Please stay tuned for our next presenting company, Northstar Clean Technologies, a Canadian clean technology company focused on the sustainable recovery and reprocessing of asphalt shingles. We'll be joined by Aidan Mills, the present CEO of Northstar. This has been a really fun story to follow over the last few years. We've been a client working with Aidan since they went public in July. I want to say July of, man, how many years ago was that now? Is it four? I'm not sure if Aidan can hear me yet.
Are you there?
There you go. How are you doing, Aidan?
Good, man. How are you?
Good, good. Yeah, Aidan's here. He's going to plow through the presentation for 12 or 13 minutes, and then we're going to have some Q&A. I'm sure we're going to have a lot of it for you today, Aidan. I'll sign off and let you rip through it.
Right. I'll pop the slides up here in a minute. I think you were saying four years. I've presented at Kinvestor, I think, for the last three years. Thanks for the invite. Great to be here. I can tell you, my man, and you know this from me most recently, this is literally the most exciting time in this company's history. We have a fully constructed and fully commissioned first commercial facility. We have outstanding quality products coming out the back end. We're ramping that facility up now to hit production targets and cash flows. Our expansions look great in Ontario and in the U.S. I'm going to talk today about the path to a billion dollars for this company.
Love to hear it.
Okay, let me pop these slides up. Sorry. You can tell me if they're all good.
Yep.
Okay, can you see them?
I can see it. We're good.
All right. Sorry. There we go. All right. So look, I mean, most people have a good idea. Oh, you know, oh, usual forward-looking statements. Most people have a good idea about our business model. We, and I've got some props with me now for this investor. We basically take asphalt shingle tiles that either are manufactured waste or that come off roofs, and we split it up and turn it into their individual products. Now, because we have a facility that's commissioned, I can show you individual products. This is literally the pellets that are coming out the back end of the facility in Calgary, and this is the highest value product that we have. I'll kind of trip through this a little bit as we go.
Today's all about kind of like, you know, kind of updating everybody in the business model and chatting a little bit about where we've been since the last investor presentation. I've highlighted some stuff as we go here. Everybody knows the figure. Actually, when I joined Northstar four years ago, the figure of shingles destined for landfill was 12 million tons. It shows you that even though we always talk about 16.5 and we work out our volumes based on that, this is a growing problem. That 16.5 million is now more than 20 million barrels of oil. As you know, a shingle tile is about 50% sand, about 25% asphalt, and about 25% fiber and limestone. Limestone is something that we've added a patent for. We announced that in September.
The real driver for that was that shingle manufacturers, and more so now than they did in the past, add limestone to the asphalt. When we were thinking about the quality of the product that came out the back end and reducing the amount of solids that were in our final asphalt, that's what our patent actually does. It actually takes the limestone out of the asphalt before it comes off the back of the system. As you guys know, tipping fees, kind of 35%, products roughly 65%. As I showed you, the asphalt that I showed you, that is by far the most valuable, you know, 95% of the value of the back-end products. Limestone will be very similar to aggregate, so kind of in the $10- $20 range that we would expect at the back end. I mean, I've often talked about the partners that we have.
The most important thing with respect to, in my view, with respect to the partnerships is not that these are all multi-billion dollar companies. Obviously, that's huge validation. Actually, every single one of these partners, both on the industry side and on the finance side, did huge due diligence on Northstar. As an investor, you know that TAMKO's operations team came to the Delta pilot plant. Colas did the R&D and helped us with the design. As we talk about the financial partners, the government, Emissions Reduction Alberta did a full due diligence process. CVW did an independent assessment and report. All of this really to say that all these people have invested or we have off-take agreements, and they've done lots of due diligence on this technology. Now the technology is starting to deliver.
Emissions Reduction Alberta, as you guys know, four steps in the process with them for funding. Number one, when we completed details of design, tech funded for that. Number two, when we completed construction, tech, funding for that. Now the critical step is commissioning. The third step for Emissions Reduction Alberta is to determine that the plant is commissioned and has moved into operation. That target, there's two things that we have to do for that. The first thing is bring them into site and show them that everything's operating. Secondly, hit the target of 80 tons a day. That's their tip that says, "We now believe that Northstar has moved into operation." That's the critical path for Q4, and that's the thing that we will be doing, we will be delivering. Let me just jump down.
Emissions Reduction Alberta were at site last week to do the first part of that, to tick off, everything's operating. They could see literally shingles going in the front end and pellets coming out the back end. They came to do that validation, everything completely done. The interesting thing, and why I wanted to show this picture, the picture on the left-hand side was sent to me by our lead from Emissions Reduction Alberta. He wanted to show us what the site looked like this time last year. He came on the 4th of October to do a walk around, just of the site, etc., to talk about the plans. That's what it was, a concrete pad. When he came last week on the right-hand side, that's what it is now.
