Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. (TSX:TWM)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2020

May 14, 2020

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. first quarter results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one on your telephone. If you require any further assistance, please press star zero. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Joel Vohra. Thank you. Please go ahead, sir.

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Thank you. Good morning or good afternoon on the East Coast. Thank you everybody for joining our conference call today. On the call, as usual, with me today is Joel MacLeod, Tidewater's President and CEO. Before passing the call over to Joel for a review of the quarterly highlights, I'd like to remind you that some of the comments made today are forward-looking in nature and based on Tidewater's current expectations, estimates, judgments, and projections. Forward-looking statements may differ and are subject to risk and uncertainties, which can cause actual results to differ from expectations. For more information on our assumptions and estimates and non-GAAP measures, please refer to our various financial reports, which are available on tidewatermidstream.com and on SEDAR. With that, I'll pass it over to Joel MacLeod for a review of the quarterly highlights for the first quarter of 2020.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Thanks, Joel. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our Q1 2020 conference call. Since our last conference call just over two months ago, a lot has changed due to COVID, the unprecedented shock to the global economy, capital markets, credit markets, and our oil and gas industry. Our entire team has done a phenomenal job in being nimble and dynamic to respond to the crisis and, more importantly, keep all our staff, employees, and partners safe, and I wish to thank our entire team for all their efforts over the past two months, as it has been a challenging time for all. Our business, although not untouched, has remained resilient, and to only see a 10%-20% impact to our business has been an impressive accomplishment.

To see our largest shareholder in Birch Hill, who is known as some of the smartest mid-market capital in Canada, and some would argue across North America, add to their holdings through the toughest of times is a huge vote of confidence for Tidewater and our shareholders. It is important to also note that we will be one of the companies that is a leader on the recovery, and we have seen Prince George rack prices on diesel and gasoline increase dramatically in the past 30 days and have seen a material increase in demand at Prince George in the last few weeks. The backbone of our resiliency is the contracted nature of our business, with over 70% of our EBITDA coming from long-term agreements and approximately 50% of our EBITDA from investment-grade counterparties.

Our focus remains on deleveraging and getting back to three to three and a half times debt to EBITDA into the end of the year, where the sale of the Pioneer Pipeline for CAD 138 million remains on track to close before year-end, and we expect to execute the definitive agreement by the end of May. Our credit syndicate remains very supportive, and although we do not have a need to rely on government support, we have applied for various government programs, including the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. We are in regular conversations with EDC and BDC, as we do business with both of them today, and there is potential that we will qualify for the Large Employer Emergency Financing Facility program, should this be something we want to pursue.

We are also in various discussions with various government agencies on some meaningful projects that could potentially become material to Tidewater over the coming years. We are likely to continue to see significant government stimulus and intensive infrastructure capital deployment period over the coming 12-24 months, and Tidewater is positioned very well to take advantage of this. This includes some of the largest capital projects in Canada and even North America in and around Prince George, including Site C Dam, Coastal GasLink, LNG Canada, and the Trans Mountain Pipeline, all of which are multi-billion CAD projects. We continue to forecast an increase in adjusted EBITDA of approximately 80% from 2019 to 2020 and are one of only a very few companies that have 80% of per-share EBITDA growth from 2019 into 2020.

Counterparty risk continues to be a focus of the market and want to reiterate that 50% of our EBITDA is from investment-grade counterparties, with Husky being our largest customer on the five-year offtake at Prince George. Husky has been an incredible partner, and we continue to work with them on their force majeure notice where we have notified them that we feel the notice is invalid. We have two investment-grade counterparties at Pipestone. We have over five investment-grade counterparties in our growing gas storage business. We have two investment-grade customers at BRC and an investment-grade customer at Ram River. Our NGL crude oil and ethane counterparties are mostly all investment-grade. We currently are not aware of any material customers being at risk of going into receivership. Back to our Q1 results.

