Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TSX:TFPM)
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BMO 34th Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference

Feb 25, 2025

Shaun Usmar
Founder and CEO, Triple Flag Precious Metals

The investment case for Triple Flag is really centered on cash flow. In 2024, Triple Flag had record production, it had record gold prices, and record cash flow, all while increasing our dividend and buying back shares. This results in growing cash flow per share, and cash flow per share, I think, is the single most important metric for a streaming and royalty company. The portfolio is underpinned by high-quality assets. They generate robust cash flows. Better yet, this portfolio has embedded growth that is going to see production grow organically over the next five years, and this production is bought and paid for already. We have a debt-free balance sheet, and we have access to over $700 million of available debt capacity. That'll allow us to fund further growth through deploying our cash creatively for the benefit of shareholders.

I also want to note that we are aligned with shareholders. Our management team and board actually holds over $75 million of Triple Flag shares, so we are shareholders first and foremost and management team secondarily. Here's what we're going to do. We're going to generate robust cash flows for decades to come. We're going to use those cash flows to grow the dividend every year, and we're going to reinvest those cash flows in further investments to drive increased shareholder value over time. I'm going to start with gold. Triple Flag offers investors direct gold exposure. I'm very excited about gold's recent performance and its prospects going forward. My view is that gold is a currency. The gold price, we refer to the gold price, but it's really an exchange rate, and gold today is over $2,900 an ounce.

If you go back five years, gold was around $2,000 an ounce. If you go back 10 years, lower than that, still around $1,600 an ounce, and basically, the longer your time perspective, the better gold looks. I think this is going to increase and continue in the future. I'm highly confident that five, 10 years from now, the gold price is going to be higher than today. If gold is an exchange rate, we always price it in U.S. dollars, and people consider the U.S. dollars to be a very strong currency, but gold is structurally superior to the U.S. dollar, and the reason's really simple. The governments and central banks, they can print money, but they can't actually print gold, so while the gold price has been increasing, we've also been increasing our production. I'm really proud of this track record.

We started Triple Flag in 2016. We didn't have a single asset in the portfolio. Every asset in the portfolio was acquired by this management team. Last year, we achieved 113,000 gold-equivalent ounces of production. That's actually the fourth largest in the space. And better yet, this portfolio is going to be generating returns and increased production for years to come. It's underpinned by long-life mines such as Northparkes, Beta Hunt, Cerro Lindo, Young-Davidson, Fosterville, to name a few. We also have great growth potential in the portfolio. We have exposure to projects like Hope Bay, Koné, Eskay Creek, and others. And there's another point I want to draw to your attention. When we were building the portfolio over the first five years, we were needing to put in additional capital from outside the portfolio. But right now, we're generating on a run-rate basis.

We're generating over $250 million of cash flow a year. So as we drive future growth, we don't need to put in fresh capital. We're going to drive that growth with organic cash flow generated by the portfolio, and that's really going to benefit shareholders. This is probably my favorite slide in the deck. Gold price and production are great, but what really matters is cash flow. And what you see is Triple Flag has been very effective at translating the gold price and production growth into cash flow. You can see that chart grows. It actually goes higher than the production growth, and that, of course, is the gold price impact. The model is actually working exactly the way the model is supposed to work. It really dries off the margins.

If you look on the right-hand side of the slide, you see over 90% margins every year since 2019. Last year, margins of 92%. And that just makes for a very robust business model that shareholders can really count on the increased gold price translating into increased cash flows for the benefit of shareholders. Importantly, the gold price increases are not lost to cost increases. And this slide illustrates the effect on cash flow per share. Per share metrics, I think, are the most important metrics. That's not a controversial statement. I think dilution has caused a lot of economic damage in the mining sector. We guard our equity very, very jealously, and you're seeing that translate into per share growth. We are active on the NCIB. We're always trying to reduce the denominator where the market gives us a good opportunity to do so.

I now want to turn to the portfolio that's generating these cash flows. As you can see, it's 236 assets. The diversification is fantastic. Our single highest country concentration is Australia, and other than that, we actually are largely centered in the Americas. Very good mining jurisdictions. And here's another look at the diversification in the portfolio. You'll see the one asset that has a larger weight is Northparkes at 26%. The important thing about Northparkes is it's a tier-one mine. It's operated by Evolution Mining. It's in Australia. If you're going to have a 25-26% asset, Northparkes is the sort of asset you want. Other than that, very well diversified, nothing over 10% of NAV. The commodity mix is very focused on the precious metals, primarily gold and silver. You'll see that the silver weight there is 15%.

