Good afternoon. My name is Ludy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Sagicor's
Great. Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Sagicor's second quarter 2024 results. Before we begin, I'd like to highlight our documents and results are available under the Investor Relations tab on our website at sagicor.com, which includes the financial statements in MD&A. New this quarter, we have published our first supplemental information package, which includes additional disclosures as well as drivers of earnings analysis and a core earnings measure. These materials, along with the press release and the link to our live webcast, is available on our website. This conference call is open to the financial community investors, the media, and the public, with a reminder that the Q&A period is reserved for the financial research analysts.
I will begin by referring you to the cautionary language and disclaimers in our materials and public filings regarding the use of forward-looking statements and the use of non-IFRS financial measures and ratios, which may be mentioned as part of our remarks today. I would also like to remind the audience that actual results regarding forward-looking information could differ materially, and please note that a detailed discussion of Sagicor's risk factors is provided in our MD&A, which is available on SEDAR+ and on our website. Discussion of the assumptions underlying our expectations is provided in our filings, earnings release, and in our other public statements. Unless otherwise noted, all dollar amounts referenced will be in US dollars, consistent with our reporting practice. Joining me today is our President and CEO, Andre Mousseau, our Chief Financial Officer, Kathy Jenkins, and Anthony Chandler, our Chief Controller.
We'll begin with prepared remarks by Andre and Kathy, followed by a Q&A session. With that, I will pass the call to our President and CEO, Andre Mousseau.
Thank you, George, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to join us today. We're very pleased to be here on this call, being able to walk through our results in another solid quarter, aided by our new supplemental information package. This core earnings analysis framework is something that we've talked about delivering since the advent of IFRS 17, and we believe it'll significantly help our investor base and the investment community at large, understand our results better, really show the earnings power of each of our businesses, and have a clearer picture of our overall results. In a quarter where we saw some actuarial volatility, Sagicor delivered $25 million of core earnings to shareholders in Q2. This was within the range of our expectations and was aided in part by positive aggregate insurance experience from our operating subsidiaries.
It broadly represents the core earnings generation, run rate of our business right now. We did see negative market experience that was due to differences in changes of our mark-to-market valuation of our assets and the calculated value of our liabilities, as dictated by IFRS 17. We view this experience as transitory and subject to reversal over time and therefore view core earnings as better representative of the performance of our business. This core earnings shows that we are on track with our business model since onboarding our Canadian segment in 2023 and provides a solid platform upon which we can grow our earnings, return on equity, and ultimately value to shareholders in the year to come. I'll now hand the call over to Kathy to discuss both the new disclosure and our results in detail. Kathy?
Thank you, Andre, and hello, everyone. As Andre said, it is a pleasure to be able to walk through our new disclosure framework, which includes a supplementary information package with core earnings by segment, as well as a more user-friendly MD&A. Within the supplementary information package, you will see we have calculated core drivers of earnings by segment for each of the last six quarters, those being the quarters under the implementation of IFRS 17. It is really the last three quarters since the acquisition of our Canadian segment in Q4 2023 that represent the earnings power of the business that we have today. One of the most important things this framework does is distill out the market volatility, which is proving to be pervasive under IFRS 17, where the standard has changed to have asset prices and liability prices be calculated separately.
Imprecision in the liability calculation relative to asset price movement has created volatility in net earnings, and while we will continuously attempt to refine our calculations to minimize this volatility, it may never be eliminated. So this framework allows us to see through the volatility and make sense of this quarter, where we saw a net income loss due to this volatility, but also quarters like Q4 of 2023 and Q1 of 2024, when we saw net income that was higher than our overall economic profitability due to positive market experience. This framework also allows us to drill down on insurance experience, which we do view as a core representation of our profitability. In aggregate, we had just slight positive emergence in Q2, while in Q1, we had negative insurance emergence across each of our operating segments.
