Good morning and good afternoon to everybody in Europe. Welcome to Northland Power's 2025 Investor Day. Thank you for joining us in the room and on the webcast. My name is Adam Beaumont, the Head of Capital Markets at Northland. On behalf of the team, we look forward to providing you with an update on the business and our new strategy going forward. Today's presentation is being recorded and will be available on our website. Before we begin, we want to remind participants that all figures presented are in CAD unless otherwise stated. To caution that information presented and responses and questions may contain forward-looking assumptions and are subject to various risks. Actual risks may differ materially from management's expected results. Please read the forward-looking statements section of this morning's press release and be guided by the contents when making investment decisions.
We acknowledge the land we are on today is the traditional territory of nations including the Mississaugas of the Credit, the Anishinabeg, the Chippewa, the Haudenosaunee, the Wendat Peoples, and is now home to many diverse people. We also acknowledge the Treaty 13 with the Mississaugas of the Credit. The presentation today will begin with Christine Healy, President and CEO, who will be joined by Ian Pierce, our Board Chair, and members of the leadership team: Jeff Hart, Pierre-Emmanuel Frot, Toby Edmonds, and Calvin McCormick. The presentation will be for two hours, including a 15-minute break. At the conclusion of the formal presentation, we will have a question-and-answer session where those in the room can ask questions and those online as well. Equity research analysts and investors are welcome to join us for an executive roundtable discussion following lunch starting at 12:45 P.M.
Thank you very much for being here. With that, I will turn it to Madison Goshani, one of Northland's rising talent, to provide a safety moment. Madison.
Good morning. Before we begin our formal presentation, we will start with a brief safety moment on building evacuation procedures. In the event of an emergency, the Globe and Mail Centre is equipped with alert tones. There are no planned alarms for today. If you hear these tones, please stand by and prepare to evacuate the building. One ping indicates there is an alarm condition in the building but does not impact this floor. Continuous tones indicate there is an alarm activated that will require evacuation. In the event of building evacuation, please follow these safety procedures. Leave the floor via the stairwells located on the south side of the floor. Do not carry items such as coffee cups, purses, or backpacks down stairwells during evacuation. Do not attempt to use the elevators. Once you have exited the building, proceed south to David Crombie Park and await further instruction.
In the event of a medical emergency, there is a defibrillator located on the 16th floor as well as the ground floor of the building. Of course, our Northland team is here to provide you with any support you may need. Covering off a few final housekeeping reminders, washrooms are located on either side of the elevators and signage is located on the walls to help guide you. We are serving light snacks during break and grab-and-go lunch following the conclusion of today's presentation. Coffee, tea, and refreshments are available at the south side bar. Now, I'd like to welcome our President and CEO, Christine Healy, to the stage.
Thank you. Good morning, everyone. It is good to be here with you today. This has been a year of real progress at Northland and also a year of real challenges. We have made difficult decisions, we have navigated unexpected developments, and we have worked through them with one clear purpose: to strengthen Northland and put the company on a more sustainable footing for the long term. Since joining in late January, I have had the opportunity to see firsthand how we operate, meeting our people, our investors, our partners, our suppliers, our communities. What I have seen reinforces my confidence in this company: the strength of our operations, our ability to execute world-class projects, and the depth of expertise across our teams. This capability, combined with our international reach, positions us to deliver. Our focus is clear. We deliver on what is in front of us.
We strengthen the business, and from that solid foundation, we build value for shareholders. At Northland, we bring a proven track record of delivering projects and operating assets across multiple technologies and markets. We are diversified across technologies: onshore and offshore wind, solar, natural gas-fired power, and grid-scale battery storage, supported by 3.5 gigawatts in operation and 2.2 gigawatts in construction. More than 95% of our revenue is contracted, giving us revenue stability. We have a legacy of execution that comes from our leadership. Every day, our people deliver safely, reliably, and with discipline. This foundation is key. It gives us the ability to deliver and the confidence to strengthen the business for the long term. Northland generates and stores electricity in several markets. Let me take a moment to talk about how we build and operate our facilities because this is core to how we deliver.
First, renewable generation. Our onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar-powered facilities generate clean electricity when the resource is available. Output can, of course, be variable, and we plan and operate accordingly. We manage this variability through two levers. The first for us is operational readiness. We ensure that we are available so that when the wind blows or the sun shines, we are ready to capture it. Our other lever is geographic diversification. By operating in different regions, we balance risk of low resource in one geography with higher resource in another, smoothing production across the portfolio. We also have 700 megawatts of natural gas-fired plants, both simple cycle and combined cycle. These facilities were originally built for baseload, but their function has changed, and now they operate as peaker plants to respond to times the system needs dispatchable, available power.
This reflects our view at Northland and, frankly, the reality of our markets, that natural gas remains a key part of the energy mix for decades to come, particularly in Canada, where natural gas resources are abundant and responsibly produced. Natural gas is an affordable, reliable part of a clean, balanced energy grid. We have also expanded into grid-scale battery storage. These facilities provide fast response during demand surges and enhance grid stability. They are an excellent complement, particularly in systems reliant on renewables. This multi-technology approach sets Northland apart. While many peers focus on one or two verticals, our ability to combine renewables, storage, and flexible gas gives us resilience, optionality, and a more stable platform for long-term value. We'll talk more about that later, but I want to pause here to talk about safety because it's a core value at Northland and it is our highest priority.
One of the first things I did this year was safety site visits at our project sites and operating facilities around the world. I have been able to see firsthand the strength and importance of our safety culture. I am proud to share with you two examples from this year that reflect our commitment. Our regulated utility in Colombia, EBSA, was awarded first place at the 16th National Electrical Rodeo. You might not know what an electrical rodeo is, but this is a competition in Colombia where operators from different companies compete on technical capabilities and safety. If you are the fastest, but it is unsafe, you cannot win. You have to be good and you have to be safe. The event brought together teams from across the country to share best practices, exchange knowledge, and foster nationwide collaboration. We took first place.
We are also the founders of this competition in Colombia, and we are proud of this accomplishment. Our Oneida Energy Storage Facility, which is highlighted out in the hallway when you're getting your coffee here in Ontario, Canada, was awarded a safety award by the Ontario Electrical Safety Authority as a champion of change. The award recognizes that our safety-first mindset from before day one of construction resulted in zero lost-time incidents. This is a record we are extremely proud of. They told me they were leaving me a glass here, so now I found it. I do want to say a few words about sustainability because at Northland, we are committed to lowering emissions intensity across our portfolio. This has been a part of our strategy for many years, and it continues to guide our decisions as energy systems evolve.
As long-standing experts in clean power, advancing renewables is a core part of the global energy mix that Northland can play a key role in. We continue to grow our renewable generation footprint, onshore and offshore wind, solar, and storage, which remain central to energy transition. At the same time, we understand the importance of a balanced, reliable energy mix, and our diversified portfolio allows us to support decarbonization while ensuring the grid remains stable and affordable. We also help corporate customers meet their emissions goals by supplying them the clean electricity to support their decarbonization commitments. As energy demand continues to grow, natural gas remains an essential transition fuel for decades to come. We will continue to pursue new natural gas opportunities because they enhance system reliability and meet customer needs. They also match our sustainability goals.
We do this because it's necessary for a resilient grid, and it is fully aligned with our commitment to sustainability. Let's talk about where we are today. Northland, as many of you know, has a strong history. I joined this company in large part because of its track record of delivering meaningful projects in Canada and around the world, and because of the strength and commitment of its people. This year, we have made important progress to strengthen our foundation and our strategic position. Earlier this year, after I joined as CEO, we welcomed Jeff Hart as CFO and Ian Pierce as Chair of the Board. Jeff brings broad experience in financial leadership and capital markets, including serving as CFO at two large Canadian energy companies.
Ian brings more than 40 years of global experience in engineering, project execution, and executive leadership, including COO and CEO in major resource organizations. With these leadership changes, we've remained focused on executing our three major projects under construction, a clear demonstration of both execution capacity and discipline across our teams. We successfully delivered Oneida, Canada's largest battery energy storage project, ahead of schedule, under budget, zero lost-time incidents. In Poland and Taiwan, we continue to advance our two large offshore wind projects. As we discussed last week, the commissioning of the Hailong project has progressed slower than anticipated, but the project remains on track for completion in 2027. More detail on that will be provided later this morning. Our strategy is focused and disciplined. We are sharpening capital allocation, and we are prioritizing projects that offer the best execution and the best returns.
Recent examples include our acquisition of two ready-to-build battery storage projects in Poland announced earlier this morning, and the development of Colosard, a small natural gas facility in Alberta you'll hear a bit more about later. We'll talk about both of these projects today, as well as many of the other projects being advanced within Northland. These are projects delivering high value, aligned with our strategy of deepening in our core markets. These investments reflect our commitment to strengthening the business and positioning Northland for reliable long-term growth. Before we move forward, I want to speak briefly about our announcement last week regarding the dividend. I know that this has impacted many of our long-term shareholders. As I said last week, and I will say again, this was not an easy decision. We evaluated a full range of alternatives, including debt financing, asset recycling, equity issuance, and an enhanced strip.
Over the five-year planning period, with our most current price forecasts and availability forecasts, we could see that our payout ratio was averaging around 90%. Against that backdrop and with large construction projects still underway, we saw that it was prudent to maintain a strong balance sheet and preserve flexibility until the projects are complete. At the same time, we see attractive, accretive growth opportunities in front of us, and we want to be in a position to pursue them responsibly. Ultimately, this is the right decision for Northland Power. It allows us to maintain balance sheet resilience, reduce reliance on volatile capital markets, and allocate capital towards the best opportunities for long-term value. Throughout this process, our purpose, my purpose, our collective purpose has remained the same: to deliver the best value for shareholders over the long term.