On a run-rate basis, a current cash flow, silver is actually a much higher percentage. That was a NAV view. Last year, silver accounted for 36% of our revenue. I'm actually quite excited about the silver exposure in our portfolio. It distinguishes us from some of the other players, and I think it's actually something that could be a real source of upside in the years to come. And then geography, we already touched on the geographical concentration. I want to talk about Northparkes. That really is the cornerstone asset in our portfolio. It's a wonderful asset operated by Evolution Mining. They acquired it in late 2023. It's actually been in operation for over 30 years. It's a great mine to go tour. It's very clean, very industrial. It shows really, really well.

It's been in operation for a long time, and it has a really good record of reserve replacement, so you see the gold in reserves get replaced over the years and replenished, and it's been in operation for over 30 years. We have decades to come, and people at site actually speak about this as being a century mine, so it's quite impressive. It's a copper mine. It's the best sort of asset for a streaming royalty company. We have a gold and silver stream, byproduct stream off a primary copper mine. The gold grades will vary depending on the ore source that they're drawing on, and you can see we really are benefiting right now from the higher gold grades as they're hitting some zones with higher gold grades, and that's flowing through into increased deliveries in 2024, and we're going to see that continue in 2025.

The scale of our endowment is actually quite massive. We have exposure to over 1,000 square kilometers. The whole mine site sits on less than 40 square kilometers, so there's a lot of prospectivity in the region. Evolution actually owns much of the farmland in the surrounding area, so there's very good community relations. This past year, they made a new drill hole. They discovered a new target, the Major Tom target, right in the middle of the page. It's hard to read on this slide, but it's right in the middle of the mine site. Again, a place that they've been mining for over 30 years. It's quite impressive, and I'm sure they're going to find more in the future. I also want to turn to our growth pipeline. We have embedded growth in the portfolio. It's already bought and paid for.

So one is we're going to see increased production from our currently producing assets, and that's that top section on the page there. Northparkes, ATO, Beta Hunt, Impala Bafokeng, all of those assets are set to have higher production in five years than they do today. We also have a number of really good development assets. We have Hope Bay. The Tamarack project is very impressive. Recently, we acquired a royalty on the Tres Quebradas lithium project. I'm going to speak to that one a little later in the presentation. Eskay Creek and Koné had fantastic years in 2024, getting funding packages, advancing their permitting, and there's other projects as well. There's also the large number of exploration projects. I don't think these are remotely reflected in our share price right now. I think those come along for free.

Those are going to benefit future shareholders in the future, and then last, we can make acquisitions. I'm going to touch on what I really think is one of the keys of this model, which is the ability to deploy capital accretively going forward, and I'm going to show you a bit of our track record to give an illustration of what we can accomplish in the future. These are some of the returns we've realized on prior investments. Sometimes it's said that streaming is seen as not offering the higher returns that more torquier names offer. I actually feel like we have the potential for just as good a returns, if not better, on the streaming and royalty side, and you can see assets like Cerro Lindo, which we entered into in 2016. We've gotten our money back and more. It's a wonderful mine.

It's a great management team, and they've extended that mine life. When we entered into that streaming contract in 2016, we underwrote an eight or nine-year mine life. It should be ending right about now. Well, we still have eight or nine years ahead of us, and five or six years from now, it wouldn't surprise me if we have further to go as well. That actually drives really significant value. It takes time for that value to be revealed to shareholders. You can see Buriticá. We've gotten our money back and more. Fosterville and the ATO project as well. The other ones on the page are very long-life mines, so Northparkes and Impala Bafokeng. Those mines have decades of mine life ahead of them. They're still tracking extremely well relative to our investment case, ahead of our investment case, but they're going to drive significant value.

In time, I think you'll see the same sort of pattern where the cash flows received actually exceed the invested capital. It's easy to talk about the successes, but I think you really get judged on the totality of your performance. What we did here was we showed what we included every investment we made at Triple Flag from 2016 onwards. What you see is just under $2.5 billion of capital was deployed. We've actually received back $1.1 billion, a little bit over $1.1 billion. Most of that capital was deployed since 2020. Northparkes , RB Plat were 2020 assets, and the Maverix acquisition was 2023. This isn't the case of this is long-dated capital that reflects generations past. These are actually fairly recent deals. The NAV is actually over and above what we invested. That's actually quite robust investment performance.