Our Q1 was previously revised downward due to COVID, and then the result roughly came in line with market expectations, where we delivered CAD 41.5 million of adjusted EBITDA and over an 85% increase to Q1 of 2020 from Q1 of 2019. We do expect to see continued EBITDA per share growth through 2020 with the ramp-up of Pipestone into Q2 and the recovery of refined product demand and are now guiding CAD 175 million-CAD 185 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2020, with debt to EBITDA, assuming the Pioneer sale to be 3-3.5 times at year-end. Prince George continues to perform well, where Q1 was impacted by the falling refined product prices at the end of the quarter while we continued to process January and February crude and reduce demand in late March as a result of COVID.

The first half of Q2 will also be impacted by reduced demand and falling refined product prices. Over the past week or so, we have seen a significant improvement in Prince George rack diesel and gasoline prices, and also a pickup in demand. When we acquired Prince George, we emphasized that this would be a key defensive asset in a crude collapse, and although not completely immune, we have seen Prince George crack spreads hold at CAD 44 a barrel or greater in what has been likely the largest oil price shock that we will see in our careers. While de-leveraging remains our focus, we continue to see several downstream-related projects that are under 24-month payouts. Capital expenditures are currently planned to be minimal in 2020 as we focus on de-leveraging, but do want our shareholders to be aware that we have a significant inventory of 50%-plus rate of return projects.

In Q1, our Pipestone Gas Plant continued to be restricted due to delays in third-party infrastructure and minor operational issues where we averaged over 60 million a day of throughput. This impacted our Q1 results by approximately 5%-10%. As of early April, all our third-party infrastructure at Pipestone was online, and we have seen our best runtimes and throughput levels at Pipestone, with peak rates at full capacity and averaging in the 80 million cubic feet a day range. Great to have our Pipestone Plant now running at or better than expectations, and it remains fully contracted. Throughput on the Pioneer Pipeline continued to be strong and is supported by a 15-year take-or-pay contract with TransAlta.

The sale of Pioneer Pipeline continues to proceed, where we believe the definitive agreement will be signed around the end of the month. We do expect closing of the transaction to occur in the fourth quarter. We continue to be committed to our ESG performance by investing in infrastructure to increase energy and natural resource efficiency, reduce emissions, and enhance environmental performance. Our employees and contractors have embraced this commitment. Our ESG committee continues to meet weekly and is in the process of developing a website interface for the investment community to view as part of its transparency to communicate key environmental performance metrics. We are also seeing significant interest from various government agencies for funding for some of our initiatives.

To reiterate, although not untouched, and we will likely be impacted by the previously disclosed 10%-20% in Q2 2020, it does appear the worst is now behind us. We are seeing gasoline and diesel demand increase over the past week or two, and we are well-positioned for what is likely to be one of the largest economic stimulus and infrastructure build periods in our lifetime. Our business remains resilient through what is likely to be one of the worst possible crisis for the oil and gas industry, and it is a function of the contracted nature of our infrastructure assets accompanied with strong defensive assets. We are confident in our ability to deliver CAD 175 million-CAD 185 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2020, with debt to EBITDA, assuming the closing of the Pioneer sale, to be 3 to 3.5 times at year-end.

I do want to thank our staff, board, shareholders, credit syndicate partners, and all stakeholders for all your support through these challenging times. I'll now pass it over to Mr. Vohra, and he can walk you through some of the details around the financial side of our Q1.

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Thanks, Joel. I'll start with the top-line revenue. Revenue came in at about CAD 252 million, in line with the prior quarter, within 5% of the prior quarter, and about 100% increase for the same period in 2019, mainly as a result of the 2019 capital program. Those projects coming online as well as the big driver would be the Prince George Refinery. Gross operating margin, adjusted for realized gains on the hedging program, was CAD 45 million, in line with the prior quarter and approximately 80% increase for the same period in the prior year. Operating margin percentage was about 17%, which is consistent with prior periods and likely what we'll experience going forward even with the addition of the refinery.

EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was approximately CAD 42 million, which, as Joel noted, was impacted by a slower-than-expected ramp-up of the Pipestone Gas Plant related to liquids and C5 connections to third-party infrastructure, as well as decreased refined product pricing toward the end of the first quarter and a slowdown in demand toward the end of the first quarter. The increase in EBITDA from the same period in the prior year was obviously the result of contributions from the Pipestone Gas Plant, Pioneer Pipeline, Prince George Refinery, Pipestone Gas Storage, mainly obviously the 2019 capital program, as well as the addition of PGR. As Joel noted, the refinery was impacted by approximately 25% compared to our expectations as a result of the slowdown in demand and decrease in refined product pricing.

