Inpex Corporation (TYO:1605)
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May 1, 2026, 3:30 PM JST
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Earnings Call: Q4 2023

Feb 13, 2024

Takayuki Ueda
President & CEO, INPEX Corporation

Hello, everyone. Thank you very much for participating today. Despite your busy schedule, my name is Ueda. I'm the CEO, and I would like to give a business overview. I'd like to explain using the presentation document. Let me start by talking about oil and gas, and I would like to talk about the net zero. I will explain about what we've done in 2023 and what we will do in 2024. So first of all, let me look back over our business activities in FY 2023 for oil and gas business. As you can see, on the slide, our biggest asset is Ichthys. And we did have, you know, little troubles, but in general, we operated quite stably, and we shipped 129 LNG cargoes over the full year.

Last year, we have indicated that we're going to achieve 9.3 million tons of LNG per year. We tried to achieve that last year, but we weren't quite there. But in terms of facility capacity enhancement, we already have 9.3 million tons of LNG production per year, and we want to work towards achieving that in this new year. And the Ichthys, the net income contribution in the year was about JPY 300 billion. For Abu Dhabi, we have continued with the stable production operation, and we have worked on increasing production capacity in Norway. We've commenced. Well, we started the electricity supply from a floating wind farm, the generated power supply. And this is Hywind Tampen, you can see in the photo. From here to the oil platform in Norway, we are able to accommodate about 30% of the electricity needed for that platform.

And we've started this initiative to supply electricity from this wind farm. Next, Abu Dhabi, there was significant progress with Pertamina and Petronas, the new partners. They have participated in two projects as new partners. And we've decided to add CCS, and we've been consulting with the Indonesian government. And so, we have submitted a revised plan of development, the revised POD. And the Indonesian government approved this revised POD in December last year. As for exploration and others, as you can see here, the Ichthys and Abu Dhabi Block 4, we had continued with the exploration with drilling. And so, what will happen in regards to these assets in 2024, moving to the next phase, starting with Ichthys? Well, the participating interest is likely to increase slightly, 66.245% to 67.82%, as some of you may be aware, Tokyo Gas.

It is going to sell the interest that they have in Ichthys. And we had preemptive rights, and so we decided to exercise this preemptive right. And of course, we have to, you know, fulfill the certain conditions under a contract. And so it hasn't been closed as yet, but if this preemptive rights are exercised without any issue, then we expect participating interest to increase for Ichthys. And for 2024, we have no planned shutdown, and so we're expecting to ship around 11 LNG cargoes per month. And we aim to produce 9.3 million tons per year, and that is what we intend to achieve. And $73 is the equivalent price assumption, and so we expect net income contribution to be about JPY 220 billion. And we'll continue with our work to expand the production at Ichthys.

Abu Dhabi, from 4 million to 5 million BD is what the Abu Dhabi government is trying to achieve overall. And so, Lower Zakum and Upper Zakum, we are going to work on enhancing production capacity in these assets. We'll continue with the development consideration in Norway as well. As for Abu Dhabi, 2024 will be the final preparation year towards reaching FID. So that is how the year is positioned. FEED, the front-end engineering and design, is the next stage. And probably the end of this year or the early next year is when we will probably start the FEED work. So what we are going to do, we are going to do surveys both onshore and offshore. And so, towards FEED.

FEED will be conducted through an open tender, and so we will be deciding on conditions for a company to participate in FEED. So we will decide that. So these are the type of the major activities that we will conduct regarding Abu Dhabi this year. And together with the FEED work, we will also engage in marketing and financing activities. As for Ichthys, we are still drilling exploration wells in WA-343-P, as well as we are continuing with studies and evaluation for the block that we acquired last year, Cash-Maple. The Abu Dhabi onshore Block 4, a certain amount of the oil and the natural gas has been discovered, and we are continuing to evaluate as to whether we're going to proceed to the development of production, which is the next phase.

Next, I'd like to talk about the net zero businesses. And for hydrogen and ammonia, the Kashiwazaki Clean Hydrogen Ammonia project in Niigata, the prefecture, we have commenced the construction of surface plant facilities for this project and in Texas, Houston, and we have started the pre-FEED for a large-scale low-carbon ammonia production export project, CCS, CCUS in Bonaparte, offshore the Northern Territory of Australia. There we are doing the pre-appraisal, the reservoir evaluation, as well as 3D seismic survey, to collect data. And for the CCS, JOGMEC-conducted, we have decided to participate in the survey on implementation of advanced CCS project commissioned by JOGMEC.

