going. Okay, sounds good.
We'll make sure we get to all the questions. Nelson's got a question on Hai Long. Can you talk about the potential and your progress to obtain a corporate PPA on the 744 MW? That's on Hai Long 3 and Hai Long 2B, the two projects that secured offtake from Taipower in the auction back in 2016, 2017. We haven't disclosed anything to the market around a corporate PPA for those projects, and we don't have anything to disclose at this point. Nelson's got a question on Spain. Can you discuss the high-power price environment and how you are accounting for the impact on EBITDA and free cash flow? Will the 2023 Spanish revenues get adjusted downward?
We're gonna give a lot more color with our Q4 results later this month on how we will be accounting for the contribution from the Spanish assets, particularly in relation to what's gone on with the power prices, which were obviously much higher than anyone forecast for the second half of 2022, 2021 rather, and also continue to be higher than forecast. I think what we'll do is we'll wait to the Q4 results to really give you a deep dive. What I can say is it certainly does move up the cash flow much earlier for the project.
How it's accounted for is gonna be guided to some extent from what the regulator has directed to all producers and in the market, but we'll give more color on that with the Q4 results. Okay, let me just scroll back up to the top, Wassem. Okay, we'll start at the top again. Rupert has a question to give more color on preferred supplier agreements in Taiwan specifically on inflation protection. The preferred supplier agreements are for both the turbine scope and also for the balance of plant scope.
What it allowed us to do was to work closely with those two main suppliers as they sourced subcontractors locally to both meet local content obligations for those projects but also just to pull together a supply chain in Taiwan and in Asia as well. It gave us good visibility on pricing and options that were there. All of those costs will be locked down at financial close, which is targeted for Q3 of this year. There will be no exposure beyond that point to inflation. We've got pretty good visibility on cost at this point, given how close we are towards locking down both those contracts and all of the associated subcontracts.
Ben asked, I think I've answered this question from Ben, Wassem, right? On capital allocation towards gas-fired generation. Yeah, just a case just to [audio distortion]. Sure, I'll repeat it. Asking about capital allocation for gas-fired generation. We've already guided to the fact that we will not be investing any new capital in any new gas-fired or thermal generating facilities. We have signaled to the market that we would be open at some point over the next several years to divesting some or all of our gas-fired generation fleet, but we also do not feel obligated to do that either. They generate significant cash flow, which help fund the development of our larger offshore wind projects.
We always remind everybody that they were built to offset coal-fired generation in Ontario and in Saskatchewan. In their own right, in their time, they were decarbonizing assets as well. I'd leave that at that. With respect to the COD differences on Taiwan and Baltic Power between the press release and the slide deck, talked about this a bit already, but just to bring clarity to it. On Baltic Power, we'll have more precision around both project schedule and the exact timing of financial close when that will happen in 2023, later this year. We're guiding towards turbines coming online in 2025 and 2026.
The exact date of COD when the last turbine comes online will be determined by the final schedule, which is not yet set. On Hai Long, since financial close is in Q3 of this year, we do have much tighter precision on the schedule. The first turbines will start generating electricity in 2025, as I said in response to another question, and the last turbines across all three projects, and keep in mind it's being financed as one single financing across all three Hai Long projects. The last turbines will end up coming online in late 2026, and that's why we said 2026-2027. Call it Q4 2026, Q1 2027 when the last of the turbines come online and the entire project can declare COD.
Up until that point, any revenue generated from the turbines that have come online between 2025 and late 2026 would go towards pre-completion revenues, which are an offset on the capital cost of the project. The contribution from the project doesn't come to Northland until late 2026, early 2027, once all turbines are online. I think I've already answered Rupert's question on. Yeah, let's skip down here. Nelson asked, Nelson Ng is asking about the higher DevEx and G&A costs for 2022, which is on top of an increase that came in 2021. Nelson is asking what's the current run rate and which geographies are we seeing the largest increases in both for 2022. A couple of things.
G&A is a bit of a lag to project development. In other words, as we acquire and develop and construct projects, a good chunk of the G&A cost to manage the accounting and the operations and the oversight of those facilities lags behind the actual development of them. As you know, over the last several years, Northland's had substantial growth, adding three large offshore wind facilities in Europe and recently adding the Spanish portfolio of operating assets, as well as a number of other smaller assets that we've either brought online or brought into construction over the last few years. We would see number one, the G&A follows that, increases and follows that to manage a much larger company, which Northland is now.