The Pipestone Gas Plant, although now connected to all third-party infrastructure and averaging north of 80 million cubic feet a day. I think the last update we had saw us north of 99% runtime in the last 30 days or so, which is good news, but was impacted in the first quarter by approximately 30% due to some of the delays in connections to pipelines, and then some operational issues as far as moving up to capacity. Today, plant continues to run at or near capacity. Gas storage business generally softer in the winter, but as we move into the summer injection season, continues to be one of those natural hedges to low price environments as far as gas prices are concerned. Moving into the summer injection gas storage season should be positive for the business.

Again, the Gathering and Processing business largely not impacted to date, obviously watching prices and counterparties and customers and doing all we can to help our customers continue to flow volumes. Today, plants continue to run well on the G&P side. Extraction and the frac and straddle plant business. Tough winter for that business with frac spreads at multi-year lows, expected with propane differentials and some movements in pricing and contango in the curve to continue to help and act as a natural hedge again in the summer months and into Q4. Expect that business to perform well here in the latter half of the year. As far as payout ratio and distributable cash flow, distributable cash flow was approximately CAD 12.5 million for the quarter with a payout ratio of about 27%.

A bit of a reduction from the prior quarter, mainly as a result of a full quarter of the borrowing costs related to the acquisition of the Prince George Refinery and also additional leases as a result of that refinery, mainly the feedstock pipeline into the refinery, as well as about CAD 2.7 million of decommissioning costs that were budgeted for the quarter, which won't be recurring quarter-over-quarter. That was a bit of a one-time in Q1 that was budgeted. We do expect payout ratio to remain under 25% for the year and under 20% exiting the year. Feel good about the dividend and maintaining a low payout ratio and applying the excess distributable cash flow to reducing debt on top of the big lever, which would be the Pioneer Pipeline sale. I think I'll open it up to the floor for questions.

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, please press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny of National Bank Financial. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Thank you. Hey, guys. Maybe just to start with a bit more color on why you view the force majeure as being invalid and what the next steps are here in terms of legal proceedings or perhaps looking to settle with Husky by renegotiating some of the terms of the agreement. How should we think about recovering some of the near-term cash flow impact here from the force majeure? Just curious how you expect to mitigate some of this impact through railing to other markets.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah, no problem, Pat. Joel here. Overall, I would say daily Husky continues to be great to work with. Right as we speak today, we don't see any reason why there's legal action or any other components that are required, as right now they're forecasting to meet their full commitment and take or pay. I think when we issued that press release, it was near kind of the worst possible times around COVID coronavirus and awful tough. Even in the past two weeks, Pat, we've seen a big pickup. BC, I think most of you are aware as far as COVID cases are single digit type of numbers here yesterday and the last few days are definitely under 50 a day. Interior BC has been relatively unimpacted. We've got some of the largest capital projects in all of Canada around Prince George.

We don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but it definitely feels a lot better. We see the daily pulls from the refinery, and I would say things are looking like we're on track and no legal action will be required.

Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Sorry, just to clarify, Husky is back to pulling their full off-take obligation today?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah. Within 5% would be my message as of today. We're happy with what we're seeing, and they've been a great partner, and at this point, there's no need for any legal action.

Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay, great. Just looking at Q1, you guys hit your EBITDA guidance again. Net debt went up another CAD 30 million or so from year-end levels. Looks like it was all working capital related. We're not quite seeing yet free cash flow starting to kick off the de-leveraging process. Would you expect net debt to begin trending down here starting in Q2, or are there some other working capital items that still need to be smoothed out before net debt starts to actually come down?

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah, it's something, Pat, that we look at every day, obviously, cash flow and related net debt. I'd say most of that increase is, as you noted, working capital related. Some of that is timing. Some of that is the decline in refined product pricing toward the end of Q1 that maybe impacted projections a little bit. I'd say Q1 to Q2, we wouldn't expect a material move down yet. I would say flat or maybe a little bit lower. Into Q3 and Q4, obviously with the sale of the Pioneer Pipeline, there's some other smaller non-core pieces we don't need to get into. Once we get into Q3, Q4, I think we start to see the material move down to Q1, to Q2, especially given sort of revised guidance.

