Good morning. My name is Mark, and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Q3 2023 conference call of Strathcona Resources Limited. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there'll be a question and answer session. For attendees on the conference call that would like to ask a question, please press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press star, followed by the number two on your telephone keypad. I would now like to introduce Rob Morgan, President and CEO of Strathcona, to begin the conference.
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Q3 2023 conference call of Strathcona Resources Limited. As mentioned by the operator, I am Rob Morgan, President and CEO of Strathcona. With me today is Connor Waterous, Senior Vice President and CFO, and Angie Lau, our Treasurer. Before we begin, please take note of the advisories regarding forward-looking information and non-GAAP measures included in our Q3 disclosure materials. At the end of the call, we will be taking calls from analysts. Strathcona is very excited to host our first conference call as a publicly traded company. We closed the acquisition of Pipestone Energy Corp on October third, twenty twenty-three, and Strathcona shares began trading on the TSX on October fifth, twenty twenty-three, under the symbol SCR. Waterous Energy Fund, Strathcona's controlling shareholder, retains an ownership position of approximately 91%.
As the Pipestone transaction closed after quarter end, please note, Strathcona's Q3 results do not include the contribution of Pipestone's assets. Pipestone's Q3 results have been filed separately and are available on SEDAR. Production for the Q3 of 2023 averaged approximately 147,000 Boe per day, up 3% from the Q2 . Production at our Cold Lake Thermal, Lloydminster Heavy Oil, and Montney segments averaged 58,000, 51,000, and 38,000 Boe per day, respectively. Q3 production was higher in the Cold Lake Thermal segment due to new wells coming online and improved base production performance at the Lindbergh property. Montney production increased due to additions from new wells and production returning to normal after an outage at a third-party operated processing facility late in the Q2 .
Lloydminster heavy oil production was down slightly from the Q2 , primarily due to planned turnaround activity at the four Saskatchewan thermal assets. During the Q3 , Strathcona tied in and began circulating steam at the Cold Lake Tucker asset on the H pad, consisting of eight new well pairs, the first new well pairs to be drilled in approximately five years. The H pad is expected to benefit from improved reservoir characterization versus legacy well pairs drilled previously, driving higher production and a lower steam oil ratio for Tucker into 2024. In the Montney, Strathcona also completed the expansion of its Groundbirch gas plant to 60 million cubic feet per day from 30 million, which we expect to fill with three new wells that were also completed in the quarter. Connor will now provide a financial overview.
Thank you, Rob. In the Q3 , Strathcona generated approximately CAD 290 million of total operating earnings and approximately CAD 155 million of free cash flow. Q3 free cash flow was roughly flat versus the Q2 , as the impact of higher oil prices was offset by slightly higher royalties, higher realized hedging losses, and higher CapEx. Strathcona ended the Q3 with total debt of approximately CAD 2.8 billion, which we expect to be roughly flat between now and the end of 2023, with the Q4 free cash flow largely being used to repay the assumed debt from the Pipestone transaction. Strathcona is on track to repay the bank term loan by the end of February 2024.
Strathcona's oil production for the Q4 of 2023 is approximately 80% hedged on a net after a royalty basis at an average WTI price of $78 bbl A summary of the company's risk management contracts is available in Strathcona's MD&A. Back to you, Rob.
Thank you, Connor. As part of our Q3 earnings release, we have updated guidance for the Q4 of 2023 and provided preliminary guidance for 2024. Strathcona expects its Q4 2023 production to be approximately 185,000 Boe per day, incorporating the Pipestone assets from closing on October 3, which resulting in 2023 annual production of approximately 155,000 Boe per day and full year capital expenditures of approximately CAD 1 billion. Looking into 2024, I am pleased to report that Strathcona's board of directors has approved a capital budget of approximately CAD 1.3 billion. Capital is expected to be allocated roughly evenly across Strathcona's three core operating areas. Of the total CAD 1.3 billion, approximately CAD 800 million is sustaining capital.