This explains why our core earnings in Q1 were lower than our run rate expectations, while in Q2, we were just ahead of it. So let me talk about the market experience before getting into the segment financials. It was $55 million overall. $29 million of it was the U.S.A., of which $9 million was related to our holdings in Playa shares, and $20 million was related to the fixed income portfolio. We view our Playa shares as a solid long-term investment based on our previous ownership of hotels that we sold into Playa for shares. We have a view that the net asset value exceeds its current trading price and will appreciate over time. The remaining $20 million was due to our liability calculation, not matching asset price movement, which was actually quite benign in the quarter.
This $20 million negative movement we view as noise, and in fact, is almost an exact reversal of positive market experience in Q1. Other segments showed negative emergence as well. Canada had $8 million of negative emergence, as on an accounting basis, our assets are longer than our liabilities, and therefore, we will see a positive bias to asset prices and negative bias to interest rates. So today, halfway through the third quarter, with Canadian interest rates falling, that market experience we could expect to have reversed. Similarly, SLI had negative experience due to a movement in the Trinidad yield curve, which we would not expect to persist and which may reverse itself as well. Isolating our insurance experience, it was mixed, and so I will cover that in each operating segment.
Broadly, though, if you tax effect our insurance experience gain and take that out of our core earnings, that will get you to about $23 million, which we would say is representative of our current run rate core earnings to shareholders generation per quarter before the effect of the refinancing of our term loan in Q2. So with that, Sagicor had a solid second quarter on a core basis. Core earnings to shareholders was $25 million, an increase year-over-year, resulting from positive core results in our Sagicor Canada segment, offset by additional interest costs to fund the ivari acquisition. Our Sagicor Life and Sagicor Jamaica segments grew year-over-year due to growth in short-term business associated with repricing and improved insurance experience on long-term business. While Sagicor Life USA's core earnings to shareholders declined due to negative core insurance experience.
Net loss to shareholders for the quarter was $40 million, driven by $55 million of market experience losses, and was also affected by one-time costs related to the extinguishment of a portion of our original funding for the ivari transaction from the proceeds of the Canadian bond dollar issuance. Both of these items are excluded from core earnings. Revenues of $1.2 billion year to date show stable growth across all segments, with strong performances in the quarter from Sagicor Jamaica and Sagicor Canada. New business CSM of $40 million was spread relatively evenly across our segments, with Sagicor Life USA experiencing a decrease compared to Q2 2023, as production was increased in the same quarter last year to take advantage of a more favorable, competitive, and interest environment. I will now provide more details on each of our segments.
Sagicor Canada had a solid quarter with strong sales, primarily in universal life insurance, resulting in new business CSM of CAD 11 million for the quarter. Core earnings to shareholders of CAD 26 million for the quarter was above expectations, with the segment benefiting from insurance experience gains. Net income to shareholders of CAD 20 million for the quarter, compared to core earnings to shareholders, was primarily lower as a result of market experience losses from the movement of interest rates, offset slightly by positive experience in the equity markets. Total net CSM ended Q2 at CAD 566 million, a modest increase quarter-over-quarter in Canadian dollars that was offset by currency fluctuations to end the quarter slightly lower in US dollars. Sagicor Life USA generated $211 million of new business production in the second quarter, which was on track with management expectations.
Core earnings to shareholders for this segment was $8 million, which was behind expectations due to insurance experience losses of $4 million. Net loss to shareholders was $27 million for the quarter, driven by market experience losses. Market experience losses were composed of a $9 million after-tax mark-to-market loss on shares of Playa Hotels & Resorts held in this segment, and $21 million of mark-to-market increase of liabilities relative to assets, driven by liability calculations that do not exactly match asset value changes under IFRS 17. These losses were a reversal of gains seen in Q1 2024. Total net CSM grew 1% quarter-over-quarter to $213 million, driven by new business CSM of $10 million, offset by insurance experience losses and amounts recognized for service provided.