Officially selected to also participate in the Tohoku Region West Coast CCS Initiative and Tokyo Metropolitan Area CCS project in addition to those. In Australia, we have acquired 50% share in Enel Green Power Australia, so we're going to engage in a collaboration on a 50/50 basis. Also, we have acquired stake, partially, in the Moray East Offshore Wind Farm in the U.K. And so, we have reached 628 megawatts in net renewable power generation capacity, that is based on our stake. Related to carbon recycling, we have commenced the construction of methanation test facilities. Now moving to the next slide. What are we going to do in 2024? In the hydrogen and ammonia, we'll continue with the construction of the Kashiwazaki Clean Hydrogen Ammonia project.

There is a photo that I wanted to share with you, which indicates the present situation. So this is what the Kashiwazaki looked like right now. What you can see in the middle is the well related to CCS injection. There will be three wells to be drilled, and you can see a rig, and we are currently drilling the wells for that right now. And so this is where the various facilities will be installed, and the rig is located here. It's actually looking at the side from the opposite direction. It's quite a large area, and the CO2 compression facility, the CO2 collection facilities, ammonia production facilities, hydrogen production facility. So we started with the construction of these facilities.

The foundation has already been established mostly, and we will start with building the on-surface facilities. And so, we should be able to conclude the construction of the overall plant by August 2025. Next, so also, in the hydrogen and ammonia area, we'll continue with various activity to start the commercial production of low-carbon ammonia project in Houston, Texas. And for CCS in Bonaparte, we have drilled a new well, and we're going to evaluate how much CO2 we'll be able to inject into this reservoir. Also, a CCS project in Japan too that we have been selected to participate, and we'll continue with study towards potential commercialization of these projects. There are various activities related to renewable energy, and I've already pre-prepared one photo.

Green Power Australia, this is a joint venture with the Enel Green Power Australia, and so we have already started various activities. There are the windmills that have already been established in Flat Rocks. We are installing a new wind turbine as well. So with that, that's what we are doing. And then, yeah, Girgarre, there is a new renewable facility in Bungala and Cohuna. So throughout Australia, we are working wind, solar, and also storage battery. And so we will be stepping up activities in these areas. It may not be too familiar with you as these are the projects overseas, but we are seeing definite progress in these areas. So going back, so in 2024, we are going to engage in activities related to hydrogen ammonia, CCS, renewable energy, as I've described.

Now, next page, progress against medium-term business plan, and that's described on this slide. For 2024, the oil assumption is $73, and FX 130.82 a dollar. These are the assumptions that we've put for 2024. Of course, there are various views, but we are somewhat conservative in these assumptions that we have come up with. Net income for this fiscal year, we're expecting about JPY 330 billion based on IFRS. That is what we are forecasting, and operating cash flow is going to be about JPY 700 billion, 7.7% ROE, and a D/E ratio of 30%. You can see the mid-term targets on the far right, and how we are going. In terms of net income level, of course, there is a difference between IFRS and J-GAAP.

It's somewhat difficult, but if you kind of align the numbers to say J-GAAP, and based on sensitivity for oil price and the exchange rate, and when we do conversion, the net income is slightly probably higher than the mid-term goal. So, in regards to the management goals, I think we are doing quite well. But for business targets, say, for example, net production, we have indicated that we're going to aim for a level exceeding 700,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, but for the FY 2024, expecting 642,000 barrels. Now, in Abu Dhabi and also mid-term, there is a production decrease due to OPEC and U.S., the portfolio asset management; these had some impact, so we need to make a little bit more effort.

Otherwise, we may not be able to reach the target that we set for ourselves, as you can see on this slide. Enthusiasm?

Daisuke Yamada
Senior Managing Executive Officer, Senior Vice President, Finance & Accounting, INPEX Corporation

With the net production, as mentioned, we have the current level as shown, 642. This is the level that we have to work further going forward over the midterm. Because of the midterm plan, this is based on the capital allocation. What we have done over the past three years is shown on the slide. On the left-hand side, this is the midterm business plan over the three-year period and the cash allocation expected. On the right-hand side, we have the three-year. We have the actual for 2023, and then for 2024, we have the plan. The left-hand side is the capital allocation based on the midterm plan, and the right-hand side is the actual capital allocation. We have $60 for the oil assumption. With $70 per barrel, as shown in dotted line, it'll be about JPY 2.1 trillion.