Approximately CAD 250 million is directed towards filling existing facility capacity and will contribute to near-term production growth. Approximately CAD 250 million is capital dedicated to long lead, debottlenecking, and brownfield facilities capacity expansion, which will contribute to growth in the longer term. On a combined basis, these expansion projects are expected to increase production capacity by up to 25,000 bbl per day above current capacities by the end of 2026, at a combined capital efficiency of approximately CAD 25,000 bbl per day. Strathcona expects 2024 production to be between 190 and 195 thousand Boe per day, weighted 77% to liquids.
The midpoint of this guidance reflects approximately 9% year-over-year production growth on Strathcona's 2023 legacy asset base, and approximately flat production on legacy Pipestone's full year, 2023 production of 33,000 BOE per day. The guidance for the legacy Pipestone assets reflects a disciplined capital program of approximately CAD 120 million, focused on optimization of base production, which is expected to result in a reduced base decline rate and enhanced future well economics. Back to you, Connor.
The company's 2024 capital budget is expected to generate approximately CAD 1.0 billion of free cash flow at $80 per bbl at WTI, assuming a $15 per bbl WCS-WTI differential, 0.73 USD/CAD, and $3 per MCF gas price, and is expected to be fully funded down to as low as approximately $40 per bbl WCS. These figures do not take into account the retirement of approximately CAD 150 million of previously disclosed call premiums and foreign exchange collars inherited from a previous transaction, neither of which are sensitive to oil and gas prices. Strathcona's board of directors has approved a debt target of CAD 2.5 billion.
The company intends to allocate 100% of its free cash flow toward debt paydown until this debt target is reached, after which the company is expected to provide further details of its shareholder return program. Back to you, Rob.
Thanks, Connor. Lastly, with this being our Q1 as a public company, we wanted to comment on some of the bigger picture priorities for our company in both the short and longer term. In the short term, we recognize that the market has been volatile since the close of the Pipestone transaction, and we expect it to continue to be volatile for some time as legacy Pipestone shareholders cycle out and new long-term investors begin to cycle in. We also recognize that many in the public markets are still not familiar with the unique characteristics of our company, and we are committed to increasing investors' knowledge of our business.
Strathcona was built with a focus on long-term value creation, and we are confident that if we remain focused on our core investment principles of compounding long-term value per share, managing the business with a margin of safety, and focusing on the items we can control, our share price and the long-term value of our assets should converge over time. Thank you very much for your time this morning, and we would be pleased to take any analyst calls.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please dial star one on your telephone keypads now to enter the queue. If you find your question is answered before it's your turn to speak, you can dial star two to cancel. Our first question comes from the line of Greg Pardy at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Morning, it's Justin Ho on for Greg Pardy. Thank you very much for taking my question, and congratulations on going public. So we do recognize that more detail will be provided on the mode of shareholder returns after you reach that CAD 2.5 billion debt target, as you touched on there, Connor. But broadly speaking, how should we be thinking about shareholder returns, especially when we think of the limited public float?
Sure. Thanks for the question, Justin. So, first, going back to our debt target, we sized that CAD 2.5 billion based on approximately 1x debt to EBITDA at a mid-cycle price of $70 WTI. Our plan is to use 100% of the free cash flow that we generate to get down to that level as quick as we can. Post which, our plan will be to flip the switch, so to speak, to send as much of the free cash flow that the business generates out to the shareholders of the business, post that.
While the board of directors has not yet approved a formal dividend, or other form of shareholder return plan, we think it will be the vast majority of free cash flow going back to shareholders.
Perfect. Thanks, Connor. Just to dig a little bit deeper into that, if I can. If you were to go the dividend route, would you view a suitable dividend policy as perhaps a base dividend supplemented by variables as your free cash flow covers the course?