Sagicor's share of Sagicor Jamaica's core earnings to shareholders in Q2 was $9 million, a 32% increase over a weak comparator period in the prior year. Total net CSM increased 2% quarter-over-quarter, with strong new business CSM of $9 million. Organic CSM movement also benefited from $3 million of insurance experience gains due to favorable persistency on universal life. Sagicor Life saw growth in insurance earnings over the prior quarter and a decreasing trend in onerous contracts and insurance experience losses, which benefited from adjusting product offerings and repricing initiatives. Core earnings to shareholders of $8 million benefited from stable long-term insurance business, as well as above-budget experience in short-term businesses, which was partially offset by lower income in the non-insurance businesses. Net income to shareholders was $2 million for the quarter.
This result was impacted by market experience losses from the change in interest rates I mentioned in Trinidad and Tobago. The segment benefited from a one-time gain resulting from the disposition of the Curaçao operations, which was excluded from core earnings. Total net CSM was $232 million, which was flat quarter-over-quarter, largely a result of inorganic CSM movement resulting from the disposition of Curaçao. Organic CSM grew by $8 million, driven primarily by new business CSM of $10 million.
Returning to the consolidated picture, our financial leverage ratio was essentially stable quarter-over-quarter, ending at 26.8%, and our life insurance businesses remain well capitalized, with a group LICAT ratio of 138%, which increased 2% points quarter-over-quarter, and a consolidated MCCSR ratio at 309%, which increased 6% points quarter-over-quarter. This quarter, we are updating our previous guidance on key measures. We are adjusting our core net income to shareholders for 2024 to account for the $9 million in year-to-date negative experience. So we are now guiding to core net income to shareholders to be between $80 million and $90 million.
New business CSM, which is net of reinsurance, is expected to be between $160 million and $180 million, a slightly lower number, reflecting the current interest rate environment. I would note that in prior quarters, we disclosed this number on a gross basis, but I believe a net basis is more appropriate. Our 2025 target for core net income to shareholders growth remains at 10%+ growth beyond 2024 levels, and thereafter, we project a target core return on shareholders' equity over the medium term of 13%+, along with a core dividend payout ratio of 30%-40%. Our book value per share was a bit affected by depreciation in the Canadian and Jamaican dollars to the US dollar, and finished the quarter at $600...
Sorry, US dollar, $6.36, or Canadian dollar, CAD 8.71. Our deployable capital or shareholders' equity plus net CSM to shareholders was $2 billion or US dollars, $14.51, or Canadian dollars, CAD 19.86 per share. With that, I will hand back, hand you back to Andre.
Thank you very much, Kathy. I'll close out our prepared remarks by discussing our corporate achievements in the quarter. Sagicor continued excellent progress on many of our strategic initiatives to optimize our balance sheet, enhance our systems, and drive operational synergies from our businesses. We capitalized on our newly achieved investment-grade ratings to issue our first bond in the Canadian market and expand and reprice, in our favor, our revolving credit facility, using the proceeds to repay a significant portion of our term loan taken on in conjunction with the ivari acquisition. These issuances and repayments net will be saving us approximately $7 million a year in annualized interest costs. We've made several executive appointments, elevating key team members to senior positions, overseeing multiple jurisdictions, as well as bringing in new talent to drive organizational change.
To oversee some of these initiatives in North America, I've taken on the role of President and Chief Executive Officer of ivari in Canada, in addition to my roles at Sagicor Financial and at Sagicor Life USA. We also brought on board a new director, Kathleen McLaughlin, and we're looking forward to her contributions, going forward, which we're enjoying already. With these initiatives, we are confident about our ability to expand our return on equity in 2025 and beyond. We're also pleased to have announced our 19th consecutive quarterly dividend to shareholders since our listing on the TSX, and our 3rd consecutive dividend at $0.06 per quarter or an annualized $0.24 per year.
