SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX:SRU.UN)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 11, 2023

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the SmartCentres REIT Q1 2023 conference call. I'd like to introduce Peter Slan. Go ahead.

Peter Slan
CFO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Good afternoon and welcome to our first quarter 2023 results call. I'm Peter Slan, chief financial officer, and I'm joined on today's call by Mitchell Goldhar, SmartCentres' executive chair and CEO, and by Rudy Gobin, our executive vice president of portfolio management and investments. We will begin today's call with some comments from Mitch. Rudy will cover some operational items, and I will review our financial results. We will be pleased to take your questions. Just before I turn the call over to Mitch, I would like to refer you specifically to the cautionary language about forward-looking information, which can be found at the front of our MD&A materials. This also applies to comments that any of the speakers make this afternoon. Mitch, over to you.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Thanks, Peter. Good afternoon and welcome everyone. We kicked off 2023 on a much higher note than we experienced just one year ago. Operational results continued to improve, driven by Canada's best retailers, driving higher consumer traffic to our convenient open-format centers. Occupancy improved to 98% from 97.2 in the prior year. Renewals are up 3.4%, NOI improving by 4.3%, and collections in excess of 99%. All in all, retailers who set the agenda and who make up our core retail base are investing in their physical platforms in the form of renovations, expansions, e-com fulfillment integration, and new stores. Toronto and Montreal premium outlets are fully leased, with 12-month rolling sales now exceeding 2019 levels. Rudy will get into the operational details in a few minutes.

On the land use permission front, so far this year, we achieved residential zoning approvals in 3 projects, which added yet another 3.4 million sq ft to our future. Two are in Ontario and one is in Quebec. We continue to stay focused on getting valuable permissions, laying the groundwork for providing us with ready-made options for future growth. Recall that in 2022, we achieved over 6.1 million sq ft of new mixed-use permissions in urban locations with high demand for housing. 2023 is off to a great start, ahead of last year's pace. I will remind you that these proposed developments are on lands we already own, sit in the midst of highly populated communities in every major market across Canada.

You can read the details of many of our developments planned for in the portfolio in our MD&A. I will not go through them all here, except to say that Transit City 4 and 5 sold out condos at VMC, 1,050 units will all be closed this year. The Millway purposely built rental building here at the VMC is near completion with occupancies already commencing. ArtWalk, our new condo at VMC, is sold out of the released units, and pre-construction mobilization will commence within 60 days. Le Musto, our purpose-built rental in the Greater Montreal area, is 76% leased and is expected to be leased out by October, ahead of schedule. Our 240,000 sq ft industrial initiative in Pickering is complete, and the first tenant for half the building has moved in.

In Ottawa, our 402 unit seniors residence, which is under construction, has been delayed because of financial challenges of our partner, which are close to being resolved. In root of that, we have taken over the development and construction management contracts. Earthworks are now complete and construction will commence within 2 months on our townhouse development with our partners in Vaughan Northwest. With respect to self-storage, we opened our eighth in this quarter, a 133,000 sq ft Brampton facility on the surplus lands we own at Kings Point Plaza. 2 others are under construction in the GTA, Whitby and Markham. We have commenced discussions with potential new partners and buyers of selected assets within the portfolio, which will assist in funding development, debt reduction and diversification.

While only a small part of the portfolio, we see this as an ongoing capital recycling program, which will not only strengthen our balance sheet, but de-risk future cash flow streams. Once again, you can see this current construction activity in our expanded disclosure in the MD&A, as well as a list of additional projects scheduled to commence construction in the next two years. While we have delayed the start of a few projects owing to the current market conditions, our efforts in obtaining additional land use permissions, such as residential, continues in the normal course. On the financial side, Peter will provide a full update in a minute, but let me emphasize a few of the more pertinent elements. Maintaining our conservative balance sheet remains a significant priority for us, along with maintaining a significant unencumbered pool of assets, which now stands at CAD 8.7 billion.