We would see some scale benefits coming in the next year or two, and see any increases in G&A start to level off as we put together a presence in Europe, a presence in Asia, and a presence in North America and LatAm to manage the assets that we now have operating. On the DevEx, there's a bit of a question of timing there. In 2021, there are some costs that were anticipated to be incurred on DevEx in 2021 that ended up moving largely from kind of Q4 or Q3 and Q4 into Q1, Q2 of 2022.
In terms of how we budget for DevEx, our DevEx from a budgeting standpoint was pretty much flat in 2021 and 2022, and we'd anticipate certainly it remaining that way going forward. We wouldn't see any increases. The increase that you're seeing, it's more a question of timing from 2021-2022, with some costs pushed from 2021 into 2022, just simply due to the timing of how quickly some of the development projects progressed. Rupert's got a question on debt financing over the next few years, and I'll just put my microphone on mute and turn it over to Pauline on that question.
Hopefully everyone, you know, obviously, we have since last year really targeted an approach to optimize the finance of our renewable power projects. I think that what I can say here is that we continue to see opportunities, additional opportunities beyond what's been executed today to optimize either the financings or the terms and conditions of the financings to release additional liquidity or achieve actual additional proceeds as well. It's tough today to provide a number of what we think we can accomplish over the next five years, just that we are very targeted and focused on this element of the financing plan.
Okay. Thanks, Pauline. From Sean Steuart at TD, we've got the timing of Hai Long CODs extended from 2025 to 2026, the timing that was provided last year. Can you please comment on how supply chain congestion and/or cost inflation has resulted in timing slippage for Hai Long or other projects? I can certainly confirm, Sean, that none of that change in timing is a result of anything to do with the supply chain constraints on Hai Long. Indeed, it's a bit about how I described earlier. It's a bit of looking at how when the turbines are gonna come online and when the last turbine actually will come online, number one.
Number two, it's also looking at as well looking at getting more precision on the schedule. We've put together what we think is a prudent schedule for a project of that scale in a new market for Northland to build in, but also a new market for offshore wind in general. We've put into that schedule a significant buffer between the different campaigns to make sure that we have certainty that we can deliver on the construction program, and that obviously we can give that confidence to our lenders as well. Matt Taylor's got a question. Could you provide more color on the CAD 600 million of EBITDA from the capitalized backlog?
Is that net of or gross, and does it include any sell downs or implied multiple as a few turns higher than where you were trading today? I'll [crosstalk].
Sure.
Turn that over to Pauline. I'll just mute myself.
I think in the presentation, our EBITDA guidance for this year is CAD 1.15 billion-CAD 1.25 billion, and we showed that increasing to CAD 1.7 billion-CAD 1.9 billion by 2027. The reason for the ranges is because our sell down plans are not yet finalized, so we provided ranges to show what could ultimately occur. Obviously, things may change, but I think that is a good range to provide at this time.
Okay. Naji , as the offshore wind industry matures and we start to see more zero or even negative subsidy projects commission, how do you see this impacting your market, your approach to the market? It's a great question. As you know, with the North Sea Cluster, it's a 1.3 GW project. Again, similar to Hai Long, there are three distinct projects, adjacent projects there, but in total, it's 1.3 GW. We exercised our step-in rights this past year, in the fall of 2021, to secure the interconnection for Nordsee Two, and we anticipate doing the same thing for the Delta and the Nordsee Three project in 2023 when those auctions come up. That will secure interconnection on those three projects.
The Stevin, right, this past year was at a zero subsidy. We don't know what it will be in 2023, but, our, I mean, our modeling assumption, our working assumption for now is that it will be at a zero subsidy. That's one of the reasons why we are partnering with RWE on these projects to work with them to source corporate offtake, utility offtake in Germany and in Europe using their energy trading platform that they have as one of the largest utilities in Europe. That is certainly a big part of how we're looking at offshore wind going forward in Europe, certainly in Germany, is securing corporate offtake.
