Okay, I think we'll keep rolling along. Up next, we have TELUS. We have Doug French, who's the CFO. I think everybody in the room is familiar with Doug. Doug, maybe we'd start off. I thought we'd start off with just, you know, some context around TELUS' strategy, how it's continuing to evolve, and, you know, what you're seeing out there in the marketplace from a broad strategic center focus, and then we'll drill down into a few things.
Excellent. Welcome. Our strategy hasn't really changed. So when you look through how we're addressing the current market, how we're looking forward to 2025, and positioning ourselves for the, you know, the future, it's continuing to lead with customer service. It's continuing to lead with churn reductions and churn management. As you've seen, we've been an industry leader for a very, very long time. It's going to continue to lead with the best networks, and we've shown that with our fiber build and accelerated fiber build as compared to anyone else around the world in substance, and it's paying benefits, and you're seeing some of that in market acquisitions and other items in the U.S.
Valuing fiber significantly more than what I think was anticipated in the past, and something that we had seen for a very, very long time. We're looking at product intensity, and I think the what's next on product intensity is very important for us. So our product diversity, product bundling, and bringing solutions to the table that are relevant and are value accretive to our customers across the board is extremely important, and that focus, I would say, is very high on our agenda right now. When you're starting to complete, you know, the best network in the world in fiber, the most effective and cheapest to run network in the world, yet the highest quality, you then go: What next, and how do I monetize it?
So immediately moving to: How do we monetize? What are those other products, and how do we deliver and continue to deliver the best service to our customers? And then you look at the our focus on profitable loading and cost reduction and cost efficiencies. I think we've led on digitization, as you saw from starting back in COVID, even until now. Having you know, an effective and efficient product or a network such as fiber is also helping us bring down our cost structure and cost to serve. And you know, then how we do it, we consistently take a lot of pride in being not your typical telecom, focusing on communities, focusing on giving back and balancing that, you know, we're gonna get great financial and operational outcomes while making good.
I think that combination isn't changing. That is what is gonna make us or navigate us through any competitive environment and navigate us into 2025.
Okay, great, great segue into that competitive environment. You know, we've seen from your results that, you know, your loading is holding up, but service revenue growth is slowed. How are you thinking... Let's start with Wireless. How are you thinking about back to school, and as we go into the fall and the dynamics there, what, you know, what's your message to investors about how those KPIs are gonna fall?
Yeah. So I think we're still seeing good, to your point, good loading, still seeing immigration, still seeing you know, a dynamic market on that front, and it hasn't slowed a lot. We're not seeing, you know, significant impacts of any kind of slowdown in the economy that may be in the backdrop as well, and I think our services fare very well, that even if there is a slight slowdown, our services are usually one of the last that you would actually see any reductions in, so that front, from a loading perspective, going well. I think from the competitive nature, we continue to be very competitive in Canada. I think you've seen that in pricing, you've seen that in some of the offerings.
The change dynamic that's happening back to school has been more focused back on handsets again, a little less on more the flatlining of rate plans. Still bigger buckets, so bigger buckets are still being offered, but we're not matching them all. And so when we go back to look at, you know, offers that any person does the math on, you're probably three to four-year breakeven, we're not gonna match it. And if that includes, you know, subsidies that are a little bit larger, then that's okay. I'll win the customer back after two years and show our customer service, show our bundling, et cetera, if it's very price sensitive to the very short term.
But we're gonna continue to focus on value accretion, so we're trying to put the premium back in premium and show our customers that there are values in the product sets that we bundle. Continue to leverage our Public Mobile, which has a differentiated and fairly high margin-type product because of its 100% digital. So keep delivering on that end. But the recovery of ARPU is gonna be slow and steady. And I think we're positioned well with our bundle, we're positioned well with our customer service, and churn really matters. And so you know, it's not gonna be a ski slope back up to positive EBITDA growth by any means, but stabilization to recovery will be slow and steady as we look forward in our estimate.
The industry has managed the equipment subsidy issue, which used to be a real drag on cash flow. Recently, it's really not been an issue. Are you concerned that the industry is gonna trend into more of handset subsidies being more intense?
... I don't think so. I think it is a one-off, and it's a one particular segment or area of the market. But we're not the only ones who haven't matched it, and so I think from an industry perspective, we're looking at it as you know, economics absolutely matter, and they matter for the long run, and I think that focus on loading. It's been over-torqued for too long. I think the focus on you know, network revenue growth leading to EBITDA flow-through is the key, and I think you've seen some leadership on our end on that front, and as I said, we're never perfect, but we've tried to lead majority of the way.