Our respectable debt level at 43.2% is important to us, along with maintaining significant liquidity and the strong support from our partners and lenders, all firmly in place. We are committed to doing the right thing for the long term. Like decisions made in the past resulting in our strategic real estate, current occupancy levels, and our strong tenant mix and rents collected, so is the approach to decisions taken today to ensure a stable and sustainable growth tomorrow. Very recently, doing the right thing has been encapsulated in the term ESG, environmental, social, and governance. A concept that has been sweeping the corporate world. For us, ESG is just a different way of describing what we have been doing all along.

It is woven into the fabric of our organization and how we oversee our business, interact with our tenants, and engage our associates and communities. Of course, it also means careful consideration for the environment. Our three-year action plan, in which we are developing and implementing our ESG strategy, is posted on our website, and I invite you to assess our portfolio, where you will see ESG principles applied throughout. On a final note, I would like to once again offer my thanks and appreciation to our exceptional team of associates for their commitment and dedication to delivering on this long-term vision of improving the lives of the communities we serve every day. With that, I will pass the call over to Rudy.

Rudy Gobin
EVP of Portfolio Management and Investments, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Thanks, Mitch. Good afternoon, everyone. I'll just touch on a few of the things Mitch has said and give a little bit of an operational update. The 1st quarter continued to build on the momentum of last year with strong interest from many of our dominant retailers who shape the open format shopping landscape. TJX, Canadian Tire banners, pet stores, banks, dollar stores, liquor, QSR, full and ethnic grocers were all very active, picking up vacant space in our high-traffic Walmart anchored centers. Given our proximity to residential being in the center of communities and their strong financial footing, a few new entrants were engaging us with their space needs, including discounters, experiential, entertainment, gaming, logistics, and a few light industrial users as well. Finding their preferred locations on our website and calling with competitive rents and covenants to match.

It's interesting that for a lot of this latter group, they have figured out what our national retailers always knew. Location matters. High traffic matters. It matters who you collocate with if you want your name and brand remembered. It matters that their customers enjoy the experience, access, and convenience of their weekly trip. We've heard it from so many retailers. Our real estate strategy is simple: find a Walmart anchored center and get into it. The cross-shopping, high traffic, convenience, frequency of visits, and the value to our customers is clear in their words. For SmartCentres, delivering on this vision and strategy have led us to the results we have seen before and continue to see this quarter, which speaks to themselves.

With a sector-leading 98% occupancy, over 99% collections, 4.3% same-property NOI growth, even planning new build retail, and not just in urban centers, but in places like Carleton, Cambridge, Alliston, Chilliwack. Renewal spreads on over 3 million sq ft of leasing at 4.3% ex anchors. While the pandemic gave retailers good reason to pause and rethink their strategy, their path is now clearer than ever. They stay close to their customers, offer great value, make it convenient in proximity and access, and collocate with the best in the country so that customers have one place to do all of their shopping for their daily needs. Even with this strong recovery, there is no doubt that the market will see a small handful of retailers struggling to adapt, mostly in the enclosed mall space, which is not our space.

Bed Bath & Beyond is one such example, but for us, that was only 2 locations in our 35 million sq ft portfolio, and both locations have already been taken without any rental interruption. The strength at the top keeps getting stronger. Walmart, Canadian Tire, Winners/ HomeSense, Grocers, Dollarama are reinvesting heavily in their store network and simultaneously growing their footprint. As a reminder, virtually all of the SmartCentres locations across the country includes a full grocery, accessible at grade parking, and a tenant mix that satisfies the weekly living needs of its community. With that said, here are a few other operational highlights. In addition to the larger dominant retailers, a number of smaller size tenants are wanting space across the country for personal care, beauty supplies, spas, hair salons, daycares.

When combined with entertainment such as indoor golf, gaming, and racket sport facilities, we're developing well-rounded centers, most of which, as you know, are in the planning, pre-construction or construction phases of becoming city centers, utilizing our excess lands for residential and other mixed uses, as Mitch mentioned earlier. Development of our Millway Apartments is on track, and the first phase of units in the north tower being brought to market, and 50% of those leased. That being said, there's lots more to go and leaving just over 350 units on stream to come over the balance of the year in the east podium and west tower.