Everything we're laying out today reflects that purpose and positions Northland to move forward with discipline and strength. In recent months, we have identified value-accretive opportunities, and we've brought two of them into our portfolio. Earlier this morning, we announced the acquisition of two late-stage battery storage projects in Poland. This year, we also added Colosard, a small natural gas project in Alberta that will provide reliable, flexible generation. Toby and Calvin will give you more information about these projects shortly. Beyond these new investments, we're advancing several value enhancement initiatives across our existing fleet. This focus on uplifting the value of the assets we already own is something I've prioritized since I arrived here at Northland, and you'll hear more about these opportunities throughout the day. Before jumping right into it, I'd like to welcome Ian Pierce, our Chair of the Board, to share a few remarks.
Thank you, Christine. Christine joined Northland earlier this year and brings over 25 years of senior leadership experience in energy and infrastructure development across different regions. Since joining, she has focused on enhancing execution, increasing operational discipline, and refining strategic priorities. These initiatives are currently underway, and the Board is monitoring progress against these defined objectives. As Christine noted, the Board approved an adjustment to our dividend policy last week to improve financial flexibility and align capital allocation with current market conditions and our growth pipeline. This decision was made with careful consideration of all shareholders' interests. The revised dividend level reflects the realities of the industry cycle and supports a more sustainable financial framework. Moving towards a self-funded growth model is intended to reduce reliance on external capital, improve balance sheet resilience, and support long-term value creation.
The Board of Directors includes members with deep experience in finance, energy markets, major capital project oversight, capital markets, and corporate governance with perspectives. I'd like to take a moment to recognize and thank the rest of the Board: Doyle Beneby, Sébastian Clerc, Lisa Colnett, Kevin Glass, Keith Halbert, Christine Healy, Helen Mallovy Hicks, Eckhardt Ruemmler, and Ellen Smith. Together, we are building on a solid foundation and positioning Northland for an exciting and sustainable future. We look forward to the journey ahead. Thank you.
Thank you, Ian. Let's see if we can adjust this up. Let's talk strategy. Today, the global power sector is changing, and we see strong fundamental shifts that are shaping the future of electricity, particularly in our markets. Electrification across transportation, buildings, and industry is driving sustained growth in electricity demand.
We're also seeing that economic expansion and rapid digitization is adding new structural loads. Historically, electricity demand generally tracked GDP, and today, new uses are being layered on top of that baseline. AI, data centers, EV adoption, rising air conditioning demand, continued industrialization, electrification of systems—this is all contributing to long-term demand growth. Geopolitical uncertainty has also elevated energy security and affordability to the top of policy agendas for governments around the world. Across many of our markets, this is increasing demand for domestic generation, from gas-fired power to renewables to grid-scale storage. Decarbonization remains a driver. Policies in Europe and Canada continue to support investment in clean generation. Certainly, in places where the resource exists, it makes sense to develop it. Of course, no market is perfect.
Alongside these wonderful opportunities, we see pressure—pressure for lower power prices, supply chain challenges, evolving regulatory frameworks, all of which require careful navigation. This is where disciplined companies will differentiate themselves. Those that are crisp on capital allocation, selective in their investments, and focused on long-term value creation will emerge stronger. While forecasts differ, one thing is clear: global demand for electricity is growing. The IEA recently increased its outlook, projecting electricity demand to rise more than 34% by 2035. While the global picture is helpful, electricity demand is not met globally; it is met locally. The solutions for Toronto, Ontario, are different than the solutions for Warsaw, Poland. Each market has its own resource mix, policy environment, and regulatory needs. For example, Poland still relies heavily on coal. Ontario has a significant nuclear base. Other markets are expanding renewables rapidly but need firm capacity to balance the intermittency.
In all of these environments, growth technologies need to be paired with solutions that ensure reliability, whether transitional or baseload. At Northland, our diversified capabilities allow us to deliver across these needs, and this gives us a strategic edge. Our customers and system operators increasingly want all of the above solutions, and our flexibility allows us to adapt for their reliability requirements, policy changes, grid constraints, and evolving technology preferences, all while managing risk and sustaining returns. Each of our technologies plays a role in this solution, and together, they leave us well-positioned. This diversification is a core strength. It stabilizes earnings, supports disciplined growth, and enables us to deliver value across different market conditions. Looking ahead to 2030, we have outlined clear strategic initiatives and financial targets that will guide our organization. You will hear more on each of these shortly, including how we intend to meet them.
I'll focus on the key drivers of our projections, and Jeff will speak later about the financial metrics that support them. Let's start at the top. Over the next five years, we expect to double our operating capacity to 7 gigawatts. Within that, we are targeting 1.4-1.8 gigawatts of new capacity growth. Our funding plan over the next five years requires approximately CAD 6 billion in total gross investment. Our strategy is anchored in value creation. We will pursue only those projects that deliver levered after-tax returns of at least 12%. To meet these targets and maintain our competitive edge, we are also targeting cost efficiencies across G&A, across our development organization, and through our operations. We are restructuring our teams from technology silos into regional hubs, resulting in a CAD 50 million sustainable savings by the end of 2028.
Jeff will have more to say about these measures. Based on these drivers, we are targeting a 6% compound annual growth rate in free cash flow per share through 2030, resulting in a projected range of $1.55-$1.75 per share. How are we going to achieve this? We will stay focused on our three strategic pillars: deliver, strengthen, grow. This framework brings the focus and the discipline needed to stay on plan and build shareholder value. Deliver is our foundation. We operate with excellence, with safety as a core value. We complete our projects as planned, and we are the trusted operator for our partners and our stakeholders. We focus on what we do well, and we continually raise the bar. Strengthen. This is where we are making a better Northland.
We are streamlining the organization, improving efficiency, and driving cost savings across the corporate functions, but also in the operational assets. We're drawing on best practices from across the sector, identifying the technologies that improve our performance, our reliability, and our value. Grow. We will pursue value-accretive growth by prioritizing our core markets, high-grading our pipeline, and enhancing value across our existing fleet. Everything is underpinned by disciplined capital allocation. We will advance only the highest return opportunities, and we review every project regularly to determine whether it merits continued investment. Before we get into growth, I do want to spend some time on deliver and strengthen, because this is how we create value today and build the foundation for the value of tomorrow. At Northland, we are proud owners and operators. We construct and operate assets to drive long-term value.
We bring decades of experience, and we have a strong track record of delivery. We achieve this through strong scenario planning, an agile, empowered supply chain, experienced local teams who are empowered to make decisions, and a one-team approach with suppliers, partners, and joint venturers. We also apply a full lifecycle mindset, making decisions today that protect value tomorrow. For 95% of our production, our revenue is contracted today. As those contracts roll off, though, we can expect that new pricing contracts may be lower, and that means our OpEx and reliability have to drive value. We are positioning ourselves to be able to do just that. Strengthening our core is fundamental. Simple, effective organizations make better decisions, and that translates into better cost structures and greater shareholder value. The best companies are those that reduce costs and deliver the best value.
To that end, we have launched three initiatives in Northland focused on sustainable cost savings. These programs have already launched, and together we will achieve CAD 50 million in annual savings by the end of 2028. Those are sustainable annual savings. Through these programs, we are taking three complementary actions. Number one, we are optimizing our organizational design. We are shifting from a technology model to a geographical model. We are centralizing project delivery. Every dollar of development capital competes on equal terms across all of our markets. There are no pockets reserved for any geographies. Every project competes with every other project. We are improving operational performance across the fleet. The teams are already delivering results, but we see there is more to go, that we can be even better than we are today and drive more value from the existing fleet. Jeff will have more to say about this in his section.
On the organization, we're shifting from technology business units into strategic regional hubs, one for the Americas and one for international. This better aligns people and resources with our core markets and enables us to deliver multi-technology solutions efficiently. Our new structure streamlines the organization, scales our expertise, eliminates duplication, deepens capabilities, and strengthens our competitive advantage. You can see in the middle of the circle on the right there, we've also created a centralized project development and delivery office. This team will be responsible for deploying capital to the highest return, fastest-moving projects. This positions us to leverage scale, share learnings, and strengthen our local relationships, all supported by disciplined capital allocation. Along with that new structure, I'm pleased to announce our new leadership team. In addition to Jeff and me, who you already know, Jaime Hurtado Cola is our newly appointed General Counsel.
Jaime, are you in the room? Is Jaime in the room? There's Jaime. Thank you very much. He leads our legal strategy, risk management, and corporate governance functions. Rachel Stevenson, our Chief People Officer. Hi, Rachel. She leads our global HR strategy, including talent development and organizational culture. Pierre-Emmanuel Fort, who continues to lead in health and safety and will be responsible for the new centralized project development and delivery function. Calvin McCormick, who will lead our Americas hub, and Toby Edmonds will lead our international hub. These gentlemen will lead our global operations and growth initiatives. I turn now to grow. We look at growth in three lanes: value enhancement opportunities, our organic pipeline, and asset acquisition opportunities. Let's start with value enhancement. We can extract more value from the assets we already own through capacity upgrades, repowering, hybridization, contract extensions.
We have dedicated teams identifying short-cycle, lower-risk, high-return opportunities. As of now, six initiatives are moving through our investment process. There have been more ideas than these first six. Some of them require additional work to understand the scope of the opportunity, but the best six are now our focus, while other opportunities need some more time to mature. Within our organic pipeline, this is our engine of long-term growth. We advance projects through a disciplined decision gate process. Every project in the funnel is regularly assessed regarding timing, economics, and strategic fit. Only the strongest opportunities progress. The third tranche there is acquisitions. We selectively add value-accretive assets, like the Poland battery storage projects I mentioned earlier. We are in dialogue on numerous other opportunities in our core geographies that fit our strategy.