And I think our results show it that when you have a low-cost structure, you have a bundled product, and you're able to bring multiple products and leverage those multiple products to focus on the economics of the home, that's really what we're focusing on. And we will definitely manage through any short-term subsidy play that's happening on back-to-school. As you point out, we've been in that market for over 20 years of high subsidy. But I think, you know, this, I'd say, is moderate, not necessarily high, but it's still something that we're not gonna follow unless it's economic and good for our organization.
Okay. And what's the dynamic, same kind of question on the wireline side. Once again, when we looked at the way you report all the fixed buckets, you know, you've you seem to be attracting customers, but there seems to be a moderation in revenue growth there. What's the dynamic that's... What are the puts and takes there?
Yeah, we had internet ARPU growth for quite a while.
Yeah.
And that was on moving from copper to fiber. And you'd generally get, you know, 10%-15% uplift on going to fiber from copper. So we've seen that be more flat in the competitive environment. So internet ARPU has been more flat. We've been loading customers still, to your point, very well on a very superior product that has allowed us to maintain that. We've seen a little bit of lumpiness in our fixed on the business side between some of our corporate and government contracts that, you know, have skewed that result a little bit. But consumer's been very steady. It's been positive, it's been steady, and moving to flat ARPU on internet is still, I think, a very good outcome in this environment.
And we're still loading significantly on fiber and migrating to fiber, and I'm sure we're gonna talk more about that in the future, but that, that's the most probably accretive opportunity we still have is more fiber penetration, more bundling, and the costs that come with that and the opportunity that comes with that. On TV, we are seeing a reduction in ARPU. The good thing is, not owning content, our costs generally come down with that concurrently, so you get a, you know, a similar margin, just on a smaller, smaller base, and that's coming down for a couple of reasons. One, Stream+ has been very, very effective, so we're doing very well at getting a bundle on Stream+, but it is a lower ARPU product, meaning it's a smaller bundle.
But our customers are really liking it, and it's really taking traction and an offering that we are one of the first in the world to be able to offer to our customers, that bundle and those products in that set. So that has been declining, and putting a little bit of pressure on that front, but from a margin perspective, holding well. From security and home phone, you've seen our home phone decline continue, and it's been, though, moderated to the extent we've been able to still bundle on that front. So considering our bases are, you know, not that far off or call it proportionate to our peers, we're losing materially less and maintaining very high-margin products on our phone side.
Then, on security, a bit of a swing between a little bit more less monitored and more home in or self-install, which would have a slightly lower margin and a slightly lower revenue as well. But again, economically, when the customer is buying their own equipment and we don't have to install it in their house, from a margin perspective and cash flow, it's still positive. So I still see growth, good growth. I see consistency that you've seen in, you know, the last few quarters of, yes, it's gonna be a little bit lower than the past when you don't have the ARPU accretion. But we are seeing growth, and we're stable on the ARPU front.
Right. Well, let's dive down into fiber. You just mentioned that. You know, what... What should investors think, expect in terms of financial metrics as you, you know, continue to drive fiber, albeit not at an accelerated, pace? And, you know, you've made some comments recently on how that may impact a real estate strategy and decommissioning copper. Maybe just flesh that out a bit for people.
Yeah. So, you know, the key metrics on fiber are, our churn is down 25%-30% over copper. So again, getting our customers on fiber are a key initiative for us. Our ARPU is generally 15% higher. Multi-products are usually over three, so customers are taking more than one product, which is, again, reflective in the churn rate. Our cost to serve is down 25%-35%, and that includes both truck rolls for repairs, that includes warm haul, warm home installs, and our cost to deliver is coming down.
And so we're able to now bring in, you know, new services at lower rates as we start making our own TV platform, as we start bringing in cheaper set-top boxes or internet pucks and TV being a SaaS service instead of an old set-top box service. All of those items which had success-based capital associated with it are all coming down as part of the product development and fiber penetration. And as you get to that, and we're at the tip of what other doors does it open? It opens absolutely monetization opportunities. And so first and foremost, we're preparing, and we've been working on a real estate portfolio.
We have two buildings that'll be ready in the next 12 months, offering over 300 or approximately 300 rental facilities to Canadians. We have another 16 in the next 24 to 36 months, which will be over 2,500 rental units. With that, we will get an economic gain out of the beginning from putting our land into a partnership with a co-developer. The co-developer will put their cash into it, and then we develop the building together. It'll be either through construction financing or whatever the proceeds of the previous sale, whatever that looks like, but it very much becomes self-funding.