I would say, we've watched with interest as offtakers like BASF have entered into 20- and 25-year offtakes recently. We think for a lot of large corporates in Europe, it is gonna be a first and a very relatively easy step towards meeting their net zero targets to contract over the long term for offshore wind. The advantage of offshore wind versus onshore certainly is the volume of energy that you can contract for a large consumer of power such as BASF in that instance. I think also, offtakers are also looking at the volatility in energy prices or power prices in Europe, both current and anticipated volatility going forward and rising prices.
I think that creates a good market for us to go out and source corporate PPAs for the North Sea Cluster and also for other projects going forward. We've established a corporate offtake origination group based out of London, focused not just on offshore, but also on our onshore projects as well. Naji got another question: As you think about corporate contracting and managing merchant power exposure, how will that impact your financing structure for strategy for projects going forward, i.e., for example, rather corporate debt capacity? Couple of thoughts on that, and I'll turn it over to Pauline, see if she has anything to add to that as well. One overall comment is, first and foremost, we are still looking for long-term, government-backed contracts where they're available.
That certainly is part of what's attractive about Hai Long, and about the Baltic Power projects. Even for the Suba Projects in Colombia, the offtakers are regulated utilities for that PPA. We are actively sourcing and pursuing high quality offtakes, government offtakes. New York is the same thing. The NYSERDA 20-year PPA for the projects that we're developing and constructing in New York as well. We think there's a good opportunity with growing demand from corporates for renewable power, and we've really seen a surge in the last year and a half.
We have not only built building the capacity to originate and source those corporate offtakes for our projects, and again, not just for new development projects, but also looking at as a way to secure revenue streams for projects as they come off of their original PPAs or subsidy contracts as well. That's part of the rationale behind setting up that capacity based out of London, as I said, that we have now. That group is also responsible for how we manage any residual merchant exposure around the periphery of any corporate offtakes, which sometimes does exist. It doesn't always exist. In some corporate offtakes, they're 100% take or pay. It depends. I'd leave that on that.
I think we're seeing lenders willing to lend on the back of a corporate PPA. I don't know if there's anything else you'd add to that, Pauline.
That we put out there today does include financing corporate offtakes. The overall funding philosophy remains very much aligned with, you know, funding long-term government contracts. We're seeing, you know, obviously the depth and support by the lending market for that. You know, as Mike mentioned, we have targeted Hai Long, Suba, and eventually the North Sea Cluster, and expect all of those to have corporate contracts as part of our overall revenue offtake and a financing plan to support that.
Mark from CIBC is asking about the Hai Long CapEx. We're showing in this year's presentation CAD 7 billion-CAD 8 billion, whereas last year's presentation would've implied closer to CAD 6 billion when you back out some other projects in New York Wind projects. A couple of things on that. One, we have more precision at this point than we did last year around project costs, including around the cost of meeting local content or the increased cost of meeting local content obligations on Hai Long 2A.
As we've described on the Hai Long projects in general, whereas the CapEx has probably come in a bit higher than what we had originally anticipated, there have been other benefits to the project, including on OpEx, on production, and some other elements where we've been able to offset the impact of some of those CapEx increases. The other piece that I would say too is that I mentioned this earlier, that it is a large project, 1,044 MW. The first turbines come online in 2025, and the last turbines don't come online until the end of 2026. So that's, as I said earlier, when COD would be declared and when the contribution starts coming to Northland.
All of that revenue, the pre-completion revenues that's generated by all those turbines that are coming online, over that nearly 18-month period would go towards offsetting or would contribute towards the cost of the project. That's the other thing to consider. Okay. I've got from Naji on Hai Long, can you give us an update on how the financing is going? Can you provide any color on how the negotiations are advancing and what kind of pushback, if anything, you're getting from lenders around any specific concerns? At this stage of the financing, we can certainly say that it is going as expected, and that there is a lot of interest from lenders in the financing.
As you know, in general, there's been a lot of interest in lenders to finance offshore wind overall, but in particular, larger projects that are underpinned by long-term offtakes. Naji's asking, where do you see the best opportunities to partner with other players on new projects, such as RWE or EDF, RWE for offshores we've done with the North Sea Cluster, EDF on onshore. We were always open to partner, and I think what we're looking at is another good example is what we've done in Poland with Baltic Power, right? Where PKN ORLEN, the oil and gas major in Poland, is our partner on that project.