We expect somewhere flat to a little down, but we see the big move in the second half and especially Q4 2020.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

The key, Pat, too, will be these last 45 days, refined product pricing as well. The Q1 prices dropped like a rock and probably the biggest drop that we've ever seen. Q2 today, to Joel's point, we think as far as debt reduction, relatively flat, maybe a small decrease. Should you see a material move up and continuing with refined products and, yeah, you could see us chip away at that debt into Q2. To his point, Q3, Q4 as well, where you start to see some material headway in us reducing our debt, and that's our focus today.

Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Understood. I guess that leads to the question of near-term liquidity. I see only CAD 20 million or so left on the CAD 600 million bank line at the end of the quarter. Are you looking to move up the credit capacity to the full CAD 650 million? Maybe you can just confirm if you're in compliance with all the conditions to do so.

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

We're definitely in compliance, Pat, and no covenant issues either, and we've stress tested, obviously, as I think everybody has, all of our peers. We've stress tested forecasts. Don't foresee any covenant issues. Agree, we are close to the top of that credit line. We do have the accordion feature of CAD 50 million available to us. We would be able to meet those sort of thresholds, although it's not something that we think we're going to need to access. We have had discussions with the syndicate, and it's there should we decide to go down that path. Today, we haven't seen the need to go that route, but it is there. There's also multiple other capital providers, which again, would be something that we likely would not go down that route.

Yeah, tight today, but not seeing issues, and we do have some tools in the toolbox to access should we need to, and that accordion feature of CAD 50 million is one of them. Then again, there's multiple other. I wouldn't say that a plan A would be any type of guarantee program that the government has rolled out, but I'm just trying to give you a sense of some of the other tools in the toolbox. There's definitely some liquidity available to us should we need it.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Pat, I think the other message would just be, it's not something we're going to head down, but we're getting weekly inbounds on even inventory, purchasing our refined product inventory, but also even on our other contracted assets. Again, it's not something we're going to do today. Our credit syndicate, though, is aware that we've got some very big levers if we got in a situation to have to use those, even on non-op interest. That is highly unlikely and that is plan Z as we look at options. Do want the market and the shareholders to be aware that we've got lots of options if we had to go down the path.

Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay, great. Just last one from me, guys. Looks like you disposed of your propane distribution at the end of the. I know it's not overly material to the EBITDA guidance, but if you could just remind us what the annual EBITDA contribution was from that business. Also just maybe a quick comment on if there's any other asset sale opportunities that you could pursue if you needed to shore up the liquidity situation.

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah, I think, good question, Pat, that I think, like I've said, that deal was a little bittersweet. That brings us back to early days at Tidewater, it was about CAD 2 million of EBITDA. It was a nice business early on, looking for premiums in NGL prices for producers to be able to access a retail market like that. As we grow, we want to be focused on the larger assets. You're right, we did sell the retail propane business. It was a good business for us, about CAD 2 million of EBITDA annually. Not quite material to us anymore. Definitely a good business and a little bittersweet for that sale. A good deal overall. Then as far as other opportunities, I'd say outside of the larger contracted core assets, there are some non-core pieces that we're exploring.

Would it move the needle from a deleveraging or capital perspective? Not so much. The same goes from the EBITDA perspective, not necessarily material to us anymore. We do continue to move multiple sort of non-core initiatives forward, but it's not something that would significantly move the needle today outside our larger contracted assets. Joel, anything to add?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

No, I think well put, Joel. We did recognize a nice gain on that sale, which is helpful, and continue to look to focus our efforts on larger contracted assets. There continues to be capital out there. I think it's going to take a couple of months here for credit markets to settle before we have meaningful bids. We're not running any formal processes, but I think our shareholders have told us where we can deleverage and focus and realize a gain or a reasonable return, we should consider it and more than happy to.