His point was, "Look, going from left or right, you guys have done a huge amount now." As you know, I'm always impatient about when's production coming and you know when's commercial delivery and when was it getting constructed and all that kind of stuff. We've been relentless on the pursuit of delivering on the thing on the right-hand side. That's just a perspective for everybody as kind of, you know, then and now. Plant fully commissioned. You've seen these slides before. Oil was coming out the back in July. Pellets just after that. Now what happens next? The quality of this stuff is outstanding. The lab results back, the reflection back from our customers, both future customers and existing customers, has been really strong. This looks like a great product, both in the liquid form and in the pellet form.
As I said, the drive is 80 tons a day with the Emissions Reduction Alberta target, and then to ramp the plant up to full capacity. Obviously, the objective, and I'll chat a little bit about this in a minute, the objective to move the plant to 24/7, which needs 80,000 tons of supply. We're working on all that supply stuff to secure that. I think that's going to be kind of in 2026. The last point, of course, is all around continuous improvement. As we look at the next, this is not a one-off. We haven't built a $300 million facility that needs to take shingles from all around Canada to operate. As you know, this is deployable. I'll talk a little bit about how that's going to roll out.
The criteria that we used to think about, and you guys have heard me talk about this before, when we used to think about assessing plants, we used to think about asphalt price versus tipping fee. That has now changed a bit. The first criteria we now look for is, can we get 80,000 tons of supply in the region that we go to? The 80,000 tons enables us to go to 24/7. The economics of the 24/7 are absolutely critical. Single shift, the original Calgary design produces a revenue of about $10 million and an EBITDA of about $5 million. When we have 80,000 tons and we can run the facility 24/7, that's when it transforms the economics to $20 million of revenue and $10 million of EBITDA. I've added to this slide, so what, okay, that's great, nice economics. What is the road to value in the company?
If you take an 80,000 ton facility, we have the expectancy in the model of our tipping fee and our asphalt prices, etc., for that facility, and you deliver $10 million of EBITDA. If you think conservatively about the waste of value space in a relatively conservative multiple of 10, it means that every 80,000 ton facility we build, in theory, we will add $100 million to the EV of Northstar. That's the base economics. You're like, "Very good, Aidan. How are you going to do that?" We have to build 10 facilities. This is massively forward-looking. It's all based on the assumptions within the model, etc. This is the pathway to a billion dollars, which is 10 facilities, producing $10 million of EBITDA, and actually processing 80,000 tons of asphalt. That's how we think we're going to do it. You're like, "Okay, great.
When are you going to do that exactly?" As you know, Calgary, the driver, of course, is to get Calgary up to full capacity, then debottleneck it if we can, if there's enough shingle supply in the region to go to 80,000 tons. That'll be the first one across the line. Hamilton's next, U.S. One's next. We have the portfolio, as you know, with the relationship with TAMKO , the first four plants in the U.S. already have secured supply, already have minimum pricing above cash flow breakeven. Those are absolute no-brainers to deliver in the portfolio. We need to hit 10 plants to be a billion dollars. That's essentially the story. Every single CEO in this call at our own day-to-day will say they're undervalued. We believe we're spectacularly undervalued. We believe we have a plan.
What you should see in the catalyst in the next quarter are, number one, delivering on the E R A production in Calgary. Number two, the announcement of U.S. One. Oh, and sorry, in Calgary as well, first commercial product coming out and the first commercial sales. I think that's the summary of the story, Aaron. I guess back to you for questions.
Perfect. Thanks so much. We do have questions. If you do have some, please type them into the Q&A box. Let's talk about the benefits of these asphalt pellets a little bit more. Where's the pivot from that to that all of a sudden?
My background has been global commodities. When you think about asphalt coming out of a facility, we've got two choices here. We can either produce hot oil or we can produce pellets. If you produce hot oil, that's great. We're going to hold it in storage tanks, put it in tankers. It has a logistical distance of probably three to four hours. That's a really good question with respect to TAMKO facility in Maryland. If you look at their facility in Maryland, that basically says we need to have a plant for hot oil that's either in Philadelphia, Delaware, or Baltimore, the eastern seaboard. As we've looked at that, we've already chosen the state, we've chosen the city, we're working on sites, but it has to be three hours to four hours nominally away from the TAMKO facility. These can literally go anywhere in the world.
The real benefit is the logistics and market benefit of having ultimate market access when you pelletize these, because they literally go into half-ton supersacks into shipping containers or whatever, and they can go anywhere. My view for that was always pelletization. My view was always for, I can produce pellets in Calgary, and they can be sold in Europe. That's the massive benefit. There's no logistical constraint whatsoever with producing pellets.