On the right-hand side, the oil price and others are quite high, and reflecting that, the operating cash flow before exploration is a three-year plan of JPY 2.85 trillion. We have about JPY 1.1 trillion of debt reduction and a cash flow, as shown. Regarding the use, as shown on the right-hand side, if you compare the two, I think it's very clear. JPY 1 trillion of operating cash flow increased, but we have shown how to use them. So the reduction in debt, we initially had JPY 500 billion, but we actually did JPY 1.1 trillion, and that's the expectation. For the shareholder returns, about JPY 200 billion was the expectation. We have JPY 525 billion as planned, and about doubled the size. Regarding the growth investment, JPY 1.1 trillion to 1.2 trillion, a slight increase, JPY 1.2 trillion.

So what we can say from here is when we set the midterm plan, we still had a lot of debt for Ichthys, and our priority was to reduce the debt as number one priority. Number two is the increase the shareholder return. Number three is the growth investment. Mostly, we are in line with this. So debt reduction and shareholder returns, we have actually doubled the amount, and that's how we are proceeding. So our financial soundness have become really strong at the end of 2024. At the end of March 2024, net interest bearing debt will be around JPY 1.3 trillion, D/E ratio 0.3 or so. As mentioned before, D/E ratio 0.3 to 0.5, we like to control in that range. So it's mostly in line when it comes to having a soundness of the financial, health.

So that is the capital allocation together with the midterm business plan. Next slide, please. Regarding the shareholder return, as you can see, for 2023, we have JPY 74 DPS and share buybacks of JPY 100 billion and total payout ratio of 52.5%. For this fiscal year, considering all the factors, the target for this year is slightly lower than last year. It's not like we don't have any soundness, so we like to increase the DPS, as you can see. So JPY 2 increase, a slight increase, but JPY 76 per share is set for this fiscal year. A total of above 40% total payout ratio. So between the DPS dividend and the total payout ratio, we like to consider a share buyback in between. So that's the plan. Next is capital efficiency. So having ROE stable, ROIC above WACC.

As you can see, the oil price and the exchange rate assumptions are shown for ROIC, 6.8%, and WACC is 6.6%, so a slight increase in ROIC. For ROE, about 8%. So this is a slight lower number. But because of the adjustments, we are not expecting an increase, so that's for today. Last page is ESG. We want to mention about the environment. So OGMP 2.0, this is for the reduction of the methane emission, and we want to have a reduction in a very accurate and transparency manner, that is based on the United Nations Environment Program. So that's the one thing. And then for the social side, we want to have female working employees more involvement in the business. And for the other governance area, we have conducted various events, including the board meetings in Abu Dhabi.

So we're slightly over the time, but that's all from me. Thank you.

Takayuki Ueda
President & CEO, INPEX Corporation

So allow me to explain about the consolidated financial result for INPEX ended December 31st, 2023. And so in the Q3, we have registered a large impairment for the Prelude, but we achieved JPY 1.3 trillion, JPY 370 billion of net income. And so this is probably the second largest number we have achieved, so $99 to 82 for oil. But this was a pretty good oil price, not too high, but I think it was a good level of the Brent price. Volatility was low, and the FX was JPY 141 . So this was also a tailwind for us. So we were fortunate in terms of external factors. And so JPY 1.3 trillion was net debt, and the 0.32 was the net D/E ratio.

This is towards the lower part of the demand. ROIC for ROE, as the president said, ROIC is in excess of WACC, as we have promised. Next is the net sales for oil and gas, for the Brent and the price came down. So the sales, the net sales, came down. In fact, a decline of JPY 170 billion. For gas, flat, but the volume increased. A couple of years ago, we had the excess maintenance shutdown. Last year, we didn't have that, so the sales volume increased as a consequence. And for the gas, the domestic and the international back and forth, there is a latent effect internationally, but because of that impact, domestic it was still high. So as a consequence, the sales were more or less flat.