Should they meet our requirements and drive more value than opportunities we're advancing today, they will move into our pipeline. We're making smart choices to deliver sustainable, focused growth over the next years. When Hailong and Baltic Power come online in 2027, Northland will be a fundamentally different platform. By 2030, we plan to double operating capacity to 7 gigawatts, requiring us to bring 1.4-1.8 gigawatts of new projects into commercial operations. We are building platforms in markets with strong fundamentals. Our Poland storage acquisitions are one example. Near-term, our focus is on natural gas, onshore, and battery storage. Offshore wind will follow later in the decade, aligned with market conditions and opportunities. Growth must be paced. Sequencing our major projects reduces risk, focuses capital, and ensures resources are applied where they create the greatest value.
In addition to how we select for projects, many of you have asked me about Northland's approach for how we select our markets. How do we make decisions for our locations and which technologies apply in those locations? There are two major components to this. At the top level is market selection itself, and then the lower level is the investment screen. I'm going to talk about market selection now and how we apply that at Northland, and Jeff will give some more color on the investment screen portion, especially our decision funnel and our stage gate process. The funnel is an important concept, though, at Northland, because not all projects will ultimately make their way through final investment decision. Only the best projects will be the ones that we invest in. Let's dive deeper, though, into market selection.
Before we enter any market, we have to take a full view of the context, both during the contract period and afterwards. We are long-term operators, so we need to understand the markets that we're entering. We apply three screens: a macro screen, a technology screen, and a commercial screen. On the macro side, we assess a range of fundamentals. Like I said earlier, underlying GDP growth used to be proxy enough for electricity growth, but underlying GDP growth is still a relevant consideration. We also look at industrial growth, electricity demand trends. We really look at grid investment and interconnection availability, and if it is being planned into the future, how reliable is that plan and timeframe? We also look at the political and the regulatory environment. These can be very significant considerations in the timing of projects.
We also look at carbon and policy signals and long-term agreement pathways, whether it's in power purchase agreements or contracts for difference or other structures that governments wish to pursue. We prefer markets where contract structures are well established and where projects can be delivered reliably, both on paper and in practice. After the macro screen, we have a look at the technology screen. In that screen, we look to select the technology that offers the highest risk-adjusted returns in that market. In reaching that conclusion, we consider grid infrastructure, resource availability, system operator requirements, as well as the long-term operations and maintenance environment. Our diversified capabilities here give us strategic flexibility. We can adapt to the resource mix, the grid, and the customer needs. If we've made it through those two screens, we get to the commercial screen.
We evaluate commercial viability of the concept as opposed to a particular project. More than 95% of our revenues today are contracted across a broad mix of government-backed contracts and corporate off-takers. That diversity is another strength for Northland because we are content to follow these different types of arrangements. We look for markets where we can deploy a structure that works for us as a company, but also works for the target jurisdiction. At the end of the process, though, the decision must deliver shareholder value or we will not pursue it. Let me make this practical. How are we applying this framework at Northland today? Based on macro demand trends and the strengths of our current portfolio, we are concentrating our efforts in core markets in Canada and in Europe.
These are places where the fundamentals are strong, demand is growing, and we see that our capabilities are in high need. In Europe, we're focused on Poland, Spain, and the U.K. These are markets with clear long-term electricity needs, established contracting structures, and good policy support. We're also keeping a close watch on Germany as it renews its focus on industrial activity and domestic energy supply. We are keeping a watching brief there. In Canada, we are prioritizing Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec. These provinces reflect strong system needs, including onshore renewables, natural gas, storage, and hybrid solution. Our long-standing presence in these provinces provides us a strong right to win. I'm going to dive deeper into these in a moment, but before I do, just a quick note on Asia. We maintain a long-term view on this region beyond 2030 because we do see meaningful opportunity there.
From a macro standpoint, GDP growth is strong, grid investment is significant, and policy support aligns well with Northland's capabilities. Over the next 15 years, it is expected that the region is going to require more than 200 gigawatts of new power generation. It is one of the largest demand opportunities globally. Importantly, we already have an established footprint supported by strong partners in Gentari and Mitsui. We will continue to evaluate opportunities in Asia as they mature, but we see them on a longer-term horizon than our focus right now on Canada and Europe. Let's take a deeper dive into the next five years, beginning with Europe, where Northland sees good opportunity with the region's strong policy support across the EU. The EU Clean Investment Plan tops CAD 550 billion. That leaves a lot of room for investment.
Across Europe, we continue to see a clear need for new electricity supply. The specific drivers vary by market, but the trend is consistent: more demand, more renewables, and more need for reliability. In Poland, Poland has one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU and a strong focus on energy security. With Baltic Power and our two new battery storage projects, we now have a strong foothold and we're well-positioned for future growth across multiple technologies. We turn to Spain in the middle there. Since the blackout earlier this year, Spain has been having a really different conversation about grid reliability. With our existing fleet and our existing footprint in Spain, we are well-placed to play a meaningful role in delivering the electricity and reliability that system needs. The United Kingdom.
It's a mature market with high renewable ambitions, but in addition, we see potential for rapid data center expansion, driving new load growth and opening opportunities for offshore wind and battery storage. These are both areas where Northland has deep expertise. On this next slide, I'm going to take an extra few minutes on Poland because it's a standout opportunity and we're seeing it firsthand. There are several factors that make Poland very compelling for Northland. This is a market laser-focused on energy security, affordability, and decarbonization, and they are moving quickly to build out renewable generation, solar, onshore wind, and offshore wind. We are already invested in an offshore wind project with a strong local partner, and we see continued potential across technologies.
As the share of renewables grows in the energy mix in Poland, the need for battery storage increases, and this aligns directly with the two new projects we added to our portfolio this week. Poland meets our market selection screen. On the macro side, strong GDP growth and industrial activity, supportive climate policies, strong links, and building out a further interconnection to Western European energy markets. On the technology screen, renewables are central to Poland's long-term strategy. Storage is required to balance a rapidly changing grid. On the commercial screen, we see attractive long-term revenue frameworks, including contracts for difference with 25-year terms for offshore wind, 15-year terms for onshore, and 17-year storage auctions. Together, these fundamentals make Poland a highly attractive market for disciplined, selective growth. Let's turn now to our home market, Canada. Here we see a different set of fundamentals, but strong opportunity.
Canada's story is a bit unique. We already have the fourth greenest grid in the world as a country. Many provinces are very well-advanced in their greening process, but electrification, industrial growth, and reliability needs are accelerating. This means that new electricity supply must come online, and it must be delivered in a way that is affordable and dependable. This creates a meaningful opportunity for Northland. If we go to the next slide, Canada's installed electricity capacity today is around 150 gigawatts, and when you look at forecasts from the system operators across the country, we see demand for 70-100 gigawatts of new capacity over the next decade. That's a 50-70% increase from today. One clear opportunity in Canada lies in historically underinvested gas infrastructure.
With significant natural gas resources available, there's a need to modernize and expand flexible gas generation to support reliability during the energy transition. I will note that Canada can be complex from a permitting and contracting standpoint. However, with decades of experience at Northland, we know how to operate effectively in Canada across provinces. I will say, though, it's important to recognize that Canadian opportunities within our Northland set of opportunities compete across the portfolio, so they compete against other global opportunities. Capital will be allocated to the projects that offer the strongest returns regardless of geography. Across many provinces, there are large procurement processes underway for new power generation, and we are engaged where we see a competitive right to win and where we have projects that meet what operators are looking for.
Northland also has a home market advantage with operations and projects in Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec. We're actively evaluating new opportunities across Canada, and we're in bilateral discussions on several opportunities. Calvin will speak shortly about a near-term opportunity in Alberta that has potential for gas fire generation. I will take a moment here as well on offshore wind for Canada because I continue to get a lot of questions about it. With our global scale and our proven delivery record in offshore wind, we are closely following what's happening in Canada with respect to potential offshore wind development. We continue to meet with officials at various levels of government, and we have outlined and worked with them to show what we need to see as investors. Put plainly, that's clear contract terms, definable timelines, and efficient permitting.
If Canada becomes competitive in offshore wind, it would represent an opportunity for both the sector and for Northland. Let's turn now to our pipeline because, as I said earlier, every dollar in our pipeline is competing globally as we continue to high-grade opportunities. At every stage of development, we evaluate projects based on maturity, risk, return, speed of delivery, whether they come from origination, value enhancement initiatives, or acquisitions. This is our stage gate model. Building an active pipeline is a core focus for our management team, and it is a focus at every one of our meetings. We work to increase value and reduce risk as projects advance through the stages. Here is where our pipeline stands today. When you look here in early stage, you will see that there's some Canada onshore renewables, some Canada natural gas.
These are opportunities that are currently within our portfolio that we do not name specifically because they may or may not be part of ongoing auction processes, or they may be being advanced for upcoming auction processes. There is a footnote above offshore wind Poland. There is an offshore wind opportunity in Poland that we have been working on for some time, but the Polish system requires a public auction process, and when that public auction process occurs, we will assess at that time whether this project makes sense for us. There is a U.K. offshore wind floating project here where we mentioned in previous updates that for us, this is a project that is currently on pause, but we continue to evaluate whether this will be an opportunity, and we are in dialogue with government authorities in the U.K. about that.
We have Southeast Asia offshore here, referencing what I said earlier, that we do have licenses in Southeast Asia where we have a low-cost opportunity to retain the option for the future. We do. Where action is required for investment at this time, we have recently chosen to relinquish one of those licenses for exactly that reason, that we do not feel the opportunity is sufficiently mature at this stage. We also have a set of onshore opportunities in New York, which are not a priority for us at this stage. In mid-stage development, you can see that we have a Spain storage project. We have also Canada onshore renewables, Colosard Natural Gas, which Calvin will speak to shortly, various Ontario projects named that way because of ongoing procurement processes, and U.K. offshore wind, a fixed bottom project that we have been speaking to at several of our previous events.