Our first pre-lease industrial new build tenant took occupancy just after the quarter in our Pickering project, and given the modern design, location, and current discussions, we're expecting the balance of the space to be leased shortly. Our premium outlets in Toronto and Montreal continue to exceed our expectations and dominate their markets. Tenant sales in Toronto are well over $1,000 per square foot and have exceeded all prior years. 2023 EBITDA is trending to exceed the 2022 levels by over 10%. With traffic continuing to grow, plan your trips accordingly to take advantage of the great luxury brands such as Prada, Kate Spade, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Zegna, Versace, and Ferragamo, to name a few, and all at affordable outlet prices.

All in all, even with the few economic challenges facing us all, 2023 is shaping up to be a step up over the prior year in nearly every metric, delivering NOI growth, leading occupancy levels, stronger tenant covenants, all while executing on our mixed-use development strategy for the long term. Thanks. Now I'll turn it over to Peter.

Peter Slan
CFO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Thank you, Rudy. The financial results for the first quarter reflects continued solid performance in our core retail business, with a strong contribution from our mixed-use development portfolio through the initial closings at the Transit City 4 condominium project. For the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, FFO per fully diluted unit was CAD 0.54, an increase of 6% from the comparable quarter last year. These results include CAD 3.8 million, or CAD 0.02 per unit of profits from the closing of 194 condominium suites at Transit City 4. Higher rental income was partially offset by higher interest expense. While G&A expenses were also higher this quarter, we note that a majority of the increase was due to a one-time write-off of some capitalized costs related to a discontinued development project.

We expect G&A costs to revert to their historic trend line in future quarters. Net rental income for the quarter increased by CAD 4.1 million or 3.4% from the same quarter last year. Including our equity accounted investments, however, net rental income increased by CAD 5.5 million or 4.4%, largely due to continued strong performance at our Montreal and Toronto premium outlet centers. Same property NOI, including equity accounted investments, increased by CAD 5.3 million or 4.3% compared to the same period in 2022. Leasing activity remained strong during the quarter, which is expected to drive continued modest growth in NOI over the balance of the year.

Our occupancy level, including committed leases, was 98% at the end of Q1, unchanged from the prior quarter, but up 80 basis points from a year earlier. In terms of distributions, we have maintained our annual cash distribution level of CAD 1.85 per unit throughout the COVID-19 period, and we are proud to be one of the very few Canadian REITs that has never cut its distributions. The payout ratio to AFFO for the 3 months ended March 31, 2023, was 93%, an improvement from 96.1% for the same period a year earlier. Total assets, including our proportionate share of equity accounted investments, were CAD 12.1 billion at the end of Q1, unchanged from the prior quarter.

During the quarter, IFRS fair value adjustments in our investment property portfolio, including equity accounted investments, resulted in modest net gains of approximately $35.4 million, principally reflecting additional leasing activity. We did not make any portfolio-wide changes in our capitalization rate assumptions this quarter, although we did use modestly higher cap rates on a small number of select properties. During the quarter, we closed on the sale of the first 194 condominium units in our Transit City 4 development for growth proceeds at the REIT's 25% share of $24.8 million and net profit of $4.1 million. The remaining 832 units at Transit City 4 and Transit City 5 are expected to close over the balance of the year, as Mitch mentioned earlier.

Adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA stood at 10 times in Q1, representing a modest improvement from 10.3 times at the end of 2022 as a result of both growth in EBITDA and the repayment of approximately CAD 20.8 million of debt during the quarter. Our debt to aggregate asset ratio was 43.2% at the end of the quarter, an improvement of 40 basis points from the prior quarter. We expect to continue to repay debt over the coming quarters, particularly with the profits from the forthcoming condominium closings. As we disclosed previously, during the quarter, we completed the sale of approximately 6.4 acres of land at the Vaughan Metropolitan Center for gross proceeds of CAD 95.6 million, or CAD 58.4 million at the REIT's share.

The land parcel was comprised of 4.3 acres in VMC West, where the REIT has a two-thirds ownership, and 2.1 acres in the eastern part of VMC, where the REIT's interest is 50%. While this makes the accounting a little complicated, we recorded a modest net gain of approximately CAD 3.7 million between the two parcels. This amount is not included in FFO. The proceeds from the sale were used to reduce indulgence. Our unencumbered asset pool stood at CAD 8.7 billion at the end of Q1, up from CAD 8.4 billion at year-end. Our unsecured debt of CAD 4.1 billion was unchanged from the prior quarter and represented 79% of our total debt of CAD 5.2 billion.