On this side, JPY 461 billion, that was the result from two years ago, and this came to JPY 371.5 billion at the end of last fiscal year. So, JPY 89.5 billion of the profit decrease. And the reason can be broken down to business activity factors and one-off factors. And for business activity factors, essentially decrease in unit price has impact from the exchange rate. As I explained before, JPY 320 billion decrease for unit price, largely due to crude oil. FX JPY 124.5 billion change in FX. Next, the income tax decrease in crude oil. Abu Dhabi and Norway is where we saw the profit came down. In other words, where the income tax rate was high is where profit the came down. And so on a net basis, JPY 26.2 billion of business activity factor negatively.

For the one-off factors, the large impact was Prelude in the Q3. We took about JPY 60 billion of impairment, and minus JPY 27.7 billion year on year. And the GHG regulation, PRRT in Australia, taxation issues, and the Prelude, the production volume came down slightly as a way to impairment. Ichthys was under the same environment, but the production volume increased, and so we did not have to take impairment for Ichthys. So in total, JPY 27.7 million, and divestment between the year before and last year, and also the revaluation of financial assets. And so in total, JPY 63.2 billion of one-off factors ended up at JPY 371.5 billion. And this was the second high earnings in record. We consider this to be quite a good result. So next, the forecast for D/E ending December 31st, 2024.

As you know, from 2024, fiscal year 2024, we will be applying IFRS. And so, the end of December 2023 was based on J-GAAP, but December 2024 forecast, this is based on IFRS. And so the accounting standard has changed, as the CEO has explained. The oil price assumption is $73, 138 yen to a dollar for FX rate. And we won't have ordinary profit, but we're expecting JPY 330 billion net profit. JPY 330 billion yen, well, two years ago, the highest, last year was the second highest, so this will be the third highest number on record.

Daisuke Yamada
Senior Managing Executive Officer, Senior Vice President, Finance & Accounting, INPEX Corporation

First, this is based on J-GAAP. We had 337.1515 billion, but we have not closed the year yet. So today, based on the assumptions, most probably it'll be JPY 330 billion, and that is the current expectation. And from that 330, if you subtract 371, the difference, the increase in decrease should be zero. And for the external factors or the market factors, business activities factors, and others are shown. For the market factors, oil price will be $73 or so. And if you look at the past 10-year oil price is about $60 and above. So we believe that will be the range. And for the forex, 138 is quite depreciation. Today, it's quite depreciated, so we think this might be conservative, but in total, this is the market factor. And for the business activities factor, we have the project-related.

For domestic production is declining. That's one impact. And for the exploration expense around Ichthys, and also, as I explained, Bonaparte CCS, about JPY 19 billion of increase. And then for the hydrogen, ammonia, R&D, we have JPY 20 billion for the p for these explorations, for these expenditures. And then for the others, we have JPY 40 billion tax-related expenses, and we will have tax-effective accounting. So JPY 55 billion or so is the one-time amount. And this between JPY 53 billion and JPY 30 billion is because of the absence of the impairment from two years ago, and these are the impact for this fiscal year. And the sensitivity of oil price and the forex, for the oil price, with the $1 fluctuation, is about JPY + 6 billion. And for the forex, with the 1 yen depreciation, about JPY 2.4 billion positive impact.

When it becomes CFS, there'll be an impact as shown. Regarding the cash flow for 2024, December, please look at this number. First operating cash flow before exploration is JPY 700. Then for the investment, the investment cash flow, we have this, total, JPY 1,262. But, if you look at the investments, there's growth investment and others. For the growth investment, the investment in oil and gas or net zero. And for the investment cash flow, we have the growth and others, investment, marketable securities, purchase, and others. So the investment cash flow may seem to be declining, but this is because of the U.S. bond, selling of U.S. bond. We'll be using that cash for the growth investment. So, JPY 300 billion to 500 billion is actual investment. The leverage is going down quite well. So, these are quite aggressive plans we have today.

If you look at the breakdown, investment development expenditure, we have oil and gas at JPY 994 billion, and then development expenditure JPY 191.7 billion. Net zero may seem low, but there's a budget or there's a magic, because of the classification. In the JPY 71 billion, Bonaparte is included in that several tens of billions of yen, and also the blue hydrogen and other commissioning. These are both tens of billions. So the methanation, blue hydrogen, those net zero investments are included. And Bonaparte CCS, net zero, is also included. So if that is about JPY 10 billion, it's about JPY 550 billion in total. So as shown in the midterm plan, if also fuel and the net zero, having us striking a good balance, that is how we're going to spend in 2024.