And so you'll see in our P&L, it's a recurring gain that you're gonna see for years to come, as we're probably, you know, have up to 200 opportunities to do this with. And if it doesn't work out, i.e., the economics aren't there, then we will just sell the land, when we actually move to decommissioning the copper completely and shutting down the CO or minimizing the size of the CO. We figure there'll be a gross, you know, CAD 2 billion-CAD 3 billion of opportunity there, but then you'd have to take away the development costs, et cetera. So net numbers, still working on, but it could even be a REIT opportunity, should the market be, you know-
Reliable at the time.
Receptive at the time.
Yeah.
Copper decommissioning, the other side, is about CAD 1 billion of copper. We think we're calling it copper mining, of pulling copper out of our network, and that's the addressable. The amount that we actually have is larger than that, but it could be either not easy to get to or could be wrapped with fiber. And so those ones we've left off the table for now and only highlighted the ones that we think we will be able to get to, in the next little bit. And that's probably on a 50% margin. So if it's a billion dollars, it'd be 500 million, probably in the, you know, five-year horizon, but it'll be smooth and steady and growing over that timeframe. So we had some this year, and we're at its infancy at the moment.
So, I would say it's this year would be low double digits or high single digits in the zone of revenue, and the net number for that, but growing every year subsequent to the end result that I highlighted. And when you get that, then on the most reliable internet delivery, you have the most cost-effective internet delivery while I'm monetizing it along the way. That's also how we're gonna either fund new initiatives and/or de-lever along the way. So it's going to be that initiative is gonna contribute to that, which I'm sure will be another question on leverage in the near future.
Yeah, sure. So you're gonna mine copper for five years.
Or longer even.
Or longer, but-
Yeah.
What would the timing be on the real estate portfolio monetization?
You need at least CAD 500 million of assets, and so between TELUS Ocean, which is in Victoria, and that first wave of the 2022 that I referred to, I think we would surpass that easily, so I would say we would have the opportunity to start thinking about it probably in 24 months, and then decide, is it, is it the right time or not, economically at that point, and what's next, so I would say that would more be the window, but we would have at least the asset base to do that in about 24 months.
Okay. Going back to fixed and well, I guess the core business, I mean, bundling is clearly like it, it's table stakes now. And we've recently had a regulatory decision that may accelerate that with TPIA. Can you think... speak to us about how TELUS is approaching the TPIA framework, and maybe a comment on how you think the rate, the final rates narrative will play out?
Yeah, I think the good side to the ruling was the five-year window on once you've built, you have five years, which is ROI-focused. We've always been a proponent that it should be facilities-based costing. Anyone who invests in an asset of that nature should have the right to get a return, and as long as the pricing continues down that path, which we assume it will, to promote investment, then I would say we would go about it as business as usual. That leveraging it in Eastern Canada to bundle with, where appropriate, we would look at that.
And in Western Canada, if there was others leveraging our fiber network, then to the extent it's we make a profit on that, then again, that would be, you know, contributing to the utilization of our fiber, 'cause if there's a chance we wouldn't have gotten that customer in the first place.
Mm-hmm.
I actually am not as long as infrastructure-based costing stays, and that we get a return on our asset, which the framework is leaning to that way as we speak. I think it's a good direction to be seen on what that actually outcome is. We would really strongly recommend promote investment 'cause we're not done, you know. Bell's not done their fiber, and there's still a lot more to do investment in Canada that I wouldn't want to stifle.
Right. But I mean, the way the tariffs, the interim tariffs are set, obviously, we don't know where the final ones will come in, but, you know, there's not a lot of margin in that. So as you think about the bundle, like, how are you gonna make money when you're not gonna have margin? The biggest chunks of that?
It goes back to why I'm really focused, and we're focused on what's next. I want a three or four or five-product home. I want to be able to leverage the assets that we're building. And when I'm building, you know, a Stream+ TV platform that's completely a SaaS service on low-cost implement, my margin increases. When I'm looking at my Home 2.0 and bringing aging at home and bringing energy savings to customers, where they're actually buying our product and saving money in their house, I'm delivering a different value prop. And I absolutely would be fine with, you know, not making a significant amount of margin on a resale-type environment, 'cause the right thing to do is cost plus. It's infrastructure-based costing, but I can definitely do well on my bundle.