From a liquidity perspective, during the quarter, we extended the term on both our principal syndicated operating line as well as one of our bilateral facilities. We are very comfortable with our current liquidity position, with more than CAD 675 million of undrawn liquidity as at March 31, 2023, including our share of equity accounted investments, but excluding any accordion features. The weighted average term to maturity of our debt, including debt on equity accounted investments, is 3.9 years, with a weighted average interest rate of 3.89%, an increase of three basis points from the prior quarter. We remain comfortable with our conservatively structured debt ladder, where the most significant aggregate maturities are in 2025 and 2027.

We are actively engaged in evaluating refinancing alternatives for our $200 million Series I debenture that matures later this month. Approximately 83% of our debt is at fixed interest rates, which has been a significant benefit to us as rates have been rising in recent quarters. Finally, I want to touch briefly on our mixed-use development projects that are underway. Last quarter, we added some new disclosure in our MD&A, focusing on these development projects, those that are currently under construction. Of the 11 projects that we highlighted in Q4, 1 was completed during Q1, which Mitch touched on earlier. It's our self-storage facility at Kings Point Plaza in Brampton. There are now 10 projects that were under construction as of March 31.

The REIT's share of the total capital cost of these projects is approximately CAD 533 million, with the estimated cost to complete standing at a relatively modest CAD 217 million. We expect all of them to be completed by the third quarter of 2024. We will continue to update this disclosure each quarter to reflect the ongoing progress with these new projects. As the year progresses, we expect to see more of these projects reach completion and come off the list, while additional projects will be added as construction commences. Note that as projects come off the list, they are also reclassified from properties under development to income-producing properties, with the exception, of course, of condos and townhomes, which move out of residential inventory upon closing.

Upon completion, each of these projects is expected to drive continued FFO growth, as well as allow us to recycle capital into other opportunities in our development pipeline and facilitate prudent management of our capital and liquidity needs. With that, we would be pleased to take your questions. Operator, can we have the first question on the line, please?

Operator

Yeah, absolutely. Again, if any participants would like to ask a question, please press star one, and we will get your names. Again, star one to ask a question, and star two to actually withdraw your question. We'll just wait a few moments if there is any questions that will queue up. At the moment, we have no questions. Again, it is the star one to queue up and star two to withdraw your question. We did get some questions that did queue up, so we'll just get a few moments just to get their names. We have three questions in the queue right now.

Actually had a fourth question that queued up. Okay. Shouldn't be too long. We're just retrieving their name now. Again, while we're waiting, if anyone on the line has a question, just please press star one. Okay. Our first question is going to be from Tal Woolley from National Bank Financial. Maybe a moment here. Just gonna be a second. We're just unmuting his line. Shouldn't be too long. Sorry for the delay. Shouldn't be too long.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Hello? Hello? Hello.

Operator

Hi. Sorry about that. Tal Woolley, from National Bank Financial, your line is unmuted. Go ahead. Hello, Tal. Are you on the line?

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Can you hear me?

Operator

Yes.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Oh, okay.

Operator

You go, you go ahead.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Sorry. It's Sam Damiani with TD Cowen. Good afternoon. Didn't think I changed my name. Congratulations on the good same-property print. I was wondering what your thoughts were for the balance of 2023 on same property. Just looking at the Q1 sort of contribution. Looks like it got a lot from occupancy gains and possibly from the outlet centers. As the year progresses, how do you think that year-over-year comparison is gonna play out?

Rudy Gobin
EVP of Portfolio Management and Investments, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Hi, Sam. It's Rudy. We see a continuation of what we are starting in Q1. Last year, as you know, was rebuilding, 2021 into 2022, it's building from Q1 to Q1. We do see a trend of this continuing. We are at 98%, again, the churn was gonna make that difference. The interest is so good from that number of retailers that I mentioned, we are getting a good uptick, as you saw in the renewals as well. New leasing for vacant space and renewal uplift, we should be able to keep this momentum going.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Would you be comfortable putting out sort of a range, sort of, I wouldn't say official guidance, but sort of best guesses as to how same property will play out for the year?