In that case, we're partnering with an entity that is very knowledgeable of the Polish market, obviously, and brings something to the table that we clearly would not have as a new entrant into the Polish market. With RWE, as I stated earlier, not only is there a great synergy between their Delta Project and the Nordsee Two and Nordsee Three projects, which we were the majority investor in, owner of, but there's also a great opportunity to leverage their energy marketing platform in Germany and indeed throughout Europe, to be able to market the energy from the North Sea Cluster. For each opportunity, we look for something different, and with Suba in Colombia, what we, t hey had been developing a project, and they needed a partner to move forward. There was a benefit to partnering with us through EBSA with EBSA's taxable income. Each project and each opportunity is different, but we're always conscious in any market, particularly outside of Canada, to make sure that we pick a partner who can put us in an advantageous position, both in terms of securing opportunities, but also in terms of managing risk. Okay. Sean's got another question to Pauline. Maybe I'll read it, and then Pauline can answer it. Can you please provide context on the process for securing development project sell downs?
Is the process formalized to invite multiple interested parties and have, how far in advance does the process start?
Sure. Thanks, Sean, for the question. You know, unofficially, I think our process started about two years ago in the sense that we have had multiple meetings and conversations with many potential partners around the globe about, you know, the pipeline that we knew we were building. Now that we are approaching financial close on our projects, obviously those conversations are a lot more advanced. However, we do intend to run formalized process for our first sell downs, you know, which are planned for in the next couple of years.
I will say that I think for large offshore wind projects that are set to achieve financial close, the process probably starts six-eight months ahead of financial close, which also aligns with the project finance process, because those two processes have to be fairly aligned through the entire period. I would say that, you know, for us it's about finding a like-minded partner and also partners that could be strategic to us in other areas, in addition to just considering the financial elements of a transaction. We hope to progress with some of the parties that we have been speaking with for a fairly long time.
Okay. Andrew's got a great question. Can you please outline some of the technological improvements in offshore wind that are not within your base case scenarios, but could provide additive to production or help reduce OpEx or CapEx? I'm gonna turn this over to Morten in one minute.
The one thing I would say, which is not additive to our base case, but is what we've benefited certainly on Hai Long from what was our original base case, is moving from an 8-MW turbine, which is what the project was originally designed for or assumed, to a 14-MW turbine, which is what is currently being contemplated and will be deployed on the project. That just gives you a sense of just how much offshore wind turbines have scaled up just from when we entered that project and bid in to secure our revenue contracts with Taipower to present. That's one example of just how fast things are progressing in offshore wind. I'll turn it over to Morten, see if he has any other color on that question.
Thank you, Andrew, and thank you, Mike, for the question. Can everybody hear me all right? I guess yes. Good. Thank you. I got a confirmation. Yes, it was. Aside from the turbine and the increase in size and the increase in yield that we see from the new turbine technologies, there are several factors that are sort of being added into that equation as well, such as high wind cut-through, where some of the turbines can actually perform at a higher wind speed as what would normally be seen before they cut out.
These are the small tweaks and twists that the turbine vendors they make to the turbines that if we push them, we can sometimes get them to have them as part of the base case, or sometimes they're being introduced to us as add-ons that would come for a price. That's all part of the negotiations. One important thing to say on the OpEx part is that the increase in our portfolio and the focus on the strategic work that we're doing right now on becoming also sort of taking more responsibility in the asset management across the portfolio, gives us also quite some leverage in order to optimize on the OpEx. Over time, potentially also that would have an impact on the availability and thereby also on the yield improvements.
I'm not sure that, if that answered the question, completely. Just on foundations and other parts of the offshore wind farms, the evolution on technology is not necessarily that significant. I see what we will have as the next step will be when we start venturing into the Scotland project, sort of for real, and finalizing the design of the offshore floating foundations that we have to put into operations at the better part of the decade.
Thanks, Morten. The next question is from Matt Taylor. On Spain, can you quantify my comment about seeing results better than underwritten assumptions and provide a bit of color on my view around the region in terms of development and M&A, particularly in light of what's gone on with the clawback by regulators. To be clear, the clawback that was, I guess, introduced by regulators last year in response to very high energy prices or the run-up in energy prices in Spain did not affect our assets. Our assets are under a regulated tariff regime. They were not impacted by that.