As that project matures, we will tell you more about it. In late-stage development, we have the two Poland projects that Toby's going to talk to you about in a little bit. We do have an opportunity in the US onshore called Highbridge. We have our three projects in construction, Hailong, Baltic Power, and Jurassic BESS. You see underneath that there is an ongoing project acquisition evaluation. This is an asset acquisition type approach where we look at assets that can be value accretive in our pipeline. Here at the bottom, you see our value enhancement projects. These are the projects we have decided as a company to move forward. They currently sit in mid-stage development, and now they are going through our capital allocation process for next year and the year beyond in order to finalize timelines for delivery.
You see there is Spain storage, utilization of our transmission line, potential for repowering. We have some dialogue ongoing in Quebec around potential expansion or extension of our facilities there. We do have some opportunities across the fleet for behind-the-meter storage where it enables us, so different than grid-level battery storage, which is providing grid-level services, behind-the-meter storage is simply to enable us to sell in shoulder times when we will get access to better pricing. We have natural gas optimization within our fleet, and these are ways that we can drive value from what we already hold. Underpinning everything is our commitment to long-term value through disciplined capital management. The discipline gives us financial resilience, it enables rigorous capital allocation, and it supports sustainable shareholder returns.
I think I've talked long enough, and I'm going to welcome Pierre-Emmanuel Frot to speak about our development and project delivery approach. Thank you.
Thank you, Christine. I am Pierre-Emmanuel Frot, and I lead our new central project development and delivery office. I hope my French accent will not be too challenging. Engineer as in education, and after 25 years managing large electrical and renewable project organizations, I joined Northland Power in 2023 to lead the procurement and project management office. The purpose of this new organization structure is to drive growth centrally, managing our DevEx effectively while scaling our strengths in project delivery across the company. As Christine shared, there are a lot of growth opportunities ahead. Our collective goal is to highlight our pipeline so Northland only pursues the most value-accretive projects that deliver strong returns.
With this new group, we'll take our expertise and best practices and implement them across all our assets, so three core principles. First is establishing a centralized, disciplined, and repeatable process to evaluate growth projects. Internally, every DevEx dollar would compete for capital through our decision gate process. We'll assess projects using a consistent set of parameters such as feasibility, risk profile, required investment, and of course, value creation and returns. Based on our assessment, development funding will be deployed to the opportunities with the best risk-reward effort ratio. Our approach will be market agnostic and account for the differences between technologies. We want to invest in the best opportunities regardless of which team brings them forward. A key benefit of this centralized approach is that it frees capacity for our Americas and international teams to focus on their markets and assets.
Overall, we're all focused on disciplined growth through projects that are competitive and meet our thresholds. Our second principle, rigorous project delivery, planning, and structured due diligence. Once we confirm projects for investment, with a centralized model, we'll drive cost efficiencies while accelerating development. This will let us baseline projects and track progress through the pipeline so we can make the right capital allocation recommendations at each gate as we continue to high-grade our pipeline. The third principle is leveraging our market and technology knowledge, along with our global scale, combining local presence and central expertise. The new structure is designed to meet diverse market needs by deploying the most suitable technologies in a way that ensures competitiveness and long-term value. Now that I have given you an understanding of how we will deploy capital, I want to talk through our approach to project delivery.
We basically follow two models, either our owner-operator or JV partners. In both models, we may have investor partners, but their role is different in the actual daily project management. Fully delegated to Northland in the first case, like for Oneida, or shared, like for Baltic or Hailong. Partnering with other organizations is core to our model, and Northland is recognized for its ability to do so. Whether it's Canada with First Nations or with other players globally, we spend time understanding their target objectives and culture. Our goal is to align our objectives and work closely together to deliver projects successfully with few conflicts, which is testament to our strong partnership philosophy. This is an important point because it allows us to focus only on the project and not on different issues or expectations of each other, especially during difficult times.
When acting as a JV partner, we spend the necessary time to build and empower one single project team, integrating the complete monetary skills of each partner, with Northland playing a key role. Teams are trusted to make decisions because they are closest to the projects and know what is necessary for execution. Taking the example of Hailong, the project team is led by Northland leaders as the project director and package manager are both Northland employees. All of this is overseen by a joint venture management team integrating Northland and its partners' representatives. Finally, we place great importance on scenario planning and tracking in our project management office for delivery and cost control. We implement tools and technologies like AI to drive efficiency and understand what is in front of us and anticipate various possibilities so we can take early action and mitigate future risk.
As an example, a key challenge on project is the management of interfaces and possible knock-on effect between packages. AI can help at identifying misalignment before they become an issue, while integrated data management tools can quickly provide a view on the different options available to the project to manage a delay or another event impacting the project progress. An important part of project delivery is our supply chain and the need to have very strong suppliers and contractors in our market. Our strategy is to develop strong relationships with a short list of top-tier suppliers like our approach to partners. We want our suppliers to be aligned with the project objectives. It requires understanding their own objectives and constraints. The prime success indicator for our supply chain management is that projects are delivered on time, on budget, and with expected performance.
Second point is that we interact with our suppliers at different levels. From CEO down to operations, we make sure that we know the people and that our message is clear, shared, and aligned. The human relationship of project is sometimes downplayed, but it actually plays a key role in making a project successful. Finally, we adapt our supply chain strategy to the technology, battery, solar, gas, or wind, which have all a different dynamic. Being a multi-technology provider gives flexibility to work on other technologies and continue to deploy capital when certain supply chains are constrained. Battery storage is a fast-moving market with rapid price deflation and technology changes and potential breakthrough innovations. We keep a constant eye on the market trends to make sure we use solutions delivering the right combination of price and performance.
On the other end of the scale is offshore wind, where we work with two preferred suppliers, Siemens and Vestas, that give us predictability and the best value. With our good relationships, we align early on projects and determine a solid construction strategy to balance risk and cost. If inflation and supply limitation has been a topic for the past years, the tension seems to loosen a little thanks to the cancellation or postponement of some projects. Gas falls in between with the supply chain defined by design. Northland's long history in natural gas gives us the capability to approach projects in different ways. We have strong relationships, no timelines, and can deploy solutions quickly. This is where expertise matters in the supply chain. Solar is closer to battery with many supply options, but is a more mature market.
In summary, we put a lot of importance on our supplier relationships, and we ensure we maintain optionality and mitigate risk. Our suppliers play a critical role in our ability not only to deliver our projects, but to operate them and improve the performance of the assets over time. Making them partners of our success is essential. With that, I will hand off to Calvin McCormick, EVP Americas, to take you through our Americas operations and how we drive their performance. Merci.
Thank you, Pierre-Emmanuel. I am Calvin McCormick, EVP for the Americas. I have been in the power industry for more than 30 years and with Northland Power for most of that time. Starting in facility operations, I have had the tremendous opportunity to grow along with this company in lockstep as we expanded into each of our technologies and regions.
All these years later, I can tell you that the same spark that drove us to succeed is not diminished. I'm happy to be with you today to talk about this proud Canadian company founded nearly 40 years ago. In the Americas, we have 1.4 gigawatts in operation, with 85% of those assets located in Canada. In addition, this portfolio contains a regulated utility in Colombia, which serves 500,000 customers. In 2024, these businesses represented 35% of our EBITDA. Noteworthy in this fleet is that the portfolio represents all our generation technology other than offshore wind. Northland was an early mover in Canada in gas, solar, wind projects, and now that innovation continues with our Oneida Energy Storage Facility, which has just gone into operation this year and is currently the largest operating battery energy storage facility in Canada.
High availability is a key standard in the power industry, and you can see here that both our natural gas and renewables fleet are performing better than the industry average. Our commitment to operational excellence is what enables us to stand out amongst our peers. There are two key benefits to maintaining high commercial availability. The obvious one is that it is positively correlated with higher revenues. The second benefit is how this high availability bolsters our reputation in market with our commercial off-takers, and it gives them confidence to work with us on new development projects. On the previous slide, you saw our high availability driven by our commitment to operational excellence. What is operational excellence? First and foremost, it is anchored by our people who demonstrate an entrepreneurial mindset and extreme ownership of operational outcomes.
These same teams are rewarded by compensation systems that reinforce those good behaviors. Great for our employees and great for our business. What's more, we have deep expertise and institutional knowledge in our operational teams. For example, natural gas is 20 years, and in onshore wind, 75% of our operation teams have been with the company for over 10 years. With empowered teams in the field, our management team provides support and facilitates sharing of best practice and key learnings across our portfolio. Additionally, keeping the full life cycle of the assets in view, our commercial and technical teams combine their expertise in markets, power generation, and performance analytics to optimize margins over the long run. As we further scale in this market, the cost efficiency of the portfolio will only improve. Now, a perfect example of our operational expertise is on display at Oneida.
This is our 250 MW energy storage project, which we delivered this year ahead of schedule and on budget. It continues to exceed our expectations. Oneida is one of our most dynamic assets. It is a learning asset. Through a combination of machine learning, optimization algorithms, and risk management tools, the system is constantly adapting to market and grid conditions to improve its performance over time. We use machine learning forecasting to anticipate key variables: market prices, renewable generation levels, demand, and grid imbalances. These forecasts feed into optimization algorithms that calculate the most profitable and reliable market strategy. The Oneida team can decide days, hours, or even minutes ahead of time whether it should buy, sell, or hold energy to capture maximum value across all streams. All of this happens under a risk-aware framework, accounting for uncertainty from forecast errors, price volatility, and system status.
In addition, these models integrate detailed models of battery degradation, so we're protecting the long-term health of the asset while optimizing its short-term returns. The system is constantly learning as it accumulates data from operations, market behavior, and weather patterns. It refines its forecast and dispatch strategy. This creates a powerful feedback loop: better forecasts, better dispatch, better outcomes, which in turn generate more data to improve the next cycle. Now, as a first mover in this space, we'll be leveraging these learnings to increase our competitive advantage as we continue to drive this new business line forward in Alberta and internationally. As Christine discussed earlier, we're looking at driving more value from our existing asset base. In the near term in Canada, I would highlight that we are evaluating project expansions and contract extensions at our existing gas and renewable facilities.