Rudy Gobin
EVP of Portfolio Management and Investments, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Well, I'd say it this way. I would say from an overall perspective, I wouldn't wanna like, pick a number or range because as you know, every little tenant matters, every little one. Like, we were fortunate about the Bed Bath & Beyond, that we did not have a big exposure to that, those 60 stores. We had two. I'm gonna say generally what we are seeing in Q1, we expect to continue throughout the rest of the year.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Okay. Okay, that's helpful. Thanks, Rudy. Maybe just on the, on the development side, as you mentioned, Peter, you know, there was one project that came out 'cause it was completed, 10 left. As you look forward, what kinds of projects do you see added to active construction, and how are you looking at residential condo versus rental in the current environment?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

I think, at the moment, you know, we're going measured step by step. We really have only one new construction start that we're absolutely committed to starting, and that's ArtWalk, which is in the SmartVMC here. It's a condo that's sold out. All the released units are sold out. It has a rental building and a small boutique office component. We're gonna take the first step of construction on that. And you know, we have, I can't remember if we have 20%. I know we had our second deposits in January. They all came through. There was no rescissions or defaults. That's one. We are looking closely at some of the others, but at the moment, that's the only new, residential, start that we are committed to starting this year.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Okay. How about, I guess, on, for other asset classes, either self-storage or industrial, that arguably, you know, shorter build time, little less, less risk, if you will?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Yeah. I mean, like we do have, as Rudy Gobin has said, we have. We're cautiously optimistic about some new retail starts, net new on existing sites. You know, most of these sites, as you would, I guess, know, Sam Damiani, are zoned. In terms of getting started, it's usually pretty straightforward. We're cautiously optimistic. I mean, we could probably see a couple of retail starts. In self-storage, we have two currently under construction right now. You know, it's possible that there'll be up to two, probably won't get a 3rd started this year, but I could definitely see two more starts this year. Yeah, don't see an industrial start this year, but next year could be.

We just finished the Pickering, so there may be some further construction on the completion of the interiors of the half of the industrial building that we've built out in Pickering. You know, it's negligible. Yeah, there'll be some capital improvements and some renovations. Next year and the year after, depending on, you know, fundamentals, we have a number of things cooking, which we'll get into maybe later in the year that might result in some commencements next year. As well as that retail program that I was referring to will most certainly start to manifest in all its, you know, potential next year. Yeah, in food stores and others that we've mentioned here without getting into too many specifics. There's quite a few new retail initiatives, you know, pre-leased, strong tenants, you know, going on.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Okay, great. last one for me just quickly. I just didn't catch what you said, Mitch, in your opening remarks. Millway is 50% leased already? Is that... I just wanna make sure I heard what you said correctly.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

No. We, Sam, at the moment, all we're leasing is the podiums. Because they're the ones that are basically, you know, some of them are now occupiable. Off the top of my head, I think we have. Yeah. What's that, Peter?

Peter Slan
CFO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

I have the stats.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Yeah, Peter will give you the exact stats.

Peter Slan
CFO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Sam, there's 89 units in between the two podiums that are currently available. 42 of them have leases signed. That's 47% of those that are available. Obviously the big nut is the tower, and we don't expect occupancy there to commence until sometime in the summer.

Sam Damiani
Equity Research Analyst, TD Cowen

Okay. Okay, very good. Thanks so much.

Operator

All right. Thank you. Sorry about that. That was question from Sam Damiani, a little technical glitch there. All right, our next question here. All right, our next question, I believe, will be from Tal Woolley from National Bank Financial.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Hello?

Operator

Tal, your line should be unmuted.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Yep, hello?