Patrick Kenny
Analyst, National Bank Financial

All right. I'll leave it there. Thanks, guys.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Thanks, Bob.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Hope of Scotiabank. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Rob Hope
Analyst, Scotiabank

Morning, everyone. First question is on PGR. Just taking a look at the May presentation, it shows the updated guidance for that asset of CAD 75 million a quarter. Just want to get a sense of how much of the move down in guidance was volume versus pricing, and then secondly, how much EBITDA did it spin off in Q1?

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah, I'd say it was a bit of both, Rob. Some of that is sort of temporary pain where we moved through that expensive crude. I'd say it's a bit of both. It's tough to say, like Joel said, the lifts have increased here recently. If you would ask that question two weeks ago, maybe the answer might've been a little different. Today, we feel on the volume side, especially with latest forecast, that the contracted volume is sort of forecasted to be lifted. We wouldn't see a big deviation there, although it has impacted Q1 and Q2. I'd say the price piece and the volume, maybe you could call it 50/50 for now, the impact. We do expect to get through that pricing issue as we move through the expensive crude. The volume side has picked up going forward.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

When we announced the Prince George, I think most of your questions are at Prince George, CAD 75 million of EBITDA. I would say, Rob, that holds. We did see, I would say January, February, potential to be in that CAD 100 million range of EBITDA off the refinery, now we would be guiding more back towards that CAD 75 million range for now. Things are moving daily and weekly, and right now things are feeling a lot better than they were two weeks ago.

Rob Hope
Analyst, Scotiabank

What was the EBITDA for Q1 for PGR?

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

It was around, I think it was CAD 16 million-CAD 18 million. I think it's in our financials.

Rob Hope
Analyst, Scotiabank

All right. Then just one volume question. Just in terms of the increased demand over the last little while, can you split it up between gasoline and diesel? Which one has kind of been lagging? Which one's been doing better?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

I'd say gasoline a little better than diesel, but both products have seen increases.

Rob Hope
Analyst, Scotiabank

All right. Thanks.

Operator

Your next question.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Thanks, Rob.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Catellier of CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Thank you everybody. Just some follow-up questions here on PGR. In your revised guidance, I'm curious what sort of full-year crack spread you're looking at, or I don't know how you want to skin the cat on this, but what you're thinking in terms of utilization or some other figures you can give us to sort of get to a range.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yep, no problem, Rob. We did bring the refinery down to 7,500-8,000 barrels a day over a two to three-week period in April, which was messaged. We do expect to run, as we speak today, back up to near full capacity or at full capacity. Conservatively, we'd say 11-11.5 for the remainder of the year. If you said for full 2020, I would expect we'll still hit that 11,000-ish barrel a day range should we continue to see demand where it's at today. If it increases, we definitely will be pushing to run at higher rates and even push what those could be. If you said, has there been a revision? I'd say overall, no, there hasn't been a revision on the throughput side. I think the other point to your question is just on the crack spread.

Crack spread, when we bought the asset, we said CAD 44 a barrel or higher. I would say today, we would be reiterating that. I would say January, February, we were seeing CAD 50 and even CAD 60-plus cracks on certain days. There we're getting a sense that we may significantly outperform. Today, I think we'd just want to be conservative, and we'd reiterate back to when we bought the asset, which is CAD 75 million of EBITDA at CAD 44 cracks and throughput 11 to 11.5 a day for calendar 2020.

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. That's quite helpful. The strategy is, even though you're not getting lifted at the full rates, still produce as much as you can and use some storage wherever needed?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yep. Hopefully, we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, that we can crank up the refinery to 12 and even potentially a touch above 12 should we see this increase continuing into summer and with Site C Dam, LNG Canada, Coastal GasLink, Trans Mountain kicking into full gear. Again, we may be a little ahead of ourselves there, so let's just plan for 11 to 11.5 for the year for now.

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. Can you talk about the relative match on the hedging between the feedstock and the refined product? Are those relatively well-matched in terms of both timing and volumes?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah. In general, relatively matched, although when we did bottom out there at the end of March and into April, part of the realized gain is we were unwinding a portion of the refined product piece.