As a reminder, we recently completed one such expansion and contract extension at our Ford facility, adding 23 megawatts and an additional five years of contracted cash flows. In addition, we see several non-capital intensive opportunities where revenue can be increased within the existing assets. Many of our facilities went commercial in an environment where load growth was flat to nonexistent. Today, driven by growing electricity demand in the region and a renewed appetite from off-takers for additional electrons, we are advancing. The aim of these projects is to both strengthen our competitive position in market and deliver strong returns to our shareholders by focusing on shorter cycle, lower risk, higher return initiatives that enhance asset performance and cash flow. One such opportunity that we are looking at currently is exploring expansion of our Monlowee wind project in eastern Quebec.
It's important to note here that Quebec has moved from an oversupply of generation to a projected shortfall in the coming years. This new reality is a stark change from just a few years ago. This project is a prime target for us for expansion due to a strong wind resource, some spare capacity in the existing substation, and its proximity to ground land. We look forward to sharing more with you as we continue to develop and de-risk this project. Our next confirmed project in construction, Jurassic BESS, broke ground this year and will be Alberta's first large-scale battery facility. Once complete, it will enhance grid flexibility in a province that has experienced rapid growth in corporate-backed wind and solar. Next year, we will deliver and install the battery packs and high-voltage substation, targeting full commercial operation by the end of the year.
Now, I'm very happy to give you an overview of one of Northland's new gas-fired development projects. The Colosard project is a peaking 120 MW gas-fired generation project located near Red Deer, Alberta. The project is well advanced in the ASOQ, and we are driving development forward with a targeted COD before 2029. We believe now that this is the time to invest in gas generation and battery energy storage in Alberta. With low-cost and abundant gas, a favorable ecosystem for project development, and strong future market fundamentals, we are confidently advancing this project. In summary, in the Americas, with a particular focus on Canada, we will continue to lead with operational excellence. We'll drive more value from our existing fleet, and we will deliver our projects safely through construction. With that, I will pass to Toby Edmonds for an update on our international fleet.
Good morning.
Thank you, Calvin. I'm Toby Edmonds, Executive Vice President of International. I joined Northland in 2024, and I have experience of over 25 years in the energy industry, spending most of my time focusing on delivering offshore wind construction projects. Picking up from Calvin, I'll give you a quick overview of our international business. Today, we have 1.8 gigawatts in operation and 2.1 gigawatts in construction, which represented 65% of the EBITDA of the company in 2024. It is set to grow with the two new offshore assets when they come online. Our business began internationally in 2014 when we stepped outside of Canada and into the offshore market with the acquisition of Gemini in the Netherlands. We later added onshore wind with our acquisition in Spain, where we have a diverse portfolio of wind and solar assets.
Fundamental to delivering our EBITDA is our commercial availability, which you can see in the chart here. Like the Americas, this graph demonstrates our focus on operational excellence and continuous improvement is delivering for Northland and its shareholders. In both our offshore fleet and onshore fleet, we see availability above industry benchmarks, which is thanks to the hard work of our operations teams across our portfolio. We are not complacent. We strive to keep and exceed what we have achieved so far by ensuring that each asset is ready when the resource is there to be captured, whether it is wind or solar. Our performance is made possible by our focus on operational excellence. We are an experienced operator of large-scale generation assets across the international business, and we will see two gigawatt-scale assets coming online in the next years.
Our new structure sets us up to capitalize on our global footprint, deepening our market knowledge to increase performance and surface new opportunities. Creating value starts with our people who work every day on driving performance. As Pierre-Emmanuel Frot mentioned, we empower our people to identify and create improvement opportunities. This local empowerment, supported by management, means we can innovate at the asset level and elevate the approach to our entire business. Our key focus areas today are developing our integrated management systems in line with ISO standards, maintaining our full service capability, which allows us to make informed decisions at each of our assets, whether to procure services from the market or do it ourselves to deliver top quartile performance. Performance analysis enhancements enable a deep understanding of the turbines in our fleet.
Knowing the health of all our assets in real time allows us to pinpoint the exact moment to change a component to minimize downtime and revenue loss and keep availability high. Finally, data analysis, investing in our data capability to further automate reporting and performance analysis across our portfolio to leverage our scale. Overall, we are constantly assessing ways to increase revenue whilst decreasing cost and risk. As Christine and Calvin have discussed, value enhancements at our existing assets are key in driving value from our fleet. In spring of this year, Spain experienced a blackout, which affected tens of millions of people. We believe grid-scale battery storage systems offer part of the solution to prevent this from happening in the future. Our portfolio is spread across Spain, giving us several opportunities to add battery storage systems at existing sites where the grid needs it most.
We are assessing the opportunities across our European portfolio where we have some of the ingredients in place, such as land, grid capacities, and synergies with existing assets. One example is La Breja in Spain, where we see the potential for a grid-scale battery storage system up to 180 megawatts, that's 720 megawatt hours. This will enable us to strengthen our market position whilst leveraging our expertise in battery storage from Canada. Switching our focus to construction, I'd like to share a short video showing our progress on Hailong and Baltic Power this year. As you can see, we've progressed on our projects in construction. Northland continues to advance the one-gigawatt Hailong project, and we achieved first power and installed more than half of the wind turbines and completed installation of the export cables this year. I'd like to provide detail on the commissioning at Hailong.
The issue we disclosed relates to the wind turbines installed this year. To recap our original plan, we intended to install and commission 37 wind turbines in 2025. The good news is that we've successfully completed the installation of these turbines. However, commissioning has been slower than originally planned, pushing it into the winter period. Due to winter weather, our access to the turbines is limited for final commissioning and troubleshooting. As a result, not all turbines are generating as planned this winter. Of the 37, we have two wind turbines generating, 16 currently in commissioning, leaving 19 remaining to be commissioned. The issues we're encountering are typical for this phase of commissioning, but mean we will have lower revenues through Q4 and Q1 than planned. We had anticipated using this revenue to support capital expenditure in the coming year.
As a result, we've identified the need to fund between CAD 150 million and CAD 200 million in 2026 to fill the gap. Our recovery plan will get us back on track through Q2 next year. In parallel to this, we've proactively addressed a potential reliability issue at the onshore substation by replacing the cable connections between the onshore substation and the grid system. This requires an outage in December and is expected to be completed in January. We do not anticipate any further impacts from this issue going forward. While these issues were not planned, they are manageable and do not affect the long-term value or viability of the Hailong project. We remain on track to achieve full commercial operation in 2027. We are confident in our ability to deliver this project. On Baltic Power, we've made strong progress and continue to plan.
As you saw in the video, we've installed the two offshore substations, which is an important milestone for the project. Next year's milestones include completing foundation, turbine and array cable installation, and connecting to the grid system to achieve first power generation. We target full commercial operations in the second half of 2026. Today, we announced the acquisition of two battery storage projects totaling 300 megawatts, 1,200 megawatt hours in Poland, at Maciejysław and Kamieńka in Poland. This acquisition strengthens Northland's growing presence in Poland and underscores our commitment to supporting the country's energy needs. As Poland's electricity markets evolve, the need for grid-scale storage is critical to balancing the grid and ensuring reliability. The projects each have a four-hour duration and are located in western Poland. The anticipated construction cost for both projects is EUR 200 million.
The revenues are underpinned by 17-year capacity contracts indexed to inflation, with additional revenue expected from energy arbitrage and participating in ancillary services markets. Financing and the start of construction are expected next year in 2026. Once completed, the projects will be some of the first battery energy storage facilities operating in Poland. We will now go to a short break, then Jeff Hart will take you through our financials. Thank you.
We will begin in five minutes. For those that are taking the refreshment, we will be getting started in five minutes. Thank you. We will begin in two minutes. For those that are still gathering the refreshments, I invite you to join us back in the room.
All right. Welcome back, everyone, and good morning. For those of you who don't know me, I'm Jeff Hart.
I've been with Northland for, I think, a little over six months here, so good to see you all. Now that Christine and the team have discussed the overall strategy and business execution, I'll provide color on Northland's financial framework. The foundation of our financial framework is based on the three pillars of financial resilience, disciplined capital allocation, and sustainable shareholder returns. The result of the framework is a self-funded model without reliance on common equity issuances, and let me touch on each of the pillars at a high level. To start, financial resilience. We will maintain an investment-grade balance sheet while delivering on our existing construction and future growth opportunities, and we will enhance our margins through cost reductions, all of which is underpinned by a highly contracted revenue base.
In terms of capital allocation, we will only invest in our core markets, and all investments must meet or exceed a 12% rate of return. Finally, sustainable shareholder returns. Our shareholder returns will be underpinned by the cash flow of our operating fleet, and they can grow sustainably through the planned horizon in line with our growing cash flow. Now let's dive deeper into financial resilience. Our plan assumes an investment-grade credit rating, which allows us more reliable access to capital through the cycle and provides a foundation to grow our business. Our credit ratings at both agencies are currently mid-Triple B, and our plan maintains an investment-grade rating. In addition, the majority of funding is expected to come from project financing, given the nature of our cash flows, which provides further funding certainty.
Project financing also allows for ratable principal repayments through our plan in line with our contracted revenue timeframes, also reducing our refinancing risk. Our drive for financial resilience will also focus on cash flow enhancement through cost efficiency, thereby driving EBITDA and free cash flow margin, by a target of CAD 50 million in annual savings to be fully realized by 2028. The plan to achieve our baseline cost reductions is driven by streamlining our organizational accountabilities, and Christine talked about that earlier. A more concentrated market focus. We're primarily focused now on two core markets in Europe and Canada, and we'll be able to spread our fixed costs over greater volumes given that depth. We'll leverage technology on our corporate processes, including automation and leveraging our software and our ERP systems fully. Finally, we'll look to optimize our maintenance processes and contracts across our fleet.