And as long as I'm leading in product development and customer service, that's where you can win. And the whole industry, I think, will win as that gains more momentum. You're monetizing an asset, and the asset of fiber is 50-60 years.
Mm-hmm.
Verizon didn't pay what they paid for Frontier, undervaluing that long-term value of fiber. And I think that is what we're really trying to reinforce and show, that product, product, product is now the way to go once you've gotten through a majority of your build. And whether it's resale or not, we believe we can make money in the bundle and the profit intensity we're putting forward.
Because you're through the majority of your build, certainly the accelerated part of it, you've talked about line of sight to a 10% capital intensity number. I mean, that would be industry-leading. Can you talk about, you know, timing and your underlying assumptions? And how can you get there? 'Cause that's a-
Yeah
... a very low number.
We, when we look at moving from and reducing our copper footprint, we still spend copper dollars on copper for repairs, for enhancements, for you know environmental events, et cetera. And so that starts to go away. Fiber is way more resilient, and the amount of copper ongoing maintenance capital we'll have to do is significantly less. You're starting to see that.
Mm.
The build on fiber right now is relatively flat in our spend profile, so it's not increasing. We're looking at our, even our Wireless business, where when we built out our Wireless network and are interlocked with our fiber, because fiber and Wireless go together. When you're actually building a fiber network, to the extent you're putting in your Wireless small cells and building out the capabilities within those cities, you're actually opening up another door for fixed Wireless, another door for your internet products, but I'm pre-positioning it for millimeter wave. So I think we are the industry leader in Canada in small cells, and so the ability to roll out millimeter wave at a very cheap cost will also mean less stress on our balance sheet to the extent, you know, that the business case holds water for the millimeter wave deployment.
We're looking at, as I highlighted, all the cost reductions in success-based capital. So our capital spend has been as high as 1/3 going to success-based capital, and that would be set-top boxes, modems, infrastructure within your house on security. That's all coming down with the development I talked about, owning our own TV platform versus having to buy it from someone else. Set-top boxes, which are materially, you know, 1/3 to 25% the cost of what it was before, and it's not even really a set-top box. It's more the internet puck that gets you your connectivity into the TV platform, and then our security platform costs are coming down with Home 2.0, where it's becoming very much, you know, plug and play.
We can add new products to that without having to do a significant uplift in either equipment in your home. You can do more of a software flash. And as we go through that, that's allowing us then to grow our revenue base, bring down our capital cost structure, and still invest in the areas we need to invest in on what's next, in product intensity and digitization, 'cause we're still not done there, either. Health and Ag, all of those investments can still be done in the capital envelope we have or less.
Mm-hmm.
And so when I look at that framework, that is how we're gonna be able to maintain it, start to bring it down, and the efficiencies that we're bringing with our fiber network.
Any questions from the floor? Anybody? Okay, well, maybe you know, following up on that, what are the capital priorities for TELUS over the next few years? I mean, given in an envelope that's declining, but where do you expect to deploy capital?
I think it's gonna be weird, similar to what we've done in the past. I don't think our strategy has changed, and I think that's good for the investment community here. We're gonna continue to invest in the business where the future is going. So invest in the what's next-
Yep
... invest in fiber to, copper-to-fiber migrations, invest in the deployment of the amazing spectrum that we got. And we did get one hundred megs of contiguous spectrum in the 3.8, and I think we're the only ones that got that big of a block that's contiguous. So the efficiency that comes with that is also a premium for over 95% of the spectrum we bought, bringing down our cost structure and capital, so we can invest again where we need to invest. So I would say invest in the business, which will be digitization, efficiency, and effectiveness, products and new products, including the Home 2.0 that we talked about, Health and Ag, and then the continuation of our leading networks to make sure that we don't fall behind and be complacent.
Mm.
Because there will always be more opportunity to enhance and build on your networks. Second is gonna be obviously a strong balance sheet. We know we need to de-lever, and the de-levering opportunities in front of us, I think are second to none. So one, we have a growth trajectory and product diversity that our peers don't have. Being able to grow, and you saw Health EBITDA growth in the 50% zone last quarter. Starting to contribute free cash flow to help de-lever were areas that, you know, we were differentiated on.
Mm-hmm.