When investors see the cash flows being produced, those are true cash flows. Those aren't just returns of capital. We've averaged $270 million a year in deployment over the eight or nine years. I'd be very disappointed if we don't manage to exceed that, and when we look at these cash flows, there's another lens I want to put. It's actually not on the slide, but if you look at the shareholder capital, shareholders have contributed $1.7 billion of capital to Triple Flag, and that's, again, right from the beginning, from 2016 onward. Our current run rate is $250 million of cash flow a year. That's a 14% cash flow yield on invested capital. The delta between the 1.7 and the 2.4 is we made some investments, we used debt, we paid off the debt with cash flows, and we also liquidated some investments.

So when you look at that, those are unlevered returns. I think they stack up with anything out there in the investing universe. So this isn't just a case of a good mining investment. This is just a good investment and stop. I want to touch on some of our more recent acquisitions. So in Q4, we announced the acquisition of a royalty on Tres Quebradas. This is an existing royalty. It's a property owned by Zijin. What's unique and a little bit out of our sweet spot is this is a lithium royalty. We're not targeting lithium. What it was is opportunistically, we thought this was a fantastic investment and opportunity. It was the right size for the portfolio. We're always going to remain a precious metals company. We're always going to be 80%-90% precious metals, and this doesn't change that.

But what it is, is it's a very large ore body. It gives us the potential for a very long mine life. Zijin has the potential to increase production over time and also extend out that mine life and drive increasing returns. We also thought it was a countercyclical part of the cycle with the lithium. Obviously, a couple of years ago, it was a much higher price points, and we're seeing pretty beaten-up lithium prices right now. So for the modest price of $28 million, I see this paying quarterly royalty checks to shareholders of Triple Flag for decades, if not more, to come. In Q3 last year, we announced a gold stream on the Agbaou and Bonikro mines in Côte d'Ivoire. That's operated by the Allied Gold team, a team with a very successful track record running Yamana, among other things.

This is much more traditional sort of stream for us, gold exposure, very good investment, decent returns for our shareholders, decent terms for our operating partner, classic stream with a short payback period. We get full exposure to life of mine extensions. I think this is exactly the sort of investment that people invest in streaming and royalty companies for. $53 million is not a massive investment, but for a portfolio of our size, it actually nicely makes a difference, and again, it's a tuck-in, and it represented about one quarter's worth of cash flow, actually less than a quarter's worth of cash flow. I want to turn to the trading multiples. Valuation always matters, and when I see this, what's happened, our shares have actually performed quite well since the IPO. We've outperformed our peer group.

But when you look at the valuations, they just haven't remotely caught up to the improvements we made in the portfolio, the production increases that we've driven, and then also the impact of the rising gold price. So you'll see on a PNAV basis and a price-to-cash flow basis, we're very modestly valued right now. I'll also point out that the PNAVs right now, the NAVs reflect consensus prices, which are lagging spot prices very, very significantly. I think there's a really good argument that the consensus prices are just a lagging indication or calculation of the spot prices who are likely to increase in the future. This is a slide which illustrates our relative growth potential, so the last slide spoke to the valuations being quite reasonable.

If we're at a size where if we deploy $300 million, it actually really moves the needle for us. In terms of the opportunity set, I think we have the same opportunity set as anyone in the sector. If there's a $300 million stream on offer, we're going to get a call, and probably our five peers are going to get a call and are most likely ones to come away with that asset. Given our relative size, that transaction has a much greater impact on growth. Earlier, I referred to a run-rate of $270 million on average over the life of Triple Flag. If we just do that in the future, I'll be very disappointed. If we deploy $1 billion over the next three or four years, that's actually meaningfully going to change the profile of Triple Flag.

And what's fantastic is that's going to represent cash flow. So that's not going to shareholders and asking for dilutive equity financing. It's really going to be generated off of the cash flow we have right now, and you're going to see a really significant increase in cash flow per share and the other metrics. We just listed there the capital deployment in our sector and then the impact that has on the growth profile. I'm going to close with the investment case. This is the first slide I put up as well. Benjamin Graham made the famous statement, you've all heard it, that in the short run, the market is a voting machine, and in the long run, the market is a weighing machine. And it's my thesis that we're adding to the weight, the metaphorical weight of Triple Flag, as we increase our cash flows continuously.