These reductions will allow us to further fund growth whilst also expanding our balance sheet capacity. The final piece of financial resilience I'd like to address is our revenue base. With more than 95% of our revenue under long-term PPA, or contract for difference, we have predictable revenue pricing. The high contractedness is supplemented by our disciplined approach to counterparties with an average credit quality of A-plus, further reducing risk. Finally, underpinning this strategy is a long tenure beyond 10 years, which provides additional funding certainty for growth and returns through the planned horizon. Taking a deeper dive into our revenue contracts, you can see here the majority of our revenue is contracted well beyond the five-year plan, with a weighted average life of 14 years. The recent North Sea One recontracting is consistent with our approach on financial resilience.
We secured a corporate PPA with Shell Energy Europe for one-third of our volumes, commencing June 27 for a term of five years. This construct reinforces our drive for providing lower-risk cash flows underpinned by strong counterparties. Now let me turn to disciplined capital allocation, the second pillar. As Christine discussed earlier, all of our investments must be strategically aligned in our core markets. Now that we have established our core markets are Europe and Canada, our organic growth options must provide competitive returns relative to inorganic growth, share buybacks, and other capital deployment opportunities. If a project or opportunity has strategic alignment and shows strong risk-adjusted returns, only then will we allocate capital. What this means in practice is our returns must reflect underlying regulatory timeframes and meet a higher bar if the asset has a larger proportion of market exposure or technical execution risk.
Now let's take a look at our return criteria in a little bit more detail. We've adjusted our returns to ensure we create shareholder value while continuing to grow. We previously targeted equity returns of 9-12%. Now we aim for 12% or greater. As I mentioned previously, we will require higher returns depending on that relative risk profile of the specific opportunity. We see many opportunities in front of us that can meet our return thresholds. Let's take a look at a few examples in action of our capital allocation in action. Jurassic BESS leverages off our success at Oneida and will provide grid stability in our core Alberta market. Colosard will build off our history of being a Canadian natural gas power generator and is expected to deliver cash flow in 2029.
Finally, the new assets in Poland demonstrate our approach in action by building platform depth in a core market, and they'll deliver returns in the mid-teens. Now let's look at what this all means in our plan and funding in aggregate. With the rebalancing of our dividend, we have the capacity to deliver on our growth objectives in a strong macro market. Firstly, our gross operating capacity is anticipated to grow from our current 3.5 gigawatts to more than 7 gigawatts by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of about 16%. The strategy maintains investment-grade credit ratings, and we are planning to spend CAD 6.2 billion, with approximately 50% of that capital investment for cash contribution outside the five-year plan.
Northland's equity requirements are CAD 1.3 billion and are expected to be funded by CAD 600 million of cash flow, CAD 300 million of asset recycling, and CAD 400 million of corporate debt. In aggregate, the funding plan provides the financial flexibility to capture opportunities in a strong environment. Although we do not target a specific payout ratio, our dividend payout on free cash flow is anticipated to be between 40-60% over the long haul. Now let's focus on the returns and the result of our plan. We are targeting approximately a 6% compound annual growth rate in free cash flow over the five-year period through to 2030. I will walk through the major drivers based off of midpoint targets and impacts. We expect to add $1.25 per share of cash flow growth between our in-flight construction projects and new asset additions.
A large portion of this amount, $0.82, is attributed to Hailong, Baltic Power, and Jurassic Storage. As I discussed earlier, we are targeting approximately $0.04 per share in savings in G&A through organization and process streamlining. Our existing asset cash flows, however, are expected to decline net of operating cost savings by about $0.20 per share. This is driven by scheduled PPA step-downs in our existing international operating fleet. Our free cash flow is being further reduced by approximately $0.60 per share in interest, hedging, taxes, and other items. This is being primarily driven by the cessation of capitalization on some of our existing corporate hybrid debt and the assumed corporate debt issuance, which will add additional corporate expense, and that is about $0.20.
We also have the absence of a German tax ruling this year in 2025 that benefited this year by about $0.12 per share. The rest of the impacts are really related to hedging, mark-to-market, and other impacts. Consistent with our planned funding, we are expected to see impacts of asset recycling on our free cash flow. Now let's look to the overall. Our total shareholder return target is 10%, which is driven by the disciplined capital allocations and that free cash flow growth. To summarize, our financial framework will be underpinned by a resilient balance sheet and cash flow. We'll focus our capital deployment in core markets, and we've increased our return criteria to 12% or greater. Our shareholder returns are expected to grow in line with our growing cash flow.
I think, Christine, now I'll hand it back to you to close out before Q&A.
Thanks, Jeff, and thank you, everyone. As you've heard today, we remain firmly committed to our purpose, delivering long-term value for shareholders. We are grounded in our principles of deliver, strengthen, and grow, and we apply them consistently as we advance value-accretive opportunities across our business. We continue to deliver on our priorities. We are advancing Baltic Power, advancing Hailong. We are maintaining and improving operational excellence across our fleet. We are identifying and executing opportunities to enhance performance and streamline costs. We're high-grading our pipeline to ensure only the best opportunities move forward, and we are evaluating selective accretive acquisitions where they make sense. We have accomplished a great deal this year, and despite a challenging environment, we are confident in our ability to continue delivering value for shareholders. Northland has a strong future, and we are focused on creating value that lasts.
I think we have time now for Q&A, so I'll invite the team up with me, and we'll be happy to take your questions.
Okay, we're going to open up the floor for questions. There are two microphones in the room, and then on the website for those online, you can type your messages into the chat. I'll please remind you to please give your name and your firm before you ask your question. We'll take the first question.
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for hosting the event. It's Sean Stewart from TD Cowen. Christine or Jeff, in light of the share price correction over the last week, down 30%, we would have, and I guess based on what the reset year 2027 would look like, you'd be trading at maybe eight and a half times enterprise value to EBITDA. Can you compare your trading valuation to what development build multiples look like right now? Appreciating asset growth is the focus here, but why would buying back shares at this point not make sense for the company?
Yeah, look, I mean, we've gone through, and I know Christine and I have talked about this over the last couple of weeks, we are going through what we'd say is we want to set a financial framework that stands the test of time, and we have to manage through the long haul. We do see opportunities in front of us here. I think when we look at the financial framework and the return targets we've set, we think this will create shareholder value. We've looked at several different modeling options and different pieces, and we felt this was, over the long haul, the path to go. What I will say with share buybacks, and I talked about it and alluded to it in my prepared remarks, is share buybacks are a tool in the toolkit.
I do view them broadly in competition with growth capital. If they drive returns, the growth capital has to compete with that. Obviously, as we go through here, and we have two large-scale projects, we have to manage through all of that. I have to manage, and we have to manage the corporate balance sheet and liquidity. This is something that we will look at, and they will compete, or share buybacks will be looked at in competition with our growth capital, and it will be return-driven.
Thanks for that.
Hi, it's Nelson Ng from RBC Capital Markets. First question is, with respect to the Colosard gas development in Alberta, can you just talk about the contract structure? Also, I know we've been hearing a lot about the lead time required to purchase gas turbines. Can you just talk about timing and the contract structure?
Sure, I'll pick that up. Yes. Now?
With respect to the contract structure, as we continue to drive the development forward, we are in active conversations for off-take. We find there are many entities looking to fill their order book with a flexible asset like Colosard in the period when it will be going commercial. With respect to the supply chain, there are lots of options for a facility like Colosard. In this particular instance, we are looking at reciprocating engines for power generation, and that is where we're looking at driving at the moment.
Okay. My next question is just a quick one. In terms of North Sea One, you pre-contracted one-third of the power for five years. Can you just talk about why one-third and why only five years? Is it more about the current price levels? If it was higher, would we have seen a higher portion in the longer term?
Hi, I do not think I can see you. There we go. Okay, hi. Thanks very much for the question. The process for N1 recontracting evolved quite a lot, I would say, over the months that we were following it, because electricity markets in Germany have been going through some very different changes this year. We do see a big difference in, for instance, wholesale electricity prices for firm power in Germany being extremely high, but renewable power PPA prices declining. The question is, is this a long-term structural change, or is this a near-term, short-term change? We do not want to risk locking in everything at an overly low price. Instead, we decided to take a prudent approach here. We locked in a third of the revenue at the price that we could get in a very competitive process.
We are continuing to assess options for the remaining two-thirds. This gives us line of sight and stability over the time period that we need it and does not leave us regretting locking in at a poor moment by virtue of just the timing of our process.
Mark.
Mark Jarvi from CIBC. Sorry about that. Just Jeff, on the ranges you provided for the free cash flow per share growth, can you talk a little bit about some of the assumptions, particularly about what's required on the growth front to hit the bottom end of the range? What's kind of baked into hitting the top end of the range?
Yeah, as you look at it, it's a fairly tight range when you look at it. I talked to you about $1.20 of growth in aggregate, and $0.82 of that, you could kind of think about $0.80-$0.85, is under construction right now. You've got Jurassic BESS, Baltic, and Hailong, and those are in execution mode. Obviously, if we look at the rest of the circa $0.40 for the rest of it, what I would say is if you look at the capital frame and some of the projects we talked about, and Christine talked to this as well, we see more onshore investment here primarily through the five years. We've got obviously the opportunity we've seen in Poland, we've got Colosard, and some of the value enhancements.
What I would say is that growth isn't concentrated into one or two assets. We've got a few opportunities there that we think we can execute on and that are, relatively speaking, on a technical basis, lower execution risk. Kind of think of it as two-thirds, one-third. Two-thirds under construction, a third on the new projects we talked about, whether it be value enhancement, Colosard, or the opportunities we see here in front of us in Poland.