I believe there was a bit of a compromise, I guess, that was arrived at in the end, on the assets that were actually affected by the regulators, which would have been merchant assets or those under a corporate offtake, as opposed to the regulated scheme that our assets are governed by. A couple of things on kind of what we've seen on Spain since we closed in August. We've done a much deeper dive into the assets. Our head of renewables, onshore renewables, relocated to Madrid for basically 18 months. He'll be there for at least another year to make sure that we onboarded all of the people and all of the facilities well.
He has been around to see just about all of the facilities himself, and we've had people out looking at all of the facilities that we acquired. I would say that they're in even better shape than we had expected, and they have also performed better in terms of availability. I think even as high as 99% availability on one of the larger facilities. That is one example of kinda how they've done better than what our underwritten assumptions were on those assets. We'll talk more about how we're accounting for the impact of the higher energy prices and how that works with the regulated tariff scheme in Spain with our Q4 results later this month.
In terms of kinda tuck-in and growth opportunities, there's some interesting opportunities. There's certainly gonna be a lot of new renewables built out in Spain in the coming years. We've got a head of M&A who's just started there working out of our Madrid office with our new managing director there and our new finance director there, who's looking at both M&A tuck-in opportunities, but also development opportunities as well by partnering with some developers. We're seeing increased interest in corporate offtake driven by the volatility and the run-up in energy prices over the last eight-nine months.
There's also opportunities around hybridization, which means adding usually solar capacity to existing wind or solar sites by leveraging the interconnection capacity that you have by adding more generating capacity to it. That's something that the team is working on right now in Spain. Mark's got a question. Mark Jarvi from CIBC. PKN ORLEN recently announced plans to develop 7 GW of additional offshore wind projects in the Baltic Sea. Is Northland gonna be a partner on any of these potential projects? I'd just say this, that we're very interested, and we've said this before, in offshore wind in the Baltic in general, whether it's Polish offshore wind or some of the Baltic states that are also pursuing offshore wind procurement processes in the years to come.
It's something that we're very interested in pursuing, but we've got nothing to talk about it at this point in time. Ken's got a question. Can you expand on Spain? Do you see opportunity for further M&A, or is this primarily an organic opportunity from this point? Definitely we see Spain as a platform. If you look at what we've done in onshore renewables overall, we've now established three platforms, and we're seeking to establish a fourth platform for our onshore renewables. In Colombia, we acquired EBSA, a distribution utility, which had grandfathered rights, which basically allows that utility to invest in generation, transmission as well, not just within its territory, but also all across Colombia. It's got taxable income too. The, w e saw that as a good platform to pursue renewables and basically put us on an equal footing with any domestic developer of renewables in Colombia. That's how we're kinda creating a competitive position in Colombia as it sets out to, we think, over the coming years, deploy a lot of wind and solar. Probably the one laggard in Latin America in terms of adopting solar and wind and then integrating it in with their grid, but that's all changing now, so we wanna be part of that growth. In the Northeast of the U.S., we developed our own on-the-ground development team in New York to develop not just wind, but solar projects in New York and beyond in the Northeast. In Spain is this similar thesis b y acquiring a platform, it immediately made us a top ten operator of renewable power in Spain, which creates some synergies or some opportunities to tuck in single or small portfolios of existing operating assets, as well as to pursue development assets. Again, it puts us in a competitive posture and makes us more like a domestic competitor as opposed to a foreign investor in Spain. That's certainly in Spain, our intent is to invest more in the years to come, as we see a lot of opportunity over the next several years in Spain. Sam Wilson's got a question. What global supply chain challenges do you foresee, and do you and your development partners have strategies in place to mitigate these? We, a s I mentioned in the presentation at the beginning, we've set up in the last year a global procurement group based out of Amsterdam in that case, which is charged with both offshore and onshore procurement. A couple of things that we're doing. One is being much more proactive with key suppliers, making them aware of our project pipeline much earlier than we typically would have in the past, and building up those relationships and developing those relationships so that we can be more assured that we can secure supply. The thing that you want in a tightening market for supply is volume.