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Is the book balanced at this point, or are you open on the product costs?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

With prices coming back up, we have come back into balance here. We'll admit, at times, we are out of balance by 5%-10%. Part of that is you cannot hedge direct to a PG crack-

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Right

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

on an efficient basis. You must hedge the ULSD or RBOB versus going direct to a PG crack. If we wanted to hedge direct to a PG crack, we would take a CAD 15-CAD 20 a barrel haircut on that CAD 44 a barrel crack. We're only hedging 20-ish % of our refinery production today, just given there is no way to hedge a clean Prince George crack.

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

It sounds to me like that implies actually a little bit of leverage to your margins, doesn't it? If you're more hedged on the feedstock?

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

I think there's some inherent, if your question, Rob, is inherent in the asset, I'd say yes. With cheap crude feedstock, yeah, I think there's some inherent upside in the margins on the asset side of things.

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. Just in the Gathering and Processing, is there enough of a ramp in Pipestone availability to offset some declines you might see in the second quarter? Although it sounds like you haven't really seen much yet, what's the interplay there, or what we might expect sequentially in the Gathering and Processing?

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah. I'd say on the gathering and processing side of things, we haven't seen big moves. Our two largest plants on the G&P side, outside of Pipestone, Ram River and Brazeau, we've seen Brazeau volumes move up a little bit. Ram has held steady. Gas price has remained pretty unvolatile and strong up until probably the last couple of week period, where maybe we've seen a little bit of volatility, and the liquids pricing has impacted a bit. We haven't seen, and we don't expect based on producer discussions, material shut-ins on that side of the business. To your question, can Pipestone offset the rest? I would say we don't expect a material decline on the G&P side, and Pipestone now is running around capacity on a take-or-pay basis and 99-plus % runtime.

Yeah, I'd say, I don't know if I've answered your question, Rob, but we don't expect big declines on one side, and now Pipestone's running fairly consistent.

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. That's kind of where I was going. Just final question, I did want to follow up on the liquidity position that Pat raised earlier. Your answers were helpful. I just want to make sure I understand. It seems like you're pretty close to needing the accordion. Your comments made it sound like you don't really necessarily need it. I'm wondering if you could just give a little more clarity on there. Is that because of just your view of the cash flow from the operations, or does it assume some sort of access to another type of financing? You mentioned some of the government programs. Just walk me through the thoughts. Are you just getting there organically through the operations, or is there something else at play?

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah. I think more so organically through the operations. We do, when you look at the balance sheet and you see inventory levels there, we do have a big working capital piece, so it's almost a point in time when you look at availability on the credit facility. That'll fluctuate CAD 20 million-CAD 30 million in a month. From a working capital perspective, there's a little more liquidity there than maybe a snapshot in time or how it was. As far as the accordion on the credit facility, maybe I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves on whether we go down that path or not, understanding we haven't gone through the full process with our syndicate. We would need all the conditions to be able to exercise that piece.

I think just in general, Rob, between-The working capital piece and some other short-term levers, and based on our positive cash flow payout ratio, and how the assets are performing today, we don't necessarily see a need for it this second. I suppose it's one of the levers that we could pull on, but without going too far, I wouldn't want to commit to one way or another, or one path or another, without having something definitive with our syndicate. Our banks continue to remain supportive. Like I said, we've stress-tested models and cash flow and covenants, and we remain within all those pieces, so I'm not concerned.

Robert Catellier
Analyst, CIBC Capital Markets

Okay. That's helpful. I understand. Thank you.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Kwan of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Robert Kwan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Great. Good morning. If I can just start on the Husky force majeure. A couple things. Have you quantified what the impact to EBITDA was before Husky started pulling volumes close to the take or pay?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yep. Happy to handle. Joel, you can jump in as well. I would say, Rob, when the force majeure notice came across, there was risk of 20%-25% impact. What we've seen in the last two weeks in our conversations, they've been a great partner. Pulls, demand have increased, we do expect them to meet their full year forecast.

Robert Kwan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, effectively, whatever you've lost here in the first quarter, you think they'll make it up in the remainder of the year?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yes.