That's right, Justin. Going back to Rob's comments about trying to manage the business with a margin of safety, the focus for the team and the board when we size that base dividend will be to make sure that it is still fully funded post-maintenance capital down to a very low trough point in the oil and gas price cycle. And then post-setting that base dividend, the balance of the capital sent back to shareholders will likely be in the form of a variable dividends. Although you know, based on where our share price is at the time, a buyback may make sense.
Great. Thank you. I'll turn it back.
Thank you. Just as a reminder to participants, if you do wish to ask a question, please dial star one on your telephone keypads now. The next question comes from the line of Menno Hulshof of TD Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thanks, and good morning, everyone. I'll just start with a question, I believe for Rob on the 8-well pair pad at Tucker. What can you tell us about the well design and how it differs from what Husky was doing back in the day? And maybe as a follow-up to that, what should we expect in terms of the overall profile for Tucker into 2024 and 2025 from a production and SOR perspective?
Thanks for the question, Menno. So you know, what we've actually done is, you know, we've drilled slightly longer horizontals and have provided for a provision of inflow control on those wells as necessary to help support conformance along the wellbore. We've also, where we've characterized the drilling of these wells, I think back in the day, given some early time struggles back in the day that Husky drilled the wells, they probably used a bit more of a margin of safety drilling the next levels of wells. So we're really trying to optimize the amount of good quality reservoir above these individual wells. So, you know, we expect these wells to come on at a much stronger steam oil ratio than the overall average of the field.
I think when you look at the current time with the amount of steam we're injecting, not really getting new production, the steam-oil ratio moving up into that 6 range, you know, we expect that over time, bringing that filling that capacity we have at Tucker, that we can start to move that steam-oil ratio down into the 4-5 range.
Terrific. Thanks for that, Rob. Then maybe moving on to the Pipestone assets. You have a few months under your belt now, a bit longer. What have you seen in terms of positive or negative surprises, if any, and how is the integration going so far?
So I think the integration is going very well. We have a number of new team members here at Strathcona, consistent with how we have incorporated corporate acquisitions we've done in the past. I think on the asset side, you know, we have intentionally decided, and we've communicated that we intend to, you know, hold production there flat, basically really optimize, focus on base production. I think the Pipestone team did an excellent job of growing the asset base very quickly, and our focus will be, as we've done with almost every one of our acquisition, take our time, really evaluate the opportunities in the asset, and then move forward with perhaps additional capital, as we move through 2024 into 2025.
Terrific. Thanks again. I'll turn it back.
Thank you.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Dennis Fong at CIBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. The first one here is just around cash costs. As you further deploy CapEx to backfill existing facility capacity, as well as implement a waste heat recovery unit at Orion, can you characterize approximately what the targets happen to be for unit cash costs or cost savings that you expect through those various projects?
Sure, Dennis. Thanks for the question. So, first speaking on the waste heat recovery project that we're currently in the middle of on our Orion project, we forecast finishing the tie-in of that waste heat unit, which will add 16 megawatts of power or a little less than 90% of the power needs of the project, call it in the first half of the calendar 2025 year. And we think that will work towards shrinking the go-forward go-forward field operating costs on that project by about CAD 2 per bbl going forward.
I think a bit more broadly speaking, one of the reasons we're very excited about the various drill to fill and larger major expansion projects that we have in our 2024 capital program, is that when we look at almost all of the transport and processing costs and the vast majority of our non-energy field operating costs, the vast majority of those costs are fixed.
So, you know, as we, you know, drive towards a 6%-8% year-on-year growth in volumes, when a meaningful portion of our cost structure is fixed, plus, you know, the line of sight we see to decreasing our cohort power costs with that waste heat unit, you know, that really sets us up for a better breakeven price, and an ongoing margin on the business going forward.
Great, thanks. Appreciate that color. Shifting gears, I'd like to focus in on Kakwa here. You've shown a fairly good RLI from the Montney broadly. Can you talk about some of the initiatives that you're pursuing to bolster inventory in the region, specifically in Kakwa, especially as you're keeping Pipestone relatively flat for the time being, while you evaluate that asset further?