For offshore wind, that's what we have, and increasingly for onshore renewables as well across the three platforms I talked about and some of the stuff that we're doing in EU, Eastern Europe. We're now starting to develop a good volume of opportunities for suppliers both in onshore and offshore wind, and we're looking to leverage that. Mark Jarvi from CIBC: With sell downs, can you finance all of NPI's equity needs for the capitalized projects without external equity? I'll turn that over to Pauline.
Thanks for the question, Mark. As we stated in the pie chart that we showed during the formal presentation piece, you know, the CAD 1 billion-CAD 2 billion of equity will be funded from a combination of different sources, being cash on hand, being non-recourse debt financings, being common equity, being selldown. I think that's the answer that we have at this stage. Obviously, as we have success, we'll be able to update and provide some more precision on that part of the funding.
Okay. I think I missed this question from Sean. This is for David, so I'll read it, David, and you can answer it. Northland has owned the Spanish onshore portfolio for a few quarters now. Can you give some more detail on the process towards building out an organic development platform on the back of that acquisition?
Yeah. Thanks, Mike. I think you've probably covered much of that before. The first step was to, as Mike referred to before, find an additional team in Madrid who's now specifically focused on that. I think what we expected is turning out to be true, that now we have a position in the market, we're actually seeing a lot more transactions that perhaps as an outsider, you don't actually see. The team's having a lot of incoming inquiries. We've had a look at a couple of them. Nothing to report at this point, but I'm pretty positive in terms of the volume of transactions that are coming forward, that we'll see something later in the year. Good volume coming through at the moment.
Okay. Now Matt Taylor's got another question. On your sell down strategy, you said you wanted to keep control of 51%+ , on projects. However, we saw your deal with North Sea Cluster leaves you with 49% ownership. Can you help us understand what was different about that transition and whether we would see similar willingness to move outside your sell down target? To be clear, I think you got to separate economic interest in governance. North Sea Cluster is 51% RWE, 49% Northland. But the governance on the cluster is balanced or unanimous. In other words, the 51% doesn't imply any greater say in the governance or the decision-making with respect to the development of that cluster.
RWE is certainly the dominant utility or the largest utility in Germany. We looked at every which way we modeled the North Sea Cluster was gonna be around 50/50, and just acknowledging their position in Germany, we decided on a 51%-49% ownership, but with balanced governance. I wouldn't read too much into that 51%-49%. Moving on to Rupert's question, if you are looking for minority interest partners for a co-investment or asset sell downs, does that tend to steer towards financial partners and not industry partners?
Is there a material difference in the returns that a financial partner are seeking relative to the returns demanded by a strategic or investor or an asset operator? In terms of our partnering strategy, it does vary. In some cases, as you can see how we enter a market, we sometimes seek to have a partner who can help guide us through that market like we did with PKN ORLEN in Poland, as we talked about earlier. As we advance projects in certain markets, such as with the Chiba or the Izumi Project in Japan, we brought Tokyo Gas into that project.
As the project matured, that came through a sell down by our partner, not by us, but it was part of the strategy of building out what we thought would be a, what will be a winning or a competitive consortium in the Japanese market. There is always gonna be some strategic decisions like that are made to bring in a partner, to either manage risk, you know, give market intelligence or help advance the project in some other way.
We are also looking, as Pauline talked about, doing sell downs closer to financial close and even at COD, possibly, but certainly closer to financial close, which would primarily be to an investor looking at that asset and looking to Northland to be the asset manager or at least with our current partner to be the asset manager. I think that those are the two different buckets of partnerships that we'd be looking at entering into. There's probably some gradation in between the two of them as we move forward, but those are the two main buckets. Okay, Brent, what are the expected returns in the Hai Long projects at the CapEx range provided pre any farm down assumptions?
What we've said to the market is that we expect to be at the returns at our expected returns when we bid into the auctions and we submitted into the feed-in tariff process back in 2016, 2017. On those projects, we expect to arrive at similar returns once we reach financial close and once we reach COD, with some of that being achieved through a sell down. Nick asks in the 2021 Investor Day slide had the 2021 Investor Day slide identified projects leading to CAD 2.5 billion+ in EBITDA. The 2022 slides show by 2030 that EBITDA will be CAD 2.2 billion. Is the difference capturing a sell down happening or has there been a change in economics?