Just in terms of, I think if it's a 12% return, that talks about $1 billion of equity deployed. Is that the right way to think about what you've embedded in that? When you think about maybe deploying $1.3 billion, that gives you a bit of room in terms of buffer, in terms of timing of deployment?
Yeah, and I'll get back to the projects. You're right. When I went through, the equity requirements are about CAD 1.3 billion. When I talked to the gross CapEx, we said about 40%-50% of the CapEx is for COD outside the five years. When you go back to the next phase of growth after the construction projects, it's not concentrated into one asset per se or one or two assets. There's some flexibility in timing there, but we're confident we can execute on them. I mean, every project, until it's on, it's not on. Relatively speaking, what we see is lower execution to what lower execution we've got now, and we've got some flexibility on pacing.
We have assumed in the plan as well that there's some spending in the next five years for projects that will be COD after that. You take the burden of the CapEx in the first five years, but the revenue would come later.
Yeah, which is about 50%.
Just to follow up on that, when you think about where the payout ratio will be now, funding capacity, visibility on development projects, including some of the long-lead offshore wind projects, does the growth rate still hold at that 6% beyond 2030? Any indications around post-2030 would be helpful?
Yeah, and what I would say is it's fairly ratable. You look at us inclusive of in construction over these five years here, we're doubling capacity. I would expect us, as we get into the remaining 10 years, is to have largely an even flow of capital as we're going and keep executing on that flywheel or treadmill in a positive way and continue to execute that through the 10 years.
Thanks.
Hi, Rebecca Telcher from Newh aven Asset Management. I was just looking for a little bit more clarity on the dividend cut. If you talked about the delays of Hailong being short-term in nature and the timeline is still intact for 2027, why are you making a long-term decision like cutting the dividend and you're looking at that over the cash flow over a five-year period? You kind of mentioned areas of growth in Canada and Europe, and you don't really talk about any areas of growth in Colombia. Was monetizing some of those assets considered instead of cutting the dividend? I also just wanted to know the rationale of, let's just say, not issuing equity when the stock price was up almost 50% this year if you were looking to fund battery storage M&A.
I just wanted to have an idea of the rationale for the dividend cut. You talk about many tools in the toolkit, so I just wanted to have an idea of where the decision was made and how you came to that.
Yeah, there was a lot there. If we miss it, please, we can come back to that. Look, I think when we looked at it and we talked to this and went through my bridges, I think going through the decision and looking at what the growth trajectory was in front of us, you're right, we would have, with these construction projects, elevated payout in their year to a year and a half or however you want to do the math, but let's just say through next year.
I think when we looked at it, and I think Christine talked to this in her remarks as well, is we saw as we go through the growth opportunities and coming off of some of those adjustments, when you look at free cash flow, we saw our payout ratio at higher, elevated kind of average 90% through the plan. I think we looked at the opportunities in front of us, the opportunity set in Europe and Canada, and looked at different scenarios, felt this was the most accretive path forward and value creation and created the highest value for our shareholders through that. There was a lot of modeling and looking at this. As far as you talked about core areas and potential monetization, can't really get into specifics or anything along those lines.
When you look at the funding plan, we do assume some monetization and asset dispositions in that. Obviously, we want to be in a spot where we can make the right decision for our shareholders and the right value decision and have flexibility in that, not having to dispose of something for proceeds to fill a funding gap or anything along those lines. Obviously, we would look at what's core and non-core, where we see growth, and all of that will factor in. We have assumed some asset dispositions in the modeling.
Yeah, and so the equity component and looking at different pieces, like again, come back to is the organic cash flows that we saw, we felt, and looking at it and through the modeling, again, it was the highest value proposition when we looked at it and creation on a per-share basis. That is where we went with the decision with the dividend.
Paul Tesla to National Bank Capital Markets. Jeff, could you just touch on the capital recycling side of things, specifically as it pertains to your US development pipeline and where some of those projects sit within the interconnect queue stage and if you're able to effectively monetize those?
Yeah, and it's something that we're constantly looking at. I'd love to give you very specifics, but what we don't want to do is get into, we want to make sure we get the right value. We're not in public negotiations. That's exactly right. If we look at those options, I'll start with the pipeline itself. I think what it really comes down to is you look to early stage and to mid-stage, but you look to say, where do we see opportunities to retain this option and look at whether the regulatory regime, we get clarity on some of those options, or we progress them, or do people within their portfolio see that we could monetize? That's something we definitely would be open to or consider. That's why there is value there, whether it's in our hands or not.
I think if you look at the rest of the portfolio, I think we'll constantly be looking from early stage in the pipeline all the way through to operations. Where's the best holder? Do we see growth? Do we see value creation here from our side? Where else could we get this? Is the timing right in the market? All of those value decisions will come in basically from, say, early stage to later stage operating assets.
Hi, Rob Hopes, Scotiabank back here. Taking a look at the financing plan, you do have some partners' equity in there, which I'm assuming is Hailong and Baltic. As we look forward, where do partners fit into the funding strategy? Should we assume that if additional offshore is to be pursued, that would be where it would be focused? Could you look to partners on some onshore opportunities as well?
It's a great question. For offshore, our baseline plan is we will always be partnered if we're doing offshore projects. I think it's just a much better way to manage the risk, and I think it leads to just much better project delivery. That's our baseline approach for offshore. I would also layer on that I think it's a reality of doing business in Canada that many Canadian projects are requiring indigenous ownership in order to move forward successfully. I think we build that into our plan as well, that we will have at least in Canada indigenous partnerships, and then other opportunities we look at case-by-case basis. We are often approached about joining partnerships with other companies on different types of assets, and we assess them case-by-case as well to see if they fit our model, fit how we do business.
I think it's reasonable to assume when you're looking forward, everything in offshore we would partner, and onshore in Canada, most of it will be partnered in some way.
Hi, I'm Heidi Haupt from BNP Paribas. Thank you for the presentation. I just wanted to ask on the remaining Hailong commissioning plan, what kind of gives you confidence in a COD by 2027, and then confidence that you won't see any further commissioning delays given the issues so far? Thank you.
Sure. Thank you for the question. The issue we have on Hailong today is around the commissioning. It is not about the physical construction. As I mentioned, and you saw in the video, all of the foundations are now in, the export cables, the offshore substations are all in and in the process of being completed and finalized. The challenge we have really relates to our ability to access the turbines that are installed today and complete the commissioning work. Of course, it is now the winter period, so we will suffer some delays over Q4 and into Q1. We have a recovery plan, we have the people, vessels, and logistics and suppliers lined up to help us accelerate that work through Q2 next year. We are also planning to install the remaining 36 turbines next year.
We'll take the learning from the experience we've had so far and apply that to the commissioning plans for those turbines, which gives us confidence that we're going to be able to deliver as planned in 2027.
Turning to questions online, we have a couple, and I will combine them because they have similar themes. This one is for Jeff and Christine. I appreciate Northland is a capital-intensive business. Why did you not tell shareholders about the dividend change ahead of time, and are you surprised by the market reaction?
I can say hand on heart that we have been working on every possible solution that did not involve a dividend cut. We continued to work those options all the way through the fall. We were looking at many different options, and in all of it, we've been guided by what drives best value for shareholders. It came fundamentally to a very difficult set of circumstances then in order to take the decision with the board as to what we would do with the shareholders. In terms of timing, I guess we made the decision when we had to make the decision, and it was the right decision to make. In terms of how we could have told people sooner, we have general counsel in the room who gives me advice on how we can and cannot communicate things, and I take my advice there.
I can say sincerely that we were continuing to work on a plan that was different than this one, but that was with a very narrow path, and we were seeing if we could de-risk that path more and more through the fall. Unfortunately, we had other circumstances change that made that path impossible. While I appreciate that this news came as a surprise, it was also not welcome news for the management and board of Northland Power either.
Okay, next question. Christine, you mentioned about Asia. How are you thinking about that? Can you just repeat your thoughts on that in the future?
Right now, our near-term focus is on Canada and Europe, but we do have this very interesting and useful toehold, I would say, in Asia where we have two very good partners and we have a good reputation, and we have been working with the supply and service community there. As a result, that gives us a position in a market that is actually very difficult to break into in many ways. When you look at the growth in electricity demand in Asia in the future, and I don't know how much time any of you spend looking at Asia and what's happening in Asian power, but a lot of the wind locations are dislocated from where you would want to sell the power. In Southeast Asia, everybody wants to sell the power into Singapore, for instance.
Now the ASEAN has come together and committed to a very big interconnection project that will connect places with the resource to Singapore, which opens up a lot of opportunities for private power producers like us to come and develop projects. That will not be in the five-year horizon, and it will take much longer to mature. For right now, I would call that a watching brief. It is a low to no-cost option for us to keep active in a part of the world where we already do hold an asset and where we have an opportunity for longer-term growth in the future.
Thank you, Christine. Calvin, this one's for you. You mentioned on your plans for Canada for growth, and I apologize if I missed this, but can you tell us about how you're thinking about the Ontario procurements this year?
Pardon the Ontario.
LT2.
LT2. Good question. For those of you that are not aware of it, the LT2 window one is currently in flight. It is comprised of energy, and that RFP has already closed. Of course, capacity, which by December 18th will be closed for the RFP, is technology agnostic, both gas and battery. We have opportunities spread right across that spectrum, and probably one of the most difficult decisions will be, are we going to bid some of it or all of it? If you look at between gas and battery, very competitive from a pricing perspective. We will continue to look at this very closely, and it will be a game-time decision over the next six weeks as we continue to finalize those plans.
On the first part.
Pardon?
Can you bid?
Yes. We have, of course, we've already put one bid in window one for energy. Thank you, Christine.
Thank you, Calvin. That's it from online. Turn it back to the room.