Operator

Perfect. Go ahead.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Hey, Tal.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Hey. There we go. You had mentioned, some you were looking at maybe adding some new, food locations. Is this grocery or food service that you're talking about?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Grocery. I mean, food.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Um-

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Food as well, but grocery.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Does Walmart not have an exclusive covenant at most of your properties?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Yeah. some of them. I don't want a very, very specific thing we can talk about later, I mean, some do, some don't. different circumstances are, you know, when they do or they don't necessarily mean that those, you know, don't happen. some do, some don't, some sites are, you know, we have sites across from our sites, you know, sites that are across from the larger Walmart anchor sites, too. you know, it depends on which market we're talking about. suffice to say they're not. We're not referring to properties that we need to go and get, you know, a restrictive covenant, you know, amended or released.

Just keep in mind, we do have lots of, there are lots of Loblaws and Sobeys and other food stores, currently operating on Walmart sites along with Costco, by the way, which I didn't mention are also some of, you know, included in some of what I was referring to.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

I think you mentioned on the senior side you're dialing back, you know, one joint venture. I believe that's with Groupe Sélection in Quebec. Are you looking for a new partner in Ontario too on the senior side?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

I just want to correct you. I know you, why you said Quebec. It's actually in Ottawa. Yeah, Groupe Sélection out of Quebec and all the litigation, and most of their properties are in Quebec. That's true. Correct. I mean, we were always, and are still in touch with all seniors operators. You know, we had a number of Revera's on the go. Those are still, you know, the relationship with Revera is still very strong and very good. We've slowed down that program. We are in touch with others. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we have some information to share somewhere up the road about, you know, some senior's homes with, some other than Revera.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Okay. Is there a particular reason those things are going slower? It's just... I mean, for one, I could imagine that just, you know, generally speaking, the whole seniors industry kind of slowed down during COVID period. Is there anything specific sort of around the relationship you're trying to build?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

It's really construction prices. I mean, the construction, you know, the construction price of the simplest building had gone up. We'll get into, if you want to, whether they're coming down or not. Seniors, I mean, you know, is probably on the spectrum of, you know, complex construction and exposure to price increases, is probably on the, you know, on the outskirts. It really is just around waiting for prices to come down a bit.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Okay. quick. Then, just on the balance sheet, I think you're making reference to that, you know, your sort of average terms of maturity was around, you know, the 3-year range. With the shape of the curve and how you're thinking about interest rates, like what's sort of the goal as you do more re-refinancing going forward? Do you look to try and lengthen term here or keep it roughly where it is?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

I'll let Peter can answer, you know, that could be. I could ask you. I mean, I guess, you know, you can read the, what the, what the, big brains are thinking when you look at, you know, the spreads and the, and the embedded rates for the various terms. you know, I don't know. Everybody's got their own opinion. I personally think, you know, there's a lot of motivation to try to push them down a little bit. I think, you know, we're never gonna see or we're not gonna see those rates where we were before for a long time or ever for the foreseeable future. I think, you know, we're just getting our mind around the sort of the mid-range in terms of term for now.

I don't know right now if you asked me do we wanna lock in for the long term at these rates. Long term meaning 10 plus years. You know, we're not super excited about rates and locking into them for 10 years. You know, everyone's got their opinion, and we're really only dealing at the moment, you know, with the one maturity. Sam, I think you said the weighted average remaining term was about three years. It's actually closer to 4, 3.9. I just wanna make sure you understand that it's a little longer than that.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Okay. Nope, that's it for me. Thanks very much.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Thanks, Tal.

Tal Woolley
Director and Research Analyst, National Bank Financial, Inc.

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Sorry for the confusion there. We had just a little technical glitch. All right. Our next question is going to be from Gaurav Mathur from iA Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Gaurav.

Gaurav Mathur
Director of Equity Research, iA Capital Markets

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. I'm just sticking to the balance sheet for the moment. With the upcoming CAD 200 million maturity, Peter, would it be possible for you to discuss where pricing currently stands and whether it will be possible to, you know, replace a debenture with another one?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

As I mentioned, Gaurav, we're looking at multiple options for refinancing, including debentures, including looking at drawing our lines and so forth. As for current pricing, I mean, you work for an investment dealer, your insight on this is probably at least as good as ours. You heard Mitch's views on the various tenors.

Gaurav Mathur
Director of Equity Research, iA Capital Markets

Yep. Okay. Okay. Can't compliment me for trying. Just lastly, on the AFFO payout ratio, is there a range that you're targeting to be within, you know, for 2023?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

For 2023, you're not gonna see all that much difference over the course of the year. We've actually just finished our budgeting exercise, we do expect it to decline over the coming years.