Robert Kwan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. Then the comments about using rail if they're pulling their take or pay volume, is that largely just to work off the inventory build or is there some other dynamic?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

As far as Husky's doing, they're doing a great job of increasing the pulls and as a result, they are sending cars in at times. We also do utilize our rail car fleet at time when we see there's opportunities. We do want to continue to open up new markets, and we have from Eastern Canada to the Pacific Northwest. Even with gasoline inventories coming down across North America over the last few weeks, we have had some inbounds on both diesel and gasoline into some markets that are potentially a little short here with refinery run times moving down again. We don't want to get ahead of ourselves, there's definite dislocations and we want to use our rail car fleet to take advantage of those dislocations.

Robert Kwan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. Just turning to the NGL year, do you have any general comments on the dynamics that played out in the basin? You mentioned the BRC volumes are pretty much full. Specifically to that, though, can you also talk of the frac fees?

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah. I'd have to confirm. I think our frac fees are somewhat in line with prior year.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Maybe a touch. Maybe 5%-10% up, Rob, but roughly in line with previous years.

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

As far as capacity, again, all things considered, successful NGL year as far as contracting those pieces around the frac and as far as NGL volumes. We do have a couple two, three-year contracts there. Overall, as far as capacity at the frac, we're pleased. I suppose the one piece that would be impacted would be around NGL volumes related to straddle operations or extraction at Brazeau or the straddle plants. With frac spreads where they are, yeah, that was tough in Q4, Q1. Definitely on the lower end of what we've seen historically when you see where frac spreads are today. As far as contracted volumes, consistent with prior years and the frac today remains on any given day, 80%+ full, if not full.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yeah. Public data will show our throughput at our Brazeau frac and it is a 10,000 barrel a day C2+ frac and we would be running 80%-90% capacity today, which is great to see in one of our better performing assets for sure.

Robert Kwan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. If I can just finish with the Pipestone PGR integration. Have you run any condensate volumes out of Pipestone into PGR yet?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Yep. We've tracked not a material amount of volume, Rob. It hasn't made a ton of sense, but we definitely have moved volumes by truck and that's gone well. Especially today, you'll see Prince George rack prices, gasoline is ahead of diesel. For us on a condensate to get a little more gasoline off of a condensate, it's definitely something we continue to evaluate and want to be ready to move. With the strength in sweet versus condensate, it's also we've got our pipe connection at Valhalla, and then we also have our refinery. We've got some great tools in our toolbox to manage sweet versus C5. In May, we saw very wide differentials on sweet and locked in most of our volumes at that CAD -14 monthly index price at Prince George.

Robert Kwan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Got it. I guess just obviously, hopefully we can get some better markets, but is part of the strategy to try to run a little bit more condensate through and maybe just prove to the customers there or show them what the margins could be as a way of, you can send them down the road to get into the take-or-pay?

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Absolutely. The more we could show customers optionality, and even through, I think, the downturn and the recovery, to know the potential that they could look at price exposure to diesel or gasoline versus just a crude oil price, is something customers are of value. I'd say, obviously, today it's tough as everyone's so beat up. As we get through and somewhat back to normal, I think some of our customers are and will definitely entertain having a price linked to a diesel or gasoline price. To Rob, where your point where hopefully we can contract out some of Prince George on a take-or-pay fee for service basis rather than us taking that risk on the crack spread, trying to lock that in with producers. Again, don't want to get ahead of ourselves or overpromise, but it's something we definitely want to continue to push forward.

Robert Kwan
Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

That's great. Thanks very much.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Thank you, Rob.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I turn the call back over to the presenters.

Joel MacLeod
Chairman and CEO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

Thanks, everyone. We really appreciate your time today. Stay safe. Joel, anything else you want to add?

Joel Vohra
VP, Finance and CFO, Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure

I think just thanks for everybody's support. Thank you for joining the call. Obviously, for what's been feels like a tough couple of years or more for the industry, it continues to see some headwinds. At the same time, to look on the positive side and see how the assets and the business react to significant stress on commodity prices. We've seen negative gas prices in the prior two years. We've now seen negative crude oil. I thought we had seen almost every scenario. Now it feels like we've seen every scenario. To see how the business reacts, I suppose, on the positive side is encouraging. Just want to thank everybody for their support. Again, stay safe and hopefully, things will be back to normal here in some time. Thank you again.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.