We have accelerated our pace of share buybacks in recent weeks and months as our share price has remained at a significant discount to book value, and even more significant discount to book value plus embedded future value of profit through CSM, and we continue to view this as an excellent use of shareholder capital. With that, we are ready to start the Q&A period. So operator, please open up the lines for questions.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session.
... To ask a question, you may press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the number two. One moment please, for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Meny Grauman with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. First off, I want to thank you for the expanded disclosure. It's, it's much appreciated. In terms of starting off, I'm curious about the change in guidance. If I understood you correctly, it sounded like it was really more of a backward-looking statement or adjustment, not really sort of signaling anything about the coming two quarters. So I just wanted to confirm that.
So thank you, Meny. I'd confirm that you have that correct. You look at where we are post the refinancing of the debt in Q2, and we look at our core run rate earnings generation on a quarterly basis of being $24 million-$25 million right now, excluding, and that's before insurance experience. And so that's quite consistent with the original guidance, which was $90 million-$105 million. You know, our view would continue to be that we have no reason to believe that there's going to be material deviations on insurance experience in the second half of the year, on either side.
And so when we look at it and say, "Okay, net, it's been $9 million negative for the first two quarters of the year," our best estimate is to take our original range and ratchet it down by $9 million. And so then just kind of rounding and getting to round numbers, we take it to $80 million-$90 million. And the underlying profitability that's driving that thinking hasn't changed, and the view for an increase, a meaningful increase on that in 2025, remains unchanged as well.
Got it. That's helpful. And then if I just translate that into the segments themselves, I'm wondering, you know, is it just as straightforward as looking at the individual segments and adjusting the insurance experience there to get a better sense of the run rate, or, or is there some other detail there that you would highlight in terms of, you know, translating what you're seeing at the consolidated level to the segments?
I think that's actually the right mechanics. So if you go through and take a look at the first half in aggregate for each of them, look at core earnings and then back out insurance experience, that's going to be pretty representative of our view of overall profitability. You know, there may be some deviations here and there by $2 million, but in aggregate, that's going to be about right. You know, we do see ourselves investing capital later in the year in our U.S. business to support a little bit more rapid growth than what we've seen in the first half of the year.
So there might be a slightly more upward tilt to the U.S. business in the second half of the year relative to the first. But overall, the methodology that you mentioned would be about right. Got it. And just to clarify, apologies if I missed it, just in terms of the U.S. business, specifically understanding the core insurance
Mm-hmm.
Just to understand what's driving that, and it's, it sounds like you, so you have confidence that that's not going to persist, but just wanted to better understand what, what gives you confidence in, in that assessment? Well, part of what gives me confidence in the persistence is that we saw different, we saw the emergence come out of different pieces of the book, and so that in a sense tells you that that there's no one particular problem. Now, there are a couple instances that that did repeat. They weren't the main drivers. So, as with all of our assumptions, we're going to relook at it in Q3. But when we get in under the covers and see what it was in Q1 versus Q2, they were different. So in the first quarter, the majority of the experience loss was mortality on the older back life book
But then, we saw a little bit of lapse, and a little bit of mortality, very unusually in our annuity book. There's little mortality risk in the annuity book, but it can happen particularly in an interest rate environment, where rates have gone up, and asset prices have gone down, because on an annuity, when there's a mortality event, you waive a surrender charge. And so, it's unusual, but it, but it came through in the second quarter. Because when we look down and get a more granular view, we see that, it's different pieces of noise. We don't view it as being a material, ongoing issue.
But, as with all of our businesses, we're gonna go and sharpen our pencils for the third quarter and make sure that the reserves are appropriate.
Thanks so much.
Once again, if you would like to ask a question, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Gabriel Dechaine with National Bank. Please go ahead.
Hey, good afternoon. I just want to follow up on the fixed annuities business a bit more. And you talked about, you know, well, sharpening your pencil, I guess, on—well, that's more of a reserve thing, but just the sales outlook. You've, you know, you did the refinancing, and your capital position is much more, you know, comfortable in the U.S. to facilitate growth. So what kind of volumes should we be expecting, and is it like ramp up Q3, Q4 kind of thing?