Free cash flow we'll have JPY 400 billion, and the final amount will be JPY 200 billion of cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year. So that's ROIC by segment. This is 2023, December 2023, which ended. This side is the actual forecast for 2024. As disclosed, segment on the red line left-hand side, the oil and gas domestic, Minami-Nagaoka, Okinawa, etc. Then we have the Ichthys, oil and gas overseas, and then others are included, Prelude and others. In the others, we have the renewable energy and hydrogen and the global energy trading businesses. For the consolidated number, ROIC for 2023, 8.7 was the number as mentioned, but for this year, ROIC is 6.8. Even though it's 6.8, WACC is 6.6. So slightly above WACC, and that is the current budget for ROIC.

The consolidated amount after adjustment is shown. This is NOPAT, so impairments are excluded. So it's the denominator of ROIC. And as you can see, based on the budget this year, and this is the numerator of ROIC, but actually, it's mostly for Ichthys. 6.78 is the Ichthys, so it's mostly equivalent to the level of Ichthys. So 8.5 for domestic. The Ichthys excluded, others overseas is 10.7 as it was the case last year. It is still unprofitable for the project, and this is still unprofitable, but it will be jumping up going forward. And then for hydrogen and CCUS, the amount is zero, but as mentioned, these are all R&D expenditure, so not consolidated under ROIC. So this is what we have disclosed as the level of ROIC today. So that's all for me. Thank you very much.

Takayuki Ueda
President & CEO, INPEX Corporation

So, we would now like to receive questions. We will first take questions from the venue. Then after that, we will take questions from Zoom participants. We ask that you only ask two questions at a time. And so we'd like to invite questions from the floor to begin with. If you're participating in Zoom, please use the raise hand function. And if the the MC designates you, then please state your name as well as your company name before asking your questions. So the person in the front row to ask that, please ask your question.

Speaker 3

To begin with, apart from the market condition, if you look at the short-term mid-term span for you to increase profitability, in other words, your self effort. And in terms of guidance, so the basic the earnings the factors, something that enables you to raise the base. What are some of the own initiative that you're able to implement to achieve that based on your view, Mr. Ueda?

Ichthys, I'm sure you're trying to achieve high production volume. So probably the first thing is to achieve stable production at a high level. But apart from that, reducing OPEX for Ichthys, lowering the OPEX of Ichthys and other projects. In the case of Abu Dhabi, based on the current production volume, I think there are political matters behind there. So but inclusive of Block 4 as well, over the medium term, is there any potential project that may give upside? And so something that you can do on your own to increase the profitability. So that's the first question that I wanted to ask. The second question is that I wanted to ask about shareholder returns.

At the end of this fiscal year, based on the financial position that you are at and the cash flow for this fiscal year, in view of those factors, what is your consideration in regards to your shareholder returns? That D/E ratio is probably at a lower end of the range now. So on a cash flow basis, I think you will have great ability to provide returns to the shareholders now. I wanted to re-confirm that, so more than 40% payout. So in that regard, if you think about a stronger financial position, can we consider that you have more leeway to be able to provide greater returns to the shareholders? And in doing so, what would be the basis for making your judgment?

So the operating cash flow that you're generating in 2024, is that what you're going to use as the basis, or are you going to look at the balance sheet as to where that improves to? And any excess that you may have, you intend to provide that as a return to the shareholders? I wanted to get a feel of your thinking in this regard. On page 30 of the presentation material, the 2024 operating cash flow and the cash allocation I think you give on a single-year base. And the JPY 714 billion is what you have as expected there for the operating cash flow. And on the right, you can see the breakdown. And probably 40% is what you're using in terms of the PBR ratio, but plus alpha.

And then the operating cash flow on the left, if you think of, are you going to use that as a thinking? So what you talked about, the, the U.S. Treasury bond, the sales, so are you going to use that as a potential means to, step up, the returns with us? If you could share with us, your thoughts, in regards to the returns at this point in time. Thank you.

Takayuki Ueda
President & CEO, INPEX Corporation

Thank you for your question. Please allow me to respond to this question. In regards to your first question, for medium term, sorry, so short-term to the medium term, how are we going to increase, ability to generate, greater profit? Yes, that is one of the key points for us.