Thank you, Dennis. So, part of what we are actually working on is one of the, you know, minor transactions we did. We've done actually a bit of a land swap within the quarter, where we looked at swapping out some Mannville rights that we had for additional Montney rights in and around our core area. Again, bolstering the number of locations we would have on a go-forward basis. And within the Montney acreage itself, as we continue to expand out, not only exploring our acreage across the asset base, but also looking at the three benches that we are testing and how to optimize the spacing, if you will, and the drilling of those benches to optimize overall recoveries from the asset.
So, we continue to look at, on our subsequent pads, how we space the sequencing of the individual wells within the three benches, and, also always looking to optimize our completion techniques, when it comes to our frack spacing and, even sand concentration. So it's an ongoing process, as you know, but, you know, we've been pretty happy with our progress, that we've made in terms of evaluating the benches, as well as, any revisions to our completion techniques.
Yeah, I think what I'll put forth further, on that, Rob, is, when we, you know, think about our, our Kakwa asset, for most of the, you know, first, you know, four or five years that we spent, drilling it, it was, it was really focused on the, on the top two layers in our Middle Montney. Over the last couple of years, we've, you know, moved to, de-risk the third layer on that Middle Montney, and have seen a, you know, much stronger, much stronger condensate, gas ratio.
And then going forward into the 2024 year, part of our 2024 budget is to start proving up the lower Montney in Kakwa, which will mean that there will be, you know, four separate layers with a production at Kakwa. And since we can drill all four of these layers all off the same pad, we think that there will be some very large savings on a per well basis going forward. And we've generally seen that the lower benches have seen higher condensate gas ratios.
Great, thanks. Appreciate the color. I'll turn it back.
Thank you. We have a third question from Menno Hulshof of TD Securities. Please go ahead, your line is up.
Hello again. Thanks for letting me back into the queue. I just thought I'd ask a question on the float, since it's a question I'm getting fairly often. Can we just get a refresh on your thought process for increasing the float and overall liquidity over time? And, of course, the big potential driver of future liquidity is Waterous Energy Fund. Is there a scenario where we could see the fund trim its position a bit sooner than later to address that?
Thanks for the question, Menno. So, the way we've thought about the float is, you know, maybe in call it, call it 2-3 different stages. In the short term, obviously, as folks know, the legacy Pipestone business was, you know, about 70% of it was held by the three big shareholders in that business. And we think just naturally, you know, there is gonna be some turnover within that big three legacy Pipestone shareholder base over time. And so just on a natural basis, the pro forma float of the business should grow.
In the longer term, you know, how Waterous Energy Fund has, you know, has thought about monetizing the stake that it currently holds in the business has largely not, you know, been through pure secondary sales of its shares, but will likely come in the form of a step-by-step liquidation of the various partnerships that it's managed. And, you know, that's likely gonna take place or call it the over the next 2-3-year timeframe, post which, you know, the business will have a very broadly held stock.
You know, prior to that, we certainly think that there's some chance that we can use the public currency that we now have, you know, as a form of purchase price consideration, you know, for a given transaction that we find. But the piece that we'll be laser-focused on there is making sure that it's a value per share, a creative transaction, which we recognize will be quite a high bar to clear, you know, for the business in the short term.
And then, finally, I just to be precise in terms of, you know, how the fund might trim its stake in the business in the short term, we don't think that there's any, you know, plan or thought for the fund, you know, to start doing any pure secondary sales at the current stock price.
Appreciate the thoughts, Connor. That's it for me.
Thank you. As there are currently no further questions in the queue, I'll hand the floor back to Rob for the closing comment.
Thank you. Once again, we are very excited with our debut as a publicly traded company, and want to thank you all for your interest this morning, and I wish you all the best for the day. Thank you again for joining.
Thank you. This now concludes the conference. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.