Can you sell them for higher in different markets?
It depends. As you know, the pricing that we've established, we established about a couple of years ago with both the TAMKO agreement and the McAsphalt agreement. If the quality is high enough, we may be able to sell them this as final product rather than literally an input to a shingle facility. It depends. The quality looks really good. It looks like we're making final product. In theory, you'll be able to access markets with a higher product, and we should see that flow to the bottom line.
Yeah, we got a question from Richard. Actually, I had the same thought too, and I was running through the slide with you. Why does doubling your plant's output not improve your EBITDA margins?
Because we're trying to be super conservative. As you know, I think I use the phrase Heimgrenian math.
Yeah, okay.
The revenue should double. If you've got the plant manager, the rent, the building, etc., etc., we should, instead of being $5 million, it should be $11 or $12 million. As we've been, you know, this is all about, we think we can deliver 10 facilities in a billion dollars with a $10 million per year EBITDA. If it's $12 million, that's even better.
Yeah. Someone wants to know what your throughput is today or your average over the last week. I know that's not been disclosed. My question to that is, why does North not share any guidance or forecast like fundamentals?
Ultimately, from, you know, I'll just go back to the time that, you know, my time at BP, my time at Meg, every year we would give some degree of, once you have operating facilities, you can give a degree of guidance at the end of the year for the year ahead. We never reported on any startups whatsoever. Oil and gas companies will talk about the targets that we meet. That's why it's very straightforward for us to say the ER A target is 80 tons a day. When we hit that, that's a massive catalyst, and we will tell people about that.
I can tell you, as long as I'm the head of this company, we will never be in a position where we're reporting weekly production or anything except when we bring a plant on in a new facility and it's ramped up, what we think that will do with respect to the aggregate volume that the company's producing. We need to get into production, right? We need to have, you know, one facility or three facilities or five facilities, and then at the end of the year, that's meaningful with respect to what production looks like.
Yeah. Got another question from William here. Would the expansion of Delta, BC not be much cheaper and faster to complete than a new facility elsewhere? Let's talk about those logistics.
A retrofit of Delta from a capital perspective is obviously part of our plan. The one thing that we need to make sure, though, is in terms of off-take agreements, as we've always done, securing the off-take agreements. Those discussions are ongoing with respect to off-take agreements. What we want to have is a secured off-take agreement because the shingle supply is there. One of the things that's really interesting about Delta is if we pelletize the asphalt, as you know, the Tsawwassen export terminal is like four kilometers or five kilometers from the Delta site. As we talked to the companies that we're talking to about the potential for international export, we couldn't have done that with hot oil, but we can do it with pellets. That's one of the ongoing dialogue points, about international export from Vancouver.
Not yet landed, and we're not building a facility until we have secured off-take agreements.
Okay. Thank you for that. Any taker-pay contracts in your portfolio products?
The off-take from Calgary is a taker-pay, and although not a definitive agreement yet with TAMKO, that will be a taker-pay as well.
Yeah, not sure if you can answer this or not. Are you selling any of your oil already?
Are you saying that again?
Are you selling any of your products yet? I know that you're receiving income from the waste dump, right? Are you selling any of your finished products yet?
All to be announced through Q4 when we describe our results.
Okay. I wasn't sure if you could answer that or not.
I cannot answer that.
Okay. We got a question here from Murray. He says, is there not enough demand for the oil in Vancouver, BC area? Like, why would you have to kind of find buyers outside of that area?
I mean, look, there's demand from paving. There's demand from flat roofing. As you guys know, there's flat roofing manufacturers around there, and there's demand from shingle manufacturing. Sorry. Yeah. And demand for shingle manufacturing. All of those need to be secured by off-take agreements. The discussions are ongoing with respect to Vancouver, but not enough, you know, not enough from a kind of contractual perspective to sanction the build of the facility. Our board's pretty clear. Sure, we'll sanction a plant, but we want to see off-take agreements and some degree where we have done it with IKO here in Calgary and EcoRecycling, some degree of supply agreements. It doesn't need to be 100% of the volume, but needs to give us, you know, good surety that both are buttoned up. The real, and I'm kind of repeating myself, but the real price for Vancouver is the export market.
I mean, then we could build like two facilities and literally just export absolutely everything that we make as a pellet and could be, could be a, yeah, could be a phenomenal price.
Awesome. That's Aidan. We got to jump. Great presentation. Tons of questions. Yeah, you're one of the fan favorites out there. Way to go.
Looking forward to delivering.
Keep on delivering.
Yeah, look forward to delivering this stuff through Q4.
Yeah, right on. Thanks, Aidan.
All right. Thanks, Aaron.