Over the long term, well, I'm not sure whether we call it, you know, long-term, but once we start the production from our Abadi, then that will change the earning structure. But that is still long in the future. So, over a short-term to medium term, how are we going to increase ability to generate greater profit? And this is a very important issue for myself as well as for the company. But having said that, it's not the case that there is a magic that I can use. But of course, one thing that we can do is Ichthys. And Ichthys, the profit contribution, it's something to at the range of 70% or even 80% at times. But to achieving stable the production this year, we want to achieve 9.3 million tons. And that will be the basis for enhancing our profitability.

Maybe over medium term, Abu Dhabi, of course, is a factor. Abu Dhabi overall, we're the 4 million BOE/d is to be increased to 5 million BOE/d. And so we are participating in this Abu Dhabi initiative through Lower and Upper Zakum. And so this type of production increase plans is likely to be fully implemented. So low-cost production is possible in Abu Dhabi. And so that could potentially contribute towards increasing our profitability. But there is also a different move: the joint production decline by OPEC. But even should that occur, we want to make sure that our financial position will be such that we will be able to generate greater profitability and work towards enhancing ability to generate stable profit. And furthermore, when we look at the others, can we just rely on organic growth?

That's one discussion point. For us to achieve growth, we probably should look at organic growth as well as an M&A. We've been saying that we're going to use both means. But having said that, when it comes to M&A, there needs to be opportunities. So sometimes you can execute that. But that will also be taken into consideration. And in regards to these initiatives, we will engage in M&A, M&As, if that will contribute growth, a new opportunity presents. In terms of returns, do we have some extra room, or is it a cash flow basis? Is it a balance sheet basis? We are always asked that. We have been saying that more than 40% of profit in terms of payout ratio over the medium term that we will have improved. And so we have been adopting the cumulative payout approach.

and we have raised the dividend on that basis. But in regards to dividend next year onwards, that will be considered as part of the next medium-term management plan. And for this year, the basis will be the P&L, which probably will mean that the net income and commitment is more than 40%. That is what we have said for medium-term plan. And last fiscal year, we achieved 53% or more of the total return ratio on a cash flow basis, and for 2023, JPY 1 trillion; this year, at $73 the Brent, JPY 700 billion of cash flow can be expected. And if we use that as a basis, then the ability to make shareholder return is going to be still reasonable. But of course, it would depend on the oil price going forward, and what will happen to the FX going forward.

But at midway through the year or towards the year, as to what type of return can we achieve, from P&L perspective, from the cash flow perspective, we'll take both of those factors into consideration and make it our decision.

Speaker 3

I have two questions. Number one, for the previous year, December 2023, the upshooting factors, can you please explain them? Oil price in the forex was slightly conservative, so we believe that's the main factor. But the expense from last year to this year, or the overshooting of JPY 37 billion or so, can you please explain the factors behind the driver? So that's number one.

And the second question, for the new fiscal year, December 2024, the one-off factor, can you please explain them once again? So as explained on page 20, you explained briefly. But out of this, JPY + 10 billion and JPY + 40 billion, these are the one-off factor for this year. And then on the next 13 and four, these are the absence from last year. So this time, there's a one-off of about JPY 5 billion or JPY 50 billion. Is that going to be the case? So can you please explain the breakdown? Thank you.

Daisuke Yamada
Senior Managing Executive Officer, Senior Vice President, Finance & Accounting, INPEX Corporation

Thank you for the question. For December 2023, can we show the step-by-step chart, waterfall chart of the previous year? So you want to know the one-off factor of this fiscal year? The first question is for the previous fiscal year, December 2023. So compared to the plan, you had some uptrend or upshooting situation. So can you please explain that? So, 270 against the actual of JPY 300 billion or more. So it's about JPY 100 billion or more increase. So the reason behind that is, number one, the oil and the forex assumption was favorable more than expectation. So that's about JPY 80 billion or so, which increased, pushed up the number. So that's about JPY 350 billion. And for the remaining JPY 200 billion, in December 2023, initial plan actually had a clean, decarbonization cost of Ichthys.

350 billion of negative impact was factored initially. This is GHG emission regulations and PRRT. So as a result, we had some assumption of the impairment of the fixed cost, fixed assets. But as explained, for Ichthys, we had an increase in production and cash flow. So we did not have that JPY 350 billion of expenditure. So it was a positive JPY 350 billion. On the other hand, Prelude impairment was something we did not factor in. So that was a negative factor.