We would guide towards a ramp up in Q3 and Q4. You know, our liquidity position improved greatly with that refinancing.
Mm-hmm.
In June, and so, you know, we were able to get comfortable with putting our foot on the gas a little bit more. We did do that for the first half of Q3. You know, with the recent, you know, big move up in asset prices and move down in interest rates, we've dropped crediting rates as a lot of the competitors have, and to preserve spread. And so, we've stepped back a little bit just in the last couple of weeks.
But overall, we would guide Q3 and Q4 production to be, you know, in the ZIP code of 150% of what it was in the first half of the year.
Got it. Thanks. And then the just to dive a bit more back into these experience items and the guidance, I guess. So if I if I understand you correctly, the guidance reduction is tied to experience items that have been going the wrong way in the first half. And, you know, it's a mishmash of experience items, mortality in the first quarter, lapse and a bit of mortality this quarter. And that's pretty much it?
Yeah, and you have the gist of it, right. Those specific comments were about the U.S. business. If you look through elsewhere, Q2 was a lot better than Q1. You know-
Yeah.
We saw for the first time in a number of quarters, the experience get to just about flat, for Sagicor Life in the Southern Caribbean. And if you remember, we did strengthen reserves in Q4, to make that right. So we're pleased to see it get back to where we wanted it to, in the second quarter. You know, the Canadian business had a very positive just claims emergence in Q2 relative to expectations. You see the positive $7 million there.
Yeah.
You know, we don't necessarily expect that to persist.
And then I guess just to dive into the lapse issue a bit more specifically, like, can you tell me why that's taking place? I mean, maybe that's a dumb question, but last quarter, if I recall correctly, there was some negative experience related to crediting rates, where on renewal, you would assume a certain crediting rate, and then, as it turned out, you have to pay higher crediting rates to retain the business. And despite that, the lapses are still picking up. Maybe I'm, you know, mischaracterizing-
No, no, no.
mischaracterizing, but-
You're talking about the right commercial dynamic that we were talking about. What we did last year was we instituted renewal commissions to encourage renewals and reduce lapses. We strengthened reserves to account for that, and it came out of the CSM. That was the effect of our pulling the lever to bring lapses down towards what our projections were. It definitely moved in that direction. In Q1, it was almost right on top of our assumption. In Q2, it bumped up a little bit again, and that's where you see $1 million or $2 million of negative emergence in that second quarter.
So, it is an item that's subject to chunkiness and some noise, but, you know, if a pattern starts developing, there are commercial levers that we can pull. So this is something, you know, optimizing our renewals on the annuities is something that we're paying really close attention to.
Okay. Yeah, sorry to belabor this point, but it's an, you know, big growth driver of your business.
Yep.
If you put through higher renewal commissions in order to increase persistency?
Yes, that's right.
That needed a higher reserve for future renewals, I guess, renewal costs.
Correct.
The lapse, lapses were still coming in higher than expected this quarter, so you have to make an... Yep.
In Q2, the lapses were much lower than we saw in Q2, Q3 or Q4 of last year.
Okay.
They were still a little above what our ideal estimate would be. So we're looking at, you know, is that noise, or are there more commercial levers that we should pull, or should we just change our assumption?
Got it. And then if you did have to change your assumption, would that go through the CSM or would there be a P&L?
You know, that's where you start looking at cohort by cohort basis. It would be like if you look at the experience from last year, it would more be to CSM than to P&L. But-
Got it.
It would be a combination of both.
Okay, great. Appreciate the detail. Enjoy the rest of your summer.
Thank you.
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Mr. George Sipsas for closing remarks.
Great. Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. A replay of this call will be available for one month on our website, and a transcript will be posted as soon as available. If you do have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to any one of us. With that, thanks again for your participation and interest today. Have a great day, everyone.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.