Hi, thanks. It's Ben Pham, BMO Capital Markets. Can I go back to the dividend? We're probably going to stop talking about it after today. I'm not sure if it's a question for the board or the management team, but I'm wondering, you zoomed back to January when you started with Christine and then Jeff coming later. Did you always see a 90% dividend? It's clear from the whole investment community, ourselves at BMO, that we've totally got the numbers wrong going forward. Just within this span of seven, eight months, it seems like there's a lot of headwinds that popped up. Maybe Jeff came in, looked at the outlook, and it changed.
Going back then, though, did you always see 90% at the time and just kind of what happened, if not what happened in the last eight months that changed outlook so dramatically from our own expectations?
When I came in the door, I knew that I was taking a plan that had been built, and it takes a while to get your arms around everything happening inside of a company. When I came inside the door, I knew that things were going to be extremely tight for a year. The plan that I was shown was that then things cleared up pretty quickly after that and got into much more manageable territory. Underpinning that plan were a set of assumptions and a couple of things I think shifted against us and happened relatively recently. Anyway, it's an unfortunate series of events. I think that's the name of those children's books. We had a couple of things go on.
When I first started, we immediately could see that N1 contracting was going to roll off, and we wanted to be able to address that proactively, and we started a process. When the process started, it was massively oversubscribed. There was a huge amount of demand. By the time the process finished, it looked extremely different. That was a real-time example of markets shifting underneath our feet. When I look at, we rely on a number of different agencies to give us pricing forecasts for Germany, and then we argue with them all the time. We see a divergence in their forecasts that has been growing throughout the year and continues to grow into the future. That then causes you to take a step back and say, you know, what am I assuming when I'm looking at this five-year plan?
I will also say personally, I lived through our first half of the year, we had to reduce guidance downwards based on low wind conditions. The low wind conditions, we are advised, we can see from the data that they're historically low wind conditions. It causes me to then say, are we building the plan on the right foundation? Are we too aggressive in the planning? Because it's very tight, at least for part of the plan, and we have another piece of the plan start to wobble. I would say a layer on top of that is we have a cash, an injection into Hailong required next year that also then further constrains the plan. How much stress can the plan take until the plan stops being prudent?
That was really the reality that we became faced with sort of as we worked through this into the fall.
Thanks a lot for those comments. It makes a lot of sense. Maybe second question on offshore wind in Europe generally. Is it going to become more a merchant market long-term or just very short-term? Maybe Toby, you can chime in here. Is that where it's going? Is government not willing to stop these assets? And you have merchant assets as a portion of your business that 95% could change over time. Is that where the market's going?
I share a little bit of inside baseball with you. I came in the door, and one of the first things I said when I joined Northland is, oh, I think in Europe you need to have a merchant electricity trading arm. I was, oh no, we're not set up for that. We are not. We are not set up for that. I came from a company that did a lot of that, and so it was very much part of sort of breathing. The question is, I think it's a reasonable one, and we continue to have it. Right now, most of our assets are fully contracted, but as we're having assets roll off contract, how do we want to deal with that?
The baseline answer to that, if you had, when we were answering that question in April and May and June of this year was, we'll do new long-term PPAs. But those new long-term PPAs are not so great. So then the question is, do we instead take merchant exposure? That's a different approach than this company has historically taken. That would be a big change in strategy. It's not how we're currently built in and how we're currently planning to deal with it. But it is a real active question about what's the future in Germany. There are many offshore wind producers, not just us, who are talking to the German government about how this current situation is not sustainable and has to be addressed. So I think you will hear from many other companies similar things to what you're hearing from us.
Toby, I don't know if you want to add on to that.
Yeah, I think exactly as Christine says. I mean, certainly for the new build, so new opportunities, we see governments and regulators continuing to commit support to those future processes. In some areas, we've seen those auctions fail where they haven't offered sufficient support. We understand that lots of those governments are reviewing and are likely to come back with a support mechanism so that they can continue the development and build out of offshore wind in Europe. We expect that to continue. As Christine mentions, there is a question coming over time as more and more assets get to the end of their support mechanism or tariff period. What's the right commercial framework to make sure that those projects and those electrons continue to be supplied to the grid? I think that will develop over time.
The approach that we've taken, as you heard, is a prudent one. We have looked at the risks we're holding. We have looked at the opportunities in the market, and we have chosen a very sensible and prudent process going forward. As Christine and Jeff said, we will continue to keep that under review, and we may change our position over time or not. We will see how things develop.
We should add on to that, though, Toby, that for Hailong, the contract term is 30 years.
30 years.
We won't have that issue with Hailong. For Baltic Power, the contract term is.
25.
Also 25 years, whereas compared to N1, where the contract term was 10. So these are quite different circumstances.
Okay, we have two more questions from online. The first one is for Christine and Jeff again. How is management's compensation aligned with shareholders?
Yeah, so number one, I think it's about half of our compensation is delivered or driven by long-term incentive programs, which are ultimately driven by relative share price performance and value creation for our shareholders. As well, we have requirements for share ownership and the like. All of that aligns the interest. Ultimately, we are aligned to create shareholder value, drive a sustainable shareholder return and value creation measure through share price and returning cash to shareholders. It is through that long-term incentive program we are incentivized to obviously align with shareholders, create long-term shareholder value and value creation.
Thank you, Jeff. The next question I think is for the group, but how long has the value enhancement project process and evaluation been going on, and how mature would you say the projects and the opportunities are?
I can speak to that. We kicked off a global search, I would say, for value enhancement projects shortly after I joined. I think I sent out the first request on that in April. We had a gathering of all of our senior leaders to come with their best ideas. I think we did that, was that in May, I want to say? That was in May. We had everybody bring their best ideas then. We found actually the maturity was different. There were some parts of the organization that seemed to have been waiting anxiously for somebody, anybody to ask about those things, and they came sort of with dossiers ready to roll, whereas there were other parts of the organization who were not really believing how serious the opportunity was. Since then, teams have been working on each of the opportunities that we had.
They were given timelines and tasks, and they've been meeting regularly in order to advance those. We've had a project leader appointed within the organization who's been working on basically getting them all to a similar level of evaluation so that we could high grade amongst them and have the list that we talk about today. There are other projects that haven't made it on the list yet, but it doesn't mean that those projects won't happen. It just means that more work has to be done to understand them better. It might be that they're not the right project right now, but in a couple of years, they could be a very good idea. Those are ongoing. I would say that's an initiative that's been sort of bottom up and through this year.
Thank you, Christine. That's all the questions online. Any more in the room?
Hi, good morning. Tatiana from Van City Investment Management. Just I guess from a macro level, North America, the policy environment for renewables, I'm just wondering if you have any thoughts on that impacting the growth trajectory of the business. We have down south, of course, the rollback of the IRA and the Trump administration generally not really supportive of renewables. In Canada, I know it's a bit hot off the press, but I think it was last week, the last week or the week before, the budget was released and the Carney government had some climate incentives. Any thoughts on how that might benefit the business, the tax incentives for clean energy? I have a second question unrelated to the first.
I know you're bringing back on new gas and natural gas assets, and how is that going to impact the aspirations of the company to become net zero? Thanks. Great presentation this morning. I appreciate it.
Okay, thanks. There is a couple of things in there. One is climate policy. Climate policy in the U.S., I'm going to decline to comment on that. For us, we do not have a very large U.S. presence, and we do not intend to build a bigger one. I think you need to be at scale in the United States to make it really successful, and that is just not where we are focusing our attention. Within Canada, climate policy does matter. Of course, province to province, there are very different points of view on how the provinces are going to achieve their climate goals. We are in regular contact with government officials in all the provinces where we are seeking to do work and with the federal government. We see that across the board, there is a strong commitment to maintaining a very green grid.
The fact that we already have a green grid is no impediment to finding ways to bring on more renewables, more battery storage. You can see this push that a lot of people have related to offshore wind potentially in Nova Scotia, sort of along the same lines as that. At the same time, there is a very big need for gas-fired power, and there is a way to do that responsibly and well. I think in Northland, we exemplify that. We deliver natural gas-fired power responsibly and well. It is back to the trilemma we've always struggled with, where we want affordable, reliable, clean energy. Natural gas has a really big role to play in that, especially in Canada with the fourth largest natural gas resource under the ground and basically that abundant resource that is responsibly produced.
For us, we see an opportunity for natural gas in Canada. We are approached, by the way, very often about natural gas opportunities elsewhere in the world because of our history with natural gas. At this point, we are more focused on natural gas opportunities in Canada because we think they make a lot of sense in Canada and do fit with climate commitments. In terms of our commitments as a company, the goal is to be net zero, which means there can still be emissions. There just have to be offsets for those activities. That is very much on our mind as well as we are planning our future.
Okay, I think there's one last one that just came up online here. This one's for Jeff. What would the 2030 free cash flow per share look like without the negative impact from spending on growth projects beyond 2030?
Yeah, and I'll just kind of stand back, right? Because most of the, if you look in aggregate, most of the spend that we have for that, if you look at % as in capital, and wouldn't impact that. On average, on an absolute dollar term, I'm not going to, I won't do the conversion into the off-the-share count, but we'd look to spend in development, which is separate, that about CAD 40 million a year, give or take. The reality of it is that free cash flow measure that we have excludes development, excludes CapEx. It's the running assets. It really comes in when you look at the effect on the plan. It's really on the funding and the capital frame, not the free cash flow measure itself.
No more questions in the room? Okay, thank you very much, everybody, for coming today and your interest in Northland. We really appreciate you taking the time. I think that will conclude the day. For the executive roundtable discussions, we're going to move it up to start at 12:30. There will be some lunch back in the room out here. You can grab your boxes. You can come to the table, your tables if you like. We'll catch up with those. That's only for equity analysts and equity investors that will be part of the roundtable discussions. Thank you very much.