Then with Ichthys, JPY 350 billion was a positive factor. And we had the decommissioning and others minus JPY 60 billion. And those are all included as divestment. So some assets at disposal in Europe and also the final assets decision for Indonesia. And then we also had the tax effect accounting or tax effect. So initially was JPY 3 billion as an assumption, but it was about JPY 2 billion of effect.

And then other scheduling because of the tax effect, we had some increase in the profit. So the main factor is the external or the market factor. And the rest is the divestment and the tax effects. And also the Ichthys impairment did not occur. On the negative side, we had the Prelude impairment. So on the net, we had about JPY 100 billion of increase on the net. And then for December 2024, can we show the waterfall chart? The one-off factor, as you mentioned, divestment-related JPY 100 or 10 billion. And by selling some of the interests, we had some gains. We cannot talk about exact project name. And then JPY 40 billion is also tax effect. Corporate structure changes as one. And the losses around the exit of the project, exiting projects. So in total, we had some increase in factor as one-off.

Divestment-related, we have a counterpart. For the tax effect, we have our accounting accountants. We don't know whether it will be the same. But that's how much we are expecting today. About JPY 50 billion or so is included in the JPY 300 billion or so. There is some buffer. Then on the hand, other hand, the oil and the forex: $73 is the assumption and 138 yen, $2. There might be some buffer there as well. If you look at our way of budgeting as well as the actual result, this is the relationship. The one-off, the external factor and the one-off factor being absent. That's matching. Then on the other hand, we have the unexpected impairment might happen. JPY 300-330 billion is also including some conservative views of forex. But not only that.

If you include the one-off factor, it's quite a challenging number. So that is the current understanding.

Speaker 3

The first question is related to page 10. This is the progress of cash allocation for the medium-term three years. And if it is at $70, JPY 2.1 trillion operating cash flow before exploration on the right, JPY 2.85 trillion operating cash flow, the difference between the two, how are we to understand this, and because of different oil price and FX and also the first year of IFRS, these factors explain everything? Or if there are other the upside in practice, whether it be external and internal. So that's the first question that I wanted to ask. Second is regarding Abadi, the marketing situation. Could you update us on the situation there? And the Japanese electricity and gas utilities, I don't think they want to enter into a long-term contract. I think that's been an issue for you. But has there been change there?

But in the case of Abadi, you probably are not just selling the gas to Japanese customers. We probably are looking towards other Asian countries. So is it they are advancing better than you expecting or not as well as you expecting?

Takayuki Ueda
President & CEO, INPEX Corporation

So allow me to respond to your first question, from 2023 to 2024. $70, on the right, the different oil price and FX. And so, reconciling to JPY 2.8 trillion versus what, but the accounting standard will change the IFRS. But only change will be in P&L. Cash flow itself will not change. And so JPY 1.8 trillion to 2.8 trillion, the difference between the two, purely is FX and oil price. It's just pure based on that. And also, in terms of, of course, the production volume, that will have that impact as well. Different production volume, FX and Brent, accounting, the their standard change is not included here.

We haven't, you know, given a breakdown of the FX, the oil price and the volume. But if you require, we can provide that now. Abadi, the update with the second question. I don't know whether you are there or not. But, Abadi marketing, we have been doing this from the past. And so, in Indonesia or in other Asian countries or Japan, we have already been speaking with potential buyers. And on a non-binding basis, we have already entered into LOIs. Now, not that it is ambiguous. But, the kind of volume that they want to buy. And that volume is described on a non-binding basis. And, if we actually do a sum of all this, it's more than the Abadi production volume.

So, the challenge going forward is, together with FEED and so forth, the non-binding LOI together with Pertamina and PETRONAS, we need to convert that into a binding purchase agreement. So that's the activity that we need to engage going forward. And the Japanese buyers, what are they thinking right now? The Japanese buyers, the gas buyers, they are quite cautious in entering into long-term contract. And I'd expect them to maintain that position for Abadi as well. But recently, the LNG is going to play a quite significant role in the transitional period. I think that's the thinking that is shared more widely. And so, maybe the buyers in Japan may take a bit different perspective going forward. Asia quite proactive. We have engaged in various discussions already.