Really, I think cash flow is the single most important metric here. These cash flows come from a great portfolio, great mines, well-diversified, centered in really good jurisdictions, the potential for expansion. The portfolio has embedded growth in it. We also have a strong balance sheet, and what we're going to do is quite simple. We're going to take these robust cash flows. We're going to increase the dividend every year. That's what we've done every year since we've gone public. We're going to take the excess cash flows, and we're going to reinvest them for further growth to the benefit of shareholders. Thank you very much.

Maybe I'll start with a question here, if you want. Your portfolio is actually generating more production than some of your peers, but in one of the slides you highlighted there that some of those peers actually trade at higher multiples. So I guess a two-part question. One, why do you think there's a disconnect on that multiple piece? And then two, do you think mid-cap companies can actually catch up to the large-cap peers in the future?

Yeah, thanks, Renee. One thing is we are the youngest of the companies from a public standpoint, so we've just gone public a few years ago, and I think there is this continual seasoning period in the market, and if you look, since we've gone public, we've been closing that valuation gap. When we started Triple Flag in 2016, what we set out to build was a company that had the same sort of characteristics as the Wheatons and Francos and Royal Golds of the world, that was really what our aspiration is, I think actually we've built that, but it takes time to get investors to recognize the quality there. In terms of closing the gap, you've seen that gap close over time. It of course doesn't close overnight, and it doesn't close in a straight line, but our relative performance has tracked quite, quite well.

But I'm looking forward to kind of, I think, part of my job is to make the case to the investing public and the market that we deserve the higher multiples that the big guys do. And again, I think the growth that we have is actually a huge advantage because it's just easier for us to grow than someone that's just bigger. That's just kind of math.

In one of your slides, you talked about your activity on the NCIB. You've been buying shares in the market, but you also have some pretty large shareholders out there as well. So maybe you can talk a little bit about how the management kind of balances that thought process?

Yeah, I don't view the, so we have a 67% shareholder. It's Elliott. And actually, I don't see any conflict at the NCIB and Elliott's holding, and I'll go into that. But just to give people that aren't familiar a bit of the background, we started off as a private company. Again, I talked about we had a clean sheet of paper. 100% of our capital is provided by Elliott as a private company. We IPO'd in 2021. Elliott hasn't sold a single share since, ever. They didn't sell a single share on the IPO, and they haven't sold a single share since. On the IPO, we did a treasury offering, paid down debt, and that diluted Elliott down to 83%. And then we did a large acquisition of a company called Maverix Metals a few years ago.

We wanted to put more cash in the deal, but they really liked our paper, and so we issued some shares there on an accretive deal. Very successful deal. That brought Elliott down to 67%. So they've been trending down slowly over time as we've issued shares for good reasons. On the NCIB, people refer to returning capital to shareholders, and there's that view, but the real benefit of the NCIB is you reduce the denominator, and every remaining shareholder owns a little bit more of the company. I don't actually see any conflict with Elliott there. Elliott likes the company, and they like what they hold, and they own a little bit more as well. The liquidity has actually tracked quite well. So when we came out of the gates on the IPO, we suffered from lower liquidity.

We actually were under $1 million a day traded per day before the Maverix acquisition. The latest numbers I've seen have been averaging around eight or nine million USD a day. So again, not where we want to be at the end of the day, but it's actually come up quite nicely. And if we have an opportunity to, if the market gives us an opportunity to reduce the denominator at a very reasonable price, and I think right now the shares do not come close to reflecting the cash flow generation of this portfolio, we're going to take advantage of that.

You mentioned your excitement actually around silver in the portfolio. So I guess, one, are there any exciting silver opportunities out there? And then two, are there opportunities in your portfolio to expand the areas of interest?

Yeah, no, great, great, great question. I am a little bit excited about silver. I know there's a few people probably at this conference that feel the same way. What I really want to do is be on good properties with good endowments, good operators, all those standard things. And then if it's gold or silver, I'm happy either way. And really, I want to keep a precious metals focus overall. We did enter into an agreement in late last year. We've referred to it at our MD&A, so this is in our public disclosure, but it's on a no-names basis right now because the transaction hasn't closed and there's a, the other parties don't want that disclosed until closed. But that actually is a primary silver stream. Latin America, primary silver, a little bit of gold as well. And I think that's kind of right in our wheelhouse.

So yeah, I'm excited about it. I'm completely excited about it.

Sounds good. Maybe just one more question before we let you go. Oh, I lost my thought. Maybe I'll just let you go. Sorry. Last question. Thank you very much, Shaun.

Thank you very much, everyone.

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