I'll just turn that over to Pauline to take that one.
Sure. Just to clarify, that is our long-term guidance, that we put out every Investor Day, and we will update that annually for changes in the underlying portfolio or economics or expectations around the project. That number will continue to be updated, and you should expect that it will change as we get more clarity on the projects or timing or which projects are going to advance the financial close and when. However, there was one difference between last year's Investor Day and this year's numbers that were shown. Last year, we showed only the impact of growth. We ignored the rest of our operating portfolio.
We just showed the chart was a little bit different because it just showed what each growth project delivers. Here we did a consolidated forecast, including, you know, our entire operating portfolio layering on the growth project. It's a more accurate number for the entire business. I hope that clarifies your question.
Okay.
Okay.
Question from Ken: Can you comment on the makeup of the 5.9 GW of additional growth projects included in the project inventory? The total is 4.4 GW-4.5 GW in our pipeline that we've disclosed with our guidance today. At the back end, there is 5.9 GW, which is beyond our capitalized, beyond our in-construction, and beyond our identified projects. I'll turn it over to David Povall to give a bit of color around that back end of the pipeline and what color he'd want to give on that and the split between onshore and offshore, roughly.
Yeah, no, I can add a little bit more color on that to the question. The answer is in the target markets that we referred to earlier. As we ran through the onshore markets, you will see in some of that number additional growth in onshore in the U.S. Northeast, particularly in New York. Again, those projects are not listed in the upper half of that table that I showed on the earlier slide. Certainly, there's some onshore in there. There's also a significant amount of offshore. We see further growth in Asia. Early stage opportunities. We've talked about the Taiwan Round 3. Again, that's in there. There's some further growth in Korea as well.
A mixture of the onshore and offshore. Most of it is certainly offshore, but all of it's in those target markets that we referred to earlier.
Okay, thanks, David. Ben's back again with another question, follow-up. Do the pre-completion revenues count to the equity, or is that in the debt? Any directional sense of return uplift on clustering projects, such as RWE? Let me start with the third one. Any directional free cash flow growth that we give over the next five years? Let me turn to question three, and if you wanted to comment on question one to Pauline, is that all right?
I think it counts partially towards equity. That's its excess pre-completion revenues that count towards equity. The one comment I'd make towards that is that, you know, when you look at financings in Europe, you know, well-established market lenders compared to, you know, Asia, which is a market that is still developing. I mean, I think our financing Hai Long will be one of the largest project financings in that market. I think some of these terms will be finalized and negotiated and determined as we move along in the project finance. I don't wanna give an answer based on Europe.
I think that we will be able to provide more clarity on the terms of our project finance as we move forward with it over the next several months.
Okay. The second question was any sense of the uplift on clustering with RWE? Directionally, I'd say it's material, and that's one of the attractions for both of us for entering into this joint development agreement across the three projects. It covers both in terms of construction, but actually more principally in terms of operations and of the three projects once they're built. It's substantial and with the weighting more towards the benefit on the operations. There is substantial benefits on procurement and mobilization of construction as well. Which feeds into, I think, Mark's question, which is can we give a rough estimate on the OpEx benefit from moving to larger turbines? I guess on, I thought this was on Hai Long, but on our offshore wind projects in general. I don't have a kind of an estimate of the benefit, but I could say it is substantial and aligned with what I said on North Sea Cluster. Any synergies or optimizations that you can get on operations is significant on offshore wind projects because you get a much more efficient use of vessels. Just thinking of Hai Long, moving from an 8-MW turbine to a 14-MW turbine, and the reduction in the total number of turbines that you have to service results in a material benefit in terms of operating costs. Andreas, will we share the presentation with attendees? Yes.
We're gonna share the presentation and the playback of the presentation as well. Both the deck and the playback will be shared on our website. I think we're done on questions? Great. Okay. Well, thank you very much, everybody, for your attention today. We appreciate all of the questions and apologize for some of the technical difficulties at the beginning. As I said, we've scrambled to a new location as we dealt with the power outage at the last minute at our office this morning. Appreciate your patience and, of course, your attention today. Thank you.