Now, Indonesia, we are partnering with Pertamina, which is the Indonesian National Oil Company. And PETRONAS, which is a Malaysian, the National Oil Company. Pertamina, underneath, their operation, has a gas, the sales company. They also have electricity, the utility as well. So Abadi, and, PETRONAS is also engaging in the gas sales quite significantly. So inclusive of Japan, the basic thinking is to produce in Asia and to consume in Asia. And so it's local production for local, consumption. That is, the position in all parts of this Abadi project given the, the global economy, given the geopolitical risk, being high right now. And so, and the, the Suez Canal issue, there are various issues. So to produce in Asia and to sell in Asia, there is a high interest towards this type of approach, right now. So marketing itself, is essentially activities for us going forward.

But to give you an update, I can say that interest has increased quite significantly. Thank you. And non-binding LOI duration, is it going to be like 15 years like with the Ichthys? Is that what is used? Well, it does differ from the counterpart. But basically, it's they're based on long-term contract. And without a long-term contract, finance will be difficult. So we are looking at contract in excess of 10 years.

Speaker 3

That was very clear. Thank you very much.

Two questions, please. Number one is regarding Ichthys expenditure. At this time, you will have an increase. Along with this, the ROIC is going to go down to 6.8% and 6.7%. And I'm sure you're not satisfied with this level. On the other hand, the ROIC recovery, we believe most probably that will come from reduction in expenditure, excluding the oil and the forex. But regarding that reduction of the expenditure, what is your view? Or if you're going to increase the expenditure around exploration this year, what is your view on reducing other costs? And the second, the net production is 7 million barrels. And 64.2 is this year. So it's slightly undershooting. This 700,000 BOE/d in the next midterm plan, I think you're also targeting. But M&A and those are difficult.

So taking a bold step and organically increase is not going to achieve 700,000 BOE/d. So especially 700,000 BOE/d is how you're thinking at this moment. Thank you.

Daisuke Yamada
Senior Managing Executive Officer, Senior Vice President, Finance & Accounting, INPEX Corporation

So regarding Ichthys, I'd like to explain and answer a question. Regarding Ichthys, in 2023, the actual in 2023, we have a net profit of JPY 360.5 billion. And based on our IFRS, IFRS, and, and JPY 270 billion for this year. So about the drop of JPY 80 billion or so. The reason is number one, oil and forex, $83 to 73 and 141 to 138 yen to dollar. So there's about JPY 60 billion of decline with external factor. And for the sales volume, 9.7 million is the expectation this year. But it's slightly declining. So not so much increase or decrease for the sales volume. Therefore, for 2023 actual and the forecast 2024, the large difference is the external factor.

As a result, the profit after adjustments because of the drop in profit, there's progress. But ROIC will be going down. Therefore, when it comes to how to increase ROIC with Ichthys going forward, excluding the forex and the oil price, how to reduce the cost is number one. And also regarding the sales volume, 9.3 is the current maximum. So maybe having another tie-in or backfill. So those are the factors. But we cannot expect so much. So the risk is really up to cost reduction. On the other hand, we have CCS, Bonaparte included. And also drilling another oil well. How to reduce the cost is really the question. And also having a good balance overall on the OPEX. So that's the question. And talking about ROIC, as explained, 6.8% is the current number. So mostly, I'm driven by Ichthys today.

So how to improve Ichthys is really going to be the key to increase the ROIC of our company. So within Ichthys, we like to improve looking at the content and also improve the profitability of Ichthys. And that's how I would like to increase and find ways to increase ROIC. So for ROIC, we're still working progress today. So how to really make sure this plan is put into action and achieved. So how to lead this into different profit structure as a company is going to be the key going forward. Thank you. And for the latter half of your question, I have to explain 700,000 barrels per day. So six about, there's about shortage of 60,000 BOE/d. There are two main factors. Number one is the portfolio improvement and also the management efficiency. We have the strategy. So divestment in Africa and others.

There's some shortage of production volume. Also because of the coordinated drop production cut in Abu Dhabi. So these are the uncontrollable area. On the other hand, if we just achieve the production, would that allow achieving the number? But compared to the past, we have this power volume strategy. So rather than 700,000, we want to increase the corporate value regardless of the production. And what is the portfolio for that? Or what is the growth strategy, investments? So those are the new vision updates we have to make. Also within the midterm plan, we are considering these. So we'd like to announce this at the beginning of next year and revise the vision or have a new midterm plan. And that's when we would like to explain in detail. So regarding the volume, we are slightly going to be undershooting. And that's the current expectation.

We'd like to increase the corporate value. That's the strategy we are working on today.

Takayuki Ueda
President & CEO, INPEX Corporation

[Foreign language]

Thank you very much.

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