And then you hear our copper opportunity. You hear our real estate opportunity, which we're far up the chain on compared to others around the world. And then potential monetization of Health and Ag, and whether it even be a partner or whether it be an IPO, whatever that may look like, will also bring in cash flow that will help de-lever over and above what we think our growth rate will be leading in the industry. So I would say that's gonna make our continue to make our balance sheet quite strong. And then the confidence in our free cash flow to have shareholder returns, and you've seen our dividend policy that will be ending next year. We will plan to renew at some capacity, and we'll decide what that is at the AGM for next year.
But the balance of all three, and I think, that early investment in fiber put us in an amazing position to be where we are today. And yes, we know we have a lot of work to do still, and I'm not downplaying that at all from de-levering.
Yeah.
But, I feel we're well-positioned with our assets, our customer mix, and our focus and strategy, which has been very, very consistent.
The DRIP program, which you've often said you expected to be in place until the spectrum auctions are done, is that the same messaging on that?
It is the same messaging.
Yeah.
So I know millimeter wave, we all expect will be, you know, a little closer to the 3.8 in policy. But that being said, until it's done-
Yeah
... we'll wait for that, and we still need to earn the right to do that by de-levering along the way.
Got it. Well, one last one. Any change in your thought on tower assets, which, you know, might be a monetization opportunity?
Yeah, I think we're gonna look at every opportunity, and I would say never say never. I think five years ago, 10 years ago, we would say never.
Yeah.
But the environment we're in, the access to towers anyway, you definitely are looking at it. I would say there's nothing imminent, but-
Okay
... I would never say never.
Got it. Let's switch just for a moment to TELUS Digital. You know, you've articulated that your intention is for it to stand on its own and, you know, operate their way back to a growth profile. But you did buy a bit of stock recently. What's the thinking on TELUS Digital these days?
So you are correct. We do not have an intention to take it private. We do think the asset it has, especially in digital AI, in application development, is a very, very strong asset. We do think that they're undervalued at the moment, i.e., why we're buying small amounts in the market. I think the TELUS, we've highlighted before, the TELUS contract with TELUS Digital alone is equal to or greater than its current market cap. So the fact that, you know, there is a discount in the market, we believe it's in, you know, economic best interest to buy a little bit of that, but we are not looking to take it private. We are continuing to build a relationship with TELUS Digital, and, you know, to...
All of our transactions with them are fair market value. So they have to earn every single dollar they earn from us or get from us, and including, you know, the digital and AI component. So, we're seeing great opportunities out of them to bring back to us in the development of Ag and the development of Health and the Digital Insight side of being able to now go, "What's next in the value chain of Health and Ag?" And so they're providing a great opportunity for us to do that in-house. Even in our cost containment that we referred to of leading in cost, what better to have the organization that's bringing down your cost structure as your subsidiary?
And so I'm not paying the premium margins that leave my building at the end of the day on a consolidated basis that others might to bring down their cost structure if they're outsourcing. So through the digitization and the leverage of a high-quality asset to the benefits it's brought TELUS over the previous years and the fact that it is our culture that I think it's again gonna continue to grow back and recover. They do have you know work to do in front of them. It's not going to be a big bang. It's not gonna be a ski slope. I think you're gonna see them start to grow and build out of it as they disclosed in the last quarter.
I have nothing more to add beyond what they had already disclosed from a good news, bad news scenario. But I would say they are executing to the plan, and the new leadership is very focused. And Jason is one of the best customer service people we had at TELUS. And Tobias has spoke for his own on the business that he has built, and he's gonna continue to build that AI digital business within TELUS Digital.
Great. And maybe one just. I think we've got about a minute left. Maybe just an update on Health and how revenue growth is progressing in the back half of the year.
Yeah. So we saw revenue growth being mid-single digits last quarter. I think you're gonna continue to see that be the zone as we, you know, maybe start to tick up a little bit in the fourth quarter in the exit rate. Things are going well there, both from a cost perspective and an integration perspective. The revenue and bundling that we thought, you know, we would be able to do a little bit sooner is now picking up pace. We're winning some very good contracts that are leveraging multiple services between the old TELUS and LifeWorks. And so it is gaining momentum. But those contracts generally take six to nine to 12 months to negotiate because they're generally with larger organizations.
So again, I think you'll see it be in the zone it is now, potentially ticking up for the exit rate. But, very positive trajectory from where we were, you know, a few months ago, and getting to where we thought it would be, just a little bit later than anticipated.
Okay. I think we're plumb out of time. I'll wrap it up there.
Thank you.
Thanks, Doug.
That was great. Thanks so much.
Okay, we'll keep rolling with Rogers.