Gaurav Mathur
Director of Equity Research, iA Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thank you for the color. I'll turn it back to the operator.

Operator

Perfect, Mitch. That was your last question? Okay. Thank you, Gaurav. All right, our next question will be from Lorne Kalmar from Desjardins Capital Markets. Please go ahead, Lorne.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research - Real Estate, Desjardins Capital Markets

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. Couple quick ones from me. You mentioned capital recycling. I was wondering if you could maybe give sort of a quantum into how much you kind of expect to do over the balance of the year.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Well, we don't know. I mean, what we'd like and what we do. I mean, you know, we're happy with our portfolio. We'd like to improve our debt metrics, we're highly motivated. It's really just gonna be a question of market conditions. We've got very desirable assets, both, you know, IPP and surplus lands and zoned surplus lands. You know, if we had our druthers, we'd probably be talking in terms of, you know, CAD 200 million-CAD 400 million. You know, that's just provided that, you know, they're fair pricing, you know.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research - Real Estate, Desjardins Capital Markets

Yeah, that seems fair enough. I mean, maybe just sticking with this. Are, you know, have buyers started to come back? Obviously, there's a bit of a lull, but things seem to be hopefully stabilizing. I was wondering what you're seeing in terms of appetite.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

I mean, obviously, there's not a huge, there's not a lot of data points over the last six , maybe even, you know, 12 months, but we do feel it. We get inquiries. We've been getting inquiries over the last month and a bit. On the land side, zoned land in good markets, you know, the, you know, both the players in those markets, you know, the private developers and some, you know, institutional types, are, you know, are interested in, you know, specific molecular properties. That side of it, there, yeah, we feel interest. Yeah.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research - Real Estate, Desjardins Capital Markets

Okay, great. Just quick one maybe for Peter. Would it be fair to kind of extrapolate the FFO contribution from the Transit City sales in 1 Q through the balance of the year? Is that kind of a fair way to look at it?

Peter Slan
CFO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Yeah. It's not gonna be equally spread out over the course of the balance of the year. It's gonna be front end loaded to Q2 and Q3.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research - Real Estate, Desjardins Capital Markets

Okay.

Peter Slan
CFO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

A small number at the end of the year.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research - Real Estate, Desjardins Capital Markets

Perfect. Perfect. Just lastly on the Pickering Industrial Development, obviously industrial is hot, hot. When, what are expectations for getting the rest of that leased up?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

We have a lot of interest. It's, it's, you know, it's all what you're hearing. At least it's been true for us in Pickering, on the vacancy. We've had, we have a number of things under negotiation right now, but, you know, until it's done, you know, it's not done. It's hard to say. We really hope in the next, you know, month or so we'll have an executed agreement. In terms of rent commencement, we still have to pour the floor, and a few other things that we did so as to accommodate any possible tenant. Really rent commencement maybe by the end of the year.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research - Real Estate, Desjardins Capital Markets

What would sort of be the range of net rents you're looking at?

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

We are, depending on what kind of work you want us to do, we're sort of quoting CAD 15-CAD 16 net, with some reasonable, you know, meaning, you know, kind of, you know, inflationary type increases, on a ideally a 10-year term.

Lorne Kalmar
VP of Equity Research - Real Estate, Desjardins Capital Markets

Okay, great. Thank you. Thank you so much.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Sure.

Operator

All righty. Perfect. Thank you. All right. We'll just, again, if there's any participants who'd like to ask a question, it is star one. If you'd like to withdraw your question, it is star two. As of now, there is no questions in the queue.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Okay.

Operator

Just wait maybe another few seconds here if there's any last questions back you up. All right. Yeah, it seems that there is no questions in the queue at this time.

Mitchell Goldhar
Executive Chairman and CEO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Okay. Well, thank you for participating in our Q1 analyst call. Please reach out to any of us for further questions. Have a good day.

Peter Slan
CFO, SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

Bye all.

Operator

Okay, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the SmartCentres REIT Q1 2023 conference call. Thank you for your participation and have a nice day.

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